Brev og rapport om erhvervsøkonomiske konsekvenser for fiskerierhvervet ved de foreslåede kvoter for torsk og sild i Østersøen for 2020

Udenrigsministeriet
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DK-1448 København K
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E-mail: um@um.dk
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Medlemmerne af Folketingets Europaudvalg
Bilag Sagsnummer Kontor
3 2019-511 EKN 9. oktober 2019
BREV SAMT RAPPORT
Erhvervsøkonomiske konsekvenser for fiskerierhvervet ved de fore-
slåede kvoter for torsk og sild i Østersøen for 2020
Til underretning for Folketingets Europaudvalg vedlægges Miljø- og Fø-
devareministeriets brev vedrørende rapport fra Københavns Universitet,
Institut for Ressourceøkonomi (IFRO), om de erhvervsøkonomiske
konsekvenser for fiskerierhvervet ved de foreslåede kvoter for torsk og
sild i Østersøen for 2020, samt dansk resumé af rapporten.
Materialet sendes tillige til Folketingets Miljø- og Fødevareudvalg.
Jeppe Kofod
Europaudvalget 2019
KOM (2019) 0380 Bilag 4
Offentligt


9. oktober 2019
Resumé af IFRO’s rapport om erhvervsøkonomiske
konsekvenser af de foreslåede kvoter for Østersøen for 2020 for
torsk og vestlig sild
I slutningen af august 2019 fremsatte Kommissionen forslag til kvoter for
2020 i Østersøen. Af Kommissionens forslag fremgår det, at der lægges op
til store reduktioner for torsk i den vestlige Østersø, sild i den vestlige
Østersø, og at torsk i den østlige Østersø kun skal være en bifangstkvote.
Miljø- og Fødevareministeriet bad derfor Københavns Universitet, Institut
for Fødevare- og Ressourceøkonomi, om at udarbejde en analyse af de
erhvervsøkonomiske konsekvenser ved de foreslåede kvoter for 2020. Det
kan bemærkes, at IFRO blev bedt om at se på en 0-kvote for torsk i østlige
Østersø. Kommissionen har efterfølgende foreslået en reduktion på 92 %
for torsk i den østlige Østersø, så IFRO’s estimater er derfor muligvis en
lille smule for høje.
Rapporten foreligger nu, og herunder fremgår hovedkonklusionerne fra
analysen:
Hvis kvoterne for torsk og sild i den vestlige Østersø (område 22-24)
reduceres, som foreslået af Kommissionen, og hvis der fastsættes en 0-
kvote for torsk i den østlige Østersø (område 25-32), vil det have
økonomiske konsekvenser for de fartøjer, som deltager i fiskeriet. I 2018
var den samlede landingsværdi for de fartøjer, som landede torsk og sild
fra område 22-24, og som landede torsk fra område 25-32, på i alt 286 mio.
kr. Hvis kun landingerne af torsk og sild bliver reduceret til de foreslåede
kvoteniveauer for 2020, vil det medføre, at den samlede landingsværdi
bliver reduceret til 241 mio. kr. Denne vil blive yderligere reduceret til 227
mio. kr., hvis landingerne af relevante bifangstarter også bliver reduceret i
samme forhold som torskelandingerne. Estimaterne viser, at reduktionen i
landingsværdi vil være mellem 45 og 59 mio. kr., svarende til en reduktion
på henholdsvis 16 og 21 %.
Reduktioner i landingsværdien vil også medføre reduktioner i fiskernes
variable omkostninger. Disse vil dog være mindre end reduktionen i
landingsværdien. Derfor vil nettooverskuddet blive reduceret, især for de
mindre fartøjer under 15 meter, som udgør størstedelen af fartøjerne, som
fisker i Østersøen. Følgevirkningerne vil blive større, hvis også landingerne
for relevante bifangstarter reduceres.
Måske kan konsekvenserne i et vist omfang reduceres som følge af en
omlægning af fiskeriet, men for særligt de mindre fartøjer kan det være
vanskeligt at skifte til andre fiskerier eller tage længere til havs, selv om det
skulle vise sig muligt at købe kvoter i andre farvandsområder. Desuden kan
Europaudvalget 2019
KOM (2019) 0380 Bilag 4
Offentligt
2
sådanne ændringer af fiskeriet være dyre at igangsætte, da der f.eks. skal
indkøbes nyt fiskegrej, eller fiskes i områder længere væk hjemmefra.
For følgeindustrien og forarbejdningsindustrien på land vil der også være
en negativ effekt af kvotereduktionerne. Det er dog kun muligt i begrænset
omfang at analysere disse effekter. Det er relevant at se på data og
information om handelsstrømme, strukturen i forarbejdningsindustrien,
generering af arbejde i serviceerhvervene, afledte effekter på turisme osv.,
men mulighederne for en analyse er begrænsede med de tilgængelige data.
For fiskeflåden, serviceerhvervene og forarbejdningsindustrien vil
konsekvenserne på kort og lang sigt afhænge af, hvor hurtigt
bestandssituationen forbedres. Hvis bestandene ikke forbedres hurtigt,
forventes det, at et stort antal fartøjer, primært mindre fartøjer under 15
meter, vil forlade fiskeriet i løbet af kort tid, hvilket vil give en afledt affekt
på serviceerhvervene og forarbejdningsindustrien. Et fartøj, som forlader
fiskeriet, vil betyde et stort kapitaltab for fartøjets ejere, fordi der til disse
fartøjer fortsat vil være store faste omkostninger, som ikke kan forventes
dækket, hvis fartøjet sælges.


Miljø- og Fødevareministeriet • Slotsholmsgade 12 • 1216 København K
Tlf. 38 14 21 42 • Fax 33 14 50 42 • CVR 12854358 • EAN 5798000862005 • mfvm@mfvm.dk • www.mfvm.dk
Den 9. oktober 2019
MFVM 912
Til udvalgets orientering fremsendes hermed rapport fra Københavns Universitet, Institut for
Ressourceøkonomi (IFRO), om de erhvervsøkonomiske konsekvenser for fiskerierhvervet ved de
foreslåede kvoter for torsk og sild i Østersøen for 2020, samt dansk resume af rapporten.
Mogens Jensen / Jesper Wulff Pedersen
Folketingets Europaudvalg
Christiansborg
1240 København K
Europaudvalget 2019
KOM (2019) 0380 Bilag 4
Offentligt


Financial consequences for Danish
fishermen following reductions in the
Baltic Sea cod and herring quotas
Jesper Levring Andersen
Peder Andersen
2019 / 17
Europaudvalget 2019
KOM (2019) 0380 Bilag 4
Offentligt
IFRO Commissioned Work 2019/17
(IFRO Udredning 2019/17)
Financial consequences for Danish fishermen following reductions in the Baltic Sea cod and herring quotas
Authors: Jesper Levring Andersen, Peder Andersen
Internal scientific quality control: Ayoe Hoff has commented on the manuscript. The responsibility of the
published content, however, lies entirely with the authors.
This work is commissioned by the Danish Ministry of Environment and Food under a common agreement
between the ministry and IFRO.
Note: This version is not an officially issued report and it is not proof-read. Therefore, it should not be cited.
Find the full series IFRO Commissioned Work (mostly in Danish: IFRO Udredning) here:
http://ifro.ku.dk/publikationer/ifro_serier/udredninger/
Department of Food and Resource Economics
University of Copenhagen
Rolighedsvej 25
DK-1958 Frederiksberg
www.ifro.ku.dk/english/
2
Contents
Introduction....................................................................................................................................................... 3
1. Description of the Danish fishery for cod and herring in Baltic Sea.......................................................... 4
2. Financial consequences for the fishermen.............................................................................................. 11
2.1 Consequences of other cod quota levels in subdivision 25-32 ........................................................... 16
3. Consequences for the onshore services and processing industry .......................................................... 19
4. Possibilities for adapting the fishery ....................................................................................................... 20
Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................................... 21
Annex 1 Map of the Baltic Sea with subdivisions............................................................................................ 23
Annex 2 Danish quota exchanges.................................................................................................................... 24
3
Introduction
The end of August 20191
, the European Commission put forward a proposal for the fishing
opportunities in 2020 of cod (Gadus morhua) in subdivisions 22–24 (western Baltic Sea), cod in
subdivisions 25-32 (eastern Baltic Sea) and herring (Clupea harengus) in subdivisions 22-24 (western
Baltic Sea). See Annex 1 for the location of subdivisions.
For cod in subdivisions 22-24, the proposal sets the Total Allowable Catches (TAC) to 3,065 tonnes,
which will result in a Danish cod quota of 1,337 tonnes in 2020. Furthermore, the proposal forbids
catches of cod in subdivision 24, thus implying that the quota can only be caught in subdivision 22
or subdivision 23. For cod in subdivisions 25-32, a TAC of zero (‘no TAC’) is proposed in 2020, thus
resulting in a zero Danish cod quota. Finally, the TAC for herring in subdivisions 22-24 is proposed
set to 2,651 tonnes, resulting in a Danish quota of 372 tonnes in 2020.
The development in the three quotas allocated to Denmark can be seen in Table 1. For the years 2016-
2019, the quotas includes any quota exchanges undertaken during the respective years, see Annex 2
for the quota exchanges undertaken during each year.
Table 1 Danish quotas including quota exchanges 2016-2020 (1,000 tonnes)
Quota species Subdivisions 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*
Cod 22-24 6,751 3,211 2,592 4,474 1,337
25-32 9,940 8,081 7,348 5,565 0
Herring 22-24 6,227 7,041 4,550 1,819 372
Source: The Danish Fisheries Agency.
Note: * Proposed Danish quotas for 2020.
Based on the proposed TACs, the Danish Ministry of Environment and Food has requested an
analysis of the financial consequences for Danish fishermen of these proposed quotas for 2020, the
possibilities for the fishermen to adapt their fishery to this situation, the possible implications for the
onshore services and processing industry and the impact on the employment in the fishing sector.
The Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen has addressed these
questions through the research-based consultancy contract that the Department has with the Ministry
of Environment and Food.
The requested analysis will be undertaken in this note using the same data sources and approach as
used in Andersen, Frost and Andersen (2016)2
.
1
European Commission (COM_2019_380_1), Proposal for a Council Regulation fixing for 2020 the fishing
opportunities for certain fish stocks and groups of fish stocks applicable in the Baltic Sea and amending Regulation
(EU) 2019/124, as regards certain fishing opportunities in other waters.
2
Andersen, J. L., Frost, H. S., & Andersen, P., (2016). Financial consequences for Danish fishermen following a
reduction in the cod quota for the western Baltic Sea, 15 p., (IFRO Commissioned Work; No. 2016/16).
4
1. Description of the Danish fishery for cod and herring in Baltic Sea
Based on data from the Danish Fisheries Agency, the Danish fishery for cod and herring in the Baltic
Sea is described below based on the latest available year, 2018.
By the end of 2018, the Danish fishing fleet consisted of 2,157 vessels. Overall, 322 vessels registered
in the fleet register by the end of 2018 landed cod and/or herring caught in either subdivisions 22-24
and/or subdivisions 25-32. Of these 322 vessels, 32 vessels landed herring caught in subdivisions 22-
24, 298 vessels landed cod caught in subdivisions 22-24, while 43 vessels landed cod caught in
subdivisions 25-32.
The distribution of the 322 vessels on length, gear and commercial groups is shown in Table 2. There
were 124 commercial vessels having a total yearly landings value above 270,000 DKK (36,000 €)
from their entire fishery, while the remaining 198 vessels were less active-commercial having a
landings value below 270,000 DKK, but above 0. These less active-commercial fishermen are
primarily part time fishermen, who have registered landing values so low that they most likely also
have another income in order to sustain a reasonable living standard.
Table 2 Number of vessels landing cod and/or herring from the Baltic Sea, 2018
Length Primary gear* Commercial vessels**
Less active-commercial
vessels Total
<12m Gillnet/hook 32 112 144
Dory/trap 6 53 59
Seine/gillnet/trawl 24 33 57
Trawl 6 6
Total 68 198 266
12-15m Seine/gillnet/trawl 7 7
Trawl 10 10
Total 17 17
15-18m Seine/gillnet/trawl 7 7
Trawl 22 22
Total 29 29
18-40m Trawl 10 10
Total 10 10
Total 124 198 322
Source: The Danish Fisheries Agency Vessel Register and Sales Notes Register 9th
August 2019.
Note: * For discretionary reasons, all fleets with less than 5 vessels have been included in other fleet with
the most similar characteristics. The following changes have been made for the commercial vessels: 1)
Gillnet/hook and seine 12-15m has been included in seine/gillnet/trawl 12-15m, 2) Gillnet/hook 11-18m
has been included in seine/gillnet/trawl 15-18m, 3) seine and trawl 18-24m and trawl 24-40m have been
included in trawl 18-40m, and 4) mussel fishery has been included in seine/gillnet/trawl less than 12m. For
the less-active commercial vessels, trawl less than 12m, seine/gillnet/trawl, seine and trawl 12-15m have all
been included in seine/gillnet/trawl less than 12m.
Note: ** A commercial vessel has an yearly landings value above 270,000 DKK, while a less active-
commercial vessel has an yearly landings value below 270,000 DKK.
5
How the economic dependency on the fishery in the Baltic Sea was in 2018 for the 322 vessels
registered in the fleet register by the end of 2018 is shown in Table 3. The table shows the overall
dependency of fishing in the Baltic Sea, and not only the dependency on cod and herring. The reason
is that the fishery, especially for cod, can give rise to bycatches of a range of other species, thus a
reduction in these quotas can imply a reduction in the landings of these other species as well. Herring
is caught in directly targeted fisheries.
Out of the 322 vessels, 253 vessels had a 90-100% economic dependency (measured by landings
value) on fishery in the Baltic Sea. For the commercial vessels, 65 of these had a dependency between
90-100%, thus comprising approximately 50% of the 124 commercial vessels active in the Baltic Sea.
The remaining commercial vessels had a lower dependency, and 32 had a dependency below 30%.
For the less active-commercial vessels, 188 vessels out of 198 vessels had a dependency above 90%.
Table 3 Vessel economic dependency on fishery in the Baltic Sea, 2018
Commercial vessel Less active -
commercial vessels Total
Interval <12m 12-15m 15-18m 18-40m Total <12m Total
90-100% 52 10 3 65 188 188 253
80-89% 1 1 2 2 2 4
70-79% 2 2 2
60-69% 4 1 5 1 1 6
50-59% 1 4 5 2 2 7
40-49% 2 1 2 1 6 1 1 7
30-39% 3 4 7 3 3 10
20-29% 3 1 6 1 11 11
10-19% 2 1 3 6 6
0-9% 1 3 3 8 15 1 1 16
Total 68 17 29 10 124 198 198 322
Source: The Danish Fisheries Agency Vessel Register and Sales Notes Register 9th
August 2019.
Note: See note to Table 2 regarding adjustments for discretionary reasons.
Table 4 and Table 5 show the total landings weight and value of cod in the Baltic Sea divided between
subdivisions 22-23, 24 and 25-32. In total, 5,193 tonnes of Baltic Sea cod was landed in 2018 at a
value of 55.3 million DKK. It is the commercial vessels, which lands the majority of the cod caught.
6
Table 4 Total landings weight of cod in the Baltic Sea per fleet (tonnes)
Commercial Less active-commercial Total cod
Baltic Sea
Length Primary gear
Sub 22-
23 Sub 24
Sub 25-
32
Sub 22-
23 Sub 24
Sub 25-
32
<12m Gillnet/hook 522 102 4 118 70 35 850
Dory/trap 16 13 35 4 1 68
Seine/gillnet/trawl 175 51 325 33 29 13 626
Trawl 89 47 76 213
12-15m Seine/gillnet/trawl 74 1 75
Trawl 26 175 150 351
15-18m Seine/gillnet/trawl 123 222 600 944
Trawl 188 404 946 1,538
18-40m Trawl 21 76 431 527
Total 1,233 1,090 2,532 186 103 49 5,193
Source: The Danish Fisheries Agency Vessel Register and Sales Notes Register 9th
August 2019.
Note: See note to Table 2 regarding adjustments for discretionary reasons.
Table 5 Total landings value of cod in the Baltic Sea per fleet (1,000 DKK)
Commercial Less active-commercial Total cod
Baltic Sea
Length Primary gear
Sub 22-
23 Sub 24
Sub 25-
32
Sub 22-
23 Sub 24
Sub 25-
32
<12m Gillnet/hook 8,897 1,007 35 1,853 730 312 12,833
Dory/trap 205 100 480 33 4 821
Seine/gillnet/trawl 2,544 432 2,279 480 329 92 6,156
Trawl 1,339 362 597 2,297
12-15m Seine/gillnet/trawl 1,239 13 1,252
Trawl 366 1,522 1,105 2,993
15-18m Seine/gillnet/trawl 2,573 2,531 5,087 10,191
Trawl 3,009 3,654 7,662 14,326
18-40m Trawl 338 886 3,249 4,474
Total 20,509 10,506 20,015 2,813 1,091 409 55,343
Source: The Danish Fisheries Agency Vessel Register and Sales Notes Register 9th
August 2019.
Note: See note to Table 1 regarding adjustments for discretionary reasons.
The landings of herring in the western Baltic Sea comprised in total 4,095 tonnes in 2018, giving a
landings value of 12.4 million DKK, cf. Table 6 and 7.
7
Table 6 Total landings weight of herring in the western Baltic Sea per fleet (tonnes)
Commercial Less active-commercial Total herring
Baltic Sea
Length Primary gear Sub 22-23 Sub 24 Sub 22-23 Sub 24
<12m Gillnet/hook 70 2 72
Dory/trap 8 6 3 0 17
Seine/gillnet/trawl 1 10 11
12-15m Trawl 4 4
15-18m Trawl 65 2,901 2,966
18-40m Trawl 1,026 1,026
Total 143 3,937 5 10 4,095
Source: The Danish Fisheries Agency Vessel Register and Sales Notes Register 9th
August 2019.
Note: See note to Table 2 regarding adjustments for discretionary reasons.
Table 7 Total landings value of herring in the western Baltic Sea per fleet (1,000 DKK)
Commercial Less active-commercial Total herring
Baltic Sea
Length Primary gear Sub 22-23 Sub 24 Sub 22-23 Sub 24
<12m Gillnet/hook 266 6 272
Dory/trap 23 16 13 0 53
Seine/gillnet/trawl 4 27 31
12-15m Trawl 14 10 14
15-18m Trawl 192 8,726 8,918
18-40m Trawl 3,100 3,100
Total 482 11,856 23 27 12,388
Source: The Danish Fisheries Agency Vessel Register and Sales Notes Register 9th
August 2019.
Note: See note to Table 2 regarding adjustments for discretionary reasons.
The distribution of the landings value by fleet in the western and eastern Baltic Sea is shown in Table
8 and Table 9. The dependencies vary a lot. While cod is observed to be of high importance for many
fleets, only two fleets (trawlers 15-18m and 18-24m) obtain a high landings value from herring.
8
Table 8 Distribution of landings value on species in the western Baltic Sea, 2018
Length Primary gear Cod
Other
round
fish Flatfish
Her-
ring
Reduc-
tion
species
Other
species
Total landings
value
(1,000 DKK)
Commercial
<12m Gillnet/hook 42% 0% 46% 1% 0% 11% 23,686
Dory/trap 8% 0% 25% 1% 0% 65% 3,691
Seine/gillnet/trawl 25% 0% 73% 0% 1% 1% 11,895
Trawl 65% 1% 33% 0% 0% 1% 2,616
12-15m Seine/gillnet/trawl 25% 0% 71% 0% 0% 3% 4,916
Trawl 26% 0% 62% 0% 12% 0% 7,336
15-18m Seine/gillnet/trawl 62% 0% 37% 0% 0% 0% 8,199
Trawl 24% 0% 30% 32% 13% 0% 27,538
18-40m Trawl 25% 1% 10% 64% 0% 0% 4,849
Less
active-
comme
rcial
<12m Gillnet/hook 37% 0% 43% 0% 0% 20% 7,031
Dory/trap 14% 0% 20% 0% 0% 66% 3,667
Seine/gillnet/trawl 37% 0% 55% 1% 2% 5% 2,199
Source: The Danish Fisheries Agency Vessel Register and Sales Notes Register 9th
August 2019.
Note: See note to Table 2 regarding adjustments for discretionary reasons.
Table 9 Distribution of landings value on species in the eastern Baltic Sea, 2018
Length Primary gear Cod
Other
round
fish Flatfish
Her-
ring
Reduc-
tion
species
Other
species
Total landings
value
(1,000 DKK)
Commercial
<12m Gillnet/hook 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 96% 922
Seine/gillnet/trawl 89% 0% 8% 0% 0% 3% 2,568
Trawl 89% 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 670
12-15m Trawl 91% 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 1,213
15-18m Seine/gillnet/trawl 93% 0% 3% 0% 4% 0% 5,482
Trawl 66% 0% 12% 4% 18% 0% 11,634
18-40m Trawl 72% 0% 28% 0% 0% 0% 4,536
Less
active-
comme
rcial
<12m Gillnet/hook 38% 0% 34% 0% 0% 28% 829
Dory/trap 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4
Seine/gillnet/trawl 84% 0% 16% 0% 0% 0% 110
Source: The Danish Fisheries Agency Vessel Register and Sales Notes Register 9th
August 2019.
Note: See note to Table 2 regarding adjustments for discretionary reasons.
The geographical location of the vessels landing cod and/or herring from the Baltic Sea is shown in
Table 9, where the vessels are registered according to the regulatory district they belong to. Most of
the vessels are as expected located around the Baltic Sea or close to, i.e. Roskilde (primary harbours
Gilleleje, Næstved, Nykøbing Falster, København, and Korsør), Fredericia (primary harbours
Svendborg, Odense and Sønderborg) and Bornholm. In these municipalities, the fishing activities
9
contribution to a varying degree to the local economy through the use of the local harbours and their
facilities. The importance increases with increasing distance to larger cities.
Table 10 Distribution of vessels between districts, 2018
Commercial vessels
Less active-
commercial Total
District <12m 12-15m 15-18m 18-40m <12m
Roskilde 29 7 9 2 93 140
Fredericia 26 5 8 1 69 109
Bornholm 9 3 10 3 31 56
Esbjerg 3 1 1 1 6
Nykøbing Mors 1 4 1 6
Randers 3 3
Frederikshavn 1 1 2
Total 68 17 29 10 198 322
Source: The Danish Fisheries Agency Vessel Register and Sales Notes Register 9th
August 2019.
Note: See note to Table 2 regarding adjustments for discretionary reasons.
A more detailed description of where the cod and herring are landed, is presented in Table 11, where
the distribution of the cod and herring landings value from subdivisions 22-24 divided on
municipalities is shown, while Table 12 shows the landing distribution for cod in subdivisions 25-32.
Only the 10 municipalities with the highest landings value from cod and herring in subdivisions 22-
24 and 25-32 respectively, are included in the tables, which for cod in subdivisions 22-24 covers 81%
of the total landings value of cod in this subdivision, while the percentage for herring in subdivisions
22-24 is 100% and for cod in subdivisions 25-32 likewise is 100%. By comparing the landings value
of cod and herring from subdivisions 22-24 and 25-32 to the total landings value in the respective
municipalities, an impression of the dependency originating directly for these fisheries is obtained.
10
Table 11 Distribution of cod and herring landings value by municipality in
subdivisions 22-24 for the municipalities with highest value of landings of cod and
herring, 2018
Landings of cod from subdivisions 22-24 Landings of herring from subdivisions 22-24
Municipality
Value
(1,000 DKK)
Municipality
dependency (%) Municipality
Value
(1,000 DKK)
Municipality
dependency (%)
Langeland 6,097 31 Vordingborg 5,459 40
Lolland 4,440 42 Stevns 3,332 45
Bornholm 3,698 17 Gribskov 3,279 5
Vordingborg 2,968 22 Fredensborg 259 10
Poland* 2,952 17 Slagelse 23 0
Ærø 2,359 38 Middelfart 11 3
Gribskov 1,936 3 Aabenraa 7 1
Dragør 1,807 79 Faxe 7 2
Rudersdal 1,305 45 Fredericia 4 1
Kerteminde 994 15 Bornholm 3 0
Source: The Danish Fisheries Agency Vessel Register and Sales Notes Register 9th
August 2019.
Note: Poland is included to show that landings here are also important.
Table 12 Distribution of cod landings by municipality in subdivisions 25-32, 2018
Landings of cod from subdivisions 25-32
Municipality Value (1,000 DKK) Municipality dependency (%)
Poland 12,726 74
Bornholm 7,698 35
Stevns 0 0
Source: The Danish Fisheries Agency Vessel Register and Sales Notes Register 9th
August 2019.
Note: Poland is included to show that landings here are also important.
However, as mentioned previously especially the cod fishery can give rise to bycatches of various
other species. It is therefore also relevant to describe the municipality dependency on landings from
the Baltic Sea.
Table 13 therefore shows how much the vessels potentially affected by cod and herring quota
reductions in subdivisions 22-23 and 25-32 land to each municipality and compares this to the total
landings value in each municipality. Dependency levels are generally high, except for one
municipality Gribskov with the primary harbour Gilleleje. The relatively low dependency of 10%
may be surprising, and will therefore be explained further. In 2018, approximately 55 million DKK
of the landings value in Gribskov were from fishing in Kattegat (primarily Norway lobster 41 million
DKK and plaice/sole 6 million DKK), the remaining 6 million DKK were from fishing in the western
Baltic Sea (primarily herring 3 million DKK and cod 2 million DKK).
11
Table 13 Municipality dependency for the ten municipalities with highest landings
from vessels affected by quota reductions, 2018
Municipality
Total Danish landings value all
fishing areas to municipality
(1,000 DKK)
Total landings value from the
Baltic Sea
(1,000 DKK)
Municipality
dependency
(%)
Bornholm 22,018 21,966 100
Langeland 19,446 19,359 100
Vordingborg 13,511 13,511 100
Lolland 10,683 10,637 100
Stevns 7,358 7,312 99
Gribskov 61,617 6,421 10
Ærø 6,225 6,225 100
Kerteminde 6,751 5,211 77
Slagelse 4,649 4,625 99
Sønderborg 5,282 3,877 73
Source: The Danish Fisheries Agency Vessel Register and Sales Notes Register 9th
August 2019.
It is not possible from the available data to analyse the importance of these landings for specific
processing firms. For some of these firms, even small changes in landings might have significant
economic implications, if the firm’s economy is fragile.
2. Financial consequences for the fishermen
Assessing the financial consequences for the fishermen following the reductions in the cod and
herring quotas in the Baltic Sea will be done as a static-comparative analysis. The approach is that
the calculations answer the question, what could have happened in 2018, if the cod quota in
subdivisions 22-23 had been 1,337 tonnes, no targeted fishing allowed for cod in subdivision 24, a
zero cod quota in subdivisions 25-32 and a herring quota in subdivisions 22-24 of 372 tonnes. The
analysis will thus not consider long term effects on the profitability of the vessels/fleets following
any changes in fish stocks and fleet capacity.
The calculations are based on data from the Vessels Register and Sales Notes Register hosted by the
Danish Fisheries Agency and the Cost and Earnings Database hosted by Statistics Denmark. From
these registers, landings data from 2018 and estimated cost data for 2018 are derived.
The financial consequences will be addressed with two scenarios indicating the expected minimum
and maximum effects on the profitability of the vessels. In some situations, it might be possible for
the fishermen to change their behaviour, including fishing pattern, thus reducing some of the negative
effects. It is possible that some types of changed behaviour potentially can result in reduced fishing
options for other fishermen, who are not fishing in the Baltic Sea. However, because the majority of
the Danish fishing quotas are managed with individual transferable rights, this potential is considered
limited, see also Section 4.
12
In the minimum repercussion scenario, it is assumed that the reduced cod and herring quota in
subdivisions 22-24 and the zero cod quota in subdivisions 25-32 will only result in reduced or no
landings of cod and herring respectively, and not any reductions in the potential bycatch species.
Furthermore, it is assumed that cod cannot be fished in subdivision 24. However, it is assumed that
the cod and herring quotas are utilised 100% in 2018. For cod in subdivisions 22-24, the observed
quota utilisation was 100% in 2018, for herring it was 90%, cf. Table 14. For cod in subdivisions 25-
32 quota utilization was 35%, but given that the quota is set to zero, the assumption about 100% quota
utilisation does not have an effect on the landings.
In this minimum repercussion scenario, it is assumed that catches of cod can be avoided, which will
require a change in fishing patterns. There are some differences in fishing seasons for the various
species, with the season for cod peaking in winter and spring. However, even outside the cod season
by-catches of cod cannot be completely avoided. It is therefore assumed that part of the cod quota is
reserved for by-catches in other fisheries and seasons.
Table 14 Development in quota utilisation
Quota species Subdivisions 2016 2017 2018 2019* 2020**
Cod 22-24 81.2% 85.7% 100.9% 65.7% 100%
25-32 67.8% 73.0% 35.1% 18.5% 100%
Herring 22-24 92.4% 83.1% 73.6% 76.2% 100%
Source: The Danish Fisheries Agency.
Note: * by the 6th
September 2019, ** assumed quota utilisation.
In the maximum repercussions scenario, it is assumed that not only the landings of cod are reduced,
but also the landings of other consumption species are reduced as well and proportional to the reduced
activity in the main fishery, except species caught with no or little expected bycatch of cod, i.e.
herring, sprat, sand eel, salmon and eel. Thus, the applied reduction of bycatch species is calculated
as the proportion between the estimated cod landings following from the proposed quotas in 2020,
and the landings value of cod in 2018.
Comparing to the baseline, i.e. the registered landings value in 2018, Table 15 shows the expected
level of landings value in the minimum and maximum repercussions scenario. In the baseline, a total
landings value of 286 million DKK was observed for the included vessels in 2018, reducing to 241
million DKK with only reduced quotas, and to 228 million DKK with reduction of other relevant
species also.
13
Table 15 Total landings value (1,000 DKK)
Length Primary gear
Baseline
2018
Only lower landings of
reduced quotas
Lower landings of the
reduced quotas and
other species
Commercial
<12m Gillnet/hook 25,943 24,148 23,141
Dory/trap 3,691 3,543 2,991
Seine/gillnet/trawl 19,915 17,058 16,013
Trawl 6,456 5,420 5,080
Total 56,005 50,170 47,224
12-15m Seine/gillnet/trawl 8,363 8,279 7,962
Trawl 17,023 14,362 12,536
Total 25,386 22,641 20,498
15-18m Seine/gillnet/trawl 21,740 13,974 13,076
Trawl 98,583 78,985 74,238
Total 120,323 92,960 87,314
18-40m Trawl 69,379 62,406 60,933
Total 69,379 62,406 60,933
Total 271,092 228,176 215,969
Less
active-
commercial
<12m Gillnet/hook 8,445 7,291 6,173
Dory/trap 3,730 3,653 3,556
Seine/gillnet/trawl 2,577 2,100 1,906
Total 14,752 13,044 11,636
Total 14,752 13,044 11,636
Total 285,844 241,220 227,604
Source: Own calculations based on data from the Danish Fisheries Agency Vessel Register and Sales Notes
Register 9th
August 2019.
In order to calculate the financial repercussions for the vessels involved, this can only be done for the
commercial vessels for which Statistics Denmark collects account statistics for. The financial effect
for the less-active commercial vessels could in principle also be calculated, but due to their low
activity such calculations will have to be based on strong assumptions about their cost structure.
Therefore the financial analysis is limited to cover only the commercial vessels.
Description of the financial repercussions at the vessel level will be based on three indicators in form
of 1) landings value, 2) gross profit: earnings defined as landings value minus operating costs, and
thus portrays the surplus available for payment of crew and capital, and 3) net profit: defined as gross
profit minus crew payments, and thus portrays what is left to pay off the invested capital. The gross
profit is regarded the best indicator of the financial development of small vessels of less than 12
meters and some of the vessels 12-15 meters. This is because hired crew is small for these vessels,
and hence the proportion of crew payments can be overestimated.
Following the reduction in landings will entail a reduction in days at sea, as well as a reduction in
landings value and, consequently, have an impact on some of the operating costs undertaken, i.e.
14
lower activity gives rise to lower cost. These costs are fuel costs, provision and ice costs, sales costs
and crew payments, which is reduced with the same proportion as the landings value. The remaining
costs, i.e. insurance costs, maintenance costs, various other costs and capital costs are considered to
be fixed and therefore independent of the activity level.
Table 16 shows the effect on landings value per vessel, while Table 17 and Table 18 shows the gross
and net profit per vessel in the two scenarios. All indicators show that the financial performance for
the various fleet will deteriorate, even if only the minimum repercussion scenario is considered.
Looking first at the landings value in Table 16, it is observed that those fleets affected mostly in the
minimum repercussion scenario are those with a high dependency on cod and herring, for instance
trawl below 12 meters and trawl 18-40 meters. For fleets with a lower dependency on cod and herring,
these are mostly affected in the maximum repercussion scenario, for instance dory/trap below 12
meters and seine/gillnet/trawl 12-15 meters.
Table 16 Landings value per vessel (1,000 DKK)
Length Primary gear
Baseline
2018
Only lower landings of
reduced quotas
Lower landings of the
reduced quotas and
other species
<12m Gillnet/hook 811 755 723
Dory/trap 615 591 499
Seine/gillnet/trawl 830 711 667
Trawl 1,076 903 847
12-15m Seine/gillnet/trawl 1,195 1,183 1,137
Trawl 1,702 1,436 1,254
15-18m Seine/gillnet/trawl 3,106 1,996 1,868
Trawl 4,481 3,590 3,374
18-40m Trawl 6,938 6,241 6,093
Source: Own calculations based on data from the Danish Fisheries Agency Vessel Register and Sales Notes
Register 9th
August 2019.
The effect on the average gross profit is shown in Table 17. This indicator is preferred used for fleets
below 12 meters, because these fleets are primarily handled by one single fisherman. This has
implications on how Statistics Denmark calculates the crew payments, which generally implies that
the crew payments are overestimated compared to, what the fishermen obtain in reality. For the fleets
below 12 meters, the reductions are again related to the dependency on cod and herring. The dory/trap
fleet is primarily affected in the maximum repercussion scenario, while for instance the trawlers are
affected mostly in the minimum repercussion scenario.
15
Table 17 Gross profit per vessel (1,000 DKK)
Length Primary gear
Baseline
2018
Only lower landings of
reduced quotas
Lower landings of the
reduced quotas and
other species
<12m Gillnet/hook 385 341 316
Dory/trap 219 200 127
Seine/gillnet/trawl 299 214 183
Trawl 500 372 330
12-15m Seine/gillnet/trawl 415 406 374
Trawl 859 649 505
15-18m Seine/gillnet/trawl 1,582 734 635
Trawl 2,675 1,954 1,779
18-40m Trawl 3,693 3,157 3,048
Source: Own calculations based on data from the Danish Fisheries Agency Vessel Register and Sales Notes
Register 9th
August 2019 and cost information from Statistics Denmark.
Net profit shows what is left to pay off the invested capital, and for the fleets above 12 meters, large
reductions are observed. For trawlers 12-15 meters, the net profit is reduced to one-third in the
minimum repercussion scenario, and becomes negative in the maximum repercussion scenario. For
the seine/gillnet/trawl fleet 15-18 meters, net profit becomes negative already in the minimum
repercussion scenario, while it for the trawl fleet 15-18 meters are reduced to one-half from the
baseline level to the level in the maximum repercussion scenario.
Table 18 Net profit per vessel (1,000 DKK)
Length Primary gear
Baseline
2018
Only lower landings of
reduced quotas
Lower landings of the
reduced quotas and
relevant bycatch
species
<12m Gillnet/hook -71 -83 -90
Dory/trap -266 -266 -267
Seine/gillnet/trawl -47 -81 -94
Trawl 130 61 38
12-15m Seine/gillnet/trawl -69 -73 -87
Trawl 171 69 -2
15-18m Seine/gillnet/trawl 394 -47 -98
Trawl 1,012 621 526
18-40m Trawl 1,471 1,159 1,094
Source: Own calculations based on data from the Danish Fisheries Agency Vessel Register and Sales Notes
Register 9th
August 2019 and cost information from Statistics Denmark.
Based on the calculations above, it is likely that the quota reduction and limitations on access to
fishing grounds will result in a financial situation, which is not sustainable in the longer run for several
16
fleets. If the time perspective of a positive development in the stock abundance and quota levels are
years ahead, especially the fleets below 15 meters do not have the financial robustness to cope with
the rather substantial negative financial repercussions in the years until this happens. Thus they will
expectedly leave the fishery and sell their fishing rights to other vessels that are not necessarily located
in the same area, and which have a fishing pattern distributed on a more diverse range of fishing
grounds.
Furthermore, there are the 198 less active-commercial vessels, for which it is not possible to calculate
any financial performance indicators. As shown in Table 15, their total landings value will be reduced
from 15 million DKK to 12 million DKK in the maximum repercussion scenario. Despite that these
vessels does not fish for a commercial purpose, it is likely that such a reduction will make it so
unattractive to be a less active-commercial fisherman, and many of them will have to stop fishing.
2.1 Consequences of other cod quota levels in subdivision 25-32
The proposal for the fishing opportunities in 2020 by the EU Commission the European Commission
of cod in subdivisions 25-32 (eastern Baltic Sea) implied a TAC and thus a Danish quota of zero.
However, in order to illustrate the potential effects of having various quota levels, a sensitivity
analysis is undertaken, assuming a cod quota in subdivisions 25-32 of 500 tonnes, 1,000 tonnes, 1,500
tonnes and 2,000 tonnes respectively.
The financial consequences of the various cod quotas are shown in Table 19, Table 20, Table 21 and
Table 22 including the three economic indicators, i.e. average landings value per vessel, gross profit
per vessel and net profit per vessel for the baseline 2018 outcome, scenario 1 being the minimum
repercussion scenario and scenario 2 being the maximum repercussion scenario.
17
Table 19 Financial indicators with a cod quota of 500 tonnes in subdivisions 25-32
(1,000 DKK)
Landings value per
vessel Gross profit per vessel Net profit per vessel
Length Primary gear
Base-
line
2018
Scena-
rio 1
Scena-
rio 2
Base-
line
2018
Scena-
rio 1
Scena-
rio 2
Base-
line
2018
Scena-
rio 1
Scena-
rio 2
<12m Gillnet/hook 811 755 723 385 341 317 -71 -83 -90
Dory/trap 615 591 499 219 200 127 -266 -266 -267
Seine/gillnet/trawl 830 729 687 299 227 197 -47 -76 -89
Trawl 1,076 923 868 500 386 346 130 69 47
12-15m Seine/gillnet/trawl 1,195 1,183 1,137 415 406 374 -69 -73 -87
Trawl 1,702 1,458 1,277 859 666 524 171 77 7
15-18m Seine/gillnet/trawl 3,106 2,137 2,014 1,582 842 746 394 9 -41
Trawl 4,481 3,658 3,454 2,675 2,008 1,843 1,012 650 561
18-40m Trawl 6,938 6,304 6,181 3,693 3,204 3,113 1,471 1,186 1,132
Source: Own calculations based on data from the Danish Fisheries Agency Vessel Register and Sales Notes
Register 9th
August 2019 and cost information from Statistics Denmark.
Table 20 Financial indicators with a cod quota of 1,000 tonnes in subdivisions 25-32
(1,000 DKK)
Landings value per
vessel Gross profit per vessel Net profit per vessel
Length Primary gear
Base-
line
2018
Scena-
rio 1
Scena-
rio 2
Base-
line
2018
Scena-
rio 1
Scena-
rio 2
Base-
line
2018
Scena-
rio 1
Scena-
rio 2
<12m Gillnet/hook 811 755 724 385 341 317 -71 -83 -90
Dory/trap 615 591 499 219 200 127 -266 -266 -267
Seine/gillnet/trawl 830 748 707 299 240 211 -47 -71 -83
Trawl 1,076 942 890 500 401 362 130 76 56
12-15m Seine/gillnet/trawl 1,195 1,183 1,137 415 406 374 -69 -73 -87
Trawl 1,702 1,479 1,301 859 683 542 171 85 17
15-18m Seine/gillnet/trawl 3,106 2,278 2,159 1,582 949 857 394 65 17
Trawl 4,481 3,725 3,533 2,675 2,063 1,907 1,012 680 596
18-40m Trawl 6,938 6,366 6,269 3,693 3,251 3,178 1,471 1,214 1,171
Source: Own calculations based on data from the Danish Fisheries Agency Vessel Register and Sales Notes
Register 9th
August 2019 and cost information from Statistics Denmark.
18
Table 21 Financial indicators with a cod quota of 1,500 tonnes in subdivisions 25-32
(1,000 DKK)
Landings value per
vessel Gross profit per vessel Net profit per vessel
Length Primary gear
Base-
line
2018
Scena-
rio 1
Scena-
rio 2
Base-
line
2018
Scena-
rio 1
Scena-
rio 2
Base-
line
2018
Scena-
rio 1
Scena-
rio 2
<12m Gillnet/hook 811 755 724 385 342 317 -71 -83 -90
Dory/trap 615 591 499 219 200 127 -266 -266 -267
Seine/gillnet/trawl 830 766 727 299 253 225 -47 -65 -77
Trawl 1,076 961 911 500 415 378 130 84 64
12-15m Seine/gillnet/trawl 1,195 1,183 1,137 415 406 374 -69 -73 -87
Trawl 1,702 1,500 1,324 859 700 561 171 93 26
15-18m Seine/gillnet/trawl 3,106 2,419 2,305 1,582 1,056 968 394 121 75
Trawl 4,481 3,793 3,613 2,675 2,118 1,972 1,012 709 630
18-40m Trawl 6,938 6,429 6,357 3,693 3,297 3,243 1,471 1,242 1,210
Source: Own calculations based on data from the Danish Fisheries Agency Vessel Register and Sales Notes
Register 9th
August 2019 and cost information from Statistics Denmark.
Table 22 Financial indicators with a cod quota of 2,000 tonnes in subdivisions 25-32
(1,000 DKK)
Landings value per
vessel Gross profit per vessel Net profit per vessel
Length Primary gear
Base-
line
2018
Scena-
rio 1
Scena-
rio 2
Base-
line
2018
Scena-
rio 1
Scena-
rio 2
Base-
line
2018
Scena-
rio 1
Scena-
rio 2
<12m Gillnet/hook 811 755 724 385 342 317 -71 -83 -90
Dory/trap 615 591 499 219 200 127 -266 -266 -267
Seine/gillnet/trawl 830 784 747 299 266 240 -47 -60 -72
Trawl 1,076 980 933 500 429 394 130 92 73
12-15m Seine/gillnet/trawl 1,195 1,183 1,137 415 406 374 -69 -73 -87
Trawl 1,702 1,522 1,348 859 717 579 171 102 35
15-18m Seine/gillnet/trawl 3,106 2,559 2,450 1,582 1,164 1,079 394 177 133
Trawl 4,481 3,860 3,692 2,675 2,172 2,036 1,012 739 665
18-40m Trawl 6,938 6,492 6,445 3,693 3,344 3,308 1,471 1,269 1,248
Source: Own calculations based on data from the Danish Fisheries Agency Vessel Register and Sales Notes
Register 9th
August 2019 and cost information from Statistics Denmark.
If the cod quota in subdivisions 25-32 is not reduced to zero, but to other levels, this will consequently
reduce the negative financial consequences for fleets fishing on this quota. Logically, the more quota
that becomes available, the negative financial consequences will be reduced. The tables only reflects
19
the implications for an average vessel in a specific fleet, but for the individual vessel, even a small
quota of cod could make an important difference depending on the ability to change their fishing
behaviour, cf. section 4.
3. Consequences for the onshore services and processing industry
The consequences outlined above in the minimum and maximum repercussion scenarios are expected
also to have consequences for the onshore services (upstream services) and processing industry
(downstream services). From the available data and modelling tools it is, however, too uncertain to
calculate the impact on employment and profit for the processing industry and fishery related service
industry.
In relation to the processing industry, it is complicated to analyse the effect for a specific municipality.
Landings of fish to a specific harbour does not necessarily imply that it is also processed there. In the
small harbours around the Baltic Sea, there is only minor processing taking place. Some of the landed
fish might be sold to local fish mongers and small processing firms, but most of it is sold to larger
processing firms located in other areas of Denmark or abroad. These trade-flows are impossible to
describe with the current data available, and this will furthermore demand a detailed geographical
economic model to capture the derived effects in relation to local, regional and national effects. Thus,
the description of the potential consequences for the municipalities will therefore have to be based on
the changes in landings value with the above warning in mind. Therefore, it is assumed that each
vessel continues to have the same distribution of its landings to the various municipalities, and as a
consequence the landings to each municipality is reduced proportional with the reduction in landings
for each vessel.
Table 23 shows, which municipalities will be most influenced in the two scenarios. Especially,
Bornholm, Vordingborg and Stevns will be highly impacted. These municipalities are highly
dependent on landings from subdivision 24 and subdivisions 25-32. Thus, reduced fishing
opportunities in these fishing areas will impact these municipalities directly. The other municipalities
obtains most of their landing from subdivisions 22-23, and despite a reduction in the cod quota in
these subdivisions, this will only have a limited effects on the landings value.
20
Table 23 Change in landings value at the municipality level (1,000 DKK)
Municipality
Total Danish
landings value
all fishing areas
to municipality
(1,000 DKK)
Total landings
value with
reduction only
in quotas
(1,000 DKK)
Change
compared to
baseline 2018
Total landings
value with
reduction in
quotas and
other species
Change
compared to
baseline 2018
Bornholm 22,018 10,625 -52% 6,555 -70%
Langeland 19,446 19,032 -2% 18,294 -6%
Vordingborg 13,511 5,593 -59% 2,577 -81%
Lolland 10,683 10,428 -2% 10,082 -6%
Stevns 7,358 3,668 -50% 2,480 -66%
Gribskov 61,617 58,521 -5% 58,454 -5%
Ærø 6,225 6,090 -2% 5,868 -6%
Kerteminde 6,751 6,694 -1% 6,464 -4%
Slagelse 4,649 4,589 -1% 4,396 -5%
Sønderborg 5,282 5,239 -1% 5,096 -4%
Source: Own calculations based on data from the Danish Fisheries Agency Vessel Register and Sales Notes
Register 9th
August 2019.
The onshore service industry in form of ship yards, fuel and ice suppliers etc. will likely also be
affected by the lower fishing activity. Lower activity gives rise to less use of these services for
maintenance and repair. The data availability for analysing these questions is almost non-existent and
furthermore in the small harbours these industries is not solely dependent on the activity within the
fishery, but also services provided to other types of vessels, such as leisure boats, harbour service
boats, ship building etc. These other types of activities also generates an income to the harbours and
to the onshore service industries.
Furthermore, some harbours may be attractive to visit for tourists, because there are activity around
it, also including activity from the fishery. Reduced fishing activity and potentially fewer vessels
might imply that the harbours are not so interesting to visit. This will the lead to less hotel stays, fewer
meals served, less shopping etc., thus giving to even lower activity in the harbour and the town around
it.
4. Possibilities for adapting the fishery
Quota reductions are made in order to recover fish stocks over time, and thus increase quotas in the
future. In the long run, fleet adjustments can take place gradually in order to be at a capacity level
matching the available fishing opportunities. However, in the short run, reductions in quotas will in
most situations have a negative economic effect on the financial performance of the fishing vessels
concerned. In order to reduce such financial effects, fishermen will try to adapt fishery and activity
level in order to generate income in another way or reduce costs, i.e. they will change their behaviour
if possible, given the various restrictions they are subject to.
21
For some of the larger vessels, an option could be to start fishing in other areas and thus other quotas,
but this is not considered to be possible for smaller vessels located in the harbours around the Baltic
Sea. Given the Danish management system based on individual fishing rights, such changes are only
an option if these vessels buy quota from the vessels that are currently fishing in the area they would
like to switch to. Changing fishing activity towards quotas not currently owned by these vessels, will
imply that there is a supply at reasonable prices, which is not considered to be the case.
Cod is as mentioned often caught in the fishery conducted in the Baltic Sea and it is almost
unavoidable to catch cod. Cod will thus often be a choke species that restricts the utilisation of the
other quotas in the Baltic Sea. Fishermen will most likely try to adapt their behaviour to reduce the
catch of cod. If this is possible the situation will be close to the minimum repercussion scenario and
not the maximum repercussion scenario. Such behavioural changes might imply using other gears,
fishing in other seasons, fishing in other areas of the Baltic Sea. Depending on the fisherman and the
characteristics of the vessels such changes will incur a cost , else it would probably have been done
already. This means that is not likely that such a change in fishing behaviour will take place. However,
it is not possible based on current information to estimate the costs and gains by such a change.
Based on the above, it must be concluded that it will be difficult for these vessels to change their
behaviour in a way which can counteract the negative financial repercussions of the reduced cod
quota. For some, there might few possibilities, but a reduction in the number of fishing vessels must
be expected quite rapidly during the coming years, if the proposed quotas for 2020 are kept at this
level for several years.
Conclusion
Reducing the possibilities in the Baltic Sea for fishing cod and herring in subdivisions 22-24 and
setting a zero quota for cod in subdivisions 25-32 will have financial consequences for the vessels
involved in these fisheries. In 2018, the total landings value for the vessels fishing cod and herring in
subdivisions 22-24 and cod in subdivisions 25-32 was 286 million DKK. If only the landings of cod
and herring are reduced to the new quota levels, this will imply that the total landings value is reduced
to 241 million DKK. This will then be reduced further to 227 million DKK, if landings of relevant
bycatch species are also reduced together with the cod landings. The estimates show that the reduction
in landings value will be between 45 and 59 million DKK, i.e. -16% and -21% respectively.
These reductions in landings value will also imply reductions in variable costs, however these will
not be proportional to the reduction in landings value. Therefore, net profit will be reduced especially
the smaller vessels below 15 meters, making up the majority of vessels fishing in the Baltic Sea. The
repercussions will be larger, if it is not only the cod and herring landings that are affected, but also
relevant bycatch species.
Maybe the consequences can to some extend be counteracted by changed behaviour, but for especially
the smaller vessels it can be problematic to shift to other fishing areas or start going further to sea, if
it becomes possible for them to purchase quotas in other areas. Also such behavioural changes can be
costly to undertake, i.e. buying other gears, fishing on other grounds further away etc.
22
For onshore services and processing industry there will also be a negative effect following the quota
reductions. However, it is only to a limited extend possible to analyse these effects. The amount of
data and information about trade flows, processing structure, generation of work in the onshore
service industry, derived effects on tourism etc. are relevant to consider, but the possibilities are
currently limited to address.
For the fishing fleets, the onshore service and the processing industry, the short and long run
consequences are dependent on how fast the stock situation improves. If it does not improve fast, a
large number of vessels, primarily small vessels below 15 meters, are expected to leave the fishery
fast, thus also having a derived effect on the onshore services and processing industry. A vessel
leaving the fishery will imply a significant capital loss, because these vessels still carry a substantial
amount of fixed costs.
23
Annex 1 Map of the Baltic Sea with subdivisions
24
Annex 2 Danish quota exchanges
Quota Species Subdivisions Exchange type 2016 2017 2018 2019*
Cod 22-24 Quantity Received 756 92 150 108
Quantity Given 0 0 0 -3
25-32 Quantity Received 0 0 30 50
Quantity Given -786 -2 -11 -24
Herring 22-24 Quantity Received 2,151 2,588 1,970 581
Quantity Given 0 0 -550 -24
Source: The Danish Fisheries Agency.
Note: * includes exchanges until August 2019.