Undersøgelse af NATO PA udført i 2014
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Rapport del 1 om undersøgelse af NATO PA udført i 2014.docx
https://www.ft.dk/samling/20131/almdel/NPA/bilag/5/1337176.pdf
PricewaterhouseCoopers, Société coopérative, 400 Route d’Esch, B.P. 1443, L-1014 Luxembourg T : +352 494848 1, F : +352 494848 2900, www.pwc.lu Cabinet de révision agréé. Expert-comptable (autorisation gouvernementale n°10028256) R.C.S. Luxembourg B 65 477 - TVA LU25482518 Quantitative research among members of the NPA at the General Assembly in Dubrovnik 11-14 October 2013 Final Report Market Research Institute November 2013 NATO's Parlamentariske Forsamling 2013-14 NPA Alm.del Bilag 5 Offentligt (01) Contents Executive Summary........................................................... 1 Main Findings ...................................................................3 NATO’s Reputation.......................................................................................................3 Communication............................................................................................................. 7 NATO Post 2014...........................................................................................................15 The Parliamentary Assembly.......................................................................................17 Conclusions & Recommendations.................................... 19 Appendix I.......................................................................20 Appendix II......................................................................25 1 Executive Summary NATO has commissioned PwC to carry out a qualitative assessment that evaluates the perceptions of parliamentarians who attended the Annual Session of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly (NPA) held in Dubrovnik, Croatia, 11-14 October 2013. In particular, NATO aims to ascertain the following: NATO’s reputation among delegates and the general public; The effectiveness of NATO’s communication with delegates and the general public; Parliamentarians’ views regarding the purpose of NATO post 2014, including defense spending; The perception delegates have about the NPA in Dubrovnik. For this study, PwC gathered the views of 29 parliamentarians via face-to-face interviews and 50 parliamentarians via a paper questionnaire distributed during the NPA session in Dubrovnik. These interviews, combined, represent the answers of 30.9% of the parliamentarians who attended the session. Articulate a Clear Mission The majority of parliamentarians from member countries have a highly favorable perception of NATO, but they believe citizens in their countries are more mitigated. To improve the status quo, parliamentarians overwhelmingly suggest the use of media. Specifically, the media should be used to articulate the organization’s mission and objectives, to highlight its achievements and inform the public about the benefits it offers. “NATO needs to project a clearer mission,” said one delegate. “After the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War, NATO must focus on more than justifying its existence.” Raise Awareness Member parliamentarians said the majority of people in their countries have heard of NATO, but only a minority understands what NATO does. Those from non- member countries said few people are acquainted with NATO. To enhance public awareness, the vast majority of both groups believes NATO should invest more in communication, specifically through the use of media, educational programs, youth outreach, social media and local ambassadors. Define Priorities With regard to the effect of the end of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) operation will have on the organization, most member country delegates agree that “NATO needs this break to rest and recuperate.” As one delegate said, “exits are as important as entries.” However, although ending the ISAF operation is considered a positive change for NATO, member parliamentarians believe combating terrorism should be the main priority for the Alliance in the future. Cyber security (in conjunction with military Reputation Communication Purpose “Perception of NATO is linked to the Cold War. A transformation is needed.” “NATO should use new communication technologies, the more advanced the better.” “We cannot leave Afghanistan in one day—it should be a transition. We need to help the country after 2014.” 2 operations) is also perceived as a key strategic priority for NATO in the coming years. Additionally, all non-member parliamentarians interviewed feel NATO should maintain a presence in Afghanistan. “They should organize some permanent cooperation to help local authorities,” said one delegate, who pointed out the country’s poverty and lack of structure. “It would not be good to just leave.” Integration of the Assembly The majority of parliamentarians, both from member and non-member countries said that they will integrate the content of what they learned at the Dubrovnik Parliamentary Assembly into their work when they returned home. About half said they always do this, and the other half said they sometimes do so. Very few rarely apply the information gathered at the assembly to their work. Overall, the majority of parliamentarians were very satisfied with the NPA in Dubrovnik. Additionally, there is a complete consensus on satisfaction regarding the timeframe of the closing session, the panels and the reports discussion. All were deemed to have been just right. The majority of parliamentarians said that they will integrate the content of the NPA into their work when they return to their countries. Conclusions Overall, parliamentarians have a very high view of NATO. That said, they seem to be convinced that the citizens in their countries do not share that perspective because they do not know enough about the Alliance to appreciate its value. To reach broader demographics, NATO should use an array of media ranging from radio to the internet to press releases and television. Also, establishing representatives in individual countries would give an authenticity and immediacy to NATO communication and would bring the organization into closer proximity with “real people.” Although the year 2014 will bring the end of the ISAF operation, parliamentarians do not see this as a revolutionary change. In retrospect, people view NATO’s involvement in Afghanistan as a positive experience that has borne fruit. In light of this, the post 2014 period should be seen as an opportunity to reflect on the past decade and consider what capabilities acquired in Afghanistan can be deployed in future missions. That said, NATO continues to be vital to ensuring the collective defense. Terrorism, cyber terrorism and future conflicts (e.g. Syria) should remain high on the agenda. NPA The majority of parliamentarians said they will integrate the content of what they learned at the PA into their work. 3 Main Findings NATO’s Reputation NATO as a Peace-Keeping Entity Member Countries: NATO fulfils its duty to maintain peace, to a large extent. Just over half of the parliamentarians from member countries think that NATO totally fulfils its duty to maintain peace, and another 40% said it somewhat fulfils its duty. Only one parliamentarian thinks that NATO is not at all useful. Most parliamentarians declared that citizens of their country share their opinions. In a minority of cases, parliamentarians consider the citizens of their country to be more critical than they are (Belgium, Germany and Spain, for instance). Those who answered that NATO totally fulfils its duty to maintain peace described NATO as “a very powerful organization” and “a strong union among like-minded people that has the capabilities and capacity of engagement to keep the peace.” They also feel the organization is useful in the prevention of conflicts. However, regardless of these opinions, all participants offered recommendations on how NATO could do a better job of maintaining peace. Among their suggestions, a series of common suggestions emerged: Communication towards citizens should be improved in a way that convinces people of NATO’s usefulness and relevance to them. An enhanced image of NATO would enable the organization to better fulfil its duty. For instance, favourable communication could amplify national leaders’ ability to raise funds for defense. Because NATO cannot and should not intervene in every global conflict, it should define “zones of intervention”. Furthermore, the organization should not decide to intervene solely on the basis of moral or legal considerations, but rather on the more practical basis of efficiency. NATO should focus more on the development of its partnerships and cooperation with non-member countries. NATO should work more on conflict prevention. In particular, it should emphasize political solutions (through increased dialogue), not only military solutions, to current problems. Decisions should be made faster and more easily. On this point, Syria was mentioned as an example of inefficient decision making processes. NATO should redefine itself. The organization made sense during the Cold War, but now it needs a new “strategic concept”. People have moved beyond the idea of NATO as a necessary entity, which reflects negatively on the organization’s image. This sentiment was mentioned mostly by Western Europeans. NATO needs to increase its staff, budget and logistics. As a result, some countries should provide more support. 4 Non-Member Countries: NATO partially fulfils its duty to maintain peace. One-quarter of the delegates said that NATO totally fulfils its duty to maintain peace, while the remaining three-fourths said it somewhat fulfils this duty. The parliamentarian from Switzerland said that, in his country, NATO is seen as a war organization, not as a peace keeping organization. “The Swiss are very critical toward NATO,” he said. The parliamentarian from Afghanistan said that NATO “brought a good security system” to the country, but its mistakes have delayed operations and, after almost 12 years, the mission has not been accomplished.” Although the parliamentarian from Bosnia and Herzegovina said that NATO only somewhat fulfils its mission, he added, “more than 60% are faithful to NATO and the stability it provides.” Parliamentarians from non-member countries offered the following recommendations on how NATO could do a better job of maintaining peace: “NATO should deal strongly and broadly with neighbouring countries, such as Pakistan,” said the parliamentarian from Afghanistan. “If we don't stop terrorism at the root (in Pakistan), Afghanistan will never be safe”; NATO should maintain an open-door policy through new memberships (Balkans and Georgia). “If Georgia were a member country,” said the parliamentarian from Georgia, “NATO would not have 80% support, but 100% support”. Parliamentarians’ Perceptions of NATO Member Countries: Most parliamentarians say NATO plays an essential role in ensuring the collective defense of member countries. Three-quarters of delegates and more than half of their political parties have a very favorable opinion of the NATO, while they believe that only one-fourth of the citizens in their countries share this view. According to parliamentarians, citizens tend to have only a somewhat favorable opinion of NATO. Attitudes about NATO, in general, correlate strongly to perceptions regarding NATO’s role in ensuring the collective defense of its member states. This is true both for delegates and their national political parties, who see NATO’s role as essential. However, parliamentarians declared that citizens of their countries are less optimistic, reporting that half of them regard the role of NATO on this matter only as somewhat important. The vast majority of respondents (85%) see NATO as a crucial player on the global stage. One parliamentarian echoed this perception by saying, “It is the only organization with real power, capabilities and rules of engagement that can allow a true and effective intervention.” Additionally, almost all of the parliamentarians interviewed believe that NATO represents the needs of its member nations well (49%) or at least partially (49%). On this question, the most positive answers were given by Conservatives and the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats, while Socialists predominately think that the Alliance only partially represents the countries’ needs. 5 NATO is clearly considered the most useful organization in ensuring international peace and stability. In fact, NATO ranks first in front of other supranational institutions, such as the United Nations, the EU institutions, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the Council of Europe. Non-member countries: More than half of Parliamentarians say NATO plays an essential role in ensuring the collective defense of member states. Only half of the delegates from non-member countries have a very favourable perception of NATO, while the remainder are somewhat favourable or neutral. They feel that this trend is also valid for the citizens and political parties in their countries. The role of NATO as an essential actor in ensuring the collective defense is perceived as such by the majority of the delegates. More than half of non-member delegates believe that NATO plays a crucial role on the global stage—compared with their more optimistic counterparts from member countries. The exception is non-member delegates from the Liberal party, who share the optimism of their member country counterparts. That said, only half of non-member delegates think the national parties and citizens in their countries agree. There is a good alignment on the fact that NATO represents the needs of its member nations well or at least partially. This view is strongly supported by Conservatives and Liberals—all agreed that needs are well represented. But only half of the Socialists interviewed share this opinion. Public Perceptions of NATO Member Countries: NATO is well known, but few understand what NATO actually does. Parliamentarians said the majority of people in their countries have heard of NATO, but only a minority understand what NATO actually does. Countries where citizens cannot correctly identify NATO include: Italy, France and Bulgaria. In Italy and France, most people have only heard about NATO in the context of the Cold War. Knowledge of NATO is age-specific: younger generations know less about NATO than older generations do. As one delegate said, “Young people have difficulty understanding the necessity of NATO.” In terms of understanding what NATO does, results vary. Most of the parliamentarians said that the citizens in their countries know only very partially what NATO does. For instance, in France and the UK, according to delegates, citizens do not know what the acronym NATO stands for or who the member countries are. In general, delegates said that their citizens have a vague idea of what NATO is, but nothing precise. Citizens tend to confuse it with other organizations (ISAF, for instance, in the UK). NATO is also perceived differently in varying countries depending on national history. In Portugal, NATO is linked to democracy. In Lithuania, the presence of NATO within the country has contributed to a favourable opinion held by its citizens. In France and Germany, NATO has an old image linked to the Cold War and people are not interested in the present-day NATO. Finally, it seems that Eastern Europe has a more informed view of NATO than Western Europe does. The history of these countries could explain this disparity. 6 Non-Member Countries: NATO is not well known Countries where citizens cannot correctly identify NATO include Afghanistan and Switzerland. Only one parliamentarian, from Bosnia, said that a majority of the people in his country are familiar with NATO. “We have different attitudes depending on the geographical area,” he added. “But we need NATO and the Federation supports NATO. We think NATO is our future.” In Afghanistan, “all NATO soldiers are perceived as American” and a minority understands NATO as an international force. “Only educated people know NATO,” the parliamentarian said. In Switzerland, a minority has heard of NATO. Those familiar with NATO see it as a war organization and are not familiar with its peace keeping missions. According to the parliamentarian interviewed, “The Swiss are proud to be neutral”. A parliamentarian from the Republic of Moldova estimated that 40% of the people in his country know NATO as a military institution and perceive it in contrast to the Russian Federation. To improve the perception people have of NATO, parliamentarians, both member and non-member, overwhelmingly suggest the use of media. Specifically, the media should be used to articulate the organization’s mission and objectives, to highlight its achievements and inform the public about the benefits it offers. “NATO needs to project a clearer mission,” said one delegate. “After the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War, NATO focuses only on justifying its existence.” Other suggestions included use of social media, involvement in universities and schools (including seminars for teachers), limiting participation in missions outside of member areas. 7 Communication Enhancing Public Awareness Member Countries: Communication is key to enhancing public awareness about NATO. A large majority of respondents believe that NATO should invest more in communication. Several areas of improvement were suggested: Most delegates think NATO should be more present in the mass media, such as TV, radio and the press as most people are in tune with these channels. Documentaries and commercials are also channels to reach people and convince them of NATO’s importance. In reaching out to the younger generation, NATO should use the internet, social media and the most innovative technologies. To reach the world’s youth and become popular with them, NATO should also develop more partnerships with universities, and be more present in the job market. Some participants even suggested NATO should become part of national school programs in order to reach younger demographics. Messages should be clear, short and simple. NATO “should speak to the hearts of people.” A majority of delegates said being local is crucial: communication should not come only from Brussels, but needs to be “outsourced” nationally. To this end, NATO should develop its relations with national representatives. One parliamentarian suggested “a national representative in every country, as people listen to them and trust them more.” In terms of content, NATO should communicate its mission, emphasize its political role (not only its military role) and talk more about its efforts to secure human rights. Because NATO is not considered a necessity (mainly in Western Europe: France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands), this would demonstrate its relevance to people. A minority said that NATO should change its behaviour in order to increase awareness. For instance, two delegates think NATO should be more active not only by putting more effort into conflict prevention, but also by increasing its intervention in humanitarian disasters. Three delegates mentioned that NATO “does not always tell the truth” and one of them simply said that NATO should be “more frank, more open and fairer.” Non-Member Countries: Solutions for enhanced public awareness involved action more than communication. While delegates from non-member countries agree that communication efforts are essential to improving public awareness of NATO, many suggested concrete action points, as well: In the Republic of Moldova, there are NATO Training Centres (e.g. the Pro Marshall Centre) where NGOs meet—they are open to everyone. More of these could be established. Also, the TV channel "Freedom Europe" explains a lot about 8 Europe and NATO; more of these types of channels could inform the public about NATO. With respect to Afghanistan, NATO should take into account the fact that most people are not well educated. According to the parliamentarian interviewed, 85% of men there are not educated. Therefore, a focus on local education would make a big difference. For instance, “If the mullah can explain the role of NATO, people will understand—they see the mullah 5 times a day.” This delegate suggested a program where NATO supports local mullahs through protection and moderate funding in order to gain their loyalty. “It is a long process,” he said. “It needs people and time, but it works. With this incentive, they will be loyal to the government. Mullahs would say, ‘God save the international soldiers.’” According to the Swiss parliamentarian, NATO should provide more information and implement discussions in Switzerland. The Alliance should also “get more resources and money to be able to ensure that missions will have a good end.” Communication with Parliamentarians Parliamentarians were asked to evaluate NATO’s communication with them in terms of frequency, quality, scope and transparency. They answered using a scale of 1 to 10, 1 being not well at all and 10 being very well. Member Countries: Communication is overall satisfactory. Frequency Overall, parliamentarians from member countries are moderately satisfied (5.3) with NATO’s frequency of communication with them, although answers differ significantly among members. Liberals and Socialists are slightly more satisfied with the frequency of communication than are Conservatives. Men are more satisfied than women with the frequency of communication. And, with respect to age, parliamentarians 35-65 years old are more satisfied than the youngest (under 35) and the oldest (over 65) delegates. Quality Overall, parliamentarians rated the quality of communication directed toward them at a sufficient level (6.1). Again, Liberals and Socialists offered higher scores than Conservatives did. Satisfaction with the quality of the content is highest for intermediate age parliamentarians (35-49 years) and older parliamentarians (over 65 years). Scope For the delegates, the scope of the content is sufficient (6.0). Once again, Liberals and Socialists offered higher scores than Conservatives did. Women are more satisfied than men with the scope of content. Finally, satisfaction with the scope of the content corresponds to age: the intermediate (35-49 years) and oldest (over 60 years) age groups are the ones who most appreciate the work of NATO in this context. Transparency Delegates are somewhat satisfied with the transparency of communication (5.6). Liberals are, as usual, are more satisfied than other political groups. This time, they are followed by Conservatives and Socialists. Men are more satisfied than women, however the difference is minimal. Satisfaction with the transparency of 9 communication corresponds with age: the younger the delegate, the less satisfied he/she is. Non-Member Countries: Satisfaction level is slightly higher than for member countries. Frequency Parliamentarians from non-member countries gave a satisfactory rating to NATO regarding the frequency of communication to them. This score was slightly higher than that of member country respondents (6.6). Looking at the breakdown by political parties, Socialists attributed the highest score. Interestingly, with concern to age, the frequency of NATO communication was given the highest rating by younger parliamentarians (under 35) and the score decreased with age. Those over 65 years old gave the lowest score. Quality According to respondents from non-member countries, there is an overall satisfaction with the quality of the content of NATO communications (7.1). Also, Liberals and Socialists attributed high scores. However, Socialists of non-member countries are more satisfied than their counterparts in member countries. This time, satisfaction declined with age—the “under 35” category is the most satisfied. Scope The scope of NATO’s communication content is sufficient, according to parliamentarians from non-member countries. They gave the Alliance a higher score in this area than delegates from member countries did (6.6). Socialists are among the most satisfied with the scope of NATO’s communication. The youngest age group (under 35 years) gave NATO the highest score in this area. Transparency Parliamentarians from non-member countries are satisfied with the transparency of the communication they receive from NATO. In fact, they assigned noticeably higher scores than the ones given by delegates from member countries (7.3). Liberals and Socialists tend to have a high opinion of NATO’s transparency in communication. All of the age categories gave NATO high scores in this area with the exception of the over 65 group, who gave a score of 4.0 in strong disagreement. Communication with the General Public Parliamentarians were asked to rate NATO’s communication with the general public in terms of frequency, quality, scope and transparency. They answered using a scale of 1 to 10, 1 being not well at all and 10 being very well. Member Countries: There is room for improvement in terms of communication with the general public. Frequency In general, respondents feel that NATO’s frequency of communication with the general public is below average (4.4). Liberals rank NATO’s communication frequency higher than Socialists and Conservatives do. Women tend to rank NATO’s communication frequency higher than men rank it. And parliamentarians between ages 50-65 years old gave NATO the highest score in this area. 10 Quality Overall, parliamentarians rank the quality of NATO’s communication with the general public as adequate (5.1). Liberals have a higher opinion of the quality of NATO’s communication toward the public than do Socialists and Conservatives. Women are less critical then men in this area—they gave the organization a 6.4 ranking, while men gave it a 4.9. Scope Overall, parliamentarians think that the scope of NATO’s communication with the general public warrants an almost sufficient ranking (4.8). Liberals gave NATO the highest ranking, while Conservatives and Socialists give it a lower score. Transparency Overall, parliamentarians ranked NATO’s transparency with the general public at a little bit lower than satisfactory (4.6). Once again, Liberals gave NATO the highest ranking. Socialists and Conservatives followed. Older Parliamentarians (over 65) have a higher opinion of NATO’s transparency with the general public, while their intermediate aged counterparts are more critical. Non-Member Countries: Although ratings are higher than they are for member countries, more effort should be put into communication with the general public. Frequency Delegates from non-member countries scored the frequency of communication with the general public at below average, which is slightly higher than the score given by member countries (4.0). Liberals gave the highest score, and Conservatives gave the lowest score. A reversed pattern was observed for communication with the public. Unlike communication with parliamentarians, where the score decreased with the interviewee’s age, scores increased for older delegates. Quality Parliamentarians said NATO delivers a higher quality of communication to them than it does to the general public. Parliamentarians of non-member countries align with those of member countries on this matter, providing similar scores (5.3). The most satisfied age group is the “over 65”, whilst the most sceptical is the intermediate age-range (35-65 years). Scope Non-member countries gave a higher score than did member countries regarding the scope of communication content where the general public is concerned (5.1). Liberals and Socialists gave the highest scores, while Conservatives gave NATO a considerably lower score. Age demographics for this category played out with the younger delegates giving NATO lower scores and the older delegates giving higher scores. Transparency Parliamentarians tend to be less convinced of NATO’s transparency with the general public than with themselves. In this area, they gave NATO a higher score than the one given by delegates from member countries (5.2). Liberals and Socialists have a favourable view of NATO on this matter, but Conservatives disagree. The oldest generations are the most approving of NATO’s transparency in communication. 11 Suggestions for Improvement Member and non-member parliamentarians are in agreement concerning recommendations for improving NATO’s communication efforts. The following suggestions emerged: Focus more on informing students, the media, and political party activists regarding NATO values and benefits of national participation, including membership (for non-member countries). Adopt a policy by which information should be shared by default with the public and only to keep things secret only when there is a security reason to do so. Demonstrate in detail the procedures of decision-making and control within NATO. Show the results of NATO’s work and decisions (At most, the public knows the results of the NATO summits, but nothing about the organization’s activities on cyber security, education in Afghanistan, Libya, etc.) 12 Member Countries: Email is the preferred means of communication, followed by conferences and assemblies. Communication with Parliamentarians It should be noted that the percentages on the table below represent methods parliamentarians think NATO should use to communicate with Parliamentarians (not the actual means they are using). Preferences are ranked in order of their frequency. Communication with Parliamentarians Email 89% Conferences and Assemblies 53% NATO Website 39% Social Media 26% Press Releases 16% Telephone 11% Ordinary Media: Newspapers, Radio 3% Parliamentarians overwhelmingly prefer email as a means of communication. Asked what means would be most effective for NATO to use in order to improve its communication strategy, nearly all of those interviewed suggested email. This response was given in reference to communication both with parliamentarians and with the general public. Parliamentarians from the Liberal party prefer communication through conferences and assemblies more than Conservatives and Socialists do. Liberals also use the NATO website considerably more than parliamentarians affiliated with other parties do. Half of the Liberals surveyed visit the NATO website, while only 40% of Socialists and 35% of Conservatives do so. The same is true regarding press releases. One- fourth of Liberals suggested the use of press releases to convey information, while few Conservatives and Socialists did. Conservatives were the only group that mentioned the telephone as a means of communicating with them. Interestingly, all of the respondents who suggested use of the telephone are men. All of the female delegates said e-mail is their preferred mode of communication, while only 83% of men did. Women also suggested the use of social media considerably more than men did: 67% recommended this technology, compared with 19% of men. With respect to social media, Liberals suggested using this channel the most. 13 Communication with the General Public Preferences are ranked in order of their frequency. Communication with the General Public Television 85% Local Press 69% Social Media 44% NATO Website 51% Radio 36% International Press 23% Education programs for teachers and schools 3% All Socialists and the vast majority of Conservatives and Liberals suggested the television platform for strengthening NATO’s communication strategy. There is a broad consensus here, independent of political affiliation. Roughly half of Liberals and Socialists suggested using radio as a means of disseminating information, and all but one of those who suggested using the International Press are men. Men also suggested using the NATO website more than twice as often as women did. That said, notably more women (67%) suggested the use of social media than did men (39%). This is consistent with our findings regarding women who use social media as a means of gathering information about NATO. Non-Member Countries: Email is the most effective means of communication; conferences and the website are also important. Communication with Parliamentarians The answers are ranked in order of their frequency. Communication with Parliamentarians E-mail 80% Conferences and Assemblies 40% NATO Website 40% Social Media 20% Press Releases 10% All of Liberals and Socialists consider e-mail to be the most appropriate means of strengthening communication with parliamentarians. Conferences and assemblies are also better means of communicating with Liberals and Socialists than to Conservatives. That said, Conservatives indicated that they to refer to a broader set of communications than did their political counterparts. 14 Communication with the General Public The answers are ranked in order of their frequency. Communication means to the General Public Television 100% Local Press 80% Social Media 50% Radio 50% NATO website 10% International Press 10% Dedicated Events 10% All parties agree on the use of television for improving communication with the general public. There is also a 100% consensus among Liberals on the use of radio, as well. However, this is not shared by other political parties. Local press is the preferred means of communication for Conservatives, together with television. Liberals and Socialists also support this method, but to a lesser extent. More than half of those surveyed think social media is a good way to communicate with the public. Finally, the age category of 50- 65 are more open to various means of communication, as they chose a broader set of communication tools than the other age groups did. 15 NATO Post 2014 The End of ISAF Member Countries: The end of ISAF is necessary. Regarding the effect that the end of the ISAF operation will have on NATO, most delegates agree that it will play to the organization’s best interest since “NATO needs this break to rest and recuperate.” As one delegate said, “exits are as important as entries.” However, most parliamentarians also said that NATO needs to continue cooperating with Afghanistan in an advisory role in order to prevent further instability, as “NATO did not manage to build a democracy there.” Still, the experience gained in Afghanistan has been positive. Many declared that it has been an opportunity for NATO to learn. Members from Europe and the US have worked “shoulder to shoulder” and have become more efficient in terms of operations. Some would like NATO to remember the lessons of this experience for future operations in order to be able to draw on them when preparing future missions. Leaving Afghanistan is seen as positive overall and as an opportunity to free up more resources to deploy to other regions. Parliamentarians think it is important for NATO to play an active role in other regions. Respondents mentioned that the future of NATO will mainly depend on how it is involved in conflicts in places like Syria, the Sahel, the MENA countries (such as Libya) and the African coast. Aside from possible conflicts, some delegates think that NATO should begin a period of reflection about areas of improvement, focus more on prevention of instability and increase humanitarian initiatives. According to four parliamentarians, the fact that the US is rebalancing its commitment around the world creates an opportunity for Europe to play a major role in NATO. That said, many parliamentarians say NATO should not simply leave Afghanistan without continuing support to the country. “We cannot leave Afghanistan in one day,” said a member delegate. “It should be a transition. We need to help the country after 2014. There are still problems: 80% of the worldwide supply of heroin comes from Afghanistan. We need to help the police and the army to create a stable country.” Although ending the ISAF program is considered a positive change for NATO, parliamentarians believe combating terrorism should be the main priority for the Alliance in the future. Cyber security and military operations are also perceived as a key strategic priority for NATO in the coming years. Non-Member Countries: NATO should maintain a presence in Afghanistan after the end of ISAF All parliamentarians from non-member countries who were interviewed feel NATO should maintain a presence in Afghanistan. “They should organize some permanent cooperation to help local authorities,” said one delegate, who pointed out the country’s poverty and lack of structure. “It would not be good to just leave.” Strong terrorist threats from MENA countries remain, according to one parliamentarian, and a lot still needs to be done about human rights and the implementation of democratic procedures. The parliamentarian from Afghanistan mentioned efforts to sign a bilateral security agreement as well as the fact that troops will remain in Afghanistan until 2020. “Some countries are waiting for NATO to leave,” he said, referring specifically to Iran 16 and Pakistan. “They think that nobody will be there, so they can take over the country. But it won't be like after Russia left. Intelligence forces are in Afghanistan— their presence will send a message, and the international community will be able to see what is going on to testify against their interference.” The top 10 priorities parliamentarians think NATO should have for the future are shown below in order of importance: Rank NATO Priority 1 Combating Terrorism 2 Cyber Security 3 Military Operations 4 Capabilities 5 Energy Security 6 Transatlantic Bond 7 Mediterranean Dialogue and Istanbul Cooperation Initiative 8 Maritime Security 9 NATO-Russia Relations 10 Open Door Policy Defense Spending Member Countries: About half of parliamentarians think 2% of GDP is sufficient to ensure security. Slightly more than half (56%) of the member parliamentarians surveyed think that the current target amount of 2% of national GDP allocated to defense is sufficient to ensure security. 56% think that amount is about right; 31% think that amount is somewhat high or too high; 13% think that amount is somewhat low or too low. Non-Member Countries: The majority of parliamentarians think 2% of GDP is sufficient to ensure security. Parliamentarians from non-member countries are more willing to increase the 2% allocation of GDP devoted to the defense budget. 70% think the amount is about right; 20% think that amount is somewhat low or too low; 10% think that amount is somewhat high or too high. Why most member countries don’t contribute 2% Parliamentarians from both member and non-member countries agree on the reasons most member countries don’t contribute their burden share to NATO. Overwhelmingly, the reason cited for low contributions was the economic crisis and the resulting budget reductions which leave fewer funds for defense. Other reasons given were lack of political will, a heavy reliance on the US for protection and negative public opinion toward defense spending. 17 The Parliamentary Assembly Integration of NPA into Parliamentary Work Member Countries: The majority of parliamentarians integrate their activities at the NPA into their work. About half (46%) said they always do so, and most of the other half said they sometimes do (46%) so. Very few rarely do so (8%). When communicating information about the NPA to others, parliamentarians address the following: Recipients of communication The Parliament 77% Their Political Parties 62% The General Public 54% The Press 31% The Government 36% Militaries and Former Soldiers 3% Non-Member Countries: Communication of NPA information is strong. The majority of non-member parliamentarians always integrate NPA activities into their home country parliamentary work. About one-third do it only sometimes. All non-member parliamentarians communicate the content of the NPA sessions to other parties. In particular, they do it towards: Recipients of communication The Parliament 91% Their Political Parties 82% The Press 73% The General Public 64% The Government 27% Satisfaction with NPA Member Countries: Parliamentarians were very satisfied with the conference. Overall, parliamentarians were very satisfied with the NPA. The vast majority of parliamentarians felt the timeframe of the NPA was just right, including opening sessions, panels, reports and the closing sessions. The vast majority of parliamentarians felt the debate was adequately moderated, giving delegates an opportunity to discuss the draft reports. 18 Non-Member Countries: Parliamentarians were very satisfied with the conference. Overall, the majority of parliamentarians (64%) were very satisfied with the NPA in Dubrovnik. The rest were at least somewhat satisfied. There is a complete consensus on satisfaction regarding the timeframe of the closing session, the panels and the reports discussion. All were deemed to have been just right. 82% of parliamentarians judged the timeframe for the opening session as just right, while 18% considered it to be somewhat long. Overall, there was a positive consensus on the role of the moderator—nearly all agreed that the debate was adequately moderated. 19 Conclusions & Recommendations Enhancements for NATO’s reputation NATO should make better use of the media to define itself in the public arena. Many people, including those from member countries, still have no idea what NATO does in a present-day context. The Alliance is perceived by many as an artefact of the Cold War or a strictly military organization. The suggestion of engaging the public through local channels is a good one. Establishing NATO representatives in individual countries would give an authenticity and immediacy to NATO communication and would bring the organization into closer proximity with “real people.” Also, the use of social media, universities and schools should be considered to reach the Post-Cold War generation. Young people, who are in the process of forming lifelong opinions, are an important demographic for NATO. As future leaders, they should have a solid understanding of the Alliance and its mission. NATO should make a concerted effort to broadcast about its policies and efforts to a broader audience. Both member and non-member parliamentarians agree that efforts at conflict prevention, humanitarian aid and partnership with non-member countries would also help. Enhancements for NATO’s Communication While few parliamentarians said that NATO should change its communication approach to increase its visibility, most agreed that its communication strategy can be improved. As mentioned earlier, one suggested way was to have a more aggressive and tactical use of mass media. To reach broader demographics, the Alliance should use an array of media tools ranging from radio to the internet to press releases and television. In addition to technological solutions, NATO can partner with local political groups, NGOs and educational institutions to promote its work at the national level. Messages should be contextualized to local cultures: e.g. in Afghanistan, NATO should communicate with the mullahs, in France with young academics and in the United States with Democrats and Republicans. Enhancements for NATO Post 2014 Although in the year 2014 there will be the end of the ISAF operation, parliamentarians do not see this as a revolutionary change. In retrospect, people view NATO’s involvement in Afghanistan as a positive experience that has borne fruit. In light of this, the post 2014 period should be seen as an opportunity to reflect on the past decade and consider what capabilities acquired in Afghanistan can be deployed in future missions. That said, NATO continues to be vital to ensuring the collective defense in its Member States. Terrorism, cyber terrorism and future conflicts (e.g. Syria) should remain high on the agenda. Finally, especially in non- member countries, there is the belief that NATO should establish permanent cooperation with local governments in order to help them maintain stability. 20 Appendix I Methodology Quantitative study The paper questionnaire, distributed to the parliamentarians at the beginning of the NPA, aims at answering the following general research questions: What are parliamentarians’ general perceptions of NATO? How well does NATO communicate with them? What are their views on NATO post-2014 and on the funding of NATO? How satisfied were the participants with the NPA in Dubrovnik? We aligned a final list of questions with NATO’s specifications in order to guarantee that all of the required topics were covered. However, we received only 57 completed questionnaires by the end of the NPA. In order to increase the representativeness of the sample, a second round of telephone calls was done with the secretaries of Delegations. We have asked if it was possible to chase the Delegates once again to get answers to the questionnaire. From this second round, we gathered two new responses. During the telephone calls with the secretaries of Delegation, we received some comments that we can point to as explanations for the lower response rates to the quantitative survey. A number of secretariats specified that Delegates did not feel confident in completing the questionnaire because of language barriers. Others told us that Delegates are already over-loaded with surveys on a daily basis, and they suggested that a way to increase the response rate would be to propose the survey a second time during one of the upcoming events organized by NATO. Furthermore, there is the possibility that one Delegate has decided to answer as a representative of the entire delegation, especially for small countries. In fact, the Secretary from the Swiss Delegation told us that although we received only one response, it could be counted for the whole delegation since the delegates had agreed to answer the questionnaire as a group. To constitute a representative sample of the 256 parliamentarians who attended the conference, we should have had a sample of 70 delegates. However, we were able to collect only 59 responses. Of those, 9 were discarded due to missing information regarding their countries, leaving us with 50 relevant questionnaires. Qualitative study In addition to the quantitative study, we have conducted a qualitative assessment by carrying out face-to-face interviews with 29 parliamentarians. The resulting information was used to complement the findings delivered through the questionnaire. The questionnaire for the face-to-face interviews complemented the first questionnaire in that it asked parliamentarians to expand on their views previously expressed. Specifically, the following themes were discussed: NATO’s reputation Perception about NATO post 2014 NATO’ communication efforts 21 The interviewees asked mainly open ended questions to give interviewees an opportunity to further elaborate their answers. This provided a deeper understanding of the findings related to the quantitative study. The final list of questions was also aligned with NATO’s specifications in order to guarantee that all of the required topics were covered. Interviews were conducted in Dubrovnik during the NPA. All interviews lasted approximately 10 minutes. Analysis Each question has been analysed both separately and within the overall context of the questionnaire. We present the results per type of country (members vs. non-members), political party and gender, when relevant. These findings are not generalizable to the whole population of parliamentarians as the sample is still not representative (for that, we need 70 completed questionnaires). Answers from the face-to-face interviews provide more insight on distinct topics, but they cannot be understood as generalisations. Our findings explicitly identify answers that came from the face-to-face interviews. We adapted the data analysis methodology according to the type of question: - Close-ended questions require the interviewee to select one answer among a pre-defined list. For instance, this may be a yes/no answer or a 1 to 5 answer. In this case, we performed quantitative analysis, using mainly frequencies and averages. - Open-ended questions require the interviewee to use his/her own words to explain the answers. In this case, we classified the answers by key messages, measured the iteration of similar answers and put the key messages into context in order to infer the main findings. 22 Interviewee profile for the quantitative study The sample is composed of 50 respondents from the following countries and is characterised as follows: Type of country Country Number of responses Member countries Belgium 3 Bulgaria 1 Canada 1 Croatia 1 Czech Republic 2 France 6 Greece 1 Italy 6 Latvia 3 Lithuania 2 Luxembourg 1 Netherlands 1 Norway 1 Poland 1 Portugal 1 Slovenia 1 Spain 2 Turkey 1 United Kingdom 4 Non-member countries Armenia 1 Austria 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1 Georgia 1 Morocco 1 Republic of Moldova 2 Serbia 2 Switzerland 1 Ukraine 1 TOTAL 50 Age Total Member countries Non- member countries Under 35 3 2 1 35 -49 14 10 4 50-65 26 21 5 Over 65 6 5 1 No answer 1 1 - TOTAL 50 39 11 23 Political group affiliation Total Member countries Non- member countries Conservatives, Christian Democrats and Associates 24 20 4 Alliance of Liberals and Democrats 10 7 3 Socialist 14 11 3 Other 1 - - No answer 2 1 1 TOTAL 50 39 11 Gender Total Member countries Non- member countries Female 6 6 - Male 44 33 11 TOTAL 50 39 11 Interviewee profile for the qualitative study The group of respondents for the face-to-face interviews is composed of 29 respondents from the following countries and is characterised as follows: Country Total Afghanistan 1 Albania 1 Belgium 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1 Bulgaria 1 Canada 2 France 3 Georgia 1 Germany 1 Hungary 1 Iceland 2 Italy 2 Lithuania 1 Luxembourg 1 Netherlands 1 Poland 1 Portugal 1 Republic of Moldova 1 Spain 1 Switzerland 1 Turkey 2 United Kingdom 2 TOTAL 29 24 Type of country Total Member countries 24 Associate countries 4 Partner countries and guests 1 Total 29 Political group affiliation Total Conservatives, Christian Democrats and Associates 13 Alliance of Liberals and Democrats 8 Socialist 6 Other 2 TOTAL 29 Gender Total Female 5 Male 24 Total 29 25 Appendix II Questionnaire used for the quantitative study Respondent name (optional): Gender: □ Female □ Male Country: Political Group Affiliation: □ Conservatives, Christian Democrats and Associates □ Alliance of Liberals and Democrats □ Socialist □ Other Age: □ Under 35 □ 35 -49 □ 50-65 □ Over 65 I. NATO’S REPUTATION Q1 Please rate the perceptions the groups listed below have of NATO. Tick only one answer per column. Yourself Your national political party The citizens in your country Very favourable Somewhat favourable Neutral Not very favourable Not favourable at all Q2 What measures would you recommend NATO take to improve the perception your country’s citizens have of the organization? Please explain. Q3 How do the groups listed below perceive the role of NATO in ensuring the collective defense of its member states? Tick only one answer per column. Yourself Your national political party The citizens in your country Essential Very important Somewhat important Not important 26 Q4 Please rank the following institutions according to their usefulness in ensuring international peace and stability. Please use a scale from 1 to 5, 1 being the most useful and 5 being the least useful. NATO United Nations (UN) European Institutions (Commission, Council and Parliament) Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Council of Europe Other: please specify Q5a Do you see NATO as a crucial player on the global stage? Tick one answer only. □ Yes, totally □ Somewhat □ Not very much □ Not at all Q5b Why or why not? Please explain. Q6 How well does NATO represent the needs of its member nations? Tick one answer only. □ Well □ Partially □ Not very well □ Not at all well 27 II. COMMUNICATION Q7a How well does NATO communicate with you in the following areas? Please use a scale from 1 to 10, 1 being not well at all and 10 being very well. Tick only one answer per row. 1 Not well at all 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Very well Frequency Quality Scope Transparency Q7b What means would be most effective for NATO in improving its communication with you? Tick all that apply. □ E-mail □ Telephone □ Press release □ NATO website □ Social media □ Conferences and assemblies □ Other: please specify Q8a How does NATO communicate with the general public in your country? Please use a scale from 1 to 10, 1 being not well at all and 10 being very well. Tick only one answer per row. 1 Not well at all 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Very well Frequency Quality Scope Transparency Q8b How should NATO improve its communication strategy towards the general public in your country? Please explain. Q8c What means would be most effective for NATO in improving its communication with the general public in your country? Tick all that apply. □ NATO website □ Local press □ International press □ Television □ Radio □ Social media □ Other: please specify 28 Q8d What measures should NATO take to further enhance its transparency towards the general public in your country? Please explain. III. PERCEPTIONS OF NATO POST 2014 Q9 According to you, how should NATO rank its priorities for the future? Please use a scale from 1 to 10, 1 being the most important and 10 being the least important. Military Operations Capabilities NATO-Russia relations Open Door Policy Mediterranean Dialogue and Istanbul Cooperation Initiative Combating terrorism Cyber security Maritime Security Energy Security Transatlantic Bond Other: please specify Q10 According to you, what should NATO not do in the future? Please explain. Q11 Overall, do you believe the current target amount of 2% of national GDP allocated to defense is sufficient to ensure security? Tick one answer only. □ It is too high □ It is somewhat high □ It is about right □ It is somewhat low □ It is too low Q12 Why do you believe that most member countries do not contribute 2% of their GDP to defense? Please explain. 29 IV. NATO PARLIAMENTARY ASSEMBLY Q13a Do you integrate your activities at the NATO Parliamentary Assembly (NPA) into your work in the National Parliament? Tick one answer only. □ Always □ Sometimes □ Rarely □ Never Q13b If so, how? Please explain. Q14 To whom do you communicate the content of the NPA sessions? Tick all that apply. □ Government □ Parliament □ Political party □ General public □ Press □ Other: please specify □ I do not communicate this information to other parties Q15 Overall, how satisfied were you with the Dubrovnik session of the NPA? Tick one answer only. □ Very satisfied □ Somewhat satisfied □ Neutral □ Somewhat dissatisfied □ Very dissatisfied Q16 Overall, how satisfied were you with the timeframe of the sessions? Tick only one answer per row. Too short Somewhat short Just right Somewhat long Too long Opening sessions Panels Reports Closing sessions Q17 Overall, do you think that the debate was adequately moderated, giving delegates an opportunity to discuss the draft reports? Tick one answer only. □ Yes □ Neutral □ No 30 Discussion guide used for the qualitative study Respondent name (optional): Gender: □ Female □ Male Country: Political Group Affiliation: □ Conservatives, Christian Democrats and Associates □ Alliance of Liberals and Democrats □ Socialist □ Other I. NATO’S REPUTATION Q1. Do you think NATO fulfils its duty to maintain peace? □ Yes, totally □ Somewhat □ Not very much □ Not at all Q2. If not totally, what measures should it take in order to do so? II. PERCEPTIONS OF NATO POST 2014 Q3. How will the end of the ISAF mission affect NATO? III. COMMUNICATION Q4a. Do you think most people have heard about NATO? Q4b. Do you think most people understand what NATO does? □ Yes, totally □ Somewhat □ Not very much □ Not at all Q5. What measures could NATO take to enhance public awareness about the organization? Q6. Other comments: PwC Luxembourg (www.pwc.lu) is the largest professional services firm in Luxembourg with 2,300 people employed from 57 different countries. It provides audit, tax and advisory services including management consulting, transaction, financing and regulatory advice to a wide variety of clients from local and middle market entrepreneurs to large multinational companies operating from Luxembourg and the Greater Region. It helps its clients create the value they are looking for by giving comfort to the capital markets and providing advice through an industry focused approach. The global PwC network is the largest provider of professional services in audit, tax and advisory. We’re a network of independent firms in 158 countries and employ more than 180,000 people. 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Tale om undersøgelse af NATO PA udført i 2014.docx
https://www.ft.dk/samling/20131/almdel/NPA/bilag/5/1337175.pdf
1 Assistant Secretary General Kolinda Grabar: Remarks to the NPA Getting the Message Across: NATO’s Narrative Challenge February 16, 2014 ¦ Brussels Good afternoon, President Bayley, distinguished members of Delegations, Parliamentary guests, colleagues and friends, I am honored to be part of this event today, and thank you for the kind introduction. I am the last speaker of the day and I hope to get your attention in this busy day, while I wrap up what has been discussed so far. The NATO Parliamentary Assembly plays an essential role as the link between the Alliance and our parliaments, and – through them – our publics. As Assistant Secretary General for Public Diplomacy, I am grateful for your essential work in engaging with your constituents and your peers on the importance of NATO. The Alliance has a compelling story to tell during this Summit year, and your work has been indispensable in ensuring that our publics hear it loud and clear. For all of these contributions to this work, I am here to say thank you. But I should add that I also am here today to push a bit of an agenda. (I hope you will indulge me!) And that agenda is simple: NATO’s Public Diplomacy Division and the NATO Parliamentary Assembly can and should do more together. With your help, we want to hear more from constituents about where they believe the Alliance is headed. I am here to seek your feedback on how we can improve our ties and work together during this pivotal year for the Alliance. With that not-so-hidden agenda in mind, I would like to begin with a few comments about the year ahead for NATO, as well as a brief summary of the Alliance’s public narrative as we approach the NATO Summit in September. I will outline some of the key NATO's Parlamentariske Forsamling 2013-14 NPA Alm.del Bilag 5 Offentligt (01) 2 themes that will guide our programs this year, but I will be brief, as you will continue to hear a great deal about these at tomorrow’s Council meeting. Instead, as the subject of our panel suggests, I’d like to focus our talk on how the NPA and NATO’s Public Diplomacy Division can coordinate more effectively and support each other’s efforts to get the message across. It is essential that we hear your views as we begin our Summit planning. And I assure you, we are listening to your views which are very important to us: Many of you may recall that we commissioned Price Waterhouse Cooper to conduct a survey during the NATO Parliamentary Assembly session in Dubrovnik last October and at the NATO PA Transatlantic Forum in Washington in December. I will cite a few of the surveys’ key findings a bit later, and I look forward to hearing your feedback. Thank you again for your help in working with PWC on your views. But first, a bit of context on 2014: This is an important time for NATO. 2014 is a Summit year. When Heads of State and Government gather in Wales, we will, in effect, be writing a new chapter in NATO’s story. Throughout the year, we mark significant anniversaries of the great conflicts which shaped our world; the enlargements which have helped heal the divisions in Europe; and our ever-widening network of partners as we tackle global security challenges. We will also mark the 65th anniversary of the signing of the Washington Treaty, NATO’s founding document. In addition, NATO’s longest combat operation -- the ISAF mission in Afghanistan – will come to an end, and we will continue to prepare for a follow-on mission. These milestones mark an inflection point for the Alliance in 2014, one that we will discuss, debate, and celebrate throughout the year as we approach the Summit. The 3 Summit will represent an opportunity for our national leadership to reflect on these milestones – with the aim of moving the Alliance forward. And we have a strong case to make. We live in a security environment that is complex – and is only growing more complex. Threats are multiplying and instability is growing. But NATO has demonstrated it is strong, adaptable, and ready to provide security today and tomorrow. The Alliance has taken on new missions, developed new capabilities, welcomed new members and engaged with new partners. Each time we faced new threats, we have risen to the challenge, learned from the experience, and moved forward. These elements comprise our Summit narrative that we continue to develop as we approach the Summit. As we approach the Summit, our publics will be increasingly asking difficult questions about the role that NATO will play after 2014, after Afghanistan, and as we continue to feel the effects of fiscal austerity. So the stakes are high, and the media environment is daunting: We live at a time in which events unfold in real time. We are operating amid the competitive din of social media. Official voices are sometimes not the most exciting -- and not always perceived as the most credible. But despite these challenges, we have to be a part of that conversation. Let me briefly lay out the core themes we plan to deliver as part of our Summit narrative. Then I will get back to the issue of what we can do together in order to advance these core messages. 4 The first core theme you will be hearing quite a lot about as we approach the Summit boils down to a simple phrase: “Future NATO” – a term that captures the idea of an Alliance that is rebalancing and adapting to lessons learned over the past 20 years of NATO operations. These lessons break down into three broad categories: First, Partnerships: We will point to NATO’s experience in Afghanistan as a vivid illustration of how partnerships make the Alliance more capable, flexible, and better-connected. Second, Connectivity: As our largest combat operation winds down in 2014, it will be essential to remain connected as Allies and with partners so we retain the edge and experience acquired through over 20 years of operations. And finally, capabilities: We need to persuade our publics of the importance of investing in the capabilities we need to ensure that the Alliance has the right tools to confront tomorrow’s challenges. Another key theme we will address in Wales is our experience in Afghanistan. It will be vitally important for NATO to explain ISAF’s legacy to our publics. Finally, we will stress that the transatlantic bond remains a pillar of the Alliance. Speaking more broadly, the Summit is an opportunity to communicate persuasively with citizens who are questioning NATO’s relevance -- particularly with the end of the ISAF mission. Many people question why we need defence at all. We need to make the case that the preservation of our security and values is not given. Now, this is not the end of our discussion on Summit themes – on the contrary, I am looking forward to questions today and to continuing this conversation over the next six 5 months. But this is also a good time to examine how the NPA and NATO’s Public Diplomacy Division can better coordinate our efforts. Much has already been achieved. Our staffs are in close contact here in Brussels. We work together on briefings – sometimes we bring groups to you and sometimes you bring groups to us. This is incredibly valuable – last May the NPA organized a visit for a group of Russian parliamentarians – something that would not have been possible if we were working alone. We also worked very closely together during the recent NPA visit to Kyiv. At the same time, I believe that we can do even more in our joint efforts to reach out to national legislative bodies. It is no secret that involving members of national legislative bodies in both Allied and partner countries is one of our most critical priorities. The role of the NATO Parliamentary assembly in this respect is absolutely crucial. We rely on you and your colleagues to help us reach out to parliamentarians who are not necessarily as engaged in security and defence issues as you are. I’ve mentioned the challenging media environment in which we operate. Right now, we live in a world where facts and opinions are exchanged and disseminated with the click of a button. In this environment, the ability of elected officials, governments, and multilateral organizations to engage and facilitate dialogue has never been greater – but at the same time, we have never faced more competition. We can have more of an impact if we are working together. And as I mentioned, we are listening to your feedback. We commissioned the PWC surveys last year to take a close look at how we can communicate with you more effectively. We worked in close cooperation with the NATO PA Secretariat on the surveys, and I would like to take this opportunity to thank the NPA staff for its superb work and excellent support. 6 The surveys sought your views on the way in which NATO communicates with you and on your perceptions of NATO more broadly. Let me share with you some of the conclusions of the survey, which is based on the views of 97 parliamentarians, from both member and non-member countries: NATO PA Delegates have a very favourable perception of NATO, with 51% of respondents saying that the Alliance totally fulfils its goals and 40% that it somewhat fulfils them. Delegates believe that more than half of their parties have similarly positive views of NATO, but only 25% of their constituencies share these views. Respondents recommended that outreach towards constituents, especially youth, should be improved to convince them of NATO’s value and relevance. Some expressed the view that citizens have moved beyond the idea of NATO as a necessary entity. 92% of respondents reported that they integrate their NATO PA activities into their national work either sometimes or always. Delegates indicated that they are satisfied with the frequency and quality of NATO outreach and that more person-to-person contact would be useful. These findings point to a positive picture of how we are communicating with each other. However, I believe they also point to areas in which we can do more – and move forward together. I will mention three areas in particular, but this is just a beginning -- I welcome your ideas on how to build on this list: 7 1. First, I believe there is more we can do to compare notes on target audiences. You know your constituents – you know the issues they follow and those they don’t. You know what will appeal to them and what won’t. And you may be the primary conduit through which they gather information to form their opinions about a range of subjects, NATO included. So you are well-placed to carry the message of NATO’s relevance. To the extent possible, we’d like to build on that good foundation. We can do this only with your feedback. 2. Secondly, the PWC survey emphasized one of those audiences in particular: the younger generation. We should do more to combine our efforts in engaging younger audiences, ideally through increased cooperation with universities and schools. We need to explore ways in which NATO can contribute – in terms of substance, contacts, and technology – to your own youth outreach. 3. Thirdly, NATO should increasingly look to the NPA to help amplify our outreach towards next-generation policymakers. We would be grateful for your advice and expertise on how best to build on your existing partnerships with local political groups and policy organizations. 4. Fourth, we should collaborate with you more closely on increasing our regular contacts with parliamentarians – beyond existing mechanisms. Your suggestions in this respect would be more than welcome. 5. Finally, and more broadly, we should improve our channels of communication and coordinate our efforts in systematic, concrete ways – perhaps through targeted distribution lists and working groups. These ideas are, of course, simply proposals, but I believe they represent a practical way forward. And I hope they will help steer our discussion today. We hope that this is just 8 the beginning of the conversation. We look forward to staying in touch with you to continue this dialogue, and to share ideas. As you can see, NATO has its work cut out for all of us this year. The road ahead to the Summit will be challenging. It will require unity of purpose among our Allies. It will require political resolve in NATO capitals to help our publics understand why defence matters, and why NATO matters. Once again, thanks very much for your tireless support of our outreach efforts, and now I look forward to taking your questions.
Rapport del 2 om undersøgelse af NATO PA udført i 2014.docx
https://www.ft.dk/samling/20131/almdel/NPA/bilag/5/1337177.pdf
PricewaterhouseCoopers, Société coopérative, 400 Route d’Esch, B.P. 1443, L-1014 Luxembourg T : +352 494848 1, F : +352 494848 2900, www.pwc.lu Cabinet de révision agréé. Expert-comptable (autorisation gouvernementale n°10028256) R.C.S. Luxembourg B 65 477 - TVA LU25482518 Follow-up Qualitative Study: The NATO Parliamentary Transatlantic Forum, Washington D.C. 2-3 December 2013 Final Report Market Research Institute December 2013 NATO's Parlamentariske Forsamling 2013-14 NPA Alm.del Bilag 5 Offentligt (01) 3 Contents Executive Summary........................................................... 1 Articulate a Clear Mission ........................................................................................1 Justify Defence Spending........................................................................................2 NATO will remain relevant after 2014 ...................................................................2 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................3 Main Findings ...................................................................4 Interviewee Profile........................................................................................................4 Communication with delegates....................................................................................4 NATO should improve its communication efforts with non-Americans..............4 Improvements in NATO’s communication strategy have been suggested by the interviewees ....................................................................................................... 5 NATO’s communication efforts in the delegates’ country are somewhat effective but could be further improved .................................................................6 Only few understand what NATO actually does .................................................... 7 Suggestions for improving public awareness of NATO’s role and duties.............8 Suggestions for improving NATO’s communication strategy towards the general public...........................................................................................................9 Defence Spending ....................................................................................................... 10 The general public is sceptical about spending money on defence .................... 10 The economic crisis is, according to the delegates, one of the main reasons for not reaching the contribution level of 2% of the GDP ....................................11 NATO must convince Non-American member countries to invest in defence .. 13 NATO Post 2014.......................................................................................................... 14 NATO has the capabilities to remain relevant ..................................................... 14 The end of ISAF: How will it affect NATO? ..........................................................15 Both non-American and American delegates interviewed agree that NATO will remain relevant post 2014.............................................................................. 16 NATO’s priority should be to focus on developing its capabilities ......................17 Conclusions & Recommendations....................................20 Communication...........................................................................................................20 Defence Spending .......................................................................................................20 NATO Post 2014..........................................................................................................20 Appendix I....................................................................... 21 Appendix II......................................................................24 4 Executive Summary As a follow up study to the “Quantitative research among members of the NPA at the General Assembly in Dubrovnik”, NATO has commissioned PwC to carry out a qualitative assessment that evaluates the perceptions of 18 parliamentarians (hereafter “delegates”) of the NATO Parliamentary Transatlantic Forum in Washington, D.C. The results have been presented in two categories: non-Americans (who accounted for 14 interviews) and Americans (who accounted for 4 interviews). The objective of this study is to obtain an extensive picture of the delegate’s attitudes as well as to complement and complete the findings which have emerged from the Dubrovnik study. In fact, this research aims at ascertaining the: Effectiveness of NATO’s communication with delegates and the general public; Measures NATO should take to enhance its communication strategy; Attitudes of delegates regarding defence spending; Perceptions of NATO’s relevance post 2014. The findings in this study echo those resulting from the previous study conducted with parliamentarians in Dubrovnik, Croatia where delegates suggested NATO should increase the use of the media, raise awareness among the general public and define its priorities for the future. It should be noted that delegates in Croatia were generally more satisfied with NATO. Articulate a Clear Mission Asked what NATO should do to enhance public awareness of its role and duties on the global stage, particularly at a national level, delegates suggested projecting a clearer and more targeted message as well as making use of local militaries to enhance communication. When asked to what extent the general public understands what NATO does, only a small minority of non-American delegates reported that the general public in their countries has a basic understanding of the Alliance and its missions. The remaining non-Americans as well as all the American delegates mentioned that the citizens of their countries do not understand NATO. According to the delegates interviewed, in order to improve its communication strategy, NATO should use the media more effectively, target young audiences, enhance its website, increase transparency and connect with local militaries to disseminate messages. Some of these suggestions emerged previously in the Dubrovnik study in which parliamentarians suggested NATO should make use of the media to articulate its mission and objectives as well as to highlight its achievements in order to raise awareness. The previous study also highlighted a lack in understanding about what NATO does, which has been confirmed in this study. Delegates, in fact, suggested in that first study that NATO should invest more in communication specifically through the use of media, educational programs, youth outreach, social media and local ambassadors. Most of these points, such as the use of general and social media as well as youth outreach, also emerged in this study and, thus, appear to be of particular interest to the delegates. Communication “NATO should explain in more clear terms what the Alliance is doing to enhance security in the 21st century.” 2 Justify Defence Spending Both non-Americans and Americans are sceptical about spending money on defence. The economic crisis has been identified as one of the reasons behind hostility toward defence spending. When asked to describe the general mood in their countries regarding this issue, delegates said citizens believe the faltering economy is one of the reasons member countries do not contribute more. The lack of a perceived threat, the lack of political will and other more pressing fiscal priorities are also behind the reluctance of non-American member countries to increase their burden share. All of the Americans interviewed said financial constraints are the source of most countries’ failure to contribute 2% GDP towards defence. In order to rectify the situation, delegates suggest NATO must convince people through its words and actions that the cost is justified. These results confirm the findings of the Dubrovnik study where the reason cited for low contributions was the economic crisis and the resulting budget reductions which leave fewer funds for defence. Other reasons given by the parliamentarians in that study were the lack of political will, a heavy reliance on the US for protection and negative public opinion toward defence spending. The current study confirms these findings. In order to increase the willingness of countries to invest more in defence, delegates in the previous study suggested NATO should use the media to inform the public about the benefits the Alliance offers. This view has been echoed by the views of the delegates in the current study who report that NATO should present a clearer argument in order to convince countries to invest more in defence. NATO will remain relevant after 2014 Both non-American and American delegates think that, while NATO has the capabilities to remain relevant, it will have to make adjustments. Interoperability, deployability and deterrence were listed as areas that should be enhanced in the future. While non-Americans are somewhat cautious in their conviction that the Alliance will remain relevant after 2014, Americans feel very strongly that NATO will play an important role going forward. Reasons given for this include the persistence of international terrorism, cyber issues and the on-going need for global security. Concerning the end of International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), non- Americans are mixed in their outlooks. Some feel that with no clear mission, public support for NATO will wane. Others see this as an opportunity for the Alliance to return to its original mission of pursuing national security. Still others think this will give the Alliance space to engage in civil diplomacy and humanitarian efforts. The American delegates are unanimously supportive of the ISAF mission, declaring it greatly beneficial. The Alliance’s priorities for the future, they say, should be to hold on to the ground they have gained, both politically and in terms of internal capabilities, through ISAF. In that way, the mission will have been a success. In the previous study, delegates considered the end of ISAF to be a positive change for NATO—although most feel NATO should maintain its presence in Afghanistan in order to facilitate a smoother transition and support the country beyond 2014. Although, the previous study suggested that the end of ISAF will allow NATO to “rest and recuperate”, member parliamentarians believed combating terrorism should be the main priority for the Alliance in the future. Cyber security (in conjunction with military operations) is also perceived as a key strategic priority. While these points were also mentioned in this study, the highest priorities for the future, according to the delegates in Washington D.C., are developing specific capabilities, strengthening relationships and cooperating with other partners. Defense Spending Post 2014 “NATO could increase willingness to invest more by explaining the purpose and benefits of the Alliance.” “NATO must increase capabilities and decrease expenses to remain relevant.” 3 Conclusions Both studies conducted among members of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly raised important points: There is a lack of understanding regarding what NATO does: the general public needs to know more about the role of NATO in order to appreciate its value; A more efficient use of the media is needed: both General Media and Social Media should be employed as essential communication tools to raise awareness among the general public; NATO needs to build personal relationships with the delegates and establish a closer proximity to the “real people” through local representatives in countries. In conclusion, both studies suggest strong efforts need to be made in terms of communication. In particular, this study found that a clear and targeted message should be communicated in order to reach a broader audience and further increase awareness. Explaining the role, activities and benefits of the Alliance would be helpful to convince the public of its usefulness and could increase the willingness of certain member countries to invest more. NATO continues to be vital to ensuring the collective defence and will continue to be relevant post 2014, especially if it develops specific capabilities. NATO should translate the experience acquired in Afghanistan with ISAF into future missions. 4 Main Findings Interviewee Profile PwC interviewed 18 parliamentarians (delegates), 14 were Non-American and 4 were American1. The sample was composed of individuals representing various political parties: there were 6 Conservatives, 1 member of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats, 1 Socialist, 1 member of the Freedom and Democracy Party and 5 non- Americans from unidentified political parties. Three of the Americans interviewed identify with the Democratic Party, while one did not state his party allegiance. Because only two of the delegates interviewed were women, there is an under representation of women in the sample. The following countries were represented: the US, The Netherlands, France, Denmark, Germany, the UK, Greece, Canada, Croatia, Spain, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. For a complete listing of the interviewee demographics, see appendix 1. Communication with delegates NATO should improve its communication efforts with non-Americans. Satisfaction of non-American delegates with NATO’s communication efforts is quite low, especially when it comes to the transparency of information provided. More than 40% of those surveyed (6/14) said they are satisfied with NATO’s frequency of communication toward them. While three said they are “somewhat satisfied”, five reported being “dissatisfied” with the frequency of the Alliance’s communication. Those who are dissatisfied said they almost never receive information from NATO. In terms of quality, just under 30% of the delegates interviewed (4/14) said they consider NATO’s communication efforts to be of high-quality. An equal number said the quality of communication could afford to be improved, two said they consider NATO’s communication to be of low-quality, and four did not comment. Reasons for the criticisms were the impression that NATO “always focuses on the big topics, like ISAF”, “the Alliance needs to be more relevant for today—e.g. explain why NATO still matters” and “people only know about NATO because of military operations and invasions.” Impressions concerning the scope of NATO’s communication are mixed. Half of the delegates (7/14) are at least somewhat satisfied with the scope of information they receive. Three said they are “not very satisfied”, one said he is “not at all satisfied”, and three did not register an opinion. The basic criticism offered by those who are dissatisfied with the scope of communication is NATO’s overarching focus on issues like Afghanistan and other missions. These individuals suggested NATO should broaden its message. Concerning the transparency of NATO’s communication efforts, delegates were more critical. Only one reported being “very satisfied”, while three said they are “somewhat satisfied”. Four of the delegates are “not very satisfied”, three are “not at 1 Of which one is the Secretary of the US delegation 5 all satisfied”, and three declined to comment. Those who are satisfied with NATO’s transparency are really satisfied: “Very, very, very good reports—good flow, good quality, good information,” reported one delegate. Others offered a more critical view saying they are unsure where and how NATO formulates decisions, they want to hear more “real stories” and they feel there is little or no transparency. All of the American delegates interviewed are satisfied with NATO’s communication efforts. The four Americans interviewed said they are unanimously pleased with the frequency, quality, scope and transparency of information they receive from NATO. Each answered all four questions with the same response: one said NATO’s efforts in these areas are “excellent”, one said he is “very satisfied”, one said the Alliance does “a good job”, and one said, “I get what I need.” Improvements in NATO’s communication strategy have been suggested by the delegates. While non-Americans provided suggestions to improve NATO’s communication with them… Several themes emerged concerning suggestions for improving NATO’s communication strategy: Build personal relationships Two of the delegates interviewed specifically mentioned building “personal relationships” as a means for improving NATO’s communication strategy—others alluded to this notion, but used different language to express their ideas. “NATO should not be an ‘ivory tower’,” said one delegate. Another added, “With so much content in the mail and email, the most effective [means of communication] is one- to-one relationships.” Use Social Media Two delegates specifically recommended the use of social media as a means of enhancing communication efforts. “NATO should use all available tools,” said one delegate, who was satisfied with communication. “They have done well at being visible with social media.” Another added, “Using social media more is good. Following [NATO] on Twitter and good links—this might be a good feature to have.” Use the General Media Two delegates mentioned specific initiatives NATO could take to leverage on the media. “NATO should have public campaigns to explain their purpose and build awareness through media relations,” said one. The other made suggestions concerning content: “Provide more context. Don't only talk about the Alliance, but talk about events around the world. Find a way through the media—we want knowledgeable and authentic communication.” Connect with Members of Parliament Two delegates took issue with the flow of NATO’s communication, suggesting that direct contact with MPs will improve things. “There is no easy way of doing it. They have to identify MPs and develop relationships with them,” said one delegate. Another expanded on this idea, “Communication should go to the MP, not the Secretary of NATO’s association.” 6 … most of the Americans interviewed said NATO does not need to improve its communication efforts with them. All of the Americans interviewed are satisfied with NATO’s communication efforts and three of them have no suggestions for improving it. One delegate, however, offered this insight: “NATO should help us to better understand what the purpose of their engagements is. Also, they could improve the transition between members of the Delegation.” NATO’s communication efforts in the delegates’ countries are somewhat effective, but could be further improved. Half of non-Americans say NATO’s communication efforts are not effective and the Alliance should improve its communication to the general public in terms of frequency and definition of its role. When asked to comment on how effective NATO’s communication efforts are in their countries, half of the delegates said “not very effective.” Two consider NATO’s communication to be “effective”, three said it is “not at all effective”, and one remained neutral. The primary criticism is that the general public does not receive communications from NATO. Next is the perceived lack of a defined role. The following comments encapsulate the spirit of opinions offered by delegates: “NATO needs to reach more young people (schools, universities and other groups) to clear up what are NATO's missions for the 21st Century.” “NATO has lost trust with people. They need to hold events to engage the people. It’s essential to reach these groups in East Germany.” “It’s not good. 50% of the population doesn't know what NATO does –99% don't know what the NPA does. It's a relic from the Cold War. The ‘strategic concept’ hasn't been well communicated.” “They are doing the best that they can. The public is just not interested in NATO. NGOs are the best way to convey messages. Peers are better than military officers.” “It’s quite effective, but the Secretary General is Danish, which means that the Danes are paying more attention. Denmark is also making a significant contribution to ISAF, which gets attention.” Although half of the American delegates interviewed are satisfied with NATO’s communication to the general public in the US, NATO should consider increasing its visibility and communication effectiveness. While two of the American delegates interviewed said NATO’s communication efforts in the US are “fine”, the other two offered suggestions for improvement: “NATO needs to be more visible with people other than immediate stakeholders. Members of Defence & Foreign Affairs committees understand the importance of NATO, but not every Congressman or Senator does.” “They could be more effective with Key Leader Engagements, Congressman and other congressional committees (that are relevant, Foreign Affairs/Defence etc.).” 7 Only few understand what NATO actually does Only a minority of non-Americans understand what NATO does. When asked to what extent people in delegates’ countries understand what NATO does, responses were evenly mixed. About 20% of the respondents (3/14) said that people in their country had at least a basic understanding of the Alliance and its mission—two were effusive in their praise. This is the case among Eastern European States as these countries still consider Russia to be a risk and citizens have memories of the Soviet occupation. On the other hand, the remaining 80% (11/14) said that the people in their countries do not understand NATO—four insisted that people actually have no idea what the Alliance does. Those who responded positively to the question offered the following insights: “People understand what NATO does. The referendum in Spain was recent so the new generation is clear on why we joined NATO—the referendum had the effect of educating the Spanish about NATO's activities.” “They understand the threat of Russia, which has exercises to attack NATO. The communication is working and Estonians know that they are being heard. Estonia's priority is Article Five.” “Six out of 10 will say that NATO is a collective defence organization.” The remainder suggested the general lack of understanding can be attributed to the impression that the Alliance is a Cold War relic, assumptions that NATO is solely a military entity and limited knowledge. “People understand NATO's role during the Cold War and its ties to the West. But the East Germans need to understand why NATO is important to them.” “Perceptions of NATO are old! NATO doesn't explain what it does now (other than Afghanistan).” “Not many understand—especially young people. They understand NATO only as a military or political organization, but not about [its involvement in] natural disasters, floods and emergency response.” “They understand more of the fundamental philosophy behind NATO and international security, but they don't understand the military alliance’s importance and why they have to pay the price—that they can't take security for granted.” “Greeks believe NATO interferes with countries. They do not understand NATO beyond that.” “Croats understand NATO through tanks, bombs and missions. They do not hear about civil missions or other initiatives.” “They understand that NATO will protect them from Russia. Outside of that, there are no threats.” The same trend is noticeable among Americans. The four Americans agreed that people in the United States do not have a clear understanding of what NATO does. They offered the following comments: 8 “NATO is not good with the general population, which doesn't understand and doesn't really seem to care.” “It's not high on the list of priorities for most Americans. The Summit in Chicago brought it to attention briefly.” “It’s hard to say. There's a generational divide. Baby boomers and their parents are acutely aware. But today's young adults: not as much.” “I think people have forgotten what NATO stands for outside ISAF.” Suggestions for improving public awareness of NATO’s role and duties According to non-Americans, NATO should have a more precise message and intermediary to be used in its communication. Asked what NATO should do to enhance public awareness of its role and duties on the global stage, particularly on a national level, delegates suggested: Projecting a clearer and more targeted message “Try to have a clear concept of what kind of security they are providing: What global role does instability play and what would the consequences be for the work without NATO? Why is it important today? Who is the enemy? Once they had the USSR on the rise, but now what? How does it look today? Will the alliance be able to deal with major conflicts around the world? NATO is a ‘stronger alliance’ than ‘a coalition of the willing.’” “Go to the younger people and open discussions. Explain why it's still relevant.” “Make a bigger effort to communicate in the traditional media. Answer the question, ‘What does NATO stand for?’ NATO relies too much on its existing supporters without looking for new ones.” “Establish a program for youth in schools. The youth in Lithuania understands what the EU is, but not what NATO is.” “Countries need to see that doors are open and to know what they must do to enter. NATO membership must be available to the Middle East and Africa. Libya was not a great example in terms of unity. NATO needs to better coordinate its strategy.” Making use of local militaries to enhance its communication “NATO should collaborate with the Greek military and politicians to enhance public awareness on a national level.” “NATO should speak through the Spanish military forces, which is highly regarded by the population. Don't send messages via politicians who are loathed!” “Try to use spokespersons in those countries, people who are local and will advocate on NATO's behalf. This is better than the use of social media— military officials engaging the public.” Finally, one delegate suggested that NATO could enhance public awareness by using the Parliamentary Assembly more effectively. 9 Americans also believe NATO should improve its communication and outreach. The four Americans pointed to improved communication and broader outreach as measures the Alliance could take to enhance public awareness of its role and duties on the global stage. “Better communication, including more outreach and stories in the media, and news that reports the progress of the Alliance through stories.” “More outreach on the part of national stakeholders.” “NATO should have more public outreach to institutions like universities. Perhaps host a speaker series of NATO officials at schools with international relations programs.” Suggestions for improving NATO’s communication strategy towards the general public Non-Americans say NATO should focus on five key areas to increase public awareness. Suggestions for improving communication towards the general public focused on five areas: Making use of traditional media “Use the [traditional] media more; be more direct and precise in communications.” “More coverage in the traditional media; more energy creating own stories beyond the regular news channels; become more open; emphasize the political alliance and its core values.” Targeting young generations “Focus on the young people—older people already understand NATO.” Enhancing the NATO website “A better website would be a good start—with a clear purpose and easy access to facts and figures.” Increasing transparency “More transparency and focus on expenses across all NATO states. Connecting with local militaries to disseminate messages “Increased and better relationships with local military and politicians.” Americans believe NATO should clarify and increase their message in order to heighten awareness among the general public. The Americans had little to say in the way of improving the Alliance’s communication strategy towards the general public. One delegate said NATO should simply “communicate more.” Another said NATO needs to “explain in clearer terms what NATO is doing to enhance security in the 21st century.” 10 Defence Spending The general public is sceptical about spending money on defence Most non-Americans are wary of defence spending due to the down economy. When asked to describe the general mood in their countries toward defence spending, delegates offered four basic assessments, the most common related to the scepticism resulting from the economic crisis. General attitudes toward defence spending listed according to the frequency with which they were mentioned No. of iterations General mood in the country towards defence spending 9 People are opposed to defence spending due to budget constraints. 4 People are uninformed about the issue. 2 People remain neutral on the issue. 2 People are supportive of defence spending. Answers do not add up to 14 as some respondents have given multiple answers. Examples of statements made by the interviewees include: Budget constraints “People are generally sceptical of defence spending. This may be because they don't understand the importance of defence/security—the current economic climate affects this. People don't understand why you would spend money on defence when you are cutting social programs. The public is very sceptical about the aircraft purchases to replace the F-16.” “There’s a general disquiet when defence cuts are announced, but when [fiscal] waste is uncovered at the Ministry of Defence, there is a lot of resentment about those kind of ‘domestic mistakes’.” “The Cold War is over and they’re always asking for more money that we don’t have—they have to be more accountable, more responsible [stop making] false investments and wasteful spending.” Lack of understanding “The transatlantic link is the most important, and it’s under threat because of defence cuts. People don't understand globalised threat—they only want to be part of things that impact their own nation.” “There is a mixture of thinking in Western Europe—talk about social security issues vs. hard security. People don’t understand why we are in Afghanistan—countries closer to Russia think about this differently. The Economic crisis also affects their ability to pay.” Supportive of defence spending “People understand the need for defence expenditures–they're not against defence. But in France the choice is always presented as Defence vs. Education.” 11 “Greeks want to keep the status quo on defence spending. But Greeks would understand if defence spending increased because Turkey is a neighbour, and there are still concerns about Turkey.” The Americans interviewed say the US public does not support defence spending due to lack of understanding and an obvious threat. All of the Americans interviewed indicated that the mood in the US towards defence spending is not favourable. However, it’s worth noting that at least three of these delegates are Democrats. “It’s an uphill battle. Most people only see big dollar signs and not the value or what spending means to them and our allies.” “It’s difficult. Most Americans don't understand the need for defence spending since there’s no immediate threat. 2001 was a long time ago in the minds of many Americans.” “It’s terrible. People have forgotten the point of defence spending. Iraq and Afghanistan [soured] people on the need for defence spending.” “The mood is very poor. The public doesn’t understand the need. They ask, where does the money go? They understand the budget cuts, but not the effect of those cuts.” The economic crisis is, according to the delegates, one of the main reasons for not reaching the contribution level of 2% of the GDP For non-Americans, the economic crisis exacerbates issues of diverse priorities and threat perception. The issue of financing NATO is a complicated one. There are four main reasons why member countries don’t contribute 2% of their GDP to defence, according to the non- American delegates interviewed. While the economic crisis is frequently cited as an explanation for lack of contributions, we must look beyond a mere financial shortfall to understand the issue more clearly. The stress created by limited resources only highlights member countries’ priorities. Reasons member countries do not contribute 2% of their GDP listed according to the frequency with which they were mentioned No. of iterations Main reasons for member countries do not contribute 2% of their GDP 4 Lack of perceived threat 4 Distribution of funds 3 The economic crisis 3 Lack of political will Examples of quotations mentioned by the interviewees include: Lack of perceived threat “Croatians believe that they have enough security. They do not currently feel endangered. The ‘NATO umbrella’ [the existing protection from NATO] is the main reason that they don't contribute 2%.” “The Spanish believe that ‘freedom is free’. They already have it, so there’s no need to spend more.” 12 “People don’t see that there’s a threat, so they don’t want to spend money on no threat.” “NATO doesn’t provide enough [written] evidence on the need for defence expenditures…but peace dividends expire and it's too soon for that to happen.” Distribution of funds “The burden sharing system in NATO is wrong. [NATO] should use a system closer to the UN burden sharing system. For example, operational costs should be divided equally.” “It is different from country to country. The social cost in Denmark is not reflected in the defence budget (Veteran Care). Contribution to security is not the only contribution that affects security abroad. Humanitarian spending is part of it. If we spend more on humanitarian affairs then we can spend less on defence.” The economic crisis “It is unpopular to give more money during the economic crisis. There is a reason not to give, so politicians want to be sensitive—they are concerned that they might be voted out if they give away money.” “In the economic crises, budget cuts, salaries, pensions and healthcare are priorities. Military is a luxury.” “Our economy dropped 17-18% last year. This is drastic. Unfortunately, it is hard to determine where the money should be sent.” Lack of political will “The countries don’t uniformly hold defence spending at the same level. Why should it be higher? NATO hasn't sufficiently explained why it needs more.” “There is no political will. The purpose of having the Army, Air Force and Navy becomes pointless—there is no rationale.” “There is too much reliance on ‘other nations’ to step up and fulfil their obligations. Politicians blame public opinion, but it's a convenient excuse. There is a lot of resentment of other NATO nations.” Americans point to fiscal limitations for the lack of adequate defence spending. All of the Americans interviewed said financial constraints are the source of most countries’ failure to contribute 2% of GDP towards defence. “Each nation has its own fiscal priorities.” “They are facing the same fiscal crises that are faced by the United States.” “The US carries the burden. The non-2% countries may have to step-up because [the US] is stepping back due to domestic politics.” 13 NATO must convince Non-American member countries to invest in defence Non-American countries think NATO should present a clearer argument in favour of defence investing. More than half of the delegates (8/14) interviewed said that in order to persuade member countries to contribute 2% of their GDP, the Alliance has to articulate a more compelling message. Three delegates took this a step further suggesting NATO should convince member countries to contribute through its actions—if these governments see a visible benefit, they will be more likely to support funding. Finally, one delegate said the Alliance is “too nice” to nations who don’t contribute their burden share. In his opinion, NATO should be a bit more forceful. Two delegates did not offer comments on this issue. Convince countries to invest by presenting a clearer argument Five delegates mentioned persuasion as a means of garnering financial support for NATO’s missions. “NATO could increase willingness to invest more by explaining the purpose and benefits of the Alliance.” “NATO faces the challenges as to why it exists: What if Iran cooperates? What is NATO doing to protect us? What can NATO do aside from fighting wars? We need success stories (focus more on Afghanistan).” “This requires good politics after 2014. They have to convince us why it’s still important to fund those missions, convince the public that it’s worth it.” Show countries why investment matters Three delegates suggest the Alliance demonstrate the benefit of investment through its actions. “This is done through procurement—how do you get more bang for the buck? Focus on interoperability.” “They could do more of what they already do: smart defence, pooling, facilitating more multi-national cooperation, training, exercises and joint multi-national units. Invest in relevant projects over the improvements of the security alliance.” “More equal burden sharing across all NATO operations. Nations aren't willing to support an NATO Response Force because of the increased associated commitments if they're called into action.” Pressure countries to invest Two delegates took a harder line, suggesting the Alliance step up pressure on countries who don’t contribute their burden share. “NATO needs to be more outspoken about countries that don't fulfil their commitments. NATO is too polite when it comes to member nations not fulfilling their obligations. 14 Americans are unsure about how NATO could increase member countries’ willingness to invest more in defence. American delegates are aware that the US carries an unbalanced share of the financial burden for supporting NATO, but are unsure about how to motivate other countries to step up and do their part. One delegate suggested that if the Alliance articulates “a better value proposition”, member countries may be incited to give. Another surmised, “The US has been threatening to reduce our spending in Europe and on NATO, but we can’t do that and then expect to set an example and still want European nations to contribute to defence.” NATO Post 2014 NATO has the capabilities to remain relevant Non-American delegates think that, while NATO has the capabilities to remain relevant, it will have to make adjustments in the future. NATO should keep pace with the changing world. The majority of the delegates (10/14) said NATO has strong capabilities to go forward. “NATO was initially created to deal with issues other than what we are now facing,” said one delegate. “Are issues like piracy, energy and others to be discussed in NATO? Perhaps we need to reconsider.” Opinions of the remaining non-American delegates are mixed: two of the delegates said that NATO currently has the necessary capabilities to remain relevant in the future while other two believe the opposite. The notion that NATO has “great potential” and is becoming more relevant is shared by at least four of the delegates interviewed. “After the Cold War, after the Balkans, after ISAF, we still need an organization to bring in military alliance,” said one delegate, adding, “They have a role in developing countries.” Cybercrime was mentioned twice as a paramount issue the Alliance will face in the future. Also, more rapid response capabilities (such as Operation Unified Protector) are needed. “It is a field and all the people in the world are victims,” said one delegate. Thus an increased engagement in cyber-security should be considered. The issue of future funding for the Alliance was also mentioned by two delegates. “NATO must increase capabilities and decrease expenses to remain relevant” “Increase the participation of current members—it should be less about Washington and Brussels and more about member countries.” Another was concerned about logistics. “Transformation is needed,” he insisted, citing the “necessity for transportation capabilities to deal with issues in the Middle East, Africa and the Far East”. 15 Other nations mentioned by delegates were China and Iran—these were mentioned as countries that will “test NATO’s non-combat capabilities.” That said, most agree that “a lot of work remains to be done.” A complete review of Alliance capabilities was suggested: “Especially in Europe, NATO needs to conduct a capabilities review to determine the differences between what they have and what they can actually use.” Finally, one delegate suggested that, “NATO would be more relevant if EU countries could fulfil some of the US capabilities in order to ensure complete interoperability.” American delegates put forward three areas NATO should focus on. Three facilities were put forth by the American delegates as areas NATO should focus on in order to maintain relevant capabilities in the future: Interoperability: Coordination between NATO nations, as seen with ISAF; Deployability: NATO members must develop more flexible and easily deployable capabilities; Deterrence: NATO needs to remain committed to deterrence and security. The end of ISAF: How will it affect NATO? Non-American delegates have mixed feelings with regards to the end of the ISAF mission. While some delegates are critical, most feel engagement in ISAF has actually improved NATO in terms of strength, communications and interoperability between contributing nations. The end of ISAF is perceived by delegates in four ways: With no clear mission, public support will wane “Once ISAF has wound down, what will be the point of NATO? There’s no sense of urgency, and people will say, ‘we shouldn’t have to pay money since there’s no operation.’” “What does NATO do now? Is it always useful? Where’s the evidence?” “It will affect NATO because we have a huge, common, on-the-ground mission. NATO will need to find a joint project to maintain the experience in Afghanistan.” “When NATO no longer has Afghanistan to justify itself, people won’t understand why it was there. How do we continue to stay involved there?” Disengaging from Afghanistan will allow NATO to build relationships with other nations and focus on other missions “It will save money in the short term however we don’t know if we’ll be going back in the future.” “The end of ISAF is not the end of NATO. It will make people think of the Alliance less through the lens of military ops.” “NATO needs to build better relationships with other international organizations and each nation state to better exercise their elements of power.” 16 “It won’t affect NATO as much as it could affect individual forces. They need more training and more participation in counter-piracy. The military should be active in the field.” “The change will be from ‘NATO engage’ to ‘NATO prepare’—the Alliance will have to practice and change its political mission.” The end of ISAF puts NATO in a tenuous position. The affect will be determined by how things in Afghanistan play out “There is a reputational risk—a risk of roll-back. The general public will question NATO’s abilities to achieve missions.” “Afghanistan helped to strengthen NATO. If there is no war to fight, the Alliance becomes too excessive. If Afghanistan collapses, it could hurt NATO’s image.” “The end of ISAF could affect NATO’s coordination with military operations, including modernization (preparation is linked to the Spanish military’s ISAF mission).” “It will depend a lot on what events occur after the end of ISAF. No one wants another Afghan-like war, but too much tranquillity could cause NATO to wallow and become complacent.” NATO should stay in Afghanistan “NATO should stay involved in Afghanistan beyond 2014 or loose operational capabilities.” American delegates have a high opinion of the ISAF mission. From the American point of view, ISAF has been a very successful mission for NATO. Asked how ending it will affect the Alliance, all four delegates suggested NATO should parlay the valuable lessons learned through this initiative into future endeavours. The mission has left NATO in a better and stronger position. Going forward, the Alliance will have to ensure that it does not lose the ground it has gained through ISAF. “With the end of ISAF, NATO will return to its original focus: deterrence.” “ISAF has improved the Alliance. Now let’s see how we can capitalize on those improvements.” “ISAF has been very good for coordination and communication across the Alliance. We must not let those gains slip away.” Both non-American and American delegates agree that NATO will remain relevant post 2014 More than half of the Non-American delegates think NATO will remain relevant after 2014… More than half of the delegates interviewed (8/14) are convinced that NATO will continue to remain relevant after 2014. Reasons given included the persistence of international terrorism, instability in Africa, cyber issues and a need for more intelligence. “The global security environment is a multipolar world—this will allow NATO to remain relevant,” said one delegate, who also mentioned China, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and capability building by member countries. 17 The others feel the Alliance will remain relevant if it takes certain measures to do so. Among the actions the Alliance should take to ensure its relevance are communication, reformation and discovering a new mission. “NATO needs to actively work at it…the Parliamentary Assembly is very necessary and keeps the Alliance relevant.” “NATO needs to communicate its value to the nations’ populations—the value of the transatlantic link. It must also reorganize to EU-ARF (ASEAN Regional Forum).” “NATO should be more forceful as an organization. It must transform its Fast Action capabilities (like Libya) and Quick Response Force.” “NATO needs an active role in global affairs or its influence will decline.” … and so do all of the American delegates interviewed. All the American delegates interviewed said that NATO will continue to be relevant post 2014. Two of the American delegates said NATO will remain “very relevant” post 2014, and the other two agreed, although not as effusively. “It will remain very relevant. Threats to the US, her allies and NATO member nations are not going away. NATO may not be at the forefront of people’s minds, but it is still important to maintain.” “NATO must remain committed to deterrence and the defence of member nations. NATO must complement actions taken by other international organizations.” “ISAF has increased NATO’s credibility, so that will help it to remain relevant.” NATO’s priority should be to focus on developing its capabilities Non-American delegates listed numerous priorities for the Alliance post 2014. Suggestions for NATO’s priorities post 2014 were myriad and varied depending on the demographics of the individual being interviewed. The most prevalent suggestion offered was development of capabilities (mentioned 11 times). Relationship building (mentioned 6 times) and enhancing civil solutions (mentioned 5 times) were also common themes that emerged. Top priorities parliamentarians think NATO should have for the future are shown below in order of importance 18 Rank NATO Priority 1 Developing capabilities 2 Building relationships 3 Civil solutions 4 Terrorism 5 Cyber security 6 Humanitarian efforts 7 Nation building 8 Collective security 9 Middle East, Asia, Africa 10 British Military Doctrine In particular, more details related to the first three priorities are listed below: NATO should focus on developing capabilities Expeditionary capabilities C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) Interoperability High readiness Rapid Response Flexibility to respond Strategic mobility Tactical mobility Identification of future threats NATO should strengthen its relationships “Develop relationships that would allow NATO to exercise soft power within the EU, UN and national governments.” “Liaise with UN/EU/AU to create mobile training teams.” “Strengthening relationships between members will make a stronger Alliance.” “Continue to improve relations with the EU.” NATO should pursue civil solutions “Priorities should be more of a civil dimension –nation building - conscious of the strength of states - to counter terrorism.” “Develop a new kind of security concept that the public can understand (post-Balkans, post-Afghanistan). NATO should try to uphold international law in conflict situations.” “Beyond war, what can NATO do? Natural disasters? Humanitarian disasters? Maybe help with disasters to keep in front of people. The Alliance needs to find diplomatic situations.” 19 American delegates said the Alliance should focus on training, enlargement and interoperability post 2014. While both Non-American and American delegates suggested the development of specific capabilities as a priority for the Alliance going forward, they seem to focus on different areas. Both Non-American and American delegates listed interoperability as an important priority for NATO. In addition, the Americans stressed more training exercises, enlargement and defence investment as priorities. One delegate suggested that NATO’s priority should be to support enlargement by including the admission of Bosnia and other Balkans countries in the Alliance. 20 Conclusions & Recommendations Communication While Americans are generally satisfied with NATO’s communication towards them, NATO should improve its communication efforts with non-Americans. In particular it should consider making better use of the General Media, launching a Social Media campaign and building one-to-one relationships with the delegates. They should also connect more regularly with Members of Parliament. Only a minority of the general public (both non-American and American) understands what NATO does. To enhance public awareness, NATO should project a clearer and more targeted message, in particular, by making use of local militaries to enhance communication. NATO should consider improving its use of traditional media; targeting young generations and enhancing the NATO website in order to ramp up its communication strategy and reach a broader audience. Defence Spending Both Non-American and American delegates say their countries are sceptical about spending money on defence. Most are wary of defence spending due to the down economy, which has motivated them to direct funds toward more pressing needs. The general lack of a perceived threat has exacerbated this problem. In keeping with this opinion, delegates said the economic crisis is also one of the main reasons for the failure of many nations to contribute 2% of their GDP to defence. In order to bolster contributions, NATO must convince member countries that their investment is valuable. This can be done through articulating a clearer message and demonstrating inherent value through action. NATO Post 2014 The large majority of non-American and American delegates interviewed think NATO will remain relevant post 2014, with Americans unanimously and strongly supporting this notion. Both non-Americans and Americans also think NATO currently possesses the basic capabilities to remain relevant. That said, numerous suggestions were offered pertaining to adjustments the Alliance will have to make to ensure relevancy—most apply to further developing specific capabilities. The end of ISAF is viewed with mixed emotions by non-Americans. Some say that, with no clear mission, public support will wane. Others believe disengaging from Afghanistan will allow NATO to build relationships with other international organisations and focus on other missions. Finally, one respondent thinks that leaving Afghanistan is a mistake. Americans, on the other hand, are very clear in their belief that the ISAF mission was a success that puts NATO in a better position to move forward. The Alliance, they say, should parlay the valuable lessons learned through this initiative into future endeavours. NATO’s priority now should be to ensure that it does not lose the ground it gained through ISAF and to further develop its capabilities with the knowledge and experience it has developed through the mission. 21 Appendix I Methodology Qualitative study We have conducted a qualitative assessment by carrying out in-depth interviews with 18 parliamentarians (delegates) of the Parliamentary Transatlantic Forum in Washington, D.C. on December 2nd and 3rd, 2013. The questionnaire for the interviews was a follow-up to the research study conducted during the NATO Parliamentary Assembly in Dubrovnik. The three areas of focus were: NATO’s Communication Defence Spending NATO’ Post 2014 The interviewers asked open ended questions to capture as much information as possible from the interviewees and give them the opportunity to provide in-depth answers to the questions asked. The final list of questions was also aligned with NATO’s specifications in order to guarantee that all of the required topics were covered. Interviews were conducted in face-to-face meetings in Washington D.C. during the NATO Parliamentary Transatlantic Forum with the non-American delegates as well as with the Secretary of the US delegation. The interviews with the three other US delegates have been conducted over the telephone to facilitate the recruitment process. For this study, we put forth considerable effort to connect with as many US congressmen as possible (members of the NPA), however only two attended the Washington Transatlantic Forum. We interviewed both and secured interviews with two others who agreed to be interviewed separately. Concerning the non-American participants, we intentionally reached out to parliamentarians from countries with low or no representation in the Dubrovnik study in order to expand our findings. Note: It has been particularly challenging to interview American delegates as most of them refused to participate to this research project. Each American delegate, preselected by the NPA, was called or emailed at least twice, and in some cases up to four times during the two weeks following the NATO Parliamentary Transatlantic Forum. It should be taken into consideration for future studies that this exercise has proven that most US Congressional offices have a “we do not participate in any surveys/questionnaires for any reason” policy in place which increases the difficulty to recruit such high-level targets in market research studies. 22 Analysis Each question has been analysed both separately and within the overall context of the questionnaire. We present the results per type of country (non-American vs. American) and political party, when relevant. These findings are not generalizable to the whole population of parliamentarians as the sample is not representative. Answers from the in-depth interviews provide more insight on distinct topics, but they cannot be understood as generalisations. Our findings explicitly identify answers that came from the interviews. As all questions were open-ended, they required the interviewee to use his/her own words to explain the answers. In this case, we classified the answers by key messages, measured the iteration of similar answers and put the key messages into context in order to infer the main findings. Interviewee profile In order to expand the findings of the Dubrovnik study, we have intentionally reached out to parliamentarians from countries with low or no representation in the previous study. Additionally, our team spent two weeks reaching out to US Members of Congress before the Washington Transatlantic Forum and after the event in order to have a sufficient representation of US delegates in the sample. The sample interviewed is composed as follows: Country United States 4 United Kingdom 2 Germany 2 Canada 1 Croatia 1 Denmark 1 Estonia 1 France 1 Greece 1 Latvia 1 Lithuania 1 Spain 1 The Netherlands 1 Total 18 Political Group Affiliation Conservatives, Christian Democrats and Associates 6 Alliance of Liberals and Democrats 1 Socialist 1 Freedom and Democracy 1 American Democrat 3 Other 6 Total 18 23 Gender Female 2 Male 16 Total 18 24 Appendix II Discussion guide Respondent name (optional): Gender: □ Female □ Male Country: Political Group Affiliation: □ Conservatives, Christian Democrats and Associates □ Alliance of Liberals and Democrats □ Socialist □ Other I. COMMUNICATION Q1. How satisfied are you with NATO’s communication towards you in terms of: Frequency: Quality: Scope: Transparency: Q2. What should NATO do to improve its communication strategy with you? Q3. How effective do you think NATO’s communication efforts are in your country? Q4. To what extent do you think people in your country understand what NATO does? Q5. What should NATO do to enhance public awareness of its role and duties on the global stage, particularly on a national level? Q6. What should NATO do to improve its communication strategy towards the general public? II. DEFENCE SPENDING & NATO POST 2014 Q7. How would you describe the general mood in your country toward defence spending? Q8. Why do you believe that most member countries do not contribute 2% of their GDP to defence? Q9. What could NATO do in order to increase member countries’ willingness to invest more in defence? Q10. To what extent do you think NATO has the right capabilities to remain relevant in the future? Q11. In your opinion, how will the end of ISAF affect NATO? Q12. To what extent do you believe NATO will remain relevant post 2014? Q13. What should NATO’s priorities be post 2014? 25 PwC Luxembourg (www.pwc.lu) is the largest professional services firm in Luxembourg with 2,300 people employed from 57 different countries. It provides audit, tax and advisory services including management consulting, transaction, financing and regulatory advice to a wide variety of clients from local and middle market entrepreneurs to large multinational companies operating from Luxembourg and the Greater Region. It helps its clients create the value they are looking for by giving comfort to the capital markets and providing advice through an industry focused approach. The global PwC network is the largest provider of professional services in audit, tax and advisory. We’re a network of independent firms in 158 countries and employ more than 180,000 people. Tell us what matters to you and find out more by visiting us at www.pwc.com and www.pwc.lu.