Rapporter og resolutioner fra Den Årlige Session i Halifax 2019

Tilhører sager:

Aktører:


    Rapporter og resolutioner fra Den Årlige Session i Halifax 2019

    https://www.ft.dk/samling/20181/almdel/NPA/bilag/3/2015832.pdf

    162 SESA 18 B
    ANNUAL SESSION
    HALIFAX (CANADA)
    SESSION ANNUELLE
    November 2018 / novembre 2018
    COMMITTEE AND SUB-COMMITTEE
    DRAFT REPORTS AND RESOLUTIONS
    PROJETS DE RAPPORTS ET DE RÉSOLUTIONS
    DES COMMISSIONS ET SOUS-COMMISSIONS
    List / Liste
    as of 22 October 2018
    Dernière mise à jour : 22 octobre 2018
    www.nato-pa.int
    NATO''s Parlamentariske Forsamling 2018-19
    NPA Alm.del - Bilag 3
    Offentligt
    162 SESA 18 B
    2
    COMMITTEE ON THE CIVIL DIMENSION OF SECURITY (CDS)
    COMMISSION SUR LA DIMENSION CIVILE DE LA SÉCURITÉ (CDS)
    164 CDS 18 E Draft General Report
    Fostering Democracy and Human Rights in the Black Sea Region
    164 CDS 18 F Projet de rapport général
    Encourager la démocratie et les droits humains dans la région de la mer Noire
    General Rapporteur - Rapporteure générale
    Ulla SCHMIDT (Germany/Allemagne)
    165 CDSDG 18 E Draft Report of the Sub-Committee on Democratic Governance
    Civil Protection in the High North and the Mediterranean
    165 CDSDG 18 F Projet de rapport de la sous-commission sur la gouvernance démocratique
    La protection civile dans le Grand Nord et la région méditerranéenne
    Rapporteur – Rapporteure
    Jane CORDY (Canada)
    166 CDS 18 E Draft Special Report
    Countering Russia’s Hybrid Threats: an Update
    166 CDS 18 F Projet de rapport spécial
    Parades aux menaces hybrides émanant de la Russie : une mise à jour
    Special Rapporteur - Rapporteur spécial
    Lord JOPLING (United Kingdom/Royaume-Uni)
    DRAFT RESOLUTIONS / PROJETS DE RÉSOLUTIONS
    215 CDS 18 E Draft resolution on Updating the Responses To Russia’s Hybrid Tactics
    215 CDS 18 F Projet de résolution sur Parades aux tactiques hybrides de la Russie : Une
    mise à jour
    216 CDS 18 E Draft resolution on Security and Cooperation in the High North
    216 CDS 18 F Projet de résolution sur La sécurité et la coopération dans le Grand Nord
    162 SESA 18 B
    3
    DEFENCE AND SECURITY COMMITTEE (DSC)
    COMMISSION DE LA DÉFENSE ET DE LA SÉCURITÉ (DSC)
    168 DSC 18 E Draft General Report
    Reinforcing NATO’s Deterrence in the East
    168 DSC 18 F Projet de rapport général
    Renforcer la dissuasion de l’OTAN à l’est
    General Rapporteur - Rapporteur général
    Joseph A. DAY (Canada)
    169 DSCFC 18 E Draft Report of the Sub-Committee on Future Security and Defence Capabilities
    NATO Special Operations Forces in the Modern Security Environment
    169 DSCFC 18 F Projet de rapport de la sous-commission sur l’avenir de la sécurité et des
    capacités de défense
    Les forces d’opérations spéciales de l’OTAN dans l’environnement de sécurité
    contemporain
    Rapporteur - Rapporteure
    Madeleine MOON (United Kingdom/Royaume-Uni)
    170 DSCTC 18 E Draft Report of the Sub-Committee on Transatlantic Defence and Security
    Cooperation
    Burden Sharing: New Commitments in a New Era
    170 DSCTC 18 F Projet de rapport de la sous-commission sur la coopération transatlantique en
    matière de défense et de sécurité
    Partage des charges : de nouveaux engagements pour une ère nouvelle
    Rapporteur
    Attila MESTERHAZY (Hungary/Hongrie)
    171 DSC 18 E Draft Special Report
    Afghanistan: The Nexus of Local and Regional Security
    171 DSC 18 F Projet de rapport spécial
    Afghanistan : clé de voûte de la sécurité locale et régionale
    Special Rapporteur - Rapporteur spécial
    Wolfgang HELLMICH (Germany/Allemagne)
    DRAFT RESOLUTIONS / PROJETS DE RÉSOLUTIONS
    217 DSC 18 E Draft resolution on Burden Sharing: New Commitments In A New Era
    217 DSC 18 F Projet de résolution sur Partage des charges: de nouveaux engagements pour
    une ère nouvelle
    218 DSC 18 E Draft resolution on Reinforcing NATO’s Deterrence in the East
    218 DSC 18 F Projet de résolution sur Renforcer la dissuasion de l’OTAN à l’Est
    162 SESA 18 B
    4
    ECONOMICS AND SECURITY COMMITTEE (ESC)
    COMMISSION DE L'ÉCONOMIE ET DE LA SÉCURITÉ (ESC)
    173 ESC 18 E Draft General Report
    The Future of the Space Industry
    173 ESC 18 F Projet de rapport général
    L’avenir de l’industrie spatiale
    General Rapporteur - Rapporteur général
    Jean-Marie BOCKEL (France)
    174 ESCTER 18 E Draft Report of the Sub-Committee on Transatlantic Economic Relations
    The International Trading System at Risk and the Need to Return to First
    Principles
    174 ESCTER 18 F Projet de rapport de la sous-commission sur les relations économiques
    transatlantiques
    Le système commercial international en péril : de la nécessité d’un retour aux
    principes fondamentaux
    Acting Rapporteur - Rapporteur f.f.
    Faik OZTRAK (Turkey / Turquie)
    175 ESCTD 18 E Draft Report of the Sub-Committee on Transition and Development
    The Energy Security Challenge in Central and Eastern Europe
    175 ESCTD 18 F Projet de rapport de la sous-commission sur la transition et le développement
    Le défi de la sécurité énergétique en Europe centrale et orientale
    Rapporteur - Rapporteure
    Ausrine ARMONAITE (Lithuania/Lituanie)
    DRAFT RESOLUTIONS / PROJETS DE RÉSOLUTION
    219 ESC 18 E Draft résolution on Opportunities and Challenges in a Changing Space Arena
    219 ESC 18 F Projet de résolution sur Potentialités et défis dans un domaine spatial en
    mutation
    220 ESC 18 E Draft Resolution on Energy Security: A Strategic Challenge For The Alliance
    220 ESC 18 F Projet de résolution sur La sécurité énergétique, un défi stratégique pour
    l'Alliance
    162 SESA 18 B
    5
    POLITICAL COMMITTEE (PC)
    COMMISSION POLITIQUE (PC)
    177 PC 18 E Draft General Report
    Instability in the South
    177 PC 18 F Projet de rapport général
    L’instabilité sur le flanc sud
    General Rapporteur - Rapporteur général
    Julio MIRANDA CALHA (Portugal)
    178 PCNP 18 E Draft Report of the Sub-Committee on NATO Partnerships
    Security in the Western Balkans
    178 PCNP 18 F Projet de rapport de la sous-commission sur les partenariats de l’OTAN
    La sécurité dans les Balkans occidentaux
    Rapporteur - Rapporteure
    Hon. Raynell ANDREYCHUK (Canada)
    179 PCTR 18 E Draft Report of the Sub-Committee on Transatlantic Relations
    North Korea’s Challenge to International Security: Implications for NATO
    179 PCTR 18 F Projet de rapport de la sous-commission sur les relations transatlantiques
    Le défi nord-coréen à la sécurité internationale : implications pour l’OTAN
    Rapporteur
    Gerald E. CONNOLLY (United States/États-Unis)
    DRAFT RESOLUTION / PROJET DE RÉSOLUTION
    221 PC 18 E Draft Resolution on Reinforcing NATO’s Contribution to Tackling the
    Challenges from the South
    221 PC 18 F Projet de résolution sur Renforcer la contribution de l'OTAN pour faire face
    aux défis émanant du Sud
    162 SESA 18 B
    6
    SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COMMITTEE (STC)
    COMMISSION DES SCIENCES ET DES TECHNOLOGIES (STC)
    181 STC 18 E Draft General Report
    Russian Meddling in Elections and Referenda in the Alliance
    181 STC 18 F Projet de rapport général
    L’ingérence de la Russie dans les élections et les référendums des pays de
    l’Alliance
    General Rapporteur - Rapporteure générale
    Hon. Susan DAVIS (United States/États-Unis)
    182 STCTTS 18 E Draft Report of the Sub-Committee on Technology Trends and Security
    Dark Dealings: How Terrorists Use Encrypted Messaging, the Dark Web and
    Cryptocurrencies
    182 STCTTS 18 F Projet de rapport de la sous-commission sur les tendances technologiques
    et la sécurité
    Transactions secrètes : l’usage des messageries cryptées, du Dark Web et des
    cryptomonnaies par les terroristes
    Rapporteur
    Matej TONIN (Slovenia/Slovénie)
    183 STC 18 E Draft Special Report
    NATO Science and Technology: Maintaining the Edge and Enhancing Alliance
    Agility
    183 STC 18 F Projet de rapport spécial
    Sciences et technologies de l’OTAN : conserver l’avance technologique et
    améliorer la souplesse de l’Alliance
    Special Rapporteur - Rapporteure spéciale
    Leona ALLESLEV (Canada)
    DRAFT RESOLUTIONS / PROJETS DE RÉSOLUTION
    222 STC18 E Safeguarding Elections in the Alliance
    222 STC 18 F Protéger les élections dans les pays de l’Alliance
    223 STC 18 E Draft resolution on Maintaining the Science & Technology Edge and Enhancing
    Alliance Agility
    223 STC 18 F Projet de résolution sur Conserver l'avantage scientifique et technologique de
    l'OTAN et améliorer la souplesse de l'Alliance
    ________________
    COMMITTEE
    ON THE CIVIL DIMENSION OF
    SECURITY (CDS)
    FOSTERING DEMOCRACY
    AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE
    BLACK SEA REGION
    General Report
    by Ulla SCHMIDT (Germany)
    General Rapporteur
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin | Original: English | 24 September 2018
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    I. INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................................1
    II. UKRAINE...........................................................................................................................1
    A. SITUATION IN EASTERN UKRAINE........................................................................3
    B. SITUATION IN CRIMEA ...........................................................................................4
    III. GEORGIA..........................................................................................................................5
    IV. THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA ........................................................................................8
    TRANSNISTRIA ..............................................................................................................10
    V. RUSSIA ...........................................................................................................................10
    VI. NATO ALLIES..................................................................................................................13
    VII. CONCLUSIONS: ENHANCING THE EURO-ATLANTIC COMMUNITY’S
    APPROACH TO THE BLACK SEA REGION ...................................................................17
    SELECT BIBLIOGRAPHY ...............................................................................................19
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    1
    I. INTRODUCTION
    1. In its most recent annual report, Freedom House provided worrying figures that show
    democracy is in crisis globally. The watchdog claims that democracy around the world has
    deteriorated to the lowest point in more than a decade. Democratic values, such as the right to
    choose leaders in free and fair elections, freedom of the press and the rule of law, are under assault
    and in retreat. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index, less than 5% of the
    world’s population currently lives in a “full democracy”, and 89 of the 167 countries assessed in 2017
    received lower scores than they had the year before. Even among some members of the
    Euro-Atlantic community, which has been traditionally seen as the champion of the global liberal
    democratic order, officials see these disquieting trends. Anti-establishment sentiment, political
    polarisation and disenchantment with mainstream political parties and media are growing.
    2. The global order that seemingly triumphed with the end of the Cold War, prompting some to
    announce the “end of history”, is eroding. For the Alliance, an organisation underpinned by liberal
    democratic values, this erosion has severe consequences. The General Rapporteur is convinced
    there is a need for a genuine discussion among the Allies on ways to strengthen democratic values
    and further believes that the NATO Parliamentary Assembly (NATO PA) provides an appropriate
    forum for such discussion.
    3. As the issue of democratic values is too broad to be covered in one report, the
    General Rapporteur chose to focus on the Black Sea area due to the following reasons. First, the
    region’s strategic importance for NATO and global security in general has grown considerably.
    Russia’s revisionist behaviour, including its violation of Ukraine and Georgia’s territorial integrity, and
    the region’s proximity to the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have prompted NATO to reinvest in
    the Black Sea region. Second, the area represents a diverse microcosm of actors important to NATO.
    These actors include three NATO Allies, Turkey, Bulgaria, and Romania; two NATO aspirants,
    Ukraine and Georgia; one NATO partner, the Republic of Moldova1
    ; and one country that considers
    NATO its adversary, Russia. Adherence to democratic values and the rule of law varies greatly
    across these states. Even leading democracies—Romania and Bulgaria—stand out in the
    European Union’s context as the only member states subjected to the Cooperation and Verification
    Mechanism, an agreement designed to assist the two countries in the fields of judicial reform and
    fighting corruption.
    4. This general report will provide an overview of political developments in the Black Sea states,
    including the efforts (where appropriate) to consolidate democratic institutions, challenges in
    protecting human rights and civil liberties and the fight against corruption as well as the
    implementation of reform agendas. The General Rapporteur will argue that the Euro-Atlantic
    community needs to strengthen its focus on democracy, the rule of law and human rights indicators
    in its approaches to the Black Sea region. These improvements are vital for the cohesion of the
    Alliance; the Euro-Atlantic prospects of Georgia, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine; the
    normalisation of relations with Russia; and, more generally, the de-escalation of tensions and the
    prevention of conflicts in the Black Sea area.
    II. UKRAINE
    5. More than four years after the Revolution of Dignity, a return to autocracy and censorship in
    Ukraine seems implausible. Ukraine’s record of holding free and fair elections is solid, its media
    environment is diverse and its civil society scene independent and vibrant.
    1 The General Rapporteur chose to include a chapter on the Republic of Moldova because of its
    immediate proximity to the Black Sea. The Republic of Moldova’s port of Giurgiulești on the Danube
    River de facto makes it a Black Sea littoral state.
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    2
    6. While Ukraine has adopted more reform initiatives in the last four years than in the 23 years
    preceding the second Maidan revolution, it is now struggling to maintain its reform agenda. The
    Ukrainian President, Petro Poroshenko, faces increasing criticism. Reforms have slowed down and
    the actual implementation of the adopted reform bills is unsatisfactory. Public administration remains
    largely inefficient and lacks the proper administrative culture. The level of trust in the political system
    is alarmingly low—support for political leaders or parties rarely exceeds single digits. Most
    disconcerting is the apathy among the youth. According to one poll, about two-thirds of young people
    are disinterested in politics and only a third of the respondents say that accepting or giving a bribe
    is never justifiable (Sasse, 2018).
    7. Economically, Ukraine’s situation is slowly improving. Through a mix of spending cuts, tax code
    simplifications and reforms to boost economic transparency, the country’s GDP grew over 2% in
    2016 and 2017. In the World Bank’s annual Doing Business Survey, Ukraine greatly improved its
    business environment, jumping from 142nd
    out of 183 countries in 2010 to 76th
    in 2018. Following
    major restructuring, Ukraine substantially reduced its dependence on Russian energy imports. In
    April 2018, the EU announced a new assistance package of EUR 1 billion, conditioned on Ukraine’s
    ability to conduct deep structural reforms. In the framework of the Deep and Comprehensive Trade
    Agreement with the EU, Ukraine-EU bilateral trade grew rapidly between 2016-2018 (with a
    27% increase in the first quarter of 2018 alone). The EU has replaced Russia as Ukraine’s main
    trading partner (European Parliament, June 2018). Ukraine’s economic transformation is supported
    by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) (with USD 17.5 billion in 2015-2019), the EU (a new
    assistance package of EUR 1 billion in loans was adopted in May 2018 for a period of 2.5 years),
    the World Bank (through an IBRD guarantee expected to help Ukraine raise about USD 800 million
    in the lending market) as well as bilateral assistance.
    8. Despite entrenched obstacles, Ukraine has taken some steps to address corruption. The
    National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) has spearheaded the fight against high-level
    corruption. NABU is aided by a new law requiring public officials to electronically declare their income
    and assets as well as those in the name of their family members. After long hesitations and much
    political resistance, the law establishing the High Anti-Corruption Court was adopted in June 2018.
    The Court will tackle the cases of top-level corruption. The implementation and widespread adoption
    of an e-procurement system, ProZorro, is further credited with reducing political favouritism in public
    procurement, tripling the number of bidders and suppliers and substantially reducing government
    expenses. In April 2018, an electronic healthcare system, eHealth, was launched, sparking hopes
    that this might lead to a reduction of corruption in Ukraine’s healthcare sector. The Parliament
    recently approved key constitutional and political reforms to curb political influence within the court
    system and boost professionalism among judicial appointees. Parliamentarians also approved
    several decentralising measures, empowering citizens and activists to take ownership of issues that
    affect their communities.
    9. However, additional steps must be taken to deepen anticorruption efforts and prevent
    democratic backsliding. In 2016, the head of NABU resigned after accusing high-ranking officials of
    obstructing the agency’s work. In May 2017, the governor of Ukraine’s central bank quit after
    “three years of sustained harassment” for her efforts to regulate the country’s private banks
    (Mufson, 2017). By early 2018, out of the 107 cases brought by NABU to the court, only
    19 convictions were issued (European Parliament, June 2018). Moreover, cases against powerful
    figures remain rare and activists can face retribution for investigating corruption. Members of the
    judiciary still lack significant independence. Over half of the 113 recent Supreme Court appointees
    have had their professional records questioned by a public watchdog group (UCMC, 2017). Further,
    observers have expressed concern over new laws on NGOs that require them and their employees
    to publicly declare their assets like public officials (Freedom House, 2018).
    10. Security sector reform remains slow. Observers consider the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU)
    to be too powerful and unaccountable (European Parliament, DG for External Policies, 2018). NATO
    is reportedly dissatisfied – and has been for several years now – with the way Kyiv is fulfilling its
    obligations under the Annual National Programme (ANP), a document that defines the range and
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    3
    pace of reform for Ukraine’s further rapprochement with NATO. Experts note that as spending in the
    defence sector has increased, so have avenues for corruption (Higgins, 2018). For instance, the
    ambitious project to build a defensive line along the border with Russia has been marred by an
    embezzlement scandal.
    11. A recent education law, mandating that Ukrainian be used as the primary language of
    instruction in secondary schools by 2020, has earned significant criticism both domestically and
    internationally, particularly from Hungary, Romania, Poland and Russia, for its potential to undermine
    minority rights and freedoms. Budapest insists that progress on Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration
    will not be possible until Kyiv changes the law and that no meetings of the NATO-Ukraine
    Commission will be scheduled in the meantime. Ukrainian officials argue that children need to
    understand the state’s majority language to fully participate in society and point out that the law does
    not prohibit education in minority languages as separate classes.
    12. According to official sources, in 2016–2017, there were 581 schools with Russian as the
    language of instruction, 78 schools with Romanian, 71 schools with Hungarian and 5 schools with
    Polish. The Venice Commission has presented its opinion, in which it stressed that “it is a legitimate
    and commendable aim for states to promote the strengthening of the state language.” However, the
    Venice Commission expressed concern about the scope and pace of the reform, which could
    “amount to a disproportionate interference with the existing rights of persons belonging to national
    minorities.” The Commission recommended Ukraine make amendments to the law to guarantee a
    sufficient proportion of education in minority languages at the primary and secondary levels as well
    as to provide more time for a gradual reform. The General Rapporteur urges the Ukrainian authorities
    to take due account of the Venice Commission’s recommendations.
    13. Observers continue to fear that Ukrainian authorities are not engaging sufficiently in the
    prevention of hate crimes (Sturrock and Summers, 2018). Since the beginning of the year there have
    been at least two dozen attacks on the Roma and LGBT+ (Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual,
    Transgender/Transsexual and related) communities as well as on civil rights activists by
    ultranationalist groups such as C14 (HRW, 2018; Millier, 2018).
    14. Overall, the Rapporteur shares the conclusion of a study commissioned by the European
    Parliament, that “the real Ukrainian ‘reform saga’ revolves around 4D’s: decentralization,
    debureaucratization, deregulation and ‘de-oligarchization’. Whereas in the realm of reregulation an
    unequivocally significant progress is recorded, decentralization showcases significant but not
    politically uncontroversial progress, with de-bureaucratization proceeding at a slower pace.
    ‘Deoligarchization’ manifests cosmetic and legislative changes, with limited implementation of the
    much-needed reform.” Ukraine’s leaders have a choice: their legacy can either be to take Ukraine
    down their chosen European path or to take the path of their predecessors. Having come so far and
    achieved so much, it would be deeply disappointing if Ukraine were to revert to past mistakes.
    A. SITUATION IN EASTERN UKRAINE
    15. On-going high levels of casualties in eastern Ukraine continue to cause concern. Since the
    outbreak of the conflict, over 10,300 people were killed and almost 25,000 injured while about
    1 million internally displaced people are residing in the government-controlled areas of Ukraine. In
    January 2018, the Ukrainian Parliament passed a bill that redefined Ukraine’s actions in the Donetsk
    and Luhansk oblasts from anti-terrorist operations to “measures to ensure national security and
    defence, [and the] deterrence and repression of Russian armed aggression.” The bill gives Ukraine’s
    armed forces a legal basis to be in the region and shifts the responsibility of the conflict from the
    SBU to all troops and law enforcement groups in the region.
    16. Meanwhile, the Russia-backed governance in the temporarily occupied areas of the Donetsk
    and Luhansk regions continues to disregard human rights and liberties. The Office of the United
    Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights notes “cases of summary executions, enforced
    disappearances, arbitrary detention, torture and ill-treatment, and conflict-related sexual violence”.
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    4
    Individuals suspected of pro-Ukrainian sympathies, which includes people belonging to the Ukrainian
    Orthodox Church - Kiev Patriarchate or with a history of government work, suffer detention or other
    forms of oppression. Amnesty International reports show trials are being held against individuals
    suspected of opposing Russia-backed illegal armed groups. Most recently, there have been reports
    of minors being arrested and detained illegally in Makiyvika, a town in one of the
    non-government-controlled areas of the Donetsk Region, on the account of “working for Ukraine’s
    intelligence” (Kyiv Post, 2018). While these and other abuses appear rife, international observers
    and humanitarian organisations are often unable to secure access to prisoners detained by
    Russia-backed illegal armed groups. Ukraine and rebel leaders carried out their largest prisoner
    exchange in December 2017, with Ukraine handing over 246 prisoners for 74 prisoners held by
    Russia. However, over 60 Ukrainian citizens, considered by Kyiv as political prisoners, continue to
    be kept in Russian jails. The most prominent case is that of Ukrainian film director Oleg Sentsov
    who, at the time of writing, was on hunger strike in a prison in the far north of Russia.
    17. Politically, Russia continues to strengthen its control of the territories by gradually replacing
    the leadership of the Russia-backed illegal armed groups. In a notable case, Russian occupation
    forces and illegal armed groups belonging to the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic interfered in
    power struggles within the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic, facilitating the removal of the
    leader of the “republic”, Igor Plotnitsky. More recently, the leader of the so-called Donetsk People’s
    Republic, Alexander Zakharchenko, was murdered. Both the Ukrainian and the Russian government
    issued statements accusing the other of the assassination.
    18. In addition to the ongoing hostilities in Ukraine’s east, a number of recent developments,
    including the assassination of Mr Zakharchenko, Moscow’s refusal to accept its responsibility for the
    downing of MH17 airliner – despite the findings of the Dutch investigation – and plans to hold
    so-called “elections” on 11 November in the non-government-controlled areas of the Donetsk and
    Luhansk regions make the prospect of further negotiations under the Minsk II format increasingly
    difficult. Nevertheless, the Rapporteur continues to call on all stakeholders – and particularly Russia,
    which has created the conflict – to remain committed to Minsk II as the most viable avenue to de-
    escalate the conflict and to seek a political resolution.
    B. SITUATION IN CRIMEA
    19. Following the invasion and illegal occupation of Crimea by Russian forces in 2014, dissent has
    been ruthlessly suppressed. Throughout the occupied territory, authorities have prosecuted public
    criticism of Russian policies (HRW, 2018). The right to public assembly has diminished and protests
    against the occupation have been outlawed. Ukrainian television stations and newspapers,
    meanwhile, have closed, while property and assets are confiscated without compensation, violating
    international laws protecting civilians from forced seizures. Cases of enforced disappearances,
    murders and torture are common. The lack of reporting or redress mechanisms for victims allows
    the authorities to continue these actions with little fear of consequences. Citizens continue to face
    harassment and interrogation for allegedly extremist views (European Parliament, DG for External
    Policies, 2018). Non-Russian nationals in Crimea also face pressure to renounce their Ukrainian
    citizenship in favour of Russian citizenship. Failure to do so has resulted in Ukrainians being denied
    access to basic services, contrary to international humanitarian law. The UN has reported several
    deaths linked to Ukrainians being refused medical treatment. The international community has
    deplored Moscow violating international law by illegally conducting Russia’s Duma (2016) and
    presidential (2018) elections on the territory of Crimea.
    20. While Crimea is a diverse region with significant minority populations, Crimean Tatars and
    other groups face law enforcement raids, arrests, abductions and attacks by state authorities
    (UNHCR, 2017). In 2016, the Russian government outlawed the representative body of the Crimean
    Tatar people, the Mejlis, for “the use of propaganda and hatred toward Russia [and] inciting ethnic
    nationalism”. Several of the Mejlis’ leaders were later arrested and sentenced on separatism and
    extremism charges, while other Mejlis leaders were banned from entering Crimea. While some
    minority organisations remain, these groups face attacks and prosecution if they fail to support the
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    5
    Russian government’s official position on local issues. Most recent cases have involved forced
    searches and the detainment of human rights activists and their relatives (RFE/RL, 4 September
    2018). The protection of the Crimean Tatars’ cultural heritage in the peninsula is yet another
    important issue. The claims of misconduct during the ongoing restoration of the “Khan’s Palace” are
    a cause for concern in this regard. According to Mustafa Dzhemilev, the long-time leader of the
    Crimean Tatars and President Petro Poroshenko's envoy for Crimean Tatar affairs, Russia is trying
    to change the ethnic balance on the peninsula by relocating hundreds of thousands of people from
    various regions of Russia to Crimea.
    21. Freedom of religion is severely limited in Crimea, as the Russian authorities clamp down on
    the Orthodox Christians that are not under the Moscow Patriarchate (Freedom House, 2018).
    Following the illegal occupation of Crimea, Russian authorities requested that all religious institutions
    re-register, and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church under the Kyiv Patriarchate was raided by the
    Russian authorities in 2017. The most recent bid for the Ukrainian Orthodox Church’s independence
    from Moscow raises concerns that the already poor state of religious freedom in Crimea could
    deteriorate further.
    III. GEORGIA
    22. Georgia is one of the Black Sea’s freest countries; it has transformed remarkably since the
    “Rose Revolution” in 2003 and the first electoral transfer of power in 2012. According to Freedom
    House’s Nations in Transit ratings, Georgia’s “democracy score” improved from 4.93 in 2010 to 4.68
    in 2018 (slightly down from 4.61 in 2017), with one representing the most democratic and seven the
    least. Reforms have enabled democratic elections, modernised and digitalised state services, a
    mostly free press and lower corruption than in several EU member states. Civil society in Georgia is
    vibrant and largely committed to European values. The country has a clear sense of direction,
    pursuing membership in NATO and the EU. Through its contributions to NATO-led and other
    international missions, Georgia has turned into a provider of regional and global security. However,
    Georgia still faces significant challenges in terms of socio-economic development, improving the rule
    of law and overcoming political polarisation.
    23. Judicial reform has been a matter of urgency for Georgians, given reports of abuse of power
    by the pre-2012 government as well as allegations of political retribution in the wake of the
    government change in 2012. Consequently, the government has committed itself to promoting
    judicial independence and building public confidence in the courts through reform. These judicial
    reforms focused on making the key judicial institution, the High Council of Justice, more democratic
    and transparent through the recommendations of the Venice Commission. Georgia also embarked
    upon prosecutorial reform, aiming for the full de-politicisation and independence of the state
    prosecution service from the executive branch. The Venice Commission’s recommendations
    vis-à-vis the judicial sector are reflected in the new constitution. The authorities have made efforts
    to ensure the transparency of the court cases against Saakashvili-era officials, including the invitation
    of international (from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s Office for
    Democratic Institutions and Human Rights – OSCE/ODIHR) and domestic observers.
    24. However, two leading Georgian NGOs—the Georgian Young Lawyers’ Association and
    Transparency International Georgia—argue that the implementation of the judicial reform is flawed
    in practice. They claim that the reins of the judiciary are concentrated in the hands of a single group
    that ensures the prevalence of old-school, incompetent judges who often lack professional integrity
    in senior judicial positions. In their joint letter to the visiting US Vice President, Mike Pence,
    22 Georgian NGOs noted that the judicial system “remains prone to undue influences coming from
    the government as well as vested corporate interests within the judiciary.”
    25. When it comes to indictments of Saakashvili-era high-ranking officials, in November 2017, the
    European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) ruled that the pretrial detention of Georgia’s former Prime
    Minister, Vano Merabishvili, was based on a reasonable suspicion and justified in the beginning but
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    6
    not in later stages, when, according to the ECHR, the predominant purpose of detention became to
    obtain information on unrelated cases (“ulterior purpose”), including the one against the former
    President, Mikheil Saakashvili. In January 2018, Georgian authorities sentenced Mr Saakashvili in
    absentia for abuses of power.
    26. The political scene on the national and municipal levels is characterised by the overwhelming
    dominance of the ruling Georgian Dream-Democratic Georgia Party (GD-DG). The opposition is
    divided and thinly represented in the Parliament. The GD-DG supermajority in the Parliament is
    somewhat balanced by the centrist President, Giorgi Margvelashvili. His term in office expires in late
    2018. The opposition claims that businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder of the Georgian
    Dream coalition, exercises a disproportionate degree of influence over Georgian politics while not
    occupying any public office. It is noteworthy, however, that since April 2018, Mr Ivanishvili does
    occupy the position of chairman of GD-DG.
    27. There are signs of growing public discontent in Georgia, manifested by the eruption of
    weeks-long mass anti-government protests in Tbilisi over the summer of 2018. The protests were
    sparked by a Tbilisi court’s decision to acquit the suspects of the killing of two teens in a brawl in
    December 2017. In June 2018, the Georgian Prime Minister, Giorgi Kvirikashvili, resigned citing
    differences with the ruling party chairman on economic and other fundamental issues, and was
    replaced by the former Finance Minister, Mamuka Bakhtadze.
    28. Georgia largely conforms with international electoral standards. Despite “the entire context of
    the elections [being] shaped by the dominance of the ruling party” and “cases of pressure on voters
    and candidates,” the OSCE found the 2017 local elections to be fair. Although polarised and
    perceived as partisan, media outlets provided voters with an understanding of the candidates and
    issues. At the same time, the “winner-takes-all” mentality is reflected in the fact that the ruling party
    received approximately 90% of all campaign donations (NDI, 2017). The General Rapporteur shares
    the view of those who stress the need for state officials to foster an environment that promotes
    inclusive and pluralistic governance with strong opposition as an integral part of a healthy
    democracy.
    29. More recently, MPs under the Georgian Dream used their supermajority to change the
    Georgian Constitution. The original amendments were criticised by the opposition, the presidency
    and several NGOs, who alleged that many of the changes weaken checks on the majority party.
    Eventually, the ruling party agreed to make certain revisions, incorporating many of the
    recommendations of the Venice Commission. The new Constitution entrenches the status of Georgia
    as a parliamentary democracy while abandoning direct elections for the President. It provides for a
    greater independence of Supreme Court judges. It also envisages the switch to a fully proportional
    parliamentary election system, albeit by 2024 only.
    30. The Venice Commission issued a generally positive assessment of the new Constitution but
    criticised the postponed switch to the proportional system, noting that it was “the most important
    aspect of the reform.” It is expected, however, that the negative aspects of the postponement will be
    somewhat alleviated by the government’s promises to allow party blocks in the 2020 elections and
    reduce the election threshold to 3%. Georgia has also taken into account the Commission’s proposal
    of opting for a proportional system for the distribution of unallocated mandates.
    31. According to Freedom House, freedom of the press in Georgia has slightly improved when
    compared to the pre-2012 era but still remains in the “partly free” category. In fact, the World Press
    Freedom Index 2018 ranked Georgia 61st
    out of 180 countries, up from the 104th
    place in 2012. The
    internet is free in Georgia. Rustavi-2, the country’s most watched television broadcaster and a
    frequent critic of the government, has been consumed by an ownership controversy after a court
    ruled that its ownership be transferred to its previous owner, who alleged that he had been pressured
    to sell it by Mr Saakashvili. The European Court of Human Rights ordered that this decision be
    suspended sine die to preserve freedom of the media. In their letter to the US Vice President,
    Mike Pence, 22 Georgian NGOs noted that “[r]ecent developments on Georgia’s media landscape
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    7
    pose a threat to media pluralism in Georgia. Three broadcasting companies are owned by the
    individuals closely affiliated with the ruling party. Georgian Public Broadcaster, which enjoys
    significant public funding, has a new management politically affiliated with GD-DG. The only
    nationwide broadcaster providing alternative critical views – Rustavi 2 – is struggling for survival in
    a legal battle for its ownership.”
    32. Though economic reforms have strengthened the economy, these changes were unevenly felt
    across society. The real GDP growth rate dropped from 12.3% in 2007 to 2.7% in 2016. However,
    economic performance was better than expected in 2017 as GDP growth increased to 5% (World
    Bank, 2018). The World Bank identified the “stronger external environment, higher private
    consumption and the consistent macro-fiscal policy framework” as the key contributors to the
    improved GDP growth in 2017. According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP),
    today, 21% of the population lives below the poverty line. Unemployment, underemployment and
    economic inequality are pervasive.
    33. Consequently, the government announced a reform plan to improve its economic
    development. This plan included liberalising the income tax code as well as governance and
    educational reform. The educational reforms will try to address employment-related concerns by
    funding professionals who seek education in understaffed fields. The country has also built on its
    2016 Association Agreement with the EU. In line with past commitments, the government adopted a
    monitoring system for asset declarations by public officials in September 2017 as well as a revised
    anticorruption action plan. Reflecting these successes, observers noted an improvement in the
    business environment and the country jumped from 24th
    in 2016 to 9th
    in 2018 in the World Bank’s
    Doing Business survey.
    Occupied Territories of Abkhazia and the South Ossetia/Tskhinvali Region
    34. Years of de facto Russian control of the Georgian territories of Abkhazia and the South
    Ossetia/Tskhinvali region have led to state-sponsored persecutions and expulsions, displacing
    ethnic Georgians and dramatically changing the region’s demographics. The regions are
    increasingly dependent on Russia, which maintains more than 9,000 troops, some 2,600 Federal
    Security Service (FSB) border guards and heavy offensive armament in the territories. Russia has
    erected fences and other obstacles along the administrative border line, referred to as the
    “occupation line” by Tbilisi, displacing residents and disrupting people-to-people contacts. The
    leaders of these territories, particularly in the South Ossetia/Tskhinvali region, have lobbied for
    unification with Russia.
    35. Life in Abkhazia and the South Ossetia/Tskhinvali region is defined by weak institutions,
    pervasive poverty, strong control over the press and discrimination against ethnic Georgians.
    Patronage systems are reportedly common and law enforcement bodies often lack the necessary
    oversight. Reports suggest that local media are heavily controlled and that there are few
    opportunities for civil society activity. International observers have struggled to assess the human
    rights situation in both regions because the de facto authorities have persistently denied them access
    since 2008. Both elections and the judiciary are thought to be heavily controlled by Russian officials.
    36. The illegal arrest, torture and murder of a Georgian citizen, Archil Tatunashvili, in the South
    Ossetia/Tskhinvali region in February 2018 caused a public outcry in the Georgian society as well
    as strong reactions from the United States and the EU. In response, the government of Georgia
    approved the so-called Otkhozoria-Tatunashvili list – a black list consisting of 33 persons, mostly
    Abkhaz and South Ossetian militants, convicted or charged with grave crimes committed against
    ethnic Georgians in the territories of Abkhazia and the South Ossetia/Tskhinvali region since the
    early 1990s. These persons will face visa restrictions as well as bans on their financial and property
    transactions.
    37. Despite these tensions, Tbilisi continues to seek ways of promoting contact with people
    residing in these two territories. The Georgian government’s recently-announced peace initiative
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    8
    “A Step to a Better Future” aims at fostering trade, education and other links between divided
    communities. This initiative is likely to face opposition from Russia and the local de facto authorities.
    Support from Georgia’s key NATO and EU partners is important if this initiative is to have any chance
    of success.
    IV. THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA
    38. While the Republic of Moldova was once thought of as a beacon among the EU’s Eastern
    Partnership states, it has struggled to keep its European integration prospects alive in recent years.
    The country plunged into a deep crisis in 2014, when USD 1 billion, about 12.5% of the country’s
    annual GDP, vanished from three Moldovan banks, leading to a sharp fall in the national currency’s
    value and a freeze in international assistance by the EU, the IMF, and the World Bank. Following
    the scandal, the nominally pro-European government suffered a crushing loss of trust, discrediting
    European integration among much of the population. In 2016, the country elected a pro-Russian
    candidate, Igor Dodon, as President.
    39. As a parliamentary republic, the Republic of Moldova retained its nominally pro-European
    government, but it remains to be seen if the pro-European coalition will survive the parliamentary
    elections scheduled for early 2019, following a vote in Parliament to reschedule the elections that
    were previously to be held in November 20182
    . A poll conducted by the International Republican
    Institute (IRI) in June 2018 found that 69% of Moldovans think that their country is moving in the
    “wrong direction”. In the same poll, when asked what the most important problems that the country
    is facing are, 35% indicated low income/pensions, with 31% indicating corruption and 30% indicating
    unemployment (IRI, 2018).
    40. These developments are symptomatic of the poverty, corruption and weak rule of law that
    define the state. Though there are opportunities for improvement, mainly through cooperation with
    the EU in the framework of the Moldova-EU Association Agreement (AA) that entered in force in
    July 2016, appreciable change requires political will. In an April 2018 report, the European
    Commission again highlighted the need for the Republic of Moldova to reform its judicial sector and
    increase its fight against corruption. The European Parliament, in a report from June 2018, also
    made special mention of the need for further investigation into the bank fraud that took place in the
    country in 2014 (European Parliament, 2018).
    41. Chief among the Republic of Moldova’s problems is growing oligarchic power consolidation.
    Observers suggest that the country is captured by oligarchic interests and that its systems reward
    the vested interests of a few politicians and oligarchs (TI Moldova, 2017). The most powerful of these
    officials is Vladimir Plahotniuc. In addition to running companies involved in oil, banking, hospitality
    and real estate, he owns about 75% of the Moldovan media, including four television channels and
    three radio stations (Popsoi, 2018). Observers allege that Mr Plahotniuc has exploited geopolitical
    tensions for his benefit. President Dodon’s close relationship with the Russian President,
    Vladimir Putin, whom he meets with regularly, allows Mr Plahotniuc and the nominally pro-European
    government to present themselves to Western countries as a necessary bulwark against Russian
    influence and thus avoid condemnation (Calus, 2018).
    42. Following the entry into force of the AA, the government launched a series of reforms designed
    to introduce European standards in governance, the economy and the judiciary. These reforms had
    some positive effects. The country somewhat recovered from the 2014 banking fraud and its
    economy is currently growing by about 4% a year. Inflation has declined, and budget deficits have
    reduced to 2% of GDP while the public debt has stabilised at about 40% of GDP. The flow of
    remittances has also stabilised. The Republic of Moldova has also established designated
    anticorruption institutions and adopted an anti-money laundering law.
    2 The new President’s stance towards NATO is illustrated by the fact that the opening of a NATO liaison
    office has been delayed for over a year due to presidential opposition.
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    9
    43. However, the pace of reforms is not satisfactory by most international standards. In
    October 2017, the EU withheld a loan because of the Republic of Moldova’s failure to implement
    reforms to its justice system. Moreover, the EU is concerned about the selective use of law
    enforcement and selective justice in the country. Transparency International Moldova has noted the
    use of law enforcement bodies for political aims as well as irregularities in court proceedings that
    favour pro-government officials.
    44. According to the EU, more needs to be done to ensure the implementation of the
    anti-money-laundering legislation and to continue strengthening the operational capacities and
    independence of the anticorruption bodies. In a June 2018 poll conducted by the International
    Republican Institute, 82% of respondents reported that corruption was a “very big problem” for the
    Republic of Moldova and 42% of respondents said that the greatest cause of corruption was the
    “lack of government control and oversights” (IRI, 2018). In Transparency International’s 2017
    Corruption Perception Index, the Republic of Moldova ranked 122nd
    out of 180 countries, far below
    many of its neighbours. The Republic of Moldova has yet to implement the Venice Commission and
    the OSCE/ODIHR’s recommendations on party and campaign financing.
    45. Although the Republic of Moldova has a good record of holding relatively free and
    well-administered elections, its Western partners, including the Venice Commission, are very critical
    of the new electoral law establishing a mixed electoral system. The change largely benefits
    Mr Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party, which was at risk of losing seats by falling below the parliamentary
    threshold in a purely proportional system, and Mr Dodon’s Socialist Party, the Republic of Moldova’s
    largest party. Representatives of genuinely pro-European civic movements without links to local
    businessmen are likely to find it more difficult to be elected in single-mandate constituencies.
    46. Anti-government protests broke out in Chisinau in August 2018 over both alleged corruption
    and the mayoral election in the Moldovan capital. The mayoral election was ruled invalid by a
    Moldovan court because the winning pro-European candidate urged people to vote via a Facebook
    live post on election day. The EU, the United States and Canada have all condemned the nulling of
    the election, saying that it posed a threat to Moldovan democracy. In July 2018, the EU also withheld
    a EUR 100 million aid package that was to be sent to the Republic of Moldova because of the
    controversial mayoral election (Harris, 2018).
    47. Meanwhile, observers report improvements in minority rights. The United Nations reports that
    anti-discrimination policies are observed in audiovisual communication and mass media and that
    judges are trained on how to prevent and combat discrimination. The government approved an action
    plan to support the Roma people from 2016 to 2020. Further, LGBTI persons can peacefully
    demonstrate and their rights are largely respected.
    48. Despite the dominance of Mr Plahotniuc’s media outlets, the media scene in the Republic of
    Moldova retains a certain diversity. However, according to Freedom House, the country’s media is
    “trapped by the competing interests of political parties and affiliated business groups.” The EU has
    urged the Republic of Moldova to speed up the implementation of the reform of the audiovisual code
    that would enhance transparency and competition in the sector. The Republic of Moldova has
    banned re-transmissions of Russian radio and television programmes as part of the country’s
    anti-propaganda efforts – a move that could be explained by the pervasiveness of the Kremlin’s
    disinformation in the country, although the EU had doubts about the proportionality of this decision.
    49. The idea of a reunification of the Republic of Moldova with Romania has also recently received
    attention. In August 2018, thousands of Moldovans rallied in the capital of Chisinau to call for a
    reunification with Romania. Those who gathered carried Romanian and Moldovan flags and shouted
    “Unity” and “Bessarabia, Romanian land”, the former name of Moldova. (Washington Post, 2018). In
    a symbolic vote earlier this year, the Romanian parliament also voiced its support for reunification,
    during a special session marking the 100th
    anniversary of Moldova joining Romania after World War
    One (Ilie, 2018).
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    10
    Transnistria
    50. The breakaway region of Transnistria hosts about 2,000 Russian troops as a “peacekeeping”
    force. The authorities of the Republic of Moldova call on Russia to honour its commitment, made in
    1999, to withdraw its troops from Moldovan territory. Chisinau also seeks the transformation of the
    current peacekeeping operation into a civilian mission under international mandate. NATO has been
    consistent in urging Russia to abide by its international obligations, including respecting the territorial
    integrity of the Republic of Moldova. The de facto authorities have periodically championed
    annexation by Russia. In the region’s so-called “2016 presidential campaign”, candidates largely
    competed to show their loyalty to Russia. The local economy depends on Russian aid. Since 2006,
    Transnistria has not paid for Russian natural gas provided by Gazprom. Rather, debt continues to
    build for the region, which Moscow expects Chisinau to pay. By 2017, Chisinau’s debt totalled
    roughly USD 6.5 billion, of which USD 5.8 billion are a result of Transnistria (Necsutu, January 2018).
    51. In August 2018, for the third year in a row, Russia held a joint military exercise with Transnistria
    separatist troops simulating an attack on the Dniester River, the de facto border with the Republic of
    Moldova. Moldovan authorities said these exercises were unauthorised and utilised unregistered
    amphibious vehicles. Both Moldovan and OSCE observers were banned from inspecting the military
    equipment used in the exercises. In July 2018, the UN General Assembly passed a Moldovan
    resolution asking Russia to withdraw its troops from Transnistria (Necsutu, August 2018).
    52. The democracy and human rights situation in Transnistria is unsatisfactory. As is the case in
    most frozen conflict zones in the Black Sea region, the government has severely reduced
    opportunities for political competition and maintains a justice system where arbitrary and politically
    motivated arrests are common. Dominating almost all aspects of life in the area is Sheriff Enterprises,
    a monopolistic business conglomerate owned by the region’s richest man. The region’s
    self-proclaimed President, Yevgeny Shevchuk, lost an election in 2016 to a candidate backed by
    Sheriff Enterprises. While in power, Mr Shevchuk attempted to reduce Sheriff’s economic grip on the
    country. After his loss, Mr Shevchuk fled to the Republic of Moldova. Though ethnic Moldovans
    comprise a significant minority of the region’s population, they face severe discrimination by ruling
    authorities, according to the Freedom House. Crime, including human trafficking, is common.
    V. RUSSIA
    53. Despite having the formal attributes of a democratic state, such as elections, a Parliament,
    political parties and a liberal Constitution, Russia has slid increasingly into a full-scale autocracy
    under Mr Vladimir Putin, who has led the country either as President or as Prime minister since 1999.
    Having entered his fourth term as president in 2018, Mr Putin has already been at Russia’s helm
    longer than any other Russian leader since Stalin. Except for a brief period in 2011-2012, when
    mass protests forced the Kremlin to introduce temporary liberalisation measures, such as more
    flexible party registration rules, the regime has methodically tightened its grip on power and
    subjugated all sectors of state and society, including main media channels, the Parliament, political
    parties, oligarchs and federal entities.
    54. On basic democracy and human rights indicators, Putin’s Russia fails across the board.
    Freedom House identifies Russia as one of the least free countries in the world. Since 1999, all
    elections in Russia have failed to meet OSCE standards. The unabashed falsifications and
    ballot-stuffing during the 2011 parliamentary elections prompted mass protests on the streets of
    Moscow unseen since the early 1990s. In 2018, thousands of protesters joined Alexei Navalny, an
    anticorruption crusader and the country’s most prominent opposition figure, in protesting Mr Putin’s
    fourth inauguration – later Mr Navalny was one of the 1,600 detained people across the country. In
    September, during the regional elections, Mr Navalny inspired nation-wide protests, whilst serving
    his 30-day jail sentence, in response to the government’s plan to raise the retirement age by five
    years. This resulted in over 1,000 demonstrators being (often forcefully) detained at protests across
    the country, in 33 towns and cities (RFE/RL, 10 September 2018).
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    11
    55. To buttress the crumbling credibility of Russian electoral institutions, in 2014, the Kremlin
    appointed a renowned civil society activist, Ms Ella Pamfilova, as the chair of the Central Electoral
    Committee. Under her watch, the technical side of the voting process somewhat improved, but the
    overall environment of supressing the opposition and tilting the playing field in favour of the
    incumbent remained intact. Most blatantly, the authorities refused to register Mr Alexey Navalny as
    a candidate in the 2018 presidential elections. Authorities indicted Mr Navalny on trumped-up
    criminal charges. His brother Oleg was given a prison sentence and was effectively held as a hostage
    to pressure Alexei Navalny into silence, before being released in June 2018.
    56. The Presidential elections were not the only vote in 2018 to be marred by irregularities – the
    Kremlin-backed incumbent won the Moscow mayoral elections with 70% of the votes after two
    independent liberal candidates were not allowed to run against him (RFE/RL, 4 September 2018).
    Meanwhile, the Parliament has been turned into a rubber-stamp institution with no actual power.
    Real opposition parties were purged from the Parliament in 2003, while individual parliamentarians
    associated with the democratic opposition lost their seats in 2016 elections. The role of the
    opposition in the State Duma is performed by the far-right Liberal Democratic Party, headed by
    Mr Vladimir Zhirinovsky, and the reformed Communist Party, which unites tenets of Stalinist and
    conservative Orthodox ideologies. The pro-Putin United Russia party controls more than two-thirds
    of the seats in the Duma and 77 of 85 regional governor positions.
    57. Most opposition figures and journalists face constant harassment and attacks by hackers; the
    details of their private life are leaked on the Internet. Some regime critics are attacked physically by
    unknown men (Ekho Moskvy journalist Tatyana Felgenhauer), poisoned (opposition figure
    Vladimir Kara-Murza), imprisoned (Oleg Navalny and head of the Chechnya office of Memorial,
    Oyub Titiev), forced into exile (businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky, journalist Yulia Latynina,
    economist Sergei Guriev, and head of Jailed Russia—an organisation that provides assistance to
    inmates—Olga Romanova) or even murdered (politician Boris Nemtsov, journalist Anna
    Politkovskaya, civil activist Natalya Estemirova, and lawyer Sergei Magnitski). The activities of
    independent civil society organisations, such as Memorial, which is devoted to collecting information
    on the crimes of Stalinism, and Golos, an independent election monitoring NGO, are regularly
    obstructed, including by designating them as “foreign agents”3
    , a term which has extremely negative
    connotations in the Russian language.
    58. The media, especially television, is under the heavy-handed control of the government.
    According to a 2016 poll by the independent Levada Center, also labelled as “foreign agent,”
    television remains the primary source of information for 80% of Russians. Major television channels
    do not permit any criticism of the regime and especially not of Mr Putin. Selected opponents are
    occasionally invited to primetime shows, such as that of a prominent propagandist,
    Vladimir Solovyov, only to be interrupted as they speak, verbally assaulted, and booed by the
    audience. The last bastions of free speech—the Ekho Moskvy radio station, Dozhd TV, and the
    Novaya Gazeta newspaper—are kept for façade purposes, but their reach is limited. In 2016, 259
    journalists were jailed (US Helsinki Commission, 2017). In 2017, two investigative journalists,
    Nikolay Andrushchenko and Dmitriy Popkov, were murdered, and in 2018 the investigative journalist
    Maksim Borodin (who earlier reported on the deaths of Russian mercenaries in Syria) died
    mysteriously.
    59. The internet used to be relatively free in Russia, which greatly helped internet-savvy activists
    such as Mr Navalny, but the government has taken steps to exert greater control over this domain.
    These efforts include forcing a change in ownership on the popular social media platform vKontakte
    and the online news portal Lenta.ru and adopting a law banning anonymous web surfing software
    (VPNs) that allows users to hide their IP addresses. Russian social media users also face prison
    3 Under the 2012 Foreign Agent Law, non-profit organisations in Russia that receive foreign donations
    and engage in “political activities” must register and declare themselves as “foreign agents”. In 2014
    and 2015 this law was further expanded to cover a larger range of institutions (Human Rights Watch,
    2018).
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    12
    sentences for “liking” or reposting messages that the authorities deem inappropriate, such as ones
    challenging the legality of the Russian illegal occupation of Crimea or criticising Russia’s actions in
    Syria.
    60. There exist further concerns over privacy on the internet as, in April 2018, Russia began
    procedures to shut down the popular encrypted messaging application Telegram over alleged
    terrorism concerns. The blocking of Telegram, which is widely used not only by the public but also
    by prominent officials, is difficult to enforce due to Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) which still enable
    users to log in. The ban led to over 12,000 Russian citizens taking to the streets on 30 April 2018 to
    protest that decision. In August 2018, it was announced that the authorities were considering a
    reversal of the ban if Telegram agreed to provide data of terrorist suspects to the authorities.
    Subsequently, Telegram updated its privacy policy noting that the company might share user data
    with the authorities, provided there was a court decision. The conflict with Telegram is significant as
    the Kremlin’s efforts to curtail internet freedom might mobilise those parts of society that were hitherto
    uninterested in politics and had no quarrel with the regime.
    61. Despite Mr Putin’s claim to have liberated Russia from the clutches of oligarchs and the
    criminal anarchy of the “wild 1990s”, Russia remains a profoundly—and increasingly—corrupt state.
    According to Transparency International, Russia is the most corrupt country in Europe and one of
    the most corrupt countries in the world (ranked 135th
    out of 180). The state sector in Russia expanded
    from 35% of GDP in 2005 to 70% in 2015 (Aslund, 2017). While the regime cracked down on the
    oligarchs of the 1990s, a new class of immensely wealthy people, often owing their wealth to their
    personal ties with Mr Putin, has emerged. These officials include Gennady Timchenko, Arkady and
    Boris Rotenberg and Yuri Kovalchuk. According to investigations by Mr Navalny, the Prime Minister,
    Dmitri Medvedev, has also accumulated wealth measured in billions of US dollars, while Mr Putin is
    believed to have created an offshore financial empire managed by a proxy, his family friend musician
    Sergei Roldugin. The Putin-era oligarchs lack the independence their predecessors had in the
    1990s.
    62. Corruption permeates all levels of the administration, and is especially visible in major
    infrastructure projects, such as the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi and the building of the Kerch
    Strait Bridge that will connect the Taman and Crimean peninsulas. There is no systematic approach
    to reducing corruption and cronyism. The sentencing of former economic minister Alexei Ulyukayev
    for allegedly trying to solicit a USD 2 million bribe, for example, is more a manifestation of inter-elite
    fights than a concerted campaign. Moscow’s inability and unwillingness to seriously tackle corruption
    fuels public discontent. Many thousands of Russians participated in anticorruption demonstrations
    across Russia between March and November 2017 and in April and May 2018.
    63. The ideological grounds of Mr Putin’s regime are notoriously flexible, but they generally reflect
    the tenets of social conservatism, including the rejection of “decadent” Western liberalism, an
    emphasis on “traditional values”, the paternalistic nature of the state, ultra-patriotism, Orthodox
    religion and blatant militarism. In practice, this ideology leads to growing obscurantism in Russian
    society, the ban of non-mainstream religious movements such as Jehovah’s Witnesses, the
    censorship of the film industry and the art scene, as well as laws banning “gay propaganda”4
    . The
    Russian Parliament recently decriminalised acts of domestic violence not involving serious bodily
    harm.
    64. It is particularly regrettable that Russia’s appalling human rights record and the absence of the
    rule of law have been extended to the regions of Ukraine and Georgia under de facto Russian control.
    4 The most shocking case of attacks on the LGBT+ community was reported by Novaya Gazeta journalists
    in 2017. They discovered that more than 100 gay men were abducted and tortured, and some even
    murdered, by the authorities in Chechnya. The authorities deny all accusations and closed the
    investigation. Novaya Gazeta journalists themselves faced multiple threats for their investigation. In
    general, the human rights situation in Russia’s North Caucasus is dire: there are numerous reports of
    abductions, torture and extra-judicial killings.
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    13
    VI. NATO ALLIES
    65. Romania has done much to improve on democratic norms, the rule of law and human rights
    since joining the EU in 2007, and it is ahead of its neighbours in the region in many areas. It is a
    stable democracy with a vibrant civil society and free media. In 2017, the country’s economy is
    estimated to have grown by an impressive 6.9%. Nevertheless, in the EU context, Romania still lags
    in some areas. An EU member since 2007, Romania has not yet been able to join the Schengen
    area or the Eurozone. In its accession to the EU, Romania was subjected to the EU’s Cooperation
    and Verification Mechanism (CVM) to address shortcomings in judicial reform and the fight against
    corruption. During its ten years under the CVM, Romania created key institutions and enacted
    important legislation to address these gaps. In its latest progress report from July 2018, the European
    Commission (EC) reported that the “ongoing reform of the justice laws risks undoing progress
    achieved in the last 10 years and harming judicial independence”. However, the EC did note a
    “positive assessment of the judicial system and the role of the magistracy in pursuing reform”
    (European Commission, 2018).
    66. Much has been done to stamp out high-level corruption. Since 2013, the National
    Anticorruption Directorate (DNA) has reportedly sent to trial 68 High Officials, one Prime Minister,
    two Deputy Prime Ministers, 11 Ministers and former Ministers, 39 deputies and 14 senators.
    Meanwhile, Romania has improved its standing in Transparency International’s Corruption
    Perception Index, going from 43 points in 2014 to 48 in 2017 – with 0 representing highly corrupt
    and 100 representing no corruption. The European Commission’s President, Jean-Claude Juncker,
    has announced that he expects Romania to be in a position to terminate the CVM by the end of his
    term in 2019.
    67. Differences regarding corruption remain a large aspect of the political landscape in Romania.
    In July 2018, President Klaus Iohannis gave into pressure from the Social Democrat-led government
    to remove Romania’s chief anticorruption prosecutor, Laura Kovesi, from office after months of
    ignoring calls to do so. The government claims that Mrs Kovesi overstepped her mandate and that
    her approach to fighting corruption was selective. Since her appointment in 2013, the EU has
    applauded the anticorruption prosecutor’s role in raising the conviction rates for corruption among
    top business and political leaders in Romania (Hopkins and Peel, 2018).
    68. Much of the country’s progress can be described as two steps forward, one step back.
    Periodically, ruling coalitions have adopted legislation that could be interpreted as attempts to create
    loopholes for corruption and the reduction of the independence of judiciary. These legislative
    initiatives are criticised by the opposition, civil society and the European institutions. On
    two occasions, controversial legislation prompted mass protests. Protests in early 2017 were
    reportedly the largest in the country’s history since the end of the Cold War. The protesters
    succeeded in inducing the government to repeal the legislation, exemplifying participatory
    democracy. More recently, tens of thousands of Romanians protested legislation adopted in
    December 2017. The European Commission, the US State Department, seven EU member states,
    thousands of Romanian justices, and the country’s President, Mr Klaus Iohannis, criticised the
    legislation as potentially encroaching on judicial independence. In April 2018, the Group of States
    against Corruption of the Council of Europe (GRECO) published a report on Romania, expressing
    serious concerns about certain aspects of the laws on the status of judges and prosecutors and
    about draft amendments to the criminal legislation.
    69. In August 2018, mass anti-government protests – led by members of the large Romanian
    diaspora5
    – broke out again across Romania against more legislative changes which critics claim
    will weaken the rule of law in the country. Protests turned violent, especially after the police used
    tear gas and water cannons to disperse crowds, resulting in more than 400 injuries to both protesters
    and security personnel. President Iohannis condemned this excessive use of force.
    5 Between 3 to 5 million Romanians are working abroad.
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    14
    70. According to the Council of Europe, Romania has made progress in promoting minority
    cultures and education, but it noted that a coherent legal framework for the protection of minority
    rights is still lacking. In particular, Romania was urged to do more to combat discrimination of the
    Roma people.
    71. While it is an entrenched and free democracy with a fast-growing economy (3.8% in 2017),
    Bulgaria has more work to do to tackle corruption. Like Romania, Bulgaria has been subject to CVM
    procedures since 2007. The country is making progress towards meeting the requirements for joining
    the Schengen area and the Eurozone. Bulgaria has received passive access to the Schengen
    information system and a positive assessment of its most recent application for the European
    Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM 2) and the Banking Union within the EU. In the first half of 2018,
    Bulgaria successfully managed to accomplish its role in the rotating Presidency of the Council of the
    EU.
    72. The European Commission’s regular assessments emphasise the country’s progress,
    particularly in terms of tackling organised crime, but the country’s record in reforming its judiciary
    and fighting corruption is generally seen as less positive than that of neighbouring Romania. The
    Commission points out “a clear need to accelerate the pace of reform” and “to create an atmosphere
    of open debate and transparency on key decisions”, while the Council stressed that “overall progress
    now needs to be further accelerated urgently”.
    73. Overall, the new Bulgarian government, which has been in place since mid-2017, appears
    determined to put the reform process back on track. A new anticorruption bill was recently vetoed by
    the President, only to be re-adopted again by the Parliament, overruling the veto. The bill establishes
    a new body charged with investigating top officials and allows that body to use wiretapping. The
    critics of the bill are concerned that it does not ensure the independence of the new body or offer full
    protection to whistle-blowers.
    74. While these recent reforms are expected to have a positive effect, the current situation in
    Bulgaria is far from optimal. The Centre for the Study of Democracy in Sofia recently produced a
    scathing report on corruption in Bulgaria, going as far as to claim that state corruption has reached
    dimensions that can be described as state capture. Bulgaria still lacks a track record of final court
    decisions on convictions in high-level anticorruption cases. Anticorruption campaigners also point to
    the influence of certain business entities, such as the privately-owned Russian energy company
    Lukoil, and the signs of corruption surrounding the case of the collapse of the Corporate Commercial
    Bank (Rankin, 2017).
    75. Reporters Without Borders currently ranks Bulgaria lower in the World Press Freedom Index
    than any other EU member, mainly due to “an environment dominated by corruption and collusion
    between media, politicians, and oligarchs”. The watchdog also suggests that the government
    allocates EU funding to certain media outlets in a non-transparent manner. Human rights groups
    also criticise a member of Government and leader of United Patriots, the junior partner within the
    ruling coalition, for making insulting statements vis-à-vis the Roma minority, and it should be noted
    that this member of Government was sentenced by a first-instance court to refrain from similar
    infractions in the future. The Government has adopted a National Strategy for Roma Integration and
    adopts annual reports on specific steps in the integration of the Roma people. Nevertheless,
    Amnesty International criticised Bulgaria for not doing enough to address the cases of hate speech
    and hate crimes directed at minority groups, including Turks and Roma. In March 2017, Bulgarian
    nationalists attempted to block the country’s border to prevent Bulgarian Turks residing in Turkey
    from participating in the Bulgarian elections. Sofia accused Ankara of trying to interfere in Bulgarian
    elections by using Bulgaria’s sizeable (9% of the population) Turkish minority, while
    President Recep Tayyip Erdogan slammed Bulgaria for “putting pressure” on the Turkish minority.
    76. More positively, Bulgaria has been praised for its progress in implementing GRECO’s
    recommendations on corruption prevention with respect to members of Parliament, judges and
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    15
    prosecutors. GRECO welcomed the efforts by the Parliament of Bulgaria to better involve civil society
    in the legislative process, tackle breaches of ethical rules by MPs and strengthen the obligation for
    members of the judiciary to present regular asset declarations.
    77. Bulgaria was also one of the first EU Member States to adopt the working definition of
    antisemitism that was agreed upon by the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) in
    2016. The Government appointed a Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs as National Coordinator for
    the fight against antisemitism. During its presidency of the Council of the EU, Bulgaria placed the
    topics of freedom of speech and expression, freedom of religion and belief and combating
    antisemitism high on the EU agenda.
    78. Some members of the government as well as the opposition have vehemently opposed the
    plans for Bulgaria to ratify the Istanbul Convention on preventing and combating violence against
    women and domestic violence. In July 2018, the Bulgarian Constitutional Court ruled that the
    Convention does not conform to the Bulgarian constitution, thus making its ratification virtually
    impossible. Human rights groups have criticised the Court’s decision.
    79. Faced with mounting external and internal pressures, Turkey’s political system has undergone
    substantial changes. In July 2016, Turkey was shaken by a brutal military coup attempt that claimed
    251 lives and left more than 2,000 people wounded. If successful, the coup would likely have had
    disastrous consequences for regional security and led to a civil war. All major political parties united
    in their condemnation of the coup.
    80. The coup was widely and firmly condemned by the Euro-Atlantic community. However, there
    is a prevailing view among Turkey’s Western allies and human rights groups that the government’s
    actions in the wake of the coup have been disproportionate. This view was expressed repeatedly by
    members of the NATO PA during the Assembly’s Annual Session in Istanbul in November 2016.
    81. Reportedly, some 50,000 people have been detained (excluding those who later released) and
    150,000 civil servants and academics have lost their jobs, while 1,500 civil society organisations,
    19 labour unions, over 2,000 schools, and more than 150 media outlets have been closed. Members
    of Parliament from the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) have been prosecuted.
    Following the passage of a May 2016 law that lifted the parliamentary immunity of 138 MPs, 12 HDP
    deputies, including those in party leadership positions, were arrested on terrorism-related charges.
    By March 2017, the state of emergency had allowed the government to replace the mayors in an
    estimated 82 out of 103 municipalities controlled by an affiliate of the HDP (Freedom House, 2018).
    The Turkish government established a so-called OHAL (State of Emergency) Commission for
    citizens affected by the purges and, according to the government, the cases of some 40,000
    employees have been reviewed to date.
    82. For nearly two years after the coup, Turkey remained under a state of emergency, which was
    finally ended in July 2018. The government argued the state of emergency was necessary given the
    severity of the threat and claimed that the principles of necessity and proportionality were strictly
    observed. This view was not shared by President Erdogan’s critics, both domestically and in the
    West. For instance, the European Parliament noted that the state of emergency has been “used to
    silence dissent and goes far beyond any legitimate measures to combat threats to national security”.
    83. European politicians and human rights watchdogs have repeatedly expressed their concern
    over the detention of several prominent civil society activists, including Taner Kilic, the president of
    Amnesty International Turkey, and the businessman Osman Kavala, an organiser of the Gezi Park
    protests in December 2013. Trade union organisations have expressed their protest against the
    arrest of Elif Cuhadar, an executive committee member of the Turkish trade union KESK.
    Human Rights Watch has collected information on 13 cases of torture and ill-treatment of
    coup-related detainees with varying degrees of severity. The Turkish authorities have also been
    criticised for their stance on LGBT+ initiatives. Ankara imposed an indefinite ban on any event
    organised by LGBT+ organisations following three consecutive bans of the Istanbul Pride march. On
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    16
    a positive side, in recent months, Ankara seems to have stopped hinting at the possible
    re-introduction of the death penalty, a move that, according to EC President Jean-Claude Juncker,
    would effectively block Turkey’s EU accession bid.
    84. By most accounts, the space for media freedom in Turkey has narrowed in recent years.
    According to the Turkish Journalists’ Association, about 160 journalists are in jail, with most being
    detained after the failed coup. The detention of Deniz Yucel, a German journalist accused by Ankara
    of espionage activities, has strained the relations between Germany and Turkey. Mr Yucel was
    released in February 2018, but German officials claim that five other Germans are still in a Turkish
    jail on unsubstantiated charges. In March 2018, the Financial Times reported the sale of Dogan
    Media Group, which owned the newspapers Hurriyet and Posta, and the television stations CNN
    Turk and Kanal D, to Demiroren Holding (Pitel, 2018). The sale of “some of Turkey’s most prominent
    media titles” to Erdogan Demiroren, a majority shareholder of Demiroren Holding with “ties to
    President Recep Tayyip Erdogan”, raised concerns regarding the government’s tightening grip on
    the Turkish press. Specifically, the sale of Dogan Media means that “over 90 per cent of [Turkish]
    media [in circulation] is controlled by those with close ties to [President] Erdogan’’ (Bucak, 2018).
    85. The constitutional system became defined by super-presidentialism following the April 2017
    referendum, which the government won by a narrow majority. OSCE/ODIHR monitors concluded
    that the referendum “took place on an unlevel playing field”. The constitutional changes were
    designed to introduce a US-style system where the President also heads the cabinet and the
    Parliament is institutionally separated from the executive, with MPs being prohibited from serving as
    ministers. However, in practice, the new Turkish system lacks the elements of checks and balances
    that are inherent in the US model, including the requirement that the Parliament authorise key
    appointments and be able to compel executive branch officials to testify. In Turkey, the President
    retains the right to dissolve the Parliament and has increased powers vis-à-vis the judiciary. The
    Venice Commission concluded that, by removing necessary checks and balances, the amended
    Constitution “would risk degeneration into an authoritarian presidential system”. Nevertheless, the
    Parliament retains meaningful powers and has the potential to play a role as guardian of the Turkish
    democracy.
    86. These constitutional changes officially came into force after Turkey’s recent early presidential
    and parliamentary elections on 24 June 2018. Turkish voters re-elected Mr Erdogan by 52.5% of
    votes, extending his term for the next five years as President of Turkey. Mr Erdogan’s main
    adversary, Muharrem Ince, the candidate of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), won 30.8% of the
    presidential polls (Guler, 2018). By winning an overall 53.6%, the electoral alliance between
    Erdogan’s Justice and Development (AKP) party and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) secured
    the majority of the parliamentary seats. Notably, the pro-Kurdish HDP, whose leader
    Selahattin Demirtas was running for presidency from jail, passed the electoral threshold and entered
    the parliament by securing 11.6% of the votes. The OSCE election observation mission concluded
    that “voters had genuine choice in Turkish elections, but incumbent president and ruling party
    enjoyed undue advantage, including in media”.
    87. Over the course of 2018, Turkish-US relations have deteriorated, mainly over the case of
    US pastor Andrew Brunson, detained in Turkey on alleged terrorism and espionage charges. The
    US administration dismisses the charges as not supported by the evidence. In August 2018, the US
    Department of Treasury imposed sanctions on two Turkish ministers (Justice and Interior) in relation
    to the detention of Brunson. The US administration followed up on these sanctions by doubling tariffs
    on Turkish steel and aluminium. Currently, pastor Brunson is held under house arrest until his next
    trial.
    88. From January to September 2018, the Turkish lira lost more than 40% of its value against the
    US dollar. This occurred due to a combination of factors, ranging from the consequences of the
    credit-fuelled growth, decreased investor confidence and the worsening of relations with the
    United States. The government seeks to direct the monetary policy, and, at the time of writing, it is
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    17
    not clear if Turkey’s central bank will be able to demonstrate its independence and increase the
    interest rates above the levels suggested by the government.
    89. Developments in Turkey in 2016-2017 convinced Freedom House to change its assessment
    of Turkey’s status from “partly free” to “not free”. Consequently, Turkey became the only NATO
    country in this category (Albania and Montenegro ranked as “partly free”). According to Transparency
    International’s Corruption Perception Index, Turkey ranks 81st
    among 180 countries, scoring 40
    points—down from 50 points in 2013. Among NATO Allies, only Albania’s score is lower.
    90. Political polarisation in Turkish society is deep. According to a public opinion survey by the
    Center for American Progress (CAP), supporters of the ruling AKP differ dramatically from supporters
    of the opposition CHP and HDP in how they assess political and socio-economic realities in Turkey.
    While more than 60% of AKP supporters assess these realities favourably, only 6% of CHP
    supporters share that view (Makovsky, 2017).
    91. On the other hand, the CAP poll suggests that the alarmist warnings of growing religious
    fundamentalism in Turkey are unsubstantiated. The overwhelming majority of Turks continue to
    support the secular model. Atatürk, the father of secular Turkey, is viewed positively by more than
    80% of the population. The support base of the ruling AKP is also mostly pro-secular: only a quarter
    of its supporters support a “Sharia state”, and younger Turks—including AKP voters—are even less
    supportive of the centrality of religion in state affairs (Makovsky, 2017).
    92. According to Article 2 of the Constitution, Turkey is a democratic, secular and social state
    governed by the rule of law. Since the establishment of the Republic of Turkey, there has been a
    considerable increase in the rate of women’s participation in areas including education, employment
    and decision-making mechanisms. A Strategy Paper and Action Plan on Women’s Empowerment
    has been prepared to cover the period of 2018-2023. Nevertheless, initiatives that seem to contradict
    the Western secular model are occasionally announced, such as the proposal by President Erdogan
    to criminalise adultery. According to the President, “[Turkish] society holds a different status in terms
    of its moral values. This is an issue where Turkey is different from most Western countries” (Rezaian,
    2018). According to the gender gap index of the World Economic Forum, which assesses access to
    health services, educational attainment, economic participation and political empowerment, Turkey
    ranks 130 out of 144 countries surveyed. Just 34% of women in Turkey work, by far the lowest
    proportion within the OECD, where the average is 63% (Lowen, 2018).
    VII. CONCLUSIONS: ENHANCING THE EURO-ATLANTIC COMMUNITY’S APPROACH TO
    THE BLACK SEA REGION
    93. Many countries in the Black Sea region face substantial obstacles to achieving international
    standards pertaining to human rights, the rule of law and democratic governance. Parts of the region
    have deteriorated alarmingly, particularly in territories under de facto Russian control, where
    authorities use the difficult security situation and/or the threat of terrorism to justify breaches of civil
    liberties. This situation creates a vicious cycle and distorts the balance between liberties and
    security. The General Rapporteur believes that democratic backsliding in parts of the region
    contributes significantly to the current levels of tension and undermines the efforts towards
    reconciliation and dialogue among Black Sea states.
    94. As an intergovernmental political-military alliance, NATO has been mainly involved in the Black
    Sea region through: introducing reassurance measures for NATO Black Sea Allies (Tailored Forward
    Presence) and assisting partner countries – Georgia, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine – in the
    fields of defence and security sector reform and public diplomacy. While the NATO Membership
    Action Plan states that aspirants must demonstrate commitment to human rights and the rule of law,
    NATO lacks a clear mandate and the capacities to carry out comprehensive assessments of
    democratic progress in aspirant countries, let alone in its own member states. Political dialogue
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    18
    within the framework of the NATO partnership policy has mainly focused on practical cooperation in
    a military context.
    95. However, the General Rapporteur is convinced that democratic governance, the rule of law
    and human rights should be more prioritised in the Alliance’s partnership strategy. Similarly, an open
    discussion on ways of promoting the liberal democratic world order within and outside the Alliance
    should become a legitimate subject of NATO’s institutional agenda. As the then US State Secretary,
    John Kerry, said after the coup attempt in Turkey: “NATO also has a requirement with respect to
    democracy, and NATO will indeed measure very carefully what is happening” (Sloat, 2018).
    96. The EU, with its immense soft power and institutional and financial capacities, has far greater
    tools to promote reforms and democratic standards across the Black Sea, as it has previously done
    in Central and Eastern Europe. The EU’s Black Sea Synergy Initiative, launched back in 2007, needs
    to become more ambitious and better funded. The General Rapporteur supports the calls that the
    EU’s involvement and support be strictly conditional on partners’ progress in improving human rights,
    democracy and the rule of law. To improve the quality of reforms and to ensure their implementation,
    efforts to strengthen administrative capacities and culture as well as to involve civil society and the
    expert community in consultation processes should be prioritised. The activities of the Black Sea
    NGO Forum, a ”home grown” platform for debate, communication and cooperation among civil
    society representatives, governments and international organisations active in the wider Black Sea
    region, including on issues such as democracy and rule of law, deserve special attention and further
    support, since this platform also has a role to play in enhancing societal resilience across the region.
    European leaders should react swiftly and resolutely whenever concerns arise regarding the
    persecution of human rights activists, infringements on media freedom, selective justice, cases of
    torture, the oppression of national minorities, election fraud and other violations of human rights and
    liberties. There can be no excuses for delaying the adoption and implementation of rigorous
    anticorruption policies.
    97. Ultimately, the Black Sea states themselves need to do more to promote democratic standards
    across their region. Strengthening people-to-people contacts as well as regional organisations such
    as the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) is key to achieving durable reconciliation and
    stability in the region. The international community should continue to be united in calling on Russia
    to revisit its revisionist policies in the region and to end the violation of territorial integrity of Georgia,
    Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova. The General Rapporteur is also convinced that faster progress
    in introducing European standards of democracy and the rule of law by Georgia, Ukraine and the
    Republic of Moldova will serve as a powerful pull factor for the populations of their regions under de
    facto foreign control.
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    19
    SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY
    (For further information on sources, please contact the Committee Director)
    Aslund, A., Russia’s Neo-Feudal Capitalism, April 27, 2017, Retrieved from Project Syndicate:
    https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/russia-neofeudal-capitalism-putin-by-
    anders-aslund-2017-04?barrier=accessreg
    Boichenko, N., The far right's disproportionate influence, April 26, 2018, New Eastern Europe:
    http://neweasterneurope.eu/2018/04/26/far-rights-disproportionate-influence/
    Bucak, S., Dogan Media sale to Erdogan ally is blow to press freedom, May 30, 2018, Financial
    Times: https://www.ft.com/content/3273aafc-4317-11e8-97ce-ea0c2bf34a0b
    Butler, D. and Devranoglu, N., Turkish lira pulls back from recod low markets rattled, August 13,
    2018, Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-turkey-currency/turkish-lira-pulls-back-
    from-record-low-markets-rattled-idUSKBN1KY0B6
    Calus, K., Moldova’s political theatre. The balance of forces in an election year, January 31, 2018,
    Retrieved from Centre for Eastern Studies: https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-
    commentary/2018-01-31/moldovas-political-theatre-balance-forces-election-year
    European Commission, "Country Report Romania 2018", July 7, 2018
    https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/2018-european-semester-country-report-romania-
    en.pdf
    European Council, "Summer 2018 Economic Forecast - Romania", July 7, 2018
    https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-
    forecasts/economic-performance-country/romania/economic-forecast-romania_en
    European Parliament, "Association agreements between the EU and Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine-
    European Implementation Assessment", European Parliamentary Research Service, June
    2018
    European Parliament, DG for External Policies, Human rights in Ukraine and the EU response,
    January 2018, [EP/EXPO/B/DROI/FWC/2013-08/Lot8/14]
    Freedom House, Democracy in Crisis, January 2018, Freedom House:
    https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/freedom-world-2018
    Freedom House, Freedom in the World: Crimea* Profile, January 2018,
    https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/crimea
    Guler, F., Pitel, L. and Yackley A., Erdogan Claims Victory in Turkey Elections, June 25, 2018,
    Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/9ab2404e-7786-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d
    Harris, C., "Explained: the protests in Moldova that have got Brussels worried", Euronews, August
    28 2018 http://www.euronews.com/2018/08/28/explained-what-are-the-protests-in-moldova-
    all-about-
    Higgins, A., In Ukraine, Corruption Is Now Undermining The Military, February 19 , 2018, New York
    Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/19/world/europe/ukraine-corruption-
    military.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-
    heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
    Hopkins, V. and Peel, M. "Romania's chief anti-corruption prosecutor removed from office", Financial
    Times, July 9, 2018 https://www.ft.com/content/03cb2876-838e-11e8-a29d-73e3d454535d
    HRW, Ukraine: Events of 2017, January 17, 2018, Human Rights Watch: https://www.hrw.org/world-
    report/2018/country-chapters/ukraine
    Ilie, L., “Romanian parliament says would back reunification with Moldova”, Reuters, 27 March 2018
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-romania-moldova/romanian-parliament-says-would-
    back-reunification-with-moldova-idUSKBN1H32CS
    International Republican Institute, "Public Opinion Survey: Residents of Moldova May-June 2018",
    June 2018, http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2018-7-16_moldova_poll_presentation.pdf
    Kramer, A. E., Ukrainian Separatist Leader is Killed in Restaurant Bombing, August 31, 2018, New
    York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/31/world/europe/ukraine-separatists-
    bombing.html
    Kyiv Post, Almost a quarter of Ukrainians favour unification of Orthodox churches, April 29, 2018,
    https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/almost-quarter-ukrainians-favor-unification-
    orthodox-churches.html?cn-reloaded=1
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    20
    LGBT Human Rights Nash Mir Centre, On the Rise: LGBT Situation in Ukraine in 2017, 2018,
    https://gay.org.ua/publications/lgbt_ukraine_2017-e.pdf
    Lowen, M., Women challenge Turkey traditions for right to work, March 1, 2018, BBC:
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43197642
    Makovsky, A., Turkey’s Parliament: An Unlikely but Possible Counterweight to New Presidency,
    December 19, 2017, Center For American Progress:
    https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/reports/2017/12/19/444281/turkeys-
    parliament/
    Millier, C., Ukrainan Militia Behind Brutal Romany Attacks Getting State Funds, June 14, 2018,
    Radio Free Europe: Radio Liberty: https://www.rferl.org/a/ukrainian-militia-behind-brutal-
    romany-attacks-getting-state-funds/29290844.html
    Mufson, S., She fixed Ukraine’s economy -- and was run out of her job by death threats, May 6, 2017
    Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/she-fixed-ukraines-
    economy----and-was-run-out-of-her-job-by-death-threats/2017/05/05/2f556f40-2f90-11e7-
    8674-437ddb6e813e_story.html?utm_term=.95f2ea8cb161
    NDI, Statement of The NDI International Observation Mission to Georgia’s October 21, 2017 Local
    Government Elections, October 22, 2017, National Democratic Institute:
    http://civil.ge/files/files/2017/NDI%20Election%20Day%20Preliminary%20Statement%2020
    17_Final_Eng.pdf
    Necsutu, M., "Russia Pledges More Financial Aid to Transnistria", January 22, 2018
    http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/russia-to-give-financial-aid-to-transnistria-01-22-
    2018
    Necsutu, M., "Russian Military Games on Dniester Anger Moldova", August 15, 2018
    http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/russian-soldiers-forced-the-dniester-river-from-
    transnistria-08-15-2018
    Pitel, L., Turkish press baron agrees to sell media arm to Erdogan ally, March 21, 2018, Financial
    Times: https://www.ft.com/content/c4d3c3f0-2d2d-11e8-a34a-7e7563b0b0f4
    Popsoi, M., A Year in Review: Oligarchic Power Consolidation Defines Moldova’s Politics in 2017.
    Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/year-review-oligarchic-power-
    consolidation-defines-moldovas-politics-2017/
    Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, "Bulgaria To Replace Soviet MiG Jets With NATO Allies' Planes",
    June 9, 2018 https://www.rferl.org/a/bulgaria-replace-soviet-mig-29-figher-jets-nato-allies-
    planes-armoured-vehicles/29281002.html
    Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, 'More than 1,000 Detained' As Protests Mark Russian Regional,
    Local Elections, September 10, 2018, https://www.rferl.org/a/russians-vote-in-local-
    elections-as-police-detain-pension-reform-protesters/29479717.html
    Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, Crimean Tatar Activists' Family Members Detained, September 4,
    2018, https://www.rferl.org/a/crimean-tatar-activists-family-members-
    detained/29470312.html
    Rankin, J., Cloud of corruption hangs over Bulgaria as it takes up EU presidency, December 28,
    2017, The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/28/bulgaria-corruption-
    eu-presidency-far-right-minority-parties-concerns
    Rezaian, J.,Turkey’s Erdogan wants to make adultery a crime, February 28, 2018, The Washington
    Post:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/02/28/turkeys-erdogan-wants-
    to-make-adultery-a-crime/?utm_term=.3b827ca06c5f
    Roth, A., Russia blocks millions of IP addresses in battle against Telegram app, April 17, 2018, The
    Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/17/russia-blocks-millions-of-ip-
    addresses-in-battle-against-telegram-app
    Sasse, G., Ukraine’s Youth: Politically Disinterested and Low Trust in the EU, January 18, 2018,
    Carnegie Europe: http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/75372
    Satter, R., Ungodly espionage: Russian hackers targeted Orthodox clergy, August 28, 2018,
    Associated Press:
    https://www.apnews.com/26815e0d06d348f4b85350e96b78f6a8/Nothing-sacred:-Russian-
    spies-tried-hacking-Orthodox-clergy
    164 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    21
    Sloat, A., The West's Turkey Conundrum, February 2018, Brookings: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-
    content/uploads/2018/02/fp_20180212_west_turkey_conundrum.pdf
    Sturrock, A. and Summers, H., ‘They wanted to kill us’: masked neo-fascists strike fear into Ukraine's
    Roma, August 27, 2018, The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/global-
    development/2018/aug/27/they-wanted-to-kill-us-masked-neo-fascists-strike-fear-into-
    ukraines-roma
    TI Moldova, State Capture: The Case of the Republic of Moldova, June 2017,
    Transparency International Moldova: http://www.transparency.md/wp-
    content/uploads/2017/06/TI_Moldova_State_Capture.pdf
    UCMC, Public Integrity Council: Every fourth Supreme Court candidate is not virtuous,
    September 26, 2017, Ukraine Crisis Media Center: http://uacrisis.org/60785-public-integrity-
    council
    UNHCR, Situation of human rights in the temporarily occupied Autonomous Republic of Crimea and
    the city of Sevastopol (Ukraine), September 25, 2017, Office of the United Nations High
    Commissioner for Human Rights
    http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/UA/Crimea2014_2017_EN.pdf
    US Helsinki Commission, Human Rights and Democracy in Russia, September 20, 2017,
    US Helsinki Commission report:
    https://www.csce.gov/sites/helsinkicommission.house.gov/files/Report%20-
    %20Russia%20Human%20Rights%20and%20Democracy%20-%20Final.pdf
    Washington Post "Thousands in Moldova rally, call to reunite with Romania," September 1, 2018
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/thousands-in-moldova-rally-call-to-reunite-
    with-romania/2018/09/01/e72f49f2-ade2-11e8-9a7d-
    cd30504ff902_story.html?utm_term=.1041c72c3c26
    World Bank, Georgia Overview, Recent Economic Developments, April 17, 2018, The World Bank:
    https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/georgia/overview#3
    ______________________
    COMMITTEE ON THE CIVIL
    DIMENSION OF SECURITY
    (CDS)
    Sub-Committee on Democratic
    Governance (CDSDG)
    CIVIL PROTECTION IN THE
    HIGH NORTH AND THE
    MEDITERRANEAN
    Report
    by Jane CORDY (Canada)
    Rapporteur
    165 CDSDG 18 E rev.1 fin | Original: English | 18 November 2018
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    I. INTRODUCTION – NATO AND CIVIL PROTECTION .......................................................1
    II. CIVIL PROTECTION AND EMERGENCY RESPONSE IN THE HIGH NORTH.................2
    A. THE CHANGING ARCTIC ........................................................................................2
    B. SAR AND EMERGENCY RESPONSE IN THE HIGH NORTH: CHALLENGES
    AND CAPABILITIES .................................................................................................3
    C. MULTILATERAL COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORKS IN THE HIGH NORTH ..............7
    III. ADDRESSING THE HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN ....................10
    A. THE MEDITERRANEAN: THE WORLD’S MOST LETHAL SEA ROUTE FOR
    MIGRANTS AND REFUGEES................................................................................10
    B. SAR CAPABILITIES IN THE MEDITERRANEAN ...................................................11
    C. AUGMENTED SAR CAPABILITIES – LIFESAVING OR
    COUNTERPRODUCTIVE?.....................................................................................15
    D. POST-RESCUE CONDITIONS...............................................................................15
    IV. CONCLUSIONS ..............................................................................................................16
    BIBLIOGRAPHY..............................................................................................................18
    165 CDSDG 18 E rev. 1 fin
    1
    I. INTRODUCTION – NATO AND CIVIL PROTECTION
    1. NATO’s involvement in civil protection, namely policies for the protection of civilian populations
    against disasters and other emergencies, dates back to the 1950s, with the establishment of NATO’s
    Civil Emergency Planning Committee. While not a central task for the Alliance, civil protection
    occupies an important place in NATO’s comprehensive approach to security. Over the years, NATO
    has developed ways of assisting member nations in preparing for and responding to natural and
    man-made disasters as well as addressing the civil effects of terrorism and of the use of WMDs.
    Contribution to civil protection has become an important element of the Alliance’s “soft power”,
    particularly in relations with NATO partners.
    2. The end of the Cold War and NATO’s increased focus on out-of-area operations allowed the
    Alliance to place a stronger emphasis on civil protection policies, especially with regard to disaster
    response. In 1998, following a Russian proposal to the North Atlantic Cooperation Council (later the
    EAPC), NATO established the Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Centre (EADRCC) to
    coordinate disaster relief efforts among NATO and partner countries, and in countries where NATO
    is engaged in military operations. The Centre is active year-round and operates on a 24/7 basis. It
    involves NATO’s 29 Allies and all partner countries. Since 2000, the EADRCC has conducted, on
    average, one large consequence-management field exercise every year.
    3. However, the EADRCC is only used if called upon, and its role is restricted to coordination
    rather than operational management. In emergency response, member states as well as relevant
    international organizations, particularly the United Nations, play a primary role, while NATO’s role is
    subsidiary. Military assets, such as NATO’s Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS), the
    NATO Response Force (NRF) and the Multinational Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear
    (CBRN) Defense Battalion have also been engaged in some civil emergencies. The most prominent
    cases of NATO involvement in disaster response include the responses to Hurricane Katrina in the
    United States in August 2005 and to the earthquake in Kashmir, Pakistan, in October 2005. It is also
    worth recalling the EADRCC’s role in coordinating the multinational humanitarian assistance effort
    that supported refugees during the Kosovo war in the late 1990s.
    4. In search and rescue (SAR), NATO holds annual Dynamic Mercy exercises that alternate
    between the Atlantic Ocean and the Baltic Sea. The exercise aims to develop inter-regional
    cooperation and coordination between the civilian and military SAR units of Allied and partner
    nations. This coordination is crucial for rescuing lives at sea. NATO is also engaged in developing
    capabilities for rescuing submarine sailors. It regularly conducts submarine escape and rescue
    (SMER) exercises to improve multinational submarine rescue cooperation and interoperability. The
    latest SMER exercise–Dynamic Monarch–took place in 2017 in the eastern Mediterranean and
    focused on saving lives rather than warfighting. Allies, including the United Kingdom, France and
    Norway, also launched the NATO Submarine Rescue System (NSRS), which consists of
    jointly-owned submarine rescue platforms1
    .
    5. The NATO Parliamentary Assembly's (NATO PA) Committee on the Civil Dimension of
    Security (CDS) has developed a strong focus on civil protection. In 2006, it adopted a comprehensive
    report on this topic, analyzing the complex network of policies and instruments that give NATO a role
    in civil emergencies. However, several new challenges have since emerged, including the changing
    geopolitical environment on NATO’s eastern, southern and northern flanks.
    1 The NSRS consists of two sub-systems that can be mobilized independently of each other 1) the
    Intervention Remotely Operated Vehicle (IROV) that can be rapidly mobilized to a distressed submarine
    in order to provide life support and prepare the site for 2) the Rescue System, which consists of a
    free-swimming manned submersible, a Portable Launch and Recovery System, a decompression
    system and other associated support equipment. The NSRS can be deployed anywhere in the world
    and is designed to maximize the use of any potential aircraft and ship. -
    https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/The-Fleet/Submarines/~/media/Files/Navy-PDFs/The-Fleet/Fighting-
    Units/Submarines/NSRS%20Factsheet.pdf
    165 CDSDG 18 E rev. 1 fin
    2
    6. This report will focus on two regions where the issue of civil protection has become particularly
    acute in recent years: the High North and the Mediterranean. While very different, these regions
    present equally daunting challenges for civil protection. Due to climate change, technological
    advances and renewed competition between Allies and Russia, there is growing civilian, economic
    and military activity in the High North. These factors, in turn, complicate efforts to protect civilians,
    the environment and infrastructure – efforts that are already made difficult by the sheer size of the
    High North, the harsh climate and the lack of infrastructure.
    7. The Mediterranean faces a different type of civil protection challenge: the refugee/migrant
    crisis prompted by turbulence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The shocking
    losses of life at sea have tested the conscience of the world and particularly the Euro-Atlantic
    community.
    8. This report will provide further assessment of these challenges, take stock of the existing civil
    protection – primarily SAR – capabilities in these regions and discuss ways of improving the
    multilateral responses to these challenges, including NATO’s potential role.
    II. CIVIL PROTECTION AND EMERGENCY RESPONSE IN THE HIGH NORTH
    A. THE CHANGING ARCTIC
    9. The Arctic region2
    is experiencing rapid transformation due to climate change. In the last
    70 years, the Arctic amplification effect has caused the Artic to warm up twice as fast as other parts
    of the world. Since 1979, the Arctic ice cap has shrunk about 13% per decade, and the trend is
    accelerating3
    . Meanwhile, the thickness of Arctic ice declined by 65% between 1975 and 2012.
    January 2016 was 5°C warmer than the 1981-2010 average for the region. If current trends continue,
    experts estimate that the Arctic will be ice-free during the summer months by 2040. Sea ice is
    becoming less thick and more likely to break apart causing more mobility. This increased mobility
    may lead to more ice-related hazards. The thawing permafrost is also releasing carbon dioxide and
    methane into the atmosphere, thus exacerbating the greenhouse effect4
    . Thawing permafrost also
    causes extensive damage to highways, railroads, airstrips, and other infrastructure. Furthermore,
    Arctic ecosystems face significant stress and disruption. Even if the Paris Agreement succeeds in
    keeping the rise of the Earth’s temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, winters in the
    Arctic are still expected to be warmer by 5-9°C compared to the period between 1986 and 2005 (The
    Economist, 2017).
    10. These warming trends as well as technological advances make the Arctic more accessible for
    longer periods of the year, offering new opportunities for human activity in the region. New strategic
    shipping routes are gradually opening in the north, namely the Northern Sea Route (NSR) along
    the Russian and Norwegian coasts and the Northwest Passage (NWP) consisting of several routes
    through the Canadian archipelago and along Alaska’s northern shoreline. The NSR holds particular
    economic interest. While Russia has introduced high tariffs for transit, the NWP has no fee system
    (Melia, Haines, & Hawkins, 2017). It also cuts the length of usual routes between east Asia and
    western Europe by about a third. Recognizing growing interest in this route, Russia has also
    developed a series of urban centers along the NSR. As the Arctic ice cap shrinks, the Transpolar
    2 In this report, Arctic is used interchangeably with High North, which is defined as the area north of the
    Arctic Circle (66°33´N).
    3 The acceleration is attributed to the feedback loop: as the ice cap shrinks, less sunlight is reflected and
    more of it is absorbed by the water. Warmer ocean water further melts the ice from beneath.
    4 According to Arctic Council’s Arctic Management and Assessment Programme, near-surface permafrost
    has warmed by more than 0.5°C since 2007-2009 and, by mid-century, the area of near-surface
    permafrost is expected to decrease by 35%. It is estimated that Artic soils hold about 50% of the world’s
    soil carbon. While thawing permafrost is expected to contribute significantly to global warming, the
    amount of greenhouse gas released so far has been relatively small.
    165 CDSDG 18 E rev. 1 fin
    3
    Sea Route (TSR) in the central Arctic Ocean may become a third and even more attractive option
    than the NWP and NSR.
    11. There were 71 transits through the NSR in 2013, up from just four in 2010 (transit numbers
    dropped to 19 again in 2016, likely due to renewed tensions between Russia and the West).
    Thirty-three vessels crossed the NWP in 2017, up from just five in 2007, including, for the second
    time, the Crystal Serenity, a cruise ship with more than 1,400 passengers and crew on board
    (Headland, 2017).
    12. The Arctic’s wealth of natural resources has also attracted commercial interest. The
    US Geological Survey estimates that the region has extensive reserves of up to 90 billion barrels of
    oil and 1,699 trillion ft3
    of natural gas. While the US and Canadian governments have banned
    offshore drilling in the Arctic5
    , Russia’s national oil and gas companies, Rosneft and Gazprom, are
    expanding their operations and Norwegian authorities have started to issue hydrocarbon exploration
    licenses. Some observers predict that some USD 100 billion will be invested in non-renewable
    natural resources and infrastructure construction in the region within the next decade (Geiselhart,
    2014).
    13. Despite the ban on drilling, Canada and the United States have joined Russia in extracting
    other natural resources in the North, such as zinc, iron ore and nickel. There is also a discussion in
    Greenland on whether or not to mine its vast uranium resources using investments from Australia
    and China. The warming waters also offer new opportunities for fishing certain species, such as cod,
    in the North.
    14. That said, the potential for shorter transportation routes and natural resource extraction should
    not be overstated. The extent of ice coverage is still largely unpredictable, preventing shipping
    companies from using Arctic sea routes for regular services. Additionally, interest in natural resource
    extraction in the Arctic has diminished substantively due to falling global oil prices and the effect of
    Western sanctions on Russian companies6
    (Zysk & Titley, 2015). For the time being, commercial
    activity in the region is likely to grow only modestly.
    B. SAR AND EMERGENCY RESPONSE IN THE HIGH NORTH: CHALLENGES AND
    CAPABILITIES
    15. As human activity in the High North increases, so does the probability of incidents requiring
    SAR operations. Vessels and offshore oil and gas platforms create the potential for accidents,
    including colliding with ice or catching fire. These incidents can severely threaten not only the
    environment but human life as well. In terms of shipping casualties, 55 incidents were recorded in
    2016, up from just eight incidents in 2006. Particularly worrisome is the increasing presence of large
    cruise ships carrying over 1,000 passengers. An emergency evacuation of a cruise ship of this size
    would require a mass rescue operation (MRO), an endeavor that no Arctic country could currently
    manage on its own. On a smaller scale, helicopters, small private aircraft, and adventure tourists on
    skis and private boats constitute another growing risk group for emergencies (Ikonen, 2017).
    16. Emergency management in the Arctic is a complex and risky endeavor because of turbulent
    weather, uncertain ice conditions, vast distances, and environmental concerns. The Arctic spans
    14.5 million km2
    , which is larger than the European continent (10 million km2
    ), and has a population
    of about 4 million people. Average winter temperatures are as low as -34ºC. The harsh environment
    makes it difficult to operate aircraft and helicopters while ships face the problem of icing, which can
    5 According to a recent report, President Donald Trump seems to be re-evaluating this ban.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/04/trump-aims-to-open-arctic-pacific-and-atlantic-to-offshore-drilling-in-
    ambitious-new-plan.html
    6 Due to Western sanctions, transit traffic via the NSR has dropped from 1.18 million tons in 2013 to a
    mere 39,000 tons in 2015. https://jamestown.org/program/russian-military-build-up-in-arctic-highlights-
    kremlins-militarized-mindset/
    165 CDSDG 18 E rev. 1 fin
    4
    lead to the failure of some ship functions. Collisions with icebergs could also create emergency
    situations, including the abandonment of the ship. During the long Arctic winters, extended periods
    of 24-hour darkness and restricted visibility due to weather further complicate navigation. Due to the
    sparseness of the population, infrastructure – such as ports, landing strips and hospitals – is lacking
    (Steinicke & Albrecht, 2012). These factors can only be mitigated to a very limited extent.
    17. In smaller emergencies, authorities in the High North can largely rely on local responders and
    volunteer resources. However, as activity in the region increases in frequency and scale, advanced
    SAR capabilities that can handle emergencies of a larger scale and of higher complexity are needed.
    Responsible emergency-preparedness authorities must extend their seasonal presence (usually
    limited to the summer months) as well as their overall capabilities, situational awareness and
    cross-border cooperation. Responsibility for emergency preparedness in the High North is distributed
    across different national authorities, with the leading SAR authorities being either civilian, such as
    the Icelandic Coast Guard, or military, such as the Danish Navy.
    18. In some nations, such as Canada, search and rescue is a shared responsibility. Due to the
    country’s immense size, range of terrain and unpredictable weather, many partners and jurisdictions
    are involved in Canada’s National Search and Rescue Program, including the civilian Canadian
    Coast Guard for maritime SAR, the Royal Canadian Air Force for aeronautical SAR, as well as
    provincial and territorial authorities. In the remote North, the Canadian Rangers – a roughly
    5,000-strong reserve force from over 200 different northern communities – can also assist in ground
    search and rescue efforts. Often referred to as the military’s “eyes and ears in the North”, many
    Canadian Rangers are indigenous and bring highly valuable local knowledge to ground search and
    rescue operations in isolated areas.
    19. The Arctic’s vast expanse and limited infrastructure make helicopter airlifts extremely difficult.
    Investing in new helicopter bases is difficult to justify considering the still limited amount of shipping
    in the region. At this time, other means of rescue are very time intensive, with little ability to rescue
    large numbers of survivors. Icebreakers are especially important to SAR operations. Experts,
    however, are concerned about the “icebreaker gap” of the littoral Arctic states, which have small and
    ageing fleets. The US fleet consists of only two operational icebreakers (CRS, 2018). A new
    icebreaker is planned but limited activity in the region might not justify the costs of USD 1 billion per
    ship (Fountain, 2017). Canada’s Coast Guard has 15 icebreakers, including two heavy icebreakers,
    but they are reaching the end of their design life. Canada is exploring various options to replace its
    icebreakers. In June 2018, the Government of Canada announced that it would be acquiring three
    converted medium commercial icebreakers to support interim icebreaking capability. Nevertheless,
    increasing demand for icebreaker service support is leaving the fleet stretched (LeBlanc – Senate of
    Canada, 2018). Russia is the only country to possess robust icebreaker capabilities with over
    40-icebreakers, including six heavy polar, nuclear-powered vessels (Charron, 2017).
    20. Because communications satellites do not fully cover the Arctic region, communication
    technology in the High North is limited. Building infrastructure for broadband technology is
    complicated by short construction seasons and difficult maintenance conditions. Since 1999, large
    ships have been equipped with communications, warning and alert systems within the Global
    Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS), mainly using the COSPAS-SARSAT7
    satellite
    program established in 1979 by Canada, France, the former USSR and the United States. However,
    due to the gap in satellite coverage, distress alerts can only be detected globally up to about
    70-75º north (Steinicke & Albrecht, 2012). SAR officers place high hopes in the new
    Medium Earth Orbit Search and Rescue (MEOSAR) system, which will become the dominant
    space-segment capability of the COSPAS-SARSAT program. MEOSAR satellites will pick up the
    distress signals in near real time with more accuracy than the current system, which can take up to
    two hours.
    7 COSPAS (К С АС) is an acronym for Space System for the Search of Vessels in Distress in Russian,
    while SARSAT is an acronym for Search and Rescue Satellite-Aided Tracking.
    165 CDSDG 18 E rev. 1 fin
    5
    21. Communication between different SAR stakeholders is another cause for concern. All Arctic
    states have their own vessel and air-traffic services with different reporting systems (Ikonen, 2017).
    Information on military units, which are often the most readily available resources for SAR
    operations, might be considered sensitive by military authorities, further complicating cross-border
    cooperation. Moreover, language barriers continue to obstruct communication (Sydnes et al., 2017).
    22. Norway stands out among the Arctic nations in terms of developing adequate SAR capabilities
    in the High North. In May 2018, members of the NATO PA Sub-Committee on Democratic
    Governance (CDSDG) visited Bodo, Norway, which hosts the Joint Rescue Coordination Center
    North Norway (JRCC NN). Bent-Ove Jamtli, Director of JRCC NN, told the delegation that Norwegian
    SAR services are coordinated by two JRCCs – one in Sola (for southern Norway) and one in Bodo
    (for northern Norway). SAR services are performed through a cooperative effort involving
    governmental agencies, voluntary organizations and private companies. All relevant state and
    municipal institutions and services are obliged to participate with all available resources if asked by
    JRCC. The Center had to deal with about 3,000 incidents in 2017, most of them in the sea, and this
    number increases each year. Norway’s 12 aging Sea King SAR helicopters will be replaced by
    16 new AW-101 helicopters by 2020 with an expanded radius of operation. Norway’s SAR
    capabilities also include a number of other important assets, such as NH-90 naval helicopters, the
    CGV Svalbard icebreaker and the M/S Polarsyssel expedition and research vessel. JRCC NN
    cooperates closely with Norway’s armed forces, for instance, by occasionally requesting the
    assistance of the F-16 fighters from NATO Quick Reaction Alert air base in Bodo. Voluntary
    organizations – such as Norwegian alpine or glacier rescue teams – are instrumental to the success
    of Norway’s SAR operations. One must also note a good level of cooperation between Norwegian
    and Russian SAR services in protecting human lives and infrastructure in the framework of the
    Barents Agreement.
    23. Finland and Sweden also have adequate SAR capabilities in their part of the High North,
    however they do not have access to the Arctic Ocean. Therefore, their area of responsibility is less
    challenging. In Finland, responsible authorities for SAR in the High North are the Finnish Border
    Guard and the Air Navigation Services Finland. Additional authorities and organizations also get
    involved in SAR operations, such as the Emergency Response Service Administration, the Finnish
    Armed Forces, the Vessel Traffic Service, with involvement also of the police and custom authorities.
    The Finnish Border Guard conducts joint exercises with the Swedish Coast Guard. In Sweden, the
    Swedish Maritime Administration (SMA) is responsible for maritime and aeronautical SAR in the
    Arctic (Ikonen, 2017). According to SMA, its helicopter unit is “fully dedicated to nation-wide airborne
    search and rescue services”. The large fleet of AgustaWestland AW139 helicopters is stationed in
    five stations: Umea, Stockholm, Visby, Gothenburg and Ronneby. Other actors involved in SAR
    operations in the Arctic include fire brigades and the Swedish Coast Guard, a civilian authority
    supervising rescues and providing assistance at sea 24 hours a day, 365 days a year along the
    entire Swedish coastline.
    24. The United States keeps most of its SAR assets in southern Alaska, but during summer
    months the US Coast Guard (USCG) also opens Forward Operating Bases in more remote locations
    to support economic activities there. In terms of air assets, the USCG mostly relies on helicopters
    based primarily out of Kodiak Air Station, which stand alert and ready to respond. However, these
    helicopters do not have refueling or de-icing capabilities, which limits their scope of intervention.
    Often this leads to dependency on the Alaska Air National Guard’s combat SAR squadrons for cases
    beyond 300 miles. In terms of maritime assets, the USCG’s fleet of ships provides platforms,
    capabilities and resources for marine vessels in distress and for SAR operations in the most remote
    areas. Vessels are of great value in SAR missions but “response times for cutters in the Arctic are
    slow” (Smith, 2017). Other partner organizations can also be requested to assist in SAR missions,
    especially above the Arctic Circle where the USCG and the United States Air Force (USAF) do not
    have a permanent presence. These include the North Slope Borough Search and Rescue – primarily
    responsible for “provid[ing] SAR services for the Alaskan Natives that live within the Borough” – and
    the North Slope commercial operators. Despite the limited capabilities of these organizations, their
    165 CDSDG 18 E rev. 1 fin
    6
    presence in the North Slope enables quick response times and their regional expertise is crucial in
    this dangerous area. However, maintenance issues and the lack of infrastructure on the North Slope
    often makes it difficult to conduct SAR operations, for aircraft as well as for marine vessels. Practical
    collaboration between the different actors involved is also a challenge.
    25. Iceland’s Coast Guard operates three vessels, several rescue helicopters and one maritime
    surveillance aircraft, which can operate from short airfields. Inside the country, there are about
    100 SAR teams, consisting of volunteers, that focus mostly on assisting the rapidly growing number
    of tourists. Since 1985, Iceland operates the Maritime Safety and Survival Training Centre which
    provides safety and survival training for seamen. According to national law, it is mandatory for all
    seamen to attend courses there. Nevertheless, a nation the size of Iceland requires international
    support in major emergencies.
    26. Canada and Denmark (Greenland) face the greatest SAR challenges due to the vastness of
    their area of responsibility compared with the size of the population. Until recently, experts assessed
    that Canada had only limited infrastructure in its northern territories and that “any attempt to mount
    even a small-scale operation would be difficult” as Canada’s most substantial SAR facilities are
    located thousands of kilometers away in the south (Steinicke & Albrecht, 2012). However, the current
    government of Canada has taken important steps to improve the situation. In November 2017,
    Ottawa launched the USD 1.5 billion Oceans Protection Plan, which, in addition to setting
    environmental goals, envisages the provision of new capabilities to the Canadian Coast Guard to
    effectively respond to safety incidents. The Department of National Defence and the Canadian
    Armed Forces also announced a new policy entitled “Strong, Secure, Engaged” that calls on a
    military spending increase of 70% over the next decade. Much of this funding aims to improve SAR
    capabilities and surveillance in the Arctic. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to develop
    and put into polar orbit a new generation of radar satellites, known as the RADARSAT Constellation,
    that will enable Canadian forces to see through clouds at night to track vessels.
    27. Greenland, the world’s largest island, has a population of just over 50,000. SAR platforms are
    limited to one helicopter operated by Air Greenland. This helicopter is equipped with hoists, so it can
    rescue persons in distress from ships and water, including fishermen stranded on drifting ice floes.
    Greenland applies a whole-of-society approach to SAR, involving traditional local fishermen and
    hunters, recreational boats and hikers. The Danish Arctic Command supports local efforts by
    stationing one Arctic patrol frigate with an on-board helicopter and two Arctic patrol vessels in
    summer; it only provides one ship in winter. Experts note that, in the case of a mass rescue operation,
    local resources would be overwhelmed, while remote locations would hinder a swift arrival of
    international assistance (Steinicke & Albrecht, 2012). In October 2013, the Danish state auditing
    agency, Rigsrevisionen, concluded that the Danish forces received insufficient funds and equipment
    to fulfil their Arctic tasks, including SAR and environmental protection (Wezeman, 2016). The
    Danish Navy is advising cruise ships to sail in pairs in Greenland waters in order to have the
    necessary capacity to house hundreds of people in the event of an emergency.
    28. Russia is the source of both problems and opportunities for civil protection in the High North.
    As noted, Russia has the most developed infrastructure in the region, due to both the economic8
    and
    the military significance that Moscow attaches to the Arctic. As part of a wider military modernization
    program, Russia has engaged in a large-scale military build-up in the High North. In December 2014,
    Moscow announced the creation of a North Unified Strategic Command based in Murmansk. Russia
    also established or reopened six military facilities and deployed additional troops in the region. In
    2017, President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev visited the modern
    14,000 m2
    base in the Franz Josef archipelago, thus reaffirming Russia’s foothold in the Arctic.
    Furthermore, the Russian Northern Fleet enhanced its capabilities and increased the number as well
    as the scale of its exercises in Arctic waters.
    8 According to the Council on Foreign Relations, 20% of Russia’s GDP, including 95% of its natural gas
    and 75% of its oil, come from its Arctic region.
    165 CDSDG 18 E rev. 1 fin
    7
    29. Russia has an extensive network of urban centers and infrastructure along its vast Arctic coast
    to harvest Arctic mineral resources and provide services to the NSR. In 2015, the Russian
    government released its Integrated Development Plan for the Northern Sea Route 2015-2030. The
    plan stresses the importance of providing safer and more reliable navigation on the NSR as well as
    the strategic importance of the NSR for Russian national security. Russia has five SAR centers along
    the NSR, manned by some 280 personnel, and the country is building another four (LeBlanc, 2018).
    Military assets provide an additional SAR cover for the NSR.
    30. However, Russia’s assets in the region are outdated and in critical condition. The country lacks
    adequate backup infrastructure, such as repair docks, fueling stations, communication systems and
    rescue hubs (Dushkova et al., 2017).
    31. This brief overview of SAR capabilities in the High North suggests that these capabilities are
    in short supply and unevenly distributed. Multilateral cooperation is therefore a vital precondition to
    having adequate civil protection in the area.
    C. MULTILATERAL COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORKS IN THE HIGH NORTH
    32. Arctic governance is a patchwork of national laws, bilateral treaties and international
    agreements. Apart from national regulations9
    , the most relevant international conventions applied
    in the Arctic include the 1974 International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS), the
    1979 International Convention on Maritime Search and Rescue (SAR Convention), the 1982 United
    Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)10
    and the 2014 International Code for Ships
    Operating in Polar Waters (Polar Code).
    33. The Polar Code, which came into effect on 1 January 2017, is a major advance in providing
    guidelines for Arctic shipping. It establishes safety requirements for ships navigating Arctic waters
    and advances environmental protection by banning all discharge of waste. The Code is mandatory,
    but its enforcement depends on the member states and it is mute on penalties for noncompliance.
    Discussions about whether and how to extend the Polar Code are underway at the International
    Maritime Organization.
    34. In terms of regional cooperation, the Arctic Council stands out as the key organization
    that involves the governments of Canada, Denmark (through Greenland), Finland, Iceland, Norway,
    Russia, Sweden, the United States as well as six representatives of indigenous populations. Several
    countries are recognized as observers, including NATO members France, Germany, Italy, the
    Netherlands, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom. Founded in 1996, the Arctic Council has
    evolved into a regional organization that provides joint analysis on Arctic issues, including SAR, and
    facilitates legally binding intergovernmental agreements. In 2013, the Arctic Council’s first permanent
    secretariat was set up in Tromso, Norway. Recognizing the Arctic’s global relevance, observer status
    was extended to countries as far away as China and India. Government officials of the member
    states meet twice a year, while ministerial summits are held every two years. In May 2018, the
    Arctic Council launched a best practice web portal, designed to raise awareness of the provisions of
    the Polar Code and to facilitate the exchange of information and best practices among all those
    involved in or potentially affected by Arctic marine operations.
    35. Pan-regional cooperation on SAR was not possible until after the end of the Cold War, when,
    in 1993, Russia, the United States and Canada held the first Arctic Search and Rescue Exercise
    (SAREX) in Siberia to improve SAR interoperability between these countries. Since then, SAREX
    9 Unlike its polar counterpart in the south, the Arctic is divided by the national jurisdictions of the eight
    High North states, Canada, Denmark (Greenland), Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the
    United States.
    10 The United States is not an official party to UNCLOS but has engaged in the Arctic according to its
    standards.
    165 CDSDG 18 E rev. 1 fin
    8
    and other bilateral and multilateral SAR exercises, such as the 2016 Arctic Chinook exercise, which
    simulated a MRO from a 200-passenger cruise ship in Alaska, are held regularly.
    36. The Arctic Council’s major achievement is the signing of the Agreement on Cooperation on
    Aeronautical and Maritime Search and Rescue in the Arctic in 2011. Also known as the Arctic SAR
    Agreement, it is the organization’s first legally binding document and obligates signatories to delimit
    zones of responsibility for SAR11
    . The eight nations agreed to set up an aeronautical and maritime
    rescue coordination center (RCC) under one command and to bear the costs of SAR capabilities in
    their area of responsibility. The agreement encourages all parties to cooperate by sharing
    information and infrastructure and participating in joint exercises and research initiatives, as well as
    through regular scheduling of reciprocal visits by SAR experts. Notably, the Agreement allows
    non-Arctic states to be included in the conduct of SAR operations. In 2011, Canada hosted the first
    SAR tabletop exercise in the framework of this Agreement.
    37. While it may be too early to assess the effectiveness of the Arctic SAR Agreement, some
    experts note that the delimitation of zones of national responsibility is not a silver bullet. The lesson
    learned from the 2013 SAREX exercise is that any mass rescue operation would necessarily be
    international, as no one nation has enough resources to conduct such an operation alone (House of
    Lords, 2015).
    38. In addition to the Arctic SAR Agreement, the Arctic Council’s second major accomplishment is
    the 2013 Agreement on Marine Oil Pollution Preparedness and Response in the Arctic (MOSPA).
    The agreement commits signatories to monitor for oil spills within their national jurisdictions, have
    appropriate equipment and contingency plans to respond to spills in a timely and effective manner,
    notify all affected parties in case of a transboundary oil spill and provide mutual assistance if an
    incident exceeds a signatory’s capacities. Since the Agreement came into force in 2013, three joint
    exercises have been conducted under MOSPA.
    11 It is important to note that, according to the Agreement, “the delimitation of search and rescue regions
    is not related to and shall not prejudice the delimitation of any boundary between states or their
    sovereignty, sovereign rights or jurisdiction.”
    165 CDSDG 18 E rev. 1 fin
    9
    39. Norway experienced devastating oil rig accidents in 1977 and 198012
    , and hence revisited its
    policies to emphasize safety and environmental standards and to shift to a risk-based, proactive
    regime with working legal requirements. Russia, on the other hand, is seen by its Arctic neighbors
    as the most expansive actor in offshore oil and gas production and as the one with the least
    regulatory clarity. An oil spill in the Arctic would be particularly damaging given the fragility of the
    region’s ecosystem. Therefore, as Canadian scholar Michael Byers put it, “more cooperation is
    needed, and quickly, on regional standards for oil spill prevention” (Bouffard, 2017).
    40. Other relevant regional frameworks include:
    1) The Arctic Council’s working group on Emergency Prevention, Preparedness and
    Response (EPPR). The EPPR identifies gaps, collects information, develops strategies
    and facilitates coordination among national emergency preparedness authorities. Since
    2015 the group’s mandate explicitly includes SAR issues.
    2) The Arctic Coast Guard Forum, which was established in 2015. This forum is held
    twice a year to foster multilateral cooperation in maritime SAR. Although officially
    independent from the Arctic Council, it brings together coast guard officers from the
    Arctic Council member states. Designed to coordinate the pooling of information and
    resources and the sharing of best practices, the forum held its first joint SAR exercise in
    Iceland in September 2017.
    3) SAR issues are also discussed in regular meetings of defense officials in the framework
    of the Arctic Security Forces Roundtable. Russia has not attended these meetings
    since its relations with the West soured in 2014. Russia’s involvement in the activities of
    the Arctic Council remains unaffected, however.
    4) Cooperation in the Barents Sea is promoted by the Barents Euro-Arctic Council -
    composed of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the European
    Commission. One of its working groups deals with SAR issues. The group has developed
    an operational tool, the Barents Joint Rescue Manual, and organizes regular joint
    Barents Rescue exercises.
    5) In 2011, Canada, Norway and Russia installed a common regional broadcast system for
    navigational and meteorological warnings.
    41. While four out of five Arctic littoral states and five out of eight Arctic Council members are
    NATO Allies, NATO’s involvement in the Arctic, including in the SAR domain, is limited and ad hoc.
    In 1996, in the framework of the Partnership for Peace Programme, NATO sponsored a SAREX
    exercise involving military units from Russia, Canada and the United States that focused on common
    SAR procedures and the delivery of humanitarian assistance (Steinicke & Albrecht, 2012). NATO’s
    regular Cold Response exercises focus on improving warfighting skills in Arctic conditions, yet the
    exercises also involve the local populations and civil authorities, including environmental officers.
    NATO’s Allied Command Transformation also conducts science and technology investigations in the
    region using unmanned underwater vehicles and a research vessel to study the predictability of
    ocean and acoustic environments. As noted, NATO conducts annual Dynamic Mercy exercises in
    regions adjacent to the High North, the Atlantic Ocean and the Baltic Sea.
    42. NATO currently has no official mandate or presence in the Arctic and views within NATO differ
    on whether there should be explicit Arctic involvement. For years, the overt involvement of NATO in
    the Arctic has not been a preferred option for some Allies. Canada, for example, has often
    characterized the Arctic as a zone of cooperation – not confrontation. While Canada’s new defense
    policy “Strong, Secure, Engaged” suggests that Canada will “[c]onduct joint exercises with Arctic
    allies and partners and support the strengthening of situational awareness and information sharing
    in the Arctic, including with NATO”, its position continues to prioritize peaceful and cooperative
    approaches to Arctic concerns over militarization.
    12 The 1980 incident resulted in the deaths of 123 out of the 212 people who were present on the collapsed
    rig.
    165 CDSDG 18 E rev. 1 fin
    10
    43. At the 2017 Halifax International Security Forum, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg
    presented the Alliance’s plans to create an Atlantic Command covering the Arctic, an initiative
    broadly supported by Allies, including the five High North NATO members. In June 2018, Allied
    defense ministers agreed to establish the Atlantic Joint Force Command (JFC) to be hosted by the
    United States in Norfolk, Virginia. The new Command will ensure that NATO can successfully
    conduct operations in the northern Atlantic.
    III. ADDRESSING THE HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN
    A. THE MEDITERRANEAN: THE WORLD’S MOST LETHAL SEA ROUTE FOR
    MIGRANTS AND REFUGEES
    44. Unlike the Arctic, the Mediterranean Sea is one of the world centers of maritime activity. The
    high level of marine traffic naturally entails the risk of accidents that require SAR operations. Most
    vulnerable are the refugees and migrants who embark on perilous sea journeys in search of a better
    and safer life in Europe. While migratory flows across the Mediterranean are not new, they have
    gained particular momentum in the past five years, triggered by the outbreak or deterioration of
    conflicts on Europe’s southern flank.
    45. In 2015, Europe experienced the largest influx of refugees and migrants since World War II,
    with more than 1 million arrivals via the Mediterranean, resulting in a humanitarian and political crisis.
    While the number of sea arrivals has significantly decreased since then, the Mediterranean remains
    the deadliest migratory sea route in the world. For 2017, the United Nations High Commissioner for
    Refugees (UNHCR) counted 172,301 migrant arrivals in Europe by sea and another 3,139 that died
    or disappeared before reaching the shore. According to the International Organization for Migration
    (IOM), crossing the Mediterranean has claimed about 15,000 lives since October 2013 when the
    crisis first made headlines. These figures are shockingly high, and, in all likelihood, the total number
    of actual arrivals and fatalities is much higher.
    46. Irregular migration via the Mediterranean takes place along three main routes: the Eastern
    Mediterranean route from Turkey to Greece; the Central Mediterranean route from Libya to Italy; and
    the Western Mediterranean route, mainly from Morocco to Spain. The routes vary significantly in
    terms of the number of sea crossings and the composition of nationalities among sea arrivals, as
    well as in length and lethality.
    47. At the outset of the crisis, most arrivals from conflict-ridden countries in the Middle East came
    via the Eastern Mediterranean route. About 885,000 of the roughly 1 million sea arrivals to the EU
    in 2015 were registered on Greek islands. In terms of country of origin, the largest group was Syrians,
    followed by Afghans and Somalis. Although the journey is relatively short, with some Greek islands
    situated just a few kilometers off the Turkish coast, at least 804 migrants lost their lives along the
    Eastern Mediterranean route that year (IOM, 2018).
    48. The 2016 EU-Turkey Agreement has caused the surge in sea crossings along the Eastern
    Mediterranean route to ebb as abruptly as it had started. According to the Agreement, Turkey would
    stem the flow of migrants embarking towards Greek islands, while the EU would accelerate the visa
    liberalization process for Turkish citizens and mobilize funding to support Turkey’s hosting of about
    3 million Syrian refugees. Moreover, the Agreement allows for all undocumented migrants arriving
    in Greece to be deported back to Turkey. For each Syrian being returned to Turkey, another Syrian
    would be resettled from Turkey to the EU. In the two years since the Agreement became operational,
    irregular migration via the Eastern Mediterranean has dropped by 97%. In 2017, Greek authorities
    registered 42,319 undocumented sea arrivals and 62 deaths at sea. However, there has been an
    increase of sea arrivals from Turkey to Greece since the beginning of 2018.
    165 CDSDG 18 E rev. 1 fin
    11
    49. Turkey has shown great generosity in hosting more than three million refugees from Syria and
    elsewhere. However, while the Agreement has been praised for reducing both irregular migration
    and the number of deaths in the Eastern Mediterranean, it has also engendered criticism, largely for
    potentially infringing on human rights and refugee law. In most cases, undocumented migrants have
    successfully appealed the decision to be returned to Turkey by arguing that Turkey is not a safe
    country. As of 12 March 2018, a total of 12,489 refugees registered in Turkey were resettled in the
    EU, but only 2,264 migrants were returned to Turkey.
    50. With the enactment of the EU-Turkey Agreement, the Central Mediterranean has become the
    main entry point for undocumented migrants arriving in Europe by sea. Stemming irregular migration
    from Libya has always been challenging. While Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria adopted legislation
    criminalizing the exit of undocumented migrants or the facilitation thereof, Libya did not follow suit
    (Fargues, 2017). With the collapse of the regime in 2011, Libya became a major transit hub for
    cross-Mediterranean migration. Libyans as well as migrants from across North Africa, the Sahel and
    sub-Saharan Africa continue to embark on perilous sea journeys to Europe, taking advantage of the
    porous borders and the weak points in state authority.
    51. The Central Mediterranean route is also the most dangerous as the distance from North Africa
    to Italy is significantly longer than that of the Eastern Mediterranean route. In 2016, the number of
    sea arrivals in Italy peaked at 181,436, while 4,578 migrants lost their lives on this route. Despite a
    significant reduction of departures from Libya over the past year, the figures for 2017 remained high
    with 119,369 arrivals in Italy and 2,873 deaths at sea. On 29 June 2018, at least 100 people died
    after a boat carrying roughly 123 refugees and migrants sank off the coast of Libya.
    52. Some observers argue the EU-Turkey Agreement caused a migratory shift from the Eastern
    Mediterranean to a longer and more perilous route. While departures from Libya indeed increased
    in spring 2016, the composition of nationalities shows that the migrants arriving in Europe via the
    Central Mediterranean route are not those who are stopped in Turkey (Fargues, 2017). Even after
    the route from Turkey to Greece was barred, the vast majority of sea arrivals in Italy still came from
    sub-Saharan Africa (UNHCR, 2017).
    53. Regarding the Western Mediterranean, traversing the Strait of Gibraltar is the shortest
    possible way to cross the sea. However, cooperation between Morocco and Spain has kept the
    number of arrivals relatively low. Migratory flows temporarily shifted to the Atlantic, where migrants
    embarked on long and extremely dangerous sea journeys from Mauritania or Senegal to the Canary
    Islands. Recently, irregular migration along the Western and Atlantic routes substantially rose again:
    sea arrivals in Spain more than doubled compared to 2016, with 28,349 arrivals by sea (European
    Commission, 2018). The similar composition of nationalities among arrivals in Italy and Spain
    suggests that efforts to stem irregular migration in the Central Mediterranean shifted migratory flows
    to the West.
    B. SAR CAPABILITIES IN THE MEDITERRANEAN
    54. Until recently, SAR operations in the Mediterranean were conducted on an ad hoc basis,
    mainly by merchant vessels and coast guards of the Mediterranean littoral states. However, the
    alarming increase in fatal sea crossings in recent years spurred the gradual formation of a proactive
    emergency response system in the region, particularly along the dangerous Central Mediterranean
    route. Today, various actors are involved in the region, including the EU, NATO, NGOs, individual
    states and merchant vessels, but often with very different approaches and geographical areas of
    operation. As international law obliges all shipmasters to render assistance to any person in distress
    at sea, all these actors engage in rescue operations to some extent, even though they might not
    operate under a primarily humanitarian mandate that focuses on SAR.
    55. The wreckage of a migrant boat off the coast of Lampedusa on 3 October 2013, which left
    366 people dead or missing, prompted a fundamental change in the region’s emergency response
    165 CDSDG 18 E rev. 1 fin
    12
    system. Within two weeks of the incident, the Italian government launched Mare Nostrum, a major
    rescue and border control operation under the authority of the Italian Navy. With a considerable
    budget of USD 12 million a month, Mare Nostrum saw the deployment of both sea and air assets
    along the Sicily Channel between Italy and Libya. Before the operation was discontinued a year later,
    it saved the lives of about 150,000 people in over 400 SAR operations. High operational costs and
    dwindling public support, however, led to its end on 31 October 2014.
    56. To replace Mare Nostrum, the EU’s Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex) launched
    Operation Triton in November 2014, thereby answering calls from Italy to share the burden.
    Operation Triton ran in parallel to Operation Poseidon, a similar Frontex-led operation in the Aegean
    Sea that started to operate in 2011. Responding to the surge of irregular migration via the
    Mediterranean and several large-scale accidents, the EU tripled the resources and assets for
    Poseidon and Triton in 2015. At the same time, Triton also expanded its operational area from 30 to
    138 nautical miles south of Sicily. Although the mandates of both operations were focused on border
    control and surveillance, the participating vessels took part in numerous SAR operations that
    assisted migrants in distress.
    57. On 1 February 2018, Frontex replaced Operation Triton with Operation Themis, again
    responding to Italian demands for fairer burden sharing. While Triton required those rescued to be
    taken to Italy, Themis leaves this decision to the country coordinating the rescue. However, as Italy’s
    Maritime Rescue Coordination Center in Rome continues to coordinate the overwhelming majority
    of SAR operations in the Central Mediterranean, the changes under Themis serve primarily as a
    political message from Italy to its Mediterranean neighbors that the country is assuming a more
    assertive stance on addressing irregular migration (Deutsche Welle, 2018).
    58. When addressing the NATO PA Committee on the Civil Dimension of Security at the Spring
    session in Warsaw in May 2018, Fabrice Leggeri, Executive Director of Frontex, noted that the
    agency is primarily a law enforcement body, but that it also has other responsibilities, such as risk
    analysis, capacity-building assistance and SAR. He said that Frontex had assisted with the rescue
    of more than 34,000 people in 2017 alone and helped save more than 280,000 lives in total since
    2015. He noted that the agency has access to satellite images from the European Satellite Centre
    (SatCen) and regularly exchanges information with other multinational bodies, including Europol and
    NATO’s Allied Maritime Command (MARCOM). He further noted that Frontex has developed a rapid
    reaction mechanism: if a member state requests support in a crisis situation, Frontex can deploy a
    rapid reaction force within five days – a capability each member state must contribute to by law.
    Mr Leggeri also informed the Committee that Frontex is in the process of developing autonomous
    aerial capabilities, which will allow the agency to engage in SAR without deploying vessels.
    59. Further incidents prompted the EU to launch the EUNAVFOR MED, also known as Operation
    Sophia, in 2015. While the operation’s initial mandate was limited to identifying, capturing and
    disposing of vessels and enabling assets used for migrant smuggling and trafficking, it has
    significantly evolved since then. Legal as well as political obstacles prevented the full implementation
    of the planned mandate, which provided for the eventual expansion of anti-smuggling operations to
    Libyan territorial waters. However, neither of the groups claiming to be Libya’s government granted
    the EU permission to enter Libyan waters, nor did the UN Security Council (Tardy, 2017). A
    2016 amendment to the operation’s mandate added capacity building and training of the Libyan Navy
    and Coast Guard to its tasks. The mandate was amended again in 2017 to include surveillance
    activities on illegal trafficking, with the information gathered in this context to be released to
    competent Libyan authorities. Meanwhile, confined to international waters, Operation Sophia’s sea
    and air assets participate in SAR missions when needed. To date, they have been involved in the
    rescue of more than 40,000 people.
    60. EU member states are working bilaterally and multilaterally to stem human smuggling and
    trafficking in source and transit countries, including Libya, despite the difficulties of operating in such
    a volatile environment. As part of Operation Sophia, the EU trained and monitored about 200 Libyan
    165 CDSDG 18 E rev. 1 fin
    13
    Navy and Coast Guard personnel in 2017, and it is planning to train an additional 90 in 2018. With
    the overall objective of increasing security in Libya’s territorial waters, these programs aim to
    enhance the capacity to conduct SAR activities as well as to disrupt smuggling and trafficking from
    and to the Libyan shores. Supported with EU funding, Italy is also planning to set up a maritime
    rescue center in Tripoli in 2018 (Tardy, 2017). While certain aspects of EU and Italian cooperation
    with Libya remain a concern from the perspective of human rights NGOs, a reduction in the levels of
    migrant smuggling has been achieved. According to the International Organization for Migration,
    the Libyan Coast Guard rescued over 20,300 migrants in 2017. Further efforts to disrupt smuggling
    networks and trafficking should center on providing support and protection to migrants, refugees,
    and internally displaced persons in Libya.
    61. NATO’s Operation Sea Guardian actively supports the EU’s efforts to enhance maritime
    security in the Mediterranean by providing Operation Sophia with information and logistics support.
    Launched in October 2016, Sea Guardian operates under NATO’s MARCOM and covers a wide
    array of duties, with maritime situational awareness, counterterrorism and regional capacity building
    at its core. Since February 2016, NATO ships and aircraft have also assisted EU authorities in
    stemming illegal trafficking and migration in the Aegean Sea by conducting reconnaissance,
    monitoring and surveillance activities and sharing any relevant information gathered in this context
    with Frontex and the Greek and Turkish Coast Guards. Although NATO’s operations and assistance
    missions in the Mediterranean generally do not focus on SAR, like all ships, they have the duty to
    help when made aware of people needing rescue nearby.
    62. Since 2014, a growing number of NGOs conducting SAR operations in the Central
    Mediterranean have worked to develop a proactive emergency response system. The first NGO to
    actively pursue rescue operations was the Malta-based Migrant Offshore Aid Station (MOAS). It was
    later joined by other organizations from across Europe, most notably Médecins Sans Frontières
    (MSF), Sea-Watch, SOS Mediterranée, Proactiva, Sea-Eye, Jugend Rettet, and Save the Children.
    Some of these NGOs have large surface vessels, allowing them to carry out entire SAR operations –
    from picking up people in distress to disembarking them at a safe port. Organizations with smaller
    capabilities focus on providing emergency medical care, life jackets and water while waiting for larger
    vessels to arrive.
    63. These NGO SAR activities in the Central Mediterranean have spurred tension among the
    different actors involved. Italian authorities have accused NGOs of colluding with smuggling and
    trafficking networks. In July 2017, the Italian Ministry of Interior, in consultation with the
    EU Commission, drafted a “Code of Conduct for NGOs Undertaking Activities in Migrants’ Rescue
    Operations at Sea”. Among other things, the code clearly prohibits NGOs from entering Libyan
    waters or transferring those rescued to other vessels, and it obliges NGOs to allow Italian law
    enforcement personnel on board their vessels. Some NGOs initially refused to sign the code, arguing
    it violates international maritime law and reduces rescue capacity. However, Italian authorities made
    clear that any failure to subscribe to the code would come at a high cost. The NGOs Jugend Rettet
    and Proactiva, for instance, had their vessels confiscated by Italian authorities and are now under
    investigation for abetting irregular immigration. Except for MSF, all major NGOs involved in SAR in
    the Mediterranean eventually agreed to sign the code after negotiations with and concessions from
    the Italian Ministry of Interior.
    64. Libyan authorities have also accused some NGOs of operating too close to the Libyan coast,
    thereby violating the country’s sovereignty. In August 2017, the Libyan Navy and Coast Guard
    started to reassert their authority over the country’s SAR zone, restricting the access of NGO vessels
    to Libyan territorial waters as well as international waters off the Libyan coast. Confronted with a
    simultaneous clampdown by the Italian and Libyan authorities, most NGOs have suspended their
    rescue operations.
    165 CDSDG 18 E rev. 1 fin
    14
    65. Merchant ships have also been involved in SAR operations on an ad hoc basis. At the height
    of the migrant and refugee crisis, merchant shipping was at the forefront of mitigating the loss of life
    in the Mediterranean. In 2015, the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) called on EU member
    states to launch a proper SAR mission to ease the strain on commercial ship operators. The
    development of the proactive SAR system outlined above resulted in a significant decline in rescues
    by merchant vessels. However, commercial ships continue to regularly assist SAR operations when
    called upon by a Rescue Coordination Center. The ICS has expressed concern that many of the
    seafarers involved are not trained to conduct large-scale rescue operations and sometimes suffer
    psychological harm from these experiences.
    66. The growing number and complexity of actors involved in managing migratory flows in the
    Mediterranean have prompted the EU to establish certain coordination mechanisms. Under the
    auspices of Operation Sophia, SHADE MED (Shared Awareness and De-confliction in the
    Mediterranean) has been established as a forum aimed at fostering dialog and easing tensions
    between different actors involved in maritime security operations in the Mediterranean. SHADE MED
    was held for the fifth time in November 2017, attracting 156 participants from 94 organizations,
    including NATO as well as relevant NGOs.
    67. Under mounting pressure from the Italian government to take “concrete steps” towards better
    burden sharing, EU leaders agreed – during the last European Council in June 2018 – on a new
    migration deal. They agreed to adopt a "comprehensive approach to migration that combines more
    effective control of the EU's external borders, increased external action and the internal aspects, in
    line with our principles and values". EU leaders decided to create “controlled centers” – i.e. secured
    refugee camps funded and managed by the EU on EU territory. These centers will aim to provide
    “rapid and secure processing allowing to distinguish between irregular migrants, who will be
    returned, and those in need of international protection, for whom the principle of solidarity would
    apply”. However, member states are free to choose if they want such centers to be set up on their
    territory. In addition, member states agreed to strengthen EU external border controls by allocating
    more funds for Frontex and some Mediterranean countries. In line with this, they agreed to launch
    the next tranche of the Facility for Refugees in Turkey and to allocate an additional EUR 500 million
    for Africa.
    68. The Council also announced plans to establish “regional disembarkation platforms” in
    third-party countries, most likely in North African countries, to process the asylum applications of
    people rescued at sea outside the EU. The idea is to separate economic migrants and refugees
    before they embark on a journey to Europe in order to reduce the number of people trying to reach
    the EU. The agreement provides for a collaboration with the IOM and the UNHCR on this question,
    but without further details. The deal also plans to boost EU support for the Libyan Coast Guard.
    69. Member state leaders appeared mainly satisfied with this migration deal. “Italy is not alone
    anymore”, claimed Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte. The agreement was also praised by British,
    German and French leaders as a "European solution" to what is currently, according to
    Chancellor Merkel, “perhaps the most challenging topic for the European Union”. In contrast, some
    leaders, such as Austrian Prime Minister Sebastian Kurz, adopted a more cautious posture, while
    the prime ministers of the Czech Republic and Slovakia criticized the decision to strengthen Frontex
    rather than providing more support for member states’ border guards. The agreement has also been
    criticized for its vagueness in terms of its actual implementation.
    70. The migration deal has also been criticized by some human rights NGOs, such as Human
    Rights Watch, who claim that the reinforcement of border controls will only encourage smuggling
    while pushing people fleeing violence and determined to reach Europe to take more perilous routes.
    They also claim that the creation of “controlled centers” contravenes Europe's founding principle of
    solidarity and its duty to observe human rights, especially in regard to migrants’ and refugees’ rights
    to liberty. Furthermore, the externalization of the asylum policy appears as a way to push this
    responsibility onto other actors, outside Europe. The problem is that these actors often fall short of
    165 CDSDG 18 E rev. 1 fin
    15
    meeting international human rights standards in many ways. The Rapporteur is convinced that, while
    implementing the deal, the EU must insist on a radical improvement of conditions and the protection
    of human rights in existing facilities on the other side of the Mediterranean.
    C. AUGMENTED SAR CAPABILITIES – LIFESAVING OR COUNTERPRODUCTIVE?
    71. To a much greater degree than in the Arctic, SAR in the Mediterranean is heavily politicized
    due to its linkage with the refugee and migration crisis. There is a debate on whether SAR operations
    encourage more and riskier sea crossings. Some stakeholders, including some EU authorities, argue
    that augmented SAR capabilities only create the impression of a safer route and help smuggling
    networks and traffickers achieve their aims at lower costs. These arguments have had tangible
    effects, causing some member states to withdraw from missions that involve SAR activities. The
    United Kingdom, for example, had initially refused to participate in Frontex-led operations in the
    Mediterranean, arguing “they create an unintended 'pull factor', encouraging more migrants to
    attempt the dangerous sea crossing and thereby leading to more tragic and unnecessary deaths”
    (Benton, 2014). Currently, however, two British Border Force cutters are deployed in support of
    Frontex operations Themis and Poseidon. Other actors, including NGOs, argue that migratory
    drivers are more complex and advocate for a humanitarian approach that focuses on saving the lives
    of those in immediate distress regardless of the consequences (see e.g. MSF, 2017). During his
    presentation to the CDS, Mr Leggeri, director of Frontex, stressed that while the agency has a duty
    to rescue anyone in distress at sea, one must not encourage criminal networks seeking to exploit
    SAR capabilities.
    72. Several studies have examined the relationship between attempted sea crossings and rescue
    activities along the most frequented Central Mediterranean route (e.g. Heller & Pezzani, 2017;
    Steinhilper & Gruijters, 2017). In general, comparative analyses of trends in sea crossings during
    periods with low and high numbers of proactive SAR activities do not support the claim that rescue
    activities encourage more sea crossings. For instance, Italian authorities reported slightly less sea
    arrivals from November 2015 to May 2016, when a significant number of state and non-state actors
    actively pursued rescue operations along the Central Mediterranean route, compared to the same
    period the year before, when Frontex’s Operation Triton was the only proactive SAR mission and
    had not even been expanded yet (Steinhilper & Gruijters, 2017). In other words, a similar number of
    people attempted to cross the Central Mediterranean irrespective of the extent of SAR capabilities
    along the route. While these analyses only demonstrate statistical correlations (or better, the lack
    thereof), they strongly suggest that augmented SAR capabilities have little effect on the number of
    attempted sea crossings.
    73. Smugglers’ tactics and operations locations have shifted in recent years, leading to riskier
    crossings in the Central Mediterranean. Namely, since late 2015, smugglers have tended to stay
    within Libyan waters, using fishing boats or rubber dinghies rather than sailing vessels (which were
    the preferred means of transportation prior to 2015), with less fuel, water and food on board
    (European Commission, 2017; MSF, 2017). There are two potential explanations for these changes.
    Riskier smuggling practices may reflect the expectation that migrants, once they are on the high sea,
    will be picked up and transported to Europe as part of rescue operations. It is also possible that
    smugglers prefer to stay in Libyan waters in reaction to the deployment of EU Operation Sophia and
    Frontex forces, whose presence means smugglers can no longer navigate with impunity in
    international waters (Heller & Pezzani, 2017).
    D. POST-RESCUE CONDITIONS
    74. Migrant flows have put strain on refugee camps in Greece and Italy as well as on detention
    centers in Libya. The EU has instituted several “hotspots” in Greece and Italy to speed up the
    registering, identifying, and debriefing of asylum seekers. However, each hotspot currently exceeds
    its capacity by at least 2,000 people and camp infrastructure is under strain as a direct consequence
    of this overpopulation. Poor conditions – such as lack of sanitation, the spread of disease, and lack
    165 CDSDG 18 E rev. 1 fin
    16
    of safety for children and women – have been noted by several international organizations working
    within the camps (UNHCR, 2018).
    75. In addition, migrants frequently feel unable to navigate an asylum system that is still slow and
    overloaded by too many applicants. The ambitious EU plan to relocate refugees and asylum seekers
    from Italian and Greek camps to other EU countries – should the applicants meet certain conditions –
    has only relocated around 33,000 people instead of the 100,000 originally planned. Germany took a
    third of those migrants. However, even Germany’s program recently ended, leaving thousands of
    migrants stranded in camps with deteriorating conditions.
    76. The situation is dire in Libya, where regulations for camps or the detention of undocumented
    migrants are far weaker than EU regulations. Serious human rights violations in migrant camps and
    detention centers have been reported by international NGOs. For example, there have been reports
    that detention center guards have sold people into slavery (BBC News, 2018). The Office of the UN
    High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) expressed dismay at the EU’s decision to assist
    the Libyan Coast Guard in catching undocumented migrants as Libya has proven incapable of
    guaranteeing humane conditions for these migrants. The EU has stated that, while it is working with
    the Libyan government to intercept boats and put in place search and rescue operations, it does so
    with the understanding that centers in Libya comply with international humanitarian standards.
    77. While conditions in camps or detention centers are challenging for all migrants, observers
    consider women and children to be the most vulnerable. Children, in particular those travelling
    unaccompanied, require more assistance from host countries, as they are at increased risk of assault
    or abuse. Similarly, women and girl refugees and migrants experience various forms of
    gender-based violence. For example, they are vulnerable to abuse – sometimes from coast guard
    personnel, host country authorities or men in their camps – as well as trafficking and sexual
    exploitation (Fry, 2016; Shreeves, 2016).
    78. The refugee and migration crisis shows that the Dublin Regulation, which determines which
    EU member state should be responsible for examining an application for asylum, requires a serious
    overhaul. The regulation’s provision that asylum applications be processed by the country that first
    allowed entry has placed a substantial burden on Europe’s southern nations. Italy and Greece
    especially have struggled to provide for their asylum seekers. This situation has led some member
    states to suspend the enforcement of the Dublin Regulation. For instance, the German government
    has periodically refrained from sending asylum seekers back to Greece and Hungary and has
    de facto suspended the regulation for Syrian applicants.
    79. The European Commission has proposed amendments that the European Parliament has
    approved, along with some amendments of its own. Key reforms include a shared responsibility of
    all EU countries towards asylum seekers, so that if a country’s capacity to accommodate
    asylum seekers is significantly overwhelmed, applications to that country will be re-directed to other
    member states. The reform proposal has been criticized – albeit for different reasons – by several
    EU states, including Germany, the Czech Republic and Hungary. Without the member states’
    agreement, it will be difficult for the European Parliament to push forward the proposed amendments.
    IV. CONCLUSIONS
    80. In the current strategic environment, characterized by blurring lines between war and peace,
    cooperation is needed between the military, civilian and non-governmental sectors to protect
    populations from old and new threats. While NATO has provided civil protection for over 60 years,
    this role is becoming increasingly important for the Alliance as it embraces a more comprehensive
    approach to security. NATO has developed several niche areas of expertise – including border
    security, surveillance, early warning, disaster relief and submarine SAR – that could significantly
    165 CDSDG 18 E rev. 1 fin
    17
    contribute to the global response to humanitarian crises. NATO’s contribution in this area does not
    only help save lives, it also enhances the Alliance’s global standing and bolsters its raison d'être.
    81. NATO and its members should provide an adequate response to new challenges to civilians
    which are arising on the Alliance’s southern and northern borders. Given that NATO’s core mandate
    is collective defense and that its capabilities are limited, NATO’s non-military involvement in the High
    North and the Mediterranean will remain complementary to the efforts of other actors. However,
    there are certain areas where the contribution of NATO and its members could be enhanced and
    expanded.
    82. Namely, when it comes to the High North, the Rapporteur would suggest:
    • Ensuring that the Alliance’s reformed command structure has the capacity to monitor
    and assess naval activities and contribute to improving situational awareness in the
    Arctic;
    • Contributing to the interoperability of SAR units in the region by holding exercises such
    as Dynamic Mercy in Arctic conditions;
    • Offering support to the Arctic Allies in developing adequate SAR assets, including
    satellite coverage and communications technologies, as well as surveillance and delivery
    drones in remote Arctic regions;
    • Welcoming initiatives to establish jointly-owned bi- or multi-national SAR bases in remote
    areas, where participating nations would provide SAR capabilities on a rotational basis;
    • Encouraging dialogue among all High North nations to clarify the role of militaries in
    providing disaster relief and SAR, particularly in multilateral operations;
    • Urging all Allies to ensure the full and rigorous implementation of the Polar Code and
    requesting the development of even higher international safety and environmental
    standards; and
    • Promoting best practices, including the requirement for ships to travel in pairs when
    traversing remote areas.
    In addition, the Euro-Atlantic community should continue to lead global efforts to reduce greenhouse
    emissions. The implementation of the Paris Agreement is paramount in order to stabilize the impacts
    of climate change on the Arctic.
    83. Regarding the Mediterranean, the Rapporteur emphasizes:
    • NATO should continue providing logistical and information support to the EU, Frontex
    and national coast guards through its operations in the Aegean Sea and through
    Operation Sea Guardian, potentially expanding the coverage of NATO assets to the
    Western Mediterranean and employing new NATO capabilities such as the Sicily-based
    Global Hawk remotely-piloted aircraft (RPA) as part of the Alliance Ground Surveillance
    (AGS) initiative;
    • The Allies should strongly consider holding Dynamic Mercy-type exercises in the
    Mediterranean;
    • The coordination of various actors and operations in the region should be further
    enhanced through SHADE MED;
    • NATO should do more to assist North African states, and particularly Libya, in training
    and otherwise assisting their coast guard, while demanding that the recipients of this
    assistance comply with international standards for the treatment of refugees and
    migrants and provide improved conditions to ensure their protection and well-being;
    • The new European Border and Coast Guard Agency should receive sufficient funding,
    as well as human and material resources, including surveillance drones; and
    • The Allies should reform the Dublin Regulation to ensure fairer burden sharing and a
    collective, rather than strictly national, approach to problems linked with migrant and
    refugee surges.
    165 CDSDG 18 E rev. 1 fin
    18
    BIBLIOGRAPHY
    (For further information on sources, please contact the Committee Director)
    BBC News, “Migrant slavery in Libya: Nigerians tell of being used as slaves”, 2 January 2018,
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42492687
    Benton, Jon, “Parliament round-up: UK withdrawal from EU Mediterranean rescue operation”, 5
    November 2014, https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/special-report/parliament-
    round-uk-withdrawal-eu-mediterranean-rescue-operation
    Bouffard, T., Managing the Barents Sea: Comparing Norwegian & Russian Offshore Oil-Spill
    Prevention Policies. Arctic Yearbook, 2017,
    https://www.arcticyearbook.com/images/Articles_2017/scholarly-
    articles/16_Managing_the_Barents_Sea.pdf
    Charron, A., Canada, the US, Russia and the Arctic – A Pragmatic look. Centre for Security,
    Intelligence and Defence Studies, 24 March 2017, https://carleton.ca/csids/2017/canada-the-
    us-russia-and-the-arctic-a-pragmatic-look/
    CRS, “Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress”, Congressional Research
    Service, 4 January 2018, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41153.pdf
    Deutsche Welle, “Frontex launches new EU border control mission Operation Themis”,
    1 February 2018, http://www.dw.com/en/frontex-launches-new-eu-border-control-mission-
    operation-themis/a-42417610
    Dushkova, D., Krasovskaya, T., & Evseev, A., Environmental & Human Impact of the Northern Sea
    Route & Industrial Development in Russia’s Arctic Zone, 2017, Retrieved from Arctic
    Yearbook, https://www.arcticyearbook.com/images/Articles_2017/scholarly-
    articles/15_Environmental_&_Human_Impact.pdf
    European Commission, “Irregular Migration via the Central Mediterranean. From Emergency
    Responses to Systemic Solutions”, EPSC Strategic Notes, Issue 22, 2 February 2017,
    https://ec.europa.eu/epsc/sites/epsc/files/strategic_note_issue_22_0.pdf
    European Commission, “Progress report on the Implementation of the European Agenda on
    Migration”, Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the European
    Council and the Council, 14 March 2018, https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-
    enlargement/sites/near/files/com_2018_250_f1_communication_from_commission_to_inst_
    en_v10_p1_969116.pdf
    Fargues, Philippe, “Four Decades of Cross-Mediterranean Undocumented Migration to Europe.
    A Review of the Evidence”, International Organization for Migration, 2017,
    https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/four_decades_of_cross_mediterranean.pdf
    Fountain, Henry, “With More Ships in the Arctic, Fears of Disaster Rise”, The New York Times,
    23 July 2017.
    Fry, H., A Gender Sensitive Response to the Migrant and Refugee Influx in Europe is Needed, OSCE
    PA, June 2016, https://www.oscepa.org/documents/all-documents/special-
    representatives/gender-issues/report-17/3382-2016-annual-session-report-by-the-special-
    representative-on-gender-issues/file
    Geiselhart, Michel T., “The Course Forward for Arctic Governance”, Washington University Global
    Studies Law Review, vol. 13, no. 1, 2014.
    Headland, Robert K., “Transits of the Northwest Passage to End of the 2017 Navigation Season”,
    Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge, 14 December 2017,
    https://www.spri.cam.ac.uk/resources/infosheets/northwestpassage.pdf
    Heller, Charles; Pezzani, Lorenzo, “Blaming the Rescuers”, Forensic Architecture agency,
    Goldsmiths University of London, 2017, https://blamingtherescuers.org
    House of Lords, Responding to a changing Arctic. Select Committee on the Arctic, 27 February 2015,
    https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201415/ldselect/ldarctic/118/118.pdf
    Ikonen, Emmi, “Arctic Search and Rescue Capabilities Survey”, Finish Border Guard/Ministry of
    Foreign Affairs of Finland, 2017,
    https://www.raja.fi/download/73962_Arctic_Search_and_Rescue_Capabilities_Survey.pdf?8
    61827138740d588
    165 CDSDG 18 E rev. 1 fin
    19
    IOM (International Organization for Migration), “Missing Migrants – Tracking Deaths Along Migratory
    Routes: Mediterranean”, 2018, http://missingmigrants.iom.int/region/mediterranean
    LeBlanc – Senate of Canada, Testimony of Pierre LeBlanc, President, Arctic Security Consultants.
    Evidence to the Standing Senate Committee on Fisheries and Oceans. The Standing Senate
    Committee on Fisheries and Oceans, 15 February 2018,
    https://sencanada.ca/en/Content/SEN/Committee/421/pofo/53827-e
    Melia, N., Haines, K., & Hawkins, E. (2017, July). Future of the Sea: Implications from Opening Arctic
    Sea Routes. UK Government Office for Science:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/634437/Futur
    e_of_the_sea_-_implications_from_opening_arctic_sea_routes_final.pdf
    MSF (Médecins Sans Frontières), “Humanitarian NGOs conducting Search and Rescue Operations
    at Sea: ‘A pull factor’?”, Issue Brief, August 2017,
    http://searchandrescue.msf.org/assets/uploads/files/170831_Analysis_SAR_Issue_Brief_Fin
    al.pdf
    Smith, T., Search and Rescue in the Arctic: Is the U.S. Prepared?, 2017, Retrieved from RAND:
    https://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD382.html
    Shreeves, R., Gender aspects of migration and asylum in the EU: An overview. European
    Parliament, 4 March 2016,
    http://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document.html?reference=EPRS_BRI(2016)579
    072
    Steinhilper, Elias; Gruijters, Rob, “Border Deaths in the Mediterranean: What We Can Learn from
    the Latest Data”, Border Criminologies, 8 March 2017, https://www.law.ox.ac.uk/research-
    subject-groups/centre-criminology/centreborder-criminologies/blog/2017/03/border-deaths
    Steinicke, S., & Albrecht, S., Search and Rescue in the Arctic. SWP, December 2012,
    https://www.swpberlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/arbeitspapiere/WP_FG2_2012_Steini
    cke_Albrecht.pdf
    Sydnes, Are Kristoffer; Sydnes, Maria; Antonsen, Yngve, “International Cooperation on Search and
    Rescue in the Arctic”, Arctic Review on Law and Politics, vol. 8, 2017.
    Tardy, Thierry, “Operation Sophia’s world. Changes and Challenges”, EUISS Brief, November 2017,
    https://www.iss.europa.eu/sites/default/files/EUISSFiles/Brief%2032%20Operation%20Sophi
    a_0.pdf
    The Economist, The Arctic as it is known today is almost certainly gone, The Economist, 29 April
    2017, https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21721379-current-trends-arctic-will-be-ice-
    free-summer-2040-arctic-it-known-today
    UNHCR, “Desperate Journeys: Refugees and migrants entering and crossing Europe via the
    Mediterranean and Western Balkans routes”, February 2017,
    http://www.unhcr.org/58b449f54.pdf
    UNHCR, “Refugee women and children face heightened risk of sexual violence amid tensions and
    overcrowding at reception facilities on Greek islands”, 9 February 2018,
    https://data2.unhcr.org/en/news/20607
    Wezeman, S., Military capabilities in the Arctic: a new Cold War in the High North? SIPRI, October
    2016, https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/Military-capabilities-in-the-Arctic.pdf
    Zysk, Katarzyna; Titley, David, “Signals, Noise, and Swans in Today’s Arctic”, SAIS Review, vol. 35,
    no. 1, 2015.
    ______________________
    COMMITTEE
    ON THE CIVIL DIMENSION OF
    SECURITY (CDS)
    COUNTERING RUSSIA’S
    HYBRID THREATS:
    AN UPDATE
    Special Report
    by Lord JOPLING (United Kingdom)
    Special Rapporteur
    166 CDS 18 E fin | Original: English | 1st October 2018
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    I. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................1
    II. HYBRID TECHNIQUES IN THE KREMLIN’S PLAYBOOK ....................................................2
    A. THE ORIGINS AND THE FRAMEWORK......................................................................2
    B. POLITICAL INTERFERENCE.......................................................................................3
    C. KINETIC OPERATIONS ...............................................................................................5
    D. DISINFORMATION AND PROPAGANDA ....................................................................7
    E. CYBER AND ELECTRONIC WARFARE ......................................................................8
    F. OTHER TYPES OF HYBRID THREATS.......................................................................9
    III. RESPONDING TO HYBRID THREATS............................................................................... 10
    A. NATO ......................................................................................................................... 10
    B. EUROPEAN UNION ................................................................................................... 12
    C. NATIONAL LEVEL...................................................................................................... 12
    D. MEDIA AND CIVIL SOCIETY ..................................................................................... 14
    IV. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................... 14
    BIBLIOGRAPHY.................................................................................................................. 17
    166 CDS 18 E fin
    1
    I. INTRODUCTION
    1. Although it is not a new term, “hybrid warfare”1
    became a buzzword in the international political
    discourse following Russia’s invasion in Ukraine and its illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. Hybrid
    warfare can be defined as “the use of asymmetrical tactics to probe for and exploit weaknesses via
    non-military means (such as political, informational, and economic intimidation and manipulation)
    [that] are backed by the threat of conventional and unconventional military means”2
    . In NATO’s
    context, “hybrid warfare” entails a campaign against an Ally or the Alliance by means that are not
    expected to trigger Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, which enshrines the principle of collective
    defence.
    2. The current security environment in Europe and North America is filled with hybrid activity. This
    special report will focus specifically on the Kremlin’s use of hybrid tactics because Moscow’s hybrid
    toolbox is arguably the most sophisticated, resourceful, comprehensive and concerted. It also
    focuses on Russia because Russia’s 2014 military doctrine clearly identifies NATO as its primary
    threat. Russia’s hybrid warfare primarily targets the Euro-Atlantic community and the countries in the
    “grey zone” between NATO/EU and Russia.
    3. Western experts agree that, while Russia is a declining power and greater challenges are likely
    looming over the horizon, in the short-term, Russia poses the most serious threat to the international
    order. In fact, Russia’s decline might be an incentive for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, to
    use available means to revise the post-Cold War settlement sooner rather than later (Foreign Affairs,
    2017). Hybrid methods can give significant advantages to the “weaker side” (Saarelainen, 2017).
    For example, they exploit the problem of attribution, wherein attacks can be difficult to trace back to
    the government of a specific country. These tactics are also aided by globalisation. Power dynamics
    are no longer based on just material means and increasingly focus on the ability to influence others’
    beliefs, attitudes and expectations – an ability that has been boosted enormously by new technology
    and the interconnectedness of the Information Age (Smith, 2017).
    4. Moscow’s use of hybrid techniques is neither random nor spontaneous. It is a manifestation of
    a well-thought out, well-funded and coordinated strategy. Recent findings of the US intelligence
    agencies, which link two very different types of hybrid methods – interference in the US elections
    and the use of Russian mercenaries in Syria – to the same pro-Kremlin oligarch,
    Mr Yevgeny Prigozhin3
    , are a case in point.
    5. The awareness of Russia’s disruptive activities in the West has grown considerably since the
    invasion in Georgia in 2008, and even more so since the illegal occupation and annexation of Crimea
    in 2014. In her speech in November 2017, the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, directly accused
    the Kremlin of trying to "undermine free societies" and "sow discord in the West" by mounting a
    sustained campaign of cyber espionage and disruption on governments and Parliaments across
    Europe. In a rare joint statement issued on 15 March 2018, leaders of the United Kingdom, France,
    Germany and the United States condemned the Salisbury chemical weapon attack as an assault on
    British sovereignty, “highly likely” committed by Russia. In August 2018, the United States introduced
    new sanctions on Russia over the Salisbury attack that would prevent Russia from obtaining
    sensitive electronic components and other dual-use technologies from the United States.
    Twenty-eight NATO Allies and partners expelled over 150 Russian officials from their territories, in
    1 The term “hybrid warfare” has been in use since at least 2005. It was subsequently used in reference to
    the strategy used by the Hezbollah in the 2006 Lebanon War.
    2 As defined in the 2015 NATO PA Defence and Security Committee General Report Hybrid Warfare:
    NATO’s New Strategic Challenge? [166 DSC 15 E bis].
    3 Mr Prigozhin, known as “Putin’s cook”, built his restaurant and catering empire largely owing to state
    contracts and his proximity to President Putin. The New York Times writes that – according to
    Mr Prigozhin’s critics, including opposition politicians, journalists and activists, as well as the United
    States Treasury and the special counsel to the US Department of Justice, Robert S. Mueller III – Mr
    Prigozhin is the Kremlin’s go-to oligarch for various covert missions.
    166 CDS 18 E fin
    2
    a show of solidarity with the United Kingdom. NATO condemned the first use of a nerve agent on
    NATO territory, and reduced the maximum size of the Russian Mission to NATO by a third, thus
    sending a clear message to Russia that there are consequences for its unacceptable and dangerous
    pattern of behaviour.
    6. This report aims at further improving awareness of Russia’s hybrid activities, including political
    interference, low-level use of force, espionage, crime and corruption, disinformation and
    propaganda, cyberattacks, economic pressure and sanctions-busting, as well as showing how
    several techniques reinforce and complement each other. The report will examine the
    counter-measures adopted by the Euro-Atlantic community and offer thoughts on additional means
    of response to enhance resilience and defend our populations against these complex threats.
    II. HYBRID TECHNIQUES IN THE KREMLIN’S PLAYBOOK
    A. THE ORIGINS AND THE FRAMEWORK
    7. Moscow’s use of hybrid warfare dates back to the Soviet era when the concepts of “active
    measures”4
    , “maskirovka”5
    and “reflexive control”6
    were developed. Hybrid methods were revived in
    Russia in the 2000s due to the renewed identification of the West as its strategic adversary,
    exemplified by Mr Putin’s speech at the 2007 Munich Security Conference. Hybrid warfare was also
    adopted in response to the stark disparity between Russian and Western conventional military and
    technological capabilities and “soft power”, and as a response to advances in information and
    communications technology, which have allowed for the emergence of new avenues for targeting
    the societies and political systems of potential adversaries.
    8. Moscow’s intention to use hybrid methods is articulated in several documents, the most recent
    being the 2014 Military Doctrine, the 2015 National Security Strategy and the 2015 Information
    Security Doctrine. These documents advocate the development of an effective means to influence
    public opinion abroad and, where necessary, a Russian resort to “non-traditional” methods. In his
    oft-cited article outlining the principles of hybrid warfare, Russia’s chief of general staff,
    Valery Gerasimov, pointed out, inter alia, that "[t]he information space opens wide asymmetrical
    possibilities for reducing the fighting potential of the enemy" (NATO StratCom, 2015). In February
    2017, the Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, publicly announced the creation of information
    operations forces “for counter-propaganda purposes.” Russia also streamlined the decision-making
    process in hybrid warfare by setting up the National Defence Management Centre (NTsUO) in 2014.
    This body coordinates the activities of military structures, but also of security and civilian agencies
    such as the Federal Security Service (FSB), the Federal Protective Service (FSO), the Foreign
    Intelligence Service (SVR), the Ministry of Interior and the State Atomic Energy Corporation,
    Rosatom. The NTsUO is seen to have “an incredibly expansive list of oversight, monitoring, and
    decision-making functions for state defence.” According to Russia expert Roger McDermott, the
    NTsUO represents a step “toward conducting more integrated security operations in the future.” The
    body is designed to give Russia the edge over NATO in taking decisions in a shorter time-frame. At
    the same time, other hybrid techniques in Russia’s arsenal are intended to sow discord among and
    within NATO Allies in order to slow down NATO decision-making (Thornton, 2016).
    4 Subversive political influence operations, ranging from media manipulation to targeting political
    opponents.
    5 Camouflaging military activities for the purpose of denial and deception. An example is the concealment
    of offensive weapons transported to Cuba prior to the 1962 Cuban Crisis.
    6 Feeding an opponent selected information to prompt him to make knee-jerk decisions that are
    favourable to the Kremlin. Timothy L. Thomas, a prominent expert on Soviet “reflexive control”, provided
    an example of how Soviet leaders paraded fake missiles and planted fake documents for Western
    intelligence to conclude that Soviet nuclear power was more formidable than it actually was.
    166 CDS 18 E fin
    3
    9. Moscow justifies its use of hybrid methods by portraying itself as a victim of the West’s
    "information aggression." Sergei Naryshkin, Russia’s foreign intelligence service chief, accused the
    United States and its allies, particularly the United Kingdom, Poland, the Baltic States and Sweden,
    of waging a covert hybrid war against countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
    Mr Naryshkin further accused the West of trying to drive a wedge between CIS countries and of
    obstructing Eurasian integration. Mr Naryshkin also accused the West of interfering in the
    “democratic processes” of sovereign members of the CIS (Belsat, 2017).
    10. As prominent Russia expert Mark Galeotti puts it, the Kremlin’s focus on hybrid techniques
    “reflects the parsimonious opportunism of a weak but ruthless Russia trying to play a great power
    game without a great power’s resources” (Calabresi, 2017). In the following chapters, this report will
    provide a brief overview of Russia’s hybrid techniques.
    B. POLITICAL INTERFERENCE
    11. While Moscow has long been suspected of interfering in the politics of its so-called “near
    abroad”, there is mounting evidence of its efforts to influence political developments in established
    Western democracies though a combination of cyberattacks, leaks of stolen data, the use of internet
    bots7
    and trolls8
    , disinformation and support for fringe political parties9
    . According to Estonia’s
    Foreign Intelligence Service, Russia is cultivating a network of “influence agents” – politicians,
    journalists, diplomats or business people who are pushing Russia’s agenda in Western Europe. The
    Special Rapporteur wishes to list some of the facts and statements that, taken in their entirety,
    suggest a deliberate policy by Moscow to meddle in recent elections and referenda in the West.
    These interventions tend to back political parties, candidates or referendum proposals that oppose
    the established system (Galeotti, 2017). The Rapporteur wishes to stress that Russian meddling in
    no way implies that Moscow’s interference was the decisive factor in the outcome of the concerned
    elections and referenda.
    12. The most salient example of the Kremlin’s interference was its attempt to influence the
    presidential election in the United States in 2016. In January 2017, the US intelligence community
    published a report stating that: “[Mr] Putin and the Russian Government aspired to help
    President-elect Trump’s election chances when possible by discrediting Secretary Clinton.” The
    report also assessed “with high confidence that Russian military intelligence [released] US victim
    data obtained in cyber operations publicly and in exclusive to media outlets and relayed material to
    WikiLeaks.” The report also notes that “these activities demonstrated a significant escalation in the
    directness, level of activity, and scope of effort compared to previous operations.” Department of
    Homeland Security (DHS) officials admitted that the Russians targeted the voter registration rolls of
    21 US states, managing to penetrate “an exceptionally small number of them.” The DHS was able
    to determine that “the scanning and probing of voter registration databases was coming from the
    Russian government’’ (McFadden, Arkin & Monahan, 2018).
    13. Individuals associated with the Russian government stole and published thousands of emails
    of US politicians and bought Facebook ads, while Russia-backed bots and trolls posted false stories
    on social media and in the comments section of articles. During the presidential election, the
    Russians ran over 3,000 adverts on Facebook and Instagram to promote 120 Facebook pages in a
    campaign that reached 126 million US citizens (House of Commons, July 2018).
    14. Senior Trump Administration officials, including the then-secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, and
    the US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, branded Russia's alleged meddling in the presidential
    7 Software applications designed to generate messages (e.g. tweets) automatically.
    8 People who post controversial, provocative, inflammatory or off-topic messages online.
    9 The techniques used by the Kremlin to target Western electoral processes are explored in detail by the
    NATO PA Science and Technology Committee’s 2018 report Russian Meddling in Elections and
    Referenda in the Alliance [181 STC 18 E fin].
    166 CDS 18 E fin
    4
    election an act of "hybrid warfare" and accused Russia of trying to “sow chaos” in elections across
    the world.
    15. The UK Parliament is investigating Russian interference in the Brexit vote. Damian Collins,
    chair of the parliamentary Digital, Culture, Media, and Sport Committee, noted that the first batch of
    data received from social media companies show that pro-Kremlin accounts were trying to “influence
    political debate in the UK and also to incite hatred and turn communities against each other”, while
    admitting that the evidence collected “could just be the tip of the iceberg” (Burgess, 2017). A report
    by British company 89up.org found that the Kremlin state media, RT and Sputnik pumped out at
    least 261 articles with a clear anti-EU bias, while pro-Kremlin trolls and bots ensured the broad
    dissemination of these articles in social media (Euronews, 2018). Another study by British experts
    found that more than 156,000 Russia-based Twitter accounts mentioned #Brexit in original posts or
    retweets – predominantly supporting “Leave” – in the days surrounding the vote. These posts were
    seen hundreds of millions of times (BBC, November 2017).
    16. Similar incidents took place in the French presidential election, most notably with the
    eight-gigabyte leak of thousands of Macron campaign documents – several reported to be falsified
    or fabricated – shortly before the poll. While the French chief of cybersecurity states there is
    insufficient information to establish this attack came from Russia, the cybersecurity company
    Trend Micro stated the attack had patterns that were very similar to suspected Russian meddling in
    the United States (Willsher & Henley, 2017). The director of the US National Security Agency (NSA),
    Michael Rogers, similarly stated that his agency pinned at least some electoral interference in the
    French election on Moscow. The NSA warned French cybersecurity officials ahead of the
    presidential runoff that Russian hackers may have compromised certain elements of the election
    (Greenberg, 2017). A Russian bank has helped finance the campaign of far-right leader
    Marine Le Pen, though the party denies allegations of impropriety (Shekhovtsov, 2015).
    17. Allegations of possible Russian interference have also reached Spain whose latest National
    Security Strategy includes the threat of misinformation campaigns. While Russia is not specifically
    mentioned in the document, Spanish officials have been open about Moscow’s interference in the
    Catalan independence referendum. The Spanish defence and foreign ministers stated that many of
    the profiles that spread fake news came from Russian territory. Reportedly, pro-Kremlin Twitter
    accounts, including bots, and Russian state media, such as Channel One, Vesti, and Izvestia,
    circulated fake or inflammatory anti-Spanish content. Notably, however, RT (formerly Russia Today)
    seems to have provided a more balanced coverage of the Catalan referendum, possibly because
    some in the Russian leadership might have thought that going too aggressively against Madrid could
    be counter-productive (Rettman, 2017).
    18. The General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD) of the Netherlands, also reported that,
    in the context of the Dutch parliamentary elections, “Russia [was] not afraid of using Cold War
    methods to obtain political influence.” In an annual report, the AIVD claimed that Russia tried to
    influence the election by spreading fake news, but that it failed in “substantially influencing” the
    election process.
    19. Russia continues to nurture links with anti-establishment political parties in the West,
    particularly among far-right parties. Alternative for Germany (AfD), which came third in the 2017
    German parliamentary elections with 12.6% of the vote, is remarkably popular among the country’s
    Russian-speaking population. According to the AfD’s own estimates, Russian speakers make up as
    much as a third of its voters. AfD leaders have travelled to Russia and met with officials from
    Mr Putin’s United Russia party and other representatives of the Kremlin. AfD’s electoral success is
    partly explained by rising anti-immigrant sentiments in German society. Pro-Kremlin trolls and bots
    are known to have bolstered these sentiments. In one notable case, Russian outlets disseminated
    the fake story of a Russian-German girl, Lisa, who was allegedly raped by migrants (Shuster, 2017).
    166 CDS 18 E fin
    5
    20. Greece also accuses Moscow of bribery and meddling in its internal affairs. In July 2018,
    four Russian diplomats were banned from Greece after evidence revealed Moscow was trying to
    sabotage the naming deal between Athens and Skopje, which would pave the way towards an
    eventual NATO membership for the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia10
    . Reports have
    revealed that Russian agents – citizens and officials – have attempted to bribe senior Greek
    intelligence and military officers as well as to fund far-right groups. This situation mirrors Russia’s
    apparent willingness to influence politics in the Western Balkans and to undermine EU and NATO
    aspirations in the region. Experts warn that the year 2018 marks the “launch of a renewed Russian
    campaign in the Balkans” (Galeotti, 2018).
    21. One of the key findings of the Lithuanian state security department’s 2018 annual report was
    that Russian intelligence and security services were particularly interested in the upcoming
    Lithuanian presidential elections in 2019.
    22. Russia has a dedicated policy to reach out to and support Russian-speaking communities
    abroad, particularly in the countries of the former Soviet Union. Moscow estimates some 17 million
    such “compatriots” live in its neighbourhood. The three major instruments that support compatriots
    are the government agency Rossotrudnichestvo, which receives USD 95.5 million in funding from
    the state budget; the Russkiy Mir Foundation, which receives USD 15 million; and the Gorcharkov
    Foundation for Public Diplomacy, which receives USD 2 million (Kuhrt & Feklyunina, 2017). While
    the official goals of these organisations appear to be legitimate (e.g. promoting Russia's culture,
    language and worldview), the activities of these groups can have political consequences, by using
    Russian-speaking minorities to pressure their governments to abandon sanctions against Russia,
    for example.
    23. Political interference and its actual impact are difficult to measure and prove. Whether it is
    funding from a Russian bank or cyberattacks by groups traced to Russian territory, it is often difficult
    to establish a clear and direct link between these actions and the Russian state.
    24. In most cases, the Kremlin’s interference does not create new societal cleavages or negative
    trends, it merely tries to reinforce them. The rise of anti-establishment political forces is an old trend.
    However, the pro-Russian attitudes of the Western far-right – examples of which are mentioned in
    paragraphs 16 and 19 of this report – are a recent phenomenon, which coincides with Moscow
    noticing these parties and providing support to them (Polyakova, 2016). Exaggerating the impact of
    Russian meddling could, in fact, be counterproductive as it could make the Kremlin more important
    than it really is. However, it should not be downplayed either and further steps to protect political
    systems in the free world are urgently needed.
    C. KINETIC OPERATIONS
    25. The term “hybrid warfare” does not refer solely to non-kinetic operations. Experts note that, as
    part of its hybrid tactics, Russia has employed “a full spectrum of activities, ranging from incitement
    of violence, kidnapping, and attempted assassination to infiltration and covert action combined with
    military efforts” (Kramer & Speranza, 2017). The most obvious example of a kinetic operation is the
    use of professional soldiers without military insignia, likely Russian Special Forces, in the occupation
    of Crimea and Donbas. These soldiers have since been referred to as “polite men” or “little green
    men.” While the origin of these troops has never been doubted, the absence of insignia allowed
    President Putin, at least formally and temporarily, to distance the Russian state from these forces
    and mitigate international reaction. Evidence of Russian military presence in Donbas is abundant,
    but, due to the lack of formal attribution of these forces, Russia continues to present itself as a third
    party in the conflict.
    10 Turkey recognises the Republic of Macedonia with its constitutional name.
    166 CDS 18 E fin
    6
    26. The degree of plausible deniability varies by context. While the occupation of Crimea was a
    poorly disguised Russian Special Forces operation, local ownership of the “rebellion” in Donbas was
    more significant, allowing Mr Putin to downplay the involvement of the Russian state to a mere
    participation of Russian “volunteers” who took a “leave of absence” from serving in the Russian
    military. In Syria, Russia’s continuing military involvement after the formal withdrawal of Russian
    forces is even more shadowy. It has relied on a private paramilitary company, the Wagner Group,
    which was also active in Ukraine in early 2014 and is, according to media and US intelligence reports,
    associated with a Russian oligarch, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Since September 2015, the Wagner Group
    has played a major role in the Syrian government’s reconquest of its territory, operating as an
    undeclared branch of the Russian military alongside official Russian forces (Hauer, 2018). The clash
    between these trained Russian mercenaries and US forces in Syria resulted in the deaths of about
    100 Russian mercenaries. Such a direct clash between Russian and US soldiers is unprecedented
    in recent history and could have resulted in a dangerous escalation. However, Mr Putin was able to
    deny any links between the Russian state and these mercenaries.
    27. The presence of private Russian military contractors has also been reported in some African
    and Arab countries, including the Central African Republic (CAR)11
    , Sudan or Libya. Companies like
    the Wagner Group allow Moscow “to enter a foreign (…) environment with minimal risk, and to exploit
    both political and economic opportunities there” while offering the Kremlin plausible deniability on its
    involvement (Hauer, 2018).
    28. A particularly alarming development is Moscow’s apparent readiness to target its perceived
    enemies on foreign soil, including with weapons of mass destruction. The collateral damage of the
    chemical attack on Mr Skripal and his daughter in March 2018 in Salisbury caused the death of a
    civilian British woman and sent her husband to the hospital. The UK investigation identified two
    Russian citizens – who travelled to the United Kingdom under the names of Alexander Petrov and
    Ruslan Boshirov – as primary suspects and linked them to the Russian foreign military intelligence
    agency (GRU). Independent investigations, including by the prominent independent research
    organisation Bellingcat, have supported this conclusion. The Russians have claimed that these two
    individuals travelled to London from Moscow for a two- or three-day visit in order to see Salisbury
    cathedral. They conveniently neglected to refer to the identification of traces of the Novichok nerve
    agent in their London hotel bedroom. More recent investigations have identified one of the two
    suspects as a much-decorated GRU colonel, Anatoly Chepiga.
    29. Other low-level uses of force by Russia include repeated incursions into NATO airspace12
    ,
    alleged involvement in the anti-NATO coup attempt in Montenegro in October 2016 and targeted
    actions such as the kidnapping of an Estonian officer in September 2014.
    30. Russia also engages in regular large-scale exercises, such as Zapad and Kavkaz, designed
    to demonstrate Russia’s offensive abilities in eastern Europe for intimidation purposes and – in the
    cases of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 – to mask invasion. When conducting these exercises,
    Russia regularly evades its commitments under the Vienna Document to exchange information about
    its exercises and notify other member states. The scope of these exercises is usually substantially
    larger than officially declared by Moscow. Zapad 2017, for instance, reportedly involved 60,000 to
    70,000 troops instead of the officially announced 12,700.
    11 Three independent Russian journalists were killed in the CAR while investigating the Wagner Group’s
    activities there.
    12 One of the most recent incursions occurred on 12 March 2018 over the Estonian island of Vaindloo.
    According to NATO’s military command, the behaviour of Russian aircraft during such incursions is
    unprofessional rather than hostile. However, this behaviour could lead to serious incidents, such as the
    shooting down of a Russian fighter jet over Turkish territory in 2017. The European Leadership
    Network’s study of 39 encounters between Russian and NATO air and naval forces concluded that these
    "highly disturbing" violations of national airspace had caused several incidents where an open conflict
    or the loss of life was narrowly avoided.
    166 CDS 18 E fin
    7
    D. DISINFORMATION AND PROPAGANDA
    31. This Committee’s 2015 report The Battle for the Hearts and Minds [164 CDSDG 15 E bis] and
    2017 report The Social Media Revolution [158 CDSDG 17 E bis] explored Russia’s disinformation
    and propaganda machine in detail. These reports show that Russian mainstream media are not
    merely biased but have been “weaponised” and turned into the Kremlin’s foreign policy tool.
    Margarita Simonyan – the chief editor of RT, which, along with Sputnik, is Moscow’s flagship foreign
    language channel to influence international public opinion – claims RT is needed “for about the same
    reason as why the country needs a Defense Ministry” and that RT is capable of “conducting
    information war against the whole Western world,” using “the information weapon” (EUvsDisinfo,
    January 2018).
    32. Russian state-controlled media fail to meet minimal journalistic requirements: they are not
    independent and receive weekly instructions from the Kremlin (EUvsDisinfo, September 2017). More
    importantly, they lack scruples and ethical boundaries, blatantly falsifying evidence and reporting
    outright lies. Examples of this unethical “reporting” are extensively presented in the abovementioned
    NATO PA reports. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has banished Russia’s RT and Sputnik
    representatives from his media pool, arguing that they are not journalists but agents of influence.
    33. In 2017, Russia’s full-scale disinformation campaign continued. EU counter-propaganda
    experts, in their annual overview, mentioned examples of spectacular claims from pro-Kremlin
    mouthpieces, such as the imminent threat of civil war in Sweden, a US plane dropping a nuclear
    bomb over Lithuania, or a report that rape cases in Sweden had risen by a thousand percent (in fact
    a rise of 1,4% since 2015). Ukraine has remained a target of many of these stories, with Ukrainians
    often described as fascists and oppressors and Ukraine portrayed as an artificial country and a failed
    state (EUvsDisinfo, December 2017).
    34. While exploiting the diverse and free Western media landscape, Russian state media promote
    a unified message and narrative. Unlike in Soviet times, this narrative has a less solid ideological
    base and appeals to a wide range of people with anti-Western, anti-liberal and anti-globalist views.
    Anti-Americanism is a key element of the narrative, designed to drive a wedge between the
    United States and Europe. This narrative embraces virtually all fringe ideas that contradict the
    mainstream Western worldview. An example of an initiative in this area is the new media venture
    “USA Really. Wake Up Americans” that was launched by the “Internet Research Agency”, a Russian
    troll factory that was indicted for meddling in the 2016 US elections and, according to numerous
    media investigations, is linked to Yevgeny Prigozhin (EUvsDisinfo, April 2018). This venture, created
    to combat the “growing political censorship imposed by the United States”, mainly targets
    anti-establishment audiences. Active on social media, it mostly spreads anti-US views and focuses
    on socially and politically divisive issues.
    35. As noted, new breakthroughs in information and communications technology, including the
    growth of social media, has allowed Moscow to propel its disinformation and propaganda to a new
    level. Multiple reports show how pro-Russian trolls and bots spread fake news and socially divisive
    contents in Western societies. NATO’s Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence reports that
    two-thirds of Twitter users who write in Russian about NATO presence in eastern Europe are bot
    accounts. Online channels are used in other ways, such as creating the illusion of a chemical leak
    through mass tweeting to generate panic in the US state of Louisiana or having the employees of
    Russian “troll factories” create false websites (Chen, 2015). Russia also imitates the official websites
    of Western institutions, for example replicating the website of the European Centre of Excellence for
    Countering Hybrid Threats, adding a pro-Russian twist. The Centre’s website address, which is
    https://www.hybridcoe.fi/, has been imitated with the web address http://hybridcoe.ru/, giving it a
    professional and legitimate look, while adding anti-NATO and anti-EU content.
    166 CDS 18 E fin
    8
    36. It must be noted that the Kremlin’s disinformation machine could acquire even more efficient
    tools in the future. The development of artificial intelligence algorithms called Generative Adversarial
    Networks (GANs) offers the possibility of easily doctoring sound and video and thus create visual
    contents that could, for instance, convincingly depict a Western leader making a pro-Russian
    statement or a statement intended to prompt panic and confusion among Western audiences (The
    Economist, 2017).
    E. CYBER AND ELECTRONIC WARFARE
    37. Russia uses cyber weapons to carry out hybrid operations such as election meddling,
    espionage and disinformation campaigns. However, a cyberattack could also be a category of hybrid
    warfare in its own right. In 2017, multiple large-scale cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure had
    serious real-world consequences. The WannaCry ransomware attack13
    , attributed to North Korea,
    crippled health services in the United Kingdom and other Allied countries. The NotPetya ransomware
    attack, attributed to Russian hackers by the United Kingdom and other Allies, targeted the Ukrainian
    tax system but spread to businesses across the country and beyond. Corporate losses from this
    attack are estimated to be in the hundreds of millions of US dollars. In November 2017, the head of
    the British National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), Ciaran Martin, warned that Russian hackers had
    targeted the British energy, telecommunications and media sectors. Russia is also accused of
    attacks on the German Parliament in 2015 and the German Foreign Ministry in 2017, as well as the
    crippling of a French TV broadcasting network (TV5Monde) in 2016. Earlier this year, the BSI –
    Germany’s Federal Office for Information Security – accused the Russian government of carrying
    out a large-scale cyberattack on German energy providers. Ahead of the US midterm elections,
    Microsoft declared it had seized fake websites created by hackers linked to Russian military
    intelligence. These websites were replicating the websites of the Hudson Institute and the
    International Republican Institute but were in fact redirecting users to web pages created to steal
    passwords and other credentials (Sanger & Frenkel, 2018).
    38. An interesting case demonstrating the link between Russian hackers, Russian “soft power”
    agents and the Russian state concerns the dispute around the potential separation of the Ukrainian
    Orthodox Church from the Moscow Patriarchate. Religious and state officials in Russia have been
    working hand in hand to prevent the split, as it would certainly diminish Russia’s influence in Ukraine.
    As the split has been tentatively approved by the Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I of
    Constantinople14
    , it was revealed that Russian hackers had targeted senior Orthodox Christian
    figures including top aides to Patriarch Bartholomew I. Reportedly, the same Russian hacker group,
    Fancy Bear, was associated with the US Democratic National Committee email hacks in 2016
    (Satter, 2018).
    39. Russia is also suspected of carrying out electronic warfare (EW) attacks. The former
    commander of United States Army Europe, Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, notes that Russia has
    developed “a significant electronic warfare capability” over the past three years. On the eve of the
    Zapad 2017 exercise, the mobile communications network in western Latvia was jammed,
    apparently by a Kaliningrad-based communications jammer aimed towards Sweden. A NATO official
    claimed the incident demonstrates Russia’s ability to intercept or jam civilian networks “within a
    significant radius and with relative ease” (Gelzis & Emmott, 2017). Norway’s public broadcaster
    announced that, during Zapad 2017, civilian aircraft operating in East Finnmark, Norway, reported a
    loss of their GPS signal. Measurements showed the disturbance came from the east. A report by the
    International Centre for Defence and Security found that further EW capability development by
    Russia would pose a serious challenge to NATO’s eastern flank. Russia uses advanced surveillance
    techniques, such as drones and covert antennas, to pull data from smartphones used by NATO
    troops in the Baltic States and Poland (Grove, Barnes & Hinshaw, 2017).
    13 Ransomware attacks lock victims’ computers and/or threaten to release captured data, demanding
    payment.
    14 Considered “first among equals” in the Orthodox Christian Church.
    166 CDS 18 E fin
    9
    40. While the problem of attribution in cyberspace is acute, most cyberattacks of this scale have
    been traced to Russia—often to groups of hackers called Cosy Bear, also known as APT29, and
    Fancy Bear, also known as APT2815
    . The NCSC has accused Russia of using cyberattacks "to
    undermine the international system." According to a 2017 British House of Commons Intelligence
    and Security Committee report, the escalation of Russian cyber activities shows Russia is no longer
    concerned about remaining covert and is adopting a more brazen approach.
    F. OTHER TYPES OF HYBRID THREATS
    41. While most countries engage in some form of espionage and intelligence gathering, the
    activities of Russian spies seem disproportionate compared to the country’s global weight.
    US intelligence experts warn that the conflict between the US intelligence community and Russian
    special services is intensifying in ways that could destabilise the bilateral relationship and the broader
    world order (Beebe, 2017). The US government claims that the number of Russian spies in the
    United States has considerably increased in the past 15 years (Schmidle, 2017). The United States
    also suspects that the Moscow-based Kaspersky Lab has used its popular antivirus software to spy
    on the United States and blunt US intelligence activities. Another example of Russian espionage in
    the United States is the case of Maria Butina, a Russian woman charged with “working to infiltrate
    the National Rifle Association (NRA) and influence US politics” (Swaine, 2018). The investigation
    has revealed her ties to Kremlin-backed banks and Russian oligarchs under US sanctions.
    42. Meanwhile, the British secret intelligence service (MI6) has reclassified Russia as a "tier one"
    threat alongside Islamist terrorism. For comparison, Russia was not even mentioned in the British
    National Security Council's annual strategic defence and security review in 2010. British experts
    further assess that Russia employs between 705,000 and 940,000 people across its security
    agencies. In comparison, the British security agencies put together employ about 16,500 people.
    Officials also assess that Russian security and intelligence budgets have grown annually by 15-20%,
    with spending mainly going to operations (Edwards, 2017). Non-NATO neighbours like Sweden have
    also reported that espionage has increased since Russia’s annexation of Crimea (Ringstrom, 2015).
    43. Russia experts such as Mark Galeotti, who addressed this Committee at the 2017 NATO PA
    annual session in Bucharest, detect links between the Kremlin and Russian-origin criminal groups
    operating in Europe. They claim to have evidence that the Kremlin uses these groups as sources of
    “black cash”, cyber attackers, traffickers of people and goods and even targeted assassinations by
    offering access to the networks of Russian intelligence. Local criminal groups have reportedly
    assisted Russia’s invasion of Crimea and Donbas (Galeotti, 2017). In May 2018, a report by the
    British Parliament’s foreign affairs Committee entitled "Moscow's Gold: Russian Corruption in the
    U.K." said that London is being used as a "base for the corrupt assets" of individuals linked to the
    Kremlin. The authors of the report asserted that these financial activities are “clearly linked to a wider
    Russian strategy” and are a threat to UK national security. The report called for a "coherent and
    pro-active strategy on Russia, (…) that clearly links together the diplomatic, military and financial
    tools that the U.K. can use to counter Russian state aggression." The proposed concrete measures
    include establishing a register of ownership for foreign companies that wish to own property in the
    United Kingdom, thereby exposing those who “purchase UK property through offshore shell
    companies, disguising their identities and the potentially corrupt sources of their funding” (House of
    Commons, 2018a).
    44. Russia has a long history of using its energy resources as a foreign policy tool16
    . It is important
    to stress that Europe’s energy vulnerability has diminished considerably. This is due to the following
    factors: 1) diversification of supply through additional infrastructure, such as new Liquefied Natural
    Gas (LNG) terminals in Poland and Lithuania; 2) the development of shale oil and gas reserves in
    the United States; 3) the EU’s steps towards an integrated energy market through the Third Energy
    15 The cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike associated Cosy Bear with the FSB and Fancy Bear with the GRU.
    16 This issue is discussed in detail by the Assembly’s Economics and Security Committee’s 2018 report
    The Energy Security Challenge in Central and Eastern Europe [070 ESC 18 E].
    166 CDS 18 E fin
    10
    Package, which forces Gazprom to sell its stakes in European transmission networks; and 4) the
    “green revolution” in energy, especially the advances in renewable energy and energy efficiency
    (Russia’s 2017 Economic Security Strategy identified the development of green technology as a
    threat to its economic security).
    45. Nevertheless, Russia retains significant leverage over Europe’s energy market. Russia’s gas
    supplies to Europe are growing and almost 40% of Europe’s gas imports come from Russia. The EU
    is currently discussing the controversial Nord Stream 2 project, a new pipeline connecting Germany
    and Russia while bypassing countries like Ukraine and Poland. Opponents of the pipeline argue that
    the project undermines the energy solidarity envisioned by the European Energy Union initiative.
    The Baltic States have taken important steps to reduce energy dependence on Russia, but their
    electricity markets remain synchronised with the Moscow-controlled electricity network BRELL. The
    Baltic states are concerned that Moscow will try to sabotage their desynchronisation plans. Lithuania
    is also highly concerned by the Russian company Rosatom’s non-transparent construction of a
    nuclear power plant in Belarus, 50 kilometres from the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius. Europe’s energy
    sector, as a whole, needs to improve its cybersecurity resilience from hostile foreign actors (Grigas,
    2017).
    46. A recent report by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies provides information indicating that
    Russia has been engaging in sanctions-busting as a foreign policy tool. More specifically,
    circumventing the UN sanctions on North Korea, Russia is believed to have supplied 622,878 tons
    of undeclared refined oil to this country between 2015 and 2017, which represents around one third
    of North Korea’s total refined oil imports during the same period (Asan, 2018).
    47. Some experts, including British Chief of the Defence Staff Air Chief Marshal Sir Stuart Peach,
    British MP Rishi Sunak and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral James Stavridis,
    warn that the Russian navy could potentially pose a threat to the undersea cables that carry
    97% of global communications and USD 10 trillion of financial transfers every day. There are no
    alternatives to these cables. Modern economies and societies depend crucially on this undersea
    infrastructure, which lacks basic defences (Murphy, Hoffman & Schaub, 2016). Russian submarine
    activity in the northern Atlantic has increased significantly in recent years, and these submarines
    have been “aggressively operating” near undersea cables. Russia is significantly expanding its naval
    capacity, including Yantar class intelligence ships and auxiliary submarines, both of which are
    specifically able to disrupt undersea cable infrastructure. Sir Stuart Peach claims the United Kingdom
    and its NATO Allies are ill-prepared to deal with the prospect of such an attack (BBC,
    December 2017). In June 2018, the United States imposed sanctions on the Russian government’s
    underwater capabilities, which reportedly helped the Kremlin tap undersea communications cables
    used by Western countries.
    48. Generally speaking, Russia’s hybrid activities pose a threat to the maritime environment. Ports
    and commercial and military vessels are easy targets for sabotage, navigational spoofing and
    cyberattacks (Kremidas-Courtney, 2018). Considering the vessels’ high reliance on cyber-enabling
    capabilities, cyberattacks can cause important damage.
    III. RESPONDING TO HYBRID THREATS
    A. NATO
    49. As noted, hybrid attacks present a challenge to the Alliance as they are generally not expected
    to trigger Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. In the hybrid era, the emphasis falls on Articles 3, which
    outlines collaboration and mutual assistance short of collective defence, and 4, which obligates
    consultations when the security of an Ally is threatened. At its summit in Warsaw in 2016, NATO
    adopted a strategy on the Alliance’s role in countering hybrid warfare. It was reaffirmed that the
    primary responsibility to respond to hybrid threats rests with the targeted nation. NATO, however, is
    166 CDS 18 E fin
    11
    prepared to assist an Ally at any stage of a hybrid campaign. The Allied leaders also announced that
    Allies would be prepared to counter hybrid warfare as part of collective defence and that the
    North Atlantic Council could decide17
    to invoke Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. Collective action
    depends on a unified assessment of the threat, a determination that Russia’s hybrid tactics aim to
    prevent.
    50. In the wake of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, NATO drafted a Readiness Action Plan (RAP)
    that tripled the size of the NATO Response Force (NRF) and introduced a Very High Readiness Joint
    Task Force (VJTF) capable of being deployed within days as a deterrent force. To ensure the
    efficiency of the VJTF, NATO set up the NATO Force Integration Units (NFIU) in eastern and central
    Europe. One notable step by NATO was the deployment of four battalions in the Baltic states and
    Poland, which considerably escalated the cost of potential aggression against these Allies18
    .
    51. To be fully effective, these military responses must be complemented by efforts to achieve
    national resilience in areas such as continuity of government, critical government services and cyber
    networks, energy, food and water supplies and the ability to deal effectively with uncontrolled
    movement of people. In 2017, NATO produced an Alliance-wide assessment of national resilience
    which generated an overview of the state of civil preparedness. This identified areas where further
    efforts are required to enhance resilience.
    52. NATO has also improved intelligence cooperation among Allies by establishing a new Joint
    Intelligence and Security Division (JISD). To reflect the growing need to take a holistic approach, a
    new branch for hybrid analysis was created within the JISD with a mandate to analyse the full
    spectrum of hybrid actions by drawing from military and civilian, classified and open sources. Many
    aspects of hybrid warfare – such as countering disinformation, cyber threats and energy security –
    are also covered by NATO’s Public Diplomacy Division and Emerging Security Challenges Division.
    NATO has also launched a platform of cooperation with Ukraine specifically dedicated to bringing
    together experts on hybrid threats.
    53. Several NATO-certified or NATO-supported centres of excellence – including the Strategic
    Communications Centre in Riga, the Cyber Defence Centre in Tallinn, the Energy Security Centre
    in Vilnius and the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE)19
    –
    provide the threat analysis and draft policy recommendations.
    54. Since the massive 2007 cyberattack against Estonia by Russian hackers, NATO has made
    great strides in developing its cyber defence capabilities. The 2016 Warsaw Summit identified
    cyberspace as the fifth “domain of operations in which NATO must defend itself.” In February 2017,
    NATO Allies endorsed an action plan that put cyber defence at the core of NATO’s collective defence
    and promoted NATO’s cooperation with the industry. Every year for 10 years, NATO has organised
    a cyber exercise week that involves NATO member states and allies reacting to simulations of
    cyberattacks that mirror real threats. Through the Cyber Defence Pledge, NATO members have
    committed to prioritising enhancements to the defences of their national networks – which is of critical
    importance, given the fact that the Alliance’s cyber security is inhibited by the capabilities of its
    weakest member. NATO has shored up the defence of its own networks20
    .
    17 All NATO decisions are made by consensus, after discussion and consultation among member
    countries.
    18 For more details on NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP), see this year’s general report of the
    NATO PA Defence and Security Committee entitled Reinforcing NATO’s Deterrence in the East
    [168 DSC 18 E].
    19 Hybrid CoE is a joint project of NATO, the EU and several NATO/EU member states, inaugurated in
    October 2017.
    20 In 2016, NATO had to ward off about 500 cyberattacks each month.
    166 CDS 18 E fin
    12
    55. NATO is also increasingly cooperating with the EU on cyber defence: the two organisations
    have increased information exchange and participated in joint exercises. They have also agreed to
    cooperate in incident response and crisis management.
    B. EUROPEAN UNION
    56. With its considerable resources and soft power, the EU is a key player in building Europe’s
    resilience to hybrid threats, particularly disinformation and cyberattacks. The 2016 EU-NATO Joint
    Declaration lists more than 40 specific areas of cooperation and as many as ten of those relate to
    strengthening cooperation on hybrid threats. However, EU-NATO cooperation is limited to the
    international staff of the two organisations and does not involve member states.
    57. In April 2016, the European Commission and the High Representative of the EU for Foreign
    Affairs and Security Policy adopted a Joint Communication on countering hybrid threats. The
    framework defines the EU’s assistance to member states in building their resilience against hybrid
    threats while recognising that the primary responsibility for countering these threats lies with member
    states. To improve situational awareness through sharing of intelligence analysis, the EU has
    established the Hybrid Fusion Cell.
    58. As a response to Russia’s disinformation campaigns, the EU created the East StratCom Task
    Force, also referred to as EU "myth-busters". The team of a dozen nationally-seconded diplomats
    exposes Russia’s online disinformation daily. After repeated calls from the European Parliament, the
    taskforce has finally been granted a separate budget of just over 1 million euros a year. The
    Rapporteur is convinced that the amount remains inadequate, given the scope of the challenge and
    the EU’s vast financial capabilities.
    59. While the EU’s recently established Permanent Structured Cooperation on Defence (PESCO)
    focuses mainly on hard security investments, one of the 17 collaborative defence projects—led by
    Lithuania and involving nine EU members – led to the establishment of rotational EU Cyber Rapid
    Response Teams. In December 2017, the EU established a permanent Computer Emergency
    Response Team (CERT-EU) covering all EU institutions, bodies and agencies. The EU allocated
    EUR 50 million to develop a cybersecurity competence network connecting private and public entities
    – including research centres, university programmes, and industry partners – to best tackle the EU’s
    cybersecurity challenges and strengthen individual member state capacities.
    C. NATIONAL LEVEL
    60. Many NATO and EU member states and aspirant countries have revisited their national
    security policies in response to Russia’s hybrid activities. While it is impossible to provide a
    comprehensive overview of these efforts within the limits of this report, the Rapporteur would like to
    highlight several important national initiatives.
    61. Regarding political interference, the United States launched an investigation into Moscow’s
    interference in its 2016 presidential election, led by US Special Counsel and former FBI Director
    Robert Mueller. The investigation has indicted 32 people and three Russian entities. The
    US Department of Justice has also indicted 12 Russian GRU intelligence officers for hacking
    Democratic Party representatives using spear phishing emails and malicious software. The 12
    officers are also charged with releasing sensitive documents and stealing the data of half a million
    voters. This is the first US official indictment charging the Russian government with intending to
    influence the outcome of the 2016 election. Moscow denies any involvement and denounces a
    “conspiracy”.
    62. Considering mounting evidence of Russia’s ongoing efforts to interfere in the upcoming 2018
    US midterm elections – including attempts to hack US senators and the creation of fake official
    websites – a bipartisan group of senators introduced a bill to impose new sanctions on Russia for
    166 CDS 18 E fin
    13
    meddling in US elections. These sanctions would mostly target the Russian sovereign debt, its
    energy projects and corrupted oligarchs.
    63. Forewarned by events in the United States and informed by US intelligence services, French
    political forces managed to prepare for impending interference in their presidential election
    campaign. Then-candidate Emmanuel Macron’s team hired cyber experts who suggested setting up
    decoy email accounts and prepared a communication strategy to deal with potential leakages.
    64. German security services successfully minimised foreign interference in the 2017 elections by
    looking for vulnerabilities in networks. Unusually, the head of Germany’s domestic intelligence
    agency went public to warn citizens about disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks from Russia
    (EUvsDisinfo, 2016). The British government helped protect its political system by tracking the major
    perpetrators of these attacks, providing politicians with professional expertise on communications
    security and working with media and think tanks to promote open discourse that counteracted
    propaganda. In the run-up to the Swedish elections in September 2018, authorities trained local
    election workers to spot and resist foreign influence, while Swedish political parties enhanced their
    email security systems. The Swedish Prime Minister announced the creation of a new agency
    responsible for bolstering the "psychological defence" of the Swedish public by "identifying,
    analysing, and responding" to "external influence" campaigns (Rettman, 2018).
    65. As previously discussed, NATO’s frontline states are concerned about kinetic threats, such
    as armed groups without military insignia. In addition to relying on NATO’s support, these countries
    have an all-society approach to defence. Lithuania, for instance, reintroduced conscription and
    published a 75-page manual, entitled “Guide to Active Resistance”, for distribution in schools and
    libraries. It includes tips on civil disobedience in case of foreign invasion. Similarly, the US Army has
    drafted a new strategy for 2025 to 2040. It focuses on enemies that have not declared themselves
    as combatants in a context where the lines between war and peace are blurred. To meet these foes,
    the US Army is expected to move toward smaller, “semi-independent” and much more versatile
    formations able to fight in every domain of warfare simultaneously (Tucker, 2017).
    66. Regarding disinformation, Germany has taken strict measures to limit hate speech and fake
    news on social media, imposing heavy fines (up to EUR 50 million) for companies – from Facebook
    to Google – that do not remove posts that incite hate or violence. In France, legislation has been
    proposed that would allow the Superior Council of the Audiovisual (CSA), a media watchdog, to take
    down contents, close user accounts and block websites in order to protect French democracy from
    fake news during elections. The proposed law would also establish responsibilities for the media to
    cooperate with the state and be transparent about their sponsored content.
    67. NATO Allies in central and eastern Europe have taken aggressive steps to counter Russia’s
    disinformation. Estonia recently increased the budget of its strategic communications department –
    responsible for countering propaganda – more than 13-fold. The Czech Republic has set up a Centre
    against Terrorism and Hybrid Threats in its Ministry of Interior to combat propaganda. The Centre
    uses a Twitter feed to debunk false stories. Lithuania hosts the US-funded Radio Liberty, which
    broadcasts to Russian and Belarusian audiences in their native languages.
    68. In terms of cyber, a notable development has been the announcement by the United Kingdom
    of the creation of a new offensive cyber force of up to 2,000 personnel, which represents a near
    four-fold increase in manpower focused on offensive cyber operations (Haynes, 2018).
    69. Sweden and Finland, non-NATO partners, are increasingly targeted by Russian hybrid
    activities. Both nations emphasise an educational approach to misinformation instead of restricting
    access to it. Both countries launched programmes to teach children to differentiate between real and
    fake sources as early as primary school. These tips are presented in entertaining formats, including
    in one of Sweden's most famous cartoon strips. Finnish Foreign Ministry officials claim that media
    166 CDS 18 E fin
    14
    literacy education has helped Finns turn away from fake news and propaganda sites and led to the
    closure of the Finnish-language bureau of Sputnik due to low readership (Standish, 2017).
    D. MEDIA AND CIVIL SOCIETY
    70. Efforts to tackle hybrid threats are not confined to the government, but have proliferated among
    civil, academic and media organisations. The most prominent civic and academic initiatives to
    expose pro-Kremlin falsehoods include StopFake.org (an initiative by Ukrainian journalists and
    students), the Digital Forensic Research Lab (an effort by the US-based Atlantic Council think tank)
    and the Baltic “elves” (volunteer internet users in the Baltic states taking on pro-Kremlin trolls).
    71. Traditional media have set up numerous fact-checking mechanisms, including the BBC’s
    Reality Check and Le Monde’s ‘Les Décodeurs’. Leading German and Swedish newspapers teamed
    up to prevent foreign information meddling during the election period. Recently, all major Lithuanian
    news outlets, the Baltic “elves” and Lithuania's Military Strategic Communications unit launched a
    joint initiative called Demaskuok.lt (“Debunk.lt”) aimed at monitoring and debunking disinformation
    before it spreads in the country. The partners are using advanced algorithms and artificial intelligence
    to scan thousands of news articles in Russian and Lithuanian in order to detect potential fake news
    and disinformation. The initiative has generated considerable interest in NATO and EU circles.
    72. Social media and technology giants, such as Facebook, Microsoft, Twitter and YouTube,
    mainly focus on removing terrorist-related contents. However, Facebook has cooperated to an extent
    with US authorities in the investigation of Russian meddling in US elections, and it unveiled new
    transparency guidelines related to advertising. In the same vein, Twitter has launched a battle
    against fake and suspicious accounts. The goal is to tackle the flow of disinformation on the platform
    and “better protect users from manipulation and abuse” Del Harvey, Twitter’s vice president, said.
    More than 70 million accounts were suspended in May and June and it continues. Most of these
    accounts are Russian and similar to fake accounts used to interfere in the 2016 US election. The
    company also announced “major changes to the algorithms it uses to police bad behaviour” (Timberg
    & Dwoskin, 2018).
    73. However, there is a growing pressure on social media companies to do more. In May 2017,
    the Home Affairs Select Committee of the British Parliament published a report that criticised social
    media firms for being “shamefully far” from tackling illegal and dangerous content. The absence of
    national borders in the cyber space makes it difficult for national legislators to force meaningful
    change, given that there is no commercial incentive for companies to share information with
    lawmakers or allow them to scrutinise their contents.
    IV. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
    74. Russia’s use of hybrid tactics poses a clear challenge to the Euro-Atlantic community. While
    Russia is much weaker economically and culturally, it often seems to have the edge in hybrid warfare
    because it has a unified decision-making process and a clear anti-Western agenda. The Kremlin is
    also not bound by the same ethical constraints as many NATO members, as manifested, inter alia,
    by the rigging of the recent Russian presidential ‘elections’ in favour of the incumbent – to the extent
    of stuffing ballot boxes in front of the cameras, setting up “troll factories” and even targeting
    individuals with weapons of mass destruction on foreign soil. The Kremlin exploits the open media
    landscape in the free world while eradicating free speech domestically and turning its media
    channels into weapons of mass deception. It sponsors extreme political movements in the West
    while persecuting the opposition at home.
    75. Russia’s hybrid machine is innovative and difficult to predict. In most cases, the Kremlin
    exploits and aims to amplify cleavages that already exist in Western societies. Therefore, it is
    imperative to focus on building the overall resilience of a society and addressing domestic
    grievances, rather than on efforts to predict Russia’s next move. Examples from Sweden and Finland
    166 CDS 18 E fin
    15
    are particularly relevant in this regard. Hybrid defence efforts should primarily be oriented inwards,
    rather than outwards against a specific country. The Alliance should harness the powers of
    democracy, free speech, basic human rights and the rule of law in a more proactive way to counter
    the vulnerabilities of a hybrid threat.
    76. That said, the Rapporteur would like to offer several concrete proposals to enhance the
    Euro-Atlantic community’s response to the Kremlin’s hybrid operations:
    - The Allies should revise their education policies to ensure that schools promote genuine, fact-
    based debate and critical thinking. New generations – who are avid social media users – ought
    to be encouraged to come out of their virtual bubbles and recognise signs of trolls and bots.
    Conventional armed forces play a supporting role in hybrid warfare, but the existence of an
    educated, patriotic and resilient society is our first line of defence.
    - An effective response to hybrid threats depends on seamless teamwork, across different
    areas. There is a need for better coherence and coordination within NATO, especially by
    pulling together the available civilian and military assets.
    - There is a need to increase strategic awareness. Member states must be able to assess events
    on the ground quickly and unanimously to respond effectively to Russia’s hybrid threats. This
    effort requires greater intelligence sharing, reinforcing links between domestic agencies and a
    renewed discussion of the role of Special Forces in coordinating military assistance among
    NATO member states and partners. Some commentators suggest creating a designated “East
    Hub” for NATO, akin to the “South Hub” in Naples, Italy. However, the Rapporteur believes
    priority should be given to making full use of existing structures, such as NATO’s Joint Forces
    Command located in Brunssum, the Netherlands.
    - NATO members that have not yet designated specific government units charged with
    countering fake news and hostile propaganda with facts round-the-clock ought to do so.
    Existing NATO and EU capabilities, such as NATO’s Public Diplomacy Division and the EU’s
    East Stratcom Task Force, should receive additional financial, technological and human assets
    in order to better provide credible responses to hybrid warfare as often as possible.
    - While focusing on domestic resilience, restrictive measures – such as the removing fake news,
    imposing penalties for spreading hate speech and blacklisting and freezing the assets of the
    most active Russian disinformation warriors – should continue to be applied. Members should
    seriously consider targeting the Western assets of corrupt Russian elites.
    - Electoral structures should be designated as strategic infrastructure. National security and
    cyber institutions should offer their assistance to political parties and candidates in protecting
    their data and networks.
    - While cyber defence is growing in priority, more creative thinking and multilateral cooperation
    across the Alliance is needed to enhance the security of our networks and systems. The Allies
    should consider strengthening their retaliatory capabilities in cyberspace, allowing NATO to
    call upon Allies to use, where appropriate, their offensive cyber capabilities in support of NATO
    operations. The protection of undersea communication cables should be prioritised.
    - While welcoming the progress made in deepening NATO-EU cooperation on countering hybrid
    threats, more can be done in this area. The Rapporteur recommends the two institutions
    consider establishing a joint Brussels-based platform for combating hybrid threats. The
    organisations should also consider creating small NATO-EU counter-hybrid teams tasked with
    information fusion and analysis to enhance situational awareness (European Parliament,
    2017).
    166 CDS 18 E fin
    16
    - It is imperative to continue efforts to diversify energy imports and promote energy efficiency,
    including by implementing the vision of the EU Energy Union.
    - To limit the space for Russian hybrid warfare, the problem of “grey zones” in eastern Europe
    must be addressed. Leaving eastern European countries in limbo is an invitation for further
    Russian aggression and tensions with the West. Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova, as well as the
    Western Balkan countries, should be given a clear membership perspective both in NATO and
    the EU. Their accession should be based solely on their implementation of membership
    criteria.
    77. The Rapporteur supports the view that NATO should mainstream its role in responding to
    hybrid threats in its strategic documents. For example, the former British foreign secretary,
    William Hague, recently urged the Allies to consider revising the Washington Treaty and introducing
    an Article 5B. The new article would make clear that hybrid attacks would trigger a collective
    response from the Alliance. While changing the Treaty, which has withstood the test of time, might
    not have wide support among the Allies, the Rapporteur is convinced that the Allied leaders should
    initiate the drafting of the Alliance’s new Strategic Concept to reflect new global security realities,
    including the rise of hybrid threats. As Mr Hague put it: “The updating of NATO […] would mean that
    the Western alliance, so accustomed to the black and white choice of peace or war, would at last be
    adapting to the new world so beloved of President Putin and displayed in his election victory—a
    world of permanent grey.”
    78. In conclusion, the Rapporteur wishes to stress that the Kremlin appears determined to disrupt
    collective European decision-making and reduce the influence of the United States on the continent.
    In its attempts to weaken the Euro-Atlantic security community, Moscow challenges our collective
    vision of a Europe that is whole and at peace. It is a daunting challenge, but the Euro-Atlantic
    community has the capacity to counter it if it acts in the spirit of solidarity. The wide international
    reaction to the outrageous use of chemical warfare on UK soil demonstrates that the international
    community is becoming aggressively impatient in response to Russia’s hybrid tactics. As the British
    Prime Minister, Theresa May, put it in her remarks to Russian leaders: "We know what you are doing,
    and you will not succeed. Because you underestimate the resilience of our democracies, the
    enduring attraction of free and open societies and the commitment of Western nations to the
    alliances that bind us."
    166 CDS 18 E fin
    17
    BIBLIOGRAPHY
    Asan. (2018, July 31). The Rise of Phantom Traders: Russian Oil Exports to North Korea. Retrieved
    from The Asian Insitute for Policy Studies: http://en.asaninst.org/contents/the-rise-of-phantom-
    traders-russian-oil-exports-to-north-korea/
    BBC. (2017, December 15). Russia a 'risk' to undersea cables, defence chief warns.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42362500
    BBC. (2017, November 17). UK cyber-defence chief accuses Russia of hack attacks.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-41997262
    Beebe, G. (2017, October 31). Containing Our Intelligence War with Russia. Retrieved from The
    National Interest: http://nationalinterest.org/feature/containing-our-intelligence-war-russia-
    22985
    Belsat. (2017, December 22). Russia’s foreign intelligence chief accuses West of waging hybrid war.
    Retrieved from Belsat: http://belsat.eu/en/news/russia-s-foreign-intelligence-chief-accuses-
    west-of-waging-hybrid-war/
    Burgess, M. (2017, November 10). Here's the first evidence Russia used Twitter to influence Brexit.
    Retrieved from Wired: http://www.wired.co.uk/article/brexit-russia-influence-twitter-bots-
    internet-research-agency
    Calabresi, Massimo. “Inside Russia’s Social Media War on America.” Time, 18 May 2017.
    http://time.com/4783932/inside-russia-social-media-war-america/
    Chen, Adrian, “The Agency”, The New York Times Magazine, 2 June 2015,
    https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/07/magazine/the-agency.html
    Edwards, J. (2017, December 3). British security services are vastly outgunned by the Russian
    counterintelligence threat. Retrieved from Business Insider:
    http://uk.businessinsider.com/british-security-services-vs-russian-counterintelligence-threat-
    2017-12?r=UK&IR=T
    European Parliament. (2017, March). Countering hybrid threats: EU-NATO cooperation.
    http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2017/599315/EPRS_BRI(2017)599315
    _EN.pdf
    Euronews. (2018, February 12). New report concludes Russian social media interfered in UK's EU
    referendum. Retrieved from Euronews: http://www.euronews.com/2018/02/12/new-report-
    concludes-russian-social-media-interfered-in-uk-s-eu-referendum
    EUvsDisinfo. (2016, December 16). A threat to democracy. Retrieved from EUvsDisinfo:
    https://euvsdisinfo.eu/a-threat-to-democracy/
    EUvsDisinfo. (2017, September 11). Three things you should know about RT and Sputnik. Retrieved
    from EUvsDisinfo: https://euvsdisinfo.eu/three-things-you-should-know-about-rt-and-sputnik/
    EUvsDisinfo. (2017, December 21). What didn’t happen in 2017? Retrieved from EUvsDisinfo:
    https://euvsdisinfo.eu/what-didnt-happen-in-2017/
    EUvsDisinfo. (2018, January 15). Chief Editor: RT is like “a defence ministry”. Retrieved from
    EUvsDisinfo: https://euvsdisinfo.eu/chief-editor-rt-is-like-a-defence-ministry/
    EUvsDisinfo. (2018, April 16). “USA Really. Wake Up Americans”. The story of Russia’s new private
    propaganda outlet. Retrieved from EUvsDisinfo: https://euvsdisinfo.eu/usa-really-wake-up-
    americans-the-story-of-russias-new-private-propaganda-outlet/
    Foreign Affairs. (2017, November 13). How Big a Challenge Is Russia? Retrieved from Foreign
    Affairs: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ask-the-experts/2017-11-13/how-big-challenge-russia
    Galeotti, Mark, “The Kremlin’s Newest Hybrid Warfare Asset: Gangsters”, Foreign Policy,
    12 June 2017, http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/12/how-the-world-of-spies-became-a-
    gangsters-paradise-russia-cyberattack-hack/
    Galeotti, Mark, “Do the Western Balkans face a coming Russian storm?”, European Council on
    Foreign Relations, ECFR/250, April 2018, https://www.ecfr.eu/page/-
    /ECFR250_do_the_western_balkans_face_a_coming_russian_storm.pdf
    Gelzis, G., & Emmott, R. (2017, October 5). Russia may have tested cyber warfare on Latvia,
    Western officials say. Retrieved from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-
    nato/russia-may-have-tested-cyber-warfare-on-latvia-western-officials-say-idUSKBN1CA142
    166 CDS 18 E fin
    18
    Greenberg, A. (2017, September 5). The NSA confirms it: Russia hacked French election
    ‘infrastructure’. Retrieved from Wired: https://www.wired.com/2017/05/nsa-director-confirms-
    russia-hacked-french-election-infrastructure/
    Grigas, A. (2017, November). Is Russia’s Energy Weapon Still Potent in the Era of Integrated Energy
    Markets? Retrieved from Hybrid CoE: https://www.hybridcoe.fi/wp-
    content/uploads/2017/12/Strategic-Analysis-November-2017.pdf
    Grove, T., Barnes, J., & Hinshaw, D. (2017, October 4). Russia Targets NATO Soldier Smartphones,
    Western Officials Say. Retrieved from Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-
    targets-soldier-smartphones-western-officials-say-
    1507109402?utm_content=buffer2da6c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm
    _campaign=buffer
    Hauer, N. (2018, August 27). Russia’s Favorite Mercenaries. Retrieved from The Atlantic:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/08/russian-mercenaries-wagner-
    africa/568435/
    Haynes, D. (2018, September 21). Britain to create 2,000-strong cyber force to tackle Russia threat.
    Retrieved from SkyNews: https://news.sky.com/story/britain-to-create-2000-strong-cyber-
    force-to-tackle-russia-threat-11503653
    House of Commons. (2018b, July 29). Disinformation and ‘fake news’: Interim Report. Retrieved
    from Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee: UK - Disinformation and ‘fake news’: Interim
    Report
    House of Commons. (2018a, May 21). Moscow’s Gold: Russian Corruption in the UK. Retrieved
    from Foreign Affairs Committee:
    https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmfaff/932/932.pdf
    Kramer, F. D. & Speranza, L. M. (2017, May). Meeting the Russian Hybrid Challenge. Retrieved
    from Atlantic Council: https://euagenda.eu/upload/publications/untitled-92736-ea.pdf
    Kremidas-Courtney, C. (2018, June 11). Countering Hybrid Threats in the Maritime Environment.
    Retrieved from CIMSEC: http://cimsec.org/countering-hybrid-threats-in-the-maritime-
    environment/36553
    Kuhrt, N., & Feklyunina, V. (2017). Assessing Russia’s Power: A Report. Retrieved from King’s
    College London and Newcastle University:
    https://www.bisa.ac.uk/files/working%20groups/Assessing_Russias_Power_Report_2017.pdf
    McFadden, C., Arkin, W. M. & Monahan, K. (2018, February 7). Russians penetrated U.S. voter
    systems, top U.S. official says. Retrieved from NBC News:
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/russians-penetrated-u-s-voter-systems-says-top-
    u-s-n845721?cid=db_npd_nn_fb_fbbot
    Murphy, M., Hoffman, F. G. & Schaub, G. (2016, November). Hybrid Maritime Warfare and the Baltic
    Sea Region. Retrieved from Centre for Military Studies, University of Copenhagen:
    http://cms.polsci.ku.dk/publikationer/hybrid-maritim-
    krigsfoerelse/Hybrid_Maritime_Warfare_and_the_Baltic_Sea_Region.pdf
    NATO StratCom Centre of Excellence, “Countering propaganda: NATO spearheads use of
    behavioural change science”, 12 May 2015, https://www.stratcomcoe.org/countering-
    propaganda-nato-spearheads-use-behavioural-change-science
    Polyakova, Alina, “Why Europe Is Right to Fear Putin’s Useful Idiots”, Foreign Policy, 23 February
    2016, http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/23/why-europe-is-right-to-fear-putins-useful-idiots/
    Rettman, A. (2017, November 13). Spain joins call for EU action on propaganda. Retrieved from EU
    Observer: https://euobserver.com/foreign/139843
    Rettman, A. (2018, January 15). Sweden raises alarm on election meddling. Retrieved from EU
    Observer: https://euobserver.com/foreign/140542
    Ringstrom, Anna, “Sweden security forces fear Russian military operations”, Reuters, 18 March
    2015, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sweden-espionnage-russia/sweden-security-forces-
    fear-russian-military-operations-idUSKBN0ME1H620150318
    Saarelainen, M. (2017, September 4). Hybrid threats – what are we talking about? Retrieved from
    Hybrid CoE: https://www.hybridcoe.fi/hybrid-threats-what-are-we-talking-about/
    166 CDS 18 E fin
    19
    Sanger, D. E., & Frenkel, S. (2018, August 21). New Russian Hacking Targeted Republican Groups,
    Microsoft Says. Retrieved from The New York Times:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/21/us/politics/russia-cyber-hack.html
    Satter, R. (2018. August 28). Ungodly espionage: Russian hackers targeted Orthodox clergy.
    Associated Press: https://www.apnews.com/26815e0d06d348f4b85350e96b78f6a8/Nothing-
    sacred:-Russian-spies-tried-hacking-Orthodox-clergy
    Shekhovtsov, Anton, “Russia and Front National: Following the Money”, The Interpreter, 3 May 2015,
    http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-and-front-national-following-the-money/
    Schmidle, Nicholas, “The U.S. Has More to Lose Than Russia in Spy Expulsions”, The New Yorker,
    7 August 2017, https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-us-has-more-to-lose-than-
    russia-in-spy-expulsions
    Shuster, S. (2017, September 25). How Russian Voters Fueled the Rise of Germany's Far-Right.
    Retrieved from Time: http://time.com/4955503/germany-elections-2017-far-right-russia-
    angela-merkel/
    Smith, H. (2017, October). In the era of hybrid threats: Power of the powerful or power of the “weak”?
    Retrieved from Hybrid CoE: https://www.hybridcoe.fi/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Strategic-
    Analysis-October-2017.pdf
    Standish, R. (2017, October 12). Russia’s Neighbors Respond to Putin’s ‘Hybrid War’. Retrieved
    from Foreign Policy: http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/12/russias-neighbors-respond-to-putins-
    hybrid-warlatvia-estonia-lithuania-finland/
    Swaine, J. (2018, August 6). Maria Butina’s alleged backer linked to Kremlin-financed bank and Putin
    associates. Retrieved from The Guardian:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/06/maria-butina-charged-spying-putin-russia-
    kremlin
    The Economist. (2017, July 1). Fake news: you ain’t seen nothing yet. Retrieved from The
    Economist: https://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21724370-generating-
    convincing-audio-and-video-fake-events-fake-news-you-aint-seen
    Timberg, C., & Dwoskin, E. (2018, July 6). Twitter is sweeping out fake accounts like never before,
    putting user growth at risk. Retrieved from The Washington Post:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2018/07/06/twitter-is-sweeping-out-fake-
    accounts-like-never-before-putting-user-growth-
    risk/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.e2d094395640
    Thornton, R. (2016, October 27). Russian “Hybrid Warfare” and the National Defence Management
    Centre (NTsUO). Retrieved from After ‘hybrid warfare’, what next?
    http://tietokayttoon.fi/documents/10616/1266558/Understanding+and+respond-
    ing+to+contemporary+Russia/49bdb37f-11da-4b4a-8b0d-0e297af39abd?ver-sion=1.0
    Tucker, P. (2017, October 9). How the US Army is Preparing to Fight Hybrid War in 2030. Retrieved
    from Defense One: http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2017/10/how-us-army-preparing-
    fight-hybrid-war-2030/141634/?oref=d-
    topstory&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB+10.10.2017&utm_
    term=Editorial+-+Early+Bird+Brief
    Willsher, Kim, and Henley, Jon, “Emmanuel Macron's campaign hacked on eve of French election”,
    The Guardian, 6 May 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/06/emmanuel-
    macron-targeted-by-hackers-on-eve-of-french-election
    ________________________
    COMMITTEE ON THE
    CIVIL DIMENSION OF SECURITY
    215 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    Original: English
    RESOLUTION 445
    on
    UPDATING THE RESPONSES TO RUSSIA’S HYBRID TACTICS*
    The Assembly,
    1. Acknowledging that the awareness of Russia’s use of hybrid tactics against the Euro-Atlantic
    community has grown considerably in recent years, but mindful that these tactics continue to pose
    a serious challenge to Euro-Atlantic stability, security and unity as well as to our vision of a Europe
    whole, free and at peace;
    2. Alerted by the clear anti-Western agenda of the Kremlin and the complexity of its hybrid
    toolbox that ranges from political interference to use of force, targeted assassinations, aggressive
    espionage, exporting crime and corruption, weaponising information, conducting cyberattacks and
    applying economic pressure;
    3. Applauding the adoption – at the 2016 Warsaw Summit – of the NATO strategy to counter
    hybrid threats and the subsequent decision of the 2018 Brussels Summit to establish Counter Hybrid
    Support Teams as well as the statement that there can be no return to “business as usual” until there
    is a clear change in Russia’s actions that demonstrates compliance with international law and its
    international obligations;
    4. Welcoming the deepening of NATO-EU cooperation in countering hybrid threats as well as
    important initiatives undertaken by national governments, and traditional and social media outlets as
    well as civil society actors to counter Russia’s disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks;
    5. Condemning in the strongest terms the use of a nerve agent in Salisbury, United Kingdom,
    and praising the unity and support demonstrated by the Allies to the British government;
    6. Denouncing Russia’s meddling in recent elections and referenda in the Euro-Atlantic area,
    and deeply concerned by the similar threat posed to upcoming elections as well as by the Kremlin’s
    support for fringe political movements in the West;
    7. Condemning the illegal construction of the Kerch bridge by Russia, combined with its policy
    of selective access denial and arbitrary detaining of Ukrainian and foreign vessels in the Azov Sea,
    and deeply concerned by new security, economic and ecological threats to the region;
    8. Reiterating its firm support to the investigation conducted by the Dutch authorities on the
    downing of flight MH17 in Ukraine, and calling on the Kremlin to comply with UN Security Council
    Resolution 2166, take responsibility and fully cooperate with all efforts to establish accountability;
    * Presented by the Committee on the Civil Dimension of Security and adopted by the Plenary Assembly
    on Monday 19 November 2018, Halifax, Canada
    215 CDS 18 E rev. 1 fin
    2
    9. Cognisant of Russia’s continued hybrid warfare against Georgia aimed at undermining
    Georgia’s European and Euro-Atlantic aspirations and at discrediting Western values;
    10. Believing strongly in the resilience of democracy and the ability of open societies to prevail
    against hybrid threats;
    11. URGES member governments and parliaments of the North Atlantic Alliance:
    a. to reflect the new global security realities in the next NATO Strategic Concept and to take the
    Russian hybrid threat into account;
    b. to reiterate the position that hybrid attacks can trigger the Allies’ right to collective defence;
    c. to consider discussing hybrid threats in the framework of the NATO-Russia Council;
    d. to redouble efforts to build resilience among their civil society against any type of hybrid attack,
    including by revising education policies in order to promote critical thinking and cyber literacy
    from an early age;
    e. to continue applying restrictive measures, such as applying fines in cases of hate speech, and
    encouraging social media companies to increase their capabilities in removing fake news and
    identifying fake or automated accounts;
    f. to consider introducing targeted sanctions in solidarity with the United Kingdom, and other
    members recently targeted by Russia’s hybrid attacks;
    g. to enhance coherence and coordination between NATO civilian and military assets, as well
    as between NATO and the EU, in responding to hybrid threats;
    h. to increase strategic awareness by enhancing intelligence sharing and cooperation between
    domestic agencies and strengthening further NATO’s Joint Intelligence and Security Division;
    i. to continue investing in the development of well-trained local Special Forces as the first port
    of call in scenarios involving the use of mercenaries and armed men without military insignia;
    j. to enhance further a coordinated and comprehensive cooperation with aspirant partners in
    the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe on countering Russian hybrid warfare tactics;
    k. to adopt a coherent and pro-active strategy to target the Western assets of corrupt Russian
    elites;
    l. to design specific government units and support media and civil society initiatives in the field
    of debunking fake news and identifying hostile propaganda and to provide existing EU and
    NATO capabilities with additional financial, technological and human support;
    m. to recognise the importance of developing cyber capabilities enabling Allies to impose costs
    on those who harm them in cyberspace and allowing NATO, where appropriate, to use these
    cyber capabilities to support its operations;
    n. to identify electoral structures as strategic infrastructure and to offer assistance to political
    parties and candidates in protecting their data and networks;
    o. to continue efforts to diversify energy imports and promote energy efficiency.
    _______________
    COMMITTEE ON THE
    CIVIL DIMENSION OF SECURITY
    216 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    Original: English
    RESOLUTION 446
    on
    SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN THE HIGH NORTH*
    The Assembly,
    1. Alarmed by the speed of the climate change in the Arctic regions;
    2. Mindful of the growing geostrategic importance of the Arctic as the changing climate creates
    new opportunities for shipping, exploitation of mineral resources, fishing and tourism, as well as for
    military activities;
    3. Concerned that – while the threat of an armed conflict in the Arctic is still low – it cannot be
    entirely ruled out that a possible spill-over of tension between Russia and NATO Allies, as well as
    China’s increasing engagement, could lead to more strategic rivalry in the region;
    4. Acknowledging the scale and scope of Russia’s military build-up in the Arctic, including the
    revamping of the Northern Fleet, the establishment of military infrastructure across the region, the
    development of anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) capabilities, and dramatic increases in air and
    submarine activity on the Alliance’s borders;
    5. Recalling that at the 2016 Warsaw Summit, the Alliance committed to strengthening its
    maritime posture in the North Atlantic and to improving the Alliance’s comprehensive situational
    awareness in the region to deter and defend against any potential threats, including against sea
    lines of communication and maritime approaches of NATO territory;
    6. Welcoming NATO’s decision to establish a new Atlantic Command in Norfolk, Virginia,
    (United States);
    7. Mindful of the different perspectives among the Allies on the scope of NATO’s presence in
    the Arctic, yet persuaded that NATO can offer added value in the region;
    8. Aware that the increasing human activity in the region raises serious concerns relating to
    human security and the protection of critical economic infrastructures, particularly in the context of
    harsh weather conditions and limited search and rescue (SAR) capabilities;
    9. Convinced that international cooperation as well as close partnership between the military,
    public and non-governmental sectors are essential in order to provide adequate civilian protection
    in the High North;
    * Presented by the Committee on the Civil Dimension of Security and adopted by the Plenary Assembly
    on Monday 19 November 2018, Halifax, Canada
    216 CDS 18 E rev.1 fin
    2
    10. Highlighting the role of the Arctic Council as the main vehicle for cooperation in the Arctic;
    11. Emphasising that interstate relations and Arctic economic development should adhere to
    international law, both customary and case law, as well as relevant international conventions and
    rules, including the Polar Code;
    12. URGES member governments and parliaments of the North Atlantic Alliance:
    a. to steer international efforts towards promoting cooperation in the Arctic in a spirit of
    responsible stewardship, and preventing tensions and competition in the region from becoming
    insurmountable;
    b. to adapt NATO strategic posturing in the High North to the new security realities identified in
    the Assembly’s 2017 report “NATO and Security in the Arctic”, including supporting the Allied
    Arctic littoral states in developing adequate defensive assets and capabilities and organising
    more joint exercises such as Trident Juncture;
    c. to bolster NATO’s enhanced situational awareness through greater expertise in the Arctic
    region;
    d. to promote and exchange best practices in terms of SAR and contribute to the interoperability
    of SAR units through joint exercises both among NATO countries and with non-NATO
    countries;
    e. to maintain and further develop constructive cooperation with Russia in the fields of search
    and rescue, fisheries and scientific research;
    f. to support the work of multinational frameworks, such as the Arctic Council, and to ensure full
    compliance with international law, both customary and case law, the implementation of the
    Polar Code and the further development of higher international safety and environmental
    standards for the High North;
    g. to ensure that Indigenous peoples and communities are adequately consulted and represented
    throughout decision-making processes concerning the Arctic region;
    h. to strengthen efforts to minimise the impacts of climate change on the Arctic, especially by
    reducing greenhouse emissions and implementing the Paris Agreement.
    _______________
    DEFENCE AND SECURITY
    COMMITTEE (DSC)
    REINFORCING NATO'S
    DETERRENCE IN THE EAST
    General Report
    by Joseph A. DAY (Canada)
    General Rapporteur
    168 DSC 18 E fin | Original: English | 17 November 2018
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    I. INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................................1
    II. NATO’S NEW SECURITY CONTEXT................................................................................1
    A. NATO-RUSSIA RELATIONS DRIVING EASTERN DEFENSE AND
    DETERRENCE RECALIBRATION............................................................................2
    B. DISRUPTIVE DOCTRINE AND MILITARY MODERNIZATION VIEWED MORE
    CLOSELY.................................................................................................................2
    III. CHANGES TO NATO’S DEFENSE AND DETERRENCE POSTURE – EAST...................4
    IV. THE EFP AND TRIPWIRE DETERRENCE .......................................................................4
    V. THE TAILORED FORWARD PRESENCE .........................................................................5
    VI. BARRIERS TO ENTRY – THE CHALLENGES OF DEFENDING THE EAST....................7
    A. RUSSIAN REGIONAL A2/AD CAPABILITIES ..........................................................7
    B. THE ZAPAD 2017 EXERCISE..................................................................................8
    C. THE VOSTOK-2018 EXERCISE...............................................................................8
    VII. ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM: ADDRESSING NATO’S KEY REMAINING
    HURDLES TO MILITARY MOBILITY AND DEFENSE INVESTMENTS...........................10
    VIII. CONCLUSIONS ..............................................................................................................13
    BIBLIOGRAPHY..............................................................................................................17
    168 DSC 18 E fin
    1
    I. INTRODUCTION
    1. NATO’s most conspicuous steps to adapt its defense and deterrence posture since 2014 are
    being taken in the Alliance’s eastern European territories. Increased Allied presence in the form of
    rotating forces, equipment stockpiles and exercises is changing the balance of conventional forces
    to deter a resurgent, revisionist and increasingly capable Russia. This general report will review and
    assess the Alliance’s ‘tripwire’ deterrence via the establishment of the Enhanced Forward Presence
    (EFP) in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, as well as the Tailored Forward Presence (TFP) in
    the Black Sea region.
    2. Increased Alliance presence in both regions is meant to signal the credibility of the Alliance’s
    post-2014 defense and deterrence posture – which includes the balance of conventional and nuclear
    forces, as well as missile defense and arms control initiatives. Significant contributions from the
    United States and Canada underscore the transatlantic security imperative of the efforts to reinforce
    the Alliance’s eastern flank. According to officials at NATO HQ, the EFP and TFP are intended to
    communicate Alliance cohesion and capability in the face of an evolving threat to Allied populations
    and territory.
    3. As this report highlights, the current configuration of conventional forces in the Alliance’s
    eastern territories remains insufficient. In the instance of a contingency in any region along the
    eastern flank, particularly in the Baltic States, the Alliance would be at pains to reinforce any
    operation to repel an invading force and return the area to the status quo ante. This is due to
    two critical remaining challenges: first, the ability to move necessary military equipment and
    personnel to and across the region due to cumbersome bureaucratic and logistical hurdles; and
    second, the lack of a sufficient number of European member states high-readiness rapid reaction
    forces currently available for deployment in the event of a crisis.
    4. Russia has neither of these problems and can bring overwhelming force and manpower to
    bear upon the region quickly. Russia has the advantage of efficient internal lines of communication
    and a restructured brigade-focused army, which permits rapid deployment. In addition, Russian
    modernisation allows these forces near-peer capabilities in firepower and mobility, as well as air
    defense systems.
    5. The Alliance is taking steps to overcome these critical hurdles. In the fall of 2017, NATO HQ
    announced the creation of two new commands in Norfolk, Virginia and Ulm, Germany. Both will
    assist with the coordination of the movement of troops across the Atlantic and within Europe. In
    addition, the United States is increasing its investment in the European Deterrence Initiative (EDI)
    and Allies are increasingly investing in the personnel and equipment needed to make the current
    rebalancing of conventional forces available for NATO’s defense and deterrence posture. More still
    needs to be done.
    6. This paper continues the Defence and Security Committee’s reporting on NATO’s evolving
    post-2014 adaptation, which has followed the Alliance’s reconsiderations of the proper weight to be
    given to the mix of forces comprising its deterrence and defense posture. NATO’s ability to reinforce
    its conventional capabilities along the eastern flank remains a vital security concern.
    II. NATO’S NEW SECURITY CONTEXT
    7. As this Committee discusses frequently, the Alliance’s eastern and southern flanks are new
    sources of threat, instability and potential conflict. As NATO SACEUR, General Curtis Scaparotti told
    the audience at the Joint Committee Meetings in February: “We now have to manage crises,
    stabilize, and defend in an environment shaped, manipulated and stressed by strategic challenges.
    The two principal challenges we face are Russia and violent extremism. Both have strategic
    destabilization efforts that go after the foundation of our security and target its key institutions. They
    168 DSC 18 E fin
    2
    attempt to turn the strengths of democracy into weaknesses.” The recent buzzword for this in NATO
    HQ briefings is the commitment to 360-degree security in a complex and distributed environment.
    A. NATO-RUSSIA RELATIONS DRIVING EASTERN DEFENSE AND DETERRENCE
    RECALIBRATION
    8. NATO-Russian relations are hovering close to historic lows. Russia’s annexation of Crimea
    unleashed escalating tit-for-tat sanctions, dangerous rhetoric and acrimonious distrust. As a result,
    brinkmanship is at its highest levels since the Cold War (Frear, Kulesa and Kearns, 2017; Boulègue,
    2018).
    9. The size, scope and pace of Russian military modernization, a change in military doctrine and
    aggressive nuclear rhetoric and conventional military actions are critical variables driving NATO’s
    defense and deterrence posture in the eastern part of the Alliance (NATO Warsaw Declaration,
    2016). Russian saber-rattling via ongoing operations in Ukraine and Syria, large-scale ‘snap’ military
    exercises against the "spirit of the Vienna Document" and disruptive military activities in the seas
    along the Alliance’s eastern flank from the Baltic to the Black Sea are also highlighted in the official
    Warsaw Summit Declaration.
    10. The deployment of modern anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities along NATO’s eastern
    flank also gives Russia the potential to reduce or even block Allied freedom of movement within its
    own territories and water spaces.
    11. In the interim, Russia has engaged in aggressive disinformation campaigns via multiple media
    outlets to sow discord and confusion across member states of the Alliance. Russian interference in
    Western democratic processes via election manipulation is a particular point of contention and
    division in many Allies’ domestic political discussions. Cyber interference is now one of the ways in
    which Russia is continuing its long history of political interference. In addition, for years, Russia has
    used its supply and control of natural resources to bully its neighbors.
    12. As the past four years have demonstrated, Russia is ready to use any means available – from
    hybrid tactics, to conventional operations, to nuclear menacing – to leverage its power over the
    Alliance. Ultimately, its goal is to break Allied consensus and reduce Washington’s say in the future
    of European security.
    B. DISRUPTIVE DOCTRINE AND MILITARY MODERNIZATION VIEWED MORE
    CLOSELY
    13. NATO officials point to Russia’s changed military doctrine and military modernization as
    particular drivers of the Alliance’s defense and deterrence posture changes in the eastern territories.
    Doctrinal Shift
    14. In 2014, a few months after the intervention in Ukraine, Russia published its new military
    doctrine. The document marks a fundamental change of direction in Russian foreign policy. While
    Russia’s 2010 military doctrine openly contemplated cooperation with NATO, four years later, the
    updated doctrine considers the Alliance as a de facto competitor.
    15. The 2014 military doctrine repeats much of the language of its 2010 predecessor, but the
    tone is strikingly more hostile toward NATO. While both doctrines list NATO under the category of
    “main external military dangers”, the 2014 publication characterizes the Alliance as acting against
    Russia rather than simply having the desire to do so. In particular, the 2014 doctrine highlights
    NATO’s activities in central and eastern Europe as a threat to Russian national interests (Sinovets
    and Renz, 2015). It notes the intention to increase Russian efforts to protect Russian interests in its
    immediate neighborhood, moving from the Arctic down through eastern Europe to the Black,
    168 DSC 18 E fin
    3
    Mediterranean and Caspian Seas. NATO’s deployment of missile defense systems and the
    implementation of “global strike” are designated as major military dangers for Russia. Additionally,
    the doctrine views the use of information and communication technology for political-military
    purposes as another major threat to the Russian Federation and its allies (Russian Embassy to the
    UK, 2015). As such, the Russian government interprets the Maidan and other “Color” Revolutions
    as attempted or successful external interference to drive regime change by the West, which merits
    reciprocal response, possibly in the form of election meddling in the West.
    16. Russian military modernization, exercises and rhetoric in recent years confirms this shift in
    strategy.
    Russia’s Increasingly Modernized, High-Readiness, Deployable Forces
    17. As previously reported in this Committee, Russia continues its now decade-long concerted
    effort to build a modern, professional and high-readiness suite of armed forces. Increased investment
    is impacting the quality of the forces dramatically.
    18. The Russian army of 2018 is a far cry from that of 2008. After relatively hobbled performances
    in the Caucasus during the first two decades after the demise of the Soviet Union, particularly during
    the Georgian War of 2008, Russia instituted a massive military reform project, termed the “New
    Look.” In addition to structural reforms, a massive arms procurement policy, the State Armaments
    Programme (SAP), has reversed decades of decline and significantly improved the Russian military’s
    ability to sustain firepower and maneuver over time and distance (Giles and Monaghan, 2014; IISS,
    2018). Russian defense spending increased 16-fold in nominal terms from 2000-2015 (IISS, 2015).
    In recent years, Russia has consistently dedicated 3-4% of its GDP toward force modernization
    (IISS, 2018).
    19. Though military spending was somewhat slowed in recent years due to the sanctions-stressed
    Russian economy and depressed global oil and gas prices1
    , Russia now fields very capable land,
    air and sea forces. New Russian equipment has increased the ability for precision strikes at distance,
    state-of-the-art air defense systems and highly-mobile and powerful equipment, for example the
    SU-57 5th
    generation stealth fighter, the T-14 Armata tank and the dual-use Iskander tactical ballistic
    missile systems, among others (IISS, 2018; RAND, 2018).
    20. Restructuring is making the Russian army more brigade-focused, which allows for quicker
    mobility. In addition, the number of volunteer (or contract) soldiers has increased dramatically – up
    to approximately 360,000 out of a total of about 900,000 personnel in the armed services (IISS,
    2018; Golts, 2017). The professionalization of the army allows for a larger number of units to be
    ready for short-notice deployment. Russia has also reinforced its Western Military District, sending
    units from its inner regions and activating new armored, infantry, artillery and air defense formations
    – the Western District now bases up to 400,000 forces, approximately 80,000 of which are within
    close proximity to the Baltic States (RAND, 2018; IISS, 2015).
    21. Finally, the Russian military has been training its forces via large-scale ‘snap’ exercises, which
    emphasize sustaining combined-force operational scenarios over time and distance. These
    exercises have been augmented by the real battlefield experiences of combined-arms operations in
    both Ukraine and Syria, where Russia is not only testing troop readiness, but also the efficacy of its
    new, modern weapons systems.
    1 Oil and gas revenues surpass 35% of Russia’s annual budget, up from only 9% in 2000. See, US Energy
    Information Administration, Russia: International Energy Analysis and Data, October 31, 2017.
    www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=RUS
    168 DSC 18 E fin
    4
    III. CHANGES TO NATO’S DEFENSE AND DETERRENCE POSTURE – EAST
    22. NATO responded to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea by revamping the NATO Response
    Force (NRF) via the Readiness Action Plan (RAP), which sought to scale the number of forces
    capable of responding to a contingency to 40,000 and to make them more flexible and adaptable,
    with the objective of guaranteeing rapid reinforcement and mobility. After its reform, the NRF
    contains air, land, maritime and Special Operations Forces (SOF) components.
    23. The RAP also established the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) as the spearhead
    of the NRF, capable of deploying 5,000 brigade-level troops within two to seven days’ notice to the
    periphery of the Alliance. At the same time, NATO Allies held land, sea and air military exercises,
    from the Baltics to the Black Sea region and established new air and maritime policing missions2
    .
    24. By 2016, Allies recognized the necessity of larger-scale adaptation across the Alliance to
    create a more modern mobile and dynamic deterrence posture to face the realities of a far more
    complex security environment.
    25. In light of continued deterioration in NATO-Russia relations, NATO Allies decided at the
    July 2016 Warsaw Summit to further strengthen the Alliance’s posture in order to deter potential
    adversaries from using force against NATO member countries: the Enhanced Forward Presence in
    Poland and the Baltic States and the Tailored Forward Presence in the Black Sea region are the key
    resulting initiatives in NATO’s eastern territories. During the Warsaw Summit,
    then-US President Barack Obama committed to using US defense funds in reassurance and support
    of the European Allies’ defense efforts, referred to as the European Reassurance Initiative (ERI).
    These initiatives were reaffirmed at the most recent NATO Summit in Brussels in July 2018.
    IV. THE EFP AND TRIPWIRE DETERRENCE
    26. NATO’s EFP consists of the deployment of four rotating multinational battlegroups, stationed
    in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. These forces are over 4,500 strong and are drawn from
    17 different NATO member states under the lead of four framework nations: Canada in Latvia,
    Germany in Lithuania, the United Kingdom in Estonia, and the United States in Poland. The four
    battlegroups are under NATO command as they report to a new multinational division headquarters
    based in the Polish 16th
    Mechanized Division in Elblag, which will in turn answer to the Multinational
    Division Northeast (MND-NE) Headquarters in Szczecin in Poland. The four battlegroups became
    fully operational on 28 August 2017 after the completion of all certification exercises (CERTEX). The
    MND-NE will reach full capability by December 2018.
    27. From a conventional power perspective, the deployed battalions are clearly insufficient to
    defend against a large-scale, conventional Russian offensive, a point driven home to the Defence
    and Security Committee during its table exercise with members of the RAND Corporation research
    staff during its January 2017 visit to Washington.
    28. The table exercise summarized the findings of the RAND Corporation’s study on NATO’s ability
    to repel a concerted attack on the Baltic States. According to the study, the longest it would take
    Russian forces to reach either Tallinn or Riga would be 60 hours. As RAND Corporation researchers
    told Defence and Security Committee members, despite efforts to bolster the Alliance’s deterrence
    posture in the region in terms of forces and equipment, NATO would in fact need about
    35,000 soldiers already on the ground and with much better equipment, such as air defense systems
    and heavy armour, to thwart a serious Russian invasion.
    2 This Committee addressed in greater detail the impact of the decision in a previous report, NATO’s
    Readiness Action Plan: Assurance and Deterrence For The Post-2014 Security Environment, by Xavier
    Pintat, [167 DSCFC 15 E bis].
    168 DSC 18 E fin
    5
    29. As of February 2018, EFP rotating battalions only interpose 4,692 troops, and they are
    distributed across a wide geographic area: in Tapa, Estonia a battlegroup led by the United Kingdom,
    operating with Estonian forces and supported by Denmark and Iceland has 1,001 NATO troops; the
    forces based in Adazi, Latvia number around 1,170 and are led by Canada and supported by Albania,
    Italy, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain; German forces lead a battlegroup of 1,404 troops in
    Rukla, Lithuania, supported by Croatian, French, Dutch and Norwegian forces; and, finally, a US-led
    battlegroup with 1,117 troops from Croatia, Romania and the United Kingdom is based in Orzysz,
    Poland. (See Appendix)
    30. While perhaps insufficient as standalone forces in the instance of a full-scale attack by Russia
    in the region, the EFP serves as a tripwire for a whole-of-alliance Article 5 response in the instance
    of an aggressor’s potential action against any Allied territory and/or populations. Ultimately, the EFP
    seeks to bolster the credibility of the Alliance’s deterrence posture in what had been perceived as a
    strategically vulnerable part of the Alliance.
    V. THE TAILORED FORWARD PRESENCE
    31. At the Warsaw Summit, NATO also established the Tailored Forward Presence in the
    Black Sea region. Based on a proposal by Romania, the TFP bolsters NATO’s presence in the land,
    air and maritime domains (Romania’s Permanent Delegation to NATO, 2017).
    32. The NATO PA was reminded of the geostrategic importance of the Black Sea during the
    2017 Annual Session in Bucharest, where the NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, noted
    the Alliance’s desire to increase its efforts to project stability across the region in response to
    Russia’s illegal activities in Ukraine.
    33. The land component of the TFP includes a multinational brigade in Craiova and a Combined
    Joint Enhanced Training Initiative (CJET). The Multinational NATO South-East Brigade reached
    Initial Operational Capability in April 2017 and was officially inaugurated on 9 October 2017. The
    core of this multinational formation is the Romanian 2nd
    "Rovine" Infantry Brigade, a brigade of up to
    4,000 soldiers3
    , which is complemented by a separate deployment of 900 US troops already in place
    (Emmott, 2017). The CJET is a regional platform for cooperation, aimed at ensuring a continuous
    Allied presence in the region, through participation in exercises and training activities.
    34. The TFP’s maritime component involves integrated training and more exercises with the
    participation of the NATO Standing Naval Forces. An example of the TFP’s recent Black Sea
    maritime efforts is the July 2017 multinational maritime exercise Sea Breeze, which included assets
    from the Standing NATO Maritime Group Two Task Unit Two (SNMG2 TU.02)4
    and other maritime
    assets from both Allied and partner states. The exercise played out both in the Black Sea and on
    Ukrainian territory with the participation of Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, France, Georgia, Greece,
    Italy, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, Romania, Sweden, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom and the
    United States.
    35. The TFP’s air component, NATO’s enhanced Air Policing (eAP), is manned by rotating Allied
    forces patrolling the Romanian and Bulgarian airspace. On 31 December 2017, Canada concluded
    its four-month contribution to the eAP, after having deployed approximately 135 Canadian Armed
    Forces personnel and four CF-188 Hornets at the Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base in Romania. During
    the mission, ATF-Romania, Canadian Air Forces also participated in joint training exercises with their
    3 Also known as Scorpions Brigade, it was previously deployed in Afghanistan and in Iraq.
    4 SNMG2 is one of NATO’s four Standing NATO Maritime Groups (SNMGs). The SNMGs are a
    multinational, integrated maritime force made up of vessels from various Allied countries. These vessels
    (including their helicopters) are permanently available to NATO to perform different tasks ranging from
    participating in exercises to actually intervening in operational missions. http://www.mc.nato.int/media-
    centre/news/2016/nato-and-partner-country-forces-participate-in-exercise-sea-breeze.aspx
    168 DSC 18 E fin
    6
    Romanian counterparts, demonstrating their readiness in terms of medical support, flight safety,
    aircraft maintenance, command and control, and policing (Strong, 2018).
    36. At the NATO defense ministerial meeting held in Brussels on 8-9 November 2017, the
    United Kingdom announced its decision to redeploy four RAF Typhoons to work with Romania to
    police the Black Sea skies on a permanent basis (Wills, 2017). The decision came right after two
    Typhoon jets were scrambled in September to monitor Russian planes heading towards British
    airspace; a similar incident occurred in January 2018 (Hartley-Parkinson, 2018). In July 2017, RAF
    Typhoons scrambled in response to Russian Air Force Tu-22 Backfire strategic bombers heading
    south near NATO air space over the Black Sea.
    US European deterrence initiative
    37. The Trump Administration’s December 2017 National Security Strategy (NSS) defines the
    current international security environment as one of global competition at all levels. In the document,
    Russia is identified as seeking peer-rival status vis-à-vis the United States. The document
    underscores that an important line of effort to counter this is to build stronger alliances. The NSS
    emphasizes Washington’s desire to remain active in Europe: “A strong and free Europe is of vital
    importance to the United States” (NSS, 2017).
    38. US policymakers also worked to dispel any lingering doubts in delegation members’ minds
    about the United States’ Article 5 commitment during the Defence and Security Committee’s most
    recent visit. As Thomas Goffus, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for European and
    NATO policy, noted: “The United States’ Article 5 guarantee is iron-clad.” Mr Goffus continued by
    stating that the United States would focus on the European Deterrence Initiative (EDI) during the
    upcoming summit in Brussels: “Deterrence is what we do together, rather than the US-focused
    European Reassurance Initiative, as the EDI was previously known.”
    39. The EDI includes plans for additional forces, prepositioned brigade sets and other support
    assets in Europe, with the increased number of forces coming from the combination of additional
    forces and the deferral of previously planned force reductions. It also provides support for an
    additional armored brigade combat team (ABCT). The EDI, therefore, funds the maintenance of two
    ABCTs, two Fires Brigades and air defense, engineer, movement control, sustainment and medical
    units in the region, which would be sufficient to sustain a division (US DOD, 2018).
    40. The ERI/EDI has funded a significant increase in US presence in eastern Europe, which
    supports more exercises, infrastructure, equipment prepositioning, and partner capacity
    development efforts. In many ways, the proof of US commitment is in the USD 10+ billion already
    spent or planned to reinforce Allied defense and deterrence in Europe.
    41. The United States recently announced a planned allocation of USD 6.5 billion to the EDI in
    2019, a USD 1.7 billion increase from last year and USD 3.1 billion more than was allocated in 2017.
    42. During the February 2018 NATO PA Joint Committee meetings held in Brussels, briefers
    reiterated the United States’ commitment to Europe is strong and a paralleled surge in defense
    investment is now expected from the United States’ European Allies.
    Exercise Trident Juncture 2018
    43. Trident Juncture 2018 [TRJE18] is scheduled to take place in Norway in October and
    November and will include 40,000 personnel, 130 aircraft and 70 vessels from the 29 NATO
    members, Sweden and Finland. The exercise is comprised of three main phases: deployment and
    redeployment, a live field exercise and a command post exercise. Within the live field component,
    training will be divided between land, air and sea and will take place across Norway and the North
    168 DSC 18 E fin
    7
    and Baltic Seas. The exercise is a major test for the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF),
    which will be certified at the end of TRJE18 (See Appendix I for Map).
    44. Beyond logistical and climatic concerns, organizers also point to Russia as a potential
    challenge. The exercises proximity to Russia and the inclusion of non-NATO members–Sweden and
    Finland–is sure to heighten Moscow’s interest. Norwegian Defense Minister Frank Bakke-Jensen
    stated': “There will be an opportunity for Russia to practice different methods of influence. So, we
    must be prepared to be exposed to false news and influence, both in advance, during the exercise,
    and afterwards” (Taylor, 2018). The Committee will remain focused on the progress and success of
    Trident Juncture 2018.
    VI. BARRIERS TO ENTRY – THE CHALLENGES OF DEFENDING THE EAST
    A. RUSSIAN REGIONAL A2/AD CAPABILITIES
    45. From a conventional tactical point of view, NATO’s tripwire deterrence relies heavily on
    reinforcements being deployed from the center to the periphery of the Alliance on short notice. Even
    if the decision to deploy the NRF and its VJTF is taken in due time, Russia could easily outmatch
    NATO’s forces by simply denying them freedom of movement to and inside the targeted area through
    the effective use of its A2/AD capabilities (Baroudos, 2016).
    46. Russia is in the process of fielding an impressive variety of A2/AD systems in and around the
    Baltic Sea region, the Black Sea, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Barents Sea. When fully
    operational, these systems will substantially limit NATO’s ability to reinforce Allies by land, air and
    sea (NATO STO, 2017). By mid-2016, the Russian Federation had already introduced air defense,
    coastal defense and electronic warfare capabilities as well as ballistic missiles in Kaliningrad, in
    Syria, and later in Crimea (IISS, 2017). Russia’s A2/AD exclusion areas were extended with the
    deployment of the S-400 air defense system to Syria in November 2015 and to Crimea in
    August 2016; each has a range of up to 250 miles. Advanced Russian air defense is also operated
    in cooperation with Belarus and Armenia through the Joint Air Defense System (Weinberger, 2016).
    According to the Lithuanian Minister of Defense Raimundas Karoblis, Russia has also permanently
    deployed Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad (AFP, 2018).
    47. The TFP serves as a means of monitoring the evolution of Russia’s A2/AD capabilities in and
    around the region. This is especially true considering that Romania is home to the Aegis Ashore
    Ballistic Missile Defense site. The NATO Science and Technology Organization (NATO STO) is
    currently conducting an analysis on Russian A2/AD capabilities in order to address existing
    vulnerabilities (NATO STO, 2017).
    48. In particular, given their geographical location, the three battlegroups deployed in the Baltic
    States could be trapped behind the Russian A2/AD wall. As noted by the Defence and Security
    Committee, the only weakness in the Russian A2/AD bubble in the Baltic Sea is the Swedish island
    of Gotland.
    49. In September 2017, Sweden held its biggest military exercise since the early 1990s. Aurora-17
    involved 19,000 Swedish soldiers and a foreign contingent of seven NATO countries (the United
    States, Denmark, Estonia, France, Latvia, Lithuania and Norway), plus Finland. The objective of the
    exercise was the defense of the Swedish island of Gotland from an attack coming from territories
    roughly corresponding to Kaliningrad and Belarus (Winnerstig, 2017). After the exercise, following
    decades of absence, Sweden decided to reinstate a permanent military presence on the island.
    Commenting on this decision, former US Army Europe Commander General Ben Hodges reaffirmed
    Sweden’s and Gotland’s importance for NATO: “You have a strategically very important task here. I
    do not think there is any island anywhere that is more important” (The Local, 2017).
    168 DSC 18 E fin
    8
    B. THE ZAPAD 2017 EXERCISE
    50. Aurora-17 was held a few days before the start of Russia’s large-scale military exercise
    Zapad 2017. While Russia holds yearly large-scale exercises5
    , there are several factors which make
    Zapad 17 worthy of further consideration. The exercise was the first exercise held in the west6
    –
    specifically in Belarus and in Russia’s Kaliningrad oblast – since 2013 and therefore since Russia’s
    intervention in Ukraine and the deteriorated relations with NATO (IISS, 2018).
    51. Russia was deliberately vague about the number of troops and equipment deployed for the
    exercise. Official statements stated 12,700 personnel participated, just short of the 13,000 threshold
    which would require the presence of international observers under the 2011 Vienna Document. While
    Belarus had indeed invited a small number of observers, Russia was vague about the number of
    personnel deployed to Kaliningrad for the exercise. Estimates for the total number of personnel
    deployed in both Belarusian and Russian territory range between 50,000-60,000 (IISS, 2018).
    52. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu described the exercise as a counterinsurgency
    operation against extremist groups benefitting from external support. Russia tested, inter alia, its air
    and missile defense systems, which were successful as air and land reinforcements to the
    hypothetical armed groups operating in the exercise. In addition to conventional components, Russia
    also added asymmetric components to the exercise, testing its ability to repel
    diversionary-reconnaissance groups and counter-electronic warfare. The exercise’s
    counterinsurgency components transitioned to conventional warfare (IISS, 2018; Boulègue, 2017).
    Some analysts have underscored the significance of this, as Russia tends to rehearse tactics it plans
    to deploy later in a real scenario–a striking example being Russia’s use of its Spetsnaz (Special
    Forces) during the 2013 exercise, which were subsequently an essential element to the annexation
    of Crimea (Mizokami, 2017).
    53. The main takeaways from Zapad 2017 are twofold. First, despite NATO’s post-2016
    reassurance efforts, Russia's ambiguity about the size and scope of the exercise was successful in
    rattling many Allied and partner governments, particularly in NATO’s eastern territories. Second,
    Russia showed its capacity to conduct a range of operational theatre tactics, from heavy
    combined-arms to asymmetrical.
    C. THE VOSTOK 2018 EXERCISE
    54. From 11 to 17 September 2018, Russia held its largest military exercise since the
    Soviet Union’s Zapad 81. Minister of Defense and General of the Army Sergei Shoigu claimed
    Vostok 2018 involved approximately “300,000 troops; more than 1000 planes, helicopters, and
    drones; up to 80 combat and logistic naval vessels; and up to 36,000 tanks, armoured-personnel
    carriers, and other vehicles” (Synovitz, 2018). The main exercise centered on Tsugol training facility
    in Zabaykalsky krai, but activities reached across eastern Siberia. General of the Army Valery
    Gerasimov highlighted multiple new technologies and armaments being tested, among them
    upgraded T-80 and new T-90 tanks, the new SU-34 and SU-35 airplanes, Mi-28 and Mi-35 attack
    helicopters, as well as Iskander missile systems (TASS, 2018). The size and scope of the operations
    is a clear demonstration of force by the Kremlin, which hopes to project military capabilities
    comparable to the Soviet Union.
    55. In addition to Russian forces, both Chinese and Mongolian forces participated as well, with the
    People’s Liberation Army sending 3200 troops and 900 pieces of weaponry (Higgins, 2018). China’s
    presence at Vostok 2018 underscores a growing strategic partnership between Moscow and Beijing.
    This could signal a response to the US National Security Strategy, which stated both nations
    5 Russia’s policy is to rotate the regional focus of its exercises yearly; other than Zapad, which literally
    translates as West, there are also Kavkaz (Caucasus), Tsentr (Center) and Vostok (East).
    6 Zapad means west in Russian. Russian exercises rotate annually along cardinal points – as noted
    below, Vostok, or east, is taking place in the fall of 2018.
    168 DSC 18 E fin
    9
    “challenge American power, influence, and interests, attempting to erode American security and
    prosperity;” with both Moscow and Beijing signaling to Washington their desire for closer
    cooperation, particularly at the security level (NSS, 2017). Furthermore, through Vostok 2018 Russia
    and China can mirror NATO’s Trident Juncture exercise and develop the image of their strategic
    partnership as a peer competitor to the West.
    56. Concurrent with Vostok 2018, the Russian Navy reinforced its contingent of warships in the
    eastern Mediterranean. On 1 September 2018, 26 Russian warships and support vessels along with
    36 planes took part in a naval exercise off the coast of Syria (Coker, Saad and Gall, 2018). As
    Russian forces engage in naval training in the eastern Mediterranean, only a few hundred miles
    away, Russian-backed Syrian forces prepare to oust the last vestiges of the opposition forces in Idlib
    province. These military maneuvers near Syria are another way Russia is seeking to project its
    renewed global reach and ambitions.
    57. Despite stalled NATO-Russia cooperation attempts, communication channels remain open
    between the two. To prevent unintended conflict and ease tension, the NATO-Russia Council met in
    May 2018 to discuss Vostok 2018 and Exercise Trident Juncture 18 (RFE/RL, 2018). Additionally,
    military-to-military lines of communication are used to provide transparency in military activities.
    NATO’s Northeastern Flank – A Weakness Exposed
    58. As noted above, in January 2017, RAND Corporation political scientists told the Defence and
    Security Committee that NATO’s capabilities, posture and capacity to defeat a Russian attack on the
    Baltic States with its conventional land and air forces were too weak to return the region to the status
    quo ante without serious conflict escalation. While the EFP, VJTF and US EDI have certainly
    changed the balance of forces calculations, these remain insufficient when considering Russia’s
    advantages that persist, particularly in the Baltic area.
    Russian Local Advantages Remain Significant
    59. NATO’s focus on out-of-area stability operations after the Cold War, particularly after the
    9/11 terrorist attacks, diverted attention from heavy combined-arms capabilities, artillery and missile
    defense (RAND, 2018). This trend, coupled with the cuts to defense spending and investment, has
    hollowed out the conventional capabilities of most European forces, which compromises the ability
    to reinforce or sustain deployed forces7
    . A recent study of the abilities of the British, French and
    German armies to generate and sustain armored brigades in the Baltics found that each would likely
    be able to deploy and sustain a heavy brigade, though at different rates and at great sacrifice
    (Shurkin, 2017). The study found that, of Europe’s three largest armies, only France could deploy
    one battalion within a week and a brigade within a month. Recent reporting on the operability of
    many major German military systems reveals Germany’s contributions are even less likely (Buck,
    2018).
    60. By contrast, Russia has spent the last decade honing the specific capabilities NATO’s
    European and Canadian forces are now lacking. Russia has strengthened and improved its
    combined-armed forces, making them more mobile and lethal. In addition, Russia is exercising these
    capabilities at an accelerated rate and is even testing them in real combat operations in Ukraine and
    Syria. All of these improvements have indeed made Russia a near-peer competitor, as outlined in
    the recent US NSS.
    61. In the Baltic region, Russia maintains a significant advantage in integrated air and missile
    defenses, long-range artillery and heavy armor (IISS, 2015; RAND, 2018). Finally, Russia’s internal
    lines of communication, both road and rail, would allow Moscow to launch and sustain operations in
    the region rapidly.
    7 This topic is examined in detail in the DSCTC report Burden Sharing: New Commitments in a New Era
    [170 DSCTC 18 E rev.1 fin].
    168 DSC 18 E fin
    10
    62. As such, despite recent efforts to change the balance of conventional forces in the Baltics in
    the Allies’ favor, Russia would still dominate any conflict in the short- to medium-term until the
    Alliance would be able to bring, likely across the Atlantic, overwhelming resources to bear upon the
    conflict.
    VII. ADDRESSING NATO’S KEY REMAINING HURDLES TO MILITARY MOBILITY AND
    DEFENSE INVESTMENTS
    63. A robust and effective defense of all of NATO’s territories and populations is essential. To get
    there an effective deterrence posture must be in place to dissuade any potential adversary from even
    considering an attack anywhere within the Alliance at any given moment. To overcome the
    challenges to an effective defense and deterrence policy for NATO’s eastern territories, national
    Parliaments need to find the ways and means to address the following challenges.
    Military Mobility and Bureaucratic Delays
    64. During the Cold War, ensuring the mobility of troops and equipment was a priority and was
    reviewed during frequent exercises. Cold War infrastructure included readiness for support,
    command and control, as well as for destruction, denial and diversion. It also incorporated
    multi-layered communication lines, hardened storage for ammunition and fuel and a central and
    northern European pipeline to bring fuel to forward operating bases. While some of this infrastructure
    still exists today, it only reaches the frontier of NATO’s Cold War borders (Jacobson, 2018). As NATO
    moved its borders further east, attention to infrastructure and connectivity with the new members did
    not follow (Novaky, 2017). Today, NATO faces two main military mobility problems; the first concerns
    infrastructure itself, the other legal regulations.
    65. Today, the Alliance has significant infrastructural deficiencies. First, it lacks the necessary
    infrastructure to transport modern military equipment at speed over long distances due to critical
    shortages in rolling stock to load and unload along the rail lines of communication. In addition, there
    is insufficient material for military bridging. Infrastructure in certain states is not physically capable of
    sustaining the weight of state-of-the-art military vehicles and is in urgent need of modernization. In
    the Baltics, for example, the rail gauge narrows at the Polish border (Jacobson, 2018).
    66. The Alliance also faces significant bureaucratic delays at member state borders when clearing
    the transfer of equipment and forces. US General Ben Hodges (Ret.) was particularly outspoken
    about his unhappiness with the current bureaucratic ordeal concerning the movement of troops at
    border crossings. He noted the irony of having very high readiness forces and then not being able
    to move them fast enough because of bureaucracy (Schultz, 2017). During the NATO PA February
    Joint Committee Meetings, members learned cumbersome bureaucratic regulations cause
    unnecessary delays, even in key areas of vulnerability. It was estimated that, even working 24 hours
    a day and not taking unforeseen problems into account, it could take weeks to move a considerable
    number of vehicles across some borders in Europe (Schultz, 2017).
    67. Establishing a more coherent and straightforward legal framework within the Alliance – often
    informally referred to as a “Military Schengen Zone” – should go hand in hand with infrastructure
    modernization. At this point in time, the above-mentioned troop and equipment border transfer
    requests can even be unexpectedly denied (EEAS, November 2017). While the issue has been badly
    neglected, there are consistent joint efforts that should be able to deliver significant results in a
    relatively short period of time.
    168 DSC 18 E fin
    11
    The Example of the Suwalki Corridor
    68. The thin strip of land connecting Poland and Lithuania is increasingly referred to as the Suwalki
    corridor. Its location between the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus makes it a potential
    choke point between the Baltic States and the rest of the Alliance’s eastern territories. The Suwalki
    corridor bundles the key challenges to building and maintaining an effective deterrence in NATO’s
    eastern territories: infrastructural deficiencies, red tape and a critical imbalance of forces and
    equipment, as well as insufficient storage facilities to handle any potential surge in Allied military
    activities in the region.
    69. In the event of a contingency in the Baltic region, the Suwalki corridor would become a lifeline
    between the Baltic States and Poland. As such, the Alliance must have in place an effective early
    warning system to detect a possible incursion, developed infrastructure for the quick deployment of
    troops, and the necessary manpower ready to defend the territory. As noted in this report, it currently
    does not.
    Initial Steps Taken: Adapting NATO’s Structure
    70. In July 2018, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg confirmed the addition of two new
    commands to update the Alliance's force structure. First, the NATO Joint Force Command for the
    Atlantic will be stationed in Norfolk, Virginia to assist not only with increasing security in the Atlantic,
    but also to coordinate the transfer of reinforcements across the Atlantic in the event of a contingency
    in Europe. Another new command to assist with the logistical and bureaucratic hurdles associated
    with moving troops and supplies across Europe will be built in Ulm, Germany. Further, a new Cyber
    Operations Centre will also be established at the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe
    (SHAPE) in Mons, Belgium.
    71. Allied efforts in the North Atlantic are also increasing to reflect the rapidly evolving security
    environment in the region and the need for increased presence to protect vital assets and key
    transatlantic sea lanes. In August 2018 the US Navy reactivated the Second Fleet, which will serve
    as a deterrent to increased Russian activity along the United States’ eastern coast and across the
    North Atlantic. The UK Navy similarly announced an increased presence in the North Atlantic with
    the stated objective of protecting transatlantic submarine communication cables.
    72. Further, to address the challenges of reinforcement, the Alliance announced a new initiative at
    the July Summit in Brussels – the NATO Readiness Initiative, often referred to as the "30-30-30-30
    plan". The new initiative requires NATO to have available, from a common pool of forces, “an
    additional 30 major naval combatants, 30 heavy or medium maneuver battalions, and 30 kinetic air
    squadrons, with enabling forces” ready to deploy within 30 days or less of being put on alert. The
    implementation of the plan can be understood as a challenge to all NATO members to meet the
    demands of the Alliance’s new defense and deterrence posture.
    73. In addition, at the Brussels Summit, Allies also endorsed the Enablement Plan for SACEUR’s
    Area of Responsibility. While short on details of how it will be implemented at the national level, the
    plan commits nations to work assiduously to “improve the necessary legislation and procedures,
    enhance command and control, and increase transport capabilities” (NATO Brussels Declarations,
    2018). As such, the Summit declarations note the need to address the abovementioned key
    challenges currently impeding the efficient transfer of equipment and personnel across the Alliance.
    The remaining question is the degree to which each nation, particularly those in the eastern
    territories, will take up the challenge of implementing the Enablement Plan.
    168 DSC 18 E fin
    12
    Increased NATO-EU Cooperation Needed To Help Solve The Problem
    74. In December 2017, addressing existing barriers to military mobility at the legal and
    infrastructural levels was identified as an area of cooperation between the EU and NATO (Council
    of the EU, 2017). Within the EU, military mobility is likely to become the first flagship initiative of the
    EU-led Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), as EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs
    and Security Policy Federica Mogherini vows to have an action plan for military mobility ready by
    March 2018 (European Council, 2017; EU Commission, November 2017).
    75. The European Union identified improving the resilience of transport infrastructure as a key
    element in countering hybrid threats; as such, it is a fundamental part of the EU-NATO cooperation
    framework (EU Commission, July 2017). Cooperation with the EU is necessary in order to map out
    existing legislation concerning the movement of troops. Indeed, military equipment is currently
    excluded by the customs union; as such, military mobility is still regulated by a complex mix of NATO,
    EU and national regulations, which leads to uncertainties and significant delays (Fiott, 2017).
    76. In March 2018, the European Commission published an Action Plan on Military Mobility to
    address regulatory hurdles and infrastructure deficiencies delaying military mobility across the
    European Union (European Commission, 2018). Most of the deadlines for key EU projects are set
    for the end of 2018 and 2019. An important first step set for the end of 2018 is the streamlining of
    custom formalities for military operations. Additionally, through the European Reassurance Initiative,
    the United States has invested in specific logistical improvement, such as the modernization of
    railheads to decrease unloading times for tanks in eastern Europe (Peel and Acton, 2018). In fact,
    infrastructure modernization to improve military readiness is identified as a key objective of the EDI,
    which dedicates USD 337.8 million of its 2018 budget to it and over USD 800 million in 2019.
    77. Although infrastructure improvements are a major issue across the Alliance, there have been
    some positive developments in eastern Europe. For example, renovations continue along European
    Route E67, which runs from Prague to Helsinki by way of Poland, Lithuania and Estonia. Still,
    progress has been rather piecemeal; despite some localized advancements on the Via Baltica
    expressway, the project is years away from completion. Bottlenecks in the Suwalki corridor in both
    roads and rail leave the whole corridor strategically vulnerable (Hodges, Bugajski and Doran, 2018).
    78. Other infrastructure projects undertaken in the Baltic region include expanding the Polish port
    of Gdansk. The EU Transportation Coordinating Committee recently approved EUR 1.9 billion for
    the modernization of facilities, the dredging of the port and improved road and rail connections
    (Maritime Journal, 2016). This will make the port more accessible to larger vessels and improve the
    transit of personnel and military supplies. In light of Russia’s use of natural gas as a political tool in
    eastern Europe, important steps forward for regional energy security are being taken. Polish and
    Lithuanian gas transmission operators have approved a grid connection agreement this year, which,
    when completed in 2022, will provide a strategic energy link between Poland and the Baltic States
    (Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Lithuania, 2018).
    168 DSC 18 E fin
    13
    VIII. CONCLUSIONS
    79. Certainly, conventional forces are only a part of NATO’s defense and deterrence posture.
    NATO’s nuclear forces are also a core component of the Alliance’s overall capabilities. The purpose
    of any deterrence posture, however, is to convince an opponent that any potential benefit to be
    gained from a military action would be wiped out by the overwhelming costs of such an action –
    thereby making the action unthinkable.
    80. The conventional imbalance in NATO’s eastern territories provides an unnecessary
    hypothetical temptation. If Russia were to test Alliance resolve, quick escalation would be disastrous.
    81. Much can and should be done to bolster the balance of conventional forces in the region to
    erase any such temptation, no matter how slight or improbable it may be.
    82. NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence and Tailored Forward Presence revolve around three
    central messages. The first is signaling Alliance solidarity in the face of Russian regional aggression
    and threats. The transatlantic security imperative of the new defense and deterrence efforts in the
    region is underscored by Canada and the United States leading the multinational battlegroups in
    Latvia and Poland. The second is the resolve to deter further aggression by demonstrating more
    robust capabilities in the region. The third is NATO’s resolve to counter a limited incursion in the
    area.
    83. These messages can be strengthened in the following ways; Considerations for NATO
    Parliamentarians:
    84. First, the deployment of additional ground forces and equipment to the east remains an
    imperative. By doing so, the mobilization dilemma identified above would be mitigated: the increased
    numbers of troops and weapons stocks would greatly reduce deployment times.
    85. Second, all Allies can support the NATO-EU initiatives to strengthen infrastructure and reduce
    legal and bureaucratic hurdles to military equipment and personnel transfers to the east. NATO
    parliamentarians can act domestically in their own Parliaments to move such legislation and funding
    initiatives forward. Such investments would clearly have an impact ranging far wider than just the
    transfer of military materiel – better roads, bridges, communication infrastructure, ports and airports,
    etc. can all have far-ranging economic impacts and demonstrate the political will to share Allied
    burdens.
    86. The burden-sharing debate often overlooks the positive security and defense impacts such
    investments can have, not to mention the political will to demonstrate unity of purpose by regional
    Allies to "do their part". As Lieutenant General Carsten Jacobson told the delegation at the February
    2018 Joint Committee Meetings: “When vital equipment cannot cross borders without intense
    bureaucracy and lengthy procedures – and we have seen delays not just for days, but for weeks in
    recent exercises – we simply cannot show Alliance capabilities across Alliance territory. This subject
    needs to be addressed urgently; it is a political task.”
    87. Third, European Allies should have faster deployment times than those outlined above. They
    should also have the resources necessary to sustain these deployments. All Allies should be able to
    contribute in a substantive way. Targeted investments to address force deficiencies are an
    imperative.
    88. Regional Allies also need to invest in modern low-tier air defense systems, capable
    intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) systems, sensors and radars to give Allies a
    more complete air picture, as well as in defense capabilities that are more difficult to track, such as
    man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS). In the absence of larger air defense systems,
    168 DSC 18 E fin
    14
    investing in capabilities like Stinger missiles would be a clear means to change Russian calculations
    about their ability to dominate the air and ground if there is a contingency, even in the short-term.
    89. Fourth, Allies must invest in the means to overwhelm and degrade Russia’s A2/AD systems.
    This means investing in 5th
    generation fighters like the F-35, jamming systems, as well as
    longer-range precision missile systems to target and destroy any Russian attempts to degrade the
    Allies’ ability to operate inside Allied territory.
    90. Finally, as mentioned in the 2017 Sub-Committee on Transatlantic Defence and Security
    Cooperation (DSCTC) report on burden sharing, the North Atlantic Council determined that the
    Alliance requires a new, modern, dynamic and mobile deterrence posture. The necessary means to
    implement this new posture must follow. This translates to increased Allied defense spending in the
    right kind of equipment and force structure to ensure NATO can respond to today’s evolving security
    challenges and threats to international stability. Ultimately, however, NATO’s ability to do so will be
    addressed only when the political will is present for a whole-of-Alliance solution to deliver the
    necessary capabilities in terms of personnel and resources.
    168 DSC 18 E fin
    15
    APPENDICES
    NATO Enhanced Forward Presence
    Map of Exercise Trident Juncture 18
    168 DSC 18 E fin
    16
    The Suwalki Corridor
    168 DSC 18 E fin
    17
    BIBLIOGRAPHY
    ACT Media, “Romania is hosting NATO Headquarters Multinational Brigade South-East located in
    Craiova”, 10 October 2017, https://actmedia.eu/daily/romania-is-hosting-nato-headquarters-
    multinational-brigade-south-east-located-in-craiova/71895
    Agence France–Press , “Russia Deploying Ballistic Missiles to Baltic Enclave: Lithuania”,
    5 February 2018, Military.com, www.military.com/daily-news/2018/02/05/russia-deploying-
    ballistic-missiles-baltic-enclave-lithuania.html
    Barojan, Donara, “#BalticBrief: Enhanced Anti-NATO Narratives Target Enhanced Forward
    Presence”, Medium, 7 February 2018, https://medium.com/dfrlab/balticbrief-enhanced-anti-
    nato-narratives-target-enhanced-forward-presence-fdf2272a8992
    Baroudos Constance, “Why NATO Should Fear Russia's A2/AD Capabilities (And How to
    Respond)”, The National Interest, 21 September 2016, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-
    buzz/why-nato-should-fear-russias-a2-ad-capabilities-how-respond-17776
    Barret, Richard, “Beyond the Caliphate: Foreign Fighters and the Threat of Returnees”, The Soufan
    Center, October 2017, http://thesoufancenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Beyond-the-
    Caliphate-Foreign-Fighters-and-the-Threat-of-Returnees-TSC-Report-October-2017.pdf
    Bianchi, Margherita, Lasconjarias, Guillaume and Marrone, Alessandro, “Projecting Stability in
    NATO’s Southern Neighbourhood”, NATO Defence College, Conference Report no. 03/17,
    July 2017, www.ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?icode=1076
    Boulègue, Mathieu, “Five things to know about the Zapad-2017 Military Exercise”, Chatham House,
    25 September 2017
    Boulègue, Mathieu, "Russia's Vostok Exercises Were Both Serious Planning and a Show," Chatham
    House, 17 September 2018.
    Buck, Tobias, “German Military: Combat Ready?”, Financial Times, 15 February 2018.
    www.ft.com/content/36e2cd40-0fdf-11e8-940e-08320fc2a277
    Coker, Margaret; Saad, Hwaida; Gall, Carlotta, “In Idlib, Final Offensive in Syrian War May Come at
    Horrific Cost,” The New York Times, 2 September 2018,
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/02/world/middleeast/syria-idlib-assad.html.
    Council of the European Union, “Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) first collaborative
    PESCO projects - Overview “, December 2017,
    www.consilium.europa.eu/media/32079/pesco-overview-of-first-collaborative-of-projects-for-
    press.pdf
    Dickstein, Corey, “Pentagon seeks $686.1 billion to 'restore and rebuild' U.S. military”, Stars and
    Stripes, 12 February 2018, www.stripes.com/pentagon-seeks-686-1-billion-to-restore-and-
    rebuild-u-s-military-1.511344
    EDA, “EDA provides expert input for action plan on military mobility”, 10 November 2017,
    www.eda.europa.eu/info-hub/press-centre/latest-news/2017/11/10/eda-provides-expert-
    input-for-action-plan-on-military-mobility
    EEAS, “EU and NATO cooperation to expand to new areas, including counter-terror; military mobility;
    women, peace and security”, 6 December 2017,
    https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/36854/eu-and-nato-
    cooperation-expand-new-areas-including-counter-terror-military-mobility-women_en
    EEAS, “Joint Communication to the European Parliament and the Council - Improving Military
    Mobility in the European Union, 10 November 2017,
    https://eeas.europa.eu/sites/eeas/files/joint_communication_to_the_european_parliament_an
    d_the_council_-_improving_military_mobility_in_the_european_union.pdf ‘
    Embassy of the Russian Federation to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern
    Ireland, "The Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation," 29 June 2015,
    https://rusemb.org.uk/press/2029
    Emmott, Robin, “NATO launches Black Sea force as latest counter to Russia”, Reuters, 9 October
    2017, https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN1CE0MJ-OCATP
    European Commission, “The European Union is stepping up efforts to improve military mobility”,
    10 November 2017, http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-4385_en.htm
    168 DSC 18 E fin
    18
    European Commission, “Security and defence: Significant progress to enhance Europe's resilience
    against hybrid threats – more work ahead”, 19 July 2017, http://europa.eu/rapid/press-
    release_IP-17-2064_en.htm
    European Commission, "Joint Communication to the European Parliament and the Council on the
    Action Plan on Military Mobility," 28 March 2018,
    https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/2018-military_mobility_action_plan.pdf
    European Council, “Defence cooperation: Council adopts conclusions on EU-NATO cooperation,
    endorsing common set of new proposals for further joint work”, 5 December 2017,
    www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/12/05/defence-cooperation-council-
    adopts-conclusions-on-eu-nato-cooperation-endorsing-common-set-of-new-proposals-for-
    further-joint-work/
    Fiott, Daniel, “Towards a ‘military Schengen’?”, EUISS, 27 November 2017,
    www.iss.europa.eu/content/towards-%E2%80%98military-schengen%E2%80%99-0
    Fitzpatrick, Mark, “Putin’s new big nuclear buttons”, IISS, 1 March 2018,
    www.iiss.org/en/iiss%20voices/blogsections/iiss-voices-2018-2623/february-704f/putin-big-
    nuclear-button-cb67
    Frear, Thomas ; Kulesa, Lukasz and Kearns, Ian, “ Dangerous Brinkmanship: Close Military
    Encounters Between Russia and the West in 2017”, European Leadership Network,
    November 2017, https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/wp-
    content/uploads/2017/10/Dangerous-Brinkmanship.pdf
    Galeotti, Mark, “The truth about Russia's defence budget”, ECFR, 24 March 2017,
    www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_truth_about_russias_defence_budget_7255
    Giles, Keir and Monaghan, Andrew, “Russian Military Transformation – Goal in Sight,” The Letort
    Papers, Carlisle, Strategic Studies Institute, 2014
    Golts, Aleksander, “How Many Soldiers Does Russia Have?”, Eurasia Daily Monitor, vol 14,
    issue 144, The Jamestown Foundation, 8 November 2017.
    https://jamestown.org/program/many-soldiers-russia/
    Hartley-Parkinson, Richard, “RAF Typhoon fighter jets scrambled to intercept Russian planes
    heading to UK”, Metro, 15 January 2018, http://metro.co.uk/2018/01/15/raf-typhoon-fighter-
    jets-scrambled-intercept-russian-planes-heading-uk-7230116
    Higgins, Andrew, “300,000 Troops and 900 Tanks: Russia’s Biggest Military Drills Since the Cold
    War,” The New York Times, 3 September 2018.
    Hodges, Ben; Bugajski, Janusz; Doran, Peter B, “Securing the Suwalki Corridor: Strategy, Statecraft,
    Deterrence and Defense,” Center for European Policy Analysis, July 2018,
    https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/644196_e63598001eb54f8387b10bc0b30c5873.pdf.
    IISS (The International Institute for Strategic Studies), The Military Balance 2018, London:
    Routledge, February 2018
    IISS (The International Institute for Strategic Studies), The Military Balance 2017, London:
    Routledge, February 2017
    IISS (The International Institute for Strategic Studies), The Military Balance 2018, London:
    Routledge, February 2015
    Jacobson, Carsten, Presentation on “Enhancing NATO’s Capability to meet Current and Future
    Security Threats and the Need for a ‘Military Schengen Zone’”, NATO PA, 2018 Joint
    Committee meetings
    Kamp, Karl-Heinz, “Why NATO Needs a New Strategic Concept”, CSS Zurich, 9 December 2016,
    www.css.ethz.ch/en/services/digital-library/articles/article.html/b82e0322-3507-4360-b25f-
    aeccdbe5e6f5
    Kristensen, Kristian Søby and Laura Schousboe, “How to Step Up NATO’s Fight against Terrorism”,
    War on the Rocks, 12 September 2017, https://warontherocks.com/2017/09/how-to-step-up-
    natos-fight-against-terrorism/
    Lasconjarias, Guillaume and Lukáš Dyčka, “Dealing with the Russian Bear: Improving NATO's
    Response to Moscow's Military Exercise Zapad 2017”, IAI, 12 October 2017,
    www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/dealing-russian-bear-improving-natos-response-moscows-
    military-exercise-zapad-2017
    168 DSC 18 E fin
    19
    Luik, Juri and Henrik Praks, “Boosting the Deterrent Effect of Allied Enhanced Forward Presence”,
    ICDS, May 2017,
    www.icds.ee/fileadmin/media/icds.ee/doc/ICDS_Policy_Paper_Boosting_the_Deterrent_Effe
    ct_of_Allied_eFP.pdf
    Majumdar, Dave, “Did Russia Just Cut Its Defense Budget by a Whopping 25 Percent?”, The
    National Interest, 20 March 2017, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/did-russia-just-cut-
    its-defense-budget-by-whopping-25-19831
    Maritime Journal, “EU Funding for Gdansk Expansion,” 25 July 2016,
    http://www.maritimejournal.com/news101/marine-civils/port,-harbour-and-marine-
    construction/eu-funding-for-gdansk-expansion.
    Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Lithuania, “Green light is on for a strategic gas pipeline between
    Lithuania and Poland,” 24 May 2018, https://enmin.lrv.lt/en/news/green-light-is-on-for-a-
    strategic-gas-pipeline-between-lithuania-and-poland.
    Missile Defense Project, “Russia Officially Unveils Two New Nuclear Weapons”, CSIS, 1 March
    2018, https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-officially-unveils-two-new-nuclear-missiles/
    Mizokami, Kyle, “Why Russia's Massive Zapad Military Exercises Scare the World”, The National
    Interest, 16 April 2017, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-russias-massive-zapad-
    military-exercises-scare-the-world-20199
    NATO Science&Technology Organization, “Analysis of Anti-Access Area Denial (A2AD)”, 2017,
    www.sto.nato.int/Lists/test1/activitydetails.aspx?ID=16361
    NATO, “Assistance for the refugee and migrant crisis in the Aegean Sea”, 26 June 2016,
    www.nato.int/cps/ua/natohq/topics_128746.htm
    NATO, “NATO-Russia Relations: The Background,” April 2018,
    https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2018_04/20180426_1805-NATO-
    Russia_en.pdf.
    NATO, “Relations with Iraq”, last updated 20 February 2018,
    www.nato.int/cps/su/natohq/topics_88247.htm
    NATO Warsaw Declaration, July 2016,
    https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_133168.htm
    NATO, "Brussels Summit Declaration," Issued on 11 July 2018,
    https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_156624.htm
    NSS, "National Security Strategy of the United States of America," December 2017,
    https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf
    Nimmo, Ben, “Russian Narratives on NATO’s Deployment”, Medium, 11 April 2017.
    https://medium.com/dfrlab/russian-narratives-on-natos-deployment-616e19c3d194
    Novaky, Niklas, “The Commission’s military mobility proposal: a good first step”, Wilfred Martens
    Center, 21 November 2017, www.martenscentre.eu/blog/commissions-military-mobility-
    proposal-good-first-step
    Peel, Michael and Bond, David, “Nato sounds alarm on Russian submarine activity, Financial Times,
    22 December 2017, www.ft.com/content/40236a0a-e711-11e7-97e2-916d4fbac0da
    Peel, Michael; Acton, Michael, “Red tape, radios and railway gauges: Nato’s battle to deter Russia,”
    Financial Times, 2 January 2018, https://www.ft.com/content/90345ab8-dff5-11e7-a8a4-
    0a1e63a52f9c.
    Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “NATO Warns Russia on ‘Malign Activties and Briefs on War
    Games,” 31 May 2018, https://www.rferl.org/a/nato-russia-us-malign-activities-war-games-us-
    norway-brussels/29262228.html.
    Rand Corporation, “Assessing the Conventional Force Imbalance in Europe”, Boston, Scott et al.,
    2018, https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2402.html
    Romania's Permanent Delegation to NATO, “Collective Defense”, last updated 21 April 2017,
    https://nato.mae.ro/en/node/1030
    Royal Air Force, “RAF Typhoon scramble in response to Russian aircraft over the Black Sea”, 25 July
    2017, www.raf.mod.uk/news/archive/raf-typhoon-scramble-in-response-to-russian-aircraft-
    over-the-black-sea-25072017
    168 DSC 18 E fin
    20
    Schultz, Teri, “NATO in Europe needs 'military Schengen' to rival Russian mobility, DW,
    12 September 2017, www.dw.com/en/nato-in-europe-needs-military-schengen-to-rival-
    russian-mobility/a-40470302
    Shlapak, David and Michael Johnson, “Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO’s Eastern Flank:
    Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics”, RAND, 2016.
    www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1253.html
    Shurkin, Michael, “The Abilities of the British, French, and German Armies to Generate and Sustain
    Armored Brigades in the Baltics”, RAND, 2017
    Sinovets, Polina and Renz, Bettina, “Russia’s 2014 Military Doctrine and beyond: threat perceptions,
    capabilities and ambitions”, NATO Defence College, Research Paper no. 117, July 2015
    Standish, Reid, “Finland opens a new center to fight 'hybrid threats' from Russia and beyond”,
    GlobalPost, 3 October 2017, www.pri.org/stories/2017-10-03/finland-opens-new-center-fight-
    hybrid-threats-russia-and-beyond
    Standish, Reid, “Inside a European Center to Combat Russia’s Hybrid Warfare”, Foreign Policy,
    18 January 2018, http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/18/inside-a-european-center-to-combat-
    russias-hybrid-warfare/
    Strong, Captain Mathew, “Canada’s Air Task Force concludes its NATO enhanced Air Policing
    mission in Romania”, Government of Canada, last updated 19 January 2018, https://ml-fd.caf-
    fac.ca/en/2018/01/9483
    Synovitz, Ron. “Russia’s Claims of ‘Biggest-Ever’ War Games Seen As Sending A Message To The
    West,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 10 September 2018, https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-
    s-biggest-ever-war-games-claims-seen-as-message-to-west/29482293.html.
    Taylor, Gerard, “Trident Juncture will be NATO’s mega exercise in Norway,” Norway Today, 7
    September 2018, http://norwaytoday.info/news/trident-juncture-will-natos-mega-exercise-
    norway/.
    TASS, “Russia to shell out $46 bln on defense spending in 2018”, 27 December 2017,
    http://tass.com/defense/982575
    TASS, "Vostok 2018 drills involving 300,000 troops kick off in Russia," 11 September 2018,
    http://tass.com/defense/1020919
    The Local, “No island as important as Gotland, says US military chief”, 24 July 2017,
    www.thelocal.se/20170724/no-island-as-important-as-gotland-says-us-military-chief-ben-
    hodges-europe-nato-russia-sweden
    Touma, Ana Maria, “NATO Inaugurates New Black Sea Force in Romania”, Balkan Insight,
    9 October 2017, www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/nato-inaugurates-black-sea-force-to-deter-
    russia-10-09-2017
    UNIAN, "Ukraine boosts security on borders ahead of Zapad-2017 military drills”, 7 September 2017,
    www.unian.info/politics/2120409-ukraine-boosts-security-on-borders-ahead-of-zapad-2017-
    military-drills-president.html
    United States Department of Defense, “European Deterrence Initiative, Department of Defense
    Budget Fiscal Year 2019”, Office of the Undersecretary of Defense (Comptroller),
    February 2018,
    http://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2019/fy2019_EDI_JBook.p
    df
    Weinberger Kathleen, “Russian Anti-Access and Area Denial (A2AD) Range”, Institute for the Study
    of War, 29 August 2016, www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-anti-access-and-
    area-denial-a2ad-range
    Williams, Matthias and Pavel Polityuk, “Russia left troops in Belarus after wargames: Ukraine”,
    Reuters, 29 September 2017, www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-army/russia-left-
    troops-in-belarus-after-wargames-ukraine-idUSKCN1C4234
    Wills, Ella, “RAF Typhoon jets to be deployed to Romania amid Russia tensions”, Evening Standard,
    8 November 2017, www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/raf-typhoon-jets-to-be-deployed-to-romania-
    amid-russia-tensions-a3685696.html
    Winnerstig, Mike, “The Strategic Ramifications of the Aurora 17 Exercise in Sweden”, ICDS,
    2 October 2017, www.icds.ee/blog/article/the-strategic-ramifications-of-the-aurora-17-
    exercise-in-sweden-1/ ________________
    DEFENCE AND SECURITY
    COMMITTEE (DSC)
    Sub-Committee on Future Security
    and Defence Capabilities (DSCFC)
    NATO SPECIAL
    OPERATIONS FORCES IN
    THE MODERN SECURITY
    ENVIRONMENT
    Report
    by Madeleine MOON (United Kingdom)
    Rapporteur
    169 DSCFC 18 E rev.1 fin | Original: English |18 November 2018
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    I. INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................................................1
    II. TODAY’S SECURITY ENVIRONMENT – OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES
    FOR SOF..........................................................................................................................4
    III. SOF IN THE MODERN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT..........................5
    ALLIED SOF AND COUNTERTERRORISM.....................................................................5
    IV. SOF AND PARLIAMENTARY OVERSIGHT .....................................................................9
    SELECTED OVERVIEW OF ALLIED PARLIAMENTARY SOF OVERSIGHT.................10
    V. CONCLUSIONS: WAYS FORWARD FOR NATO PARLIAMENTARIAN
    CONSIDERATION..........................................................................................................12
    BIBLIOGRAPHY.............................................................................................................14
    169 DSCFC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    1
    I. INTRODUCTION
    1. NATO Special Operations Forces (SOF) are executing a range of critical missions in today’s
    complex international security environment. For example, a coalition of international Special Forces
    is supporting local forces in the fight against Daesh, and other Special Operations task groups
    (SOTGs) are embedded across the Middle East and Africa and work to help forces focus on small
    unit tactics, techniques, and procedures as well as military operations. Beyond the struggle to
    counter violent extremism, NATO SOF are also working to help Allies maintain an edge over rising
    near-peer threats.
    2. Small in footprint and highly specialised, Special Forces can be seen as a precision instrument
    at the disposal of nation states seeking to perform a range of difficult tasks in an increasingly
    challenging operational environment and beyond. Further, as this report will document, Special
    Forces also provide plenty of other benefits to achieve policy goals at a fraction of the cost with a
    relatively high rate of success.
    3. A key part of today and tomorrow’s international security environment is playing itself out in a
    grey zone of competition between NATO and its principal foes. This murky terrain below the
    threshold of war is one not particularly suited to NATO’s strengths. Robust, capable, and
    interoperable Alliance Special Forces will be an essential element to a whole-of-Alliance strategy to
    overcome the challenge.
    4. NATO Special Operations Headquarters (NSHQ) is working to train, advise, and assist NATO
    Allies and partners to achieve this, but much more can be done at the Alliance and national levels to
    increase resilience and heighten situational awareness. NSHQ is still short of the resources
    necessary to accomplish the increasing number of tasks it is being assigned. More broadly, Allies
    across the board are seeking to develop increasingly capable and effective Special Operations
    Forces to hone their situational awareness and response capabilities. Despite their efforts, however,
    research indicates that most Allied SOF are neither large enough nor sufficiently resourced to
    accomplish the accelerating pace of tasks assigned to them, particularly those requiring effective
    strategic reach outside of Europe. Parliamentary attention to the allocation of adequate funding to
    make national Special Forces fit for purpose in today’s security environment is essential if we are to
    remedy this problem.
    5. This report examines the new, dynamic role Special Forces play in today’s operations, training,
    and planning. Ultimately, the report will seek to broaden the NATO member states’ legislators’
    understanding of the costs and benefits of increased use of SOF in a challenging security
    environment. As is clear from this report, parliamentarians need to think seriously about the role and
    use of SOF, as well as understand the hurdles to the appropriate interagency cooperation necessary
    to address critical issues such as resourcing and operational oversight.
    DEFINING SOF: WHAT DO SOF ACTUALLY DO?
    6. Special Forces are by nature designed to respond to complex and dynamic security missions.
    They are expected to innovate quickly enough to stay ahead of the most difficult security challenges
    facing any state. Today, they are a vital element of most Allies’ armed forces, yet their duties and
    tasks are often poorly understood. NATO Allied Joint Doctrine for Special Operations defines SOF
    as engaged in “military activities conducted by specially designated, organised, selected, trained,
    and equipped forces using unconventional techniques and modes of employment". The definition
    goes on to specify: "These activities may be conducted across the full range of military operations,
    to help achieve the desired end-state. Politico-military considerations may require clandestine or
    covert techniques and the acceptance of a degree of political or military risk not associated with
    operations by conventional forces. Special Operations deliver strategic or operational-level results
    or are executed where significant political risk exists."
    169 DSCFC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    2
    7. Three broad categories can encapsulate Special Forces’ principal tasks: Military Assistance
    (MA), Special Reconnaissance (SR), and Direct Action (DA) – these mission sets are common to all
    NATO member state SOF.
    8. Military Assistance consists of training, educating, advising, and supporting partners (most
    often in the partner’s area of responsibility). Military assistance is often provided by the Allied power
    until the partner is able to carry out its tasks independently. MA activities, however, can lead to cross-
    pollination, as they can bring new information/insight into an area for both special reconnaissance
    and direct action tasks. Special Reconnaissance tasks are essentially intelligence, surveillance and
    reconnaissance (ISR) activities to inform areas or mission sets that are extremely dangerous, hostile,
    or politically sensitive. Direct Action can be defined as any action taken by Allied SOF – from
    precision strike operations or targeted killings to arrests of war criminals, etc. – to complete a mission.
    9. In addition to the above, Special Forces often play a key role in several other types of tasks
    from counterinsurgency (CI), counterterrorism (CT) or chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear
    (CBRN) defence to hostage rescue/release operations.
    MODERN SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES
    10. The year 2001 marked the start of a new era for Special Forces across the Alliance. The United
    States boosted SOF capabilities and used them to spearhead the Global War on Terror in the wake
    of the September 11 terrorist attacks. Special Forces’ prominent role in counterterrorism operations
    had two principal effects: first, US SOF’s operational successes drastically improved their reputation
    and perceived usefulness; second, as a result of the successful expanded use of Special Forces,
    many Allies followed suit to improve and expand their own SOF capabilities.
    11. US Special Forces’ effectiveness in post-9/11 counterinsurgency and counterterrorism
    operations fuelled new investment rapidly. The United States increased defence outlays to bolster
    the ranks and capabilities of its Special Forces by almost five-fold from 2001 to 2016, going from
    USD 2.3 billion to USD 10.4 billion (Naylor, 2016). The United States’ use of Special Forces for
    missions and operations continues to grow, as global terrorism threats remain high. During the first
    200 days of the Trump presidency, for example, the US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM)
    carried out more than 100 operations, representing a five-fold increase over
    President Barack Obama’s final 200 days (Zenko, 2017).
    12. In parallel to the United States, many European countries also have well-trained, effective and
    dynamic modern Special Operations Forces – and attention to these forces is only growing. Among
    the larger European militaries, it should come as no surprise that both the United Kingdom and
    France have a long tradition of developing and deploying Special Operations Forces for a range of
    tasks from direct action and special reconnaissance to military assistance. Since 2001, both nations
    have been vital partners to US global counterterrorism efforts, and both nations have taken leading
    roles in areas such as Libya, Iraq, Syria, Mali, and beyond. At home and abroad, both France and
    the United Kingdom have proven to be not only key SOF innovators, but also essential contributors
    to Allied operations and training missions.
    13. Beyond the larger NATO militaries, increased attention to SOF is also changing the force
    structures and contributions of many other medium and smaller Allies to NATO missions and tasks
    – Spain, Norway and Lithuania are excellent examples of this trend. Their varying size, geography,
    and threat perspectives demonstrate the growing trend across the Alliance to invest in dynamic and
    innovative modern SOF.
    14. As a delegation from the NATO PA Sub-Committee on Future Security and Defence
    Capabilities (DSCFC) learned on a recent visit to Spain, the Spanish Special Forces are evolving
    quickly. Spain has recently begun raising its defence expenditures and a 2016 review of its force
    structure resulted in the reorganisation of its army brigades for increased deployability via more
    169 DSCFC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    3
    efficient mechanised formations and Special Operations Forces (Mix, 2018). The greater emphasis
    on SOF follows the 2014 creation of the Joint Special Operations Command, which sought to
    organise Special Operations Forces across all branches of the Spanish military (Villarejo, 2016). In
    addition, Spain has created a fourth Special Operations Force, the Grupo de Operaciones
    Especiales (GOE), which increases its ability to deploy its SOF abroad. The Spanish Special
    Operations Command (SOCOM) is also currently leading the Special Operations element of the
    2018 NATO Response Force (NRF).
    15. The Norwegian Special Operations Command (NORSOCOM), established in 2014, combined
    the two Norwegian SOF units under one new autonomous command, allowing the Norwegian SOF
    (NORSOF) a more comprehensive approach to tackling complex challenges such as hybrid warfare
    tactics or violent extremism. Now an independent military branch, NORSOF is equivalent to the
    Norwegian Army and Navy (Deblanc-Knowles, 2015). NORSOCOM indicated in 2016 its intention
    to establish a Special Operations Air Component (SOAC). Norway is also investing in greater C4ISR1
    technology for its Special Forces in its announced procurement for 2017-2025 (Norway MOD, 2017).
    Norway is currently hosting NATO’s Trident Juncture 2018 exercise, which is serving as a major test
    for the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF), in which Allied Special Forces play a key role.
    16. Understanding the limitations of its conventional forces, Lithuania has placed stronger
    emphasis on its Special Operations Forces’ tactical units to create a more versatile and flexible
    military response capability (Andriskevicius, 2014). In 2014, Lithuania assigned 2,500 troops to a
    rapid reaction component of the Lithuanian Armed Forces (LAF). This rapid reaction SOF component
    is a means of providing a swift response in the event of a hybrid contingency, to which conventional
    forces would likely be too slow to respond. Lithuania also hosts the annual Flaming Sword exercise,
    which brings together NATO member states’ and partner nations’ SOF. The exercise’s value is in its
    focus on strengthening Allied SOF interoperability when responding to a localised hybrid incident,
    which then scales quickly to broader conventional conflict.
    17. As is clear from the examples of Spain, Norway, and Lithuania, the post-2014 international
    security environment is driving an Alliance-wide renewed focus on the development of modern SOF.
    Some Allies are also expanding the role of women among their ranks.
    THE GROWING ROLE OF WOMEN IN SOF
    18. While still a controversial subject, the integration of women into SOF has demonstrated clear
    benefits to the handful of nations that have begun doing so. With an ever-increasing reliance on
    SOF units across a broad range of missions, the integration of women into SOF units is providing
    NATO member states with new, valuable in-theatre operational capabilities. For example, in 2014
    the Norwegian Special Forces created the Jegertroppen, an all-female Special Forces training
    programme, focusing on surveillance and reconnaissance. Norwegian officials note that in
    Afghanistan, intelligence gathering and relationship building, two crucial aspects of counterterrorism
    operations, were being hampered because the all-male SOF units were unable to interact with
    women in the conservative local population. Outside Afghanistan, these capabilities have also
    proven useful in Iraq, Syria, and off the coast of Somalia during counter-piracy missions (Korpela,
    2016).
    19. In 2017, however, the US Army’s 75th
    Ranger Regiment had its first woman meet the standards
    to join the unit after completion of Ranger Assessment and Selection Program 2. This also comes
    after two women completed Army Ranger School after the United States opened all combat roles to
    women (Tzemach Lemmon, 2017). When it comes to Navy and the Air Force, despite women being
    recruited for training, neither branch has seen a woman pass the difficult standard requirements for
    admission into the forces (Swick and Moore, 2018).
    1 C4ISR - Command, Control, Communications, Computer, Intelligence, Surveillance, and
    Reconnaissance
    169 DSCFC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    4
    20. While Canada has some women SOF personnel, it is currently working to broaden the
    operational capabilities women can provide to Canadian Special Forces. Canadian officials note that
    increased participation from women SOF will allow for greater flexibility when carrying out operations,
    particularly highlighting the fact that mixed-gender teams would likely be less conspicuous in
    operations than an all-male team (Brewster, 2018).
    II. TODAY’S SECURITY ENVIRONMENT – OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR SOF
    21. NATO’s scramble to adapt post-2014 can be lumped into two broad challenges: Russia and
    jihadi-inspired violent extremism. Thinking of these as distinct poles seeking to undermine the peace
    and security of Allied populations and territory, however, masks the complexity of the threats they
    pose. In the longer term, NATO will need to find the means to adapt its force structure and policies
    to defend Allied populations and territories from both near-peer competitors, such as Russia and
    China, and powerful non-state actors probing to find exploitable weaknesses in Allied consensus
    and commitment.
    22. Russia is a revisionist state opposed to the political, economic, and security arrangements
    dictated by the Euro-Atlantic community in Europe. Emboldened by recent advances in its
    conventional military capabilities, Russia is increasingly aggressive in its political, economic, and
    security brinkmanship with the West. Russia is far from a strictly conventional threat, however, which
    requires only the calculation of the right balance of conventional, nuclear, and air and missile defence
    systems to counter it. In reality, Russia also poses a suite of asymmetrical challenges, some of which
    are more often associated with non-state armed groups and criminal networks than with modern
    nation states.
    23. Terrorist organisations exploiting religious motives are a major security challenge for all Allied
    states today. The number of European and North American citizens committing violent acts in the
    name of extremist ideologies is growing, and it is testing the limits of national police forces and
    causing deep civil society turmoil (Vidino et al., 2017). Intelligence estimates put the number of
    Europeans rushing to join Daesh after its rapid rise in 2014 at 5,000; about 1,500 of these are
    expected to try to return home (Renard and Coolsaet, 2018).
    24. Pressured by active military campaigns against them in Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan,
    Daesh leaders are encouraging people to act with any means available wherever they can. As a
    result, random stabbings and vehicle slaughter have accounted for the highest number of successful
    attacks in recent years – one study identified 51 such lone wolf attacks in the three years from
    June 2014 to June 2017 (Vidino et al., 2017).
    25. In numerous conflicts around the world, from Afghanistan to the Middle East to West Africa,
    armed groups are wreaking havoc on weak states and causing the displacement of large numbers
    of local populations, many of whom are swelling the ranks of refugee and migrant flows into Turkey,
    Europe and, across the Atlantic, into Canada and the United States. Today’s international terrorist
    groups, such as Daesh, are also using methods and tactics more associated with state actors –
    holding territory, taxing civilians, building more structured conventional-style fighting forces, etc. As
    such, these groups are having an even more profound impact on the ground, in war-torn societies
    seeking to find a means of political and social reconciliation. Transnational groups, local non-state
    armed groups, and “lone wolf” individuals all employ terrorism tactics from a position of relative
    weakness to disrupt and sow fear and doubt about the current political order’s ability to maintain
    peace and security.
    26. This complex spectrum of threats is forcing political leaders and policy advisors to expand their
    understanding of security in new ways as they seek to find the appropriate instruments of national
    power – diplomatic, informational, military, economic, financial, intelligence, and law enforcement
    169 DSCFC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    5
    (DIME-FIL) – to match the near and longer-term goals to maintain the peace and security of the
    populations for which they are ultimately responsible.
    DISRUPTIVE TACTICS SHORT OF WAR: THE GREY ZONE AND NEAR-PEER
    COMPETITION
    27. Expanding our understanding of security is made more difficult by the fact that many threats
    to NATO today operate in what many academics and, increasingly, policymakers, call the grey zone.
    Between war and peace, grey zone competition exists below Article 5. The term encapsulates the
    myriad disruptive tactics that can be used to gain advantage over an adversary short of provoking a
    conventional conflict. In the grey zone, state and non-state actors “employ threats, coercion,
    co-option, espionage, sabotage, political and economic pressure, propaganda, cyber tools,
    clandestine techniques, deniability, the threat of the use of force, and the use of force to advance
    their political and military agenda” (Roberts, 2016).
    28. States, or any other actor trying to challenge a state, have two basic strategic choices when it
    comes to designing defensive frameworks – matching (as the United States and the USSR did in
    the Cold War) or offsetting, which means investing in and exploiting the capabilities necessary to
    undermine their competitor’s advantage (Goldman, 2011).
    29. Given the conventional and (still) technological superiority of NATO member states, particularly
    the United States, NATO Allies’ adversaries are investing in and honing their grey zone capabilities.
    By doing so, NATO’s adversaries are seeking the means, short of war, to disrupt at the political,
    social, economic and security levels. As a result, concern about a wide range of potential disruptors,
    from terrorist attacks to election meddling to disinformation campaigns, is shifting the understanding
    of defence and deterrence today for all NATO members.
    30. Given their training, education, and operational dynamism across a range of tasks, there is an
    increasing tendency to see Special Forces as a key element of the defence, deterrence, and
    situational awareness needed by Allies facing threats emanating across the increasingly broad
    spectrum of security challenges facing NATO today.
    III. SOF IN THE MODERN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
    ALLIED SOF AND COUNTERTERRORISM
    31. As noted above, SOF have become the de facto military instrument of choice for the broader
    global counterterrorism campaign begun in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. There are two main
    kinds of SOF deployment: direct missions to find, track, obtain evidence on, arrest, neutralise or
    destroy key terrorist capabilities; or, indirect methods, which often involve SOF train, advise, and
    assist missions of partner forces (both state and non-state). Both direct and indirect missions in the
    era of the global war on terror have been extremely successful. Examples of both abound; in the
    case of Iraq, coalition forces’ efforts in pursuit of al-Qaeda from 2005 to 2011 decimated their
    capability, avoided a sectarian war, and thereby saved countless Iraqi civilian lives. Further, it can
    be argued the training, advice and assistance provided to the Iraqi Special Forces over the same
    period proved to be the lynchpin that saved Baghdad from falling during the darkest hours of the
    2014 Daesh onslaught upon the country. The US operation to track and eliminate Osama bin Laden
    was able to add a degree of closure to the trauma of the 9/11 attacks.
    32. SOF prevail in today’s counterterrorism policy environment for a simple reason – their
    effectiveness at achieving operational objectives with the most appropriate means for mission
    requirements. Policymakers, however, should be wary of the overuse and longer-term
    policy-strategy mismatch that result from an overreliance on SOF.
    169 DSCFC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    6
    POTENTIAL PROBLEMS OF LONG-TERM CT STRATEGY AND RELIANCE ON SOF –
    THE EXAMPLE OF DAESH AND THE TALIBAN
    33. Many Allied nation’s most recent SOF-heavy operations should underscore a key attribute
    about the use of SOF: Special Operations are almost always part of a larger strategic goal, which
    requires support not only from other military instruments of power, but from national ones as well,
    such as economic and political. While SOF can help achieve tactical success, broader strategic goals
    necessitate an investment of more sustained effort and political will. At times, however, some nations
    deploy SOF to capture or eliminate “high-value” targets within a specific terrorist organisation, with
    the objective of precipitating the organisations’ collapse or obsolescence.
    34. As studies have shown, high-value targeting strategies have not been as effective as hoped
    (Long, 2016). Despite efforts to decapitate and erode certain groups’ leaders and effective
    middlemen, the strategy is largely ineffective due to these groups’ organisational strategy –
    highly-institutionalised groups such as the Taliban have proven to be able to absorb shocks to their
    leadership structure quickly.
    35. Further, those groups that have been beaten down through the attrition of a high-value capture
    and kill strategy, such as Daesh, have found ways to regroup, resource, and re-emerge. As the state
    part of the Islamic state of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) fails, the group will retreat to what all armed
    terrorist groups seem to do today – plan to regroup by using a mix of international and regional
    terrorism and local insurgency to keep their cause alive, maintain relevance and then resurge.
    Unfortunately, the conditions on the ground in Iraq and Syria today likely still offer ripe spaces for
    the group to resurge.
    36. In addition, it should be noted there are clear legal and human rights issues regarding targeted
    killing outside of the legally prescribed battlefield. This issue is at the centre of the current debate in
    the United States about the need for a new authorisation for the use of military force. Further, the
    divergent perspectives on the question of what are and what are not extrajudicial killings fuel social
    media speculation and distrust, not to mention the propaganda of the very terrorist organisations our
    nations’ forces are fighting.
    A. RUSSIAN USE OF SOF
    37. Russia is using SOF to disrupt and destabilise its near abroad in an effort to maintain influence
    and control over political developments in those regions. The most recent example is the annexation
    of Crimea.
    Russia’s Annexation of Crimea and Continued Interference in Ukraine
    38. As this Committee debated in its 2015 report on Hybrid Warfare [166 DSC 15 E bis], Russia’s
    interference in and subsequent annexation of Crimea were an example of all elements of Russian
    state power combined to achieve a short-term strategic outcome. Russian Special Forces played a
    key role in Moscow’s ability to deceive, disrupt, and then seize territory in Ukraine.
    39. In the early months of 2014, Ukrainian civil society was in a very public struggle for its future,
    its options being either to remain in the Russian sphere of influence or to move further toward the
    Euro-Atlantic community via closer association with the European Union and NATO. By the end of
    February, Russia had initiated a large-scale snap exercise of up to 150,000 personnel, which was
    able to divert attention from Russian actions in Crimea. Quickly, a large-scale cyberattack was
    launched against Ukrainian public and private institutions, which was followed by the classic
    electronic warfare tactic of jamming communication systems on Crimean institutions. The electronic
    warfare attack was able to isolate the peninsula from Kyiv so it would not be able to muster a
    coordinated response. Soon, unidentified Russian Special Forces infiltrated and seized key military
    and government locations across the peninsula. Russia also used a disinformation campaign and
    169 DSCFC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    7
    diplomatic efforts to push through a trumped-up referendum on independence. All the tactics used
    managed to stay short of war while still achieving the desired political outcome.
    40. Russia continues to interfere in Ukraine. The sustainment and training of insurgent forces in
    eastern Ukraine is an excellent example of a Russian military assistance mission. Moscow’s support
    of proxy forces blocks Kyiv’s ability to control all Ukrainian territory and thereby distracts it from its
    efforts to further its Euro-Atlantic integration projects. Non-military means to destabilise Kyiv include:
    the use of control of natural resources to exert economic and political pressure, cyberattacks, the
    use of criminal networks, etc. All of this is happening under an incessant barrage of propaganda and
    dezinformatzia or fake news to unanchor people’s perceptions of truth by keeping various narratives
    of any particular news event alive, to even the reinterpretation of recent and long historical past.
    41. It is clear from the above that Russia conceives of its military forces, including its SOF, as
    assets to be used in support of all elements of its national power, which it uses towards its grand
    strategic goals. This differs significantly from the Alliance. NATO Allies seem to conceive of their
    forces as assets to be deployed in defence of their national instruments of power. This will lead to a
    perpetual strategic imbalance and weakness when faced with Russia. As a result, NATO continues
    to respond to Russia, rather than anticipate its actions.
    NATO’S RESPONSES TO THE EVOLVING SECURITY ENVIRONMENT – WHAT ROLE
    FOR A COORDINATED SOF EFFORT?
    42. NATO is responding to the Russian challenge via a range of initiatives to update its defence
    and deterrence posture post-2014. These include NATO’s increased presence in its eastern
    territories via the Enhanced Forward Presence and the Tailored Forward Presence. The Alliance is
    also working to coordinate its deterrence along the southern flank via initiatives such as the Hub for
    the South in Naples. The ability to respond and to reinforce Allied forces in the event of a contingency
    is also reflected in a revised NATO Response Force, an expanded command structure, the
    Readiness Initiative, and the Enablement Plan for SACEUR’s area of responsibility.
    43. More broadly, however, the institution of new missions and operations, as well as centres of
    excellence, and the expansion of the Alliance’s structure are part and parcel of the push for all Allies
    to engage with what is being called 360-degree security. It is essentially a call on Allies to be resilient
    in all domains (including cyber), to be aware of and have the ability to respond to rapidly evolving
    security situations around them, and, ultimately, to work with partners to project stability abroad.
    44. A key question, therefore, is how NATO is working to coordinate the training and
    interoperability of Allies’ SOF to meet the diverse range of tasks they are increasingly being asked
    to face as the Alliance develops its new defence and deterrence posture.
    B. EVOLUTION OF THE ROLE OF SOF IN NATO2
    45. In 2010 Allies established the NATO Special Operations Headquarters (NSHQ), which was
    designed to be a standing headquarters with a coordinating function, rather than a NATO Special
    Operations Command. NSHQ’s core function is the coordination of the development of SOF
    capability and interoperability for Allies and Partners 3
    . A key element of NSHQ’s efforts is
    encapsulated in the NATO SOF School, which provides training and education “to build Alliance and
    Partner Nation SOF capability, capacity, and interoperability”. Currently, the school offers 27 different
    2 The information provided below extends from a number of interviews and briefings the author and
    NATO PA Defence and Security Committee staff had with NATO SOF Commanders at NSHQ and the
    NSHQ Commanders Conference, and with staff at the Global SOF Foundation (GSF). Any fault of
    misinterpretation is our own.
    3 A task greatly assisted by NATO’s Battlefield Information Collection and Exploitation Systems (BICES).
    Currently, all NATO and approved SOF partners are able to share, access, and collaborate on all
    releasable information on BICES.
    169 DSCFC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    8
    resident courses focusing on professional development, operational studies, intelligence and
    technical exploitation operations, SOF air development, and SOF medical training and education.
    46. Beyond NATO Allies, current NSHQ development with partners is focused on heavily
    resourced programmes in Ukraine, Georgia, and Tunisia. While NSHQ sees a benefit in expanding
    its partner development programmes, this is still not a political priority at NATO.
    C. NATO SOF AND POST-2014 ADAPTATION
    47. As noted above, a key element of NATO’s response to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea
    was the revamping the NATO Response Force (NRF) via the Readiness Action Plan (RAP), which
    sought to scale the number of forces capable of responding to a contingency to 40,000 and make
    them more flexible and adaptable, with the objective of guaranteeing rapid reinforcement and
    mobility. The RAP also established the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force as the spearhead of
    the NRF, capable of deploying 5,000 brigade-level troops within two to seven days’ notice to the
    periphery of the Alliance4
    . Following its reform, the NRF contains air, land, maritime and SOF
    components.
    48. NSHQ’s principal role in the NRF is to coordinate Allied SOF capability development in order
    for nations to complete the Long-Term Rotation Plan for the NRF, including establishing the NRF
    Special Operations Component Commands (SOCC) and the Task Groups (and Units) beneath them.
    As building the SOCC is the most challenging role for Allied nations to fill, NSHQ has a dedicated
    Zero to NRF SOCC programme, which provides a five-year structured approach to developing a
    nation’s ability to provide a SOCC. The programme includes education, training, exercises, and
    evaluation. Depending on the need, the programme can also include NATO assistance in the
    provision of Communication Information Systems (CIS) and other enabling capabilities the nation
    may not be able to resource independently.
    49. As NATO continues to adapt its defence and deterrence posture, Allied SOF have a key role
    to play. NHSQ is seeking to transition from the above-mentioned operational command and control
    capability to providing a strategic theatre Special Forces capability to the Alliance. As a theatre SOF
    component, NSHQ will be linked more closely to the Director of Special Operations Office at SHAPE
    to provide strategic advice and synchronise the Special Forces domain across the entire theatre at
    a level above the Operational Joint Force Commands.
    D. NATO SOF REGIONALISATION?
    50. There is a desire today to push SOF command, control, and planning to the regional level via
    an expanded network of SOCCs. Regional SOCCs could be configured by linguistic commonality,
    geography, historical linkages, or capability. This would translate into a coordination of the member
    state SOF capabilities in any one region in order to tap into joint tasking, which would then create a
    clearer regional picture – combined regional SOCCs would then be pulled together to form a more
    complete intelligence understanding of any form of hybrid developments across Alliance territory, to
    be compiled into a coordinated picture in Brussels. The ability to have increased assets available
    and operating at the regional level is an essential element in increasing situational awareness and
    the capacity for the Alliance to identify and react to hybrid scenarios – in some ways, clearing up
    some confusion that can reign in the grey zone.
    51. Another principal driver behind NATO SOF regionalisation is that NATO SOF are having a
    hard time filling the required number of SOCCs according to their ambition levels. As many nations
    are still short on resources and capability, the creation of composite SOCCs with discrete roles for
    each nation, allowing for a stronger, more resilient network, is still lacking. Some nations are already
    4 This Committee addressed in greater detail the impact of the decision in the 2015 report NATO’s
    Readiness Action Plan: Assurance and Deterrence for the Post-2014 Security Environment
    [167 DSCFC 15 E bis] by Xavier Pintat (France).
    169 DSCFC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    9
    responding and acting accordingly. For example, Belgium, Denmark, and the Netherlands recently
    signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the creation of a Composite Special Operations
    Component Command (C-SOCC) in June 2018. The C-SOCC is expected to have initial operational
    capability by 2019 and full operational capability by 2021 (NATO, 2018).
    RECENT ALLIED SOF EXERCISING
    52. There is also momentum to increasingly coordinate Allied SOF exercising and training. For
    example, in 2016 NATO SOF units trained together during the exercise Cold Response. Recognising
    the Arctic as a new potential arena for strategic competition, 14 Member States and partner nations
    carried out exercises in Norway aimed at enhancing the capabilities of NATO SOF teams during cold
    weather operations.
    53. In June 2018, the USSOCOM Europe-led exercise Trojan Footprint 18 took place, which
    brought together Special Operations Forces from 13 NATO Member States and partner nations. The
    Trojan Footprint exercise takes place every two years. The focus of Trojan Footprint 18 was the
    “rapid deployment of SOF into a crisis, the establishment of multinational mission command
    structures, and the integration of SOF and conventional forces.” Trojan Footprint 18 took place in
    Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, incorporating both air and sea assets (Weisman, 2018). As
    noted above, Trident Juncture 2018 is taking place across Norway, with additional elements taking
    place in Sweden, Finland, Iceland, the North Sea, and the Baltic Sea. The exercise incorporates
    significant Special Forces elements and serves as a test of the VJTF’s certification in the revised
    NRF.
    IV. SOF AND PARLIAMENTARY OVERSIGHT
    54. As previously discussed, SOF can play an important role in the grey area between war and
    peace. However, as this grey area is inherently vague and used to justify a wide array of activities,
    there are growing concerns about accountability.
    55. These accountability concerns manifest in two ways. First, Special Forces traditionally do not
    require parliamentary approval for specific deployments. Second, governments usually report
    successful operations, but often keep silent over botched operations. Consequently, the public
    perceives SOF operations to be more reliable than they might be in reality because of selective use
    of data.
    56. For many valid reasons, secrecy is still a predominant feature of SOF operations. Still, while
    SOF units are, in principle, under the same military justice system as regular troops, the secrecy of
    their operations means that courts are often unable to access full files, including the identity of the
    personnel. As such, the lack of information surrounding operations makes personnel hard to
    prosecute for serious mistakes and negligence - if not worse. It is also difficult for parliamentarians
    to ensure SOF personnel have the appropriate training, equipment, and leadership in place to deal
    with the consequences of mistakes, which is essential to refining best practices.
    57. A quick overview of the role several member states’ parliaments play in overseeing their
    Special Forces in their national security policy highlights a range of approaches taken to institute
    democratic control over Special Forces across the Alliance.
    169 DSCFC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    10
    SELECTED OVERVIEW OF ALLIED PARLIAMENTARY SOF OVERSIGHT
    The United Kingdom
    58. In 2015, this Rapporteur made an enquiry in the House of Commons after the Prime Minister’s
    cabinet vowed to increase the SOF budget by GBP 2 billion. The cabinet failed to explain why such
    an increase was needed. This Rapporteur also oversaw a parliamentary inquiry that debated
    whether the Ministry of Defence should lose its immunity from prosecution— over incidents during
    exercises after the incidental deaths of three Special Air Service (SAS) candidates during a selection
    event (Moon, 2015; Townsend, 2016). Crown immunity makes it virtually impossible to prosecute
    the Ministry of Defence for failures of duty of care towards personnel.
    59. In the United Kingdom, any information concerning Special Operations activities is highly
    classified. UK parliamentarians have discussed the release of information concerning these
    operations on multiple occasions, most notably as a means of requesting further details over the
    British Special Air Service’s involvement in the global war on terrorism.
    60. Details over operations are excluded from UK Freedom of Information Act and from its
    30-year rule on the public disclosure of government documents. Former British Defence Secretary
    Philip Hammond was quite outspoken over the government’s policy: “We never comment on the
    disposition of our special forces anywhere in the world and that will remain our policy” (Moran,
    2016a). Indeed, on its public website, the British Ministry of Defence does not acknowledge SOF as
    deployed troops (The British Army, 2018). Available data has either been approved by the Ministry
    of Defence or leaked. The United Kindgom’s SOF involvement in Libya was revealed incidentally by
    King Abdullah II of Jordan during a briefing with the US Congress (Ramesh, 2016).
    The United States
    61. Since 2001, the United States Congress has authorised the president to use the means
    necessary, including the armed forces, to prosecute what has become known as the Global War on
    Terrorism. The first Authorization to Use Military Force (AUMF) allowed the president to “use all
    necessary and appropriate force” against any actor or organisation that aided or abetted the 9/11
    terrorist attacks. The second AUMF, passed on 11 October 2002, gave the president the authority
    to “use the Armed Forces of the United States as he determines to be necessary and appropriate”
    to defend the nation against continuing the threat posed by Iraq. The US Congress has not passed
    an additional AUMF since, and the Obama and Trump administrations have continued to argue these
    two AUMFs are sufficient to engage in military activities related to the war on terrorism outside of
    Afghanistan and Iraq, which often involve SOF military assistance or direct action.
    62. There has been considerable debate about the need for a new AUMF in the United States in
    recent years. In many respects, this is a debate about how much authority to use military force should
    be in the hands of the US executive branch, given that the US Constitution actually allocates a fair
    amount of control in this respect to the US Congress – practice over the years, however, has
    significantly reduced this role. In the wake of the October 2017 killings of three US soldiers in Niger,
    debate has increased.
    63. Despite this, the House and Senate Armed Services Committees are regularly briefed, both
    orally and in writing, about US military programmes and the authorisations under which they are
    operating. Still, there is clear concern growing in the legislative branch about the extent to which US
    Special Forces are being used. In November 2017, for example, congressional representatives from
    both the House and Senate Armed Services Committees voiced their concerns over the increasing
    use of SOF at a policy forum organised by the Global SOF Foundation, where they argued US SOF
    units are fatigued by repeated and uninterrupted deployments (Brimelow, 2017).
    169 DSCFC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    11
    France
    64. In France, the Commandement des Opérations Spéciales (Special Operations Command,
    COS) was established in 1992 following the blueprint of USSOCOM. As of 2017, the Ministry of
    Defence had recognised 25 operations conducted by French Special Forces since the COS’
    inception, but it is likely many more were conducted in secret (Schumacher, 2017). The COS
    established a prominent role for itself in the French defence strategy, as it managed to secure a
    considerable budget to invest in new technological capabilities (Guibert, 2018). On the other hand,
    its missions are characterised by the same lack of information found in the United States and in the
    United Kingdom.
    65. In recent years, French military involvement in Libya was made public only through a
    journalistic investigation by Le Monde. As a consequence, then-Minister of Defence
    Jean-Yves Le Drian launched a criminal investigation into this violation of national defence secrecy
    (Guibert, 2016). In 2017, the government announced the death of a French soldier in Iraq, without
    revealing either his identity or the exact place of his death, to preserve the larger objectives of the
    mission; France had never recognised an official deployment of troops in the area (Kujawski, 2017).
    From a legal perspective, the secret deployment of Special Forces could be considered a violation
    of the French Constitution: in principle, the French Constitution says the French president should
    always give notice to the Parliament within three days of a military operation, while a deployment of
    more than four months would require parliamentary approval (Thomas, 2015). In order to shed light
    over the COS’ activities, its Commander, General Grégoire de Saint-Quentin, had a Committee
    hearing in June 2016. At the hearing, General de Saint-Quentin argued discretion to be an intrinsic
    characteristic of COS missions, in order to maintain a strategic advantage in the theatre of operations
    (Assemblée Nationale, 2016).
    Challenges of Parliamentary Oversight of SOF in Other Member States
    66. Problems concerning lack of parliamentary oversight are also present in other NATO countries.
    In 2016, Italy reorganised its Special Operations’ command structure, allocating authority over
    Special Forces missions to the secret services. As such, the Italian government acquired full control
    over their deployment, effectively removing any parliamentary oversight role. The reform coincided
    with reports that Italian forces have been operating in Libya: most likely, the government wanted to
    avoid a parliamentary debate over such a divisive issue (Kington, 2016). In Canada, Special Forces
    share a similar fate to their US counterparts: their use has grown significantly in recent years for
    counterterrorism operations, but it seems to have done so away from public knowledge or oversight
    by parliamentarians (National Post, 2015).
    67. As noted above, secrecy is a crucial part of success for operations conducted by Special
    Forces. However, this should not come at the cost of at least some form of democratic control of the
    use of these armed forces. While recognising the strategic importance of SOF, parliamentarians
    should still be able to exercise some form of real control over their activities. Aside from conducting
    parliamentary hearings, parliamentarians usually have voting powers over defence budgets, and
    therefore also over SOF funding. Parliamentarian information requests about exactly what their
    nation’s SOF forces are requesting funding for in their budgets may shed more light on the types of
    activities they will be executing. Funding spent on new equipment and technologies for effective
    intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance operations is money well spent; non-traceable
    funding, however, will raise more than a few eyebrows about the ways in which any nation’s Special
    Forces are directing national resources.
    169 DSCFC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    12
    V. CONCLUSIONS: WAYS FORWARD FOR NATO PARLIAMENTARIAN CONSIDERATION
    68. Capable Special Operations Forces are essential to dealing with the challenges of today and
    tomorrow’s international security environment. International security competitors and those elements
    seeking to undermine the Alliance will increasingly attempt to do so via grey zone tactics – coercion,
    co-option, espionage, sabotage, political and economic pressure, propaganda, cyber tools,
    clandestine techniques, etc. These instruments allow competitors to attempt to remain below the
    threshold of Article 5, which would bring to bear the overwhelming power of the Alliance into a conflict
    – which, at present, any opponent would lose. To parry competitors' grey zone tactics, Allied Special
    Forces can provide essential special reconnaissance, intelligence, and precision operations.
    69. The increased demand for Special Forces’ services, however, is straining the ability for Allied
    nations to fill their ranks with soldiers capable of performing the demanding missions asked of them.
    Further, many Allies’ SOF are currently lacking the necessary strategic reach to accomplish their
    tasks outside of continental Europe. Special Forces need the strategic reach capabilities to execute
    their missions – this means, for example, investing in capabilities like the C-17 or the A-400 and the
    necessary accompanying tanker support.
    70. The Alliance has the means to provide uniform, capable, and interoperable SOF across all
    member states. The key channel through which this happens is the NATO Special Operations
    Headquarters. As the Alliance is adapting, so is NSHQ.
    71. Member state parliamentarians should know, however, that NSHQ is faced with the dilemma
    many institutions and services face in today’s security environment: limited resources being
    stretched over too much demand. For example:
    - NATO’s demands with regards to fielding special operation commands will soon need to
    scale to include another level of battalion-level HQs.
    - The Alliance’s increased demand for policy planning from NSHQ, which at current levels
    is diverting precious resources away from other institutional core tasks.
    - NSHQ is perennially understaffed. It is currently running at only 70%. Member state
    parliamentarians should inform themselves about what their nation is doing to support this
    critical institution to Allied-wide capable SOF development.
    72. The drive for an increasingly regionalised Alliance SOF presence still lacks the necessary
    political will. Regionalisation would provide clear benefits: regional NATO SOF component
    commands would allow for an expanded situational awareness capacity and a clear edge in terms
    of speed and accuracy. The Alliance desperately needs this in the face of hybrid tactics, which
    attempt to sow chaos, confusion, or discord about the reality on the ground. We must recognise that
    security competition between NATO and its competitors is increasingly played out in the grey zone,
    and that a more efficient SOF structure would increase the clarity of the security picture facing the
    Alliance.
    73. A more efficient regionalised SOF presence would bring significant resilience and strength to
    the Alliance’s new defence and deterrence posture. Coordinated regional SOF would assist greatly
    with Brussels’s oft-repeated desire to have a 360-degree security posture backed by a dynamic and
    mobile deterrent – which a cadre of elite, highly educated, trained, and rapidly deployable SOF
    across the Alliance’s disparate regions would strengthen greatly. A regional NATO SOF architecture
    would increase Alliance understanding of the new, more nuanced and complex, challenges to its
    security.
    169 DSCFC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    13
    74. We must ask ourselves several basic questions:
    - Do we have an understanding beyond the balance of forces assessment used when
    examining Allied conventional defence posture?
    - Do we have capable, able, adaptable and structured forces available, on a regular basis,
    to deal with a Ukraine-like attack on our countries?
    - Can we afford to delay putting the regional structures in places to provide the responses
    we require?
    75. Ultimately, Special Operations Forces should be thought of as a complement to a broader
    whole-of-government approach to security, rather than as a panacea to complex issues.
    Parliamentarians need to think seriously about these issues and work to attain the right kind of
    interagency cooperation to address these growing and complex challenges.
    169 DSCFC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    14
    BIBLIOGRAPHY
    Andriskevicius, Jonas, “The Lithuanian Armed Forces: Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow”, Proceedings
    of ENDC, 2014,
    https://www.ksk.edu.ee/wp-
    content/uploads/2014/12/KVUOA_Toimetised_19_09_andriskevicius.pdf
    Asbjørn, Lysgård and Boe, Ole, “A Partner Perspective on the Evolution of the Global Special
    Operations Forces Enterprise”, Arts and Social Science Journal, vol. 8 no. 313,
    www.omicsonline.org/open-access/a-partner-perspective-on-the-evolution-of-the-global-
    special-operationsforces-enterprise-2151-6200-1000313.pdf
    Assemblée Nationale, “Audition du général Grégoire de Saint-Quentin, commandant des opérations
    spéciales”, Commission de la défense nationale et des forces armées, 1 June 2016,
    www.assemblee-nationale.fr/14/cr-cdef/15-16/c1516055.asp
    Bacevich, Andrew, “The Golden Age of Special Operations”, Tom Dispatch, 29 May 2012,
    www.tomdispatch.com/archive/175547/
    Barno, David and Sharp, Trevis, “SOF Power”, Foreign Policy, 14 February 2012.
    http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/02/14/sof-power/
    Brewster, Murray, “Canada’s special forces want to attract women for a job that’s more than kicking
    down doors”, CBC, 10 January 2018, https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/special-forces-women-
    1.4479883
    Brimelow, Ben, “Congress is worried that US special-operations forces may be stretched to the limit”,
    Business Insider, 20 November 2017, http://uk.businessinsider.com/congress-is-worried-that-
    us-special-forces-may-be-overworked-2017-11?r=US&IR=T
    Chivvis, Christopher S., “Understanding Russian "Hybrid Warfare", RAND Corporation, 22 March
    2017, www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/CT468.html
    Cleveland, Charles T, James B Linder and Ronald Dempsey, “Special Operations Doctrine: Is it
    Needed?”, in Mikaucic, Mike (ed.), PRISM, Volume 6, No 3, December 2016
    Connett, David, “SAS: Britain's elite military unit 'out of control', says parents of soldier who died on
    controversial selection course”, The Independent, 28 November 2015,
    www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/sas-britains-elite-military-unit-out-of-control-
    says-parents-of-soldier-who-died-on-controversial-a6752896.html
    Copp, Tara, “Mattis: Conventional forces will assume more special operations force roles in 2018”,
    Marine Corps Times, 29 December 2017, www.marinecorpstimes.com/news/your-
    military/2017/12/29/mattis-conventional-forces-will-assume-more-sf-roles-in-2018/
    DeBlanc-Knowles, Tess, “Creation of a Norwegian SOCOM: Challenges and Opportunities”, Global
    SOF Foundation, 6 October 2015
    Eriksson, Gunilla and Ulrica Pettersson, Special Operations from a Small State Perspective: Future
    Security Challenges, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2017
    Ferdinando, Lisa, “Officials Highlight Work of Special Operations Forces in House Hearing”, US
    Department of Defense, 16 February 2018,
    www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1443725/officials-highlight-work-of-special-operations-
    forces-in-house-hearing/
    Galeotti, Mark, “Behind the enemy lines: the rising influence of Russian special forces”, Jane’s
    Intelligence Review, December 2014.
    Glicken Turnley, Jessica; Kobi, Michael and Ben-Ari, Eyal, Special Operations Forces in the 21st
    Century, Routledge, 2018
    Goldbaum, Christina, “Strong Evidence that U.S. Special Operations Forces Massacred Civilians in
    Somalia”, The Daily Beast, 29 November 2017, www.thedailybeast.com/strong-evidence-that-
    us-special-operations-forces-massacred-civilians-in-somalia
    Goldman, Emily, Power in Uncertain Times: Strategy in the Fog of Peace, Stanford, CA: Stanford
    University Press, 2011
    Guibert, Nathalie, “Contre-terrorisme : la mue des forces spéciales françaises”, Le Monde,
    24 January 2018, http://abonnes.lemonde.fr/international/article/2018/01/24/contre-
    terrorisme-la-mue-des-forces-speciales-francaises_5246367_3210.html
    169 DSCFC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    15
    Guibert, Nathalie, “La France mène des opérations secrètes en Libye”, Le Monde, 24 February 2016,
    http://abonnes.lemonde.fr/international/article/2016/02/24/la-france-mene-des-operations-
    secretes-en-libye_4870605_3210.html
    Helmus, Todd C., “Advising the Command – Best Practices from the Special Operations Advisory
    Experience in Afghanistan”, RAND, 2015
    Hoffman, Dr. Frank, “The Contemporary Spectrum of Conflict: Protracted, Gray Zone, Ambiguous,
    and Hybrid Modes of War”, Heritage Foundation, 2016 Index of U.S. Military Strength, 2016,
    https://index.heritage.org/military/2016/essays/contemporary-spectrum-of-conflict/
    Jensen, Lars H. Ehrensvärd; “Special operations - myths and facts”, Institute for Strategy, Royal
    Danish Defence College, April 2014,
    https://pure.fak.dk/ws/files/5944821/Special_Operations_myths_and_facts.pdf
    Khomami, Nadia, “Jeremy Corbyn calls for law to limit PM's powers to deploy special forces”, The
    Guardian, 1 August 2016. www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/01/jeremy-corbyn-calls-
    for-law-to-limit-pms-powers-to-deploy-special-forces
    Kington, Tom; “Italy Reportedly Sends Special Forces to Libya”, DefenseNews, 11 August 2016,
    www.defensenews.com/global/mideast-africa/2016/08/11/italy-reportedly-sends-special-
    forces-to-libya/
    Kobi, Michael, “Special Operations Forces (SOF) as the ‘silver bullet’”, in Glicken Turnley, Jessica
    et al., Special Operations Forces in the 21st Century, London: Routledge, 2018
    Kofman, Michael et als., “Lessons from Russia's Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine”, RAND
    Corporation, 2017
    Korpela, Aleksi, “Jegertroppen: Norway’s All-Female Special Forces Unit”, NATO Association of
    Canada, 19 February 2016, http://natoassociation.ca/jegertroppen-norways-all-female-
    special-forces-unit/
    Kujawski, Ariane, “Ces soldats qui meurent dans le secret des opérations françaises”, BFMTV,
    25 September 2017, www.bfmtv.com/international/ces-soldats-qui-meurent-dans-le-secret-
    des-operations-francaises-1263661.html
    Lamb, Christopher J. and Bilsborough, Shane, “Special Operations Forces”, Oxford Bibliographies
    in Military History, New York: Oxford University Press, July 2013
    Long, Austin, “ The Limits of Special Operations Forces”, Prism, Vol.6, NO.3, 2016
    Mattelaer, Alexander, “Why Belgium needs a Special Operations Command”, Egmont Institute
    Security Policy, April 2016,
    www.egmontinstitute.be/content/uploads/2016/04/SPB70.pdf?type=pdf
    Maxwell, Col. David and Ltg. Charles Cleveland, “U.S. Special Operations Forces at 9-11, Today,
    and for the Future”, The Cipher Brief, 11 September 2016, www.thecipherbrief.com/u-s-
    special-operations-forces-at-9-11-today-and-for-the-future
    Mazzetti Mark and Eric Schmitt, “Obama’s ‘Boots on the Ground’: U.S. Special Forces Are Sent to
    Tackle Global Threats”, The New York Times, 27 December 2015,
    www.nytimes.com/2015/12/28/world/middleeast/more-and-more-special-forces-become-
    obamas-military-answer.html
    McCulloh Timothy and Richard Johnson, “Hybrid Warfare”, JSOU Report, 2013,
    www.socom.mil/JSOU/JSOUPublications/JSOU%2013-
    4_McCulloh,Johnson_Hybrid%20Warfare_final.pdf
    Miklaucic, Mike (ed.), “Special Operations in a Chaotic World”, PRISM, vol. 6, no. 3, 2016
    Mix, Derek E, “Spain and Its Relations with the United States: In Brief”, Congressional Research
    Service, 19 April 2018
    Moon, Madeleine; “This Week in Parliament: 16th-19th November, 2015”, Madeleine Moon MP for
    Bridgend Website,
    www.madeleinemoonmp.com/this_week_in_parliament_16th_19th_november_2015
    Moran, Jon, “Assessing SOF transparency and accountability”, Remote Control: Oxford Research
    Group, July 2016a
    Moran, Jon, “Time to move out of the Shadows? Special Operations Forces and Accountability in
    Counter-Terrorism and Counter-Insurgency operations”, University of New South Wales Law
    Journal, Vol. 39, No. 3, 2016b
    169 DSCFC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    16
    Morris, Steven, “SAS march on which three men died ‘went on to avoid paperwork’, The Guardian,
    1 June 2015, www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jun/01/inquest-deaths-army-reservists-
    sas-training-exercise-opens
    Murphy, Jack, “European SOF Operators on Why it is Hard to Serve”, SOFRep, 7 June 2016,
    https://sofrep.com/55541/hard-serve-european-special-operations-units/
    National Post, “Accountability sought for Canada's secret soldiers: Special forces often shrouded in
    mystery”, 24 January 2015, nationalpost.com/news/canada/oversight-sought-for-canadas-
    secret-soldiers-special-forces-often-shrouded-in-mystery
    NATO, “Special Operations Forces”, last updated: 24 February 2015,
    www.nato.int/cps/fr/natohq/topics_105950.htm?selectedLocale=en
    NATO, “Three Allies establish Special Forces Command”, NATO, 7 June 2018,
    https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_155347.htm?selectedLocale=en
    Naylor, Sean D., “Will Trump Break the Special Forces?”, The Atlantic, 27 December 2016.
    www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/12/trump-special-forces-green-beret-iraq-
    obama-jsoc/511229/
    Norton-Taylor, Richard; “Hidden Warfare 3: Special forces”, Open Democracy, 2 December 2016,
    www.opendemocracy.net/digitaliberties/richard-norton-taylor/hidden-warfare-3-special-forces
    Norwegian Ministry of Defence, “Future acquisitions for the Norwegian Defence Sector 2017-2025”,
    April 2017
    NSHQ, Author Interviews with Personnel and Commanders, February 2018.
    Parliament of the United Kingdom, “Commons debate”, 14 January 2002,
    https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200102/cmhansrd/vo020114/debtext/20114-03.htm
    Powers, Rod; “U.S. Military Special Operations Forces”, The Balance, 12 January 2018,
    www.thebalance.com/u-s-military-special-operations-forces-3354124
    Priest, Dana and William M. Arkin, “‘Top Secret America’: A look at the military’s Joint Special
    Operations Command”, The Washington Post, 2 September 2011.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/top-secret-america-a-look-at-the-
    militarys-joint-special-operations-
    command/2011/08/30/gIQAvYuAxJ_story.html?utm_term=.83dcb8a630ea
    Ramesh, Randeep; “SAS deployed in Libya since start of year, says leaked memo”, The Guardian,
    25 March 2016, www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/25/sas-deployed-libya-start-year-
    leaked-memo-king-abdullah
    Renard, Thomas and Coolsaet, Rick, “Returnees: Who Are They, Why Are They (Not) Coming Back
    and How Should We Deal With Them?: Assessing Policies on Returning Foreign Terrorist
    Fighters in Belgium, Germany, and The Netherlands”, Egmont Institute, February 2018,
    www.egmontinstitute.be/content/uploads/2018/02/egmont.papers.101_online_v1-
    3.pdf?type=pdf
    Roberts, James Q., “Need Authorities for the Gray Zone? Stop whining. Instead, Help yourself to
    Title 100. Hell, Take Some Title 200 While You’re At It”, Prism, Vol.6, NO.3, 2016
    Robinson, Linda, “SOF's Evolving Role: Warfare 'By, With, and Through' Local Forces”, RAND
    Corporation, 9 May 2017, www.rand.org/blog/2017/05/sofs-evolving-role-warfare-by-with-and-
    through-local.html
    Robinson, Linda, “The Future of U.S. Special Operations Forces”, Council on Foreign Relations,
    April 2013
    Rumsfeld, Donald, Known and Unknown: A Memoir, London: Penguin Books, 2011
    Schumacher, Thomas, “Le Commandement des Opérations Spéciales a 25 ans”, Pax Aquitania, 28
    June 2017, www.paxaquitania.fr/2017/06/le-commandement-des-operations.html
    Servent, Pierre; “25 ans d’opérations spéciales“, Ministère des Armées, 28 June 2017,
    www.defense.gouv.fr/actualites/articles/25-ans-d-operations-speciales
    Shabibi, Namir and Watling, Jack, “Britain's Covert War in Yemen: A VICE News Investigation”, VICE
    News, 7 April 2016, https://news.vice.com/article/britains-covert-war-in-yemen-a-vice-news-
    investigation
    Sharkov Damien, “Putin Congratulates Russian Special Forces On Crimea Anniversary”,
    Newsweek, 27 October 2017. www.newsweek.com/putin-congratulates-russian-special-
    forces-crimea-anniversary-561760
    169 DSCFC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    17
    SOFrep, “Special Operations Chief: ‘We are not a panacea’”, 8 May 2017,
    https://sofrep.com/80765/special-operations-chief-we-are-not-a-panacea/
    South, Todd, “Special Operations Command asks for more troops, biggest budget yet”, 24 February
    2018, Military Times, www.militarytimes.com/news/your-army/2018/02/23/special-operations-
    command-asks-for-more-troops-biggest-budget-yet/
    South, Todd, “Strain on SOF troops prompts call for review of how they’re used”, Military Times,
    17 November 2017, www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2017/11/17/strain-on-sof-
    troops-prompts-call-for-review-of-how-theyre-used/
    Spearim Christopher, “Special Operations Forces & Private Security Companies”, The US Army War
    College Quarterly Parameters, vol. 44 no. 2, summer 2014
    Steder, Frank and Leo Blanke (eds.), “Countering Hybrid Warfare: The Best Uses of SOF in a
    Pre-Article V Scenario”, Combating Terrorism Exchange (CTX), Norwegian Defence Research
    Establishment, November 2016,
    www.ffi.no/no/Publikasjoner/Documents/CTX_Countering%20Hybrid%20Warfare.%20The%
    20best%20use%20of%20SOF%20in%20a%20pre-article%20V%20Scenario.pdf
    Swick, Andrew and Emma Moore, “The (Mostly) Good News on Women in Combat”, Center for a
    New American Security, 19 April 2018, https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/an-update-
    on-the-status-of-women-in-combat
    The British Army; “Operations and Deployment”, available at www.army.mod.uk/deployments/, last
    accessed 4 April 2018
    Thomas, Yanis; “Les opérations Sabre et Barkhane en violation de la constitution”, Survie, Billets
    d’Afrique n. 243, February 2015, https://survie.org/billets-d-afrique/2015/243-fevrier-
    2015/article/les-operations-sabre-et-barkhane-4908
    Thorp, Arabella, “Killing Osama bin Laden: has justice been done?”, House of Commons Library,
    SN/IA/5967, 16 May 2011
    Townsend, Mark, “Ministry of Defence should lose crown immunity, say MPs”, The Guardian,
    24 April 2016, www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/24/ministry-of-defence-should-lose-
    crown-immunity-say-mps
    Trevithick, Joseph, “How a Secretive Special Operations Task Force Is Taking the Fight to ISIS”,
    The Drive, 1 May 2017, www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/9848/how-a-secretive-special-
    operations-task-force-is-taking-the-fight-to-isis
    Trevithick, Joseph, “Ukrainian Spetnaz's Weapons and Gear May Show an American Touch”, The
    Drive, 8 June 2017, www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/11305/ukrainian-spetnazs-weapons-
    and-gear-may-show-an-american-touch
    Turse, Nick, “American Special Operations Forces Are Deployed to 70 Percent of the World’s
    Countries”, The Nation, 5 January 2017, www.thenation.com/article/american-special-forces-
    are-deployed-to-70-percent-of-the-worlds-countries/
    Turse, Nick, “Donald Trump’s First Year Sets Record for U.S. Special Ops”, Tom Dispatch,
    14 December 2017,
    www.tomdispatch.com/post/176363/tomgram%3A_nick_turse%2C_a_wider_world_of_war/
    Tzemach Lemmon, Gayle, “No turning back? First woman makes Army’s elite 75th Ranger regiment,
    big step for women in combat”, Defense One 19 January 2017,
    https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2017/01/no-turning-back-first-woman-makes-armys-elite-
    75th-ranger-regiment-big-step-women-combat/134691/
    Vidino, Lorenzo, Marrone, Francesco and Entenmann Eva, “Fear Thy Neighbor: Radicalization and
    Jihadist Attacks in the West”, International Centre for Counter-Terrorism – The Hague (ICCT),
    2017, https://icct.nl/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/FearThyNeighbor-
    RadicalizationandJihadistAttacksintheWest.pdf
    Villarejo, Esteban, “Spanish Army Bolsters Special Forces Against Jihadism”, DefenseNews, 17
    January 2016
    Votel, Joseph L. et al., “Unconventional Warfare in the Gray Zone”, National Defense University
    Press, 1 January 2016,
    http://www.arcic.army.mil/app_Documents/SLTF/Unconventional%20Warfare%20in%20the%
    20Gray%20Zone.pdf
    169 DSCFC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    18
    Votel, Joseph L. Gen, “Statement before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on
    Emerging Threats and Capabilities”, 18 March 2015,
    http://docs.house.gov/meetings/AS/AS26/20150318/103157/HMTG-114-AS26-Wstate-
    VotelUSAJ-20150318.pdf
    Watson, Abigail, “The Golden Age of Special Operations Forces”, E-IR, 28 November 2017,
    http://www.e-ir.info/2017/11/28/the-golden-age-of-special-operations-forces/
    Weisman, Maj Michael, “NATO, Partner Spec Ops Forces rapidly deploy for Trojan Footprint 18”, Air
    National Guard, 12 June 18,
    https://www.ang.af.mil/Media/Article-Display/Article/1548092/nato-partner-spec-ops-forces-
    rapidly-deploy-for-trojan-footprint-18/
    Zenko, Micah, “Donald Trump Is Pushing America’s Special Forces Past the Breaking Point”,
    Foreign Policy, 1 August 2017, http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/01/donald-trump-is-pushing-
    americas-special-forces-past-the-breaking-point-jsoc-navy-seal/
    Zimmerman Malia, “Tough Men for Hire: Ex-Special Forces in Demand for War on Terror”,
    Military.com, 26 February 2015, www.military.com/daily-news/2015/02/26/tough-men-for-hire-
    ex-special-forces-in-demand-for-war-on-terror.html
    __________________
    DEFENCE AND SECURITY
    COMMITTEE (DSC)
    Sub-Committee on Transatlantic Defence
    and Security Cooperation (DSCTC)
    BURDEN SHARING:
    NEW COMMITMENTS IN A
    NEW ERA
    Report
    by Attila MESTERHAZY (Hungary)
    Rapporteur
    170 DSCTC 18 E rev 1 fin| Original: English | 17 November 2018
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    I. INTRODUCTION 1
    II. BURDEN SHARING DEFINED AND IN CONTEXT ...............................................................1
    III. BURDEN SHARING AS A PERENNIAL CHALLENGE IN NATO...........................................2
    A. WHY THEN THE 2% GUIDELINE? ..............................................................................2
    B. TOWARD THE WALES 2014 JOINT 2% COMMITMENT.............................................3
    IV. THE 2% DEBATE: LIMITATIONS AND BENEFITS ...............................................................4
    A. DEFENCE SPENDING DEFINED AND CRITICISED ...................................................4
    B. IS 2% VALID FOR ALL?...............................................................................................4
    C. WHAT ABOUT RISK?...................................................................................................4
    D. INPUTS, OUTPUTS OR BOTH? ..................................................................................5
    V. WARSAW DOUBLES DOWN ON ADAPTATION INCREASING PRESSURE ON THE 2%...5
    A. RECENT US VIEWS ON BURDEN SHARING .............................................................6
    B. RHETORIC VERSUS REALITY – THE RENEWED US COMMITMENT TO EUROPEAN
    SECURITY ...................................................................................................................6
    VI. TRENDS IN DEFENCE SPENDING ......................................................................................7
    A. NORTH AMERICA........................................................................................................8
    1. United states.................................................................................................................8
    2. Canada.........................................................................................................................8
    B. EUROPE ......................................................................................................................8
    1. Eastern Europe.............................................................................................................9
    a. Poland ....................................................................................................................9
    b. Romania .................................................................................................................9
    c. The Baltics..............................................................................................................9
    2. Southern Europe......................................................................................................... 10
    a. Italy....................................................................................................................... 10
    b. Greece.................................................................................................................. 10
    3. Western Europe.......................................................................................................... 11
    a. France .................................................................................................................. 11
    b. The United Kingdom ............................................................................................. 11
    c. Germany............................................................................................................... 11
    VII. INTRA-EUROPEAN GAP .................................................................................................... 12
    VIII. CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................. 13
    IX. STEPS FORWARD FOR NATO PARLIAMENTARIANS...................................................... 14
    X. EXPANDING THE DEBATE TO STRENGTHEN ALLIED SECURITY ................................. 14
    BIBLIOGRAPHY.................................................................................................................. 15
    170 DSCTC 18 E rev 1 fin
    1
    I. INTRODUCTION
    1. NATO is implementing ambitious new initiatives to adapt its defence and deterrence posture
    in response to a rapidly evolving complex international security environment. In parallel there is a
    rising expectation all NATO Allies must do more to invest in the success of these initiatives. The
    most vocal proponent of increased spending is coming from the US executive.
    2. The United States’ expectations of its Allies to do more is increasing the pressure on the
    already substantive shift in the burden sharing debate made at the 2014 Wales Summit, when Allies
    committed to moving toward dedicating 2% of their GDP toward defence spending by 2024 –
    20% of this increased spending, it was also stipulated, should be dedicated to purchasing new
    equipment and research and development (R&D).
    3. Among Allies, the burden sharing debate intensified due to the persistent fall off of
    NATO Europe and Canada’s defence spending in the wake of the Cold War, even while the
    United States took the opposite course after the 9/11 attacks. Increased pressures on the United
    States globally and the perception of some Allies’ decisions to opt out of NATO operations or tasks
    in recent years have only increased the temperature of the debate surrounding Allied contributions.
    4. Despite criticism of the 2% guideline due to its definitional and conceptual shortcomings, the
    Wales defence spending commitment has anchored the Alliance to the benchmark.
    5. This report will briefly highlight the history of the burden sharing debate in the Alliance and the
    main criticisms of the 2% guideline. It will then highlight the levels of new defence investments across
    the Alliance by region. It will conclude with an attempt to underscore the value in focusing on effective
    new defence investments by all Allies, as well as suggest several steps forward NATO
    parliamentarians can take to increase their inputs as the burden sharing discussion continues to
    gather political importance over the coming years.
    II. BURDEN SHARING DEFINED AND IN CONTEXT
    6. For the purposes of this report, burden sharing is defined as the relative weight of the
    distribution of costs and risks across Allies in pursuit of common goals.
    7. Burden sharing in NATO is subject to the political-military nature of the Organisation – the
    Alliance’s core identity is defined by efforts to guarantee the safety and security of Allied populations
    and territories. Ultimately NATO is a consensus-based organisation which implies that any operation,
    adaptation or other kind of collective action is de facto a common political goal to which Allied
    resources must be committed.
    8. Allied peace and security is the central goal of the Alliance. Throughout NATO’s history, the
    pursuit of this goal has inevitably produced a debate about the necessary means to achieve it and
    the ways in which these means will be employed.
    9. In the case of NATO, the burden sharing argument has perennially revolved around just how
    much of any appropriate military asset each Ally is able to deliver to accomplish any task. When
    taken together, these tasks ultimately seek to maintain peace and security within the Alliance and
    even to project stability abroad. To achieve this broad-based goal, NATO defines three core tasks:
    collective defence, crisis management and cooperative security.
    170 DSCTC 18 E rev 1 fin
    2
    Burden Sharing as defined by NATO
    10. NATO defence planners utilise metrics measuring financial input and military output as well as
    percentages of deployable armed forces, airframes and vessels, staff positions in NATO’s Command
    and Force Structures, as well as the requirements of the Response Force to have a clear assessment
    of contributions by each individual member state across the Alliance (Mattelaer, 2016).
    11. NATO uses seven metrics for assessing individual countries’ defence contributions, including
    the 2% of GDP formula, the 20% target of national defence budgets dedicated to equipment
    purchases and R&D, the percentage of deployable armed forces and the actual contributions
    deployed to NATO in terms of land forces, aircraft, ships and personnel dedicated to the NATO
    Command Structure (NATO, 2017a).
    III. BURDEN SHARING AS A PERENNIAL CHALLENGE IN NATO
    12. The burden sharing question has been central to Allied political leaders’ discussions since
    NATO’s founding in 1949. At the time, the relative power balance between post-war Europe and the
    United States clearly indicated the latter would play the dominant role in shaping the Alliance.
    US political leaders did, however, anticipate their agreement to any form of treaty-bound collective
    security alliance with their post-WWII allies would lead to a burden sharing dilemma. As Secretary
    of State Dean Acheson told the US Congress during the NATO ratification hearings in 1949, the
    newly forming Alliance must guarantee “nobody is getting a meal ticket from anybody else so far as
    their capacity to resist is concerned” (Czulda and Madej, 2015).
    13. To pre-empt the burden sharing problem, Article 3 was inserted in the Washington Treaty,
    which underscored the Allies’ obligations to invest in their own forces to make the whole of the
    Alliance stronger as well as to bolster each nation’s capacity for self-help.
    14. In drafting the Washington Treaty, the Alliance’s founding fathers knew all too well the
    credibility of collective defence ultimately depends on the political will of all NATO Allies to sustain
    it. As such, expectations of Allied defence spending proportionate to the necessity of maintaining
    capable forces were understood to be a fair price for every Ally to pay for the increased security
    guaranteed by NATO membership. The principle of self-help attempted to ensure no Ally would
    become a weak link in Allied efforts to defend their populations and territory.
    15. Despite various forms of political pressure on Allies to increase their defence spending by the
    United States, defence investment clearly remains a national prerogative. Throughout the history of
    the Alliance, a tacit understanding always existed acknowledging each Ally would inevitably have
    ebbs and flows in their domestic political and economic circumstances, which may preclude a steady
    or even increased defence investment at any given time. The essential, therefore, was to encourage
    a steady increase over time and to not call out individual members for ‘failing’ to live up to these
    expectations at any given time. The reason for this was clear – the maintenance of Allied solidarity
    always overrode any momentary shortcoming (Lunn and Williams, 2017).
    A. WHY THEN THE 2% GUIDELINE?
    16. Prior to its initial endorsement at a 2006 NATO Defence Ministerial, a benchmark of 2% GDP
    defence spending for aspirants emerged as a logical and feasible goal for incoming member states
    who at the time were spending approximately 1.7% GDP on defence (Lunn and Williams, 2017). In
    parallel, as Allies were taking the lead in Afghanistan in 2003, median defence spending among
    European NATO Allies and Canada had fallen to 1.7% GDP. Therefore, 2% became a guideline for
    aspirational Allied defence investments as a means of backstopping continued “peace dividend”
    defence spending cuts and as a goalpost for incoming members.
    170 DSCTC 18 E rev 1 fin
    3
    17. Unfortunately, the 2% defence spending guideline for Allies surfaced just before the
    2008 financial crisis, during which defence budgets became prime targets for cash-strapped
    governments across the Alliance. To make matters worse, a growing divergence in transatlantic
    defence spending was well underway in parallel.
    18. After the 2001 terrorist attacks, defence spending by the United States increased dramatically.
    The United States assumed a global war footing as it sought to defend and deter against terrorism
    – the most obvious and burdensome were its commitments in both Afghanistan and Iraq. NATO
    member states invoked Article 5 for the first time in the history of the Alliance in defence of the
    United States and soon took the lead in Afghanistan. As the Alliance’s expeditionary operations and
    missions continued, however, a growing number of Allies began to reduce their commitment or even
    to reject partnering in Washington’s conception of broader Atlantic security – the starkest example
    being NATO’s Libya operation, which functioned more as a coalition of the willing than a
    whole-of-alliance effort.
    19. In parallel, instead of an increase in the defence expenditures necessary to continue assisting
    in Atlantic security tasks, declines in NATO Europe and Canada continued. By 2011, median NATO
    European and Canadian spending had declined to 1.52% GDP. The transatlantic gap in defence
    investments had grown to approximately 70%, as the United States now accounted for
    USD 712 billion of the USD 1.012 trillion total Allied defence spending. In light of the ever-widening
    transatlantic defence spending gap and the waning political will to commit to US-defined Atlantic
    security interests, what had previously been confined to grumblings in Washington grew to sharp
    public rebukes and chastisements by 2011. Robert Gates, then US Secretary of Defense, openly
    questioned the future of the Alliance in the absence of stronger political will and renewed defence
    investments from European Allies to participate in NATO missions and operations more capably
    (Shanker, 2011).
    20. Secretary Gates’ remarks reflected the strain the United States was facing at the time, as it
    was bogged down in “forever” wars in the broader Middle East and beyond. Still, the comments
    reflected the dire reality – the transatlantic gap had become a chasm, and, as Mr Gates bluntly
    stated: “[…] there will be dwindling appetite and patience in the US Congress – and in the American
    body politic writ large – to expend increasingly precious funds on behalf of nations that are apparently
    unwilling to devote the necessary resources […] to be serious and capable partners in their own
    defense” (Shanker, 2011).
    21. Mr Gates continued with a stark depiction of the strain the burden sharing dilemma had
    wrought upon the Alliance as he lamented the growing divide “between those willing and able to pay
    the price and bear the burden of commitments, and those who enjoy the benefits of NATO
    membership but don’t want to share the risks and costs” (Shanker, 2011).
    B. TOWARD THE WALES 2014 JOINT 2% COMMITMENT
    22. The rapidly deteriorating security environment of 2014 brought the burden sharing debate front
    and centre as a swift set of political decisions by the North Atlantic Council (NAC) sought to bring
    about the most significant adaptation of Alliance posture and structure since the end of the Cold War.
    As NATO looked to make its deterrent posture more mobile and dynamic to face a range of
    conventional and non-conventional threats from the east and the south, attention necessarily
    returned to ensuring member states were investing in the required means to achieve this new
    deterrence posture and subsequent force readiness.
    23. As the Defence and Security Committee’s (DSC) general report [168 DSC 18 E fin] on NATO
    deterrence demonstrates in greater detail, the new forces and structures needed to support the
    Readiness Action Plan (RAP) and the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) required
    significant quality defence outputs from all Allies. Given the perceived range of threats from the
    conventional to the asymmetrical, an emphasis on increased spending as well as a focus on new
    170 DSCTC 18 E rev 1 fin
    4
    equipment acquisition and research and development made their way into the defence investment
    commitment at the Wales Summit by September 2014. NATO Heads of State and Government for
    the first time made a public statement confirming their intentions to increase their defence spending
    toward 2% GDP, at least 20% of which would be focused on equipment purchases and R&D1
    . Such
    a joint commitment was a radical departure from previous efforts to address burden sharing
    concerns.
    IV. THE 2% DEBATE: LIMITATIONS AND BENEFITS
    24. This Assembly discusses and debates the question of burden sharing in NATO with regular
    frequency. The question of the necessity of allocating 2% GDP to defence spending is always a
    central part of the discussion. According to both NATO PA Defence Committee discussions and the
    broader policy world, there are four principal points of debate: 1) The lack of consensus about the
    definition of defence spending; 2) The appropriateness of a blanket 2% expectation for all Allies;
    3) The question of broadening defence investment expectations to incorporate risk; and, perhaps
    most relevantly, 4) The concern the 2% benchmark is too focused on inputs rather than outputs.
    A. DEFENCE SPENDING DEFINED AND CRITICISED
    25. NATO defines defence expenditures as including defence ministry budgets, pensions,
    peacekeeping or humanitarian operations, research and development costs2
    , financial assistance
    by one Ally to another, and expenditure on NATO infrastructure. Benefits to veterans or war damage
    repairs, as well as civil defence expenditures are excluded (NATO, 2017b).
    26. The argument put forward in Assembly debates and in academic writings about the lack of
    clear definition of defence spending rests on the notion that reported figures from individual members
    across a range of organisations vary too much to make a clear assessment of who is spending what
    and how. For example, reports of national defence spending by NATO and the UN on the same
    member state can vary significantly – in 2013 the United Kingdom reported USD 62.3 billion to NATO
    and USD 57.7 billion to the UN (IISS, 2017). (The United States currently allocates approximately
    USD 60 billion additional funds to the Overseas Contingency Operations budget; European
    Deterrence Initiative (EDI) funding is drawn from this sum. This finding is not found in US declared
    defence spending when calculating along the above parameters.
    27. Further complicating the issue is the fact there is no consistent measure of GDP either – from
    the IMF to the World Bank to varying national measures, all broad-based GDP calculations differ
    from one another slightly.
    B. IS 2% VALID FOR ALL?
    28. The crux of the criticism surrounding the blanket application of a 2% benchmark is
    straightforward. Some Allies have global security interests extending beyond NATO Euro-Atlantic
    security responsibilities. The United States and, to some extent, France and the United Kingdom
    dedicate a portion of their defence spending to goals extending beyond the remit of NATO’s
    Euro-Atlantic responsibilities. For example, the United States allocates approximately 3.6% GDP to
    defence spending, but how much of this is purposed exclusively to its Pacific interests? By contrast,
    it can be argued all of Estonia’s 2.14% benefits NATO-related security interests (Dobbs, 2017).
    C. WHAT ABOUT RISK?
    1 It should be noted, however, that Germany and Canada joined forces during the Wales Summit to ensure
    the 2% guideline was not going to become a legal commitment, but rather a non-binding benchmark
    (Driver, 2016).
    2 “Including those for projects that do not successfully lead to production of equipment.”
    170 DSCTC 18 E rev 1 fin
    5
    29. Including a measure of risk in Allied activities is also a valid criticism. While two Allies may
    deploy forces to any particular operation, one may not allow for their forces to be in the line of fire
    while the other does. Good examples of Allies consistently willing to assume greater operational
    risks are Denmark and Norway – from counter-ISIS training and precision-strike missions to active
    combat roles in Afghanistan. Still, while both nations have increased their investments from 1.17%
    to 1.21% GDP and from 1.5% to 1.61% GDP respectively over the past four years, they fall relatively
    far below the 2% benchmark (NATO, 2018).
    30. Should the weight of such contributions be greater given the value of their outputs? This
    argument leads directly into the most often cited criticism of the 2% benchmark – too much emphasis
    on inputs, rather than on the quality of outputs.
    D. INPUTS, OUTPUTS OR BOTH?
    31. Many critics contend that simply measuring inputs neglects the core issue at hand in this era
    of adaptation. The real focus should be on those capabilities and contributions that most effectively
    reinforce NATO’s deterrence and collective defence. What good, for example, is 2% if over 70% of
    that sum is dedicated to personnel costs? Further, if new equipment purchases focus
    disproportionately on items such as tanks, how fit for purpose would such acquisitions be for the
    Alliance (Braw, 2017)?
    32. The input versus output argument is clearly the most valid criticism of the 2% benchmark. It
    has spurred on the current persistent buzz rhetoric from NATO HQ seeking to get Allies to focus on
    cash, commitments, and capabilities. The alliteration is a means of driving home three key ideas:
    1) inputs are a de facto necessity to have outputs; 2) political commitment is necessary to make
    increased defence funding available, and 3) the combination of the two should be focused on the
    acquisition of the capabilities necessary to address security challenges to the Alliance.
    33. Critics of the 2% benchmark also note the NATO definition of defence expenditures (as
    outlined above) does not address some of the broader, and ultimately more nuanced and difficult to
    calculate, challenges to security today. This extends from the range of political, economic, and social
    disruptions caused by hybrid tactics to dealing with the root causes of terrorism and climate change
    through such channels as development assistance and new regulations. Actions to bolster
    whole-of-government resilience in the face of potential non-conventional hybrid tactics do not figure
    in the above-mentioned criteria for Allied defence spending reporting.
    34. The most often cited example of an alternative approach is the 3% proposal made by
    Wolfgang Ischinger at the February 2017 Munich Security Conference. Ischinger’s proposal would
    include 3% to deal with “crisis prevention, development assistance, and defence”. The 2% defence
    spending metric would be coupled with the UN goal of nations dedicating of .7% GDP to development
    aid, etc.
    V. WARSAW DOUBLES DOWN ON ADAPTATION INCREASING PRESSURE ON THE 2%
    35. In the wake of the Wales commitment, decisions to expand the breadth and depth of NATO
    adaptation at the 2016 Warsaw Summit only further reinforced the sentiment Allies needed to
    accelerate defence investments to meet the “2&20 pledge” and, for those member states not already
    meeting the standard, a credible plan to achieve the benchmark by 2024 was expected.
    36. A key milestone achieved at the Warsaw Summit is the Joint Declaration formalising NATO-EU
    cooperation. The statement identifies seven concrete areas of cooperation, namely hybrid threats,
    maritime security, cyber security, defence capabilities, defence industry and research, joint exercises
    and building resilience in Europe’s East and South. The current security environment likely grants
    the statement more weight than it would in a different geopolitical context. The declaration offers the
    170 DSCTC 18 E rev 1 fin
    6
    22 members NATO shares with the EU unprecedented opportunities for increased cooperation, joint
    capability development, cost-effective platforms for enhanced complementarity and duplication
    elimination.
    37. The remaining post-Warsaw challenges relate to the Alliance’s ability to show continued
    solidarity and credibility in the face of unpredictable security challenges – such as Russia’s reactions
    to NATO’s new posture – and the ability to maintain unity in circumstances of continued refugee and
    migrant flows and conflict in regions along NATO’s Southern and Eastern flanks.
    38. Although the Alliance is witnessing an overall convergence of threat perception in terms of a
    NATO-wide agreement on the severity of the various geographical and resilience challenges,
    geography still dictates the security perceptions of all member states. For example,
    Southern European NATO states perceive the challenges in the Middle East and North Africa
    (MENA) region to be of more immediate concern than the Central-Eastern European and Baltic
    states. Such a divergence of perspective still challenges the Alliance’s ability for collective action.
    39. There is an imperative today for all Allies to understand the dichotomy between Eastern and
    Southern flank challenges is false; threats to any Ally’s security will inherently affect the entire
    Alliance.
    A. RECENT US VIEWS ON BURDEN SHARING
    40. President Donald Trump is dramatically accelerating the burden sharing debate. During his
    campaign, candidate Trump called NATO “obsolete”, claimed European countries “owe massive
    amounts of money” to NATO and pointed out the unfairness of “free-riding” towards US taxpayers
    (Rohac, 2017). President Trump’s statements only served to sharpen previous US leaders’ criticism
    of the burden-sharing dilemma in the Alliance. US Secretary of Defence James Mattis has also
    warned the United States might “moderate its commitment” if Allies do not shoulder more of the
    burden (MacAskill, 2018).
    41. During the 2018 annual NATO PA Defence Committee visit to Washington, US policymakers
    also delivered a loud and clear message: The United States is increasing its commitment to NATO,
    and it expects increased investments in parallel from its Allies. Officials told the delegation the Trump
    Administration would make burden sharing among Allies one of its principal goals at the July 2018
    NATO summit in Brussels. The other main priorities, deterrence and defence as well as
    counterterrorism, officials stressed, go hand in hand with Allies’ responsibility to meet their defence
    spending commitments. The Director of the Office of European Security and Political-Military Affairs
    at the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, Michael Murphy, told the delegation: “The Wales
    Pledge is at the forefront of US officials’ minds in the run-up to Brussels.” Mr Murphy insisted all
    Allies must be able to present credible plans to get there, to which he added only approximately 13
    were currently on track to do so. “If these numbers are still present at the summit, this will be
    problematic – please carry this message back to your governments and constituencies,” he warned.
    42. Burden sharing was indeed a key element of the NATO Brussels summit. The myriad variables
    driving increased investment in domestic defence programmes and Allied tasks have had a clear
    impact across the Alliance. In Brussels, Allies again pledged their commitment to the 2014 Wales
    Defence Investment Pledge, with promises “to submit credible national plans on its implementation,
    including the spending guidelines for 2024, planned capabilities, and contributions” (Brussels
    Summit Declaration, 2018).
    B. RHETORIC VERSUS REALITY – THE RENEWED US COMMITMENT TO
    EUROPEAN SECURITY
    43. The Trump Administration’s December 2017 National Security Strategy (NSS) defines the
    current international security environment as one of global competition at all levels, as the
    170 DSCTC 18 E rev 1 fin
    7
    administration views both China and Russia as seeking peer rival status vis-à-vis the United States.
    An important line of effort to counter this, the document contends, is to build stronger alliances. The
    NSS underscores Washington’s desire to remain active in Europe: “A strong and free Europe is of
    vital importance to the United States” (NSS, 2017). The NSS also says the United States “expects”
    Allies to fulfil their defence spending commitments but stops short of making US support conditional
    (Brattberg, 2018).
    44. US policymakers also attempted to lay to rest any lingering doubts in delegation members’
    minds about the United States’ Article 5 commitment during the Defence and Security Committee’s
    most recent visit. As Thomas Goffus, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for European
    and NATO Policy, confirmed: “The United States’ Article 5 guarantee is iron clad.” Mr Goffus also
    stated the United States would continue to focus on the European Deterrence Initiative (EDI):
    “Deterrence is what we do together, rather than the US-focused European Reassurance Initiative
    (ERI), as the EDI was previously known.”
    45. The United States recently announced a planned allocation of USD 6.5 billion to the EDI in
    2019, a USD 1.7 billion increase from last year and USD 3.1 billion more than allocated in 2017. As
    the DSC’s general report highlights more thoroughly, the ERI/EDI has funded a significant increase
    in US presence in Eastern Europe, which supports more exercising, infrastructure, equipment
    prepositioning, and partner capacity-development efforts. In many ways, the proof of
    US commitment is in the USD 10+ billion already spent or planned to reinforce Allied defence and
    deterrence in Europe.
    46. The United States’ recent increased investments come on top of an already substantial existing
    commitment by Washington to guarantee the security of all Allies, particularly those in Europe. For
    example, the United States maintains about 68,000 active military personnel and an additional
    16,000 Department of Defense civilian personnel in its own as well as shared facilities across
    Europe. The 2018 US defence budget allocates USD 24.4 billion to cover the expenses of US military
    assets in Europe. Further, as noted in the Committee’s [161 DSC 17 E] report on NATO’s ballistic
    missile defence initiative, the backbone of NATO’s current ballistic missile defence system is funded
    directly by the US Missile Defence Agency’s budget. The United States also funds approximately
    22% of NATO common funding to support and maintain facilities, common procurement of new
    equipment, as well as an increasing pace of training, exercises, and operations. The United States
    also maintains a relatively small amount of direct bilateral military assistance to individual Allies and
    partners in Europe.
    VI. TRENDS IN DEFENCE SPENDING
    47. Relatively stable economies and the steady growth of European member states make it no
    longer possible to hide behind the pretext of lingering effects of the financial crisis. The EU bloc is
    the globe’s second largest economy when measured as a collective GDP. According to Eurostat,
    the EU’s statistical office, Eurozone GDP is growing 2.5% on a yearly basis and 2017 represented
    the fifth consecutive year of growth.
    48. It is clear Europe is investing in defence again. This represents a sharp contrast with the
    pre-2014 period, when the Euro-Atlantic region was the sole region exempted from global defence
    expenditure growth (IISS, 2015). Additionally, the most recent report from NATO shows that defence
    spending by European countries and Canada has risen from USD 256 billion in 2016 to a projected
    USD 312 billion in 2018 (NATO, 2018). As the NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, said
    quite succinctly about the changing dynamics in NATO Allied defence spending this past June: “We
    now have four consecutive years of real increases in defence spending. All Allies have stopped the
    cuts. All Allies are increasing defence spending. More Allies are spending 2% of GDP on defence
    and the majority of Allies now have plans to do so by 2024. Across European Allies and Canada, we
    expect a real increase this year of 3.8%. This means that, since 2014, European Allies and Canada
    170 DSCTC 18 E rev 1 fin
    8
    will have spent an additional USD 87 billion on defence. When it comes to capabilities Allies have
    committed to investing 20% on their defence spending on major equipment. This year, 15 Allies are
    expected to meet the guideline, and I count on more to do so in the coming years” (NATO, 2018).
    49. Defence spending is driven by both increased threat perception and regional economic growth,
    but total spending continues to decline when compared to most countries’ GDP growth rates (Jane’s
    Defence Weekly, 2018a).
    A. NORTH AMERICA
    1. United States
    50. The United States is putting considerable emphasis on increased defence spending. The 2019
    National Defense Authorization Act, passed by Congress and signed by President Trump in
    August 2018, allocates USD 716 billion to defence spending and investment – an increase from
    President Trump’s earlier request of USD 686 billion (US DoD, 2018). If all of the authorised spending
    allocations are funded, this will represent an approximately USD 76 billion increase in defence
    spending by the United States since 2015. As noted above, this figure does not include the billions
    being spent, for example, on the European Deterrence Initiative, which falls in the Overseas
    Contingency Operations budget. Defence spending in the United States is witnessing its fastest
    increase rate in a decade (Jane’s Defence Weekly, 2018a).
    51. The Third Offset Strategy has also played a role in budget allocations in terms of raising
    awareness of the United States’ eroding technological edge and the imperative of sustaining
    US advantage through innovation in equipment and military doctrine.
    2. Canada
    52. The Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, has expressed a commitment to reverse the
    decline in Canada’s defence spending and enhance its role in NATO. Indeed, Canada’s recent
    defence policy review, “Strong, Secure, Engaged” (SSE), includes a renewed emphasis on hard
    power and the will to decrease reliance on the United States on defence matters through substantial
    investments (IISS, 2018). The Government of Canada released figures in May 2018 showing that
    capital spending fell short in the SSE’s first year by USD 2.3 billion. Figures predict further shortfalls,
    with the SSE promising USD 24.3 billion in spending for the 2020-2021 fiscal year while the
    Department of National Defence’s 2018-2019 Departmental plan is forecasting total spending at
    USD 20.1 billion for the same period, a USD 4.2 billion shortfall (CGAI, January 2018; Canadian
    Department of National Defence, 2018).
    53. Defence spending only rose by USD 1.1 billion over three years from 2014 to 2017, however,
    leading some to question how Canada will fulfil its above-stated ambitions. The Canadian Global
    Affairs Institute has attributed the underspending to “a dysfunctional defence procurement system at
    Canada’s Department of National Defence” (CGAI, May 2018).
    B. EUROPE
    54. Defence spending continued to increase on aggregate across European NATO member states
    in 2016, from USD 255.7 billion to USD 256.5 billion from 2015 to 2016 and showing a 0.3% increase
    (Béraud-Sudreau and Giegerich, 2017). In terms of defence expenditure as share of GDP in
    European NATO Allies, a steady decrease can be seen from 2009 when the spending was 1.69%
    on average, reaching 1.45% in 2013 and going as low as 1.40% in 2015, only to rebound slightly in
    the past three years to 1.5% in 2018.
    55. Overall, in real terms, NATO Europe has steadily increased total defence spending by about
    USD 40.5 billion since 2015 (NATO, 2018).
    170 DSCTC 18 E rev 1 fin
    9
    1. EASTERN EUROPE
    56. Defence spending in Eastern European states has witnessed a 24% increase in real terms
    between 2014 and 2017, clearly motivated by Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, ongoing conflict
    in eastern Ukraine, and Russia’s large-scale “snap” military exercises in the region. Budgetary
    projections indicate Eastern Europe will deliver the fastest growth in defence spending, which rose
    to an average of 1.6% GDP in 2017 from 1.3% in 2013 and is predicted to reach 1.8% by 2020
    (Jane’s Defence Weekly, 2018a).
    a. Poland
    57. As the largest frontline state in Europe’s Eastern Flank, Poland’s key strategic position makes
    it particularly vulnerable to Russian interference and potential aggression. With regards to burden
    sharing, Poland surged over the 2% threshold in 2015, only to waver and decline from 2016 to 2017.
    According to the most recent reporting by NATO, Poland’s budget is to grow to USD 12.08 billion in
    2018 to bring total defence spending to 1.98% GDP (NATO, 2018). Poland is poised to complete
    construction for the land-based Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defence system this year and plans to
    acquire new F-35 Lightning II jets and used F-16 fighter jets from the United States and the 3D mobile
    surveillance radar NUR-15M (Adamowski, 2017a).
    58. The Polish government says it is committed to reattain a defence investment level equalling
    2% in the near future and even intends to increase it to 2.5% by 2030 (IISS, 2018).
    b. Romania
    59. Romania has increased its defence budget from USD 2.6 billion to USD 3.6 billion from 2014
    to 2017 (NATO, 2018). Romanian defence spending is estimated to reach 1.93% GDP in 2018. The
    government’s plan is to reach USD 5 billion by 2020, which would push it above the 2% benchmark.
    60. An active NATO member, host of the Aegis Ashore missile defence system and of several
    multinational NATO forces, Romania is only 200 miles away from Crimea. After the inauguration of
    the Aegis Ashore in 2016, President Vladimir Putin warned Romania and Poland they are in
    Moscow’s “crosshairs” (Hope, 2017). In response, Romania set out plans to purchase the US-made
    Patriot missile and air defence system.
    61. Furthermore, Romania is also an enthusiastic participant in the EU’s Permanent Structured
    Cooperation (PESCO) and related defence integration initiatives. As the EU’s fastest growing
    economy, Romania’s procurement list includes fast corvettes, armoured troop carriers,
    multiple-launch rocket systems and Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) systems
    (McLeary, 2017).
    c. The Baltics
    62. Directly bordered by Russia, including its Kaliningrad exclave, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia
    see NATO membership as vital to their security strategies. Due to their perceived vulnerability, the
    three states make up a key strategic area to NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence battalion
    deployments. In parallel, all three states have dramatically increased their defence spending.
    63. Overall military spending in the Baltic is poised to double in real terms compared to 2014
    (Jane’s Defence Weekly, 2018a). Estonia’s defence budget has been steadily growing from
    USD 480 million in 2013 to USD 637 million in 2018. Latvia’s defence budget more than doubled
    from 2013 to 2018, going from USD 281 million to USD 701 million. Lithuania followed suit by
    increasing spending from USD 355 million to USD 1.06 billion over the same period (NATO, 2018).
    170 DSCTC 18 E rev 1 fin
    10
    64. All three states have ambitious procurement goals both independently and jointly, including a
    plan for an air defence covering all three territories. Estonia’s procurement plans include
    11,000 automatic firearms during 2018-2021, infantry fighting vehicles, K9 howitzers,
    communications systems, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and long-range anti-tank missile
    systems. The Latvian government also plans purchases of combat vehicles and M109 self-propelled
    howitzers (Adamowski, 2017b).
    65. With a vast spurge in defence spending, Lithuania plans to acquire PzH 2000 self-propelled
    howitzers, the Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS), as well as transport
    and combat helicopters. Additionally, Riga’s and Vilnius’ defence procurements are to be
    synchronised for both armed forces following a recent agreement (Adamowski, 2017b).
    66. In tandem with Eastern Europe becoming the fastest growing defence spender, these states
    are all forecast to meet the 2% of GDP target, together with the United States, the United Kingdom,
    Turkey and Greece.
    2. SOUTHERN EUROPE
    a. Italy
    67. Although Italy recognises the threat posed by Russian aggression, Rome’s principal defence
    concerns focus across the Mediterranean. Italy’s defence spending trends are slightly volatile, but
    still in decline, moving from USD 26.6 billion in 2013 to USD 25.78 billion in 2018 (NATO, 2018). The
    Eurozone crisis has exposed significant structural economic weaknesses in the country, which have
    contributed to the decline in spending.
    68. A defence white paper and a parallel defence plan were released by the Italian government in
    2017 outlining goals to increase personnel, expand joint exercising, and upgrade equipment. Despite
    sector volatility, Italy retains a strong defence industry and remains an active member in NATO
    exercises, air-policing missions and operations while also leading the EU’s Operation Sophia in the
    Mediterranean (IISS, 2018). As such, Italy is expected to maintain a line of continuity in defence as
    it is deepening involvement in key European defence projects and military operations (Marrone,
    2018).
    b. Greece
    69. Before the Eurozone crisis and economic difficulties, Greek armed forces have traditionally
    been well-funded. Although in recent years major procurement has been halted and military
    exercises reduced, Greece is now strengthening maritime-patrol and anti-submarine-warfare
    capabilities, bolstering surveillance in the Mediterranean, enhancing rotary-wing transport capability
    and upgrading its F-16 fleet (IISS, 2018).
    70. In 2013, Greece spent USD 5.31 billion on defence. It declined steadily in ensuing years,
    though 2017 did witness a small growth from USD 4.64 billion to USD 4.75 billion when compared
    to 2016. Greece is estimated to spend USD 5 billion in 2018. In 2013 Greece allocated 3.08% of its
    GDP to defence, in 2017 it had fallen to 2.38% (NATO, 2017b). While Greece still technically makes
    the 2% GDP commitment, this has only been possible due to the severe contraction of the Greek
    economy in recent years.
    71. Greece is often an example highlighted by critics of the 2% guideline, as over 70% of the
    country’s total defence spending goes to personnel costs, including pensions, rather than concrete
    investments in armed forces and readiness (NATO, 2018). In 2018, however, Greece is expected to
    spend 12.4% on equipment and another 24% on functional expenditures.
    170 DSCTC 18 E rev 1 fin
    11
    3. WESTERN EUROPE
    72. Western Europe averaged only a 2% increase in 2017 (Jane’s Defence Weekly, 2018a). While
    Eastern Europe is prioritising military modernisation and procurement, the larger Western European
    powers such as France and the United Kingdom struggle to sustain and develop capabilities
    proportional with the size and scale of their global ambitions.
    a. France
    73. The French President, Emmanuel Macron, has announced simultaneous cuts and increases:
    almost USD 1 billion in cuts to the 2017 defence budget to limit public deficit coupled with an increase
    of USD 2 billion to the 2018 budget. The French defence budget declined from USD 52.3 billion to
    USD 46.1 billion from 2013 to 2017 (IISS, 2015, 2018). The 2018 defence budget, however,
    increased to bring French defence spending as a percentage of GDP up to 1.82 from 1.77 in 2017,
    equalling a total of USD 52 billion. The 2018 budget also confirmed the will of the French government
    to reach the 2% GDP spending objective by 2025. On July 13 2018, the military programming law
    for 2019-2025 – passed by both chambers of the representative government – noted the intention to
    invest EUR 295 billion in defence from 2019 to 2025 (Ministère des Armées, 2018). France has
    made it clear it seeks to maintain full spectrum capabilities to meet global security challenges to
    French and Allied interests. The increased investments outlined in the new military programming law
    will be crucial for it to be able to do so.
    b. The United Kingdom
    74. As Europe’s largest defence spender, the United Kingdom’s defence budget decreased to
    USD 50.7 billion in 2017 from USD 52.6 billion in 2016, far below the 2014 USD 65.6 billion figures
    (IISS, 2018; NATO, 2017b). In 2018, however, it is expected to increase to USD 61.5 billion. In
    January, the British government disclosed the initiation of its third defence review which will assess
    the UK’s security posture and set spending priorities. After the Brexit referendum, the government
    launched the National Security Capability Review to ensure that British capabilities are able to meet
    its foreign policy targets (Jane’s Defence Weekly, 2018b).
    75. Britain’s defence review is said to formulate an industrial strategy, to adapt procurement to
    current requirements, and to aim to integrate cyber and electronic warfare as well as artificial
    intelligence considerations when enhancing defence capabilities. Brexit is likely to increase the
    British commitments to NATO, as the terms of third country participation in the EU’s new defence
    pact, PESCO and the European Defence Fund (EDF) scheme have yet to be determined.
    c. Germany
    76. Defence has traditionally been a politically sensitive issue in Germany for clear historical
    reasons. Recently, however, the motor of Franco-German cooperation on defence has been driving
    the European Union’s unprecedented cooperation on security matters. As a staunch promoter of
    European integration, Germany’s hopes are that instruments such as PESCO, the EDF and
    Coordinated Annual Review on Defence (CARD) will not only boost European capabilities and
    strengthen the EU pillar in NATO, but also deepen European integration. The development of the
    EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) has been a key focus of German foreign policy.
    77. After a sharp decline in 2014-15 from USD 46.1 to 39.8 billion, Germany’s defence investments
    have been steadily increasing, reaching USD 44.6 billion in 2017 (IISS, 2015, 2018). Defence is high
    on the current German government’s agenda, with Minister Ursula von der Leyen announcing an
    intention to increase the defence budget by USD 4-5 billion annually until 2030 (Moelling, 2016).
    Consequently, Germany is expected to spend USD 51 billion in 2018 (NATO, 2018).
    170 DSCTC 18 E rev 1 fin
    12
    78. Germany’s contribution to NATO burden sharing by meeting the 2% target has been widely
    present in the debate, as Minister von der Leyen reaffirmed this goal – though it is highly unlikely,
    given the pledged increases come nowhere near the approximately USD 70 billion additional funding
    needed to reach this goal.
    79. A slate of recent reports about the lamentable state of the land, air, and sea forces show the
    energy to renew defence investments is sorely needed in Germany. At present, reports indicate not
    a single one of Germany’s 212A-type submarines is able to leave port. This is part of a broader trend
    wherein entire German weapons systems are unusable due to lack of funding for spare parts and
    proper maintenance (Buck, 2018).
    Trends in European Equipment and R&D Investments
    80. European defence spending on major equipment and research and development for future
    weapons systems is increasing across the board but focuses on priorities defined by differing threat
    perspectives. Total defence investments reached USD 58.7 billion in 2017, with northern and central
    European states outpacing their southern and western neighbours in terms of rate of increased
    investment. Broadly speaking, the kinds of investments can be divided into two principal categories:
    defence acquisition for power projection or for territorial defence – with the geographic divide
    between the two again falling around divergent poles of threat perception. Accordingly, Western and
    Southern European Allies are acquiring more ISR systems and naval and air assets, while central
    and northern European Allies are acquiring more combined heavy arms systems such as armoured
    vehicles, artillery systems, and air defences (Béraud-Sudreau and Giegerich, 2018).
    VII. INTRA-EUROPEAN GAP
    81. European military spending has sustained four consecutive years of real growth. NATO’s
    European member states on aggregate have sustained between 3-5% defence budget increases
    over the past three years. In 2017 the largest increases in real-term defence spending growth were
    in the Baltic States, Germany, and Romania (NATO, 2018). Yet, there is some variation across
    regions, as spending in northern and central Europe grew by 5.5%, while southern and western
    Europe only saw an increase of about 2.5% (Béraud-Sudreau and Giegerich, 2018).
    82. A closer look upon member’s defence spending reveals underlying problems preventing a
    clear-cut assessment of proportional inputs and outputs. While a full harmonisation of defence
    planning among nations is far-fetched, solutions for greater congruity are needed in order to identify
    metrics for ensuring defence spending is converted into concrete outputs beneficial for the Alliance’s
    post-2014 adaptation.
    83. Lack of defence cooperation between European countries is estimated to cost anywhere from
    EUR 25 to EUR 100 billion every year in needless duplications of effort or extra subsidisation needed
    to make up for the lack of economies of scale. As such, the current state of the European defence
    market is characterised by protectionism, duplication, and fragmentation. Recent approximations
    place 80% of procurement and over 90% of research and technology projects in the hands of national
    authorities (European Commission, 2017a, b). The EU’s landmark defence projects such as PESCO
    and its financial stimulus for joint capability development and research, the European Defence Fund,
    aim to remedy the current fragmentation.
    84. To assess progress across the Alliance, NATO Allies agreed to submit defence spending plans
    by the end of 2017 which should outline means of achieving the 2% target by 2024. The exercise
    proved less useful than intended: several countries submitted three-year plans while others planned
    beyond 2024, and many failed outright to plan to reach the 2% target. Currently, 15 out of
    29 countries have announced clear plans of reaching the target.
    170 DSCTC 18 E rev 1 fin
    13
    VIII. CONCLUSIONS
    85. Aware most NATO member states are now increasing their defence spending, the Alliance is
    seeking to find the means to maintain momentum towards the spending pledge goal. As a result, an
    effort is being made to paint a clearer picture of what increased defence spending efforts by Allies
    are producing. As of March 2017, Allies are expected to publish annual defence spending plans
    detailing three key elements – cash, capabilities, and commitments: a) how much they are spending
    and how they intend to reach the defence spending pledge goal if they have not already; b) how they
    are investing in NATO-required capabilities; and, c) what contributions are made to and planned for
    NATO’s current operations and missions.
    86. The results have been mixed, as some plans do not go far enough while others surpass the
    2024 goal set out in the Defence Spending commitment of 2014. Some Allies have yet to submit
    them. Clearly the ability to produce feasible and acceptable plans will continue to be an Alliance
    priority.
    87. Still, as this draft report highlights, the Alliance’s relatively radical shift on the burden sharing
    debate at the 2014 Wales Summit imposes upon Allies a criterion to which they have now all
    committed. Much of the debate surrounding burden sharing today centres on the shortcomings of
    the 2% guideline: it lacks clear definition; US defence funding serves global interests, while most
    Allies’ serves Euro-Atlantic security interests; it does not calculate risk; it fails to emphasise the
    quality and effectiveness of outputs, etc.
    88. Despite the rhetoric and challenges laid down by both Candidate and President Trump,
    however, the United States has in fact doubled-down on its commitment to European security – the
    EDI is funding a significant increase in US presence in Eastern Europe, supporting more exercising,
    infrastructure, equipment prepositioning, and partner capacity development efforts. In many ways,
    the proof of US commitment is in the USD 10+ billion already spent or planned to reinforce its already
    significant commitment to Allied defence and deterrence in Europe.
    89. Another clear message coming from Washington is the bipartisan Congressional support for a
    strong Alliance. As the US delegation to the NATO PA has noted on several occasions, the increased
    efforts by the United States to bolster European security is strongly supported by the United States
    Congress – in both houses, by both parties. The political will to sustain and reinforce the transatlantic
    link is evidenced by the high levels of support for European security in the 2019 National Defence
    Authorization Act (NDAA), reported by the House Armed Services Committee this past May. The
    2019 NDAA passed the US House of Representatives in a 359-54 vote in July, while it passed the
    US Senate 87-10 in early August. Further, the United States Senate has recently expanded the
    breadth and depth of its support for NATO via the re-establishment of the Senate NATO Observer
    Group this past July. The strong role the US Congress plays in shaping US foreign and security
    policy should not be overlooked, and the signals are clear – the United States is doing its part to
    meet the challenges facing the transatlantic security environment and it expects its Allies to step up
    and do the same in the interest of transatlantic collective security.
    90. As is made clear by the recent publications of the US National Security Strategy and the
    National Defense Strategy, the United States feels the pressure of a changing international security
    environment. To stave off the challenges of potential near peer competitors, it will not only boost its
    domestic defence investment efforts, it also views strong alliances as key to taking on the challenge.
    In fact, the NSS even underscores the vital nature of European security to the United States – a key
    reminder of the importance of the transatlantic link.
    91. NATO Europe and Canada clearly now feel the pressure of the changing security environment
    both in the Euro-Atlantic area and globally. This is driving new investments in defence – particularly
    in Eastern Europe. Still, many Allies remain far from achieving the expectations of the “2&20 pledge”
    on defence investments. And, while arguments against the limitations of the 2% guideline are
    170 DSCTC 18 E rev 1 fin
    14
    certainly valid, inputs are certainly needed for quality outputs, which all Allies now realise are vital to
    build and sustain the mobile and dynamic defence and deterrence posture outlined at the last two
    summits.
    IX. STEPS FORWARD FOR NATO PARLIAMENTARIANS
    92. NATO has a relatively well-established means for identifying Allied defence sector
    shortcomings – the NATO Defence Planning Process (NDPP). The NDPP runs on a four-year cycle
    to align NATO military staff needs to fulfil their missions with what Allies are actually bringing to the
    table. Member state parliamentarians can familiarise themselves with the NDPP and their country’s
    level of coordination and synchronisation in their defence planning and procurement processes to
    meet the needs set forth by Alliance military leaders.
    93. NATO parliamentarians can also solicit information from their respective defence
    establishments about how their nations are not only responding to NATO requirements, but also
    working to streamline spending to make their current contributions more effective. In addition, as all
    Allies are likely to seek to channel new spending into their defence sectors, it is imperative such
    spending is well allocated – more focus on new effective equipment, research and development or
    exercising over top-heavy personnel costs should be a priority.
    94. NATO parliamentarians can and should also familiarise themselves with the breadth and depth
    of NATO adaptation decisions made at Wales, Warsaw, and Brussels. This will bring a greater
    understanding to the need for increased defence spending that will contribute effectively to the
    Alliance today.
    X. EXPANDING THE DEBATE TO STRENGTHEN ALLIED SECURITY
    95. It is clear from recent ministerial meetings and briefings the United States expects NATO
    European Allies to do more in the fight against terrorism. The United States will likely continue to
    take the lead in the denial of safe operating space for terrorist groups across the globe – but it will
    certainly look to its Allies for assistance when addressing the more long-term challenges of investing
    in the broader security measures needed to address the root causes of violent extremism.
    96. Perhaps European Allies can thereby broaden the burden sharing debate accordingly and
    demonstrate their willingness to step up in this arena by expanding their commitment to development
    aid and democratic assistance programmes throughout the MENA region and beyond. Such a
    measure would expand the 2% debate on defence spending and make it more similar to the
    3% criterion put forward at the last Munich Security Conference that is more focused on the broader
    issues of the complex causes of security challenges today.
    97. The insistence on the new alliteration – cash, commitment, and capabilities – highlights the
    way to think about the needs for a unified Allied commitment to fulfilling the political goals they have
    set for themselves to tackle the new security environment and thereby continue to guarantee the
    peace and security of NATO populations and territory.
    170 DSCTC 18 E rev 1 fin
    15
    BIBLIOGRAPHY
    Adamowski, Jaroslaw, “Fear factor: As Russia looms large, Baltics up military capacity”, Defense
    News, 28 August 2017b, https://www.defensenews.com/smr/european-balance-of-
    power/2017/08/28/fear-factor-as-russia-looms-large-baltics-up-military-capacity/
    Adamowski, Jaroslaw, “Poland to buy 5th-gen fighter jets around 2025”, Defense News,
    2 June 2017a, https://www.defensenews.com/air/2017/06/02/poland-to-buy-5th-gen-fighter-
    jets-around-2025/
    Anderson, Guy, “Polish defence spending to stay at 2% of GDP in 2018”, Jane’s Defence Weekly,
    8 June 2017, http://www.janes.com/article/71253/polish-defence-spending-to-stay-at-2-of-
    gdp-in-2018
    Barnes, James, E., “Despite U.S. Push, Most NATO Allies Fail to Fulfill Military-Spending Goals”,
    The Wall Street Journal, 9 February 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/despite-u-s-push-
    most-nato-allies-fail-to-fulfill-military-spending-goals-1518200382
    Becker, Jordan, “Transatlantic Burden-sharing: Origins and Strategic Implications”, Defence Studies
    Department, King’s College London, 15 November 2017.
    Béraud-Sudreau, Lucie; Giegerich, Bastian, “Counting to two: analysing the NATO defence-
    spending target”, IISS Defence and Military Analysis Programme, International Institute for
    Strategic Studies, 14 February 2017,
    https://www.iiss.org/en/militarybalanceblog/blogsections/2017-edcc/february-7849/counting-
    to-two-67c0
    - “NATO Defence Spending and European Threat Perceptions”, Survival: Global Politics and
    Strategy, vol. 60, no.4, August-September 2018.
    Brattberg, Erik, “Trump’s European Misstep”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,
    12 February 208, http://carnegieendowment.org/2018/02/12/trump-s-european-misstep-pub-
    75518
    Braw, Elisabeth, “Tanking up in Greece”, Foreign Affairs, August 2017,
    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/greece/2017-08-07/tanking-greece
    Buck, Tobias, “German Military: Combat Ready?”, The Financial Times, 15 February 2018,
    https://www.ft.com/content/36e2cd40-0fdf-11e8-940e-08320fc2a277
    Canadian Department of National Defence and The Canadian Armed Forces, 2008-2019
    Departmental Plan, p.39-40,
    http://www.forces.gc.ca/assets/FORCES_Internet/docs/en/about-reports-pubs/dnd_2018-
    19_departmental-plan.pdf
    Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI), “Use It Or Lose It: SSE and DND’s Chronic Underspending
    Problem”, May 2018,
    https://www.cgai.ca/use_it_or_lose_it_sse_and_dnd_s_chronic_underspending_problem
    Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI), “Following the Funding in Strong, Secure, Engaged”,
    January 2018,
    https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/cdfai/pages/3244/attachments/original/1517275897/F
    ollowing_the_Funding_in_Strong_Secure_Engaged.pdf?1517275897
    Chadwich, Vince, “EU 2018 budget: Development aid cut as humanitarian spending rises”, Devex,
    21 November 2017, https://www.devex.com/news/eu-2018-budget-development-aid-cut-as-
    humanitarian-spending-rises-91588
    Chassany, Anne-Sylvaine, “France to increase military spending”, Financial Times, 8 February 2018,
    https://www.ft.com/content/fede4e5a-0cb0-11e8-8eb7-42f857ea9f09
    Czulda, Robert; Madej, Marek, “Newcomers No More? Contemporary NATO and the Future of the
    Enlargement from the Perspective of ‘Post-Cold War’ Members”, International Relations
    Research Institute Warsaw, subsidised by NATO Public Diplomacy Division, 2015,
    https://www.stratcomcoe.org/newcomers-no-more-contemporary-nato-and-future-
    enlargement-perspective-post-cold-war-members
    De France, Olivier; Besch, Sophia, “Nato needs a European 2%”, EU Observer, 27 May 2017,
    https://euobserver.com/opinion/138038
    170 DSCTC 18 E rev 1 fin
    16
    Deni, John, “Burden-sharing and NATO’s 2 Percent Goal”, Carnegie Europe, 14 April 2015,
    http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=59767
    Dobbs, Joseph, “A New Approach to Transatlantic Burden-Sharing”, European Leadership Network,
    14 September 2017, https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/policy-brief/a-new-
    approach-to-transatlantic-burden-sharing/
    Driver, Darrell, “Burden sharing and the future of NATO: wandering between two worlds”, Defense
    and Security Analysis, vol. 32, 13 January 2016.
    European Commission, “A European Defence Fund: €5.5 billion per year to boost Europe's defence
    capabilities”, 7 June 2017b, http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-1508_en.htm
    European Commission, “Commission debates future of European defence”, 24 May 2017a,
    http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-1427_en.htm
    Eyal, Jonathan, “The Real Problems with NATO”, Foreign Affairs, 2 March 2017,
    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/europe/2017-03-02/real-problems-nato
    Fiott, Daniel, “The EU, NATO and the European defence market: do institutional responses to
    defence globalisation matter?”, European Security, vol. 26, no. 3, 17 August 2017 (a).
    Fiott, Daniel, “The CARD on the EU defence table”, European Union Institute for Security Studies,
    April 2017 (b).
    Hope, Kerin, “Putin issues ‘crosshairs’ warning to Romania and Poland”, Financial Times,
    27 May 2017, https://www.ft.com/content/d05a8d18-244b-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d
    International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), “The Military Balance”, 2018.
    International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), “IISS Analyzing the 2% NATO Defence Spending
    Target”, 14 February 2017
    International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), “The Military Balance”, 2015.
    Jane’s Defence Weekly, “Optimistic Outlook” in “The Numbers Game”, vol. 55, no. 9, 28 February
    2018a.
    Jane’s Defence Weekly, “Third Time Lucky” in “The Numbers Game”, vol. 55, no. 9, 28 February
    2018b.
    Lindsay, James, M., “Institutional and Personal Factors Influencing Foreign Policy in Europe and the
    United States”, in Domestic Determinants of Foreign Policy in the European Union and the
    United States, ed. David Hamilton and Teija Tiilikainen, Washington, DC: Center for
    Transatlantic Relations and Finnish Institute of International Affairs, 2018.
    Lunn, Simon; Williams, Nicholas, “NATO Defence Spending: The Irrationality of 2%”, ELN Issue
    Brief, European Leadership Network, June 2017,
    https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/170608-ELN-Issues-
    Brief-Defence-Spending.pdf
    MacAskill, Ewen, “Mattis threatens Nato with reduced US support over defence spending”, The
    Guardian, 15 February 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/15/nato-
    bedrock-of-us-defence-policy-says-general-james-mattis-defence-secretary-trump
    Major, Claudia; Moelling, Christian, “France Moves From EU Defense to European Defense”,
    Carnegie Europe, 7 December 2017, http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/74944
    Marrone, Alessandro; “Italy's Defence Policy: What to Expect from the 2018 Elections?”, Istituto
    Affari Internazionali, 20 January 2018, http://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/italys-defence-policy-
    what-expect-2018-elections
    Mattelaer, Alexander, “US Leadership and NATO. Revisiting the Principles of NATO Burden-
    Sharing”, Parameters, vol. 46, no.1, 2016.
    McBride, James; “How Does the U.S. Spend Its Foreign Aid?”, Council on Foreign Relations,
    11 April 2017, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/how-does-us-spend-its-foreign-aid
    McLeary, Paul, “With Demands for More NATO Spending, Romania Steps Up”, Foreign Policy,
    3 May 2017, http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/03/with-demands-for-more-nato-spending-
    romania-steps-up
    Ministère des Armées, Actualités : “Le président de la République promulgue la loi de programmation
    militaire 2019-2025”, 18 juillet 2018. https://www.defense.gouv.fr/english/actualites/articles/le-
    president-de-la-republique-promulgue-la-loi-de-programmation-militaire-2019-2025
    Moelling, Christian, “Germany’s Defense Budget Increase: Analytically Wrong but Politically Right”,
    German Marshall Fund of the United States, 28 January 2016,
    170 DSCTC 18 E rev 1 fin
    17
    http://www.gmfus.org/blog/2016/01/28/germany%E2%80%99s-defense-budget-increase-
    analytically-wrong-politically-right
    Moelling, Christian, “NATO’s Two Percent Illusion”, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), August
    2014, https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/greater-efficiency-within-nato/
    National Security Strategy (NSS), December 2017,
    https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf
    North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), “Sharing the burden of keeping Europe whole, free and
    at peace”, 5 May 2017(a).
    North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), “Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2010-2018)”,
    Communique, 10 July 2018.
    North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), “Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2010-2017)”,
    Communique, 29 June 2017(b).
    North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), “Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2009-2016)”,
    13 March 2017.
    North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), “Defence Expenditures of NATO Countries (2008-
    2015)”, Communique, 28 January 2016.
    North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), “Framework for NATO-Industry Engagement”, 2013.
    North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), “Financial and Economic Data Relating to NATO
    Defence”, 19 February 2009.
    North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), “NATO-Russia Compendium. Financial and Economic
    Data Relating to Defence”, 8 December 2005.
    NATO PA, 2017 DSCTC report, “NATO-EU Cooperation after Warsaw” [163 DSCTC 17 E rev.1 fin],
    presented by Mesterhazy, Attila, 7 October 2017, https://nato-pa.int/document/2017-eu-and-
    nato-cooperation-mesterhazy-report-163-dsctc-17-e-rev1-fin
    NATO PA, 2017 ESC report, “The State of Europe’s Defence Industrial Base” [166 ESC 17 E bis],
    presented by Bockel, Jean-Marie, 7 October 2017, https://www.nato-pa.int/document/2017-
    europe-industrial-defense-base-bockel-report-166-esc-17-e-bis
    NATO PA, 2016 DSC report, “NATO’s New Deterrence Posture: From Wales to Warsaw” [161 DSC
    16 E bis], presented by Day, Joseph, A., 20 November 2016, https://nato-
    pa.int/document/2016-161-dsc-16-e-bis-report-deterrence-day
    NATO PA, 2016 ESC report, “The Budgetary Implications of New Challenges to Transatlantic
    Security” [166 ESC 16e rev.1 fin], presented by Bockel, Jean-Marie, 16 November 2016,
    https://nato-pa.int/document/2016-166-esc-16-e-rev1-fin-report-budget-transatlantic-security-
    bockel
    NATO PA, 2015 DSCTC report, “Realizing the Goals of the Wales Summit: Strengthening the
    Transatlantic Link” [168 DSCTC 15e rev.1], presented by Mesterhazy, Attila, 10 October 2015,
    https://nato-pa.int/document/2015-168-dsctc-15-e-rev-1-fin-transatlantic-link-mesterhazy-
    report
    NATO PA, 2018 DSC draft report, “Reinforcing NATO’s Deterrence in the East” [063 DSC 18 E] by
    Joseph A. Day
    O’Dwyer, Gerard, “Special forces, allies to benefit from Denmark’s defense spending deal”, Defense
    News, 6 February 2018, https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2018/02/05/special-
    forces-allies-to-benefit-from-denmarks-defense-spending-deal/
    Reuters, “Development aid cannot be part of defense spending: NATO's Stoltenberg”, 31 March
    2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-spending/development-aid-cannot-be-part-of-
    defense-spending-natos-stoltenberg-idUSKBN172234
    Rohac, Dalibor, “Real victim of Trump’s NATO outburst: The US”, POLITICO, 3 July 2017.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-nato-outburst-united-states-real-victim/
    Roth, Alexander, “The size and location of Europe’s industry”, Bruegel, 22 June 2017,
    http://bruegel.org/2017/06/the-size-and-location-of-europes-defence-industry/
    Shanker, Thom, “Defense Secretary Warns NATO of ‘Dim’ Future”, The New York Times, 10 June
    2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/11/world/europe/11gates.html
    Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI); “Military expenditure by country, in
    constant (2015) US$ m”, 2017, https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/Milex-constant-2015-
    USD.pdf
    170 DSCTC 18 E rev 1 fin
    18
    Togawa Mercer, Shannon, ‘No, Europe Isn’t Ambushing NATO”, Foreign Policy, 3 January 2018,
    http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/03/no-europe-isnt-ambushing-nato/
    United States Department of Defense, “President Signs Fiscal 2019 Defense Authorization Act at
    Fort Drum Ceremony,” press release, August 13, 2018.
    https://dod.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1601016/president-signs-fiscal-2019-defense-
    authorization-act-at-fort-drum-ceremony/
    United States European Command (EUCOM); “U.S. Increases Commitment to Deterrence with EDI
    Request”, 14 February 2018, http://www.eucom.mil/media-library/article/36241/u-s-increases-
    commitment-to-deterrence-with-edi-request
    United States European Command (EUCOM); “U.S. Military Presence in Europe (1945-2016)”,
    26 May 2016, http://www.eucom.mil/doc/35220/u-s-forces-in-europe
    Viggo Jakobsen, Peter; Ringsmose, Jens, “Burden-sharing in NATO”, Norwegian Institute of
    International Affairs, 29 November 2017,
    https://brage.bibsys.no/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11250/2468677/NUPI_Policy_Brief_16_17_Ja
    kobsen_Ringsmose_v2.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y
    Wayne Merry, Edward, “Therapy's End: Thinking Beyond NATO”, Center for the National Interest,
    No. 74, 2003.
    Zyal, Benjamin; “NATO Burden-sharing: A New Research Agenda”, Journal of International
    Organizations Studies, vol. 7, no. 2, 2016.
    ______________________
    www.nato-pa.int
    DEFENCE AND SECURITY
    COMMITTEE (DSC)
    AFGHANISTAN: THE NEXUS
    OF LOCAL AND REGIONAL
    SECURITY
    Special Report
    by Wolfgang HELLMICH (Germany)
    Special Rapporteur
    171 DSC 18 E fin | Original: English | 17 November 2018
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    I. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................1
    II. TRUMP ADMINISTRATION / US POLICY.............................................................................1
    III. RSM UPDATE .......................................................................................................................2
    IV. THE ANDSF AND THE INSURGENCY .................................................................................3
    A. THE ANDSF .................................................................................................................3
    B. THE TALIBAN ..............................................................................................................5
    C. DAESH IN AFGHANISTAN – ISIL-K.............................................................................6
    D. OTHER INSURGENT GROUPS...................................................................................7
    V. STATUS OF THE CIVILIAN SECURITY ENVIRONMENT .....................................................7
    VI. GOVERNANCE .....................................................................................................................8
    A. ELECTIONS AND ELECTORAL REFORM...................................................................8
    B. EFFORTS TO STEM CORRUPTION ...........................................................................9
    VII. INCREASING FOCUS ON THE REGIONAL DIMENSION................................................... 11
    A. PAKISTAN.................................................................................................................. 11
    B. INDIA.......................................................................................................................... 14
    C. CHINA ........................................................................................................................ 15
    D. IRAN........................................................................................................................... 16
    VIII. INTERIM CONCLUSIONS FOR NATO MEMBER STATE PARLIAMENTARIANS .............. 17
    ANNEX : GLOBAL HEROIN TRAFFICKING FLOWS 2012-2016......................................... 18
    BIBLIOGRAPHY.................................................................................................................. 19
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    1
    INTRODUCTION
    1. Increased violence in Afghanistan, driven by a resurgent Taliban and other insurgent forces,
    is forcing international attention back to the country. Tactical and strategic gains by the Taliban
    coupled with persistent institutional corruption continue to drive the attrition of the Afghan National
    Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) and have altered the balance of forces on the ground. In the
    face of this worsening situation for the Afghan government and its forces, NATO Allies and their
    international partners are stepping up their efforts.
    2. Allies agreed at the Brussels meeting of NATO Heads of State and Government on
    25 May 2017 not only to continue NATO’s Resolute Support Mission (RSM) in Afghanistan, but to
    increase financial and personnel contributions as well. Allied efforts in Afghanistan over the next few
    years will be critical to turning around the increasingly tenuous security situation on the ground.
    3. In August 2017, the Trump administration announced the United States would let ‘conditions
    on the ground’ guide its efforts to assist the ANDSF as well as the United States’ parallel
    counterterrorism mission in the country. To help achieve its goals, the United States is effecting a
    mini-surge of its forces and resources dedicated to Afghanistan. The Trump administration has made
    it clear participation in Afghanistan is a part of its interpretation of burden sharing in the Alliance – it
    expects its Allies to contribute more to NATO efforts to achieve the broader mission in Afghanistan;
    a stable country that will never again become a wellspring for international terrorism.
    4. New rules of engagement are allowing international forces to work more closely with the
    ANDSF to help build a more effective fighting force in operations. In addition, international pressures
    seem to be bringing a much-needed government focus on rooting out corruption in the nation’s
    security institutions. Further, the Trump administration has eased restrictions on war fighters in the
    battlefield and, as a result, US-led airstrikes doubled in 2017.
    5. The United States is also increasing pressure on regional states to play a key role in future
    peace and security in Afghanistan. Attention is being paid to Pakistan’s insufficient efforts to deny
    the Afghan Taliban and other designated international terrorist groups the freedom to operate in
    regions bordering Afghanistan.
    6. This special report will provide a thorough overview of the evolution of the security situation in
    Afghanistan, from the state of the insurgency to the status of the ANDSF. A focus of this report,
    however, will be the complex regional variables at play in the fight for the future of Afghanistan. It
    will conclude with steps forward for the consideration of NATO member state parliamentarians.
    TRUMP ADMINISTRATION / US POLICY
    7. After months of consultations, US President Donald Trump announced a new ‘Afghanistan and
    South Asia policy’ in a speech to troops at Fort Myer in Arlington, Virginia on 21 August 2017.
    Departing from his predecessor’s policy, which included a gradual military drawback from
    Afghanistan, Mr Trump reaffirmed a continued US commitment to the NATO-led Train, Advise and
    Assist (TAA) and US counterterrorism missions. Among other things, the new US strategy provides
    for the deployment of several thousand additional troops, relaxed rules of engagement for US forces
    and increased pressure on neighbouring states to contribute to the stabilisation of Afghanistan.
    Moreover, discarding the Obama administration’s calendar-driven withdrawal or sunset clause, it
    specifies any future military withdrawal will be conditions-based (The White House, 2017). Beyond
    these broad strategic revisions, the president’s speech outlined few details. For instance, the metrics
    to assess the conditions mentioned in the revised sunset clause remained undefined.
    8. While the new strategy downgrades the importance of political engagement with Afghan
    governance issues, it clearly strengthens the US commitment to military efforts in Afghanistan. More
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    2
    specifically, it proceeds on the assumption the Taliban can be forced into negotiating a political
    settlement by subduing them on the battlefield (IISS, 2017). To achieve this goal, President Trump
    asked NATO Allies and partner countries involved in Afghanistan to follow the United States’ lead in
    increasing troops and funding, thereby also linking the mission in Afghanistan to the burden sharing
    debate1
    .
    9. The Trump administration’s broader regional policy is changing quite significantly as well. The
    administration is now putting significant pressure on regional actors critical to the broader security
    outcomes in the region as well as the specific battlefield conditions inside of Afghanistan. This
    broader regional approach is a key element to what will ultimately determine the contours of the
    Trump administration’s approach to Afghanistan; the challenges of regional variables in Afghanistan
    are highlighted in detail later in this report.
    RSM UPDATE
    10. At the 2016 Warsaw Summit, NATO Allies and partners agreed to extend the Resolute Support
    Mission beyond 2016, continue funding for the ANDSF until the end of 2020 and strengthen political
    and practical support for Afghan government institutions. These commitments were formally
    announced in the Warsaw Summit Declaration on Afghanistan and reaffirmed at the May 2017
    meeting of NATO leaders in Brussels.
    11. RSM’s objectives have remained the same: to prevent Afghanistan’s retreat into a sanctuary
    for terrorist forces capable of exporting violence and instability, as well as to provide the conditions
    and support for Afghanistan to sustain its own security, governance and development.
    12. To achieve these goals, RSM will continue to train, advise and assist the ANDSF, the Ministry
    of Defence (MoD) and the Ministry of Interior (MoI) with a new focus on more tactical-level TAA.
    Operating through regional and functional commands in Kabul, Mazar-i-Sharif, Herat, Kandahar and
    Laghman, NATO and partner forces work closely with a range of different ANDSF elements,
    including the police, air force, special operations and conventional ground forces (Resolute Support,
    2018a). In an effort to replicate the success of US Special Forces' training for the Afghan Special
    Security Forces, the new US Afghanistan and South Asia policy provides for more US and Allied
    advisors to spread down to the battalion and brigade levels of Afghan conventional forces.
    Previously, save a few exceptions, conventional forces were only advised at the corps level
    (US Lead IG, 2017).
    13. Moreover, RSM forces continue to make use of some combat enablers to address the
    ANDSF’s capability shortcomings. These include intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance
    (ISR) assets, artillery systems, aerial fires and logistical support such as medical evacuation
    (US DoD, 2017). Importantly, the modification of the US forces’ rules of engagement under the new
    Afghanistan and South Asia policy removed some caveats limiting US fires and air support in close
    proximity with hostile fighters (Wasserbly, 2017). As a result, US Forces operating in Operation
    Freedom’s Sentinel (OFS) and the Resolute Support Mission increased their air operations
    significantly. In 2017, for example, they conducted 1,248 sorties with at least one weapon released
    – compared to 615 in 2016.
    14. The Trump administration’s revised Afghanistan and South Asia policy has translated into a
    significant increase of RSM force levels. Since the announcement of the new strategy last August,
    the United States has deployed 3,000 additional troops to Afghanistan, of which 2,400 are assigned
    to NATO’s RSM (SIGAR, July 2018). Another 1,000 members of the newly created US Security
    Force Assistance Brigades (SFAB) are planned to be deployed starting from February 2018.
    1 This year’s DSCTC report [170 DSCTC 18 E rev. 1 fin] investigates the burden sharing debate in the
    Alliance today as its central theme.
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    3
    Specifically trained for combat advising, the SFAB will train, advise and assist the conventional
    ANDSF at the battalion level (SIGAR, January 2018; Wellman, 2018).
    15. President Trump’s call on NATO Allies and partners to follow suit has had its effect as well.
    Following the most recent meeting of NATO Defence Ministers in November 2017, NATO
    Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced the size of NATO’s mission in Afghanistan would
    increase from about 13,000 to approximately 16,000 personnel. Apart from the United States,
    another 27 RSM-troop-contributing nations also pledged to raise troop numbers (NATO, 2017). The
    German Defence Minister, for example, announced plans to increase the size of the German forces
    in Afghanistan from 980 to 1,300 personnel (Sprenger, 2018). NATO’s newest member,
    Montenegro, has also pledged to increase troops by about 50% (Tomovic, 2018). To date, all
    contributing nations have pledged to increase either materiel and/or personnel support efforts to
    RSM.
    16. Taking the already deployed reinforcements into account, RSM currently consists of
    16,229 troops from 39 contributing nations (26 NATO Allies and 13 operation partners). With 8,475
    troops the United States remains by far the largest force contributor. In addition to the NATO-led
    RSM, US troops are conducting counterterrorism and air operations as part of USFOR-A’s Operation
    Freedom’s Sentinel, amounting to a current total of approximately 14,000 US military personnel in
    Afghanistan (US DoD, 2017). Despite welcoming the recent troop reinforcements, US and NATO
    officials stated they continue to fall below international commitments and warned contingent
    shortcomings might endanger both the successful completion of the mission and effective force
    protection2
    .
    THE ANDSF AND THE INSURGENCY
    A. THE ANDSF
    17. With the start of NATO’s RSM in 2015, the Afghan security forces have taken sole
    responsibility for security throughout Afghanistan. As the ANDSF are now about to enter their
    fourth fighting season since they took the lead against the Taliban-led insurgency, NATO officials
    are optimistic about their development. In November 2017, RSM Commander
    General John W. Nicholson stated the momentum has shifted in the ANSDF’s favour – a clear
    difference the “stalemate” between government and insurgent forces he spoke of just seven months
    before (Nicholson, 2017a, 2017b). Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Curtis Scaparrotti
    echoed General Nicholson’s perception during a more recent visit to Kabul in February 2018 and
    said he is certain “the Taliban cannot win on the battlefield” (Resolute Support, 2018b).
    18. In early 2017, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani began implementing his four-year strategy to
    reform the ANDSF, now commonly referred to as the ‘ANDSF Road Map’. The plan aims to:
    1) strengthen fighting capabilities, particularly in the special operations and air forces; 2) improve
    leadership capacity; 3) increase the unity of effort and command between MoD and MoI; and
    4) reduce corruption across all Afghan security forces. The goal of these efforts is to bring 80% of the
    population under government control, forcing the Taliban into peace talks by 2020. The following
    assesses progress on President Ghani’s ANDSF Road Map.
    2 It should be noted, however, that with the completion of the SFAB’s deployment, the size of US forces
    is expected to surpass 15,000 this year.
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    4
    ANDSF Road Map Progress
    19. Implementation of President Ghani’s ANDSF Road Map has been slower than some
    expectations, but it has been producing concrete results since 2017. Following the abovementioned
    scheme outlined by the government in Kabul, the following significant steps have been taken. First,
    to increase the size and capabilities of the Afghan special operations and air forces: the Afghan
    National Army Special Operations Command (ANASOC) expanded its training facilities, graduating
    four instead of two Afghan Special Security Forces (ASSF) companies each year; while the Afghan
    Air Force (AAF) received the first eight of 159 UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters, thus beginning the
    overhaul of the AAF’s current fleet of 47 ageing Mi-17s (Hecker, 2018). Second, regarding leadership
    development, the MoI replaced 13 of its senior leaders, including even the Minister. In the MoD, five
    of the six Afghan National Army (ANA) corps commanders were removed and replaced with younger
    commanders, three of whom have special operations training and experience. Moreover, a
    standardised and comprehensive evaluation process has been imposed on all ANA commanders.
    Third, the Afghan Border Police (ABP) was renamed the Afghan Border Force (ABF) and transferred
    from the MoI to the MoD. The Afghan National Civil Order Police (ANCOP) is due to follow suit later
    in 2018, bringing all offensive security forces under MoD control (US DoD, 2017). The transfer of
    ABP and ANCOP to MoD’s administration is expected to further support the MoI's efforts to engender
    efficient law enforcement and root out corruption (US DoD, 2018).
    20. President Ghani’s Road Map also outlines a plan to shift the Afghan National Police’s (ANP)
    focus from counterinsurgency operations to traditional community policing. The Afghan National
    Police consists of four main branches and three sub branches and is under the authority of the
    Interior Ministry3
    . Among the main branches, the Afghan Uniform Police (AUP) constitutes the largest
    policing force with 99,068 authorised personnel and has a diverse range of tasks from traffic policing,
    to fire fighting and intelligence gathering, which make it the backbone of the ANP. The ANP’s efforts
    to become an effective civilian-policing force, however, are hamstrung by its active participation in
    counterinsurgency (COIN) operations alongside the ANA. Because ANP forces are not “sufficiently
    trained or equipped” for COIN operations, “the near-constant prospect of combating” insurgent forces
    fuels the high-levels of attrition in the ranks of its personnel (US DoD, 2018). Thus, although it is too
    early to measure its effectiveness, President Ghani’s goal of redefining the ANP’s role and
    responsibilities to transform it into a skilled and capable police force remains vital.
    21. Corruption, specifically public extortion, is also cited as another source of inefficacy greatly
    undermining ANP operations. Unjustified fines and taxes imposed upon the public, most commonly
    at checkpoints, by Afghan police officers are some examples of daily extortion. More importantly,
    ANP forces are also accused of accepting bribes from “criminals and insurgents in return for turning
    a blind eye” to their activities (UNDP, 2007). Accordingly, widespread institutional corruption within
    the ranks of the ANP hinders its forces from providing fair and sufficient crime fighting and civilian
    policing. Thus, reducing corruption across all of the Afghan security forces stands as one of the
    major initiatives emphasised by President Ghani’s reform plan.
    22. The ANDSF continue to operate below their authorised levels of 195,000 ANA and
    157,000 ANP personnel (352,000 total). Although the ANDSF’s total size has been more or less
    stable over the past year, as expressed above, both the ANA and the ANP suffer from high levels of
    attrition. Desertion accounts for about 70% of all personnel losses, with poor leadership being the
    most cited underlying driver (US DoD, 2017). Beyond numbers, the high turnover rate of 25-30% per
    year also prevents the ANDSF from developing a more experienced force. Specifically, recurrent
    lengthy deployments, the expectation of participating in near constant combat operations, as well as
    challenging living conditions contribute to the issues of reenlistment in the ranks of the ANP and
    ANA (US DoD, 2018). Upon RSM recommendation, the ANA has established a bonus scheme for
    3 The four main branches of the ANP are the Afghan Uniform Police, the Afghan Personnel and Pay
    System, the Afghan Border Police and the Afghan Anti-Crime Police; the three sub branches are the
    Afghan Local Police, the Afghan Public Protection Force and the Counter Narcotics Police of
    Afghanistan.
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    5
    personnel who serve the full duration of their enlistment (US Lead IG, 2017). It is, however, too early
    to assess the effectiveness of these efforts. In addition to the multilaterally funded ANDSF, the
    30,000-strong Afghan Local Police (ALP) is supported by the United States and overseen by the MoI
    (US DoD, 2017).
    23. The Afghan government and USFOR-A are currently reviewing plans to establish a new force
    under the MoD, called the Afghan National Army Territorial Force (ANATF). This force, which will
    consist of 7,500 ANA officers and 28,500 locally recruited personnel, is meant to prevent insurgents
    from regaining ground in government-controlled areas. Pilot programmes in selected provinces are
    planned to start in 2018, with a possible second round in 2019 (US DoD, 2018). If the ANATF model
    proves to be successful, it will allow the ANA to free up resources for offensive operations in the
    short term and to transition into a smaller and more affordable force in the long term (US DoD, 2017).
    Observers have raised concerns the proposed force will merely serve to train and equip private
    militias that will be most interested in advancing their own agendas. While the ANATF would bring
    militia forces under MoD control, this concern is not unjustified. Previous projects involving locally
    recruited forces, most notably the ALP, have had a mixed track record, providing security in some
    areas and committing human rights abuses against the local population in others (US Lead IG,
    2018).
    24. ANDSF casualty rates remained similar to the previous reporting year with fire and improvised
    explosive device (IED) attacks and, to a lesser extent, mine strikes as the main causes (US DoD,
    2017). In addition, insider attacks within the ANDSF (‘green on green attacks’) and on RSM forces
    (‘green on blue attacks’), though declining, continued to be a concern as they adversely affect force
    morale and foster mistrust between Afghan and international forces. To address the danger of insider
    attacks, the MoD adopted a new policy in September 2017, which provides for improved force
    protection procedures for ANDSF and RSM personnel, such as enhanced screening mechanisms.
    A similar policy is planned for the MoI. To support the MoD and MoI in this endeavour, RSM has
    created an Insider Threat Advisor (ITA) position (SIGAR, January 2018).
    B. THE TALIBAN
    25. As the Taliban failed to achieve their operational goal of capturing a provincial capital in 2017,
    they started to shift their focus to districts over the course of the past year. The group was able to
    take temporary control of some district centres through infiltration techniques rather than frontal
    assaults. However, the ANDSF, often with international forces’ air support, proved to be effective in
    recapturing lost territory relatively quickly (IHS Jane’s, 2017; US DoD, 2017). Although the Taliban
    have been pushed out of most urban centres, they were able to increase territorial control in rural
    areas slightly, where the government lacks effective representation. According to the latest RSM
    estimates based on data from October 2017, the Taliban hold about 14% of the country’s
    407 districts, while the government is in control of approximately 56% of them (Burns and Baldor,
    2018). The remaining 30% are contested. In terms of population control, RSM assessed insurgents
    control about 10% and the government approximately 60% of the population, with the remainder
    being contested (US DoD, 2017).
    26. The failure to capture urban centres even at the district level has led the Taliban to shift to
    increasingly guerrilla-style warfare against ANDSF bases, checkpoints and convoys across the
    country, as well as to high-profile attacks against civilians in Kabul and other major cities. From
    17-19 October 2017, for instance, the Taliban launched a series of attacks in the provinces of Paktia,
    Ghazni and Kandahar, killing over 100 people, mostly police and military personnel (ICG, 2017b).
    These incidents demonstrate the Taliban’s increasing focus on attacking ANDSF facilities, allowing
    the group to steal military equipment and weakening morale within the Afghan forces (UN, 2017). In
    January 2018, the Taliban claimed responsibility for two high-profile attacks in Kabul. On 21 January,
    a raid on the Intercontinental Hotel killed 22 people, most of whom were foreigners. A week later, a
    bomb hidden in an ambulance detonated in one of the capital’s most protected areas, close to
    government buildings and embassies, killing over 100 people (ICG, January 2018). Most recently,
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    6
    on 10 September, the Taliban carried out four attacks in northern Afghanistan killing at least
    57 Afghan police officers (Rahim and Abed, 2018). The four attacks were the latest in a series of
    targeted attacks by the Taliban against Afghan security forces.
    27. The pace of violence against security officials picked up after a three-day ceasefire was
    observed among the Taliban, the Afghan government, and international forces in the region during
    the Eid al-Fitr (ICG, July 2018). Although the violence dropped significantly during the temporary
    ceasefire, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan Province (ISIL-K) was the only
    exception and carried out an attack that killed at least 26 people. However, the adherence showed
    to the temporary truce by both Taliban and Afghan forces signified a “strong domestic constituency
    for peace” as President Ghani offered “unconditional talks” with Taliban (ICG, July 2018). Moreover,
    US officials and Taliban are reportedly preparing to hold potential peace talks, with the exchange of
    prisoners being a key starting point (Ahmad, 2018). The reports of potential peace talks were
    strengthened after US diplomats and Taliban representatives met in Doha in July where they laid
    the groundwork for future negotiations (Popaizai and Wilkinson, 2018).
    28. Integration between the Taliban and the Haqqani network has further progressed, causing
    some observers to call the distinction between the two groups obsolete (US DoD, 2017). Infighting
    between the Taliban’s leader, Haibatullah Akhundzada, and the head of the Haqqani network,
    Sirajuddin Haqqani, has reportedly been settled with the help of Pakistani mediation. Nevertheless,
    the rift allowed Haqqani to consolidate his influence within the Quetta Shura, the Taliban’s leadership
    council (IHS Jane’s, 2017). Observers have noted these developments with concern, as the Haqqani
    network has historically been less committed to limiting civilian casualties (US DoD, 2017).
    Moreover, on 4 September 2018, the Taliban officially confirmed the death of Jalaluddin Haqqani,
    the founder of the Haqqani network. Although Jalaluddin Haqqani’s death is not expected to affect
    the operations of the Haqqani network, it marks a significant symbolic loss for the militant group.
    C. DAESH IN AFGHANISTAN – ISIL-K
    29. The territorial hold of ISIL-K continues to decline due to US counterterrorism operations,
    ANDSF operations and fighting with the Taliban (US DoD, 2017). Particularly, the group’s stronghold
    in the south of the Nangarhar province has suffered from an intense US airstrike campaign. By the
    end of 2017, ISIL-K’s territorial control had diminished to three districts in the province – down from
    nine in late 2015. Elements of the group, however, appear to have relocated to other parts of the
    country, most notably to Kunar and Jowzjan provinces (US Lead IG, 2018; Nicholson, 2017b).
    30. Despite territorial losses, the group proved to be resilient in its ability to conduct high-profile
    attacks. In an effort to stir sectarian conflict, ISIL-K has focused on attacking Afghanistan’s Shi’a
    community. On 28 December 2017, the group claimed responsibility for killing at least 41 and
    wounding 84 people in a suicide attack at a Shi’a cultural centre in Kabul (SIGAR, January 2018).
    ISIL-K was also partly responsible for the spike of attacks against civilian and military targets in Kabul
    in January 2018. It claimed the attack on Save the Children’s Kabul office on 24 January, which killed
    at least three people, as well as the raid on a military academy on 29 January, which killed 11 ANDSF
    personnel (ICG, January 2018). Most recently, on 6 September 2018, ISIL-K conducted twin bomb
    attacks in Kabul’s predominantly Shia Qala-e-Nazer neighbourhood, killing 20 people.
    31. USFOR-A and ANDSF operations as well as attrition are taking their toll on ISIL-K’s base of
    available fighters. The group is trying to compensate for its heavy personnel losses by recruiting
    disaffected members from other insurgent groups in the region, most notably former Taliban and
    Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) members (US DoD, 2017). So far, however, increased pressure on
    ISIL-affiliated fighters in Syria and Iraq has not swelled the ranks of the organisation’s Afghan branch
    (Nicholson, 2017b). According to RSM statements in December 2017, the total number of ISIL-K
    members throughout Afghanistan amounts to about 1,000 people (Bunch, 2017).
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    7
    32. ISIL-K continues to have difficulties gaining local support and funding. The group’s ideology
    does not resonate with the larger civilian population and competition over illegal revenue sources
    continues to bring the group into conflict with the Taliban and other insurgent groups
    (US DoD, 2017). The competition over members and resources between the Taliban and ISIL-K is
    also fuelled by recent reports of possible peace talks between the United States and the Taliban.
    While ideologically the Taliban’s local agenda continues to clash with ISIL-K’s goal of establishing a
    global caliphate, on the battlefield the Taliban prove to be stronger, as more than 150 ISIL-K fighters
    were recently forced to surrender to Afghan security officials after being defeated by the Taliban in
    Jowzjan in August 2018 (Sahak, 2018). Thus, ISIL-K finds it hard to emerge as a major force in the
    face of the Taliban’s enduring regional presence.
    D. OTHER INSURGENT GROUPS
    33. Limiting the threat emanating from al-Qaeda remains a priority for US counterterrorism efforts
    in Afghanistan. The group maintains a limited but resilient presence in eastern, north-eastern and,
    to a lesser extent, southeastern Afghanistan. Moreover, its regional affiliate, al-Qaeda in the Indian
    subcontinent, was able to settle in the southern and southeastern parts of the country as well as in
    Pakistan. Al-Qaeda’s current focus is ensuring its survival and sponsoring local armed groups rather
    than going on the offensive (Giustozzi, 2018; US DoD, 2017). Other violent extremist organisations,
    most notably the Taliban, continue to provide al-Qaeda members with safe haven and support, which
    USFOR-A assesses as “probably the greatest obstacle to eliminating their presence in Afghanistan”
    (US Lead IG, 2018). However, there is no evidence to suggest coordination between the groups at
    the strategic level (US DoD, 2017).
    STATUS OF THE CIVILIAN SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
    34. The general security situation for Afghan citizens remains precarious. The United Nations
    Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) reported 10,453 conflict-related civilian casualties in
    2017, which included 3,438 deaths and 7,015 injured. For the first half of 2018, UNAMA documented
    1,692 deaths – the highest number of civilian casualties at mid-year for “any comparable time over
    the last ten years” (UNAMA, 15 July 2018). Although the overall numbers remain high, the year-on-
    year casualty count is decreasing for the first time since 2012 (UNAMA, February 2018). In addition
    to the persistently high number of casualties, the conflict has also caused the displacement of over
    445,000 civilians in 2017 (UNOCHA, 2018). This brings the number of internally displaced people in
    Afghanistan to 2 million, with another 2.6 million refugees living outside the country (Amnesty
    International, 2018).
    35. According to UNAMA’s latest report, the number of casualties attributed to combined IEDs has
    surpassed those caused by ground engagements in 2017. The mission voiced concern about the
    surge of sectarian-motivated attacks against places of worship and religious leaders, including
    ISIL-K’s growing focus on attacking the Afghan Shi’a community. In the summer of 2018 alone,
    ISIL-K claimed two attacks on the Shi’a community. In June, suicide bombers targeted a gathering
    of Afghan religious scholars, killing at least 12 and injuring 17 (Mashal and Sukhanyar, 2018).
    Meanwhile, in August two suicide bombers attacked Shi’a worshippers in the Paktia province,
    injuring 81 and killing 25 (Al Jazeera, 2018).
    36. Of all conflict-related casualties in 2017, UNAMA attributed nearly two thirds to
    anti-government elements and one fifth to pro-government forces, with the remainder being caused
    by unattributed cross-fire during ground combat, explosive remnants of war and shelling from
    Pakistan into Afghanistan.
    37. There has been substantial debate on the human costs associated with growing airstrikes by
    international and Afghan forces. In fact, UNAMA’s 2017 figures present the largest year-on-year
    casualty count caused by aerial fire since records began in 2009. Putting these numbers into
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    8
    perspective, however, the mission states the increase in civilian deaths and injured is relatively low
    compared to the significant rise of aerial operations over the course of the past year, resulting in an
    overall reduced harm ratio. Commenting on the discussion, Major General James B. Hecker,
    Commander of NATO’s Air Command in Afghanistan, said RSM’s training for Afghan pilots includes
    developing the necessary hard skills but also “a mindset that prevents civilian casualties to the
    greatest extent possible” (Hecker, 2018).
    GOVERNANCE
    A. ELECTIONS AND ELECTORAL REFORM
    38. In addition to the challenges directly associated with security and security sector reform, the
    Afghan state continues to face mounting political challenges. In this context, General Nicholson has
    stressed the importance of holding credible and timely elections to increase government legitimacy
    and social pressure on the Taliban (Nicholson, 2017b). The implementation of electoral reforms in
    preparation for the parliamentary and district council elections scheduled for October 2018 and the
    presidential elections due to take place in April 2019 is progressing relatively slowly. Both political
    and technical issues, including challenges associated with voter registration, security concerns and
    political disputes, have stalled progress on electoral preparations.
    39. At the heart of the new electoral law passed in November 2016 is the commitment to link voters
    to specific polling centres in order to reduce ballot-box stuffing, which was the most common form of
    fraud during the 2014 presidential elections (SIGAR, January 2018). Ambitious plans to introduce a
    biometric voter registration and verification system have been discarded, as the procurement
    process for biometric machines proved unfeasible in the short term. New plans require citizens to
    present their tazkera, the Afghan National Identification Card, directly at one of the polling centres to
    obtain a paper-based voter registration certificate (SIGAR, January 2018; Yawar Adili, 2017b).
    However, about 10 million Afghans adults do not possess identification documents, most notably
    women, refugee returnees and internally displaced persons (Darnolf, 2018; NRC, 2016). Observers
    have stated that the Afghan Central Civil Registration Authority (ACCRA), which is in charge of
    issuing civil documentation, lacks both the institutional capacity and the appropriate funding to issue
    tazkeras to all eligible voters prior to voter registration (Darnolf, 2018).
    40. Along with the passing of the new electoral law, the government appointed new members to
    the Independent Election Commission (IEC) and the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) in
    November 2016. Lately, the IEC and the ECC, now the two main bodies in charge of administering
    and overseeing the elections, have come under criticism by political parties and civil society
    institutions. Specific allegations include the lack of progress, internal division and poor leadership
    (UN, 2017). On 15 November 2017, President Ghani removed the IEC’s chairman,
    Najibullah Ahmadzai, from office after five of the commission’s seven members had accused him of
    incompetence. The president’s decision came after a coalition of opposition groups and protest
    movements demanded the dismissal of all commissioners. With six of ten IEC Secretariat positions
    unfilled and electoral preparations increasingly turning into a battlefield between different political
    factions, observers have raised serious doubt about whether the IEC and the ECC have the capacity
    to manage the electoral process properly (Yawar Adili, 2017a).
    41. In August 2018 the ECC announced that 35 candidates, 12 of which are current members of
    Parliament, will be barred from running in the 20 October 2018 elections due to their connections to
    armed groups (RFE/RL, August 2018). Whilst the announcement has been praised by some foreign
    diplomats who claim it will help ensure fair and legitimate elections, domestically it was met with
    criticism and debates over whether the ECC is truly independent and whether the process of barring
    candidates was fair and just. This has increased political tensions in Afghanistan, adding to
    pre-existing security concerns as elections approach. Concerns remain that the dissatisfaction of
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    9
    those barred from elections and their supporters will spark violence, which could either further delay
    the elections or at least disrupt them.
    42. Ensuring voter security remains a challenge as well. In 2017-2018, the IEC reviewed the
    location of polling centres throughout the country to assess voter accessibility for the first time (UN,
    2017). Out of the approximately 7,300 polling centres, the IEC assessed 1,707 centres across
    32 districts as being subject to high security threats (Shaheed, 2018a). In support of safe and fair
    elections in Afghanistan, in July 2018 UNAMA decided to allocate an additional USD 57 million to
    the elections budget (UNAMA, 25 July 2018). The US Department of Defense (DoD) stated the
    United States and NATO Allies are not planning to support election security with significant force
    levels (US DoD, 2017). However, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has offered (limited) NATO
    assistance for the parliamentary elections in October 2018 amid fears of security issues hampering
    the election process (RFE/RL, April 2018).
    43. The slow pace of electoral preparations – parliamentary elections were initially scheduled for
    2015 – puts the legitimacy of Afghanistan’s legislative bodies at risk and causes internal turmoil;
    particularly because successful local and parliamentary elections are a pre-requisite for long-awaited
    constitutional amendments. For example, the implementation of the 2014 executive power sharing
    agreement between the president and the chief executive officer of the national unity government
    (NUG) will require constitutional amendment; only a loya jirga4
    , however, can enact constitutional
    amendments, and they in turn depend on successful district council elections for their constituency.
    At the time of writing, the challenge of maintaining local elections coupled with the ongoing power
    struggle between the president, the legislature, and critics of the national unity government like
    Mr Karzai have led to political paralysis.
    B. EFFORTS TO STEM CORRUPTION
    44. Among Afghanistan’s greatest challenges is deeply entrenched public-sector corruption, which
    threatens to undermine the efficiency and legitimacy of the Afghan government and its security
    institutions. Although the NUG made combatting corruption a priority when its members took office
    in 2014, there has been little progress since then. Afghanistan continues to rank near the bottom, as
    177th
    out of 180 countries, in Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index
    (Transparency International, 2018). Moreover, 83.7% of all respondents in the Asia Foundation’s
    latest survey of the Afghan people said corruption is a major problem in Afghanistan as a whole (The
    Asia Foundation, 2017). Putting these rankings into perspective, Integrity Watch Afghanistan’s (IWA)
    2016 National Corruption Survey states that USD 3 billion (almost a sixth of Afghanistan’s GDP that
    year) was paid in bribes in 2015, an almost 50% increase from 2014 (Integrity Watch Afghanistan,
    2016).
    45. At the 2016 Brussels Conference on Afghanistan, the NUG committed to draft a
    comprehensive anticorruption strategy encompassing all government branches. About a year later,
    on 28 September 2017, the ‘National Strategy for Combatting Corruption’ was officially approved by
    the High Council on Rule of Law and Anti-Corruption. The National Strategy, however, puts
    anticorruption activities under the authority of the Attorney General’s Office, while the previous draft
    anticorruption law provided for the establishment of an independent commission (SIGAR, January
    2018). In the absence of an agreement on oversight, progress on the anticorruption law has been
    stalled. Further, the National Strategy has also been criticised as falling short of international
    standards and best practices, missing aligned goals and benchmarks as well as not calling for the
    establishment of a permanent and fully independent anticorruption organisation (SIGAR, January
    2018).
    46. RSM is specifically involved in efforts to stem corruption in Afghanistan’s security sector. It
    has, for instance, established a Counter-Corruption Advisor Group (CCAG) to support the MoI and
    4 A Loya Jirga is a traditional grand tribal assembly of elders to which district councils send delegates,
    and which has a legislative function in the country.
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    10
    MoD in identifying and targeting corruption networks within their own ranks and to coordinate
    anti-corruption efforts among Afghan security institutions, RSM and international partners (US DoD,
    2017). Moreover, the Combined Security Transition Command-Afghanistan (CSTC-A) and the
    Afghan Ministry of Finance signed a Memorandum of Understanding in August 2017, allowing the
    CSTC-A to audit the execution of the United States’ on-budget assistance to Afghan security forces
    and institutions. The CSTC-A has also supported the Ministry of Finance in developing the new
    ‘Afghan Personnel and Pay System’. Currently under implementation, the new system registers
    every ANDSF member biometrically, thereby reducing the risk of paying unaccounted for (or ‘ghost’)
    soldiers (Nicholson, 2017b; SIGAR, January 2018). CSTC-A advisors also work with the
    Anti-Corruption Justice Center (ACJC) and its principal investigative arm, the Major Crimes Task
    Force (MCTF). Established by President Ghani in 2016, the ACJC brings together investigators,
    prosecutors and judges to cover high-level corruption cases, meaning those involving losses of more
    than AFN 5 million or allegations against senior public officials (Resolute Support, 2017;
    SIGAR, January 2018). However, while the ACJC represents some progress in the Afghan
    anticorruption efforts, there are worries that it “lack[s] the capacity, resources, or security [it] need[s]
    to perform [its] function” (SIGAR, July 2018).
    The Opium-Corruption Nexus
    47. One of the key feeders into Afghanistan’s corruption issues, opium trade, provides equally
    complex challenges to local and regional security. More than 75 per cent of the world’s opium comes
    from Afghanistan (see Annex A) and the value of the opium trade has been estimated to over half
    (53 per cent) of the nation’s licit GDP (UNODC, 2018a). During the course of the war in Afghanistan,
    the 21st
    century has seen opium cultivation and trade spike to unprecedented levels. Even during
    President Ghani’s rule – praised for being harsher on warlords than his predecessor Hamid Karzai’s
    administration – cultivation and production have increased. From 2016 to 2017 opium production
    increased by 87 per cent to reach 9,000 tons (UNODC, 2018a).
    48. The increase in opium production has both global and local implications: fuelling regional
    instability and insurgency sustaining terrorist groups through illicit funds, but also making
    communities dependent on the income from opium poppy cultivation. The result is rampant
    corruption at all levels. The large volume of poppy cultivation makes Afghanistan the key provider of
    opium to not only its immediate neighbours in South Asia but also Europe, via Central Asian and
    Middle Eastern routes, most of Africa and even the United States (Meyer, 2018). The Taliban’s links
    to narcotics go back to the 1990s, and more concretely following the wake of the 2001 US invasion
    when, having moved to Pakistan, the Taliban solidified its links to the Quetta alliance, a loose
    confederation of three tribal clans in control of most of the regional narcotics trade. Displaying their
    cross-organisational co-operation capabilities, the insurgent Taliban and the drug kingpins agreed
    to exchange funding provided by illicit trade for security provided by the Taliban and their affiliates.
    As a result, the Taliban has had between USD 100 and USD 350 million available as funding for its
    insurgency each year (Meyer, 2018).
    49. With the support of the international community, predominantly the United States, the Afghan
    government has taken various measures to combat the narcotics trade in Afghanistan. However,
    these have yielded limited results – despite significant opium production in Afghanistan, most drug
    seizures happen outside the country (notably in the Middle East and Eastern Europe). The Afghan
    Ministry of Counter Narcotics (MCN), established in 2005 and tasked with the "coordination,
    evaluation and implementation of the Counter Narcotics law and the National Drugs Control Strategy
    (NDCS)”, has received USD 27.7 million from the US Bureau of International Narcotics and Law
    Enforcement Affairs (INL) for capacity building purposes since 2008.
    50. A key role the Ministry has recently played is implementing the new penal law on counter
    narcotics, in effect since February 2018. Stricter than the previous law, the new penal law favours
    prison terms over fines and has criminalised public officials’ behaviour that may jeopardise official
    investigations. While the United States continues to train Afghan authorities on implementing of the
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    11
    law, results are encouraging as over five hundred cases were adjudicated using the new law
    between 1 April and 7 June 2018 (SIGAR, July 2018). Meanwhile, within the ANDSF, the Counter
    Narcotics Police of Afghanistan (CNPA) and specialised units within it – especially the Sensitive
    Investigation (SIU) and National Interdiction Units (NIU) – conduct key counter narcotics operations.
    As of July 2018, the CNPA has 2,596 authorised personnel located in all 34 provinces. As of 2016,
    NATO has played a role in training counter narcotics officers via its Partnership for Counter Narcotics
    Training with the UNODC to tackle drug trafficking in South and Central Asia.
    51. Complementing these operations is the INL’s Counter-Narcotics Community Engagement
    (CNCE) programme established in 2013. Targeting local communities and farmers, the programme
    funds initiatives “aimed at discouraging poppy cultivation, preventing drug use, and encouraging licit
    crops” (SIGAR, July 2018). Similarly, the Boost Alternative Development Intervention through Licit
    Livelihoods (BADILL) programme, implemented by the UNODC, endeavours to diversify licit
    livelihoods for small-scale local farmers and remove incentives for illicit poppy cultivation. Observers
    note, however, this initiative has had very limited long-term results in dissuading farmers from opium
    production (SIGAR, July 2018). As political tensions, the ongoing insurgency, rampant corruption,
    and illicit trade continue to reinforce one another in Afghanistan, the key in resolving these issues
    will lie in the cohesion of the national unity government and the success of its negotiations with the
    Taliban. The more tolerant stance of President Ghani towards the Taliban and his increasingly
    pro-peace settlement rhetoric spell out a commitment to political stabilisation that is a positive signal
    for creating the conditions for a lasting peace (Ghani, 2018).
    INCREASING FOCUS ON THE REGIONAL DIMENSION
    52. It is clear achieving peace and stability requires a political settlement between the national
    unity government and the Taliban. Less straightforward and thus often neglected when discussing
    Afghanistan’s prospect for peace is the regional dimension of this endeavour. The announcement of
    the gradual withdrawal of NATO troops in 2011, however, has caused Afghanistan’s neighbours to
    move from the margins to the centre of attention again.
    A. PAKISTAN
    53. The most crucial neighbour for achieving peace and stability in Afghanistan is Pakistan.
    Besides Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan is one of only three countries that
    formally recognised the Taliban regime as Afghanistan’s legitimate government between 1996 and
    2001. Although then Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf officially cut ties with the Taliban within
    days of the 9/11 attacks, less conspicuous support channels remain. To date, the Afghan Taliban
    and the affiliated Haqqani network continue to enjoy safe haven on the Pakistani side of the Durand
    Line, allowing these groups critical sanctuary to avoid ANDSF and coalition-supported military
    operations and giving them the space necessary to plan, resource and launch attacks
    (US DoD, 2017).
    54. There is considerable evidence Pakistan’s military and especially its Inter-Service Intelligence
    Directorate (ISI), actively support Taliban activities in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The targeting and
    subsequent assassination of Osama bin Laden in 2011 drew global attention to the Pakistani
    military’s complicity with various armed groups and the freedom of action these groups’ leaderships
    enjoy in the Pakistani area of operation. More recently, Ahktar Muhammad Mansour, then leader of
    the Taliban, was killed in a US drone strike in Pakistan in 2016. He was found without any weapons
    or guards (Gall, 2017). For such a high-profile terrorist group leader to operate so freely in the region
    suggests at the very least tacit, if not overt, support from the government in Pakistan. In addition, the
    track record of arrests or disappearances of Afghan Taliban leaders based in Pakistan who make
    overtures to the government in Kabul or their international partners without the direct consent of the
    Pakistani government only further highlights the degree to which political and military leaders in
    Islamabad maintain key influence over terrorist groups (ICG, 2017a).
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    12
    55. Pakistan’s willingness to cooperate and crackdown on Taliban sanctuaries is balanced with a
    parallel desire by both political and military leaders to maintain armed group proxies active in the
    region in order to curb India’s potential influence in Afghanistan.
    56. Since British India was divided into what is now known as the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and
    the Republic of India in 1947, the two countries have fought each other in four full-scale wars and
    43 smaller conflicts (Mitton, 2014). Central to the ongoing dispute is the Kashmir region, which both
    states claim belongs to their respective territory. Marked by this history of bitter rivalry, the Pakistani
    military sees Afghanistan as providing critical strategic depth vis-à-vis India. In the minds of Pakistani
    leaders, sustaining strong political influence in Afghanistan can prevent potential encirclement by
    their long-term rival and, in the instance another war breaks out, provide the government in
    Islamabad with a reliable ally on its rear flank (Dalrymple, 2013).
    57. The 2001 US-led invasion of Afghanistan sought to remove the Taliban from power due to their
    support and harbouring of al-Qaeda. The US intervention was a critical juncture for Pakistan’s role
    in the region – not only did it lose its agent in Kabul, it also started to decline in importance in relation
    to the international community’s efforts to bring peace and stability to the region. This was due to its
    lack of initiative in denying safe haven to the remnants of the defeated Afghan Taliban as they fled
    across the border from US forces. The issue of Taliban and other armed groups asylum in Pakistan’s
    Federally Administered Tribal Areas soon became a key dividing point for international forces on the
    ground, as well as for the political effort to foster a stable government in Kabul in order to develop a
    new Afghan state. US-NATO combined efforts knocked the Pashtun out of key positions in Kabul,
    ushering in a new era where the Tajik-influenced government led by Hamid Karzai5
    had close ties to
    India (Mitton, 2014). Hence, in Pakistan’s view, backing insurgents was its only realistic instrument
    to maintain influence in the region.
    58. When Ashraf Ghani took office as president of the NUG in 2014, he initially made considerable
    efforts to improve relations and security cooperation with Pakistan. There were several reciprocal
    visits to Kabul and Islamabad in late 2014 and early 2015, during which Afghan and Pakistani officials
    tried to find ways to bring the Taliban to the negotiation table. Initially, officials on both sides
    expressed beliefs that formal talks were near (Yusuf and Smith, 2015). President Ghani even agreed
    to send a small number of Afghan troops to be trained at the Military Academy in Abbottabad in early
    2015, after former President Karzai had repeatedly rebuffed Pakistani offers to assist in the training
    of the ANDSF. Shortly afterwards, in April of the same year, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and
    its Afghan counterpart, the National Directorate of Security (NDS), signed a Memorandum of
    Understanding aiming to enhance intelligence cooperation (Katzman and Thomas, 2017).
    59. Meaningful action against Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan, however, failed to materialise and
    recent high-profile attacks jarred rapprochement efforts, eventually causing Afghan-Pakistani
    relations to deteriorate again. In the past two years, President Ghani has repeatedly called on
    Islamabad to take decisive action against Afghan extremists launching attacks from Pakistan. At the
    first meeting of the "Kabul Process" in June 2017, for example, Mr Ghani even accused the Pakistani
    government of waging “an undeclared war of aggression” against Afghanistan (Dawn, 2017).
    Pakistan denies supporting the Taliban and other extremist groups, arguing it is being made the
    scapegoat for other countries’ failings in the protracted and gridlocked conflict. Privately, however,
    civilian government officials say it is the military and particularly the ISI that are standing in the way
    of concrete measures aiming to clamp down on insurgent groups (Abi-Habib, 2018).
    60. These more recent events unfold against the background of a long-standing border dispute
    between the two countries. Afghanistan refuses to recognise the Durand Line as its international
    border with Pakistan, arguing it divides Pashtun territory. The border was drawn under British
    colonial rule in 1893 and has regained attention in 1947, when Pakistan declared its independence
    and refused Afghanistan’s demands to grant Pashtun tribes living on the Pakistani side of the border
    5 Hamid Karzai served as interim leader of Afghanistan from 2001-2004 and officially as President from
    2004-2014.
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    13
    the right to self-determination (Katzman and Thomas, 2017; Rahi, 2014). Recently, Pakistan has
    started to build a fence along the Durand Line, with plans to cover 2,400 km by the end of 2018
    (SIGAR, January 2018). While Islamabad argues the fence is necessary to regulate cross-border
    movements and prevent militant incursions, Kabul has voiced strong opposition to the unilateral
    undertaking and insists on renegotiating the border (Dilawar and Haider, 2017). Despite heightened
    tensions in the bilateral relationship, military-to-military border cooperation at the tactical level
    remains largely intact (US DoD, 2017).
    61. Many observers were apprehensive about the election of Imran Khan as Pakistan’s new
    Prime Minister in July 2018 due to worries about his policy on Afghanistan. Mr Khan had previously
    stated the Taliban insurgency is “justified” (Boone, 2012), which raised concerns about Pakistan
    being a spoiler in the Afghan peace talks (Schmitt, 2018). Prime Minister Khan, however, has thus
    far been supportive of peace negotiations with the Taliban, having said: “[i]f there is peace in
    Afghanistan, there will be peace in Pakistan” (Coll, 2018). Given his Pashtun background, Mr Khan
    could in fact increase ties between Pakistan and Afghanistan should this become a foreign policy
    priority for his government (McKirdy, 2018).
    The Trump Administration Changes the Course of US-Pakistan Policy
    62. While US Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama prioritised ensuring Pakistan’s
    overall stability to keep the country’s numerous militant groups in check and its fast-growing stockpile
    of nuclear weapons out of the wrong hands, the Trump administration has decided to take a hard
    line with Pakistan. While presenting the new US South Asia strategy in August 2017,
    President Donald Trump stated his administration could no longer ignore the sanctuary provided to
    the Afghan Taliban in Pakistan. As a result, in January 2018, the US government decided to suspend
    all Coalition Support Fund and Military Financing aid for Pakistan – security assistance worth
    approximately USD 2 billion – until the Pakistani leadership substantiates its commitment to
    crackdown on Taliban sanctuaries (Bokhari et al., 2018; Nawaz, 2018). Ahead of his visit to
    Islamabad in September 2018, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced the United States
    would cancel USD 300 million of aid to Pakistan “due to a lack of decisive actions in support of the
    South Asia strategy” (Barker, 2018).
    63. Moreover, the Trump administration successfully lobbied the member states of the Financial
    Action Task Force (FATF) into putting Pakistan back on the ‘grey list’ of countries not doing enough
    to combat money laundering and terrorist financing. This grey listing is likely to discourage banks
    and other financial institutions from engaging with the Pakistani government, complicating the
    country’s efforts to meet its growing financial needs (Abi-Habib, 2018; Masood, 2018).
    64. The changing course of US-Pakistan policy under President Trump has sparked substantial
    debate in the US foreign policy community. Some security experts argue a hardline approach gives
    the United States increased leverage by limiting Pakistan’s capabilities. For example, the reduction
    in aid stalls military modernisation efforts and could be a long-term setback if no other country can
    fill the substantial gap left by the loss of US aid (BBC News, 2018).
    65. At the same time, however, some observers question whether the strategy of increasing
    pressure on Pakistan will achieve the desired results, arguing it might actually prove to be
    counterproductive. Pakistan was on the FATF’s grey list from 2012 to 2015 and US military aid to
    the country was already cut by about 60% from 2010 to 2017 – neither of these measures had any
    apparent impact on Pakistan’s behaviour (Felbab-Brown, 2018; Masood, 2018). While there have
    been few signs of such measures impacting Pakistan’s behaviour toward terrorist groups, the
    United States has benefited from its ability to use Pakistani roads and airspace to deliver supplies
    into Afghanistan and Pakistani military bases to launch drone strikes (Aleem, 2018). Some experts,
    including a former US ambassador to Pakistan, fear these benefits could end if aid is cut off in a
    highly public manner. Pakistan could obstruct or complicate US operations, as it did in 2011 when it
    shut down NATO supply routes into Afghanistan after the United States attacked a Pakistani guard
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    14
    post, or it could pursue closer ties with rivals such as China and Russia (BBC News, 2011; Olson,
    2018). Increasing pressure on Pakistan also risks reinforcing the military’s perception that it needs
    Afghan insurgents to compensate for insecurities vis-à-vis India, particularly because the
    Trump administration’s South Asia policy also calls for a growing Indian role in Afghanistan (Felbab-
    Brown, 2018).
    B. INDIA
    66. Much like its principal rival, India’s involvement in Afghanistan is informed by concerns over
    violent extremism and the potential influence of Pakistan. India strongly opposed the Taliban
    government, as it viewed Kabul’s harbouring of al-Qaeda as a major threat to its security. From
    New Delhi’s perspective, links between al-Qaeda and violent separatist groups in Pakistan directly
    connected extremism in Afghanistan to instability in the disputed Kashmir region and south east Asia
    more generally (Katzman and Thomas, 2017). Even after the Taliban’s ouster, some of these groups
    have continued to prove their potency with major terrorist attacks in India and against Indian targets
    in Afghanistan. Most notable in this regard are the 2008 and 2011 Mumbai attacks, but also the 2008
    and 2009 attacks against the Indian embassy and the 2010 attack against an Indian guesthouse in
    Kabul (Dalrymple, 2013). Eager to prevent any violent extremist groups from regaining power in
    Kabul, New Delhi supported the Northern Alliance against the Taliban in 2001 with both military
    advisors and equipment, and it has made considerable efforts to re-establish and solidify bilateral
    relations since then.
    67. India has become one of Afghanistan’s largest and most reliable regional partners in terms of
    trade and development assistance (US DoD, 2017). Since the Taliban’s ouster in 2001, New Delhi
    has funded major civil development and infrastructure projects such as the new parliament building
    in Kabul and the Afghanistan-India Friendship Dam in Herat Province, completed in December 2015
    and June 2016 respectively. India’s development assistance to Afghanistan amounts to projects
    worth USD 2 billion in total and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged an additional
    USD 1 billion for Afghanistan’s development in 2016 (Katzman and Thomas, 2017). Meanwhile, the
    overall volume of trade in goods amounted to USD 383 million in 2016 (SIGAR, January 2018). While
    India is becoming increasingly involved in Afghanistan’s reconstruction and economic development,
    the Indian government has been careful to stress the civilian character of these investments.
    68. Most recently, India has committed to invest USD 85 million in the development of the
    Chabahar seaport in south eastern Iran (Dawn, 2018). As Pakistan continues to block the land transit
    of goods from Afghanistan to India and vice versa, the project aims to facilitate trade between India,
    Iran and Afghanistan while bypassing Pakistan. Launched with a series of trilateral transit
    agreements in May 2016, the project has progressed relatively slowly as the first consignment of
    wheat was shipped from India to Afghanistan through Chabahar only in October 2017 (Panda, 2017).
    On 17 February 2018, Prime Minister Modi and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani finalised
    agreements on the management of Chabahar, giving operational control of the port to the Indian
    government for the following 18 months (Dawn, 2018). In addition to sea access, Afghanistan and
    India have also established a direct airfreight corridor, which was inaugurated with the first cargo
    flights between New Delhi and Kabul in June 2017 (MEA India, 2017a).
    India as Security Partner to Afghanistan
    69. The nature of Indian-Afghan relations changed and intensified again in 2011, when the
    two countries signed a “Strategic Partnership” giving India a formal role in Afghan security for the
    first time. Importantly, the partnership agreement provided for India to train and equip ANDSF
    personnel (MFA Afghanistan, 2011). Since then, about 130 members of the Afghan security forces
    have attended officer-training programmes at Indian military institutions every year (US DoD, 2017).
    Furthermore, India has begun to supply the ANDSF with combat equipment, thus departing from its
    previous policy of providing Afghanistan with support equipment only. Most notably, India has
    donated four Mil Mi-25 attack helicopters to the Afghan Air Force (AAF) to replace their grounded
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    15
    Mi-35s. As the donated helicopters have also experienced serviceability issues, however, the Indian
    government announced in 2018 that it would purchase four refurbished Mi-24 helicopters from
    Belarus for Afghanistan (Gady, 2018).
    70. Recent developments suggest India’s involvement in Afghan security is likely to increase even
    further. As a way of coordinating and reviewing the implementation of the strategic partnership at
    the ministerial level, the agreement established a “Partnership Council” with regular meetings
    headed by the Foreign Ministers of both countries. The council met for the second time in
    September 2017, where both sides agreed to strengthen security cooperation and extend India’s
    assistance to the ANDSF. Notably, the council also explicitly called for the end of state-sponsored
    sanctuaries for terrorist groups attacking Afghanistan (MEA India, 2017b).
    71. This does not mean, however, there are no limits to the role India is willing to play in
    Afghanistan. As part of the new US South Asia policy, President Trump called on New Delhi to
    contribute more to international efforts aiming to foster peace and stability in Afghanistan. In
    September 2017, a month after President Trump’s address, Indian Defence Minister
    Nirmala Sitharam met with her US counterpart James Mattis in New Delhi. During the meeting, Mrs
    Sitharam made it clear India is not going to send troops to Afghanistan but is prepared to increase
    development assistance and training for ANDSF personnel (Deutsche Welle, 2017). India’s restraint
    in this regard is likely to be first and foremost informed by New Delhi’s fears of potential retaliation
    attacks by Pakistan-backed insurgent groups in India or against Indian targets in Afghanistan.
    C. CHINA
    72. Beijing’s expanding regional investment projects, coupled with concerns that instability and
    violent extremism in Afghanistan might threaten China’s domestic security, drive the country’s
    involvement in Afghanistan. First, despite a relatively small, shared border (92 km), Afghanistan’s
    mountainous and sparsely populated Wakhan corridor connects to China’s Muslim-majority Xinjiang
    province, where Uygur separatist groups seek to establish an independent East Turkestan. China is
    concerned about the surge of violence in recent years and suspects some of these groups take
    advantage of instability in parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan to train and plan terrorist attacks in
    Xinjiang and other parts of China (Huasheng, 2016; Umarov, 2017).
    73. Second, Afghanistan’s wealth in minerals such as copper, iron and gold, estimated to be worth
    USD 1 trillion, has attracted major Chinese investments (Barnes, 2017). In 2008, for instance, the
    state-owned China Metallurgical Group signed contracts to develop Afghanistan’s Mes Aynak field,
    the country’s largest copper deposit. Like many other Chinese projects in Afghanistan, however,
    security-related incidents such as attacks at the site and kidnappings of Chinese specialists have
    stalled the field’s full development (Umarov, 2017).
    74. Third, and most importantly, Afghanistan’s geographic location in the heart of Central and
    South Asia means peace and stability in Afghanistan are crucial for the viability and effectiveness of
    China’s massive “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) initiative. Launched in 2013, OBOR is the
    centrepiece of Beijing’s current foreign policy. It aims to connect China to Central and
    Southeast Asia, Europe and Africa through a network of railways and highways (the land-based “Silk
    Road Economic Belt”) as well as maritime routes (the sea-based “Maritime Silk Road”). The increase
    in Chinese investment and engagement in Central Asia through OBOR suggests China could play a
    significant role in increasing the regional links between Afghanistan and their Central Asian
    neighbours.
    75. In 2016, Afghan Foreign Minister Salahuddin Rabbani and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi
    signed a Memorandum of Understanding on enhancing cooperation within the OBOR framework,
    giving Afghanistan a formal place in China’s ambitious infrastructure project (Kumar, 2017). Since
    then, a new rail route was opened, linking China to Afghanistan through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan
    (Wu, 2016). Beijing has also signalled Afghanistan could become part of the China-Pakistan
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    16
    Economic Corridor (CPEC), a series of infrastructure projects currently under construction which
    aims to connect China to the Indian Ocean via Pakistan (SIGAR, January 2018).
    76. These economic and strategic interests as well as the significant cutback of international forces
    and partners in Afghanistan after the departure of ISAF have driven Beijing from its traditional place
    at the sidelines of the Afghan war towards greater involvement in Afghan security issues. The 2012
    “Joint Declaration between the People’s Republic of China and the Islamic State of Afghanistan on
    Establishing Strategic and Cooperative Partnership” marked the beginning of strengthened security
    cooperation between the two countries. Two years later, as a way of accelerating the implementation
    of the agreement, Beijing appointed the first Chinese Special Envoy for Afghan Affairs. Moreover,
    since the NUG took office in 2014, Kabul and Beijing have signed four Memoranda of Understanding
    on defence and security cooperation and hosted an unprecedented number of reciprocal visits by
    high-level diplomatic, security and military officials (Umarov, 2017). In 2016, Afghan security forces
    received their first batch of Chinese military aid, reportedly containing military vehicles, logistical
    equipment, ammunition and weapons (Dominguez, 2016). Most recently, there have been reports of
    joint counterterrorism patrols made up of Afghan and Chinese troops operating in the Wakhan
    corridor along the countries’ shared border (Katzman and Thomas, 2017). While Chinese military
    assistance and Sino-Afghan security cooperation are still marginal compared to other international
    actors, they have certainly increased in recent years. In August 2018, reports emerged indicating
    the Chinese government is planning to open a military base in Afghanistan to host troops undertaking
    counterterrorism training in neighbouring Xinjiang (Farmer, 2018). However, these claims have thus
    far been denied (Reuters, August 2018).
    77. In addition to growing bilateral efforts, China has launched or participated in a number of
    regional initiatives aiming to promote the Afghan peace process. Most notably, China is part of the
    Quadrilateral Coordination Group, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization-Afghanistan Contact
    Group and the Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process. While all of these regional forums convene regularly,
    no significant progress towards a peace settlement has been achieved since negotiations with the
    Taliban broke down in 2015 (UN, 2017). China is nevertheless considered to be in a relatively good
    position to foster cooperation and mediate between Afghanistan and Pakistan, as it has friendly
    relations with both governments. With close ties to the Pakistani military and at least some informal
    links to the Quetta Shura, the Taliban’s leadership council, Kabul hopes Beijing will use its relations
    to bring the Taliban back to the negotiation table (Huasheng, 2016; Jackson and Abbas, 2018).
    D. IRAN
    78. Iran’s involvement in Afghanistan is mainly driven by its desire to contain US and ISIL-K
    influence in Afghanistan. Iran’s foremost concern is the increase in ISIL-K attacks against the Afghan
    Shi’a community. Second, Tehran seeks to limit US military presence in the close vicinity of its
    border, which the United States may be able to use as a staging ground to pressure or attack Iran
    (Katzman, 2018).
    79. These concerns have led the Shiite-ruled Tehran to expand its ties with the hard-line Sunni
    Taliban and to support their fighters with money, training and equipment. Thus, the very group Iran
    vehemently opposed in the 1990s and nearly went to war with in 1998 has now become a useful
    proxy force to advance Iranian interests in the region (Gall, 2017).
    80. Yet, Iranian-Afghan relations are more complex, as both sides recognise – at a meeting in
    Kabul with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Arghchi, Afghan Chief Executive Abdullah
    Abdullah said "joint cooperation between the two countries of Iran and Afghanistan on fighting
    terrorism is necessary and the rise of shared threats makes these kinds of cooperation more
    necessary” (ICG, 27 September 2018). Iran is Afghanistan’s second largest trading partner after
    Pakistan as well as the most significant exporter of goods to Afghanistan – the total trade between
    the two coming to USD 1.46 billion in 2016 (UN, 2016). Iran’s commitment to economic cooperation
    is most evident in the Chabahar Port project with India, under which Iran is due to hand over control
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    17
    of the port to India in exchange for trade routes from landlocked Afghanistan to be able to bypass
    Pakistan. Meanwhile, Afghanistan’s commitment to cooperation with Iran is evident in its request for
    exemption from Iran-related sanctions.
    81. Moreover, there is also evidence Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has been
    recruiting Afghan refugees to join pro-government militias in Syria since at least 2013. According to
    Human Rights Watch, potential recruits do not always join voluntarily but are often detained and
    given the choice between deportation to Afghanistan and fighting in Syria (HRW, 2016, 2017). While
    they do not pose an immediate risk to Afghan security, their eventual return from Syria might swell
    the ranks of Afghan insurgent groups with battle-hardened and trained fighters. During a visit to
    Tehran UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi recently stated Iran is in grave need of
    further support in order to be able to house, support and educate the large Afghan refugee population
    (of almost a million civilians) it is currently host to (Lomax, 2018).
    CONCLUSIONS FOR NATO MEMBER STATE PARLIAMENTARIANS
    82. It is clear NATO Allies view sustaining their mission in Afghanistan as being of vital importance.
    NATO Allies and their international partners have a clear goal with their mission in Afghanistan – to
    ensure Afghanistan will never again become an ungoverned space from which terrorist groups can
    operate and launch attacks. Achieving this goal has involved almost 17 years of significant
    investment in personnel and resources – some people have paid the ultimate price to help
    Afghanistan achieve the peace and stability that have eluded it for the last four decades at least.
    83. Military assistance to the ANDSF and financial and diplomatic assistance to the government
    in Kabul have changed the situation on the ground in Afghanistan in significant ways: the ANDSF
    are leading the fight against the insurgent forces seeking to undermine the government; access to
    health care, education and other economic opportunities has expanded greatly since the end of
    Taliban rule in 2001; a parliamentary democracy, though advancing slowly, is taking hold and
    working to guarantee rights for all Afghan citizens. Advances in rights for women and girls in the
    country have perhaps come the farthest of all.
    84. While none of these achievements should be discounted, much work remains to be done. This
    report underscores many areas where sustained attention, resources and political will need to be
    focused to effect the change necessary: from continued security sector reform investment to
    increased attention to anticorruption measures. The parliamentary elections scheduled for the fall of
    2018 will be a key focus for the government, its international backers and the insurgent fighters
    seeking to block the installation of a legitimate democracy in the country.
    85. This report gives extra attention to the regional dimension of the security challenges in
    Afghanistan due to its importance for achieving lasting peace. Pakistan’s ability to deny the use of
    its territory as safe haven by the myriad groups fighting in Afghanistan will be crucial. Clearly,
    international pressure is increasing on Pakistan to take new steps to rectify what all military and
    policy experts believe to be a key problem for the future of the war in Afghanistan. The complexity
    of the Pakistan-India dynamic should not be overlooked, however, when examining policies and
    actions to deal with the Afghanistan-Pakistan border dilemma.
    86. As the Trump administration stated correctly in its iteration of its new policy toward Afghanistan
    – the solution to Afghanistan will require investment from all the elements of US power, not just the
    military. An obvious conclusion from such a statement is that, ultimately, lasting peace in Afghanistan
    will be the result of an Afghan-owned and implemented political solution. While the continued
    strengthening of the ANDSF and the correction of key security sectors may continue apace and
    change the balance of forces on the battlefield, it is clear a political compromise with the Taliban
    must be achieved.
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    18
    ANNEX: GLOBAL HEROIN TRAFFICKING FLOWS 2012-2016
    Source: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), 2018.
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    19
    BIBLIOGRAPHY
    Abi-Habib, Maria, “U.S. May Seek to Put Pakistan on Terrorism-Finance List”, The New York Times,
    14 February 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/14/world/asia/pakistan-terror-list.html
    Ahmad, Jibran, “Afghan Taliban prepare for new peace talks with U.S.: sources”, Reuters,
    11 September 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-taliban/afghan-taliban-
    prepare-for-new-peace-talks-with-u-s-sources-idUSKCN1LR0JH
    Al Jazeera, “Afghanistan: Dozens killed in bomb and gun attack on Shia mosque”,
    "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/08/suicide-bombers-target-shia-mosque-eastern-
    afghanistan-180803104926634.html
    Aleem, Zeeshan, “Trump’s sudden new fight with Pakistan explained”, Vox, 8 January 2018,
    https://www.vox.com/world/2018/1/8/16850116/trump-pakistan-suspend-aid
    Amnesty International, “Amnesty International Report 2017/2018: the State of the World’s Human
    Rights”, 2018,
    https://www.amnesty.org/download/Documents/POL1067002018ENGLISH.PDF
    Barker, Memphis, “US military confirms $300m cut in aid to Pakistan”, The Guardian, 2 September
    2018, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/02/us-military-confirms-300m-cut-in-
    aid-to-pakistan
    Barnes, Alex, “Afghan peace process unlikely to make progress“, Jane's Intelligence Review,
    3 April 2017.
    BBC News, “Pakistan shuts down Nato supply routes into Afghanistan”, 27 November 2011,
    http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-15908345/pakistan-shuts-down-nato-supply-
    routes-into-afghanistan
    BBC News, “How will the US move to cut aid affect Pakistan?”, 5 January 2018,
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42579077
    Bokhari, Farhan; Manson, Katrina; Stacey, Kiran, “Pakistan halts intelligence-sharing with US after
    aid suspension”, Financial Times, 12 January 2018, https://www.ft.com/content/59969778-
    f6b1-11e7-88f7-5465a6ce1a00
    Boone, Jon, “Imran Khan says Taliban's 'holy war' in Afghanistan is justified by Islamic law”, The
    Guardian, 14 October 2012, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/oct/14/imran-khan-
    taliban-afghanistan-islam
    Bunch, Lance, “Department of Defense Press Briefing by General Bunch via teleconference from
    Kabul, Afghanistan”, US Department of Defense, 12 December 2017.
    Burns, Robert; Baldor, Lolita C.; “Pentagon: Gag order on Afghan data was a mistake”,
    The Washington Post, 30 January 2018.
    Coll, Steve, “Can Imran Khan Really Reform Pakistan?”, The New Yorker, 27 July 2018,
    https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/can-imran-khan-really-reform-pakistan
    Dalrymple, William, “A Deadly Triangle. Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India”, Brookings, 25 June 2013,
    http://csweb.brookings.edu/content/research/essays/2013/deadly-triangle-afghanistan-
    pakistan-india-c.html
    Darnolf, Staffan, “Afghan Elections: Will the Voter Registry Be Ready for 2018?”, United States
    Institute for Peace, 26 January 2018, https://www.usip.org/publications/2018/01/afghan-
    elections-will-voter-registry-be-ready-2018
    Dawn, “Pakistan waging 'undeclared war of aggression' against Afghanistan, Ghani tells Kabul
    Process”, 6 June 2017, https://www.dawn.com/news/1337775
    Dawn, “India to get operational control of Iran’s Chabahar port”, 18 February 2018,
    https://www.dawn.com/news/1390165
    Deutsche Welle, “India rules out troops for Afghanistan, stresses development, training role”,
    26 September 2017, http://www.dw.com/en/india-rules-out-troops-for-afghanistan-stresses-
    development-training-role/a-40694141
    Dilawar, Ismail; Haider, Kamran, “The Fence Driving a Wedge Between Pakistan and Afghanistan”,
    Bloomberg News, 31 October 2017, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-
    31/the-fence-driving-a-wedge-between-pakistan-and-afghanistan
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    20
    Dominguez, Gabriel, “Afghanistan receives first batch of Chinese military aid”, Jane’s Defence
    Weekly, 5 July 2016.
    Erickson, Amanda, “How the Islamic State got a foothold in Afghanistan”, 21 March 2018, The
    Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/03/21/how-
    the-islamic-state-got-a-foothold-in-afghanistan/?utm_term=.9b4ead57ca74
    Farmer, Ben, “China 'building military base in Afghanistan' as increasingly active army grows in
    influence abroad”, The Telegraph, 29 August 2018,
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/08/29/china-building-military-base-afghanistan/
    Felbab-Brown, Vanda, “Why Pakistan supports terrorist groups, and why the US finds it so hard to
    induce change”, The Brookings Institution, 5 January 2018,
    https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/01/05/why-pakistan-supports-
    terrorist-groups-and-why-the-us-finds-it-so-hard-to-induce-change/
    Gady, Franz-Stefan, “India to Deliver 4 More Helicopter Gunships to Afghanistan”, The Diplomat,
    4 April 2018, https://thediplomat.com/2018/04/india-to-deliver-4-more-helicopter-gunships-
    to-afghanistan/
    Gall, Carlotta, “In Afghanistan, U.S. Exits, and Iran Comes In”, The New York Times, 5 August 2017,
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/05/world/asia/iran-afghanistan-taliban.html
    Ghani, Ashraf, “I Will Negotiate With the Taliban Anywhere”, The New York times, 27 June 2018,
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/27/opinion/ashraf-ghani-afghanistan-president-peace-
    talks-taliban-.html
    Giustozzi, Antonio, “Al-Qaeda’s growing confrontation with the Islamic State in Afghanistan”, Jane’s
    Terrorism & Insurgency Monitor, 6 February 2018.
    Hecker, James B., “Department Of Defense Press Briefing By Major General Hecker via
    Teleconference from Kabul, Afghanistan”, US Department of Defense, 7 February 2018,
    https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1435192/department-of-
    defense-press-briefing-by-major-general-hecker-via-teleconference/
    HRW (Human Rights Watch), “Iran Sending Thousands of Afghans to Fight in Syria. Refugees,
    Migrants Report Deportation Threats”, Human Rights Watch, 29 January 2016.
    HRW (Human Rights Watch), “Iran: Afghan Children Recruited to Fight in Syria. Protection Gaps
    Increase Children’s Vulnerability”, 1 October 2017.
    Huasheng, Zhao, “Afghanistan and China’s new neighbourhood diplomacy”, International Affairs,
    vol. 92, no. 4, 2016.
    ICG (International Crisis Group), “The Iran-U.S. Trigger List”, 11 September 2018,
    https://www.crisisgroup.org/trigger-list/iran-us-trigger-list
    ICG (International Crisis Group), “Counter-terrorism Pitfalls: What the U.S. Fight against ISIS and
    al-Qaeda Should Avoid”, Special Report No. 3, 22 March 2017a.
    ICG (International Crisis Group), “Crisis Watch October 2017”, 2017b,
    https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch/october-2017
    ICG (International Crisis Group), “Crisis Watch January 2018”, January 2018,
    https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch/january-2018
    ICG (International Crisis Group), “Building on Afghanistan’s Fleeting Ceasefire”, 19 July 2018,
    International Crisis Group, https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/298-
    building-afghanistans-fleeting-ceasefire
    ICG (International Crisis Group), “Afghanistan: The Future of the National Unity Government”, Report
    No. 285, 10 April 2017.
    IHS Jane’s, “The failure of the Taliban’s 2017 urban offensive”, Jane's Terrorism & Insurgency
    Monitor, 27 October 2017.
    IISS (International Institute for Strategic Studies), “The Trump administration’s Afghanistan policy”,
    Strategic Comments, vol. 23, comment 33, 2017.
    Integrity Watch Afghanistan, “National Corruption Survey 2016: Afghan Perceptions and
    Experiences of Corruption”, 2016.
    Jackson, Allison; Abbas, Gohar, “China in Talks Over Military Base in Remote Afghanistan”,
    Military.com, 3 February 2018, https://www.military.com/daily-news/2018/02/03/china-talks-
    over-military-base-remote-afghanistan.html
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    21
    Jaim, Rupam, “In parched Afghanistan, drought sharpens water dispute with Iran”, Reuters, 17 July
    2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-iran-water/in-parched-afghanistan-
    drought-sharpens-water-dispute-with-iran-idUSKBN1K702H
    Jennings, Gareth, “Afghanistan in line to receive Mi-35 helos from India”, Jane’s Defence Weekly,
    21 December 2017.
    Katzman, Kenneth; Thomas, Clayton, “Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S.
    Policy”, 13 December 2017.
    Katzman, Kenneth, “Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies”, Congressional Research Service,
    19 January 2018.
    Kumar, Arushi, “Why China’s One Belt, One Road Matters for Afghanistan”, Carnegie India, 12 May
    2017, http://carnegieindia.org/2017/05/12/why-china-s-one-belt-one-road-matters-for-
    afghanistan-pub-69974
    Mashal, Mujib, and Jawaf Sukhanyar, “Bomber Attacks Afghan Scholars Gathered to Denounce
    Violence”, 4 June 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/04/world/asia/afghanistan-
    bombing-clerics.html
    Masood, Salman, “At U.S. Urging, Pakistan to Be Placed on Terrorism-Financing List”, The New
    York Times, 23 February 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/23/world/asia/pakistan-
    terror-finance-list.html
    McKirdy, Euan, “Under Imran Khan's leadership, what does the future of Pakistan look like?”,
    28 July 2018, https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/28/asia/imran-khan-leadership-pakistan-
    intl/index.html
    MEA India (Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India). “India and Afghanistan establish Direct
    Air Freight Corridor”, 19 June 2017a, http://www.mea.gov.in/press-
    releases.htm?dtl/28546/India+and+Afghanistan+establish+Direct+Air+Freight+Corridor
    MEA India (Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India), “Joint Statement on the 2nd Strategic
    Partnership Council Meeting between India and Afghanistan”, 11 September 2017b,
    http://mea.gov.in/bilateral-
    documents.htm?dtl/28936/Joint_Statement_on_the_2nd_Strategic_Partnership_Council_M
    eeting_between_India_and_Afghanistan_New_Delhi_September_11_2017
    Meyer, Josh, “The secret story of how America lost the drug war with the Taliban”, Politico,
    8 July 2018, https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/08/obama-afghanistan-drug-war-
    taliban-616316
    MFA Afghanistan (Ministry of Foreign Affairs Afghanistan), “Agreement on Strategic Partnership
    between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Republic of India”, 2011,
    http://mfa.gov.af/Content/files/Agreement%20on%20Strategic%20Partnership%20between
    %20Afghanistan%20and%20India%20-%20English.pdf
    Mitton, John, “The India-Pakistan rivalry and failure in Afghanistan”, International Journal, vol. 69,
    no. 3, 2014.
    Lomax, Gisella, “Iran needs more help to support Afghan refugees – UNHCR chief”, The UN Refugee
    Agency, 4 September 2018, http://www.unhcr.org/news/latest/2018/9/5b8e9f414/iran-needs-
    help-support-afghan-refugees-unhcr-chief.html
    Najafizada, Eltaf, “Iran Blamed for Afghan Attacks After Trump Scraps Nuclear Deal”, Bloomberg,
    23 May 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-23/iran-blamed-for-
    afghan-attacks-after-trump-scraps-nuclear-deal
    NATO, “Press conference by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg following the meeting of
    the North Atlantic Council with Resolute Support operational partner nations at the level of
    Defence Ministers”, 9 November 2017,
    https://www.nato.int/cps/su/natohq/opinions_148416.htm
    Nawaz, Shuja, “Trump’s Flawed Pakistan Policy. Why Islamabad Is Unlikely to Change”, Foreign
    Affairs, 10 January 2018.
    Nicholson, John W., “Military Operations in Afghanistan”, CSPAN, February 9 2017a., https://www.c-
    span.org/video/?423552-1/general-john-nicholson-tells-senate-stalemate-afghanistan
    Nicholson, John W., “Department of Defense Press Briefing by General Nicholson via teleconference
    from Kabul, Afghanistan”, US Department of Defense, 28 November 2017b,
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    22
    https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1382901/department-of-
    defense-press-briefing-by-general-nicholson-via-teleconference-fr/
    NRC (Norwegian Refugee Council), “Access to Tazkera and other civil documentation in
    Afghanistan”, 8 November 2016, https://www.nrc.no/globalassets/pdf/reports/af_civil-
    documentation-study_081116.pdf
    Olson, Richard G., “How Not to Engage With Pakistan”, The New York Times, 9 January 2018,
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/09/opinion/pakistan-trump-aid-engage.html
    Osman, Borhan, “The Cost of Escalating Violence in Afghanistan”, International Crisis Group,
    7 February 2018, https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/cost-escalating-
    violence-afghanistan
    Panda, Ankit, “First Indian Wheat Shipment Leaves for Afghanistan Via Iran's Strategic Chabahar
    Port”, The Diplomat, 30 October 2017, https://thediplomat.com/2017/10/first-indian-wheat-
    shipment-leaves-for-afghanistan-via-irans-strategic-chabahar-port/
    Popaizai, Ehsan, Wilkinson, Bard, “Two journalists among 20 killed in wrestling club blasts in Kabul”,
    6 September 2018, CNN World, https://edition.cnn.com/2018/09/06/asia/kabul-attack-
    wrestling-intl/index.html
    Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Afghan Electoral Body Seeks To Bar 35 Candidates Over Alleged
    Ties To Armed Groups”, 12 August 2018, https://www.rferl.org/a/afghan-election-committee-
    bars-candidates-with-alleged-links-armed-groups/29428301.html
    Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), “NATO Chief Says Could Help With Afghan Election
    Security”, 26 April 2018, https://www.rferl.org/a/afghan-election-security-nato-help-
    stoltenberg/29194075.html
    Rahi, Arwin, “Why the Durand Line Matters”, The Diplomat, 21 February 2014,
    https://thediplomat.com/2014/02/why-the-durand-line-matters/
    Rahim, Najim and Abed, Fahim, “New Taliban Attacks Kill Dozens of Afghan Soldiers and Police
    Officers”, The New York Times, 10 September 2018,
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/10/world/asia/taliban-attacks-afghanistan.html
    Rasmussen, Sune Engel, “Dam project promises water – but also conflict – for dusty Afghan border
    lands”, The Guardian, 22 March 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/global-
    development/2017/mar/22/afghanistan-dam-project-iran-nimruz-helmand-river
    Resolute Support, “Anti-corruption efforts get another boost”, 30 January 2017,
    https://rs.nato.int/news-center/feature-stories/2017/anticorruption-efforts-get-another-
    boost.aspx
    Resolute Support, “Mission”, 2018a, https://www.rs.nato.int/about-us/mission.aspx
    Resolute Support, “Taliban lose land, leaders, financing as Commandos operate across
    Afghanistan”, 5 March 2018b, http://www.rs.nato.int/news-center/press-releases/2018-
    press-releases/taliban-lose-land--leaders--financing-as-commandos-operate-across-
    afghanistan.aspx
    Reuters, “China denies planning military base in Afghanistan”, 29 August 2018,
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-afghanistan/china-denies-planning-military-base-
    in-afghanistan-idUSKCN1LE0X0
    Reuters, “Put back on terror-financing watch list, Pakistan vows to improve”, 30 June 2018,
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-militants-financing/put-back-on-terror-financing-
    watch-list-pakistan-vows-to-improve-idUSKBN1JQ075
    Sahak, Abdul Matin, “Taliban says defeats Islamic State fighters in north Afghanistan”,
    1 August 2018, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-islamic-
    state/taliban-says-defeats-islamic-state-fighters-in-north-afghanistan-idUSKBN1KM444
    Schmitt, Eric. “Pakistan’s Likely New Leader Could Complicate Afghan Peace Talks”, The New York
    Times, 31 July 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/31/world/asia/imran-khan-pakistan-
    us-afghanistan.html
    Shaheed, Anisa, “24% Of Polling Stations Face High Security Threats: IEC“, Tolo News, 2018a,
    https://www.tolonews.com/afghanistan/24-polling-stations-face-high-security-threats-iec
    Shaheed, Anisa, “IEC Reports Possible Delay in Polls Despite Growing Opposition“, Tolo News,
    2018b, https://www.tolonews.com/afghanistan/iec-reports-possible-delay-polls-despite-
    growing-opposition
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    23
    SIGAR (Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction), “Quarterly Report to the United
    States Congress”, 30 January 2018.
    SIGAR (Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction), “Quarterly Report to the United
    States Congress”, 30 July 2018.Sprenger, Sebastian, “Germany moves to boost presence in
    Afghanistan, training in Iraq”, Defense News, 7 March 2018,
    https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2018/03/07/germany-moves-to-boost-
    presence-in-afghanistan-training-in-iraq/
    The Asia Foundation, “A Survey of the Afghan People: Afghanistan in 2017”, 2017,
    https://asiafoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/2017_AfghanSurvey_report.pdf
    The White House, “Remarks by President Trump on the Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia”,
    21 August 2017, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-
    trump-strategy-afghanistan-south-asia/
    Tisdall, Simon, “Islamic State attacks show group is intent on killing Afghan peace hopes”, 1 August
    2018, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/01/afghanistan-us-look-
    taliban-for-help-isis-attacks-rise
    Tomovic, Dusica, “Montenegro to Send More Troops to Afganistan”, Balkan Insight, 22 February
    2018, http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/montenegro-pledges-to-send-more-troops-to-
    afganistan-02-21-2018
    Transparency International, “Corruption Perceptions Index 2017”, 21 February,
    https://www.transparency.org/news/feature/corruption_perceptions_index_2017
    Umarov, Akram, “Assessing China’s New Policy in Afghanistan”, Central Asian Affairs, vol. 4, no.4,
    2017.
    UN, “2016 International Trade Statistics Yearbook,” UN COMTRADE, 2016,
    ST/ESA/STAT/SER.G/65 (Vol. I)
    UN, “The situation in Afghanistan and its implications for international peace and security”, Report
    of the Secretary-General, 15 December 2017, [A/72/651-S/2017/1056].
    UNAMA, (United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan), “Highest Recorded Civilian Deaths
    From Conflicts at mid-year point – Latest UNAMA Update”, 15 July 2018,
    https://unama.unmissions.org/highest-recorded-civilian-deaths-conflict-mid-year-point-
    latest-unama-update.
    UNAMA (United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan), “New Agreement Enables Enhanced
    United Nations Support to Afghan Elections”, 25 July 2018,
    https://unama.unmissions.org/new-agreement-enables-enhanced-united-nations-support-
    afghan-elections
    UNAMA (United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan), “Afghanistan Protection of Civilians in
    Armed Conflict Annual Report 2017”, February 2018.
    UNDP, “Afghanistan Human Development Report”, 2007,
    http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/nationalreports/asiathepacific/afghanistan/nhdr2007.pdf
    UNOCHA (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs), “Afghanistan Weekly
    Field Report Week, 25 - 31 December 2017”, 2 January 2018.
    UNODC (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime), “World Drug Report 2018: Executive
    Summary,” June 2018a,
    http://www.unodc.org/wdr2018/prelaunch/WDR18_Booklet_1_EXSUM.pdf
    UNODC (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime), “World Drug Report 2018: Global Overview of
    Drug Demand And Supply”, June 2018b,
    http://www.unodc.org/wdr2018/prelaunch/WDR18_Booklet_2_GLOBAL.pdf
    UNODC (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime), “NATO-UNODC Partnership for Counter
    Narcotics Training in Central Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan (XAC/Z47)”, 20 May 2015.
    US DoD (US Department of Defense), “Enhancing Security and Stability in Afghanistan”, Report to
    Congress, June 2018.
    US DoD (US Department of Defense), “Enhancing Security and Stability in Afghanistan”, Report to
    Congress, 1 December 2017, [6-1C74FA8].
    US Lead IG (Lead Inspector General for Overseas Contingency Operations), “Operation Freedom’s
    Sentinel July 1, 2017 – September 30, 2017”, Report to the United States Congress, 2017.
    171 DSC 18 E fin
    24
    US Lead IG, (Lead Inspector General for Overseas Contingency Operations), “Operation Freedom’s
    Sentinel October 1, 2017 – December 31, 2017”, Report to the United States Congress,
    2018.
    Wellman, Phillip Walter, “First Troops Among Front-Line Adviser Brigade Arrive in Afghanistan”,
    Military.com, 22 February 2018, https://www.military.com/daily-news/2018/02/22/first-troops-
    among-front-line-adviser-brigade-arrive-afghanistan.html
    Wasserbly, Daniel, “Mattis reveals new ‘rules of engagement’ for US forces in Afghanistan”, Jane’s
    Defence Weekly, 4 October 2017.
    Wu, Wendy, “All aboard for ‘One Belt, One Road’? Afghanistan freight train trip one stop in China’s
    bigger drive”, South China Morning Post, 13 September 2016.
    Yawar Adili, Ali, “Afghanistan Election Conundrum (2): A tight date and a debate about technology”,
    Afghanistan Analysts Network, 28 November 2017a, https://www.afghanistan-
    analysts.org/afghanistan-election-conundrum-2-a-tight-date-and-a-debate-about-
    technology/
    Yawar Adili, Ali, “Afghanistan Election Conundrum (1): Political pressure on commissioners puts
    2018 vote in doubt”, 18 November 2017b, https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/afghanistan-
    election-conundrum-1-political-pressure-on-commissioners-puts-2018-vote-in-doubt/
    Yusuf, Moeed; Smith, Scott, “Ashraf Ghani’s Pakistan Outreach. Fighting against the Odds”,
    United States Institute of Peace, Special Report 376, 2015.
    _______________________
    DEFENCE AND SECURITY COMMITTEE
    217 DSC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    Original: English
    RESOLUTION 447
    on
    BURDEN SHARING: NEW COMMITMENTS IN A NEW ERA*
    The Assembly,
    1. Concerned by threats to NATO’s territories and populations which could undermine peace
    and security;
    2. Recognising this security challenge demands a determined, unified, and capable Allied
    response;
    3. Recalling the new adaptation measures decided upon at the 2014 and 2016 Summits in Wales
    and Warsaw to address these threats;
    4. Welcoming the readiness and reinforcement initiatives announced at the 2018 Brussels
    Summit to ensure more rapid and effective Allied responses to any possible contingency in NATO
    territory;
    5. Aware a dynamic and mobile Allied deterrence posture requires significantly larger
    investments;
    6. Encouraged by continued US investment in European security via such initiatives as the
    European Deterrence Initiative (EDI);
    7. Understanding deterrence is a whole-of-Alliance undertaking, requiring investment and
    sacrifice from all Allies so that NATO is positioned to achieve collective defence, crisis management,
    and cooperative security in the face of any challenge;
    8. Recalling that Article 3 of the Washington Treaty commits all Allies to do their part to carry the
    burden of Alliance initiatives, operations, and tasks;
    9. Remembering the Defence Investment Pledge undertaken at the 2014 Wales Summit which,
    inter alia, commits Allies to aim to move towards the guideline of spending 2% of their Gross
    Domestic Product (GDP) on defence by 2024 and investing 20% or more of their defence budgets
    on major equipment, including related research and development, with a view to meeting their NATO
    capability targets and filling NATO’s capability shortfalls, and noting that the Defence Investment
    Pledge (DIP) is not only Cash, but also Capabilities and Commitments, as the so-called three “Cs”
    accurately reflect the Allies’ level of solidarity, which indeed represents the basic pillar of the
    Alliance’s credibility;
    * Presented by the Defence and Security Committee and adopted by the Plenary Assembly on
    Monday 19 November 2018, in Halifax, Canada
    217 DSC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    2
    10. Encouraged by the economic recovery across the Alliance, which has helped underwrite over
    USD87 billion in new defence spending by NATO European Members and Canada since 2014;
    11. Noting that since 2014, the NATO PA has conducted a consequential and positive dialogue
    on burden sharing that has helped build a political consensus supporting the notion that more must
    be done to ensure a strong and capable NATO for the future;
    12. Applauding the fact that five Allies are now spending over 2% of GDP on total defence
    spending, while 15 Allies have achieved or surpassed the 20% threshold for new investments;
    13. Welcoming both the 2016 NATO-EU Joint Declaration, which has fostered closer NATO-EU
    cooperation, and reenergised collective defence efforts in Europe, including rising contributions to
    the European Defence Fund (EDF) and to the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) which
    are helping to deepen defence cooperation among EU member states;
    14. Aware that the majority of Allies have not yet reached the Defence Investment Pledge
    guideline, and that Allies have agreed to regularly submit credible national plans for its
    implementation;
    15. URGES the member governments and parliaments of the North Atlantic Alliance:
    a. to recognise the challenging and rapidly evolving security environment facing the Alliance,
    while redoubling national efforts to move towards the 2% guideline for defence spending by
    2024 as all Allies agreed at the 2014 Wales Summit;
    b. to aim to increase their annual investments into new equipment and related research and
    development to 20% of total defence expenditures focused on obtaining a force structure best
    suited for not only national defence requirements, but also the most effective contribution to
    broader Alliance security needs according to the NATO Defence Planning Process (NDPP);
    c. to submit credible national plans outlining the steps their nations will take to achieve the type
    and amount of investment in defence necessary to engage a whole-of-Alliance effort to meet
    the security challenges facing NATO today and in the future.
    16. ASKS its own Members:
    a. to familiarise themselves with the NDPP as a means of better understanding both the positive
    impact of their countries’ contributions and the strategic and fiscal benefits of deeper
    coordination and synchronisation in defence planning and procurement;
    b. to solicit information from their respective defence establishments about how their nations are
    responding to NATO requirements and streamlining spending to make their current
    contributions as effective as possible;
    c. to help lead the debate about defence spending and their nation’s contributions to the Alliance.
    _______________
    DEFENCE AND SECURITY COMMITTEE
    218 DSC 18 E rev. 2 fin
    Original: English
    RESOLUTION
    on
    REINFORCING NATO’S DETERRENCE IN THE EAST *
    The Assembly,
    1. Acknowledging that NATO’s territories and populations face significant conventional
    and hybrid threats, particularly in the East;
    2. Aware that NATO-Russia relations are at the lowest point since the end of the Cold War,
    cognizant of Russia’s large-scale military aggression against Georgia in 2008, continuous illegal
    occupation and steps towards factual annexation of the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and
    Tskhinvali/South Ossetia, and mindful that Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea prompted quid pro
    quo sanctions, rancorous rhetoric, and high levels of mistrust;
    3. Alarmed by Russia’s increasingly escalatory and reckless pattern of behaviour in the form
    of cyber attacks, the use of force against its neighbours, the illegal use of chemical nerve agents for
    attempted murder on Allied territory, as well as its insidious undermining of democratic institutions
    and principles through its use of election interference and disinformation campaigns;
    4. Cognizant that Russia’s doctrinal shift from 2010 to 2014 has reaffirmed NATO as its de
    facto competitor and that it views NATO activities in Central and Eastern Europe as direct threats to
    Russian national interests;
    5. Concerned by Russia’s deployment of modern anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) systems
    along NATO’s eastern flank, which could impede the Alliance’s freedom of movement;
    6. Stressing the importance of the Enhanced Forward Presence in Poland and the Baltic States
    and the Tailored Forward Presence in the Black Sea Region as key defence and deterrence
    measures to secure NATO’s eastern flank;
    7. Welcoming Georgia’s engagement in strategic discussion and mutual awareness on Black
    Sea security and Georgia’s contribution to NATO’s efforts to enhance Black Sea security;
    8. Recognising that NATO’s eastward enlargement has resulted in the need for strategic
    enhancements, specifically concerning outdated infrastructure and bureaucratic regulations, which
    could delay the quick movement of troops and supplies;
    9. Noting that many of the significant concerns in NATO about infrastructure and regulations
    impeding military mobility can be found in Suwalki Corridor, the location of which between
    * Presented by the Defence and Committee and adopted by the Plenary Assembly on
    Monday 19 November 2018, Halifax, Canada
    218 DSC 18 E rev. 2 fin
    2
    Kaliningrad and Belarus makes it a potential choke point between the Baltic States and the rest of
    the Alliance’s eastern members;
    10. Applauding the EU Transportation Coordinating Committee’s EUR 1.9 billion investment in
    strategic infrastructure in Eastern Europe and other major improvements in necessary infrastructure
    developments in NATO’s eastern flank, and recognising that the impetus must now be on NATO
    and the EU working together to deliver the shared goal of being able to move NATO forces (both
    EU- and non-EU Member States) across Europe as quickly as possible;
    11. Recognising the Trident Juncture 2018 exercise in Norway offered a crucial opportunity to
    test the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF);
    12. Commending the installation of the new NATO Joint Force Command for the Atlantic in
    Norfolk, Virginia, and the US Navy’s reactivation of the Second Fleet as necessary for the protection
    of the North Atlantic;
    13. Supporting the NATO Readiness Initiative (30-30-30-30 Plan) as essential to meeting the
    demands of NATO’s new defence and deterrence posture;
    14. Praising the Enablement Plan for SACEUR’s Area of Responsibility as a means of improving
    NATO forces’ response time in a potential crisis;
    15. Upholding NATO’s dual track approach towards Russia, based on a combination of
    deterrence, defence and dialogue;
    16. URGES member governments and parliaments of the North Atlantic Alliance:
    a. to continue to ensure the sustainability and readiness of NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence
    in the Baltic States and Poland, and the Black Sea region, VJTF, and enhanced NATO
    Response Force;
    b. to address existing barriers to military mobility at the legal and infrastructure levels in Europe
    through enhanced NATO-EU cooperation;
    c. to invest in the improvement of strategic infrastructure as a necessary element of countering
    hybrid warfare, such as improved roads, bridges, communication infrastructure, ports and
    airports and to reinforce the security of energy projects;
    d. to develop an early warning system to detect a possible incursion into the strategically vital
    Suwalki Corridor, develop infrastructure for quick deployment and sustainment of troops and
    the necessary manpower to defend the essential territorial link with the Baltic States;
    e. to deepen dialogue and engage Georgia in the framework of NATO’s Tailored Forward
    Presence (tFP);
    f. to further the implementation of NATO’s Readiness Initiative which is essential to meeting the
    demands of NATO’s new defence and deterrence posture and its reinforcement;
    g. to demonstrate continued commitment to the Enablement Plan for SACEUR’s Area of
    Responsibility, which is dedicated to improving legislation and procedures, enhancing
    command and control, and increasing transport capacity;
    h. to address force deficiencies, develop faster deployment times, and make available the
    resources necessary to sustain deployed forces;
    218 DSC 18 E rev. 2 fin
    3
    i. to ensure the Alliance has the necessary means to reinforce Allies in an A2/AD environment,
    potentially through the acquisition of advanced fighter jets, jamming systems, and longer-range
    precision missile systems;
    j. to commit to resourcing Alliance contingency plans, including force allocation needs of
    Graduated Response Plans that address Eastern threats.
    _______________
    ECONOMIC AND SECURITY
    COMMITTEE (ESC)
    THE FUTURE OF THE
    SPACE INDUSTRY
    General Report
    by Jean-Marie BOCKEL (France)
    General Rapporteur
    173 ESC 18 E fin | Original: French | 17 November 2018
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    I. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................1
    II. CHANGING DYNAMICS OF THE SPACE INDUSTRY..........................................................2
    III. STATE OF THE CURRENT COMMERCIAL SPACE MARKET .............................................5
    A. SATELLITES ................................................................................................................5
    B. LAUNCH SERVICES....................................................................................................6
    C. GROUND EQUIPMENT................................................................................................7
    D. POTENTIAL FUTURE MARKETS ................................................................................8
    IV. NATO AND THE COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY ...........................................................8
    V. OPPORTUNITIES ............................................................................................................... 10
    A. ECONOMIC BENEFITS.............................................................................................. 10
    B. INTERSTATE COOPERATION .................................................................................. 10
    VI. CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE..................................................................................... 11
    A. CYBER THREATS...................................................................................................... 11
    B. DEBRIS ...................................................................................................................... 12
    C. TREATY AND REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT......................................................... 13
    D. INTERSTATE COMPETITION AND THE MILITARISATION OF SPACE.................... 14
    BIBLIOGRAPHY.................................................................................................................. 16
    173 ESC 18 E fin
    1
    I. INTRODUCTION
    1. Sixty years ago, the Soviet Union successfully launched the first artificial satellite; Sputnik I.
    This event inaugurated what came to be known as the Space Race, a period of intense direct
    competition for supremacy in space mainly between the United States and the Soviet Union. It was
    hardly surprising that other actors were initially excluded from this competition given the scale and
    costs of the effort the two superpowers were willing to undertake. The US National Aeronautics and
    Space Administration’s (NASA) Apollo programme, for example, employed more than 400,000
    people and cost USD 110 billion when adjusted for inflation (Baiocchi and Wel, 2015). Additionally,
    early space programmes posed inordinate risks and led to various training and spaceflight-related
    deaths and injuries. These costs far exceeded what most countries were willing to bear, and no
    individual or private company would ever even have considered embarking upon such an
    undertaking without state support.
    2. Despite these costs, space programs accorded significant strategic and economic benefits.
    While there is no definitive study on the full technological impact of space programmes, commercial
    spin-offs from national space programmes have clearly had a major impact on the economy of the
    United States and is inextricably linked to the digital revolution. The US space programme helped
    nurture a network of firms capable of commercially exploiting emerging technologies. Thus, the need
    for advanced computing and smaller electronics for space flight contributed to significant advances
    in a range of fields from computers to advanced materials. Satellites, which were essentially built by
    governments for military surveillance and reconnaissance, ultimately enabled global
    telecommunications and GPS technologies. One study on the macroeconomic effects of the US
    space programme suggests that each dollar spent on research and development yielded an average
    of slightly over seven dollars in commercial returns over an 18-year period (Schnee, 2000).
    3. The close links between space projects and commercial endeavours are once again a headline
    generating phenomenon. All the leading space powers are advancing important exploration
    programmes: China’s Moon programme and various Mars programmes (driven by private players
    such as SpaceX NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA). Space remains a critical frontier
    for strategic and economic competition among states, and this effort continues to produce significant
    technological advances. Moreover, the list of states with national space programs has increased
    markedly. Europe has pooled its efforts through the European Space Agency, and, since the Lisbon
    Treaty, it has collectively derived a benefit of scale through EU programmes such as Galileo and
    Copernicus. China, India and Japan are now prominent players, and a number of other countries
    have also entered the field. International cooperative programs have resulted in new links being
    created, often in the form of common projects.
    4. Space-related technologies have helped drive this growth and played an essential role in
    knitting together an interconnected USD 78 trillion global economy (NATO PA, 2017). At the same
    time, they have enabled nuclear deterrent systems, facilitated ground, air and sea-based military
    operations, and triggered major advances in meteorology, Earth observation, mapping, the internet
    and communications. Although the original paradigm for space exploration was one of a Cold War
    race for predominance, space has also become an arena of significant international cooperation.
    The International Space Station (ISS) is a perfect expression of interstate collaboration in space,
    and there are myriad examples of shared missions, international procurement and joint scientific
    projects.
    5. At the same time, space remains an important arena for interstate competition, perhaps best
    encapsulated in the proliferation of intercontinental ballistic missiles but evident also in areas such
    as missile defence, military communications, command and control, surveillance and intelligence
    gathering. The United States government still spends over USD 40 billion annually on space, with
    the funding largely split between the Pentagon and NASA. European Space Agency member-states
    spend over USD 6 billion each year while Russia spends an estimated USD 1.6 billion on its space
    endeavours (European Space Agency, 2016). Precise figures for China remain elusive.
    173 ESC 18 E fin
    2
    6. A revolution in space funding, exploration and commercialisation is also underway. Spurred
    by major technological advances and the promise of triggering technological and commercial
    breakthroughs, new actors, including developing countries, private firms and even individuals are
    now playing in an arena once dominated almost exclusively by powerful countries. These actors are
    altering the dynamics of the space industry and raising important commercial and strategic questions
    for policymakers in all NATO member states. This general report will explore the paradigmatic shift
    that is now broadly labelled “new space” and identify the key opportunities and challenges that NATO
    member states confront as this critical dimension of human activity undergoes a revolution in
    technology, opportunity, expectations and leadership.
    II. CHANGING DYNAMICS OF THE SPACE INDUSTRY
    7. One of the features of new space is that private firms are no longer simply operating as
    contractors to nation states but are themselves becoming key protagonists in space. To take one
    notable example, in 2018, SpaceX launched 15 rockets, which among other things sent a
    Luxembourg-made satellite to be used by NATO into orbit. It also sent a Tesla automobile into space
    as a marketing stunt and a way to announce that the company was prepared to reinvent the way
    companies conceive of space (SpaceX, 2018). In in 2017 that company launched 18 rockets and
    recovered 14 reusable boosters (The Economist, 2018). Blue Origin plans to launch the first tourists
    into space by April 2019 (Wattles, 2017). Commercial actors are also roiling European markets and
    compelling traditional actors to up their game. Europe itself has become an ever more important
    protagonist in space and European firms now rival their American competitors across an array of
    technologies and are thus helping to advance European ambitions. At the same time, developing
    countries are making significant advances in their own their space programmes. China may now be
    spending more on space than the Russian Federation (Clark, 2016). Indeed, more than 60 states
    currently own and operate satellites, and the space market is growing ever more globalised and
    diverse (OECD, 2016).
    8. Traditionally, investors have considered the commercial opportunities of space to be “high risk,
    high cost, and [characterised by] long payment periods” (Wakimoto, 2018). In 2011, NASA estimated
    that the average cost of a manned space shuttle mission was USD 450 million, with unmanned
    rockets costing roughly USD 420 million each (Bray, 2017). Insurance costs, meanwhile, can amount
    to USD 800 million (Basak, 2016). This figure is nonetheless a high estimate of the annual insurance
    market, with insurance representing on average about 10% of the cost of a launch. Even discounting
    the potentially catastrophic financial and reputational cost of a launch failure, opportunities for
    significant profit in the industry have long seemed limited. Until 1982, the US government was
    responsible for launching all civil and commercial payloads within its borders. Launch vehicles
    themselves were only produced under contract with the US government, and the bidding process for
    these contracts tended to be non-competitive due to the government’s reliance on a limited number
    of aerospace giants and its need for supply security over cost competitiveness (Berger, 2017).
    9. Several important changes, however, have dramatically reduced barriers to entry and
    increased private interest in space. First, gradual improvements in managerial practices and the
    falling cost and size of technology are slashing launch and payload costs. SpaceX has expressly
    designed its Falcon rockets, for example, to maximise standardisation, which, in turn, has reduced
    the number of processes and the tooling required prior to any given launch while diminishing unit
    costs of critical parts. Advances in rocket engine design, meanwhile, have lowered combustion
    instability and driven down the material costs (Chaikin, 2012). The digital revolution and
    minutarisation have increased the power of critical satellite technology while reducing its size and
    weight—key drivers of launch costs.
    10. Driven by these changes, the space sector has begun to have a more profound impact on the
    broader economy. Ever-smaller telecommunications satellites are now playing a pivotal role in
    corporate strategy by offering space-based solutions to inherently Earth-bound problems (OECD,
    173 ESC 18 E fin
    3
    2016). As savings from these advances mount, companies are encouraged to build upon existing
    space-based systems and to develop new capabilities serving an ever expanding array of
    commercial markets.
    11. Reusable rockets are among the most promising of these advances provided the restoration
    costs, which are currently very high, are under control. This technology substantially reduces costs
    by allowing officials to launch the same rocket multiple times. In 2010, SpaceX launched a payload
    into orbit with the rockets returning to Earth for eventual reuse. This made it the first non-government
    entity ever to achieve this feat. In 2015, it recovered the first stage of one of its rockets (Kluger,
    2018). In 2017, it launched one of the most powerful rockets in human history and successfully
    landed its two outer stages, which can now be redeployed in future missions (Hern, 2018). In 2015,
    another private company, Blue Origin, designed and launched a reusable suborbital rocket, which
    will help that company substantially reduce its production costs (Kim and Orwig, 2017).
    12. Traditionally government support has been a critical driver of technological change linked to
    the space industry. Private corporations in the United States, for example, were long granted access
    to their country’s space agency’s technical archive. They also benefited from the secondment of
    NASA experts. These favourable conditions helped these firms to make technological leaps that took
    decades to refine and billions in public funds to finance (Chaikin, 2012). Cooperation between
    government scientists and private industry triggered compelling advances in an array of critical
    components, such as heat shield materials, that ultimately also had important commercial
    applications (Werner, 2015). Governments have also played a compelling financial role and
    sustaining the space sector through a system of research grants, contracts, and other agreements
    with the private sector. Even after a technology’s usefulness is demonstrated, it can still require
    significant direct or indirect public support before it becomes a marketable component or platform.
    Investment costs can be daunting, and the risks often remain too high for companies alone to
    shoulder (OECD, 2016). The United Launch Alliance, a joint programme between Boeing and
    Lockheed Martin, for example, receives roughly USD 800 million a year from the US military through
    a launch capability contract (Gruss, 2016).
    13. In the United States, however, there is a strong risk-taking ethos linked to its entrepreneurial
    culture, and other financial options have emerged. The role of so called “angel-financiers” played a
    critical role in the rise of the digital economy. These risk-taking investment companies poured billions
    of dollars into start-ups with good ideas and talented engineers but little capital to help them bring
    these ideas to fruition. The success of this model is well documented and some of it has spilled over
    into the space market. That should hardly be surprising, particularly as the digital revolution itself is
    a central feature of the new space paradigm. In any case, those pushing the technological and
    commercial frontiers of space in the United States have financial options that are less available in
    Europe and Japan, for example. It is accordingly correct to speak of different national models at play
    in this rapidly changing sector.
    14. Managerial revolutions are another element of the story. Driven by competition, leading
    companies have reduced production costs and sped up production lines by tightening up supply
    chains, tapping into robotics and digital printing technologies, and even producing key components
    in-house. The ArianeGroup in Europe, for example, is using digital printers to manufacture its own
    critical titanium components and has made enormous savings doing so (NATO PA Visit to Paris and
    Toulouse, October 2018). SpaceX manufactures and assembles more than 70% of its launch
    vehicles to reduce its dependence on any single supplier (SpaceX, 2013). Off-the-shelf components
    can play a critical role in driving down costs. SpaceX claims to save between USD 45,000 and
    USD 95,000 for a single radio compared to the price of radios aerospace companies typically
    purchase (Koebler, 2015). Blue Origin recently unveiled its own rocket factory that will be responsible
    for designing and rebuilding reusable rockets (Kim and Orwig, 2015). Virgin Galactic has assembled
    a vertically-integrated team capable of producing and testing many rocket components in-house
    (Foust, 2015). For new entrants to the market, expertise is increasingly consolidated within single
    firms instead of across a multiplicity of vendors and contractors. The process of designing, testing,
    173 ESC 18 E fin
    4
    and improving products in all of these companies has been streamlined in new and innovative ways.
    Creative management and new design approaches have thus been central to slashing costs in this
    burgeoning industry.
    15. Increased competition has made such cost-cutting essential. For a long time, government
    largesse helped insulate the commercial space industry from traditional market pressures. Reflecting
    its space programme’s national security and prestige-based origins, the US government passed laws
    that imposed restrictions on the ability of foreign companies to work within its borders. This
    undermined the kind of dynamism that trade competition generally encourages and some of these
    practices, many of which are rooted in security concerns, persist (Zelnio, 2006). The International
    Traffic in Arms Regulation (ITAR), for example, sets restrictive rules on the trade of US technologies,
    and this actually helped galvanise European manufacturers to develop their own technologies
    outside of US export controls (Hauser and Walter-Range, 2008). ITAR’s broad mandate,
    extraterritorial reach, and slow and unpredictable process, almost paradoxically fed the proliferation
    of non-US space firms developing their own technologies and pushing the frontiers of space in new
    directions.
    16. In the United States, major companies like Lockheed Martin and Boeing overcame these
    barriers thanks to exclusive contracts with the US government. But this left smaller competitors
    effectively barred from the market. The government had few options but to sign exclusive
    agreements with large space companies. In effect, government policy helped create monopolies or
    at least oligopolies and this failed to provide sufficient incentives to innovate or drive down costs.
    17. In 2014, however, the US Department of State reclassified most commercial, civil and scientific
    satellites and accompanying equipment under the Department of Commerce’s “Commerce Control
    List” (CCL) making it significantly easier for private companies in the US space industry to sell in the
    international market. Whilst ITAR still restricts many aspects of the US space industry, this revision
    constituted an important step towards loosening restrictions that were impeding the market.
    18. Lawsuits, policy changes, and a growing awareness of the economic consequences of ITAR
    rules sparked a degree of rethinking in the United States and elsewhere. New policies have
    encouraged competition and helped open the commercial market to other actors. This competition
    has, in turn, created incentives for the industry to build ever cheaper and more capable products. In
    2006, NASA stopped using government-operated rockets to resupply the International Space Station
    and has since relied on private industry (Grush, 2017). A subsequent analysis of this change found
    that NASA spends roughly USD 89,000 per kilogram of cargo. The same service by a traditional
    aerospace giant would have cost USD 135,000 per kilogram while a government-run service would
    have cost USD 272,000 per kilogram. The same analysis also estimated the cost of a start-up firm
    running a crew rotation for the International Space Station as compared to a similar operation
    conducted by an aerospace giant. The former would cost USD 405 million while the latter would be
    priced USD 654 million (Zapata, 2017). According to analysts, SpaceX charges USD 4,653 per
    kilogram to launch a telecommunications satellite into orbit while traditional aerospace companies
    charge between USD 14,000 and 39,000 per kilogram (Routh, 2017). This represents a profoundly
    disruptive change to the industry with long-term commercial, scientific and even military-security
    implications. The price fall is a function of regulatory change, managerial innovation, competition and
    critical technical innovation.
    19. These advances have also sparked intense interest among well-financed space enthusiasts
    and entrepreneurs. Motivated by an abiding personal interest in space and driven by a belief that he
    could dramatically drive down costs, Elon Musk, the US entrepreneur who earned millions after
    selling his firm Paypal, founded SpaceX with a USD 100 million investment primarily composed of
    his own money (Tilley, 2016). Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, is selling USD 1 billion of stock a
    year to finance his aerospace company, Blue Origin (St. Fleur, 2017). These entrepreneurs have a
    personal interest in space and a belief that they can push out the space frontier while identifying
    173 ESC 18 E fin
    5
    projects that can generate long-term profits. Their personal wealth has afforded them the opportunity
    to stretch out investment horizons in this changing but still high-cost and risky business.
    III. STATE OF THE CURRENT COMMERCIAL SPACE MARKET
    20. Although there has been a tendency to focus on the large players in the US space industry,
    Europe has emerged as a major player in these markets. The French company Arianespace, for
    example has been a key innovator in commercial launch services. European satellite manufacturers
    and operators, such as Airbus DS, Thales Alenia Space, OHB, Eutelsat and SES, rank among the
    world leaders. The US government, however, spends significantly more on space-related activities
    than any other country. In 2014, the institutional space budgets of the United States exceeded USD
    4 billion, significantly more than any other countries (OECD, 2014). Its commercial space sector has
    been bolstered by innovation, risk taking and a financial structure that encourages risk taking and
    seeks to reap large rewards as pay off.
    21. The commercial space industry, however, is growing increasingly globalised, and there are
    challenges to traditional US dominance. European companies, for example, now control about 40%
    of the world market for satellite manufacturing, launching, and operations (European Commission,
    2009). Although its position has recently declined due to launch failures and the rise of less
    expensive alternatives, the Russian Roscosmos provided NASA with rocket components as recently
    as 2014 (Wright, 2014). Virgin Galactic, a company founded by a British investor, Richard Branson,
    has invested substantial resources into commercial spacecraft and suborbital spaceflights.
    22. Though rapidly evolving, the current space industry can be divided into three core sectors:
    Satellites; Launch Services; and Ground Equipment. The following section explores the current
    environment shaping these sectors and points to the direction in which they are now moving.
    A. SATELLITES
    23. Satellites make up the most developed sector of the space industry due to their place in the
    architecture of the global economy. From 2012 to 2017, the number of satellites in space increased
    from 994 to 1,459. This number is expected to rise to 7,000 within several years (NATO PA visit to
    Paris and Toulouse, October 2018. Meanwhile, revenue across the sector increased from USD
    113.5 billion to 127.7 billion (Bryce Space and Technology, 2017). Though satellites serve myriad
    functions, the sector itself can be divided into two parts: manufacturing and services. Designing,
    deploying and maintaining these systems is a highly complex and expensive undertaking, but it can
    generate enormous paybacks. The generated know-how involved spillovers into other commercial
    sectors beyond those directly involved with satellite production. The city of Toulouse, France,
    provides a case in point. Its booming economy is driven not only by its large satellite industry, but
    also by the spin-offs this sector generates, which have helped launched an array of other industries
    in everything from digital services to material engineering.
    24. While governments and companies across the globe increasingly rely on satellites, the
    manufacture of these systems remains relatively centralised in a handful of companies that possess
    the skilled workforce, the scale, engineering capacity, and financial resources needed to produce
    reliable complex systems. These organisations include the European Thales Alenia Space, Airbus
    DS and OHB as well as various US companies, such as Maxar Technology (formerly SSL), Boeing,
    Lockheed Martin, and Orbital ATK. As the above list suggests, the United States is the largest
    manufacturer of these spacecraft, with Europe and Russia rounding out the list (Canis, 2016). In
    2016, government agencies purchased 382 satellites, almost three quarters of all devices launched.
    Satellite manufacturing has thus been largely driven by government demand. But this demand can
    fluctuate significantly over time. In 2016, for example, yearly commercial revenue shrank 13.1%
    partly because the government and private-sector customers had reached the end of their satellite
    replacement cycles, the period in which an active satellite must be replaced (Bryce Space and
    173 ESC 18 E fin
    6
    Technology, 2017). Some analysts suggest that the market suffers from significant overcapacity and
    has been hindered by delayed investment decisions in the conventional geostationary transfer orbit
    (GTO) satellite market. The expectation is that commercial demand will help reduce reliance on state
    customers and help fill orders.
    25. Satellites are very expensive, but costs are declining with the advent of small satellites, also
    known as “minisats”, which weigh less than 500 kilograms and “nanosats,” that can weigh as little
    as 3.5 kilograms. These small satellites are able to carry out certain tasks that were once only
    conducted by far larger vessels. Rapid advances in consumer electronics have transformed satellite
    technology and driven down costs and size. As price decreases and performance increases, the
    cost of manufacturing complex satellites accordingly falls. One small satellite producer, the
    US-based Orbital Sciences, claimed several years ago that its production and launch costs had fallen
    to between USD 150,000 and 1 million compared to the typical cost of USD 200 million to
    USD 1 billion for larger alternatives with similar functionality (The Economist, 2014). British
    manufacturer SSTL, the world leader in small satellites, offers entry-level solutions for less than
    USD 1 million. Larger satellites feature functionalities superior to those of small satellites. The
    Airbus-OneWeb satellite programme aims to launch 900 microsatellites - that weigh between 10 and
    20 kilograms - that will collectively provide affordable internet access to the entire world. The first of
    these micro satellites are being deployed in 2018. This is a highly ambitious trans-Atlantic project
    that has also demanded very rapid satellite production lines relying on robotics. The project has
    produced innovation on that front as well. SpaceX also plans to launch thousands of small satellites
    to enable global internet (Wattles, 2018). These kinds of innovations are believed to have generated
    an 11% increase in revenue for the Earth imagery industry in 2016 (Klotz, 2017). Payloads averaging
    13.1 kilograms are thought to have made up a quarter of all launches in 2016.
    26. According to the OECD, the top 25 actors in fixed satellite services, the architecture of which
    relies on ground terminals, generated USD 12 billion in revenue in 2013. Though the top five players
    in this particular market represented 70% of that revenue, this share has dropped due to increasing
    competition from emerging players (OECD, 2014). Satellite broadcasting, meanwhile, is estimated
    to have a market of USD 92 billion. As of 2017, satellite television made up almost a third of space-
    related commercial activity (Canis, 2016).
    27. Satellite services extend well beyond telecommunications. Earth observation start-ups raised
    USD 96 billion in 2017. The industry is moving rapidly from the business of collecting imagery from
    all over the globe to transforming data into actionable intelligence. Data analytics is expected to
    generate significant earnings for this sector over the coming years (Komissarov, 2018). This
    information is used to track trends in agriculture, disaster mitigation, mass migration, shipping, as
    well as to track piracy and other criminal activities including environmental crime. Atmospheric
    monitoring-satellites track weather patterns and help provide daily weather forecasts as well as
    predict droughts and floods. Transportation-related satellites provide geolocation services to
    consumers, delivery trucks, such as FedEx, and ride-sharing services, such as Uber (Canis, 2016).
    These same kinds of services obviously have important military applications and national security
    forces and intelligence agencies will remain important clients for the business. It is worth noting that
    originally, the GPS constellation was a military system and the Galileo programme will have a
    classified military dimension for EU members only.
    B. LAUNCH SERVICES
    28. The launch sector is perhaps less a driver of the space industry than it is an enabler for other
    activities. As much as the industry demands sophisticated electronics and well-engineered devices,
    it also needs to get this equipment into orbit. This poses a range of financial and technological
    challenges. In 2017, the United States, China, Russia, the European Union, India, Japan, Israel,
    Brazil and North Korea conducted 90 launches. Of these, 64 were commercially procured, 13 were
    not commercially procured, and 13 involved space vehicles (Bryce Space and Technology, 2018).
    173 ESC 18 E fin
    7
    Between 2004 and 2014, private companies sent an estimated 817 satellites into orbit, with 41% of
    these relating to telecommunications and 21% relating to Earth observation (Euroconsult, 2015).
    29. The commercial launch sector is estimated to be worth USD 5.4 billion and, in 2015, clients
    booked USD 2.6 billion in launch services (Canis, 2016). While the number of launches ebbs and
    flows over time, most experts expect an upward trend in the sector’s activities and profitability.
    Declining barriers to entry will likely spur additional growth and there seems to be an ever-larger
    space for commercial as opposed to government programs. In 2015, US companies conducted
    eight commercial launches (Dillingham, 2016). Between 2013 and 2018, SpaceX’s share of the
    global commercial market grew from 5% to over 60%, while Roscosmos, Russia’s state-run
    company, saw its share sharply decline from almost 50% to 5% (Hughes, 2017). Government-
    controlled facilities, such as the Kennedy Space Center in the United States and the Guiana Space
    Centre (CSG) in Kourou, have traditionally served as launch sites for commercial entities under very
    different economic conditions. SpaceX uses NASA’s facilities almost for free, which is not the case
    for Ariane at the CSG, which charges EUR 20 million per launch. In the United States alone, there
    are 19 active and licensed launch sites, ten of which are operated by US states in partnership with
    private industry. There are an additional three non-licensed sites, which can exist because
    companies own and operate them and exclusively use their own vehicles (Federal Aviation
    Administration, 2017).
    30. As discussed above, new market entrants and improved rocket technology drive many of these
    transformations. Reusable rockets, a recent innovation successfully tested by SpaceX in 2018,
    represent an especially promising advance that will further reduce costs and launch turnaround time.
    Nevertheless, this production choice which reduces the number of rockets produced, entails an
    increase in unit price. How quickly this technology will be integrated into the sector’s regular services
    is not yet apparent.
    31. One possible limiting factor on the launch industry is the extent to which the sector is “captured”
    by established companies. As the US Federal Aviation Administration noted in its 2018 assessment
    of the sector, most satellite operators have exclusive agreements with launch providers and are
    prohibited from “shopping their services around” (Federal Aviation Administration, 2018). Such
    exclusivity could limit potential savings insofar as it restricts competition, which invariably leads to
    higher than necessary prices.
    C. GROUND EQUIPMENT
    32. The final notable component of the space industry is ground equipment, which refers to the
    Earth-based infrastructure that directs the information transmitted from satellites to appropriate
    transmitters and receivers. This infrastructure includes antennas that allow for transmission and
    reception of different communications signals, such as satellite radio and television. It also includes
    user terminals, such as rooftop dishes for satellite televisions, large corporate dish antennae, and
    data accounting and distribution systems, which identify and respond to errors in transmission. Such
    systems tend to be highly automated and are only occasionally monitored by individuals (Canis,
    2016).
    33. With revenue amounting to USD 119.8 billion, of the total USD 248 billion revenue of the
    industry, ground services constitute a significant 34% of the space industry. Its largest segment,
    consumer equipment, including global navigation systems (GNSS), contributed USD 108 billion of
    those USD 119.8 billion. (The Space Industry Association, 2018) GNSS systems include small
    consumer products, such as standalone navigation devices and location-detecting chips in mobile
    phones, as well as larger, more complicated systems, including traffic control systems, aircraft
    avionics, and maritime trade networks. An additional USD 18.5 billion is spent on non-GNSS
    consumer equipment, including satellite television, radio, and broadband terminals, while a final
    USD 10 billion is spent on network equipment such as satellite news-gathering equipment (Bryce
    Space and Technology, 2017). Growth in this sector can be attributed to the growing need for GNSS
    173 ESC 18 E fin
    8
    chips in smartphones and other consumer products. As a result, between 2012 and 2016 alone,
    GNSS equipment grew from a USD 52.7 billion industry to one that generates USD 84.6 billion
    (Al-Ekabi, 2017).
    D. POTENTIAL FUTURE MARKETS
    34. The media spends an inordinate amount of time and print exploring the ambitious plans of
    emerging space companies and the entrepreneurs that lead them. Elon Musk, the CEO of SpaceX,
    and Jeff Bezos the owner of Blue Origin, have attracted a great deal of attention, and they have
    leveraged their personal wealth to build these ambitious firms. Because these firms are somewhat
    insulated from the immediate shareholder demands, they are positioned to focus on long term project
    including Moon and Mars missions, asteroid mining and space tourism as well as more immediate
    activities including rocket engine and launcher production.
    35. Tourism in space is not a new concept and was evoked even prior to the advent of the space
    age. However, in recent years, the notion has become considerably less abstract. Since 2001, brief
    orbital spaceflight has been available through expensive private ventures costing upwards of
    USD 20 million (Carrington, 2013). In 2017, SpaceX announced that it had booked two private space
    tourists for a trip around the moon in 2018 (SpaceX, 2017), but in February 2018, Elon Musk decided
    to delay the trip until the new Big Falcon Rocket is available (Clark, 2018). Other companies such
    as Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic have also devoted significant efforts to space tourism, with Jeff
    Bezos’ Blue Origin planning to open the service in 2019 (Clark, February 2018). The Russian Space
    agency has sent 7 paying clients into space.
    36. The sustainability of these efforts, however, remains to be seen given unclear market demand,
    the possibility of catastrophic failure and potential liability, and the enormous investments that civilian
    space travel would require. The sector will at best remain a niche market for the extraordinarily
    wealthy. Short spaceflights, epitomised by SpaceX’s effort, appear more likely and feasible than any
    long-term stay in space given the lack of necessary infrastructure and the high costs of such travel.
    The US Government Accountability Office does not believe any commercial company will be
    accredited to fly government astronauts until 2019, suggesting that a sustainable civilian space travel
    sector is not likely to emerge over the medium term (Government Accountability Office, 2017).
    37. A second often discussed commercial enterprise relates to the mining and recovery of natural
    resources outside of the Earth’s orbit. Throughout the universe, there are significant deposits of
    natural resources that theoretically could be recovered. Asteroids, for example, can contain nickel,
    platinum, iron, and cobalt. NASA estimates that the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, where
    over 1 million asteroids exist, has an estimated value of USD 700 quintillion (Desjardins, 2016).
    Several landings on large asteroids have already been undertaken to demonstrate the technical
    feasibility of beginning this industry, but the current cost structure would not seem to justify major
    efforts in this arena, at least at the moment. According to the Keck Institute for Space Studies at the
    California Institute of Technology, capturing a 500,000kg asteroid would cost around USD 2.6 billion
    and require significant advances in propulsion systems and ground-based observation, as well as a
    human presence in lunar orbit (Keck Institute for Space Studies, 2012). Given the costs, resource
    recovery likely remains decades away. Any natural resource recovery would also likely require a
    reworking of international treaties, such as the Outer Space Treaty, that prohibit states from claiming
    celestial bodies.
    IV. NATO AND THE COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY
    38. As the Alliance recognised in its 2010 Strategic Concept, maintaining unimpeded access to
    space is a major priority for the NATO and its members. Moreover, all members of the Alliance
    depend upon the vast network of shared space assets for deterrence, strategic communications,
    and navigation. As the NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s Sub-Committee on Future Security and
    173 ESC 18 E fin
    9
    Defence Capabilities emphasised in its 2017 report, The Space Domain and Allied Defence
    [162 DSCFC 17 E rev.1], “NATO needs a whole-of-alliance approach to protect its interests in space
    to enhance resilience and deter any threat to its space-based capabilities” (NATO PA, 2017).
    39. NATO itself is not currently focused on the space domain even if it remains important to areas
    like intelligence and surveillance and in missile defence. There are currently just six postings in
    NATO designated as space-operations positions in six different departments. Following the
    acknowledgement of the support that space assets have provided to NATO missions, especially the
    12-year long NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission in Afghanistan,
    NATO created a Bi-Strategic Command Space Working Group in 2012. One of the more ambitious
    but key recommendations for improving NATO’s space capabilities is the proposal for the creation
    of a NATO Space Operations Centre of Excellence to “offer recognised expertise and experience
    that is of benefit to the Alliance” (NATO, 2018). At the 2018 NATO Summit in Brussels, a decision
    was made to forge a joint NATO Space Policy – however, the timeline for the project is not yet
    established.
    40. The emergence of new actors in space and the proliferation of national space programs are
    likely to increase the importance of these capabilities. While NATO members such as the United
    States, France, Germany and the United Kingdom are world leaders in the space field, and countries
    like Canada and Luxembourg play important if smaller roles, an increasing number of countries that
    were not traditionally players in the market are developing new capabilities. NATO thus confronts a
    competitive challenge in the space domain. Six countries launched satellites into the Earth’s orbit for
    the first time in 2017. China has also rapidly increased its capabilities. Although a recent rocket
    failure has slowed China’s progress, it is nonetheless on track to launch the first module of its space
    station by 2019 (Jones, 2018). Though its technology remains relatively unsophisticated, North
    Korea has also become a player in space, largely as a result of its military ambitions. It now appears
    interested in launching more satellites, and last launched an Earth observation satellite,
    Kwangmyongsong-4, in February 2016 (Panda, 2018). Iran’s missile programme is also a major
    concern and has been the primary reason NATO has opted to construct a limited ballistic missile
    defence (BMD). As a range of countries enter this crowded market, NATO members will need to rely
    on their capacity to innovate to retain a competitive edge.
    41. Private actors could pose potential challenges as well as opportunities. In March 2018, a
    Californian company was accused of launching satellites without government approval. Officials fear
    that these satellites “pose an unacceptable collision risk for other spacecraft” (Dvorsky, 2018). After
    a New Zealand company launched a large “disco ball” into space in January 2018, astronomers
    complained about the bright satellite’s potential to interfere with their ability to observe and study
    space (Griffin, 2018). Ever lower entry barriers could also potentially engender problems of
    corporate negligence and misuse and might eventually open the space domain to malicious actors,
    including hackers and terrorist organisations. Western planners are already concerned about
    Chinese and Russian anti-satellite programmes and they now need to consider at least the possibility
    that these challenges could multiply as new actors launch orbital space endeavours.
    42. Beyond security, however, space-based systems are an increasingly important part of national
    and international economic and governance systems in a variety of sectors ranging from
    telecommunications to environmental monitoring. While NATO serves mainly as a political and
    military organisation, its members’ economic livelihood increasingly relies on unimpeded access to
    space and on its capacity to ensure the safety and survivability of space assets. The Alliance has an
    interest in preserving this economic capacity while deterring any threats that might make use of the
    space domain. At the technological level, military satellite designs increasingly incorporate elements
    of self defence capability to cope with potential threats to their survivability.
    43. NATO Joint Air Power (JAP) remains highly dependent on member states’ national
    space-based capabilities as they support Air, Maritime, Land, and Cyber domains. While NATO does
    not own or control space assets, JAP relies on them for “early and timely warning, space ISR, satellite
    173 ESC 18 E fin
    10
    communication, - and the provision of Position, Navigation and Timing information.” (NATO, 2018).
    Space assets have supported US military operations since First Gulf War (1990-1) – nicknamed “the
    first space war” and have supported critical NATO’s military operations including the intervention in
    Yugoslavia in 1999, as well as, later, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (Tombarge, 2014).
    V. OPPORTUNITIES
    44. The growing capabilities of the commercial space industry offer several notable opportunities
    for Allied countries. These include economic benefits linked to spin offs, the possibility for interstate
    cooperation, and public-private partnerships.
    A. ECONOMIC BENEFITS
    45. The commercial space market is growing rapidly. Between 2001 and 2011, economic activity
    in space transportation and related industries increased by 239% (Whealan-George, 2013). In 2015,
    the global space market amounted to USD 323 billion, while it is projected to grow to USD 1.1 trillion
    by 2040 (Hampson, 2017; Sabbagh, 2017). While much of this activity is linked to well-established
    markets (e.g. satellites for the television industry — a business valued at USD 95 billion), space
    enables an increasingly wide array of economic activities. It is also displacing traditional systems. In
    the Flanders region of Belgium, for example, geo-fencing and satellite communication have replaced
    underground sensors in the tram network (Space Foundation, 2017). In the commune of Alban (Tarn,
    France), a satellite communication system is used to manage the city’s drinking water and to provide
    real-time management and security of those supplies (Eurisy, 2018).
    46. There are plenty of signs to suggest that the commercial space market will play an increasingly
    important role in the global economy. In its 2016 report, the US Federal Aviation Administration noted
    that the commercial launch industry had seen few changes in the last five years, but that the lack of
    observable change “belies what is taking place behind the scenes”. The report further discusses how
    “[s]everal new launch vehicles are being developed specifically to address what some believe is
    latent demand among small satellite operators (Federal Aviation Administration, 2017).” The year
    2016 was the most significant investment year for space-related start-ups, and investors committed
    USD 2.8 billion for space ventures. Small satellites, as this report has suggested, provide further
    opportunities. Various companies have announced plans to use these devices to provide worldwide,
    fast access to the internet (Scoles, 2018).
    47. It is not possible to predict with certainty how these efforts will develop. Taken together,
    however, they point to the industry’s growing interest in space. This is reflected in long-term
    investment trends. From 2012 to 2017 investment into space start-ups (USD 10,238.3 million) was
    nearly three time greater than the total investment in 2000-2012 (USD 3,688.7 million) (Bryce Space
    and Technology, 2018). This poses a range of regulatory and market structuring challenges that will
    lead to evolving partnerships between the industry and governments in order to ensure security,
    foster competition and encourage innovation.
    B. INTERSTATE COOPERATION
    48. An additional benefit comes in the form of potentially enhanced international connectivity. As
    discussed, the space industry has become increasingly internationalised. Companies like
    Thales Alenia Space, Airbus DS and OHB derive enormous benefits from workforces and supply
    chains that stretch across the European Union. These companies provide a model for similar
    multinational commercial ventures. They also show how commercial interests can redefine how the
    notion of national interest is understood. While companies within the United States are somewhat
    more restricted in their ability to cooperate with foreign firms as a result of ITAR (the US International
    Traffic in Arms Regulation) and other laws, many other countries do not face such rigorous
    173 ESC 18 E fin
    11
    restrictions. That said, US firms have forged an array of important partnerships with their European
    counterparts.
    49. Rising commercial interest in space has also triggered a renewed focus on the treaty regimes
    governing the extra-terrestrial commons. In the United States, Senator Ted Cruz has pushed for
    revisions to the Outer Space Treaty, which bars states from placing weapons of mass destruction in
    space and requires non-governmental entities to seek state approval prior to engaging in any
    space-based activity. He argues that the treaty, designed over half a century ago, is now outdated
    (Foust, 2017). There are worries that legal ambiguities are undermining the nascent commercial
    space sector, and that the lack of clarification of property rights could either stifle innovation or lead
    to conflicts over ownership of space rocks. In other words, the treaty is increasingly seen as outdated.
    Congress has recently considered the Space Frontier Act of 2018, which would extend the operation
    and utilisation of the International Space Station and streamline oversight of both launch and re-
    entry activities, and non-governmental Earth observation activities. The legislation appears to have
    a degree of bipartisan support in the US Senate with Senator Cruz hoping to pass it by the end of
    the year (Cruz, 2018).
    50. Industry leaders are widely opposed to any revisions to the Outer Space treaty and have
    expressed reservations about “costly regulatory burdens” and the danger of uncertainty. This
    discussion is likely to grow more intense over the coming years. When the company Moon Express
    sought clearance to fly outside low Earth orbit in 2016, for example, it was unclear who within the
    United States Government had the authority to authorise that operation under the Outer Space
    Treaty. This issue points to the need to discuss treaty obligations and to undertake an effort to ensure
    that all participants in space agree to the same principles (Foust, 2017). Although a complete rewrite
    of the international treaty regime on outer space remains unlikely, there is clearly a need for an
    updated general code of conduct outlining the responsibility of states in overseeing commercial
    space activity planned and launched within their borders. The example of France, which amended
    its space legislation in 2008, is being studied by many countries, including the United States.
    VI. CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE
    51. Amid a field of opportunity, there are also substantial risks and challenges, including the
    potential cyberattacks, debris, regulatory barriers, and interstate hostility.
    A. CYBER THREATS
    52. Cyberattacks pose a growing threat to governments, companies, and civil society. While the
    linkages between this challenge and the space domain have not been widely explored, the potential
    hazard is no less significant. Attacks can come from individual hackers who want to test their skill,
    criminal organisations, terrorist groups or states seeking to achieve military advantage. Hostile
    operations might involve jamming and manipulating satellites to disrupt a communications network,
    targeting a satellite’s control systems to shut it down or alter its orbit, or targeting ground facilities to
    inhibit their ability to receive or interpret space-related data (Livingstone and Lewis, 2016) 1
    . Such
    attacks could have significant consequences and impact everything from telecommunications to
    credit card transactions. They could have immediate military implications if they were launched
    against military satellites, for example, employed for command, control and intelligence gathering
    purposes.
    53. There are signs that some actors are already testing these capabilities. In 2011, the
    US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a US government agency, accused China
    1 A basic overview of the technical components of these attacks can be found in the NATO Parliamentary
    Assembly’s Defence and Security Committee’s 2017 report, The Space Domain and Allied Defence
    [162 DSCFC 17 E rev.1].
    173 ESC 18 E fin
    12
    of interfering with two US environment-monitoring satellites via a cyberattack on their ground station
    in Norway (Wee, Wills and Nishikawa, 2011). In September 2014, the US National Oceanographic
    and Atmospheric Administration had its weather satellite network temporarily taken offline by a
    serious hacking attempt. US officials again accused China, which denied the allegations (Flaherty,
    Samenow and Rein, 2014). While these incidents had few long-term national security consequences,
    they revealed vulnerabilities in space-based systems. These incidents point to the need for secure
    networks and control systems. In 2014, two Russian researchers identified at least
    60,000 internet-connected systems that could be attacked through the internet (Pauli, 2014). In
    2017, leaked documents suggested that Russian intelligence services were capable of hacking
    satellite signals using relatively simple techniques (Bing, 2017). Despite the obvious strategic
    benefits associated with NATO’s increasing reliance on satellite support, that reliance also increases
    concerns about the vulnerabilities of those systems.
    54. While military satellites are generally well-protected and designed with security in mind,
    commercial satellites tend to be significantly more vulnerable due to a lack of resources devoted to
    satellite security. Some commercial operations do not consider themselves vulnerable simply
    because they have not faced persistent threats of attack. Such complacency is dangerous in the
    current environment, and the private sector needs to dedicate more resources to defending space
    systems, even those with no military functions.
    B. DEBRIS
    55. As detailed in previous reports, space-based systems are also increasingly threatened by
    debris collisions. The number of satellites in orbit is rapidly increasing as states and commercial
    actors expand their capabilities. These new satellites are, in turn, orbiting in an environment
    increasingly crowded with defunct or damaged satellites. NASA and the CNES (French Centre
    National d ’Etudes Spatiales) currently trackthousands of orbital debris and there are millions more,
    ranging from paint flecks to shrapnel, which are far too small to track (Garcia, 2013). While these
    materials might seem benign, they travel at incredible velocities and can disable or even destroy
    large satellites in the event of collisions. The US Strategic Command recorded over 8,000 collision
    warnings in 2014 alone, 121 of which required emergency evasive manoeuvres (Pellegrino and
    Stang, 2016).
    56. A significant source of concern is that space debris can create more space debris. When one
    object collides with another in space, both objects can fragment, scattering material that can cause
    further damage to other satellites and material. On 10 February 2009, a defunct
    Soviet-era satellite collided with an active American communications satellite, scattering a cloud of
    debris into higher and lower orbit (Broad, 2009). While not all collisions cause such dramatic
    structural damage, chips, craters, and erosion can gradually degrade a satellite’s structural integrity.
    At best, these incidents damage multi-million-dollar spacecraft and endanger astronauts on
    spacewalks. At worst, a collision can lead to Kessler syndrome, a theoretical scenario wherein pieces
    of debris crash into each other, leading to bigger and more frequent collisions (Szondy, 2018). This
    worst-case scenario has the potential to fatally contaminate orbital ranges and render them
    inaccessible for generations.
    57. Debris falling onto Earth also poses concerns over liability – whilst there have been no recent
    falls of debris with significant consequences, there is a concern over the fallout of such an event. For
    example, after China lost control of its Space Station Tiangong-1, it re-entered the atmosphere in
    April 2018, with most of it breaking apart and burning in the Earth’s atmosphere. (Kuo, 2018). Some
    of the space laboratory’s pieces survived the re-entry and crashed into the ocean. Had they crashed
    nearer to or on land, the issues of liability would have been much graver. The Space Liability
    Convention of 1972 states that “[a] launching state shall be absolutely liable to pay compensation
    for damage caused by its space object on the surface of the earth or to aircraft in flight” (UN, 1975).
    However, thus far, only one claim has been filed under this Convention when in 1978 the Soviet
    satellite Kosmos 954 crashed on Canadian territory.
    173 ESC 18 E fin
    13
    58. There have been attempts to reduce the amount of space debris through regulation and
    sustainable practices. By establishing requirements to reduce debris, Europe has reduced the level
    of space debris produced by its programs (Pellegrino and Stang, 2016). The Inter-Agency Space
    Debris Coordination Committee, an international government forum for space debris activities, and
    the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space have similarly sought to
    establish internationally accepted protocols and guidelines for preventing substantial releases of
    space debris. Government and private actors have also explored technological solutions, such as
    capturing and removing satellites. However, as stated by the European Institute for Security Studies,
    these technological solutions would require “an internationally agreed legal regime […] since the
    owner of the debris is the sole party responsible for it” (Pellegrino and Stang, 2016).
    C. TREATY AND REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT
    59. Efforts are underway to update national and international space law. Space law experts at the
    International Law Association have noted that the Outer Space Treaty’s general framework still has
    “gaps […] which remain open to interpretation.” These gaps include a lack of clarity regarding the
    ownership of certain celestial bodies and the legal status of resources there. There also legal
    challenges linked to controlling the hazards posed by space debris in the Earth’s orbit while rules
    are needed to govern private sector activity in space. (Currie, 2008) While the 1979 Moon Treaty
    provides some guidance, including rules on the extraction and management of celestial natural
    resources, these provisions require substantial international cooperation to ensure enforcement.
    This treaty obliges states to share extracted resources equitably with other states. To date no
    spacefaring state has ratified it.
    60. This legal void has allowed some governments to pass national laws to regulate space activity,
    but these laws do not necessarily conform to international obligations and laws in other states. The
    United States and Luxembourg allow their citizens and companies to possess, own, transport, use,
    and sell resources extracted from a celestial body. These laws grant ownership after the resources
    have been extracted to try to avoid conflict with the Outer Space Treaty’s prohibition on corporate
    ownership of celestial bodies. The head of the European Space Agency’s legal services,
    Marco Ferrazzani, has expressed an interest in developing new rules pertaining to space mining
    (Doldirina, 2018). While space mining on any mass scale still appears to be far off, these examples
    demonstrate the potential for conflict. The absence of a clear international consensus on appropriate
    conduct in space may lead to contradictory regulations from different national governments. These
    contradictions, in turn, could either stifle commercial activity or discourage enforcement of these
    different obligations.
    61. A related issue is the existence of Cold War-era national regulatory regimes that inhibit
    commercial activity. The most frequently discussed example of this situation is the United States
    International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), which restricts and controls defence and
    military-related technologies. The goal of the law is to impede other countries from reproducing
    US military capabilities, but academics and commercial space advocates have suggested that these
    regulations can also have unintended consequences that inhibit legitimate commercial
    developments. Many US companies working on space projects are prohibited from hiring or working
    with foreign persons without an export license or from sharing minor parts and components. As a
    result, commercial space companies outside the United States have simply sought to reduce their
    dependency on US materials (De Selding, 2016).
    62. Some organisations, such as the Space Foundation, have urged these regulations to be
    revised with input from experts in the space industry. Other recommendations have focused on the
    creation of defence trade treaties to enhance collaboration among companies in Allied states. In this
    respect, the work of the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS), especially
    its Legal Subcommittee, set up in 1959 by the General Assembly, is crucial in directing the
    development of international law on space exploration.”
    173 ESC 18 E fin
    14
    63. Most of what passes for governance takes the form of non-legally binding norms as well as
    UN resolutions and government regulations and practices. Because space law is so limited, national
    laws assume a degree of importance, particularly the laws of major actors in space. Interestingly
    there are no binding international laws on debris and debris generation. But an ad hoc group has
    been formed to draft technical regulations to limit debris. It has no legal standing as such, but many
    countries have adopted these standards as well as other non-binding agreements. This kind of
    practice helps impose a degree of uniformity to national rules governing activities in space. It also
    points to the degree to which rule making for operations in space has become a bottom-up rather
    than a top-down process. It is also worth noting that article 189 of the EU’s Lisbon treaty creates a
    shared competence on some space related matters. The European Space Agency has also helped
    furnish EU members with a set of shared norms even if these norms, are not elevated to the level of
    law.
    D. INTERSTATE COMPETITION AND THE MILITARISATION OF SPACE
    64. The thrust of international laws governing space is to ensure that access to outer space and
    celestial bodies remains unimpeded. The 1967 Outer Space Treaty, for example, reaffirms the
    importance of peaceful and lawful exploitation of the domain (UN General Assembly, 1966). Several
    international agreements reflect the international community’s resolve to create an overarching code
    of conduct for those operating in space. In addition to the aforementioned 1979 Moon Agreement,
    and the 1972 Space Liability Convention, the Rescue Agreement of 1968 and the Launch
    Registration Convention of 1975 have sought to regulate the modalities of space exploration. More
    recent discussions highlight the difficulties of reaching an international agreement on these matters.
    From 1985 to 1994, an ad hoc committee on a Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS)
    treaty discussed and negotiated the creation of such an agreement. Whilst China and Russia did
    propose a Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space and of the Threat
    and Use of Force Against Outer Space Objects (PPWT), the United States continues to oppose the
    initiative, arguing it is “fundamentally flawed” and lacks important provisions. (Foust, 2014) The
    discussion of PAROS continues in the UN Conference on Disarmament, and a number of countries
    remain very focused on matters pertaining to access to space. In its 1999 National Security Strategy,
    the United States declared that “unimpeded access to and use of space is a vital national interest —
    essential for protecting U.S. national security” (White House, 1999). The United Kingdom’s National
    Space Policy emphasises the country’s reliance on access to space services for a wide array of
    essential services (Javid and Letwin, 2015).
    65. Recent events suggest that space may no longer remain a peaceful common and that there is
    a real possibility that access might be limited under certain conditions. Speaking before the US
    House Armed Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, Department of Defense
    officials stated that the United States “can no longer view space as a sanctuary” because “potential
    adversaries understand [US] reliance on space and want to take it away” (Marshall, 2015).
    Dan Coats, the US director of National Intelligence, echoed these remarks in his May 2017 testimony
    to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. He stated that China and Russia felt increasingly
    compelled to undermine US military advantage as it related to military, civil, and commercial space
    systems and that both countries “are increasingly considering attacks against satellite systems as
    part of their future warfare doctrine” (Coats, 2017). In 2015, China unveiled its Strategic Support
    Force to develop and coordinate its space, cyber, and electronic warfare capabilities (Office of the
    Secretary of Defense, 2017).
    66. The United States’ mounting concerns about space-related risks are reflected in
    President Donald Trump’s recent call for the creation of a Space Force and the allocation of USD 8
    billion to space security systems over the next five years. In August 2018, the US Department of
    Defence outlined a plan to create such a force charged with defending US interests with aggressive
    offensive capabilities (Bachman, 2018). The proposed Space Force would likely assume
    173 ESC 18 E fin
    15
    responsibilities for the US Air Force’s role in tracking the world’s active satellites to make sure they
    do not collide with one another.
    67. To date, states have resisted positioning destructive weapons in space. However, various
    terrestrial weapons systems do depend upon space-based infrastructure and are produced by the
    private sector. Concepts for intercontinental ballistic missiles are designed and manufactured by
    private companies following competitive bidding processes in the United States (Erwin, 2018). Both
    the United Kingdom and France have recently made important investments in long-range missile
    systems that expand the core capabilities of the Alliance (Baldwin, 2017). SpaceX, meanwhile, has
    secured classified contracts with defence and security agencies (Seemangal, 2017). Russia and
    China have developed increasingly sophisticated precision-guided missiles and military
    communications technology. Both countries have also developed counterspace systems, sought to
    modernise their military satellites, and developed anti-satellite missiles.
    68. While there has not yet been an attack on a commercial spacecraft, these developments could
    have a potentially chilling effect on the private sector’s willingness to invest in the domain.
    Corporations do not like uncertainty and instability. They are unlikely to respond positively if they see
    their multimillion-dollar spacecraft threatened as part of a space arms race. It makes eminent sense,
    therefore, to continue diplomatic efforts to promote the non-weaponisation of space and to
    discourage threats against spacecraft.
    69. Finally, the overarching Space Policy which NATO agreed to create at the Brussels Summit
    affirms the commitment of Allies to promote the non-militarisation of space (NATO, 2018). Experts
    are not short of suggestions for the creation of bodies within NATO which would deal explicitly and
    exclusively with space security issues. Clearly it will not be easy to strike a balance between securing
    satellites as essential infrastructure for daily activities on Earth and working to avoid or even to trigger
    a military space race. NATO is well prepared to share expertise and foster consensus-building on
    these matters in ways that will reinforce security in the broadest sense of the term.
    173 ESC 18 E fin
    16
    BIBLIOGRAPHY
    Al-Ekabi, Cenan, “Space Policies, Issues, and Trends in 2016-2017”, European Space Policy
    Institute, September 2017, https://www.espi.or.at/images/Reports/Rep63_online_170928-
    1412.pdf
    Bachman, Justin, “Why Trump Wants a Space Force for the Final Frontier,” Bloomberg, 6 August
    2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-06/what-s-a-space-force-and-can-
    trump-really-start-one-quicktake
    Baiocchi, Dave and William Wel, “The Democratization of Space”, Foreign Affairs, May 2015,
    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/space/2015-04-20/democratization-space
    Baldwin, Harriett, “UK and France strengthen defence cooperation with new weapon system
    agreement”, Ministry of Defence, 28 March 2017, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-
    and-france-strengthen-defence-cooperation-with-new-weapon-system-agreementBall, Philip,
    “The Galileo space row shows the mess of Brexit in microcosm,” The Guardian, 28 May 2018,
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/28/galileo-space-eu-satellite-brexit-
    microcosm
    Barney, Jon and Matthew Breen, “Rising Tide: Game Changing Competition in the Global Aerospace
    & Defense Market”, Avascent, July 2014, http://www.avascent.com/2014/07/rising-tide-game-
    changing-competition-global-aerospace-defense-market/
    Basak, Sonali, “When a Commercial Rocket Blows Up, Who Pays?”, 2 September 2016, Bloomberg,
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-02/when-a-commercial-rocket-blows-up-
    who-pays
    Berger, Eric, “How America’s two greatest rocket companies battled from the beginning”,
    ArsTechnica, 2 August 2017, https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/08/how-americas-two-
    greatest-rocket-companies-battled-from-the-beginning/
    Bing, Chris, “Russians can hijack satellites in order to launch cyberattacks, documents show”,
    CyberScoop, 3 August 2017, https://www.cyberscoop.com/russian-satellite-hacking-turla-
    canada/
    Bray, Nancy, “Space Shuttle and International Space Station”, National Aeronautics and Space
    Administration, 4 August 2017,
    https://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/about/information/shuttle_faq.html#10
    Broad, William J., “Debris Spews Into Space After Satellites Collide”, New York Times, 11 February
    2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/12/science/space/12satellite.html
    Bryce Space and Technology, “2017 State of the Satellite Industry Report”, Satellite Industry
    Association, June 2017, https://www.sia.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/SIA-SSIR-2017.pdf
    Canis, Bill, “Commercial Space Industry Launches a New Phase”, Congressional Research Service,
    12 December 2016, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/space/R44708.pdf
    Carrington, Daisy, “What does a $250,000 ticket to space with Virgin Galactic actually buy you?”,
    CNN, 16 August 2013, https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/virgin-galactic-250000-ticket-to-
    space/index.html
    Chaikin, Andrew, “Is SpaceX Changing the Rocket Equation?”, Air & Space, January 2012,
    https://www.airspacemag.com/space/is-spacex-changing-the-rocket-equation-
    132285884/?all
    Clark, Stuart, “China: the new space superpower”, The Guardian, 28 August 2016,
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/aug/28/china-new-space-superpower-lunar-mars-
    missions
    Clark, Stuart, “Spacewatch: one step on for space tourism as Bezos rocket lands,” The Guardian, 3
    May 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-06/what-s-a-space-force-and-
    can-trump-really-start-one-quicktake
    Clark, Stuart, “Space tourists will have to wait as SpaceX plans bigger rocket,” The Guardian, 8
    February 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/feb/08/spacewatch-tourists-wait-
    spacex-bigger-rocket
    Coats, Daniel R., “Statement for the Record: Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence
    Community”, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 11 May 2017,
    173 ESC 18 E fin
    17
    https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Testimonies/SSCI%20Unclassified%20SFR
    %20-%20Final.pdf
    Cruz, Senator R.E., “The Space Frontier Act of 2017”, The Senate of the United States, 25 July
    2018, https://www.commerce.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/23f40c25-8e23-40ca-9054-
    ea2431c92f52/7707FE8AA5A884E7A3765D7F3C2284BC.s.-3277.pdf
    Currie, John. “Public International Law, 2/E”, Irwin Law, 2008.
    De Selding, Peter, “U.S. ITAR satellite export regime’s effects still strong in Europe”, SpaceNews,
    14 April 2016, http://spacenews.com/u-s-itar-satellite-export-regimes-effects-still-strong-in-
    europe/
    Desjardins, Jeff, “There’s big money to be made in asteroid mining”, Business Insider UK,
    3 November 2016, http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-value-of-asteroid-mining-2016-
    11?r=US&IR=T
    Dillingham, Gerald, “Commercial Space: Industry Developments and FAA Challenges”, Government
    Accountability Office, 22 June 2016, https://www.gao.gov/assets/680/677943.pdf
    Doldirina, Catherine, “Outer space laws and legislation: regulating the province of all mankind”,
    Institution of Engineering and Technology, 22 January 2018,
    https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2018/01/outer-space-laws-and-legislation-regulating-
    the-province-of-all-mankind/
    Dvorsky, George, “California Startup Accused of Launching Unauthorized Satellites Into Orbit:
    Report [Updated]”, Gizmodo, 9 March 2018, https://gizmodo.com/california-startup-accused-
    of-launching-unauthorized-sa-1823657316
    Erwin, Sandra, “Northrop Grumman moves ahead with new ICBM design, impact of Orbital merger
    still unclear”, SpaceNews, 27 February 2018, http://spacenews.com/northrop-grumman-
    moves-ahead-with-new-icbm-design-impact-of-orbital-merger-still-unclear/
    Eurisy, “City of Alban: Managing drinking water supplies”, 2018, https://www.eurisy.org/good-
    practice-city-of-alban-managing-drinking-water-supplies_50
    Euroconsult, “Satellite Value Chain: The Snapshot”, 20 April 2015, http://www.euroconsult-
    ec.com/svc/satellite-value-chain-2014-excerpt.pdf
    European Commission, “Mobile Satellite Services in Europe: Frequently Asked Questions”, 14 May
    2009, http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-09-237_en.htm?locale=en
    European Commission, “Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council
    establishing the space programme of the Union and the European Union Agency for the Space
    Programme and repealing Regulations (EU) No 912/2010, (EU) No 1285/2013, (EU)
    No 377/2014 and Decision 541/2014/EU,” 6 June 2018, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-
    content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM%3A2018%3A447%3AFIN
    European Space Agency, “ESA Budget for 2016”, 2016,
    http://m.esa.int/var/esa/storage/images/esa_multimedia/images/2016/01/esa_budget_2016/1
    5771687-1-eng-GB/ESA_budget_2016_article_mob.jpg
    Evanoff, Kyle, “The Outer Space Treaty’s Midlife Funk,” Council on Foreign Relations, 10 October
    2017, https://www.cfr.org/blog/outer-space-treatys-midlife-funk
    Fecht, Sarah, “The US Senate just passed an important space bill with unanimous approval,” UK
    Business Insider, 12 November 2015, http://uk.businessinsider.com/senate-passes-space-
    act-2015-2015-11?r=US&IR=T
    Federal Aviation Administration, “The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation:
    2017”, January 2017, https://brycetech.com/downloads/FAA_Annual_Compendium_2017.pdf
    Federal Aviation Administration, “The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation:
    2018”, January 2018,
    https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/media/2018_AST_Compendiu
    m.pdf
    Flaherty, Mary Pat, Samenow, Jason, and Rein, Lisa, “Chinese hack U.S. weather systems, satellite
    network”, Washington Post, 12 November 2014,
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/chinese-hack-us-weather-systems-satellite-
    network/2014/11/12/bef1206a-68e9-11e4-b053-
    65cea7903f2e_story.html?utm_term=.186f9653e25b
    173 ESC 18 E fin
    18
    Foust, Jeff, “U.S. Dismisses Space Weapons Treaty Proposal as “Fundamentally
    Flawed,”SpaceNews, 11 September 2014, https://spacenews.com/41842us-dismisses-space-
    weapons-treaty-proposal-as-fundamentally-flawed/
    Foust, Jeff, “Virgin Galactic Opens LauncherOne Facility in Long Beach”, SpaceNews, 12 February
    2015, http://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-opens-launcherone-facility-in-long-beach/
    Foust, Jeff, “Is it time to update the Outer Space Treaty?” Space Review, 5 June 2017,
    http://www.thespacereview.com/article/3256/1
    Garcia, Mark, “Space Debris and Human Spacecraft”, National Aeronautics and Space
    Administration, 27 September 2013,
    https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/news/orbital_debris.html
    Government Accountability Office, “NASA Commercial Crew Program”, 16 February 2017,
    https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-17-137
    Griffin, Andrew, “Astronomers enraged by huge man-made star that has ‘vandalised’ the sky”, The
    Independent, 26 January 2018, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/man-made-star-
    new-zealand-night-sky-humanity-space-bright-rocket-lab-a8180061.html
    Grush, Loren, “NASA is saving big bucks by partnering with commercial companies like SpaceX”,
    The Verge, 10 November 2017, https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/10/16623752/nasa-
    commercial-cargo-crew-spacex-orbital-atk-boeing-orion
    Gruss, Mike, “U.S. Air Force evaluating early end for ULA’s $800 million in yearly support”,
    SpaceNews, 27 January 2016, http://spacenews.com/u-s-air-force-looks-at-ending-ulas-
    launch-capability-payment/
    Hampson, Joshua, “The Future of Space Commercialization”, US House Committee on Science,
    Space, and Technology, 25 January 2017,
    https://science.house.gov/sites/republicans.science.house.gov/files/documents/TheFutureofS
    paceCommercializationFinal.pdf
    Hauser, Marty and Walter-Range, Micag, “ITAR and the U.S. Space Industry”, Space Foundation,
    September 2008, https://www.spacefoundation.org/sites/default/files/white-
    papers/SpaceFoundation_ITAR_0.pdf
    Hern, Alex, “Forget the car in space: why Elon Musk's reusable rockets are more than a publicity
    stunt”, The Guardian, 7 February 2018,
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/shortcuts/2018/feb/07/forget-the-car-in-space-why-
    elon-musks-reusable-rockets-are-more-than-a-publicity-stunt
    Hughes, Tim, “Statement of Tim Hughes Senior Vice President For Global Business & Government
    Affairs Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)”, US Committee on Commerce,
    Science, and Technology, 13 July 2017,
    https://www.commerce.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/8a62dd3f-ead6-42ff-8ac8-
    0823a346b926/7F1C5970AE952E354D32C19DDC9DDCCB.mr.-tim-hughes-testimony.pdf
    Javid, Sajid and Oliver Letwin, “National Space Policy”, Government of the United Kingdom,
    December 2015,
    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/484865/NSP_-
    _Final.pdf
    Jones, Andrew, “China’s Long March 5 heavy-lift rocket to fly again around November in crucial test”,
    SpaceNews, 14 March 2018, http://spacenews.com/chinas-long-march-5-heavy-lift-rocket-to-
    fly-again-around-november-in-crucial-test/
    Keck Institute for Space Studies, “Asteroid Retrieval Feasibility Study”, 2 April 2012,
    http://kiss.caltech.edu/final_reports/Asteroid_final_report.pdf
    Kim, Gene and Jessica Orwig, “Here’s a first look at Jeff Bezos’ monster rocket factory”, Business
    Insider UK, 14 August 2017, http://uk.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-space-company-blue-
    origin-new-rocket-factory-florida-2017-8?r=US&IR=T
    Klotz, Irene, “Small satellites driving space industry growth: report”, Reuters, 11 July 2017,
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-satellites/small-satellites-driving-space-industry-
    growth-report-idUSKBN19W2LR
    Kluger, Jeffrey, “10 Things to Know About SpaceX”, Time, 2018,
    http://time.com/space-x-ten-things-to-know/
    173 ESC 18 E fin
    19
    Koebler, Jason, “Willed SpaceX Into Making the Cheapest Rockets Ever Created”, Vice
    Motherboard, 12 May 2015, https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/kbz5jv/how-elon-
    musk-willed-spacex-into-making-the-cheapest-rockets-ever-created
    Komissarov, Valery, “How will the Earth-observation market evolve with the rise of AI”, Space News,
    7 February 2018, https://spacenews.com/op-ed-how-will-the-earth-observation-market-
    evolve-with-the-rise-of-ai/
    Kuo, Lily, “Tiangong-1 crash: Chinese space station comes down in Pacific Ocean.” 2 April 2018,
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/02/tiangong-1-crash-china-space-station
    Livingstone, David and Patricia Lewis, “Space, the Final Frontier for Cybersecurity?”, Chatham
    House, September 2016,
    https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/publications/research/2016-09-22-
    space-final-frontier-cybersecurity-livingstone-lewis.pdf
    Marshall, Tyrone C. Jr. “Officials: Space no Longer a Sanctuary; Sequester a Threat”, Department
    of Defense, 26 March 2015, https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/604366/
    NATO, “NATO’s Joint Air Power Strategy,” 26 June 2018,
    https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2018_06/20180626_20180626-joint-
    air-power-strategy.pdf
    NATO PA, “ The Space Domain and Allied Defence”, presented by Madeleine Moon, [162 DSCFC
    17 E rev.1], 8 October 2017,
    https://www.nato-pa.int/document/2017-space-domain-and-allied-defence-moon-report-162-
    dscfc-17-e-rev1-fin
    NATO PA ESCTER visit to Paris and Toulouse, October 2018, https://www.nato-
    pa.int/news/parliamentarians-look-commercial-and-strategic-implications-new-space
    Office of the Secretary of Defense, United States of America, “Annual Report to Congress: Military
    and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2017”, 15 May 2017,
    https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PD
    F?ver=2017-06-06-141328-770
    Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, “Space and Innovation”, 2016,
    http://www.oecd.org/futures/space-and-innovation-9789264264014-en.htm
    Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, “The Space Economy at a Glance 2014”,
    OECD iLibrary, 23 October 2014, http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/the-space-economy-
    at-a-glance-2014_9789264217294-en;jsessionid=7df9497ffpkpr.x-oecd-live-02
    Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, “Working Party on Telecommunication
    and Information Services Policies”, 2004, https://www.oecd.org/sti/ieconomy/34695448.pdf
    Panda, Ankit, “Why North Korea Is Likely Planning a Satellite Launch in 2018”, The Diplomat,
    12 January 2018, https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/why-north-korea-is-likely-planning-a-
    satellite-launch-in-2018/
    Pappalardo, Joe, “8 Countries Angling to Dominate the Launch Business”, Popular Mechanics,
    18 March 2013, https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/rockets/a8821/8-countries-
    angling-to-dominate-the-launch-business-15222860/
    Pauli, Darren, “Hackers gain ‘full control’ of critical SCADA systems”, IT News, 10 January 2014,
    https://www.itnews.com.au/news/hackers-gain-full-control-of-critical-scada-systems-369200
    Pellegrino, Massimo and Stang, Gerald, “Space security for Europe”, Institute for Security Studies,
    July 2016, https://www.iss.europa.eu/sites/default/files/EUISSFiles/Report_29_0.pdf
    Roulette, Joey, “SpaceX rocket launches Luxembourg satellite for NATO,” Reuters, 31 January
    2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-spacex-launch/spacex-rocket-launches-
    luxembourg-satellite-for-nato-idUSKBN1FK375
    Routh, Adam, “Why America’s Space Launch Must be Competitive”, National Interest, 13 January
    2017, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-americas-space-launch-must-be-
    competitive-19052
    Sabbagh, Karim Michel, “New Frontiers of Opportunities: Evolution of Space Ecosystem”, SES,
    16 November 2017, https://www.ses.com/sites/default/files/2017-
    11/New%20frontiers%20of%20opportunities-%20Presentation.pdf
    Schnee, Jerome, “The Economic Impacts of the U.S. Space Program”, Rutgers University, 2000,
    https://er.jsc.nasa.gov/seh/economics.html
    173 ESC 18 E fin
    20
    Scoles, Sarah, “Maybe Nobody Wants Your Space Internet”, Wired, 15 March 2018,
    https://www.wired.com/story/maybe-nobody-wants-your-space-internet/
    Scorbureanu, Alexandrina and Arne Holzhausen, “Working Paper: The Composite Index of
    Propensity to Risk”, Allainz, 12 April 2011,
    https://www.allianz.com/v_1339498684000/media/current/en/economic_research/images_en
    glisch/pdf_downloads/working_papers/cipre.pdf
    Seemangal, Robin, “SpaceX Keeps Lining Up Covert Military Launches”, Wired, 24 October 2017,
    https://www.wired.com/story/spacex-keeps-lining-up-covert-military-launches/
    Space Foundation, “The Space Report 2016”, Space Foundation, 1 July 2017,
    https://web.archive.org/web/20170205105025/https://www.spacefoundation.org/sites/default/f
    iles/downloads/The_Space_Report_2016_OVERVIEW.pdf
    SpaceX, Updates: Launch Manifest, 5 September 2018, https://www.spacex.com/missions
    SpaceX, “Production at SpaceX”, 24 September 2013,
    http://www.spacex.com/news/2013/09/24/production-spacex
    SpaceX, “SpaceX To Send Privately Crewed Dragon Spacecraft Beyond The Moon Next Year”,
    27 February 2017, http://www.spacex.com/news/2017/02/27/spacex-send-privately-crewed-
    dragon-spacecraft-beyond-moon-next-year
    St. Fleur, Nicholas, “Jeff Bezos Says he Is Selling $1 Billion a Year in Amazon Stock to Finance
    Race to Space”, New York Times, 5 April 2017,
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/05/science/blue-origin-rocket-jeff-bezos-amazon-
    stock.html?_r=1
    Szondy, David, “NASA straps a new space debris sensor onto the ISS”, New Atlas, 4 January 2018,
    https://newatlas.com/nasa-space-debris-sensor/52805/
    The Economist, “Nanosats are go!” 7 June 2014, https://www.economist.com/news/technology-
    quarterly/21603240-small-satellites-taking-advantage-smartphones-and-other-consumer-
    technologies
    The Economist, “The Falcon Heavy’s successful flight is another vindication for Elon Musk”,
    6 February 2018, https://www.economist.com/news/21736429-and-another-headache-
    spacexs-competitors-falcon-heavys-successful-flight
    Tilley, Aaron, “Seat Of Power: Tesla And SpaceX Investor Steve Jurvetson”, Forbes, 23 March 2016,
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/aarontilley/2016/03/23/seat-of-power-tesla-and-spacex-
    investor-steve-jurvetson/#3b98253d2291
    Tombarge, Colonel Paul A., “NATO SPACE OPERATIONS: The Case for a New NATO Center of
    Excellence,” The George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, December 2014,
    http://www.marshallcenter.org/MCPUBLICWEB/en/170-cat-english-en/cat-publications-
    en/cat-pubs-occ-papers-en/1587-art-pubs-occ-paper-26-en.html
    UN General Assembly, “Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration
    and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies”, United Nations Office
    for Outer Space Affairs, 19 December 1966,
    http://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/outerspacetreaty.html
    United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOUS), “International Space Law: United Nations
    Instruments,” May 2017,
    http://www.unoosa.org/res/oosadoc/data/documents/2017/stspace/stspace61rev_2_0_html/V
    1605998-ENGLISH.pdf
    United Nations Treaty Series, “No. 13810: Multilateral Convention on the international liability for
    damage caused by space objects. Opened for signature at London, Moscow and Washington
    on 29 March 1972,” 1975,
    https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%20961/volume-961-I-13810-
    English.pdf
    Wakimoto, Takuya, “How to reduce US space expenses through competitive and cooperative
    approaches”, The Space Review, 22 January 2018,
    http://www.thespacereview.com/article/3412/1
    Wattles, Jackie, “Blue Origin CEO: We're taking tourists to space within 18 months”, CNN, 5 October
    2017, http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/05/technology/future/blue-origin-launch-human-space-
    tourism/index.html
    173 ESC 18 E fin
    21
    Wattles, Jackie, “SpaceX to launch demo satellites for high-speed internet project”, CNN,
    18 February 2018, http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/18/technology/future/spacex-launch-paz-
    demo-starlink/index.html
    Wee, Sui-Lee, Ken Wills, and Nishikawa, Yoko, “China denies it is behind hacking of U.S. satellites”,
    Reuters, 31 October 2011, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-us-hacking/china-denies-
    it-is-behind-hacking-of-u-s-satellites-idUSTRE79U1YI20111031
    Werner, Debra, “SpaceX Leaves Searing Impression on NASA Heat Shield Guy”, SpaceNews,
    9 March 2015, http://spacenews.com/spacexs-high-velocity-decision-making-left-searing-
    impression-on-nasa-heat-shield-guy/
    Whealan-George, Kelly, “The Projected U.S. Economic Impacts of the Space Industry 2030”, Embry-
    Riddle Aeronautical University, October 2013,
    https://commons.erau.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://www.google.be/&httpsredir=1&
    article=1000&context=ww-economics-social-sciences
    White House, “A National Security Strategy for a New Century”, December 1999,
    https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=487539
    White House, “Vice President Pence Announces National Space Council Users Advisory Group”,
    20 February 2018, https://www.wvitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/vice-president-pence-
    announces-national-space-council-users-advisory-group/
    Wright, Robert, “Satellite pinpoints US’s Russian space dependence”, Financial Times, 16 May
    2014, https://www.ft.com/content/d0eadfdc-dbbc-11e3-a460-00144feabdc0
    Zapata, Edgar, “An Assessment of Cost Improvements in the NASA COTS/CRS Program and
    Implications for Future NASA Missions”, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics,
    2017, https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20170008895.pdf
    Zelnio, Ryan, “A short history of export control policy”, The Space Review, 9 January 2006,
    http://www.thespacereview.com/article/528/1
    ______________________
    ECONOMICS AND SECURITY
    COMMITTEE (ESC)
    Sub-Committee on Transatlantic
    Economic Relations (ESCTER)
    THE INTERNATIONAL
    TRADING SYSTEM AT
    RISK AND THE NEED TO
    RETURN TO
    FIRST PRINCIPLES
    Report
    by Faik OZTRAK (Turkey)
    Rapporteur
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin | Original: English | 17 November 2018
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    I. INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................................1
    II. COMMON MISPERCEPTIONS OF TRADE............................................................3
    III. TRADE IN PUBLIC OPINION..................................................................................5
    IV. PROACTIVE LONG-TERM STRATEGIES FOR COPING WITH THE GLOBAL
    ECONOMY: THE EDUCATION DIMENSION .........................................................8
    V. IS A WESTERN RETREAT FROM GLOBALISATION AND THE
    MULTILATERAL TRADING SYSTEM POSSIBLE? ................................................9
    VI. TRADE AND SECURITY.......................................................................................15
    VII. RECOMMENDATIONS .........................................................................................17
    BIBLIOGRAPHY....................................................................................................21
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    1
    I. INTRODUCTION
    1. This Sub-Committee on Transatlantic Economic Relations (ESCTER) was created soon after
    the fall of the Berlin Wall to ensure that international and transatlantic trade issues would remain a
    central plank of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s (NATO PA) agenda. The thinking then was that
    the liberal trading system established after World War II had not only contributed to an
    unprecedented rise of prosperity on both sides of the Atlantic, pulled millions out of poverty, and
    encouraged the diffusion of technology and ideas, it had also reinforced the security order. In fact,
    security, democracy and free trade proved mutually reinforcing. Indeed, an enduring Soviet threat
    encouraged allied nations to contain potential trade disputes and to move steadily in the direction of
    trade liberalisation. Those who built the Bretton Woods system knew full well that during the 1930s
    an array of “beggar thy neighbour” protectionist measures had contributed to the Great Depression,
    poisoned inter-state relations and had doubtless been a central factor in the descent into World War
    II. Their instinct to reject those policies proved prescient and highly beneficial.
    2. The concern after the end of the Cold War, expressed clearly by members of the US delegation
    to the NATO PA, was that in the absence of an abiding Soviet threat, Allied countries might be less
    focused on containing narrow trade grievances. The political will to defend a trade order that had
    fostered so much prosperity would accordingly weaken. That concern, which has long animated this
    Sub-Committee, seems to have been entirely justified. Today, the global economy is threatened on
    many fronts. The campaign for trade liberalisation has suffered myriad setbacks, and the situation
    could worsen. Job-creating trade is now seen by many voters and politicians as job-killing rather
    than job-creating. No global agreement on trade liberalisation has been signed since 1995. The
    United States has pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks it was leading, the
    United Kingdom will soon leave the European Union and its future financial and trading arrangement
    with that bloc is uncertain, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the
    United States and the EU is in remission and the recent G7 Summit meeting ended in unprecedented
    transatlantic acrimony over US tariffs on steel and aluminium and the promise of retaliation on the
    part of America’s trading partners.
    3. In 2016, 571 of the 771 trade interventions tracked by Global Trade Alert were characterised
    as discriminatory and only 200 as liberalising. The trend continued in 2017 with an increase of 26%
    in US trade actions against its G20 partners (World Economic Forum, 2018). Perhaps not
    coincidentally, the World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts that the volume of world trade will
    grow by only 2.8% in 2018, the fifth consecutive year that it has increased by less than 3%. Rising
    trade tensions are also undermining long-term cross-border investment by companies worldwide.
    Foreign direct investment globally fell by 23% in 2017 according to the UN’s latest World Investment
    Report. US-China and US-EU trade tensions appear to be driving this decline (Donnan, June 2018).
    Meanwhile a 2016 YouGov/Economist poll found that less than half of US, British and French citizens
    see globalisation as a “force for good” (Hu and Spence, 2017). This sentiment is also reflected in the
    growing appeal of populist and ultra-nationalist movements and parties that are challenging other
    fundamental liberal democratic norms.
    4. Indeed, the very notion of a global economy today is under attack. Trade, immigration, and the
    movement of capital across borders have all been subject to populist backlashes (Hu and Spence,
    2017). Some Western governments have begun to temper their support for trade liberalisation and
    seem ever more circumspect about the promise of globalisation. The Trump Administration has
    openly expressed its scepticism of the benefits of free trade and the logic of multilateral trading
    arrangements, and there is concern that without the leadership of the world’s strongest democracy,
    the international trading system will turn to protectionism and managed trade. Most analysts believe
    that for a liberal free trade order to flourish, it is essential to have a free-trading “hegemon” to lead
    it. Fortunately, many in the US Congress support this perspective on US leadership.
    5. It is unlikely that either Europe or China is prepared to act as the chief promoter of a global
    free-trading order should the United States retreat from this historic role. China retains a strong
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    2
    mercantilist impulse, although it has rhetorically pushed for the preservation of an open global
    system. It fails to respect some of the key norms that would be required of a free trade hegemon
    including intellectual property protection and equal treatment for foreign companies. Its financial
    system remains underdeveloped and vulnerable to shock. Mounting protectionist sentiment is also
    evident in some EU countries. This has been fuelled by economic stagnation in some regions,
    exchange rate and fiscal adjustment inadequacies, the migrant crisis and the growing power of
    nativist politics. Moreover, one of Europe’s strongest free trade advocates, the United Kingdom, is
    set to leave the Union, and its traditional free trade views will no longer be part of the internal
    EU discussion on trade matters.
    6. The international institutions created to help govern the international economic system are also
    in crisis. Organisations like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and the WTO
    have had difficulties adjusting to the growing economic clout of developing countries. These
    important institutions have become the target of political forces that find it convenient to blame them
    for various economic challenges rather than empowering them to act as effective shock absorbers
    and rule makers within the international economic space (Hu and Spence, 2017).
    7. Of course, it would be misleading to argue that trade and globalisation have not had disruptive
    effects despite their central contributions to prosperity. There is little question, for example, that trade
    has been one of several factors responsible for the losses experienced by older manufacturing
    sectors in developed countries, even if technological developments are a far more powerful driver of
    these losses. One US study suggests that while trade may account for as much as 13% of all
    manufacturing job losses in the United States, the rest is linked to productivity gains resulting from
    automation (Miller, 2016). Manufacturing output has increased in many OECD countries, while the
    number of factory jobs has shrunk due to technology-driven productivity increases. Technology, of
    course, creates new jobs in other sectors, but older displaced workers can confront difficulties
    changing careers, particularly if there are inadequate social and educational support systems to
    facilitate the transition.
    8. Still, this is cold comfort for the millions in the West who have lost jobs and who believe that
    trade may be a factor in their declining fortunes. Between 2000 and 2016 the United States shed
    close to 7 million manufacturing jobs, many operating in the tradeable goods sector. The most
    dynamic job-creating sectors in that same period have been the non-tradable sectors, which
    generated 25 million jobs, many in the category of lowly paid medium- and low-skilled workers.
    Wages and benefits in this period stagnated, while inequality rose dramatically in some countries
    and continues to do so even as the global economy recovers (Hu and Spence, 2017). Across the
    OECD area, the average income for the wealthiest 10% of the population is now more than nine
    times that of the poorest 10%, up from seven times 25 years ago (OECD, 2017). In some countries,
    less progressive tax policies will exacerbate the equity problem induced by technology change,
    although this phenomenon is often misleadingly attributed to the trading system.
    9. Wealth is also concentrating geographically, with one in four OECD citizens living in regions
    that are increasingly left behind in terms of productivity growth and income and where opportunities
    to move into more productive sectors are very limited. Such problems can mount over time. Regions
    with easy access to digital services tend to be better off economically and are better able to move
    up the production ladder. Regions without that access move downward. But over the long term, the
    digital economy might ultimately lead to more job losses across a wider spectrum of professions.
    Not surprisingly, the global financial crisis that began in 2008 accelerated a number of these trends.
    This triggered a backlash not only against trade, but also against other manifestations of
    globalisation including immigration, alliances, trans-border financial flows, international economic
    cooperation and the rules and institutions needed to administer the global economic order.
    10. There are certainly legitimate arguments for developing countries to take a cautious approach
    to trade liberalisation, although embracing it as a goal and moving in a liberalising direction invariably
    benefits emerging countries. That said, trade liberalisation can produce adjustment costs for
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    3
    developing countries such as the loss of reliable revenue for the state (from tariff collection), labour
    shocks made worse by poor social protection for those who lose work as a result of trade, and
    inadequate financing for restructuring economies suddenly exposed to international competition.
    Coping with these challenges requires subtle, sequential and well-planned approaches to trade
    liberalisation (Stiglitz and Charlton, 2005).
    II. COMMON MISPERCEPTIONS OF TRADE
    11. Public misperceptions about the international trading system allow those opposed to open
    trade to blame it for a range of ills besetting national economies. Among these misunderstandings
    is the notion that some countries invariably win and others lose from trade. This zero-sum game
    vision of trade is inherently mistaken and runs against all evidence regarding the shared benefits of
    trade. It is also often stated that trade deficits are, in themselves, a bad thing, and that they are
    primarily the product of “unfair” trade policies carried out by other countries. Another often-heard
    argument is that workers are better served by protectionist regimes rather than by the open liberal
    trading order. Finally, there is the traditionally mercantilist national security argument that rendering
    a country dependent on the international trading system somehow reduces its capacity to act
    autonomously to defend its core security interests.
    12. None of these charges hold up to scrutiny. David Ricardo was the first economist to
    demonstrate systematically that trade in aggregate is generally a win-win proposition. His simple but
    highly insightful models suggested that trade allows countries to specialise in the production of those
    things that they produce the most efficiently while importing those products that they make the least
    efficiently. Although trade would prove a boon to the trading countries’ most efficient trading sectors
    and a bust to the less competitive sectors, each country would unambiguously be better off by
    specialising in those industries to which it is best suited, importing those items which it makes least
    efficiently and reallocating capital and labour accordingly. Economic modelling has since become far
    more complex, but David Ricardo’s fundamental insights remain largely valid. It is hardly surprising
    that trade has been such a compelling driver of economic growth in countries like India that came
    around to the view that lowering tariffs could be helpful.
    13. Countries that engage in the trading system are able to consume more at a lower cost than
    they would if they were to operate in autarchy. Trade expands markets for domestically produced
    goods, thereby increasing rewards to both the owners of those exporting firms and their workers.
    But these are only the most visible impacts. There are also dynamic and often hidden impacts linked
    to trade. Participating in a liberal trading order generally lowers the cost of inputs of domestically
    produced goods that can then be exported. In an increasingly integrated world economy tied together
    by vital global value chains, three quarters of trade today consist of firms purchasing inputs, capital
    goods or services that contribute to their production. In effect, many leading export firms are also
    significant importers and gain enormous competitive advantage by sourcing internationally (OECD,
    2018).
    14. Trade also has powerful impacts on productivity as it unleashes competition which helps to
    advance organisation, information, knowledge, technology and efficiency among competing firms.
    Firms operating in more autarchic settings are far less likely to be innovative simply because they
    face less competition, are less exposed to the winds of change, and enjoy access to fixed, albeit
    undynamic, markets. Firms seeking market expansion are inclined to see trade as potentially
    beneficial. Consumers are naturally attracted to a diverse choice of high-quality low-cost goods and
    should understand that the competition of imports drives down prices and raises quality. When
    foreign competitors enjoy price and quality advantages, this can compel domestic firms to raise their
    own level of productivity as a competitive response. This dynamic accords advantages to the firm
    both in domestic and international markets, while also benefitting consumers. Enhanced productivity
    will make that firm more competitive internationally and help increase sales in local and international
    markets. It is not simply the importation of goods that triggers price/quality improvements. The
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    4
    presence of competitively-priced foreign goods in a particular market can be a significant impetus
    for local producers to become more efficient. Protectionism has just the opposite impact. It lowers
    the impetus for domestic firms to raise their productivity thereby making protected companies ever
    less capable of selling in global markets. Consumers are stuck with higher bills, and over time, job
    losses mount.
    15. Not surprisingly, therefore, open economies tend to grow more quickly than closed economies.
    Salaries and working conditions are generally higher in companies that trade freely, and there are
    also correlations between economic openness and productivity growth. Regions undergoing
    productivity increases tend to have forged important links to the world economy. But perhaps the
    simplest demonstration that trade is economically beneficial is that countries, and by extension, their
    firms and consumers, willingly participate in it as they see commercial opportunities that would not
    exist in strictly autarchic settings. Trade is thus the ultimate expression of commercial freedom. The
    OECD recently conducted a study in which China, Europe and the United States each imposed a
    hypothetical 10% tariff on all traded goods. The result was a 1.4% decline in global GDP and a 6%
    fall in global trade. Importantly, the countries that imposed the trade barrier in the model suffered the
    worst impacts.
    16. It is also grossly misleading to suggest that trade deficits or surpluses are the product of unfair
    trade practices. Trade balances are essentially determined by national savings rates. A large trade
    deficit simply suggests that either public or private savings (or both) are negative. This is a hard and
    fast accounting identity. Domestic savings rates correlate with current account balances which
    include the trade balance. The United States, for example, has long been a low-saving (high public
    deficits) high-consuming country, and this is reflected in the negative current account balances it has
    run since 1981 (Irwin, 2016). It has effectively opted to consume more than it invests, and this
    decision is partly reflected in low taxes relative to public spending, significant foreign borrowing to
    underwrite the resulting shortfall, and large trade deficits. Reducing the trade deficit would therefore
    ultimately require the United States to increase savings by consuming and borrowing less, for
    example by raising taxes and lowering government spending. This might entail slashing substantial
    public budget deficits, raising private and public savings, cutting the sale of Treasury Bills to foreign
    Central Banks (those of China and Japan for example) and/or significantly raising interest rates.
    17. According to the US Commerce Department, the US trade deficit grew 12.1% or
    USD 61.2 billion in 2017, reaching USD 566 billion—a nine year high. The 2018 tax and budget bills
    are likely to drive this number upward. Deficits are slated to reach USD 1 trillion by 2020, according
    to the Congressional Budget Office, and US public debt will reach USD 20 trillion by 2020 (Wasson
    and McGregor, 2018). The US economy has been growing at a healthy clip and this has been
    expressed, in part, through significant consumer and firm demand for imports. All of these factors
    will drive trade deficits upwards. Indeed, the United States is slated to enter a period of high
    dissavings that will invariably be reflected in a significant influx of foreign goods and increased
    foreign borrowing (Tully, 2018). Bilateral trade arrangements and new tariff regimes cannot impede
    the onset of this fundamental accounting identity. Protectionist measures could actually have the
    effect of worsening the trade deficit by raising domestic prices and making exporters even less
    competitive or more inclined towards offshore production. In any case, significant tax cuts without
    significant public spending cuts will be reflected in a rising inflow of goods and services. The trade
    deficit could rise by an additional 5-6% in 2018 as a result.
    18. Some might find it ironic that growth in the United States seems correlated to increases in the
    trade deficit. Although the US current deficit fell from 5.8% of GDP to 2.7% in 2009, millions of jobs
    were lost in that same period. In the same way, Japan has run current account surpluses for
    30 years, but its economy grew very slowly over that entire period. Since 2009, the United States
    has embarked on a slow but steady economic recovery and the current account deficit has remained
    at a sustainable 3% of GDP in this period. Thus, the notion that the country has been flooded with
    imports over the last decade does not hold up to scrutiny. The trade deficit will now increase as the
    savings rate falls.
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    5
    19. Some developing countries undergoing rapid growth often run deficits as they need to import
    substantial capital equipment in order to sustain economic take-off. This is hardly a sign of an
    unhealthy trade position. A direct correlation between trade surpluses and overall economic health
    is more fiction than reality. Whether or not surpluses or deficits are a good thing depends very much
    on particular conditions prevailing in a given country. Perhaps the most important question is whether
    a current account deficit is sustainable over the long term and whether it reflects an inherently healthy
    economy that is increasingly productive or one that is suffering structural difficulties.
    20. The United States derives unique benefits from the fact that the dollar remains the world’s
    reserve currency of choice. This reduces the burden of internal adjustment because central banks
    and other economic actors will willingly hold dollars, even though the United States runs persistent
    current account deficits at levels that would be worryingly unsustainable for other countries. For a
    less powerful country, running sustained current account deficits would trigger a massive flight out
    of the national currency. The central place of the dollar in the international monetary order, however,
    accords the United States far more leverage and flexibility than other countries running long-term
    budget and trade deficits.
    21. It is noteworthy that Germany, Europe’s most dynamic economy, has a significantly different
    macroeconomic and trading profile than the United States. It is a high-savings economy with a very
    competitive export sector. In 2017, its exports rose 6.3% to EUR 1.28 trillion while imports rose 8.3%
    to EUR 1.03 trillion. This drove its trade surplus down to EUR 244.9 billion, from a record
    EUR 248.9 billion surplus in 2016 (Samson, 2018). Because the euro tends to align with Germany’s
    natural exchange rate, the country enjoys a certain exporting advantage over some of its EU trading
    partners that no longer have devaluation in their toolbox or are less productive than Germany but
    nonetheless share the same currency. This implicit exchange rate misalignment has been a factor
    in the rising backlash against free trade in parts of Europe, and the Trump Administration has also
    cited this in its criticism of Germany’s export position.
    III. TRADE IN PUBLIC OPINION
    22. A quick survey of the contemporary press would give an impression that the public harbours
    deep suspicion of trade and little or no appreciation for the benefits that it confers. But public opinion
    surveys belie this perception. Although US support for trade declined rather precipitously during the
    2016 presidential campaign, perhaps as a result of the rhetoric employed by some candidates in
    both parties, US public support for open trading relations has begun to rebound. A
    Pew Research Center poll taken in April 2017 found that 52% of US citizens believe that free trade
    agreements between the United States and other countries are a good thing, while 40% see them
    as bad. Support for trade had troughed in October 2016, when only 45% of the public expressed a
    positive view of trade. By April 2017, 44% of surveyed US citizens said that trade had definitely or
    probably helped their financial situation, while 38% said that trade had definitely or probably hurt
    their situation. These numbers differ only slightly from polling in 2015, and the pro-trade outlook is
    substantially higher than in 2010 when, in the midst of the global recession, 26% of those polled said
    that trade agreements had helped their finances, while 46% said they had had a negative impact
    (Jones, 2017).
    23. Perhaps more worrying is the degree to which trade has become a partisan issue in US politics.
    The positions of party voters have swung wildly over the past decade. In October 2016, 29% of
    Republicans and Republican-leaning independents claimed that trade was good for the
    United States. A year and a half before that poll, the figure stood at 56%. By April 2017, Republican
    support for trade had slightly rebounded to 36%. Democrats, by contrast, have now adopted a far
    more generous view of trade and have moved away from more protectionist sentiments. In April
    2017, 67% of Democrats and Democrat-leaners claimed that free trade agreements have been good
    for the United States, up from 59% in October 2016. During the Bush Administration, however,
    Republicans were significantly more supportive of trade than Democrats. In 2006, for example, 44%
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    6
    of Republicans saw trade as beneficial to their financial situation, while only 31% of Democrats did
    (Jones, 2017). All of this suggests that support for trade in the United States can be highly volatile
    and that political, labour and media leadership matters a great deal on these issues.
    24. Large majorities of Democrats now support the North American Free Trade Agreement
    (NAFTA) while a significant majority of Republicans say that this trilateral trade agreement has been
    bad for the United States. This is the sharpest area of trade discord among the US public (Kull,
    2017). Indeed, 51% of US citizens polled in May 2016 saw NAFTA as favourable to US interests,
    compared to 74% of Canadians and 60% of Mexicans. It is important to note here that in 2016 the
    United States ran a USD 74 billion trade deficit with the other two NAFTA signatories, and this has
    been a source of particular US public disquiet (Stokes, 2017). What is often not reported is the fact
    that these trade flows involve US companies moving components across borders, often multiple
    times, as part of the manufacturing process.
    25. A University of Maryland poll released in October 2017 found that large majorities approve of
    the United States reciprocally removing trade barriers with other countries and a majority of
    US citizens favour allowing trade to grow and lowering trade barriers. Large majorities also support
    trade adjustment assistance programmes for workers who lose their jobs as a result of trade. They
    also want labour standards included in trade deals. A generational gap is apparent with 67% of
    US citizens under 30 and 58% of those between 30 and 49 seeing trade as good for the country.
    Only 41% of those over 50, however, hold a positive view of trade. Older people, of course, confront
    more barriers to retraining and are often not well positioned to make career changes to adjust to
    rapidly shifting market conditions. Education is another divider with 61% of those with a postgraduate
    degree viewing trade positively, while opinion is more evenly divided among those without a
    university degree. This is not surprising as less educated people have suffered more economic
    setbacks in recent years.
    26. European public opinion on trade matters is also complex and sometimes contradictory.
    A 2015 YouGov poll revealed that, as in the United States, Europeans harboured concerns and
    doubts about trade. Although the governments of both Germany and France favoured the TTIP,
    43% of the German public felt that further liberalisation of trade with the United States would be bad
    for their country while 26% believed it would be positive. Despite the pro-TTIP stance of the French
    government, the French also opposed the idea of that agreement by 30% to 24%. By contrast, a
    strong majority of US citizens (68%) had no opinion on the TTIP – and those who did were divided.
    Regarding the specific benefits or downsides of free trade agreements in general, the French and
    the Germans were divided in 2015, if not slightly negative. The British were more supportive of free
    trade, with 50% believing that policies leading to lower tariffs and common standards at home and
    abroad would help rather than hurt British businesses. Moreover, 44% of the British public were also
    generally positive about the number of British jobs resulting from increased trade. Those living in
    Sweden, Denmark and Finland shared this kind of optimism (YouGov, 2015).
    27. The sharpest critics of trade on both sides of the Atlantic are those who have a sense that the
    international trading order has not served their personal interests. Such views are particularly salient
    among sectors where jobs are in sharp decline either because of technological evolution or market
    changes or because of trade patterns which have made those jobs redundant. In these sectors, the
    narrative that trade has led to a degradation of living standards and lower growth is most commonly
    accepted and reiterated. This has created an opening for anti-trade politics. Although technological
    change rather than trade is actually the leading driver of job loss, it is politically easier to blame
    trading partners for domestic economic difficulties. Slowing the evolution of technology, by contrast,
    is not an end with easy political fixes. Tariffs and the erection of non-tariff barriers, however, are part
    of most states’ conventional policy arsenal.
    28. Trade theory does provide one explanation for the dissatisfaction of certain groups with the
    current trading order. In a very important paper published in 1941, Wolfgang Stolper and
    Paul Samuelson noted that when a country that is relatively better-endowed with capital trades with
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    7
    a country that is relatively well-endowed with labour, both countries will benefit. But the owners of
    capital in the country more endowed with capital will be disproportionally rewarded and the return to
    labour in that country will be relatively less. In the labour-intensive country, the opposite will hold,
    and labour will be disproportionately rewarded. Although the model seeks to simplify a highly
    complex set of phenomena, there is some evidence that this “Stolper-Samuelson” effect has been
    operational in the world economy. In labour-rich China, for example, wages have soared, particularly
    in the industrialised coastal regions, as China has opened its economy to global trade. It is often said
    that never before in human history have more people been raised out of poverty more quickly than
    in China over the past 25 years. In the capital-intensive West, educated workers along with the
    owners of capital have clearly benefitted from trade. Education is indeed a form of capital so the
    rewards from trade in the West have generally also accrued to those most endowed with capital in
    some form including those who are highly educated. Well-trained factory workers in advanced
    technology industries as well as those with a university degree can be included in the category of
    beneficiaries.
    29. With this in mind, we can see how the rise of China has proven a boon to Western economies
    even though the benefits have not been evenly shared. Many Western firms have benefitted from
    access to vast Chinese markets. Western firms that manufacture in China have tapped into a
    productive Chinese labour market and Western consumers have seen prices fall. China’s relatively
    low wage structure, infrastructure endowments and organisational sophistication have helped drive
    down production costs globally. This has not benefitted all Western workers, particularly those
    directly competing against Chinese labour. Moreover, as many displaced Western workers are
    located in regions with a heavy concentration of older industries including textiles, clothing, steel and
    furniture, entire regions, like parts of the American Midwest or older industrial regions in Europe,
    have suffered as a result of competition from producers in low labour-cost countries like China.
    30. An oft-cited paper by David Autor of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT),
    David Dorn of the University of Zurich and Gordon Hanson of the University of California, San Diego,
    suggests that 44% of the decline in manufacturing in the United States between 1990 and 2007
    might be attributed to competition from Chinese imports. Between 1992 and 2008, 20-40% of the
    US current account deficit could be attributed to trade with China as China was not importing nearly
    as much as it was exporting to the United States. That paper noted: “Adjustment in local labour
    markets is remarkably slow, with wages and labour-force participation rates depressed and
    unemployment rates remaining elevated for at least a full decade after the China trade shock
    commences. Exposed workers experience greater job churning and reduced lifetime income. At the
    national level, employment has fallen in those US industries more exposed to import competition, as
    expected, but offsetting employment gains in other industries have yet to materialise” (Autor et al.,
    2016). The study suggests that there is a link between job losses in some older industrial sectors
    and trade with China. Employment losses resulting from trade to China largely occurred as imports
    from that country to the United States soared. Interestingly, however, the market share of Chinese
    goods in the US market has largely remained constant since 2010, while its rate of domestic
    economic growth has slowed considerably as its own economy has matured, its wage costs risen,
    and population aged. In this sense, the greatest changes in the balance of trade between the two
    countries may have already occurred by now (Irwin, 2016). That China is a major purchaser of
    US Treasury Bills is not at all incidental to this. Chinese lending helps finance US budget deficits,
    but it also contributes to a depreciation of the renminbi relative to the dollar which, in turn, is
    expressed in US current account deficits.
    31. Unfortunately for less skilled Western workers, the most dynamic part of the job market has
    been in positions requiring higher levels of education. The less skilled have been the most hurt by a
    globalising economy. As suggested above, many job losses are also linked to technological change
    and attendant job-shedding productivity gains, but it is far more difficult politically to rail against
    technology than it is to complain about the unfair trade practices of foreign countries. There is thus
    a tendency on both sides of the Atlantic to blame trade disproportionately for the woes that have
    beset Western industrial workers over the last 20 years. Countervailing arguments regarding the
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    8
    gains from trade tend to be discounted. These include benefits to consumers who pay lower prices
    for a greater variety of goods and services made available as a result of trade, dynamic gains to
    productivity, falling input prices, job creation in emerging sectors, and overall competitiveness of the
    export sector.
    IV. PROACTIVE LONG-TERM STRATEGIES FOR COPING WITH THE GLOBAL ECONOMY:
    THE EDUCATION DIMENSION
    32. A number of European countries typically respond to upheavals in the job market both by
    redistributing income through the fiscal system and social safety programmes and by supporting
    education and job training. These policies have counteracted some of the distributional impacts
    associated with maintaining an open economy by redistributing some of the gains from trade through
    public budgets. It is interesting that countries that position themselves to benefit from trade while
    actively generalising at least part of those gains face less resistance to free trade than those societies
    where such policies are not in place. Governments can soften the harder edges of the global
    economy by sharing out part of the gains to the broader society. This works best when this partial
    redistribution aims above all to raise worker productivity and flexibility while improving international
    competitiveness. Properly calibrated public policy can work to ensure that societies are better
    positioned to cope with globalisation and the rapid technological, managerial, and educational
    changes that must be undertaken if that society is to flourish while embracing inevitable change.
    33. The OECD has produced an important report, Making Trade Work for All, that provides a kind
    of manual of best practices for governments intent on ensuring that some of the gains from trade are
    broadly shared in a way to enhance productivity. The report suggests that providing re-employment
    and basic income support through unemployment insurance schemes and active labour market
    programmes will not only build public support for open trade but also help countries flourish in
    international markets. OECD studies suggest that generalising these policies rather than focusing
    only on workers displaced by trade constitutes the most effective approach. This gets the state out
    of the tricky business of determining precisely which workers have lost jobs due to trade and provides
    a modicum of social protection and support to those knocked out of the job market and seeking to
    re-enter it (OECD, 2017). Obviously, education is critical, and how societies structure their
    educational systems over the long run conditions how well they manage their economies in an ever
    more global setting. Technology, communications, migration, environmental change, trade, and
    investment have all made the world smaller. Students of all ages today require the cultural
    understanding, linguistic, cognitive and social skills, core knowledge, and technological prowess to
    flourish in this rapidly evolving economy.
    34. For many countries, this will mean updating national and local education systems so that
    students as well as older “trainees” are equipped with the cognitive and critical capacities as well as
    social skills and mindset that they need to help themselves and their societies flourish in an ever
    more international setting (OECD, 2017). This is not, by any means, easy to achieve, for example in
    isolated heartland communities far from borders. But even these communities are touched by
    international market changes, and their educational systems need to prepare people from all walks
    of life for these changes. Moreover, education should no longer be considered the domain of the
    young. In a very fast-moving global economy, education must be a life-long endeavour. Failure on
    this front threatens to exacerbate social and generational divisions and to widen the gulf between
    those regions which have successfully entered the global economy and those that perceive the
    global economy as a threat that is best wished away. It goes without saying that this latter “head in
    the sand” approach is doomed to failure.
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    9
    V. IS A WESTERN RETREAT FROM GLOBALISATION AND THE MULTILATERAL TRADING
    SYSTEM POSSIBLE?
    35. There is little doubt that the international trading order was long driven by a shared transatlantic
    interest in open trade, international monetary stability and agreed rules of the game.
    The Bretton Woods system and the institutions needed to uphold it proved highly effective, not only
    in transforming these aspirations into a reality, but also in providing a vehicle for many other countries
    to participate in this system. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) ultimately
    transformed into the World Trade Organization, while the IMF eventually became an institution
    dedicated to preserving global monetary stability after the end of the dollar-gold standard. But with
    parts of the West abandoning the optimism that once infused economic policy making, the rise of
    new centres of global economic power, and far more vast flows of private capital and complex value
    chains determining trade flows, the old international commercial order has changed in fundamental
    ways. The rise of new economic powers has also altered the strategic chessboard. Countries like
    China now seem to be preparing to assume leadership roles on their own terms and premised on
    their own values rather than on those of the West.
    36. The withdrawal of the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership talks has, at least
    partly, opened up a door for China to become the arbiter of the trading and monetary order in East
    Asia. China remains committed to a kind of globalisation that differs in important ways from traditional
    Western views of the concept. It has played a key role in pushing for the creation of the
    Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank, and it is advancing its
    commercial interests all the way to Europe through its Belt and Road Initiative. The problem from
    the Western perspective is that China is still a developing country, and an undemocratic one at that.
    Its approach to the developing world tends to be transactional and it has hardly internalised the
    notion of playing the role of the benign hegemon, which sometimes requires the sacrifice of
    immediate national interest for the sake of the broader system – a role that Great Britain had
    assumed in the 19th
    century and that the United States played to great effect in the post-war period.
    China still seems to harbour a zero-sum view of trade, and its push to acquire Western developed
    technologies, often in ways that violate international commercial norms, suggests that this is not a
    country prepared to play a systemic leadership role. China also confronts daunting structural
    difficulties as well as potential domestic political problems that will continue to distract its attention.
    Its currency is not fully convertible, its capital markets are not sufficiently developed and its banking
    system is vulnerable, lacks transparency and is subject to political interference. From the perspective
    of many analysts, its trade policies can seem blatantly mercantilist. China is thus seen with varying
    degrees of mistrust by some of its neighbours, not all of whom believe that such a thing as a “peaceful
    rise” to power is possible, particularly given that this has assumed a blatantly military form in the
    Pacific. Indeed, China’s rapid military build-up and its highly contested claims on the East and
    South China Seas tend to reinforce those concerns.
    37. While it would be difficult for China today to establish itself as a systemic leader of the
    international trading order, the United States is also altering its approach. In the post-war period, the
    United States advanced a multilateral vision for an international trading system that promised ever
    diminishing impediments to free trade. That vision no longer holds. President Donald Trump, his
    advisor Peter Navarro, Director of the White House National Trade Council, and the Commerce
    Secretary, Wilbur Ross, have alluded to the possibility of replacing the multilateral trading system
    with a series of bilaterally negotiated trading agreements. President Trump told Paul Gigot of the
    Wall Street Journal: “We’ve also withdrawn from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, paving the way for
    new one-on-one trade deals that protect and defend the American worker. And believe me, we’re
    going to have a lot of trade deals. But they’ll be one-on-one. There won’t be a whole big mash pot”
    (Gigot, 2017). If this is the direction in which the Trump Administration moves, and it is not at all clear
    if this rhetoric will fully translate into policy, it will mark a fundamental change in the US approach to
    trade policy (Gertz, 2017).
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    10
    38. This anti-trade rhetoric was transformed into policy on 8 March 2018 when the Trump
    Administration, despite strong protests from Republican leaders of Congress, invoked a rarely used
    national security exemption to impose new tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to the
    United States, although Canada and Mexico were initially exempted pending the outcome of the
    NAFTA renegotiations. The EU was also given a temporary exemption in the expectation that some
    kind of deal on steel and aluminium markets could be achieved. That did not transpire and in late
    May the United States slapped levies on EU, Canadian and Mexican steel and aluminium. The EU
    issued a statement that expressed “its willingness to discuss current market access issues of interest
    to both sides, but has also made clear that, as a longstanding partner and friend of the US, we will
    not negotiate under threat.” It announced a series of retaliatory measures against US goods. By
    contrast, South Korea reached a preliminary deal for a permanent exemption from the steel tariffs
    because it agreed to cap its exports to the United States at 70% of the average export volume of the
    previous three years (Cassella, 2018).
    39. Canada, Mexico, Japan and the European Union collectively supply roughly one half of
    US imported metal. In August, President Trump doubled tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminium
    imports as part of a separate dispute. These decisions represent a sharp escalation of pressure on
    the global trading system and have had a negative impact on broader transatlantic and hemispheric
    relations. The tariffs have had an immediate impact on the global steel trade. The users of imported
    steel, including the US automobile and construction sectors, are also paying a high price for the
    decision.
    40. The economic fallout has been ratcheted upwards due to inevitable countermeasures against
    US goods. Mexico, for example, announced retaliatory tariffs on bourbon, apples, potatoes, cheese
    and pork ranging from 15% to 25% (Webber et al., 2018). In anticipation of the US tariffs, the EU
    had already prepared a list of US products that would be subject to elevated tariffs if the
    United States went ahead with its tariffs. In June, the European Commission reported that it would
    apply the tariffs to a list of US goods including whisky, motorcycles and pleasure boats. Duties on
    EUR 2.8 billion worth of US goods went into force in June 2018.
    41. Under the EU’s plan, which it says complies with WTO rules, virtually all of the US products on
    the list face a 25% tariff. The EU estimates that US tariffs on steel and aluminium alone will cost
    EUR 6 billion in lost exports. The European Commission’s Vice President overseeing trade policy
    has said that Brussels sees the problem as lying with the President and not with Congress, saying:
    “If you listen to congressman from both parties or American business, they are still in the same
    traditional line as the United States has always been. So the problem is quite concentrated on the
    Administration” (Brunsden, June 2018). Both Canada and the EU have vehemently objected to the
    invocation of national security as a justification for the US tariffs, particularly given that they are close
    allies of the United States. The Canadian Foreign Minister, Chrystia Freeland, described the security
    argument as “frankly absurd” (Swanson, 31 May 2018). Indeed, the decision to invoke the steel tariffs
    has also complicated US-Canadian relations as well as ongoing NAFTA negotiations. Canada
    announced countermeasures of CAD 16.6 billion in imports of US steel, aluminium and other
    products, which is the value of 2017 Canadian exports affected by the US tariffs. Both Canada and
    the EU will also challenge the US action in the WTO as an illegal invocation of the National Security
    Exception—Article XXI of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.
    42. The US Administration has also announced that it plans to undertake a “Section 232”
    investigation of the trade in automobiles. The prospect of 25% import duties on cars would be far
    more ruinous than steel tariffs, all the more so as these would be answered with powerful retaliation
    (Brunsden and Donnan, 2018). The United States imports roughly USD 190 billion of cars annually
    (Donnan, June 2018). In July, the European Commission announced that, were the Trump
    Administration to follow through on its threat to impose punitive tariffs on automobile imports, it could
    expect global retaliation approaching USD 300 billion of US goods across multiple sectors. This was
    a day after the US President, citing European automobile tariffs, said: “The European Union is
    possibly as bad as China, just smaller. It is terrible what they do to us.” The EU warned that if the
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    11
    United States were to impose automobile tariffs it would plunge the world economy into a very costly
    trade war that would hit the US automobile sector which accounts for 4 million jobs. The EU’s
    Ambassador to Washington testified at a public hearing on the matter that the EU believes the
    “Section 232” steel and aluminium investigation lacks legitimacy and factual basis and would lead
    the United States into a breach of international law.
    43. Other important actors are also strongly opposed to the US Administration’s plan.
    General Motors issued a warning that US automobile tariffs would raise the prices of its cars by
    thousands of dollars, undermine its competitiveness and lead to substantial US job losses.
    EU owned car companies account for 25% of US production, much of which is then exported from
    the United States (Brunsden, June 2018). Of roughly 6 million cars exported by the EU in 2016, more
    than 1 million – just over 16% of the total – were purchased in the United States. The United States
    is the EU’s largest automobile export market. Of the USD 53.6 billion in US car exports in 2016,
    USD 11.8 billion were generated in the EU market, which amounts to roughly 22% of total
    US automobile exports (Turak, 2018).
    44. President Trump has complained that the European Union discriminates against US-made
    cars, arguing that US cars face tariff rates of 10% in EU markets while European made cars enter
    the US market with only a 2.5% tariff rate. This particular discrepancy could be resolved through
    negotiations. The EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström and Japan’s Hiroshige Seko warned
    that if the administration were to move forward with this, it “could lead to the demise of the multilateral
    trading system based on (WTO) rules”. There is an additional risk that other US industries could be
    inspired to seek similar kinds of protection on national security grounds. This would, of course, open
    the floodgates and trigger a wave of protectionist measures that would, in turn, trigger retaliation—
    all at the expense of a mutually enriching liberal trading order (Lynch and Paletta, 28 May 2018).
    45. Although there is a discrepancy between US and EU tariff rates on automobiles, US and EU
    tariff rates are largely similar across a broad array of products. In 2017, the United States ran a trade
    deficit of roughly USD 152 billion with the EU, up from USD 146 billion in 2016. Early indications are
    that US deficits with the EU will be even higher in 2018, given strong US growth and tax cuts
    (United States Census). The discrepancy in relative savings rates is the principal driver of this
    particular deficit.
    46. Trade tensions, however, have also taken on an ideological veneer. President Trump has
    identified the inherently multilateral European Union itself as antithetical to his nationalist trading
    vision and complained that it prevents the United States from negotiating bilaterally with individual
    European countries—although blocking such divide and conquer strategies through the construction
    of a common market has long been a central premise of the European project. This is also an
    ambition the United States has supported, as it has maintained a broad strategic interest in a strong,
    united, self-confident and open Europe.
    47. In late July, President Trump and the President of the European Commission,
    Jean-Claude Juncker, hammered out an agreement to halt the “tit for tat” tariff game and to begin
    talks to lower tariffs and other trade barriers—a process that had already been launched in the TTIP
    negotiations. Business communities on both sides of the Atlantic strongly supported those talks,
    which were nevertheless suspended in 2016. The newly announced US-EU talks are slated to work
    to lower tariffs and other trade barriers, including bureaucratic roadblocks to industrial goods trade
    and conflicting regulations on drugs and chemicals. It is a good sign that both sides have, at least
    temporarily, retreated from the abyss and put an end to further tariff imposition, and are now returning
    to the negotiating table (Swanson and Ewing, 2018). The stakes are high. In 2017, US firms exported
    USD 283 billion of goods to the EU, which is double what they exported to China. US consumers
    purchased USD 435 billion of goods exported from the EU (Lynch and Paletta, 30 May 2018).
    Investment in the United States from the EU 27 totalled USD 259.6 billion in 2017, down from USD
    439.5 billion in 2015, while Canada invested USD 66.2 billion in 2017 (DW, 2017). The EU and
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    12
    Canada are thus critical investors in the US markets, so the risks of a trade war with it are a source
    of deep concern on both sides of the Atlantic.
    48. Trade in digital services poses a key challenge for policymakers and negotiators, particularly
    as policy in this realm runs right into the matter of social and cultural preferences. The US Commerce
    Secretary, Wilbur Ross, has recently argued that the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation has
    protectionist implications. That law requires all companies that use consumers’ private information
    to request explicit permission whenever data is collected and to accord web users the ability to
    download a copy or have it deleted. Companies that fail to comply with these rules face stiff fines.
    European authorities have already launched several investigations of US firms that may not be in
    compliance. There is a very strong preference for privacy protection in Europe and the appeal of
    such protections appears to be growing in the United States as well, particularly in light of the
    revelations on how Cambridge Analytica and other companies including smartphone manufacturers
    used private data gathered from millions of Facebook accounts without the users’ consent (Dance
    et al., 2018). Still, there is a cultural gap on privacy, and it is noteworthy that the conflicting
    preferences of voters and consumers can, in themselves, generate trade tensions. This can be tricky
    for government trade negotiators charged with tackling these complex matters.
    49. A third area of serious transatlantic trade tension surrounds the decision by the Trump
    Administration to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal and reimpose trade sanctions on that country and
    on non-US companies that continue to do business with Iran. In practical terms, this means that
    those European firms that trade with Iran will be denied access to the US financial system. This has
    elicited sharp European complaints of extraterritoriality and further exacerbated mounting trade
    tensions within the Alliance. The European Commission, which intends to support the JCPOA as
    long as Iran is complying with its terms, has announced plans to make direct payments for oil to
    Iran’s central bank and to revive a “blocking statute” from the 1990s that allows companies to ignore
    US sanctions with no consequences in Europe. That statute would prevent EU courts from enforcing
    US sanctions judgements. It would also allow companies to recover damages arising from sanctions
    from the person causing them and to offer euro credit lines to compensate for such sanctions. This,
    however, will probably not be sufficient to encourage large European firms to trade with Iran as many
    are active in the United States and would willingly pull out of Iran before abandoning the US market.
    The French oil company, Total, for example, will withdraw from Iran’s South Pars gasfield unless the
    US government grants it a waiver (Peel, 2018). By contrast, French carmaker Renault, which does
    not sell cars in the US, remains in Iran despite the sanctions. European companies are concerned
    that Asia is poised to seize the Iranian market if the United States successfully manages to push
    European firms out (Fleming, 2018). This has now become a source of transatlantic tension.
    50. Another sanctions crisis has emerged in the bilateral dispute between the United States and
    Turkey over the fate of a US pastor who has been held in a Turkish jail on charges of terrorism—
    charges that US officials have called groundless. In August President Trump doubled tariffs on steel
    and aluminium imports from Turkey and directly linked this action to the dispute. This has only
    reinforced the notion among many analysts that trade sanctions are now emerging as a “go to” tool
    of foreign policy. This tendency, in turn, is feeding pessimism about the viability of the current global
    trading order and its vulnerability to short-term politics (Kwong, 2018).
    51. US business leaders are increasingly concerned about mounting tensions with key trade
    partners and allies. Myron Brilliant, the Executive Vice President of the US Chamber of Commerce,
    has warned of the risk of alienating US allies and the potential for a boomerang effect on the
    US economy. US business leaders, except those in the domestic steel and aluminium industry, are
    well aware that steel and aluminium tariffs have raised prices for a range of products in the
    automobile, beverage, farm equipment and food packaging sectors. The US steel industry has
    successfully objected to hundreds of requests for exemptions made by US companies that rely on
    specialised non- US steel products (Tankersley, 2018). It is worth noting that steel tariffs imposed
    by President George W. Bush in 2002 resulted in the devastating loss of 200,000 US jobs in
    steel-consuming and related sectors (Time Magazine, 2018). Many US manufacturers then
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    13
    confronted difficulties in finding the high quality or specialised steel needed as input for in their
    production and were compelled to shift to sourcing finished parts from overseas and/or relocating
    domestic steel consuming facilities abroad (Global Steel Trade Monitor, 2017). Higher steel costs
    and retaliation by America’s trading partners are factoring into decisions, like that taken by Harley
    Davidson, to offshore some production. A recent report by Trade Partnerships Worldwide, an
    economic consulting firm in Washington, D.C., found that President Trump's trade penalties and their
    resulting retaliation by foreign markets could increase the number of jobs in the steel and aluminium
    manufacturing industry by some 27,000 over the next one to three years. But these gains would be
    more than offset by a reduced net employment of about 430,000 jobs throughout the rest of the
    country (Kiley, 2018).
    52. House Speaker Paul Ryan and a number of his colleagues on Capitol Hill on both sides of the
    aisle have openly opposed the recent tariffs and warned of unintended consequences. Addressing
    the decision to move ahead with tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from the European Union,
    Canada and Mexico, Mr Ryan said: “I disagree with this decision. Instead of addressing the real
    problems in the international trade of these products, today's action targets America's allies when
    we should be working with them to address the unfair trading practices of countries like China…
    There are better ways to help American workers and consumers. I intend to keep working with the
    President on those better options" (Watson, 2018). Congress plays a pivotal role in making US trade
    policy. Article 1, Section 8 of the United States Constitution gives Congress the power “to regulate
    commerce with foreign nations”. According to this so-called Commerce Clause, the power of
    Congress in these matters is exclusive. It will be interesting to see how Congress responds if the
    President opts to follow a protectionist rather than a liberalising course over the coming months.
    Because neither party is unified on the matter, it is not clear at this juncture if, how or when Congress
    will ultimately assert its authority on these current disputes.
    53. Many of these tensions were revealed at the G7 Summit in Canada in early June when trade
    moved to the very top of the agenda. The summit was the most divisive in memory. Key US allies,
    aggrieved that they had suddenly been targeted for tariffs under the rubric of national security, were
    already in the midst of unveiling a series of retaliatory measures. A chair’s summary, released by
    Canada after meetings between finance ministers and central bankers just prior to the Summit, noted
    concerns that “the tariffs imposed by the United States on its friends and allies, on the grounds of
    national security, undermine open trade and confidence in the global economy”. Canada’s Finance
    Minister Morneau added that there had been a consensus among America’s G7 partners that
    US actions had been “destructive to our ability to get things done.” US Treasury Minister
    Steven Mnuchin was then asked to convey the “regret and disappointment” of the G7 partners to
    President Trump (Fleming and Shubber, 2018).
    54. Some have pointed to this situation as a sign that multilateral trading order is on the ropes and
    will soon be replaced by bilateral arrangements. But this is highly problematic. Bilateralism in trade
    lends itself to zero sum calculus when successful negotiations rely on a win-win spirit. Bilateralism
    also leads to arrangements that are generally trade-diverting rather than trade-creating. Trade
    diversion occurs when, because of a series of bilateral arrangements, countries lose the opportunity
    to import from the most competitive suppliers and/or sell to the highest paying customers. Economies
    as a whole thereby suffer so-called dead-weight losses. Many countries believe that a multilateral
    setting for talks provides more room for bargaining flexibility and coalition building. Such conditions
    are far more conducive to actual trade liberalisation. Bilateralism is thus not an attractive option for
    many states. Trade economists generally see bilateral solutions as inferior to multilateral approaches
    to trade and blame both the EU and the United States for edging away from multilateral trade
    negotiations under the auspices of the WTO. A trading system premised on bilateral trade
    arrangements would lead to all kinds of trade distortions. It would result in a “spaghetti bowl” of costly
    rules, arbitrary definitions of product origins, and a huge array of tariffs depending on product origin
    which, itself, is often difficult to determine given the international integration of production lines. Such
    approaches also undermine the principle of “most favoured nation rules”, “which under the WTO
    have ensured equal treatment for a broad band of countries” (Bhagwati and Panagariya, 2003).
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    14
    55. A system of bilateral trading arrangements would also require an enormous bureaucracy to
    negotiate and administer. Instead of creating an easy way to navigate the international market, an
    international trading order riddled with bilateral deals would impose a confusing array of rules that
    would wrap exporters and importers in red tape. Such a system would set aside competition as the
    driver of trade while elevating the influence of lobbyists and other rent seekers. Since presumably
    these bilateral deals would not result in similar outcomes, varying tariff and quota requirements would
    distort trade and lead to sub-optimal outcomes which might compel, say, car companies, to source
    parts from suppliers which do not offer the best quality-price combinations. Productivity and
    profitability would suffer enormously as a result.
    56. Forging regional blocs has emerged as a superior alternative to bilateralism, although these
    blocs can have trade-diverting impacts vis-à-vis countries outside the bloc. In November 2017, Japan
    and ten other Pacific countries including Canada agreed to move forward with a vast Pacific regional
    trading agreement. At Canada’s request, the new initiative is called the Comprehensive and
    Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and the initial goal is to fully ratify
    the deal by 2019. The agreement seeks to eliminate tariffs on 95% of goods traded in a bloc of
    500 million consumers that account for USD 13.5 trillion in income today. The agreement has scaled
    back the investor-state dispute settlement provisions that the United States had been promoting in
    the TPP talks, and it will afford governments more regulatory leeway than the US had wanted.
    US companies had been pushing for the right to sue governments, which many governments
    opposed. The extension of copyright and intellectual property protections, something the United
    States had long promoted, has also been weakened. If ratified, the CPTPP would be one of the
    world’s most important and comprehensive trade agreements. It is noteworthy that the Pacific region
    has opted to move ahead without the United States and without some of the principles that the US
    traditionally advances. The signatories, however, have agreed to leave the door open for the United
    States to join the arrangement at a later date, although President Trump has indicated that this will
    not happen during his administration (Donnan, April 2018).
    57. There is also uncertainty about the future of NAFTA, which has bound Canada, Mexico and
    the United States in a very open trading arrangement since 1994. President Trump has stated that
    the United States hopes not to have to pull out of the agreement but has been very critical of its
    terms. Negotiations are underway to update NAFTA, although there has been little apparent
    progress. The primary focus of talks involves rules of origin and how to measure the trade balance
    among member countries, dispute settlement mechanisms and a sunset clause which would see the
    agreement expire after five years unless the parties explicitly agree to extend it. The Trump
    Administration supports stricter rules of origin clauses and the inclusion of a sunset clause while
    opposing dispute settlement panels. Both Mexico and Canada have warned that a sunset clause
    would undermine investor confidence as investors work on time horizons that significantly exceed
    five years. Canada and Mexico both feel that abandoning dispute settlement panels would
    undermine the enforcement of agreed trading rules. Currently, for goods to qualify for NAFTA’s duty
    exemptions, roughly 60% of the product’s inputs must be from North America. The US Administration
    has called for a minimal level of US content—something again that both Mexico and Canada oppose.
    58. It is not clear that there is strong support for these initiatives in the United States either. The
    automobile industry is particularly opposed to the proposed changes that would radically undercut
    their current supply chains models, and the US Chamber of Commerce has warned against “poison
    pill” proposals that might undermine the entire NAFTA agreement (Carmichael, 2017). The Trump
    Administration’s imposition of steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada and Mexico has further setback
    NAFTA talks and has elicited retaliatory measures from both countries. Moreover, several days after
    those tariffs were announced, the Trump Administration revealed that it would henceforward seek to
    deal with Canada and Mexico bilaterally rather than in tripartite talks—something again that both
    Mexico and Canada vigorously oppose (Swanson and Tankersley, 2018). It is worth noting that the
    Congress has not granted President Trump the Trade Promotion Authority necessary to negotiate
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    15
    bilaterally with Canada and Mexico in the context of NAFTA and that the President is therefore is not
    currently authorised to conduct bilateral talks with them (Webber, 2018).
    59. The US Administration has also communicated to its hemispheric partners that if it leaves
    NAFTA, it will not resort to WTO trading rules and that both Mexico and Canada will therefore
    confront significantly higher tariffs on goods exported to the United States. The Canadian negotiating
    team refused to include a non-conforming measure that would have compelled Canada to apply the
    “most favoured nation” principle to its NAFTA partners.
    60. This apparent move away from structures that have so ably facilitated international trade
    liberalisation has also raised questions about the future of the WTO. The US Administration has
    been particularly critical of the WTO panel system that adjudicates trade disputes among WTO
    members. Panel decisions are binding—something that US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer
    and the administration strongly oppose. The United States has blocked two appointments to the
    appellate court, and this triggered a warning from EU Trade Commissioner, Cecilia Malmström, that
    the administration policy could result in “killing the W.T.O. from the inside” (Porter, 2017). Although
    the United States has won more than 90% of disputes it has had adjudicated at the WTO, it has lost
    a similar percentage of cases launched against it. Robert Lighthizer has also declared that the WTO
    has failed to rein in China’s mercantilist policies and its refusal to uphold patent protections (Donnan,
    10 November 2017).
    VI. TRADE AND SECURITY
    61. Although trade is largely about economics, it also concerns state relations and security. The
    conduct of trade demands a modicum of good relations among trading partners as well as a shared
    agreement on the rules of the game. Mutually beneficial trade relations help bind together the state
    system. As President Franklin Roosevelt’s long serving Secretary of State Cordell Hull once recalled:
    “When the war came in 1914, I was very soon impressed with two points. [...] I saw that you could
    not separate the idea of commerce from the idea of war and peace [...] [and] that wars were often
    largely caused by economic rivalry conducted unfairly. [...] to me, unhampered trade dovetailed with
    peace; high tariffs, trade barriers, and unfair economic competition, with war. Though realising that
    many other factors were involved, I reasoned that, if we could get a freer flow of trade—freer in the
    sense of fewer discriminations and obstructions—so that one country would not be deadly jealous
    of another and the living standards of all countries might rise, thereby eliminating the economic
    dissatisfaction that breeds war, we might have a reasonable chance for lasting peace” (Hurlburt,
    2016)
    62. Cordell Hull and the architects of the post-war international order recognised that protectionism
    had been a critical factor in deteriorating diplomatic relations in the run-up to World War II. They
    were determined to make free trade a central plank of the emerging global security order. The Cold
    War only reaffirmed the importance of open trading relations among Allies. With strong
    US leadership, tariffs and quotas were progressively reduced both in Europe and in North America.
    Trade became a critical engine of extraordinarily rapid economic recovery which, in turn, made it
    possible to underwrite expensive national defense programmes. The newly formed European
    Communities made trade among Allies a central plank of reconciliation on the continent. As for Asia,
    US leaders recognised how crucial Japanese recovery would be to Asian stability and the degree to
    which open trade would be essential to this project. The GATT system ultimately helped
    multilateralise these liberalising trends both by managing trade disputes and by ensuring that the
    benefits of free trade could be extended across the world. The genius of US policy was that it
    recognised that the prosperity created by a free trade order would both foster political stability and
    lower international tension. As long as this win-win dynamic was in place, there would be a reduced
    incentive to upend the international order.
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    16
    63. Unfortunately, over the last 20 years, the perception that trade constitutes a win-win proposition
    and naturally bolsters domestic and international security has waned. Job losses in the
    manufacturing sector in industrialised countries are increasingly blamed on trade, even when trade
    is often not the determining factor. Moreover, some of the greatest beneficiaries of international trade
    today are considered rivals rather than partners.
    64. China, for example, has greatly benefitted from the international trading order. But trade and
    prosperity have not made China democratic, even if that country is decidedly more plural than it was
    during the so-called Cultural Revolution. Trade has, however, increased China’s stake in a stable
    international economic order even if it remains a formidable rival to the West and one now capable
    of financing its very large military complex. NATO countries are all concerned about its poor record
    on intellectual property protection and its implicit state subsidies to some of its industries. But trade
    tensions between the United States and its allies make it far more difficult to focus on the challenge
    from China, at least in a collective fashion. China is demanding a greater say in international
    economic institutions—many would argue rightfully so given its weight in the international
    economy— and it will also likely become a far more powerful shaper of the East Asian economic
    order after the United States pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade talks, and agreement that
    also excludes China. So the Chinese example of how trade and security interact provides a mixed
    message. It has both increased China’s stake in the international order while empowering it to shape
    that order to better conform to its interests, for example, through the One Belt One Road Initiative or
    through its cooperation with the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
    and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) (Hurlburt, 2016).
    65. Even though the TPP and TTIP were informed by compelling strategic visions, in practical
    terms they focused on reducing impediments to trade. Still, each offered new ways to manage
    diplomatic relations among allies and partners. East Asia, for example, is a highly fragmented region
    lacking an overarching alliance framework capable of containing rivalries and building stability. Over
    decades, the United States instead erected a series of bilateral security partnerships for that
    purpose. But it was long felt that a broader multilateral approach that extended into economic policy
    was needed to foster a shared-stake regional security, particularly in the face of a rising China. The
    TPP, which excluded China, offered a framework, at least, for regional commercial cooperation. But
    the hope was that the habit of working together would spill over to the diplomatic and security realms.
    The Trump Administration, however, has now adopted a bilateral approach to trade in the Pacific
    (Donnan and Sevastopulo, 2018).
    66. The situation for the transatlantic space is significantly different. NATO has long provided a
    common security framework for the United States, Canada and much of Europe. At the same time,
    multilateral trade deals have lowered barriers to trade between Europe and the United States, while
    NAFTA has done the same for the United States, Canada and Mexico. In the case of the
    now-suspended TTIP talks, the goal had been to reinforce the transatlantic relationship by further
    deepening trade ties between the United States and the EU. Unfortunately, strong resistance on
    both sides of the Atlantic emerged, in part, because these talks addressed issues that traditionally
    are not considered trade matters as such, but rather concern regulatory issues which can also be
    construed as non-tariff barriers. Those talks focused on three main areas: market access, specific
    technical regulations and broader trading rules. The British decision to leave the EU and mounting
    public opposition to TTIP led to a halt in the talks in 2016. In Europe, a coalition of populists, farm
    groups, environmentalists and anti-globalisation activists drove the opposition to the talks (Barker,
    2016). As suggested above, the recent meeting between President Trump and Jean-Claude Juncker
    has for the moment eased mounting transatlantic trade tensions with the promise of new talks. But
    the specific form these take and the outlook for progress remain to be seen. It is worth noting here
    that Canada and the EU have completed a free trade agreement—the so-called EU Canada
    Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) —which provisionally entered into force in
    September 2017.
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    17
    67. A number of strategic analysts worry that the foundations of the security-trade nexus are now
    under pressure. Whereas trade and security were once generally seen as mutually reinforcing—
    particularly among allies and friends—that relationship today seems less firm. Recent tensions over
    steel and aluminium could mark a paradigmatic shift in how trade and security are linked in
    North America and Europe. Much will depend on how the politics are handled.
    VII. RECOMMENDATIONS
    68. The Western commitment to open trade unambiguously diminished after the financial crisis of
    2008. From a position of confidence and strength, many countries in the West appear to have
    adopted more tentative and defensive postures toward international trade. Although this view belies
    the preponderance of evidence, it has increasingly captured the imagination of some voters who
    have suffered economically as a result of shifting economic paradigms, technological advances,
    educational shortcomings and, more generally, sub-optimal public policy. The risk is that trade
    protectionism, unilateralism and mercantilism could inspire wealth-destroying policies that would
    shrink trade, undermine investment, raise prices, kill jobs and poison international relations.
    69. Leadership truly matters. The failure of national political leaders to build and sustain a new
    consensus around the virtues of trade and to construct commercial policies premised on those
    virtues could have devastating economic impacts.
    70. The invocation of protectionist policies invariably triggers retaliation. Trade disputes tend to
    ratchet upward, particularly when the protectionist impulse is seeping into national politics.
    Burgeoning trade battles would also have a devastating impact on the global economy and would
    trigger new geopolitical tensions while weakening solidarity among allies. Moreover, all evidence
    suggests that poorer people would suffer the most in such a scenario (Fajbelbaum and Khandelwal,
    2016). An all-out effort is therefore needed now to prevent a trade war over steel, aluminium and
    automobiles. Going down that path would be very harmful to the United States and its allies and it
    would move the world economy in precisely the wrong direction.
    71. It is high time to recall the basic principles of international trade. Firstly, a trade deficit is not in
    itself a bad thing. It can simply be a manifestation of rapid economic growth or restructuring, which
    requires significant importation of capital goods. Trade balances reflect broader macro-economic
    phenomena related to savings and investment and are a natural consequence of dissavings and
    borrowing. Trade balances can also be shaped by misaligned exchange rates by focusing policy on
    trade balances, per se, one thus risks targeting the manifestation of the illness (or source of health)
    rather than the cure. To assume otherwise is to dismiss overwhelming evidence that trade is a
    generator of prosperity, jobs and economic dynamism. Citing trade imbalances as the source of
    economic woes and calling for protectionist solutions can be politically popular even if protectionism
    might best be characterised as a shortcut to economic ruin. Economists often argue that when
    seeking to resolve market deficiencies, policymakers are better off focusing their efforts most directly
    on the source of the problem. Restricting trade to reduce unemployment in a given sector, for
    example, is the equivalent of using a sledgehammer to crack a nut. The long-term damage will far
    outweigh any short-term sectoral benefits. Far more nuanced approaches are needed, such as
    long-term strategies to raise productivity.
    72. Indeed, “whole of government” approaches are needed. Trade policy is no longer the domain
    of trade ministers alone. Redistributing some of the benefits of trade, for example, to underwrite
    education and training programmes can help prepare workers for future markets rather than leaving
    them untrained and vulnerable to paradigmatic changes in global markets. Ensuring the public’s
    skillset is relevant to market conditions, for example, will help position societies to exploit the full
    potential gains to be had from trade.
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    18
    73. Those workers who lose in trade thus need access to the tools and resources to reset their
    careers. Life-long education is increasingly recognised as a vital pillar of a successful internationally
    oriented economy. A working population that knows that society has its back as it participates in the
    wealth-generating global economy is more likely to embrace rather than fear that economy. This is
    precisely the spirit that animates the globally-oriented Nordic countries. These countries welcome
    rather than fear the world economy, and they benefit enormously as a result. Their high-quality
    education systems are structured to teach citizens how to flourish in this global setting. These
    countries ensure that those who suffer setbacks in the dynamic and competitive global market are
    both taken care of in the very short term and helped to adjust to paradigmatic economic change over
    the longer term. In this way, social spending to support the safety net might be best seen as an
    investment, the rewards for which are reaped in the global economy. Social anxieties are also a
    primary hindrance to the societal embrace of trade. And while those anxieties are a tempting target
    for political opportunists, it is actually far better to relieve them through innovative and proactive
    policies rather than undercutting the trading systems which actually generate prosperity. The OECD
    report, “Making Trade Work for All”, provides some very practical guidance on how states might best
    structure these approaches.
    74. Education and training are key to building societies that approach globalisation with
    confidence. Students need to develop the analytical, linguistic, and cultural skills for the future
    economy. This requires a leap of imagination on the part of educators and policymakers. In 2018,
    the OECD will launch an international assessment of how school systems across member countries
    and beyond are faring in developing global competencies in young people. This will provide an initial
    assessment on how education systems are preparing students to function in a more integrated world.
    Policymakers should pay attention to the results once the assessment is concluded. It will provide a
    valuable evidence-based yardstick for governments and educators seeking to make school curricula
    relevant to societies that aspire to flourish in an integrated global economic system. It will also
    provide broad guidance on best practices that could be useful to school administrators, teachers and
    policymakers alike.
    75. It is also important to develop programmes and networks to help small and medium firms
    exploit international market opportunities. These firms often lack the know-how, connections and
    staffing to operate in international markets and, not surprisingly, they are underrepresented in the
    global economy. Much can be done to reverse this, including reducing burdensome regulations that
    effectively price these firms out of those markets. Organisational structures that help these firms pool
    resources to facilitate access to international markets can be particularly fruitful. Related to this is
    the need for readily accessible infrastructure that facilitates participation in global markets (OECD,
    2018).
    76. Trade policy is no longer simply the responsibility of trade ministers alone. They are in no
    position to conduct labour, education, migration, development, tax and environmental policies on
    their own. All these sectors bear directly or indirectly on how countries manage trade policy and
    conduct trade negotiations. Whole of government approaches are needed to build an open global
    economy. This is also in keeping with emerging approaches to growth including inclusive and
    sustainable development frameworks. When the benefits of economic growth accrue to an
    increasingly narrow sector of society, the risk of social and political tensions mounts, and economies
    begin to underperform. Rising economic inequality places a cap on growth potential simply because
    this becomes a constraint on aggregate demand. Macroeconomic, financial and trade policies can
    be structured to create the conditions for more inclusive, broadly-based and sustainable growth. This
    is all the more important at a moment when recent technology trends appear to be concentrating
    rather than diffusing wealth. Preparing society for the nascent fourth industrial revolution may be the
    most effective means to ensure that the gains from trade and economic growth are widely shared
    rather than narrowly hoarded (World Economic Forum, 2018).
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    19
    77. Most economists would argue that moving away from a multilateral trading order towards
    bilateralism would be a mistake. It would burden the global trading system with red tape, undercut
    global value chains and trigger trade diversion, all of which would limit the full prosperity-generating
    potential of trade. Bilateralism, moreover, will never resolve structural trade imbalances that simply
    reflect savings-investment imbalances. It is thus time to revitalise multilateral trade negotiations to
    give a long-term boost to global growth.
    78. Multilateral trading arrangements need strong institutions to uphold the rules of the game.
    Although it is not perfect, the WTO and its panel-based dispute resolution system is charged with
    upholding this pillar of a rules-based global economic system. If it did not exist, it would have to be
    invented. This organisation is now under attack by some who reject the very principle of
    multilateralism. Those who recognise that the multilateral trading system represents a critical catalyst
    for growth, innovation and peaceful win-win interaction among states need to be prepared to defend
    it with great vigour and a degree of imagination. Of course, that does not rule out the desirability of
    meaningful reform. The WTO needs to cope with many of the new challenges to the global trading
    order including the rising importance of digital economy. A strong rules-based order will only enhance
    the leverage of states and market actors who are victims of unfair trade practices. Along these lines,
    North American and European concerns about property rights protection, industry subsides and
    overcapacity in countries like China are legitimate and merit attention (May, 2018). The Global Forum
    on Steel Excess Capacity, created by the G20, has offered a new model for how to manage such
    disputes without resorting to trade wars. It has worked for the removal of subsidies and other market
    distorting measures that have created a glut of steel in world markets, which has been a source of
    mounting trade tension.
    79. Efforts should be made to improve international trading rules in order to expand the
    beneficiaries of trade, to give voice to those whose voices are often not heard in public discussions
    about trade and to make the system more free, fair and open. Much of this can be achieved by better
    implementing WTO rules and applying free trade principles in areas, such as agriculture, which have
    long escaped the logic of liberalisation. International cooperation on matters pertaining to competition
    policy could also help. Cooperation is also needed to govern the global digital economy which has
    often avoided the agreed-on rules of the game. Likewise, a consolidated international effort is
    needed to resolve the problem of base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) which has allowed
    multinational firms to avoid paying taxes in local markets from which they derive profits. Labour
    standards and working conditions have long been excluded from trade discussions. But there is room
    to do more here as well, and much can be done outside of formal trade talks. This effort is essential
    to lower public anxiety about trade. Finally, there is ample room to make trade negotiations more
    transparent and open. Public suspicions about trade are often fueled by secret negotiations where
    many imagine their own interests are being sold out. Transparency can help alleviate those kinds of
    concerns (OECD, 2017).
    80. The United States and Europe have traditionally shared many fundamental assumptions about
    trade and its benefits. The TTIP framework was supposed to take the trade relationship to a new
    level of integration and should be revived. Allied countries should reinforce the commercial
    partnership. The collective weight of a shared Euro-Atlantic vision for trade is all the more important
    as the Chinese are advancing a very different view of the global trading system. There is ample room
    for North America and Europe to advance a shared vision for trade well beyond the Euro-Atlantic
    area.
    81. In this regard, it makes sense to create an informal transnational parliamentary caucus of
    democratic societies dedicated to defending and improving the liberal trading order.
    Parliamentarians have a critical role to play in developing trade policy and building public consensus
    to support it. Their efforts could be strengthened by reaching out to elected leaders who share those
    goals.
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    20
    82. Finally trade protectionism never occurs in a vacuum. Unilaterally imposing tariffs or quotas is
    a shortcut to triggering a trade war. Economic history points to the destructive nature of “beggar thy
    neighbour” trade wars. No country wins and both international and domestic markets can be severely
    constricted when this dynamic is unleashed. The experience of the 1930s remains instructive. A
    dangerous process of deglobalisation was unleashed at a time when a financial crisis made it
    impossible for the long-reigning hegemonic power, Great Britain, to reassume responsibility for the
    broader trading order. The rising power, the United States, was not yet politically prepared to take
    on that burden. A period of competitive devaluations and rising tariffs and quotas followed which
    essentially amounted to a chain of ‘beggar thy neighbour’ policies that choked off growth in the global
    economy and led to a degradation in state relations. Some analysts have discerned parallels with
    the current situation and there are worries that mounting trade strife today could translate into more
    serious security risks in the future (Barbieri, 2016). In short, unilaterally prioritising national economic
    growth with no consideration for broader systemic obligations will poison the well for all countries
    including the most powerful, and it will paradoxically undermine growth for all. At the end of the day,
    it remains the essential task of leaders to mind the lessons of history.
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    21
    BIBLIOGRAPHY
    Autor, David H.; Dorn, David and Hanson, Gordon H., “The China Shock: Learning from
    Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade,” The Annual Review of Economics,
    2016.
    Barker, Tyson, “How TTIP lost steam,” Foreign Affairs, 28 September 2016.
    Bhagwati, Jagdish, “Dawn of a New System, Finance and Development,” The International Monetary
    Fund, December 2013 Vol. 50 No. 4,
    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2013/12/bhagwati.htm
    Bhagwati Jagdish and Panagariya, Arvind, “Bilateral Trade deals are a sham,” Financial Times,
    13 July 2003, http://www.columbia.edu/~ap2231/ET/FT_Op-ed_with%20JB_July13_03.htm
    Barbieri, Pierpaolo, “The losers of deglobalization,” Foreign Affairs 13 November 2016.
    Brunsden, Jim, “EU hits back at Trump with tariffs on US goods,” Financial Times, 7 June 2018.
    Brunsden, Jim, “EU warns of $300 bn hit to US over car import tariffs,” Financial Times, 1July 2018,
    https://www.ft.com/content/38388ebe-7d21-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475
    Brunsden, Jim and Shawn Donnan, “Europe grapples with response to US tariffs,” Financial Times,
    1 June 2018.
    Carmichael, Kevin, “America is making country of origin rules a NAFTA priority, Look out Canada,
    Macleans, 25 September 2017 http://www.macleans.ca/economy/nafta-country-of-origin-
    canada-u-s/
    Cassella, Megan, “Trump grants EU extra month of relief from steel tariffs,” Politico, 1 May 2018
    https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-grants-key-allies-extra-month-of-relief-from-steel-
    aluminum-tariffs/
    Dance, Gabriel et.al, “Facebook gave device makers deep access to Data on Users and Friends,”
    New York Time 3 June 2018,
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/06/03/technology/facebook-device-partners-users-
    friends-data.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-
    heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
    Donnan, Shawn, “Fears for Global Trade as Trump fires first shot to kneecap WTO, Financial Times,
    10 November 2017,
    https://www.ft.com/content/5afbd914-a2b2-11e7-8d56-98a09be71849
    Donnan, Shawn, “TPP Deal Ignites Criticism of US Isolation on Trade,” Financial Times,
    12 November 2017.
    Donnan, Shawn, “Trade War fears cut cross border activity,” Financial Times, 7 June 2018.
    Donnan, Shawn, “Trump ends his brief flirtation with TPP,” Financial Times, 18 April 2018.
    Donnan, Shawn “U.S. Trade deficit jumps 12.1% in Trump’s first year in office,” The Financial Times,
    6 February 2018, https://www.ft.com/content/8f34b9d4-0b40-11e8-8eb7-42f857ea9f09
    Donnan, Shawn and Demetri Sevastopulo, “Trump opens door to US rejoining TPP,” Financial
    Times, 28 January 2018, https://www.ft.com/content/3cb22bb8-0205-11e8-9650-
    9c0ad2d7c5b5
    DW, “Foreign Investments in US down sharply,” 12 July 2017, https://www.dw.com/en/foreign-
    investment-in-us-down-sharply/a-44643998
    The Economist, “Trade in the balance: Globalisation can make everyone better off,” 6 February 2016,
    https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21690073-globalisation-can-make-
    everyone-better-does-not-mean-it-will-trade
    Fajbelbaum, Pablo and Khandelwal, Amit K. “Measuring the Unequal Gains from Trade,” The
    Quarterly Journal of Economics Vol 131, Issue 3, 1 August 2016.
    Fleming, Sam, European groups at risk of US sanctions over Iran,” Financial Times, 14 May 2018.
    Fleming, Sam and Kadhim Shubber, “G7 nations rebuke US over metal tariffs,” Financial Times,
    4 June 2018.
    Gigot, Paul, “Building the Wall,” The Wall Street Journal, 30 January 2017.
    Global Steel Trade Monitor, “Steel Imports Report: United States,” December 2017, U.S.
    International Trade Administration, December 2017,
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    22
    https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/imports-us.pdf
    Gertz, Geoffrey, “What will Trump’s embrace of bilateralism mean for America’s trade partners,”
    Brookings, 8 February 2017,
    https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2017/02/08/what-will-trumps-embrace-
    of-bilateralism-mean-for-americas-trade-partners/
    Hu, Fred and Spence, Michael, “Why Globalization Stalled and How to Restart It,” Foreign Affairs,
    July/August 2017.
    Hurlburt, Heather, “The Security Case for Trade, Why we need to Reframe the TPP,” Foreign Affairs,
    27 September, 2016.
    Irwin, Douglas A., “The Truth About Trade: What Critics Get Wrong About the Global Economy,”
    Foreign Affairs, July/August 2016.
    Jones, Bradley, “Support for free trade agreements rebounds modestly, but wide partisan differences
    remain,” FACTANK, Pew Research Center, 25 April 2017,
    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/25/support-for-free-trade-agreements-
    rebounds-modestly-but-wide-partisan-differences-remain/.
    Kiley, David, “Why Trump's Tariffs Are Costing Harley And Other U.S. Companies,” Forbes, 25 June
    2018, https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidkiley5/2018/06/25/why-trumps-tariffs-are-costing-
    harley-and-others-u-s-jobs/#49b4176e113a
    Kull, Steven et. al., “Globalization and Trade: A Study of American Attitudes,” Program for Public
    Consultation, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland,
    http://www.publicconsultation.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Globalization_Report.pdf
    Kwong, Matt, “Trump sets a risky precedent with Turkey by imposing “weaponized” sanctions,” CBC,
    11 August 2018 https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-weaponized-sanctions-trend-world-
    leaders-1.4781870
    Lynch, David J., and Daimian Paletta, “Trump’s fluid approach to national and economic security is
    leaving his allies baffled,” The Washington Post, 28 May 2018,
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trumps-fluid-approach-to-national-and-
    economic-security-is-leaving-his-allies-baffled/2018/05/28/b08c5908-5f95-11e8-9ee3-
    49d6d4814c4c_story.html?utm_term=.4aef549338c4
    Lynch David J. and Damian Paletta, “Trump plans to impose metal tariffs on closest U.S. allies,”
    The Washington Post, 30 May 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/us-
    europe-tries-strain-over-trumps-trade-war-online-privacy-dispute/2018/05/30/7da8808e-
    6422-11e8-a69c-b944de66d9e7_story.html?utm_term=.3476ea9d1fb5
    May Theresa, “The global trading system works when we all play by the rules,” Financial Times, 30
    January 2018 https://www.ft.com/content/17209dce-05b3-11e8-9e12-af73e8db3c71
    Miller, Claire Cain, “The Long-Term jobs Killer is not China. It’s Automation,” The New York Times,
    21 December 2016,
    https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/21/upshot/the-long-term-jobs-killer-is-not-china-its-
    automation.html
    Mullen, Jethro, “NAFTA; Trump plays a risky game with $1.2 trillion in trade,” CNN Money, 27 April
    2017.
    OECD, “Making Trade Work for All,” May 2017
    OECD, “Towards Better Trade policies,” OECD, 2018
    OECD, “Global Competency for an inclusive world”,
    https://www.oecd.org/education/Global-competency-for-an-inclusive-world.pdf
    Peel, Michael, “EU unveils measures to counter U.S. Sanctions,” Financial Times, 20 May 2018.
    “Polls Show Free Trade support is growing,“ Hoosier Ag Today, 27 February 2017
    https://www.hoosieragtoday.com/poll-shows-free-trade-support-is-growing/.
    Porter, Eduardo, “Trump’s Trade Endgame could be the undoing of global rules,” The New York
    Times, 31 October 2017.
    Samson, Adam, “German exports, imports hit record in high in 2017,” Financial Times, 8 February
    2018.
    Stiglitz, Joseph E. and Charlton, Andrew, 2005, “Fair Trade for All, How Trade Can Promote
    Development”, Oxford University Press, 2005.
    174 ESCTER 18 E fin
    23
    Stokes, Bruce, “Views of NAFTA less positive-and more partisan in U.S. than in Canada and
    Mexico,” FACTANK, Pew Research Center, 9 May 2017,
    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/09/views-of-nafta-less-positive-and-more-
    partisan-in-u-s-than-in-canada-and-mexico/
    Swanson, Ana, “White House to impose Metal Tariffs on Europe, Canada and Mexico, Risking
    Retaliation,” The New York Times, 31 May 2018.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/31/us/politics/trump-aluminum-steel-
    tariffs.html?&hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-
    column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
    Swanson, Ana and Jack Ewing, “Trump’s Trade Truce With Europe Has a Familiar Fee: It Mirrors
    Obama’s Path,” The New York Times, 26 July 2018,
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/26/us/politics/trump-trade-european-union.html
    Swanson, Ana and Jim Tankersley, “Mexico hits U.S. with Tariffs, Escalating Global Trade
    Tensions,”The New York Times, 5 June 2018,
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/05/us/politics/trump-trade-canada-mexico-
    nafta.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-
    column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
    Time Magazine, “President Trump signs Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum and Promises Even More to
    Come,” 8 March 2018,
    http://time.com/5192148/donald-trump-announces-tariffs-on-steel-aluminum/
    Tan, Ho, “Why the U.S. and China Need a Production Rebalance,” Foreign Affairs, 19 May 2017.
    Tankersley, Jim, “Steel Giants With Ties to Trump Officials Block Tariff Relief for Hundreds of Firms,”
    New York Times, 5 August, 2018.
    Tully, Shawn “Why America’s About to pivot from Cheering the Economy to Fearing the Debt,”
    Fortune, 9 February 2018.
    Turak, Natasha, “Trumps tariff threat on European cars could spell big trouble for Germany,” CNBC,
    5 March 2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/05/trumps-tariff-threat-on-european-cars-
    could-spell-big-trouble-for-germany.html
    United States Census “Trade in goods with the European Union,” https://www.census.gov/foreign-
    trade/balance/c0003.html
    YouGov, “Americans and Europeans ambivalent about free trade”,
    https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/04/20/americans-and-europeans-ambivalent-free-trade/
    Wasson Erik and Sarah McGregor, “U.S. Deficit to Surpass $1 Trillion Two Years Ahead of the
    Estimates, CBO Says,” Bloomberg, 9 April 2018,
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-09/u-s-budget-deficit-to-balloon-to-1-
    trillion-by-2020-cbo-says
    Watson, Kathyrn, “Paul Ryan breaks with Trump on tariffs,” CBS News, 31 May 2018,
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/paul-ryan-breaks-with-trump-on-tariffs/
    Webber, Jude, et. al., “Mexico retaliates with tariffs on US imports,” Financial Times, 6 June 2018.
    Wharton, University of Pennsyvania, “Bilateral or Multilateral: Which Trade Partnerships Work Best?"
    Knowledge@Wharton, Apr 27, 2017 http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/bilateral-
    multilateral-trade-partnerships-work-best/
    World Economic Forum, Global Risk Report 2018, https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-
    report-2018
    ______________________
    ECONOMICS AND SECURITY
    COMMITTEE (ESC)
    Sub-Committee on Transition and
    Development (ESCTD)
    THE ENERGY SECURITY
    CHALLENGE IN CENTRAL
    AND EASTERN EUROPE
    Report
    by Ausrine ARMONAITE (Lithuania)
    Rapporteur
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin | Original: English | 17 November 2018
    .
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    I. INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................1
    II. VULNERABILITIES.....................................................................................................3
    III. NORD STREAM 2.......................................................................................................5
    IV. OLD INFRASTRUCTURE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE ..........................8
    V. ADAPTING TO THE NEW CLIMATE AGENDA........................................................10
    VI. CORRUPTION, ENERGY AND THE ENERGY SECURITY CHALLENGE...............11
    VII. THE UKRAINE CASE................................................................................................12
    VIII. SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE.....................................................................................14
    IX. CONCLUSION ..........................................................................................................16
    BIBLIOGRAPHY........................................................................................................19
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    1
    I. INTRODUCTION
    1. Broadly defined, energy security is a condition linking the capacity of a country to sustain its
    vital national interests with the availability of the energy resources needed to fulfil that fundamental
    mission. In general terms, in a country enjoying a high degree of security, the flow of energy will be
    uninterrupted and affordable. Increasingly, the definition includes broader considerations, such as
    environmental sustainability and the capacity of the system to respond with flexibility to sudden
    imbalances between energy supply and demand. It also, of course, factors in more traditional
    security considerations and in this manner, it must gauge the resilience of the energy system as a
    whole in the face of possible external attack from direct military operations or emerging forms of
    offensive operations such as cyberattacks.
    2. The global energy outlook has evolved substantially over the last decade, and the countries of
    Central and Eastern Europe have been swept up in these changes. Central and Eastern Europe’s
    dependence on Russian gas was a legacy of Cold War industrial and commercial structures that
    survived both the fall of the Berlin Wall and the integration of some of the countries of the region into
    Euro-Atlantic institutions. That infrastructure nevertheless accorded Russian companies a powerful
    position in those energy markets. Consequently, a company such as Russia’s Gazprom was able to
    impose long-term contracts on clients that had few other immediate energy options. Over time, the
    cost of this dependence became more apparent, particularly in the wake of two Russian-Ukrainian
    energy disputes in 2006 and 2009 that led to supply disruptions in several European countries.
    Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and its aggression in Eastern Ukraine have further exposed
    this set of vulnerabilities.
    3. Those seminal events were a wake-up call for Europe and have helped raise awareness about
    the risks of overdependence on a single energy supplier. These supply disruptions were politically
    inspired. They also reflected the emergence of a more assertive Russia with a clear set of grievances
    about the existing European security and political order and a willingness to act to upend that order.
    Russia’s energy endowments provided it with a powerful lever to express this dissent. It did not have
    to use this leverage often to demonstrate its potential power. Indeed, Russia has generally been a
    reliable supplier of energy to the continent, in part, because oil and gas exports are its most important
    source of income. But this made the events of 2006 and 2009 all the more shocking as they seemed
    to demonstrate that Russia was willing to sacrifice its immediate commercial reputation for
    geopolitical purposes.
    4. One of the primary upshots of those Russian generated shocks has been a major European
    push to diversify energy supplies in order to reduce dependence on Russia. Russian aggression, for
    example, inspired the European Commission to investigate the opaque pricing of Russia’s gas
    monopoly. It also certainly factored into the drafting of the EU’s Third Energy Package, which has
    sought to liberalise Europe’s energy sector, challenge Russia’s monopolistic commodity pricing and
    build resilience and new linkages into the energy infrastructure networks of Europe. Doing so would
    make it easier to move energy in multiple directions throughout the continent should Russia again
    cut off or threaten to cut off energy supplies. The European Commission has also demanded more
    transparency, openness, and competition in European oil, gas, and electricity markets, not only
    because the lack of competition and opaque decision making have given Russia leeway to use its
    energy as a weapon, but also because doing so simply made economic sense.
    5. The EU now has clarified a set of long-term goals to diversify the sources of gas used on the
    continent, to expand the use of renewable energy, to increase energy efficiency, and to develop a
    super grid that would help Europe tap into solar power from the south and wind power from the north.
    Among other things, this would require the development of smart grids at local distribution points
    that would help reduce peaks in electricity demand (White, 2015).
    6. Building greater energy security in Europe demands diverse approaches across a range of
    sectors. The EU’s Energy Union incorporates a number of sectors including energy, research and
    innovation, transport, foreign policy, regional and neighbourhood policy, the environment, trade and
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    2
    agriculture in a comprehensive package to ensure a broad conception of European energy security,
    including environmental considerations. The EU has made the achievement of greater
    interconnectivity of gas and electricity grids a central goal and sees this as a key vehicle for lowering
    dependence on Russian gas and encouraging the diversification of energy sources, including an
    important transition into renewables. It also seeks to ensure greater energy efficiency and a fair deal
    for energy consumers. By 2020, the goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20%, increase
    the share of renewable energy in the energy mix to 20%, bolster efficiency by 20%, and achieve an
    interconnection level of 10%. By 2030, these figures ambitiously rise to a 40% reduction of
    greenhouse gas emission, an increase to 27% of the energy mix from renewable energy, a
    30% increase in energy efficiency and an interconnection level of 15%.
    7. Progress has been made on many of these fronts. In 2015, for example, renewable use saved
    an estimated EUR 16 billion in fossil fuel imports. While the European economy grew in 2016,
    greenhouse emissions fell, except in the transport sector, suggesting a delinkage between growth
    and energy use (European Commission, 23 November 2017).
    8. Energy security in Central and Eastern Europe is thus shaped by a multiplicity of factors, some
    of which seem distant or not entirely consequential in regional terms. The massive expansion of the
    oil and gas sectors in North America, for example, is having a profound impact on energy markets
    in Europe, even if, for example, US oil and gas are generally not shipped directly to Europe. But the
    so-called fracking revolution has propelled the United States into a new role as the world’s “swing
    producer”. This has essentially helped place a lower ceiling on global oil prices and is also having
    an impact on gas prices, even if Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is generally more expensive than
    natural gas shipped by pipeline. Of course, evolving prices depend on a number of factors, including
    production efficiency and falling extraction costs. If oil and gas prices rise quickly, US production,
    including non-conventional energy like hydro-fracked gas and oil, will also increase, and these new
    markets are helping to check price hikes.
    9. The US gas and oil sector has made significant efficiency gains due to technological advances
    in hydro-fracking and to a recent market shake-out which drove world prices downward. The
    Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) had expected those price falls to force
    many small American producers out of business. While a shake-out did occur, those firms that
    survived the price falls emerged significantly stronger and more competitive. Highly efficient oil and
    gas production in the US market means that shale gas and oil are flowing into the market at lower
    prices than many had originally imagined. Consequently, the United States has now surpassed
    Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer and is second only to Russia. US gas production is
    also soaring. While 15 years ago the expectation was that US imports of gas would rise inexorably,
    it is now exporting gas through several LNG terminals originally designed to receive gas and now
    refitted to export it. Several new ports are under construction and significant exports of LNG from
    Louisiana and Texas have helped create a gas glut that has exercised strong downward pressure
    on gas prices around the world. The US entry into this market will have a long-term impact on world
    markets and has the potential to weaken Russia’s market leverage in Europe if European and
    American policymakers choose to encourage supply diversification. Low gas prices are also helping
    it to replace coal as a fuel for electricity generation in some European countries, thereby helping to
    move Europe towards its announced carbon reduction goals (Kraussoct, 2017). Finally, the growing
    reliance on LNG will only increase the strategic importance of defending the sea lines of
    communication.
    10. Although gas is traditionally a segmented local market, the emergence of a vibrant and growing
    LNG business and new port and pipeline infrastructure have made LNG an increasingly globally
    arbitraged and fungible commodity. In other words, gas prices can no longer be set in local markets
    alone, particularly as new LNG producers develop the capacity to move gas to distant markets due
    to the construction of new pipeline networks. Lithuania’s new LNG reception facility in Klaipeda, for
    example, has helped that country dramatically reduce its dependence on Russian gas and should
    weaken Russia’s capacity to set prices in that region. The Lithuanian facilities have a total storage
    capacity of 170,000 cubic metres, one jetty and a gasification capacity of 4 billion cubic metres. For
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    3
    its part, Poland opened the Swinoujscie LNG terminal in 2015. Its initial regasification capacity is
    5 billion cubic metres per annum, and with the construction of a third tank, its capacity is due to
    expand to 7.5 billion cubic metres per annum, which would help the country meet roughly 50% of its
    annual gas demand. These kinds of projects are clearly of great strategic value to the region. They
    lower Russian market leverage and, by extension, the Kremlin’s potential capacity to deploy that
    economic weight for non-commercial ends.
    11. Russia, in turn, has had no choice but to respond to these changes. It is no longer positioned
    to impose long-term fixed price contracts on its clients. These clients will increasingly have other
    options at hand and while Russian gas remains important and relatively cheap, there are now market
    forces that compel Russia to be more accommodating to its clients. As long as Russia’s clients have
    other options, its leverage will be limited – this is precisely why so many Eastern European countries
    are concerned about the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) project (see below). Europe’s leverage will also rise
    with the construction of more two-way pipelines that allow gas to be moved in two directions rather
    than in a unidirectional fashion. Countries with access to flexible lines have other import options
    should energy supplies be cut in one direction.
    12. One potentially important consequence of these market changes is that if Russia fails to
    construct a more diversified economy, it will remain vulnerable to falling oil and gas prices. The state
    budget is highly dependent on foreign exchange earnings generated through energy sales. One
    would think that this vulnerability would encourage the Kremlin to engage in a degree of economic if
    not political reform. But that hardly seems likely, given the level of corruption in the state and the
    resistance to change this engenders. It is unfortunately more likely that low energy prices will
    encourage Russia to adopt more aggressive postures to compensate for economic weakness and
    to distract public attention from the fact that Russia’s leadership has failed to better prepare the
    country for rapidly evolving global markets in the 21st
    century. Europe thus must prepare for an
    adversarial relationship no matter which way prices move.
    II. VULNERABILITIES
    13. Central and Eastern Europe confront two potential energy vulnerabilities: the need for secure
    provision and inadequate infrastructure to ensure that supply. These vulnerabilities are often linked,
    for example when existing infrastructure configurations translate into undesirable levels of energy
    dependence on any single supplier, particularly when that supplier is inclined to exploit that leverage
    diplomatically. Indeed, when considering energy security in Central and Eastern Europe, one must
    specifically take into account how Russia has deployed its energy endowments as an instrument of
    national power. Imported Russian gas has undoubtedly sustained domestic consumption in Eastern
    Europe, but the cost of overreliance on Russian energy is potentially substantial as it leaves those
    countries vulnerable to political suasion.
    14. Concerns about this vulnerability have inspired a push for energy supply diversification. Thus,
    a country such as Lithuania, which until recently met all of its gas needs with imports from Russia,
    has made a concerted effort to diversify its sources of energy. The LNG facility in Klaipeda now
    allows Lithuania to source gas from suppliers around the world. Although LNG is typically more
    expensive than Russian gas, the difference in price should be considered a security premium that
    many countries might judge well worth paying. Moreover, as suggested above, the price of LNG has
    fallen as the supply grows. Finally, importing LNG from countries like Qatar and the United States
    does not exclude purchasing energy from Russia. It simply means that there are increasingly other
    options on the table should supply disruptions ever take place – and their very existence is likely to
    discourage such disruptions.
    15. It is also important to consider ownership patterns when assessing the security component of
    energy use. In many countries, energy firms take on the character of monopolistic or oligopolistic
    firms with all the problems and inefficiencies those structures generate. These include price-setting
    behaviour, resistance to innovation, predatory behaviour toward potential competitors and the
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    4
    exercise of untoward and ultimately undemocratic political influence. If national security in the West
    is about defending democratic values, all of these behaviours might constitute a threat. There is a
    myriad of cases in which national energy giants promote policies that could be seen as undermining
    national security interests and democratic governance.
    16. Gazprom is Russia’s largest energy-exporting company. It has been essentially state-owned
    since 2005, by which time the Russian state had purchased more than 50% of the company’s shares
    (BBC, 2005; Moore, 2005). Since then, Gazprom has shouldered the dual mission of generating
    profits for its primary shareholder and serving the broader strategic interests of the Kremlin. That
    company alone underwrites 13% of the state budget. It is thus burdened with functions that transcend
    Western notions of profit maximisation and normal corporate responsibility. Not surprisingly, the
    two missions are not always easily accommodated, particularly as clients and partners need to factor
    in the potential that Gazprom might be instrumentalised for the Kremlin’s purposes. This dynamic
    adds a degree of risk to doing business with Gazprom and other Russian energy firms (Polak, 2017).
    These firms generate huge revenues for the Russian state, which, in turn, have been used to
    underwrite an array of state-led activities that are antithetical to Western interests. These include
    election interference in Western countries, provocative military deployments, cyberattacks, the
    occupation of Crimea and the conflict in Eastern Ukraine.
    17. Indeed, since 2005, Russia has visibly deployed its energy resources to achieve political and
    strategic ambitions as defined by the Kremlin. Russian energy revenues, for example, directly
    financed pro-Russian foreign leaders like Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine and Alexander Lukashenko
    in Belarus. They also helped underwrite national election campaigns in both countries in the
    mid-2000s. Such funding is strategically consequential and has obviously generated a kind of
    political debt toward the Kremlin. While Viktor Yanukovych is no longer in power in Ukraine,
    Alexander Lukashenko continues to dominate Belarusian politics and has essentially transformed
    his country into a Russian protectorate.
    18. Russia has also deployed its energy power in less apparent ways even in Western countries,
    for example, providing gas preferential rates with the expectation that the political elite in recipient
    countries will adopt more accommodating positions with regard to Russia even in times of diplomatic
    tension. This dynamic probably shaped the approach of several Western countries that opposed
    strong sanctions against Russia following the Crimea invasion (Reuters, 2014). While Russian gas
    and oil endowments have proven a particularly powerful source of political and diplomatic leverage,
    Russia’s significant holdings of nuclear fuel can also serve a similar purpose. Russia is a primary
    provider of natural uranium to Finland, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary
    (Buchan, 2014). It also gains potential leverage through its electrical grid system, upon which several
    Western or Western-oriented countries still rely.
    19. Possible cyberattacks on sophisticated grids moving renewable energy pose another set of
    challenges, although this is an issue of concern for all energy industries. But as distribution networks
    grow “smarter” and more sophisticated, as they must do to make renewable energy a viable pillar of
    Western energy strategy, they will become ever more vulnerable to cyberattacks. Indeed, they may
    be particularly vulnerable, not only as they require highly sophisticated industrial control systems,
    advanced distribution networks and advanced storage solutions, but also because they pose a direct
    threat to Russia insofar as they lower its market and diplomatic leverage over the West. Wind farms
    are linked by highly sophisticated control systems that often tie into computer systems designed for
    efficiency and not for security as such.
    20. In 2013, for example, hackers infected an array of renewable energy facilities and undermined
    critical control systems. In Ukraine, malware struck the control system of an electricity distribution
    network, leaving nearly a quarter of a million customers without power (Ruhle and Trakimavicius,
    2017). US officials recently revealed that malware of Russian origin has been discovered embedded
    in a range of US power plants. The FBI characterised the attack as “a multi-stage intrusion campaign
    by Russian government cyber actors who targeted small commercial facility networks where they
    staged malware, conducted spear phishing and gained remote access into energy sector networks”
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    5
    (Borger, 2018). These systems need to be built with both efficiency and security in mind, otherwise
    they become vulnerable to attacks with potentially devastating and life-threatening consequences.
    21. It is also important to consider traditional military threats to critical infrastructure including
    power plants, pipelines, and energy storage facilities. These threats could emanate both from
    traditional military forces and from terrorist actors who tend to focus on asymmetrical tactics in which
    single attacks can have wide-spread and significant impacts. Although NATO members are
    responsible for protecting critical infrastructure, cooperation both within the Alliance and with partner
    countries is essential for intelligence sharing about potential threats, crisis response and
    management, cooperative security training and sorting through collective defence implications.
    NATO has been dealing with this challenge and has worked on enhancing resilience, preparedness,
    response and recovery, the exchange of information, training and exercise.
    III. NORD STREAM 2
    22. Construction of the offshore natural gas pipeline known today as Nord Stream 1 was started
    in 2006 and completed in 2011. The 1,222km line begins in Vyborg in Russia, runs to Greifswald in
    Germany, and is owned and operated by Nord Stream AG, of which Gazprom holds 51% of the
    shares. It has an annual capacity of 55 billion cubic metres, and when the follow-on Nord Stream 2
    project is completed, its capacity will double to 110 billion cubic metres by 2019. As a result of current
    EU restrictions on Gazprom, however, only 22.5 billion cubic metres of Nord Stream’s capacity are
    currently used. This has raised questions about the viability of Nord Stream 2 in addition to strong
    strategic concerns harboured by a number of NATO member countries.
    23. Indeed, the controversial Nord Stream 2 project is rife with national security implications,
    although how affected countries judge the programme varies considerably. The proposed pipeline
    would run alongside the existing pipeline and would likely be operational by 2020. The cost of the
    1,200km (746 mile) pipeline has been estimated at EUR 9.5 billion (USD 10.3 billion) and
    construction is scheduled to begin in 2018 (Deutsche Welle, 2018).
    24. The controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline project has illustrated how energy security
    calculations are now shaping investment decisions in Europe and how divisive these are becoming.
    The president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, has stated that the pipeline is not in Europe’s
    interest, and nine EU member governments have claimed that the proposed pipeline violates EU
    rules that prohibit gas companies from owning delivery infrastructure. Moreover, they argue, the
    pipeline would not be made available to other suppliers. That project would also allow Russia to
    bypass Ukraine and ship gas directly to Western Europe, thereby driving a wedge between Western
    Europe and Ukraine (Rivkin and Zuzul, 2018). This prospect has triggered serious and high-stakes
    infighting among European states, specifically pitting a number of Central and Eastern European
    states (mainly Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, and the Baltic
    states), which perceive this particular project as part of a Russian divide and conquer strategy,
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    6
    against Germany, which has characterised the arrangement in more economic terms. Poland’s
    authorities responsible for competition policy recently initiated proceedings against six European
    energy companies, including Gazprom, claiming that they had entered agreements to finance Nord
    Stream 2 without Poland’s consent (The Economist Intelligence Unit, 2018). The fact that the project
    has fomented such discord among Allied states, however, can already be understood as a win for
    the Kremlin. Undermining Western solidarity, of course, remains a primary strategic ambition of the
    Kremlin, and Russian-sponsored energy projects have proven a remarkably effective way for it to
    achieve these ends.
    25. Proponents of the project in Germany see it as bolstering national energy security, insofar as
    it will provide direct access to plentiful and cheap Russian gas while eliminating the possibility that
    Russian-Ukrainian tensions might affect its own energy supplies (a significant share of Russian gas
    is now shipped to Europe across Ukraine). Several Central and Eastern European countries as well
    as Sweden, Denmark and the European Commission, however, argue that the project diminishes
    energy security by making the European Union, and particularly its largest gas importer Germany,
    more dependent on Gazprom for gas supplies and by concentrating the delivery of up to 80% of
    imported gas through one pipeline. This has struck a blow to European solidarity by pitting German
    energy policy against the security interests of the Baltic and Nordic states and Poland, all of which
    strongly oppose the project. Ukraine is also naturally opposed to a pipeline that would bypass its
    own pipeline infrastructure and thus deprive it of a critical source of national economy.
    26. Some of these concerns appear to be registering in Germany, where Chancellor
    Angela Merkel recently acknowledged widespread concerns on the "political" and "strategic" aspects
    of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. In April she said that the Nord Stream 2 project is not possible
    without clarification of how Ukraine's transit role can continue, declaring: “From this you can already
    see that this is not just an economic project, but that, of course, political factors must also be taken
    into account." At a summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in May, Chancellor Merkel
    sought assurances that Russia would continue to export gas through Ukraine’s pipelines even after
    Nord Stream 2 becomes operational. President Putin has indicated that he would be willing to do so
    if these shipments “make economic sense” – which hardly represents an iron-clad promise. He is
    clearly leaving himself a great deal of wiggle room on the matter, and it remains to be seen if this will
    be enough to convince sceptics of Mr Putin’s good intentions (Chazan, 2018).
    27. The European Commission has also raised specific concerns about Nord Stream 2. The
    European Commission’s vice president for Energy Union, Maros Sefcovic, for example, has argued
    that “creating a well-diversified and competitive gas market is a priority of the EU’s energy security
    and Energy Union strategy […] NS2 does not contribute to the Energy Union’s objectives. If the
    pipeline is nevertheless built, the least we have to do is to make sure that it will be
    operated transparently and in line with the main EU energy market rules” (Global Risk Insights,
    2017).
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    7
    28. The European Commission argues that the proposed pipeline violates current European
    energy rules as outlined in the Third Energy Package. Those rules forbid energy companies from
    holding majority shares in both supply and distribution assets. Moreover, competitors must also have
    access to those pipelines to thwart the emergence of monopolistic and oligopolistic suppliers.
    German authorities have rejected this interpretation and claim that the proposed project complies
    with current EU law. In fact, there has been a legal void on rules governing pipelines from outside of
    the Union, and last year the Commission asked the Council of the EU for a mandate to close this
    loophole. In a subsequent proposed amendment, the Commission called for the equal application of
    the Third Energy Package’s rules to all pipelines, including NS2, so that the following conditions
    would have to be met: ownership unbundling (requiring pipelines not be owned directly by gas
    suppliers); non-discriminatory tariffs; third party access; and transparency (European Commission,
    8 November 2017).
    29. The European Commission wants a more competitive, open and integrated energy market
    operating entirely under EU rules that apply to all gas pipelines to and from third countries. Those
    pipelines should be subject to the same rules and be equally transparent. The Commission is
    seeking to eliminate conflicts of interest between infrastructure operators and gas suppliers, and it
    wants guarantees that tariff setting will be non-discriminatory. Ideally, Europe would negotiate as a
    block on gas prices and prevent suppliers from pursuing divide and conquer strategies. However, it
    also agreed to grant existing cross-border pipelines certain derogations on existing rules on a case
    by case basis, if such derogations are not detrimental to competition or security of supply. According
    to many independent observers, however, the proposed Nord Stream 2 project currently does not
    meet these criteria as it is majority-owned by the supplier Gazprom. Additionally, because it is not
    an existing pipeline, it does not appear to qualify for these derogations.
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    8
    30. Concerns about the NS2 project are not only European. In meetings in Warsaw in January
    2018, then US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson characterised the proposed pipeline as a threat to
    Europe’s security interests (Reuters, 2018). US President Donald Trump has echoed these
    concerns. The United States Congress has also expressed concerns about the Nord Stream 2
    project and specifically included pipelines projects in sanctions passed last year. These sanctions
    were formally related to the Russian invasion of Crimea, but they were also doubtlessly shaped by
    concerns about Russian interference in US elections. The bill signed by President Trump leaves the
    decision to apply these sanctions to the president and requires that he do so in consultation with
    European Allies. This too constitutes a rather large loophole. US officials have indicated that the five
    European energy companies that are financing the Nord Stream 2 project could face sanctions and
    have offered to make more expensive US LNG available as an alternative energy source (Foy and
    Buck, 2018). Some supporters of the project have claimed that the US is simply opposing a project
    that would threaten its own future exports of LNG to Europe. But that hardly appears to have been
    a factor in US political deliberations. Most market analysts believe that the greatest potential market
    for US LNG is Asia, not Europe, although the United States will undoubtedly be shipping more to
    Europe in the future as its own LNG capacity increases (Gawlikowska-Fyk and Wisniewski, 2017).
    Poland, for example, has agreed to purchase LNG from the United States and will not renew a
    contract with Gazprom that expires in 2022. US LNG imports to Europe rose 22% in 2017 and are
    likely to continue growing (Rivkin and Zuzul, 2018).
    31. The Nord Stream 2 issue has become particularly delicate in German politics and was the
    subject of tough discussions in the run-up to the formation of the country’s new governing coalition
    there. Some in Germany have cast the issue as pitting those wanting cheap energy against those
    supporting solidarity with more vulnerable Allies in the Baltic states. Denmark has also decided that
    it will make approval of any energy pipeline projects contingent not only on standard criteria for such
    projects, but also on a national security assessment. Denmark alone would not be able to put a stop
    to the proposed project, although it could block the pipeline from running through its territorial waters.
    IV. OLD INFRASTRUCTURE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE
    32. It is hard to generalise about Central and Eastern European energy markets as they differ in
    size and energy mix. Poland and the Czech Republic rely heavily on coal, Hungary uses a high
    percentage of nuclear power and Slovakia is more balanced. All import significant, though varying,
    amounts of gas, and the degree of dependence on Russian gas varies considerably throughout the
    region. Estonia and Romania import relatively little energy due to oil and gas reserves, while Slovakia
    and Hungary need to import 60% of their energy. Lithuania is the worst off in this regard as 78% of
    its domestic demand is met with imports (CEEP, 2016).
    33. Deficiencies in Central and Eastern Europe’s energy infrastructure have exacerbated strategic
    energy vulnerabilities in Europe. The lack of interconnecting links, north-south connections and
    two-way pipelines poses a particularly acute problem. Three of the four major pipelines in Europe
    flow east to west: the Brotherhood (Russia-Ukraine-Slovakia-the Czech Republic with subsections
    from Ukraine to Hungary), Yamal-Europe (Russia-Belarus-Poland-Germany) and Trans-Balkan
    (Russia-Ukraine-the Republic of Moldova-Romania-Bulgaria) pipelines. Central and Eastern Europe
    also lack sufficient gas storage facilities beyond those in Ukraine, and there is no important hub for
    trading gas—something that further inhibits competition. Although a number of steps have been
    taken to address the challenge in recent years, problems persist. There are, for example, no
    connecting lines between Poland and Slovakia or Poland and Lithuania, and several connections
    still flow in only one direction, such as the pipelines between Croatia and Hungary or Romania and
    Hungary (CEEP, 2016). The Baltic states remain relatively isolated in energy terms, although
    Lithuania will build a gas link to Poland. Poland has introduced reverse flows on the Yamal pipeline
    linking it to Germany, which would allow it to bring gas from Germany if needed. It is also
    championing the Northern Gate project, which should bring 10 billion cubic metres per annum of
    Norwegian gas to Poland and other Central European and Baltic countries by 2022 if it goes ahead
    (Gotev, 2016). This would provide a secure alternative to Russian gas from Nord Stream 2. The
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    9
    Czechs and Slovaks have also introduced reverse flows on the Brotherhood pipeline, while Hungary
    has built new connections with Croatia, Romania and Slovakia. Slovakia is pushing for the so-called
    Eastring pipeline, which would link it to Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, which would tie Western
    gas hubs to the Balkans (CEEP, 2016). In the event of disruptions to the supply of gas from Russia,
    two-way pipelines would add far greater resilience to the system by allowing partner countries to
    ship gas to countries undergoing supply shocks.
    34. Energy infrastructure problems are not limited to the gas sector, and some do not directly
    involve matters related to dependence on Russia. A number of electricity grids in Central and Eastern
    Europe are old and outdated, cannot cope with renewable energy and suffer uncontrolled loop flows.
    The Baltic region, for example, is still linked to the IPS/UPS electrical power grid inherited from the
    Soviet Union (CEEP, 2016). This has led to a problem of overcharging during times of high electricity
    usage, which heightens the risk of blackouts as far away as Poland and the Czech Republic. There
    are plans to make this system synchronous with the Continental European system (European
    Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, ENTSO-E) although significant
    investments will be needed to make this link-up feasible. Full integration is a priority for the Baltic
    states, which are not comfortable relying on the IPS/UPS system that includes both the Russian and
    Belarusian electricity grids. Partial remedies were achieved through Estlink 1 and 2, which tied
    Estonia into the Finnish grid, the LitPol link between Lithuania and Poland and the NordBalt line
    between Sweden and Lithuania (Joint Research Centre, 2018). Lithuania is also deeply concerned
    about a huge nuclear power plant the Russians are building in Belarus, 50 km from Vilnius, that fails
    to meet basic International Energy Agency (IEA) standards. The Lithuanian government fears the
    plant represents an effort by Moscow to dominate the region’s electrical market for both economic
    and strategic purposes. Alexander Lukashenko essentially confirmed this when he referred to the
    nuclear plant as “a fishbone in the throats of the European Union and the Baltic states” that they
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    10
    would not be able to remove. Russia’s Rosatom plans to build 19 new reactors around the world,
    including in Hungary, Finland, and Turkey (Standish, 2017).
    Electrical Connections in the Baltic Region
    35. Latvia used its Presidency of the European Union to advocate for more grid connections and
    to build a genuine single European energy market. The goal was to make energy suppliers more
    secure and member countries less dependent on Russia. In practical terms, this meant setting a
    goal to integrate the Baltics into the European Network by 2025. It is worth noting that Russia has
    generally been a reliable energy supplier in the region and that leaving the IPS/UPS system, in which
    Russia controls frequencies and balances the grid, will cost billions of euros. The links between
    Lithuania and Poland, and Sweden and Lithuania provide some resilience but do not resolve the
    fundamental electricity vulnerabilities of the region (White, 2015).
    V. ADAPTING TO THE NEW CLIMATE AGENDA
    36. The climate change agenda offers both challenges and opportunities to Central and Eastern
    European countries. Global climate change represents a key strategic challenge to Europe, and
    concern about this man-made phenomenon is already shaping interactions among allies and trading
    partners (Raines and Tomlinson, 2016). Although there are areas in which immediate energy
    security ambitions are clashing with longer term climate goals—the use of domestically produced
    brown coal comes to mind here—there are also areas of overlap (Buchan, 2014).
    37. The growing share of renewables in the overall energy mix provides an illustration of the latter
    case. Indeed, one of the most attractive elements of emerging renewable energy technologies is not
    only that renewable energy is relatively clean, but also that it can lower energy dependence on
    energy-supplying countries that are either unstable or actively engaged in efforts to destabilise the
    international order. Just as the explosive rise of the LNG industry, linked in part to the growth of
    hydro-fracking in North America, has created a new globally fungible energy commodity capable of
    undercutting Russia’s oligopolistic control of Central and Eastern European gas markets, so too is
    an ever more efficient renewable energy industry contributing to energy security in Europe. Over the
    past decade, renewable energy has risen from 15% to 30% of the electricity mix in the EU (Ruhle
    and Trakimavicius, 2017).
    38. As is the case with rising LNG use, however, significant investments are needed to increase
    the share of renewables in the broader energy mix. A change in traditional mindsets is also required,
    as there remains a great deal of scepticism about these technologies even as profits in the industry
    begin to soar. Germany and Denmark have both made large investments in renewable energy, and
    Germany recently achieved a milestone when, for a brief period of time, all of its electricity needs
    were met by renewable energy (NATO PA, 2018).
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    11
    39. A joint Dutch and German project to support renewable capacities through cross-border
    auctions reveals how sophisticated this market is becoming and the degree to which it is now subject
    to normal market price setting, which is helping it achieve serious efficiency gains. During one of
    these cross-border auctions for photovoltaic (PV) solar energy tenders, for example, PV tenders sold
    for record low prices. Wind power prices are also falling rapidly, and this renewable is growing
    increasingly competitive with traditional fuels for generating electricity. But serious bottlenecks
    remain, including the enduring problem of intermittency—in other words, coping with those periods
    when there is little wind or sun to power generators. Until that problem is resolved, and it likely will
    not be anytime soon, traditional energy sources will be required to backstop electricity networks.
    This obviously comes at a cost, as it demands that legacy systems remain on line even if the returns
    on investment in these systems plunge due to plentiful and ever cheaper renewables.
    40. The challenge for Central and Eastern Europe lies not so much in the technologies themselves
    as in the sheer costs of transitioning the economy to best deploy these technologies. Renewable
    energy cannot simply be run through existing energy infrastructure. It requires significant investment
    in new and smarter grids to move energy from windmills and solar farms to regions where insufficient
    power is being generated at any given moment. Even off-grid solutions, including home-generated
    power, require investment and regulatory reform. There are clear financial roadblocks to transitioning
    to these major systems, as well as strong political resistance from legacy energy firms and national
    monopolies that stand to lose from this kind of paradigmatic change.
    41. That said, if diversification is understood to contribute to energy security by reducing
    dependence on any single supplier, renewables will represent a key and ever more important
    element of that solution. Even if renewable energy prices are higher than carbon-based fuels—and
    their price is rapidly falling—there is nonetheless a security premium embedded in these prices. In
    other words, there are environmental and security benefits linked to the use of these energy sources
    over carbon-based fuels that are not fully reflected in their price. This is one reason many
    governments have elected to subsidise renewable energy use, and they have done so to facilitate
    the transition from so called 19th
    century carbon-based energy to 21st
    century renewables. This is no
    small undertaking. The transition will be very expensive and complex, and it will require critical
    public/private partnerships and investments to drive the industry forward. The potential security
    benefits are likely significant.
    42. There are also security benefits linked to the use of domestically produced coal, and this is an
    argument heard in several Central and Eastern European countries that currently produce coal and
    rely on its use. This is undoubtedly true insofar as domestic coal use can reduce dependence on
    Russian gas or Middle Eastern oil. But coal’s future is problematic given its rather dire environmental
    consequences. Although it will continue to be used, short of a breakthrough in dealing with the carbon
    emissions problem, its real costs may be prohibitively high for it to endure as a viable energy option
    for much of the region. This, however, is not a view shared in all EU countries. There is, for example,
    dissent from Poland, which is well-endowed with brown coal, the use of which it sees as critical to
    its own energy security.
    VI. CORRUPTION, ENERGY AND THE ENERGY SECURITY CHALLENGE
    43. Energy markets and the incomes they generate have long been both a source and target of
    corruption. The significant rents generated by the industry, the persistence of politically protected
    monopolies and oligopolies in the sector and the important role played by states create a welter of
    opportunities for those who would use those levers for self-dealing or for broader political purposes—
    all to the great disadvantage of energy consumers and public well-being. As a general rule, the less
    transparency and competition in the sector, the more opportunities for corruption. Those with access
    to the generation and distribution of energy and related industries are best positioned to monetise
    this access through corrupt practices or to translate this access into broader political leverage (Ruth,
    2002). Given the size and importance of the energy sector, when it is corrupted or used for influence
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    12
    peddling, it can have broad systemic implications with significant spill-over effects on the
    international system.
    44. There are myriad cases of corruption in Eastern and Central European states linked to the
    energy sector. Not surprisingly, many of these involve Russian companies and so-called middle men
    controlling prices and access to energy commodities (Aslund, 2010). The problem, of course, is not
    limited to Central and Eastern Europe, and there are many cases of energy-industry-driven
    corruption in Western Europe and North America (Kupchinsky, 2009).
    45. The corruption-energy nexus is particularly threatening to weak states and to those
    transitioning to democratic and market norms (Dempsey, 2013). Weak states are more vulnerable
    to penetration by external actors with significant resources and driven by a focused agenda. There
    have been myriad instances of corrupt relations between Gazprom and local oligarchs in Europe
    who have essentially been paid kickbacks in exchange for supporting favourable energy deals with
    Russian firms (Open Democracy Roundtable, 2017). These practices have long made it difficult to
    subject the energy sector to normal democratic scrutiny, and they have provided Russia with a key
    source of leverage in the domestic affairs of a number of European states. Moreover, this kind of
    corruption undermines open competition and limits investments in countries that need to attract
    foreign capital and stand to benefit from more open competition. Corruption has slowed the evolution
    of the energy sector in many countries, reduced competitiveness and raised costs to consumers and
    energy-dependent business alike. Bribery and kickbacks undermine the rule of law and public faith
    in democratic institutions and practices. There are countless incidents of Russian interference in the
    energy sectors of Ukraine, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria and in the Western
    Balkans (Dempsey, 2013). There are important cases of conflict of interest and ethical matters in
    which politically linked Westerners earn millions by pushing projects that actually weaken Western
    security. The risk here is that such lobbying, which has been apparent even in some of NATO’s
    leading countries, subverts the integrity of the democratic process and undermines faith in political
    systems that are so easily penetrated by actors whose intention is actually to undermine Western
    security and increase the vulnerability of Alliance members and partners (BBC, 2017).
    VII. THE UKRAINE CASE
    46. Energy corruption in Ukraine has been strategically consequential and terribly detrimental to
    the country and its citizens. Ukraine’s energy sector is rife with vulnerabilities. It is one of Europe’s
    least energy-efficient countries and is two to three times as energy intensive as neighbouring Poland
    and Slovakia. Although part of the problem relates to the legacy structures and practices of the Soviet
    Union, poor governance, political instability, corruption and conflict with Russia have all complicated
    efforts to address these structural problems. The energy sector accounts for 12.6% of GNP, but its
    costs are very high, and this engenders a misallocation of resources that would be far better invested
    in other industries. In this sense, the energy sector in Ukraine is as much a hindrance as it is a
    generator of economic activity. It is in dire need of reform, but political instability, a very poor
    regulatory system, corruption, war and isolation have all complicated that country’s energy
    transition—although some important reforms have been undertaken.
    47. The Maidan revolution, the Russian occupation of Crimea and Russia’s armed aggression
    against Ukraine have all shaped the country’s energy profile. After the Crimean invasion, Russia
    ended discounts on gas sold to Ukraine, which had once been used to compensate Ukraine for the
    use of the Russian naval base in Sevastopol. It also ended coal deliveries from Donbas, which is
    now occupied by pro-Russian militia. These changes collectively constituted a shock to Ukraine’s
    energy sector and have led to important changes including price liberalisation. The occupation of
    Crimea, the conflict in Eastern Ukraine and Russia’s militarisation of the northern Black Sea have
    resulted in the loss of valuable Ukrainian gas fields to Russia. They have also raised risk premia in
    the region, which some have argued might have been one of Russia’s goals in its aggression against
    Ukraine. This has discouraged investment in Ukraine’s gas sector and lowered its potential to provide
    Europe with an alternative to Russian gas (Barrasso, 2018). As a result, the sector remains
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    13
    underinvested in, its gas fields are underexploited, and its governance structures are inadequate to
    the needs of the country.
    48. Ukraine also hosts vital pipelines linking Russian gas to European markets. These pipelines
    have an annual capacity of 145 billion cubic metres and thus carry more gas than both Nord Stream
    pipelines combined. As mentioned above, new pipelines bypassing Ukraine threaten the Ukrainian
    transit business, although Ukraine also has substantial gas endowments itself. Gazprom has refused
    to adhere to both EU regulations and Ukrainian legislation that would apply these rules in a new
    transit agreement. Russia is also refusing to implement the Stockholm arbitration court’s decisions
    of 2017 and 2018.
    49. Tensions with Russia inspired Ukraine to join the Energy Community of Eastern and
    Southeastern European countries working to adopt the EU’s energy market legislation—although
    this has proven particularly daunting in Ukraine’s case given the power of those vested in the status
    quo. It also began to push for reverse flows of gas from Poland, Slovakia and Hungary in order to
    lessen its dependence on Russian gas. Whereas in 2013 Russia was the only supplier of gas
    imported into Ukraine, today Ukraine imports no gas from Russia. The introduction of reverse flow
    pipelines from Slovakia in 2014 allowed Ukraine to import gas from other suppliers. Production of its
    own gas rose and now meets three-fifths of national consumption. The country has a relatively large
    shale gas endowment, but its capacity to exploit those reserves remains limited and, again, the
    conflict with Russia as well as pervasive corruption impose a high-risk premium for foreign
    companies. Ukraine, however, remains committed to developing its conventional gas capacities.
    Both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the EU have strongly encouraged Ukraine to
    restructure this behemoth to introduce more competition in what are essentially rigged markets.
    50. There has been some good news, however. In July 2018 the Supervisory boards of Naftogaz
    and Main Gas Pipelines of Ukraine signed a Memorandum of Understanding that committed them
    to separate the production and transmission portions of Naftogaz—something the EU and the United
    States have strongly encouraged. This should help open up the Ukrainian market and could lower
    the risk of corruption in the business.
    51. Political resistance to these changes has been fierce as Naftogaz has become something of
    a cash cow for parts of the political class and oligarchs with a vested interest in the status quo.
    Currently, this state-owned company simply does not meet international standards of transparency,
    efficiency and accountability. It contains myriad conflicts of interest that impede reform and ultimately
    inflict heavy costs on Ukrainian taxpayers and energy consumers. But the political system at large
    also pays a price, as this company is at the centre of an array of murky dealings that undermine
    public faith in the rule of law.
    52. Naftogaz has also been engaged in a long dispute with Gazprom over previous contracts and
    distribution and transit issues. The ongoing case has held up the restructuring of Naftogaz – or, at
    the very least, is has provided a convenient excuse to delay these reforms. Russia clearly sees the
    Nord Stream 2 project as a way to circumnavigate this legal dispute while, in the larger sense,
    punishing Ukraine for its broader resistance to Russia’s regional ambitions. If Nord Stream 2 is built,
    Ukraine stands to lose EUR 2 billion a year in transit revenues (Antonenko et al., 2018). Ukraine
    thus has an interest in settling the dispute with Russia and reforming its energy industry governance
    structures so that it operates in a significantly more transparent and honest fashion and in a manner
    that fully meets European governance standards. The problem, of course, is that Russia is not at all
    likely to abandon its aggressive posture and has made it clear that it has a vested interest in
    destabilising Ukraine.
    53. Ukraine also needs to enhance energy efficiency to increase security. It managed to reduce
    gas consumption from 50.4 billion cubic metres in 2013 to 33.3 billion cubic metres in 2016, although
    this reduction was largely linked to the economic crisis and the fact that it has lost control of a large
    portion of its energy-intensive industrial base in the Donbas region, now controlled by pro-Russian
    militia groups. After reaching a credit agreement with the IMF, the government significantly reduced
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    14
    energy subsidies. Higher energy prices have naturally triggered both a reduction of consumption and
    an added incentive to increase energy savings, both at the household and municipal levels. It has
    also led to a degree of government savings, as the state-owned gas company, Naftogaz, was
    subsidising Russian gas for Ukrainian consumers. More vulnerable citizens now benefit from direct
    cash support to help pay for energy for home heating and cooking. This is more effective than simply
    lowering the cost of energy, as doing so reduces incentives to save energy. The government also
    passed a law requiring all households to have heat and hot water meters, which will provide critical
    information to consumers seeking to save money and energy. It will also embark on a building
    modernisation programme to introduce greater energy efficiency in the country’s building stock. All
    of this is essential but not sufficient as the government still spends more on wasted energy than on
    efficiency measures (Antonenko et al., 2018).
    54. Ukraine is one of the largest consumers of electricity in Europe. Many of its anthracite-
    powered plants are in the war zones of the east, but most of its capacity is in thermal power (24.5GW
    of Ukraine’s total power generation of 55.3GW). Nuclear power accounts for 13.8GW, hydro 5.9GW
    and renewables only 0.9GW. Problems of pricing, security, access to raw materials and low
    investment plague the industry. Coal-burning plants long relied on anthracite coal from the eastern
    regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, but shipments of that coal have stopped, and Ukraine has relied
    on imports from Russia. The government now intends to convert anthracite-burning plants to
    lower-grade bituminous coal use in order to lower this dependence. The country’s electricity
    infrastructure is aging and not up to European standards. Integration with Europe’s grid would require
    huge investments and would result in new pressures to meet European environmental standards.
    55. Ukraine’s current stock of power generating plants will soon have to be replaced. The
    government intends to expand the number of nuclear power plants in the country and is seeking to
    diversify its supply of nuclear fuels in order to become less dependent on Russian sources. It also
    has ambitions to raise the share of renewable energy in the national energy mix to 11% by 2020.
    But this will demand large investments at a time when the budget is extremely tight. Ukraine’s
    transmission lines are among the least reliable in Europe, as they are responsible for the loss of as
    much as 12% of generated electricity—a figure that is more than twice as high as the Organisation
    for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) average (Antonenko et al., 2018). Although
    the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has helped finance system
    upgrades, it is estimated that an investment of about EUR 5.1 billion is still needed. This will be
    essential if Ukraine is ever to integrate into the European grid as the government has indicated it
    hopes to do by 2035 (Logatskiy, 2017).
    56. Finally, in 2017 the Ukrainian government adopted a new Electricity Market Law that will be
    operative in 2019. It will introduce more open competition in electricity markets, including the freedom
    to buy and sell electricity, greater choice for consumers and third-party access to the grids. The goal
    has been to break up existing monopoly and monopsony power through greater competition. This is
    clearly a move in the right direction, but there is strong entrenched resistance to such reforms even
    though Ukraine’s system is in deep crisis and riddled with debt. The government continues to resist
    the idea of privatising key energy assets and this inspires a degree of pessimism as to how far the
    current reform effort can go.
    VIII. SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
    57. There are essentially three ways to move energy overland between Asia and Europe: through
    Russia, through Iran and through Azerbaijan. Given the unique strategic challenges posed by Iran
    and Russia, the relative strategic importance of Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus has increased
    because of the region’s energy endowment and of several important pipelines linking the Caspian to
    Europe. Because of the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the corridor is narrowed to
    95 kilometres. Currently three critical pipelines pass through this region: the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
    pipeline linking Azerbaijan to Turkey, the Baku-Supsa pipeline, which brings Azerbaijani oil to the
    Black Sea, and the South Caucasus pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkey, which will soon be part of
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    15
    the South Caucasus system that will deliver gas from the Caspian to Italy. This corridor is thus both
    highly valuable and vulnerable. Russia has a clear interest in discouraging the movement of
    Azerbaijani energy to Europe and it seems very willing to exercise both diplomatic and military
    leverage in the South Caucasus to further this ambition (Gurbanov, 2018).
    58. Southeastern Europe faces many of the same problems as Central and Eastern Europe. It too
    is relatively dependent on Russian gas, plagued by aging infrastructure and left vulnerable because
    of a lack of interconnections and two-way pipelines. The Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which will
    bring Azerbaijani gas from the Shah Deniz 2 field to Southern Europe, is part of a proposed grand
    Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), which is seen as one potential remedy to the rigidly structured gas
    markets of the region. The SGC is slated to play a fundamental role in the EU’s overall strategy to
    enhance European energy security. The project has become all the more important now that the
    Nord Stream 2 project is underway. Chancellor Merkel’s recent visit to Azerbaijan provided an
    opportunity for her to show her dedication to the notion of diversifying European energy supplies
    despite the Nord Stream 2 project. The Chancellor faced criticism from the Trump administration at
    the NATO Brussels summit for the Nord Stream project and has suggested that American LNG might
    be a safer alternative to Russian gas. Germany is the world’s largest importer of natural gas, and
    Russia has the largest endowment of natural gas. That there is an important energy trade between
    the two is hardly shocking. German authorities maintain that this trade is driven entirely by
    commercial consideration. The problem lies in how that trade is structured and what it means for
    Germany’s partners, who worry that Russia could put itself in a position to disrupt the flow of energy
    to the continent (Karasz, 2018). Chancellor Merkel’s endorsement of the effort to move Azerbaijani
    gas from the Shah Deniz 2 fields to Europe was timed to demonstrate that Germany is willing to
    include broader security concerns in its energy strategy (Chazan, 2018).
    59. Completion of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) now seems likely and represents an
    interesting contrast to previous failed efforts to strengthen regional energy links, like the Nabucco
    project. That said, the SGC does confront public resistance in southern Italy, which will host the
    terminus for the TAP (Gurbanov, 2018). The SGC includes the Shah Deniz 2 gas field in Azerbaijan,
    the South Caucasus Pipeline extension (Azerbaijan-Georgia), the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline through
    Turkey (TANAP) and the TAP. This broad project is seen as a far better option than the now-
    cancelled South Stream pipeline that would have moved Russian gas under the Black Sea to
    Bulgaria. That particular project was cancelled, as it was incompatible with EU competition
    regulations—a standard that should be applied to Nord Stream 2. South Stream also caused serious
    security concern in Brussels and in Washington. It is noteworthy that the Trump administration has
    now extended a specific waiver on US sanctions on Iran and those doing business with Iran to
    encourage development of the Shah Deniz gas field, something it has not done, by contrast, for BP,
    which has been working with the National Iranian Oil Company to develop the Rhum natural gas
    field in the North Sea (Gordon, 2018). In any case, Russia has been very active in the region’s
    energy markets. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently noted that his country is not
    walking away from the Southern European market and hopes that its TurkStream project will move
    Russian gas to Southern Europe.
    60. Corruption, political interference and low levels of investment have posed acute problems for
    the energy sector in the Western Balkans, where the stakes are particularly high as the region as a
    whole confronts an array of obstacles to transition and Euro-Atlantic integration. High-level corruption
    cases in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, the former Yugoslav Republic of
    Macedonia1
    , Montenegro and Serbia are indicative of the deep-seated problems in the sector
    (Prelec, 2014). Corruption cases have covered the entire gamut of industrial activities from
    hydroelectric construction, through privatisations, to tendering for new projects and government
    investments in the sector. Even more worrisome perhaps is that journalists, NGOs and state
    prosecutors who have sought to expose this lawlessness have faced intimidation and official
    pressure to silence the voice of whistle-blowers (Likmeta, 2014). A 2014 study suggested that tens
    of millions of euros have been lost as a result of corruption in the energy sector in Southeastern
    1 Turkey recognises the Republic of Macedonia with its constitutional name.
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    16
    Europe. This is particularly worrying as the European Union has made a priority of helping the region
    refashion its energy infrastructure to help it meet its energy sustainability goals. By definition, moving
    to more efficient and sustainable energy markets requires progress in the fight against corruption.
    Unfortunately, corruption remains one of the most compelling obstacles to successful democratic
    and market transition throughout this region.
    NATO and Energy Security
    61. NATO’s own role in building energy security has been the subject of some discussion and
    debate for a number of years. Energy security writ large is generally more a matter of structuring
    markets than it is about hard defence, so there are obviously other institutions beyond military ones,
    like the International Energy Agency, that have enormous responsibilities in formulating international
    efforts to bolster energy security. That said, defending critical infrastructure is very much part of
    NATO’s remit, and providing that security has become all the more challenging given the rise of
    cyber war techniques. Energy itself is a strategic asset, and it is vital to the functioning of military
    forces. Defence planners must ensure both that the societies they are defending have access to this
    vital strategic asset and, of course, that their militaries do as well. Threats to those supplies are
    diverse and can emanate not only from state actors, but also from sub-state actors such as pirates
    operating along or near maritime choke points. Terrorist attacks on vital energy assets have also
    increased sharply in recent years and this has made it essential to harden the defence of these
    assets. NATO provides an important vehicle for sharing information, intelligence and best practices
    to lower the risks of such attacks and to cope with them should they occur. The Alliance has also
    worked to lower fuel costs for its forces while raising environmental awareness in member
    militaries—work that is also shared with partner countries.
    62. Lithuania is now hosting the NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence to develop and share
    expertise across the Alliance on all aspects of energy security. In modern, highly integrated
    economies, attacks mounted even by small groups of terrorists can have a devastating economic,
    social and even political impact. Critical energy infrastructure is thus a favourite target for those
    seeking to inflict massive costs on societies through the conduct of low-cost terrorist operations. It is
    also worth noting here that energy disputes have long been a source of international tensions and
    have been factors in previous wars.
    63. At the 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit, Allied heads of state and government gave NATO a
    mandate to work on energy security matters. Again, this posed a challenge for an organisation
    largely focused on traditional military matters. The Alliance, however, has subsequently structured
    its work on energy security in three areas: raising strategic awareness of those energy matters with
    direct security implications, protecting critical energy infrastructure and enhancing energy efficiency
    in the military (Grubliauskas, 2014). NATO relies on other institutions, such as the International
    Energy Agency, to enhance its own situational awareness, but it has become something of an
    intelligence clearinghouse on energy-related matters and their links to hard security. NATO also
    consults with its partners on energy security issues as diverse as resource competition, climate
    change and the ways these shape the broader security landscape.
    IX. CONCLUSION
    64. Diversification and assurance of energy supply are key to energy security for Europe and
    North America alike. But these pose a particular challenge for Eastern and Central Europe, which
    has long relied heavily on Russian gas and oil, leaving the region vulnerable to Russian suasion.
    The development of new interconnections, north-south links, two-way pipelines and LNG reception
    facilities will help enhance energy security, as will investments in transformative and clean renewable
    energy sources. The growth of the LNG market and the construction of LNG terminals in Europe is
    now transforming natural gas into a more “fungible” commodity that moves internationally and is
    priced globally. Building even more hubs and reception ports in Europe will only enhance security.
    As US LNG production increases, it could strongly contribute to Europe’s energy security both by
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    17
    supporting the construction of LNG import capacity and pipelines and by increasing gas exports to
    the continent. Both would expand the list of gas suppliers to Europe, thus making European and
    international gas markets more fungible and competitive while reinforcing transatlantic energy links
    (Collins and Mikulska, 2018).
    65. But there are also reasons for concern. The construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline makes
    little geopolitical sense for Eastern Europe and could leave it more vulnerable to energy blackmail.
    The project is now underway but continues to foment discord between Eastern and Western Europe
    and there are concerns in Brussels that Russia will be tempted to exercise price discretion to reward
    or penalise countries over which it seeks to exercise influence (BBC Monitoring, 2018.) That pipeline,
    now under construction, will likely deepen Europe’s reliance on Russian gas, give Russia new
    sources of leverage over western democracies, further weaken Ukraine, and provide additional
    income to a Russian government that is increasingly intent on destabilising Europe and undermining
    democratic institutions on both sides of the Atlantic through both traditional military and non-military
    means. Efforts are needed now to mitigate the worst potential impact of the project and particularly
    to ensure that Ukraine is not left to its own devices. Fortunately, LNG is now poised to compete with
    Russian gas in several markets. Its falling price and growing availability, along with the growth of
    renewable energy, have reduced Russia’s price-setting leverage on the continent and could help
    mitigate the impact of Nord Stream 2. LNG will invariably remain more expensive than Russian gas
    piped into the continent, but security has its costs and this so-called externality needs to be more
    systematically factored into energy pricing and energy decision making. Efforts such as the proposed
    Three Seas Initiative to link up LNG infrastructure between ocean terminals in Poland and Croatia
    make good strategic sense. The Three Seas Initiative seeks to unite 12 countries in the region
    between the Baltic, Adriatic and Black Seas through energy infrastructure. Finding new ways of
    bringing energy from the Caspian to Europe should remain a priority.
    66. Although improved infrastructure is key to bolstering Central and Eastern European security,
    so too are enhancements in the regulatory environment. Linked-up international approaches are
    needed, such as the construction of a genuine European Energy Union. The Union could negotiate
    gas and oil contracts as a block, collectively plan for new infrastructure, work out responses to
    potential supply emergencies, and foster regional cooperation efforts. Ensuring open market
    competition and transparency is also an essential component of developing genuinely secure energy
    markets. Making Central and Eastern Europe more energy efficient can help lower dependence on
    imports from unstable or threatening regions. Infrastructure investment is also needed in the
    electricity sector, particularly in power generation and transmission lines. Coping with loop flow
    problems and building systems that can readily handle renewables are essential to European energy
    security as a whole and demand collaborative solutions.
    67. Fossil fuel subsidies persist in much of Central and Eastern Europe. Not only is this a burden
    on national budgets, it also slows the process of energy transition to a more efficient use of carbon
    fuel and an increasing use of cleaner and more strategically secure renewables. Subsidising
    carbon-based fuels use is often designed expressly to protect vested interests in the status quo.
    Such subsidies invariably slow the emergence of new energy sectors that promise to generate jobs
    in the future and build greater energy security.
    68. Energy control and grid management systems are becoming ever more sophisticated and
    efficient, but they are also increasingly vulnerable to cyber or other attacks. These systems need to
    be made more secure, and perhaps even redundant, to resist hacks which, at their worst, can
    represent an act of war designed to paralyse critical national systems. National security officials and
    the private sector need to deepen consultation and ensure that an effective partnership is in place
    to safeguard these systems. This will be as critical a challenge as diversifying energy supplies over
    the next several decades. As NATO bolsters its own cyber defence capabilities, it can play a role in
    helping to coordinate efforts among Allies and partners to defend this critical infrastructure.
    69. Poor budgetary transparency and oversight both in the public and private energy sectors
    create opportunities for corruption. It is therefore essential for the public to demand this transparency
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    18
    and for governments to insist upon it. Failure to do so will almost invariably result in corruption, and
    when the scale of this mounts, it will pose a clear threat to democratic governance, economic health
    and national and regional security. The breakup of energy monopolies will help open energy markets
    and, by extension, render them more secure, resilient, and capable of serving national economic
    and security interests. Doing so can attract investment from the private sector, which, for apparent
    reasons, must be a partner in building a more secure energy future for the continent.
    70. Codes of conduct for international companies operating in Europe are essential and need to
    be applied universally. Open competition and a level playing field are critical conditions for attracting
    investment. Along these lines, it has made no sense to exempt a company like Gazprom from
    European rules that prohibit gas companies from owning the very pipelines that move gas to
    markets. These rules also prohibit pipeline companies from limiting access to those pipelines.
    Fortunately, under Article 9 of the EU's antitrust regulation, the European Union has recently
    imposed a set of rules on Gazprom that should help limit anti-competitive behaviour. These include:
    - No more contractual barriers to the free flow of gas. Gazprom has to remove any restrictions
    to cross-border gas resale that are placed on customers.
    - An obligation to facilitate gas flows to and from isolated markets. Gazprom will enable gas
    flows to and from parts of Central and Eastern Europe that are still isolated from other
    member states due to the lack of interconnectors, namely the Baltic States and Bulgaria.
    - Structured process to ensure competitive gas prices. Relevant Gazprom customers are
    given an effective tool to make sure their gas price reflects the price level in competitive
    Western European gas markets, especially at liquid gas hubs.
    - No leveraging of dominance in gas supply. Gazprom cannot act on any advantages
    concerning gas infrastructure, which it may have obtained from customers by having
    leveraged its market position in gas supply.
    The Commission claims that these obligations will essentially address its competition concerns and
    achieve its objectives of enabling the free flow of gas in Central and Eastern Europe at competitive
    prices (European Commission, 2018). But vigilance on these matters remains essential.
    71. Gazprom’s monopoly over the gas sector in several European countries is equally
    unacceptable. With international support, these countries need to muster the political will to diversify
    their energy base and generalise the rules of the game so that the playing field is even. Codes of
    conduct are also needed to exercise more control over former state officials and politicians who
    move quickly from positions as regulators to that of lobbyists for Russian and other energy firms.
    Ultimately, parliaments have an essential role to play in ensuring that energy markets are diversified,
    open and transparent. It is their essential duty to establish procedures and laws to ensure a broad
    energy base and competitive and transparent markets unimpeded by political favouritism and
    corruption.
    72. NATO’s efforts both to factor energy security considerations into its strategic vision and to
    defend critical energy infrastructure from physical and cyberattacks make eminent sense. This
    awareness is essential in the maritime sector, as ever more LNG is transported via ships.
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    19
    BIBLIOGRAPHY
    Anderson, Robert, “Progress on renewables provokes backlash in central and eastern Europe”,
    Foreign Affairs, 20 October 2017.
    Antonenko, Anton, Roman Nitsovych, Olena Pavlenko, Kristian Takac, “Reforming Ukraine’s Energy
    Sector: Critical Unfinished Business," Carnegie Europe, 5 February 2018,
    http://carnegieeurope.eu/2018/02/06/reforming-ukraine-s-energy-sector-critical-unfinished-
    business-pub-75449
    Åslund, Anders, “Gazprom in crisis: a chance for reform,” European Energy Review, April 26, 2010,
    http://www.europeanenergyreview.eu/index.php?id_mailing=67&toegang=735b90b4568125e
    d6c3f678819b6e058&id=1898
    “Association Implementation Report on Ukraine”, European Commission, 2016,
    https://eeas.europa.eu/sites/eeas/files/association_implementation_report_on_ukraine.pdf
    Atlantic Council, “US LNG Seen as Fuel for US-EU Energy Security Relationship”, 29 April 2016,
    http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/us-lng-seen-as-fuel-for-us-eu-energy-
    security-relationship
    Bankwatch Network, “No security for Europe from the Southern Gas Corridor”, 16 May 2017,
    https://bankwatch.org/blog/no-security-for-europe-from-the-southern-gas-corridor
    Barrasso, John, “Europe’s addiction to Russian energy is dangerous,” The Washington Post, 27 July
    2018.
    BBC, “Anger as German ex-chancellor Schroeder heads up Rosneft board,” 29, September 2017,
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41447603
    BBC, “Russia drops South Stream gas pipeline plan,” 1 December 2014”,
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30283571
    BBC, “Russia to buy Gazprom,” 17 May 2005, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4554321.stm
    BBC Monitoring, “Europe economy: Report discusses Nord Stream 2,” 16 April 2018.
    Berman, Ilan, “Central Asia's Encouraging Development: Why the Region Is Embracing Greater
    Cooperation and Coordination”, Foreign Affairs, 8 August 2017.
    Bershidsky, Leonid, “New U.S. Sanctions on Russia Are a Mixed Bag,” Bloomberg, 24 July 2017.
    Borger, Julian, "US accuses Russia of cyber-attack on energy sector and imposes new sanctions,"
    The Guardian, 15 March 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/mar/15/russia-
    sanctions-energy-sector-cyber-attack-us-election-interference
    Brunsden, Jim, “EU caught in crossfire of US’s Russia sanctions move”, Financial Times,
    24 July 2017.
    Buchan, David, “Europe’s energy security: caught between short-term needs and long-term goals”,
    The Oxford Institute for Energy Security, 2014.
    CEEP, Central Europe Energy Partners, “Energy Security Quest in Central and Eastern Europe:
    Achievements and Challenges”, 15 December 2016, https://www.ceep.be/3176-2/.
    Chazan, Guy, “Merkel backs efforts to find alternatives to Russian Gas,” Financial Time 21 August
    2018, https://www.ft.com/content/f1e8c7c2-a524-11e8-8ecf-a7ae1beff35b
    Chazan, Guy et. al, “Germany and France court Putin over Iran nuclear Pact, Financial Times, 19/20
    May 2018
    Clark, Pilita, “The Big Green Bang: how renewable energy became unstoppable,” Financial Times,
    18 May 2017.
    Collins, Gabriel, and Anna Mikulska, “Here’s how America can counter Russia’s Nord Strea-2 Gas
    Pipeline,” The National Interest, 31 July 2018.
    “Cyber Security in the Energy Sector: Recommendations for the European Commission on a
    European Strategic Framework and Potential Future Legislative Acts for the Energy Sector”,
    Energy Expert Cyber Security Platform, 2017,
    https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/eecsp_report_final.pdf
    De Carbonnel, Alice, and Vera Eckert, “EU stalls Russian gas pipeline, but probably won't stop it,”
    Reuters, 24 March 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-gazprom-nordstream-
    analysis/eu-stalls-russian-gas-pipeline-but-probably-wont-stop-it-idUSKBN16V20S
    De Mico, Pascal, “Could US oil and gas exports be a game changer for EU energy security?”,
    European Parliament Directorate-General For External Policies Policy Department, February
    2016.
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    20
    Dempsey, Judy, “Russia’s Enduring Grip on Eastern Europe,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe,
    7 May 2013, http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/51132?lang=en
    Dempsey, Judy “Hungary chooses Gazprom over EU,” New York Times, March 12, 2007,
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/12/world/europe/12iht-hungary.4885468.html.
    Deutsche Welle, “German MPs call for clarification on contentious Russian gas pipeline Nord Stream
    2," 21 February 2018. http://www.dw.com/en/german-mps-call-for-clarification-on-contentious-
    russian-gas-pipeline-nord-stream-2/a-42655495
    European Commission, "Third Report on the State of the Energy Union," 23 November 2017.
    “Energy union and climate: Making energy more secure, affordable and sustainable”, European
    Commission https://ec.europa.eu/commission/priorities/energy-union-and-climate_en
    “EU invests in energy security and diversification in Central and South Eastern Europe,” European
    Commission, 18 December 2017, https://ec.europa.eu/info/news/eu-invests-energy-security-
    and-diversification-central-and-south-eastern-europe-2017-dec-18_en
    European Commission Press Release, “Energy Union: Commission takes steps to extend common
    EU gas rules to import pipelines,” 8 November 2017, http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-
    17-4401_en.htm
    European Commission Press release, “Antitrust: Commission imposes binding obligations on
    Gazprom to enable free flow of gas at competitive prices in Central and Eastern European gas
    markets,” 24 May 2018, http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-3921_en.htm
    Foy, Henry and Buck, Tobias, "Nord Stream 2 construction begins in German waters despite
    threats," Financial Times, 30 August 2018.
    Gawlikowska-Fyk, Aleksandra and Bartosz Wiśniewski, "US sanctions and Nord Stream 2: Every
    dog has its day?" Euractiv,8 August, 2017.
    Global Risk Insights, “EU divisions and US sanctions to delay Nord Stream 2," November 22, 2017,
    https://globalriskinsights.com/2017/11
    Gordon, Meghan, “US confirms sanctions waiver for Azerbaijan natural gas pipeline to Turkey,
    Europe, S&P Global, 7 August 2018, https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-
    insights/latest-news/natural-gas/080718-us-confirms-iran-sanctions-waiver-for-azerbaijan-
    natural-gas-pipeline-to-turkey-europe
    Gotev, Georgi, “Poland puts hopes in Northern Gate gas pipeline,” EUACTIV.com, 18 October 2016,
    https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/poland-puts-hopes-in-northern-gate-gas-
    pipeline/
    Grubliauskas, Julijus, “NATO’s Energy Security Energy Agenda”, NATO Review
    https://www.nato.int/docu/review/2014/nato-energy-security-running-on-empty/nato-energy-
    security-agenda/en/index.htm
    Gurbanov, Ilgar, “Azerbaijan’s Cooperation With the EU: A Pragmatic Focus on the Benefits,” The
    Eurasia Daily Monitor, The Jamestown Foundation, 28 June 2018,
    https://jamestown.org/program/azerbaijans-cooperation-with-the-eu-a-pragmatic-focus-on-
    the-benefits/
    Gurzu, Anca and Bayer, Lili, “EU looks to water down impact of US sanctions on Russia,” Politico,
    26 July 2017, https://www.euractiv.com/sections/pipeline-politics/
    https://www.enseccoe.org/en, Welcome to NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/16/business/energy-environment/liquified-natural-gas-world-
    markets.html.
    http://razumkov.org.ua/uploads/article/2017_NES%202035_RazumkovCentre_Ukraine_September
    %202017_description.pdf
    International Energy Agency, “World Energy Outlook 2017,” 14 November 2017,
    https://www.iea.org/weo2017/
    Johnson, Keith, Let Slip the Bureaucrats of War,” Foreign Policy 7 February 2015,
    http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/27/let-slip-the-bureaucrats-of-war-eu-gazprom-russia-gas/
    Joint Research Centre, “The Baltic power System and Market Changes,” European Commission,
    https://ses.jrc.ec.europa.eu/baltic-power-system-and-market-changes
    Karasz, Palko, “Germany Imports Gas from Russia, But is it a captive?” The New York Times,
    11 July 2018.
    Klimberg, Alexander, “The Darkening Web,” New York, Penguin Press, 2017.
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    21
    Kottasova, Ivana 2017, “Europe to U.S. Your new Russia sanctions would hurt us too,” CNN Money,
    24 July 2017, http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/24/news/economy/europe-us-sanctions-natural-
    gas-russia/index.html
    Kraussoct, Clifford, “Boom in American Liquefied Natural Gas Is Shaking Up the Energy World,” The
    New York Times, 16 October 2017,
    Kupchinsky, Roman, "Gazprom's European Web," The Jamestown Foundation, 18 February 2009.
    Levi, Michael, “Go East, Young Oilman: How Asia Is Shaping the Future of Global Energy”, Foreign
    Affairs, August 2015.
    Likmeta, Besar, “Power Games:The dark side of energy deals in the Balkans,” Balkan Insight,
    25 June 2014, http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/corruption-hinders-balkans-
    sustainable-energy-future
    Logatskiy, Victor, “New Energy Strategy of Ukraine till 2035,” Security, Energy Efficiency,
    Competitive Ability, Razumkov Centre,
    Moore, Tristina, “Gazprom’s global ambitions,” BBC 20 December, 2005
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4531578.stm
    NATO PA, Mission Report Abu Dhabi [020 JOINT 18 E], https://www.nato-pa.int/document/2018-
    abu-dhabi-mission-report-020-joint-18-e
    Open Democracy Roundtable, “A visa-free for dirty money: transborder corruption, Russia and the
    West,” 14 June 2017, https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/editors-of-opendemocracy-
    russia/transborder-corruption-roundtable
    Pavlovaitė, Inga “News from Lithuania: Toward the end of the campaign,” Central Europe Review 2,
    no. 34 (October 2000), http://www.ce-review.org/00/34/lithuanianews34.html.
    Polak, Petr, “The Trouble With Nord Stream 2: How the Pipeline Would Benefit Russia at the EU’s
    Expense,” Foreign Affairs, 23 August 2017.
    Polak, Petr, “Europe's Low Energy: The Promise and Perils of the Energy Union,” Foreign Affairs,
    9 September 2015, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/western-europe/2015-09-
    09/europes-low-energy
    Popkostova, Yana, “Disruptive change: Europe’s energy security and the US LNG”, BlogActiv.EU,
    8 September 2016, https://guests.blogactiv.eu/2016/09/08/disruptive-change-europes-
    energy-security-and-the-us-lng/
    Prelec, Marko, Winners and Losers: Who benefits from high-level corruption in the South East
    Europe energy sector?” South East Europe Sustainable Energy Policy Program,” June 2014,
    https://bankwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/SEE-energy-corruption.pdf
    “Quarterly Report on European Gas Markets,” European Commission DG Energy, vol. 10, no. 3,
    2017.
    Raines, Thomas, and Tomlinson, Shane, “Europe’s Energy Union: Foreign Policy Implications for
    Energy security, Climate, and Competitiveness,” Chatham House, 2016.
    “Report on the State of the Energy Union,” European Commission, 24 November 2017,
    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/third-report-state-energy-
    union_en.pdf
    Reuters, "Hungary to stand by EU's Russia sanctions, wants help on gas," 14 November 2014,
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-hungary-russia-germany/hungary-to-stand-by-eus-
    russia-sanctions-wants-help-on-gas-idUSKCN0IW29H20141112
    Reuters, “ Poland wants U.S. sanctions to cover Nord Stream 2,” 29 January 2018,
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-nordstream-usa/poland-wants-u-s-sanctions-to-
    cover-nord-stream-2-idUSKBN1FI134
    Reuters, “Russia’s Nord Stream gas pipeline threatens EU Unity,” 15 December 2015,
    https://af.reuters.com/article/africaTech/idAFL8N1441WM20151215
    Rivkin, David B. and Miomir Zuzul, “Trump is Right on Nord Stream 2,” The Wall Street Journal,
    22 July 2018.
    Ruhle, Michale and Trakimavicius, Lukas, “Cyberattacks are the new challenge for renewable
    energy,” Politico, 18 July 2017, https://www.politico.eu/article/opinion-cyberattacks-are-the-
    new-challenge-for-renewable-energy/
    Ruth, Matthias, “Corruption and the Energy Sector,” USAID, November 2002
    http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/Pnact875.pdf
    175 ESCTD 18 E rev.1 fin
    22
    Schlandt, Jakob, “Loops and cracks: Excess German power strains Europe’s grids”, Clean Energy
    Wire, 29 December 2015.
    Standish, Reid, “Lithuania, Leery of Moscow, Spars With Belarus Over Nuclear Reactor,” Foreign
    Policy, 31 October, 2017, http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/31/lithuania-leery-of-moscow-
    spars-with-belarus-over-nuclear-reactor/
    Taylor, Simon, “Nord Stream launch gives Russia the upper hand”, Politico, 14 September 2011,
    https://www.politico.eu/article/nord-stream-launch-gives-russia-the-upper-hand/ Third
    The Economist Intelligence Unit, “Energy giants face anti-trust charges over Nord Stream 2,” 11 May
    2018.
    Vaughan, Adam, “US will become one of the world's top gas exporters by 2020," The Guardian,
    13 July 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/13/us-worlds-top-gas-exporter-
    2020-iea-russia-norway
    White, Samuel, “Baltic power plans may increase tensions with Russia,” Euractiv.com, 15 April 2015,
    https://www.euractiv.com/section/electricity/news/baltic-power-plans-may-increase-tensions-
    with-russia/.
    ______________________
    www.nato-pa.int
    ECONOMICS AND SECURITY COMMITTEE
    219 ESC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    Original: French
    RESOLUTION 449
    on
    OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES IN A CHANGING SPACE
    ARENA*
    The Assembly,
    1. Acknowledging that space represents a critical arena of both global competition and
    cooperation, a bastion of the global economy and technological development and a vital scientific
    frontier;
    2. Understanding that space has become an important military theatre with space-based
    satellites playing an essential role for ground, sea and air forces for many national militaries including
    those of NATO members;
    3. Noting that the space sector is undergoing fundamental changes due to digitalisation,
    components miniaturisation, and the growing role of private actors;
    4. Recognising that the so-called realm of “new space” promises enormous scientific and
    economic rewards but also poses new risks;
    5. Affirming that among these risks are the potential presence of bad actors, the development
    of weapons systems that operate in orbit and from Earth, the vulnerability of communications – from
    earth observation and digital space architecture to cyber and even physical attacks – as well as the
    proliferation of man-made debris in vital orbits;
    6. Concerned by the increasingly disruptive nature of space warfare programmes in China and
    Russia, including China’s growing use of Anti-Satellite (ASAT) capabilities and Russia’s satellite
    jamming and spoofing capabilities;
    7. Applauding international collaboration in space across a range of areas including access to
    launch vehicles, and shared information on accidents in launch and in space, as well as scientific
    projects like the International Space Station and the Mars Rover;
    8. Recognising that NATO operations are highly dependent on national space capabilities in
    everything from intelligence, ground surveillance, navigation, early warning and radar to disaster
    management;
    9. Applauding the overarching Space Policy which NATO agreed to develop at the Brussels
    Summit in 2018 and the commitment of Allies to promote the non-militarisation of space;
    * Presented by the Economics and Security Committee and adopted by the Plenary Assembly on
    Monday 19 November 2018, in Halifax, Canada
    219 ESC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    2
    10. Acknowledging that there is a need to update international laws governing space operations
    on matters ranging from the militarisation of space and space mining to debris generation;
    11. URGES member governments and parliaments of the North Atlantic Alliance:
    a. to work to ensure that space remains an arena of global cooperation despite its importance to
    national military and intelligence establishments;
    b. to make a priority of establishing commonly shared rules and norms to provide more effective
    governance of the global commons in space, particularly as those commons grow more
    crowded with state and non-state actors;
    c. to strengthen rules and norms that aim to minimise the problem of debris in orbits in which vital
    satellite systems are operating, including sharp restrictions on testing and deploying
    anti-satellite weapons systems;
    d. to deepen collaboration with private companies to ensure that their satellites are protected
    from any cyberattack;
    e. to develop more effective fora engaging major players in space with the goal of fostering
    meaningful dialogue and decision making on space policy;
    f. to encourage NATO to develop a focused space policy, interoperability and capability sharing
    across the Alliance, not because space will be the next frontier of conflict, but because NATO
    capabilities are increasingly dependent upon space-based assets.
    ________________
    ECONOMICS AND SECURITY COMMITTEE
    220 ESC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    Original: English
    RESOLUTION 450
    on
    ENERGY SECURITY:
    A STRATEGIC CHALLENGE FOR THE ALLIANCE*
    The Assembly,
    1. Acknowledging that energy security is a major concern for the North Atlantic Alliance as
    overreliance on any single supplier of energy for Europe leaves NATO members strategically vulnerable;
    2. Applauding the European Commission’s investigation into the opaque pricing of Russia’s gas
    monopoly and efforts to increase connectivity in energy markets;
    3. Supporting the efforts made by the European Commission to reform European energy markets
    by introducing liberalisation measures, building new linkages in energy infrastructure networks, and
    challenging Russia’s monopolistic commodity-pricing practices;
    4. Recognising the important contributions that new pipelines networks, like the Southern Gas
    Corridor from Azerbaijan to Southern Europe, and the planned EastMed gas pipeline from the
    South East Mediterranean sea to Europe, can make to collective energy security;
    5. Noting that advancements in hydrofracking, Liquified Natural Gas (LNG), and renewables offer
    partial alternatives to energy sourced through unstable regions of the world;
    6. Aware that Russia’s use of natural gas as a tool of political coercion, as it was used against
    Ukraine in 2006 and 2009, can trigger major supply interruptions for Europe;
    7. Alarmed by the destabilising effects and undue influence that overreliance on Russian energy
    can have on Europe and the Alliance, especially when Russia actively engages in foreign election
    interference as well as other forms of political subterfuge while continuing to occupy Crimea and support
    Russian-led military forces in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine in the Donetsk and Luhansk
    regions;
    8. Aware that conventional threats to energy infrastructure from state and non-state actors remains
    a chief concern of NATO members;
    * Presented by the Economics and Security Committee and adopted by the Plenary Assembly on
    Monday 19 November 2018 in Halifax, Canada
    220 ESC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    2
    9. Recognising that even if energy security is mainly the concern of governments and international
    institutions like the European Union and the International Energy Agency, there is nonetheless an
    important role for NATO to play in ensuring energy security across the Alliance;
    10. Welcoming NATO’s efforts both to factor energy security considerations into its strategic vision
    and to defend critical energy infrastructure from physical and cyberattacks;
    11. Cognisant that even if individual members have differing perspectives on how to best ensure
    energy security, the Alliance remains resolutely committed to promoting the secure, affordable, and
    uninterrupted flow of energy in Europe and North America;
    12. URGES member governments and parliaments of the North Atlantic Alliance:
    a. to promote transparency, diversification, and security within European energy markets and
    throughout the North Atlantic region;
    b. to accordingly invest in renewable energy and other energy sectors that provide a partial
    alternative to Russian gas and oil;
    c. to work to bring more oil and gas from the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean
    to European and world markets and to identify potentially profitable and secure infrastructure to
    make this possible;
    d. to be prepared for cyberattacks aimed at energy infrastructure;
    e. to counter corruption in the energy sector;
    f. to demonstrate a commitment toward greater solidarity and security by building more
    interconnectors and LNG hubs, while working for an even higher level of electrical grid integration;
    g. to ensure that Ukraine is not isolated in energy security terms despite Russian efforts both to build
    pipelines around that country and to raise the risk of investing in Ukraine’s energy industry.
    _______________
    POLITICAL COMMITTEE (PC)
    INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTH
    General Report
    by Julio Miranda CALHA (Portugal)
    General Rapporteur
    177 PC 18 E rev.1 fin | Original: English | 18 November 2018
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    I. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................1
    II. THE SITUATION IN SYRIA AND IRAQ: AN UPDATE ...........................................................1
    SYRIA...........................................................................................................................1
    IRAQ.............................................................................................................................3
    III. DEVELOPMENTS IN NORTH AFRICA .................................................................................4
    ECONOMIC STAGNATION AND YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT .....................................4
    ILLEGAL MIGRATION AND HUMAN TRAFFICKING ...................................................6
    JIHADISM / MILITANT ORGANISATIONS / TERRORISM ...........................................6
    IV. SECURITY ISSUES IN THE SAHEL AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE STABILITY IN THE MENA
    REGION ................................................................................................................................7
    A. DEVELOPMENTS IN MALI ..........................................................................................7
    B. AL-QAEDA IN THE ISLAMIC MAGHREB’S ‘SAHELISATION’......................................8
    C. BOKO HARAM AND THE LAKE CHAD BASIN CRISIS................................................8
    MARITIME SECURITY IN THE GULF OF GUINEA......................................................8
    V. REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE MENA REGION AND NATO ...............................................9
    VI. CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................. 11
    BIBLIOGRAPHY.................................................................................................................. 13
    177 PC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    1
    I. INTRODUCTION
    1. The Arab uprisings of 2011 (and their national aftermaths) have led to a collapse of the regional
    order, thus transforming the Southern Mediterranean shores into a basin of persistent instability.
    The continuing volatility and conflicts in NATO’s southern neighbourhood directly affect the security
    of the Alliance. Threats emanating from terrorist groups and the migration crisis are largely due to
    economic, social and political factors as well as weak governance in NATO’s Mediterranean
    partners.
    2. At the Warsaw Summit NATO Heads of State and Government agreed to put a premium on
    pursuing a 360-degree security approach. In this context, the Allies agreed to increase their support
    “to the efforts of the international community in projecting stability and strengthening security outside
    their territory, thereby contributing to Alliance security.”
    3. While progress has been made in tackling the manifold challenges, the overall security and
    stability of the region remains volatile and the situation in some countries has even deteriorated. Due
    to the complexity of the crises, the situation is not expected to improve soon. Therefore, if the Alliance
    wants to stabilise its southern neighbourhood it needs to continue, and indeed increase, its attention
    and support for its partners in the Mediterranean.
    4. After providing a brief update on the recent developments in Syria and Iraq your Rapporteur
    briefly analyses the key drivers promoting insecurity and instability in North Africa. The paper argues
    that the continuing volatility of the region is also impacted by developments to the South, particularly
    in the Sahel zone and the Gulf of Guinea. The Rapporteur concludes by providing a brief overview
    of NATO’s efforts in support of its Mediterranean partners.
    5. The report is an update of the Assembly’s monitoring of the developments in the Middle East
    and North Africa (MENA) region and serves as a basis for discussion among the members of the
    Political Committee and the Assembly as a whole.
    II. THE SITUATION IN SYRIA AND IRAQ: AN UPDATE
    SYRIA
    6. The war in Syria, which entered its seventh year in March 2018, has had a devastating effect
    on the population and the infrastructure of the country. The conflict is a major source of instability far
    beyond Syria’s borders, fuelling radicalisation, refugee flight and tension between outside powers.
    Since the beginning of the conflict in 2011, vast parts of the country have been destroyed, more than
    400,000 people have been killed, approximately 6.5 million people have been internally displaced
    and almost 5.6 million Syrian refugees have registered with the United Nations High Commissioner
    for Refugees (UNHCR).
    7. The military, intelligence and logistics support provided by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah has
    enabled the Assad regime to regain control of large swaths of the country. With the military balance
    tipped in their favour, Syrian government forces, backed by their Russian and Iranian allies, have
    recaptured the Damascus suburb of Eastern Ghouta after a five-year siege. Several reports have
    accused the Assad regime of using chlorine gas as part of their airstrike campaign. If these
    allegations are confirmed, the incident in Eastern Ghouta once again demonstrates the blatant
    disregard of the Syrian regime for the international agreements it has signed, including the Chemical
    Weapons Convention. The international community needs to hold the Assad regime accountable
    for the use of chemical weapons against its own people. Your Rapporteur wants to point out that in
    a joint statement on August 21, 2018 France, the United Kingdom, and the United States warned
    the Syrian regime that they would not tolerate the use of chemical weapons in any assault on Idlib.
    177 PC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    2
    8. While Russian President Vladimir Putin, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, and Iranian
    President Hassan Rouhani failed to agree on a ceasefire at a meeting in Tehran on 7 September
    2018 Russia and Turkey announced an agreement to establish a demilitarised zone around Idlib
    province on 18 September. However, at the time of writing the forces of the Syrian regime are
    preparing to launch an offensive against the rebels’ last stronghold in Idlib in the north-west of the
    country. Idlib province is mainly controlled by the jihadist alliance Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the
    core of which is al-Qaeda’s former Syrian affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra. Although Turkey, Russia, and
    Iran had agreed to establish a de-escalation zone in the area in September 2017 fighting has
    intensified since December 2017, when government forces, boosted by Russian air support,
    launched a major military campaign to dislodge HTS and conquer the province. There is
    considerable concern about the consequences of a military assault on Idlib; an official from the
    United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) warned that an attack
    could create the century's "worst humanitarian catastrophe" (AFP, 2018). Idlib, the last remaining
    stronghold of the opposition, is home to an estimated 3 million civilians, at least 1.2 million of whom
    are internally displaced, and an estimated 70,000 rebel fighters.
    9. The involvement of foreign actors has further complicated the already complex situation in
    Syria. In the North-Western province of Afrin, in the close vicinity of the conflict in Idlib, Turkey has
    launched Operation “Olive Branch” against the People’s Protection Units (Yekîneyên Parastina
    Gel: YPG) and Women’s Protection Units (Yekîneyên Parastina Jin: YPJ), the armed wings of the
    Kurdish Democratic Union Party (Partiya Yekîtiya Demokrat: PYD). The Turkish offensive began in
    January 2018, shortly after the United States signalled an open-ended military presence in Syria as
    part of a broader strategy to prevent the resurgence of Daesh. In this context, a US military
    spokesperson announced plans to create a 30,000-strong Syrian border protection force drawing on
    the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). While Turkey’s stated objective is to remove the
    PYD from its southern borders, observers have argued that another aim of the operation is to
    convince the United States to reverse its support for Kurdish forces as the anti-Daesh campaign
    draws to a close.
    10. Turkey’s operation “Olive Branch” in Northern Syria also exposed differences in the Allies’
    Syria policy. As part of their campaign against Daesh, the United States has provided the
    YPG-dominated SDF with military equipment and supported their ground-combat operations with
    airstrikes and Special Forces operations. Meanwhile, under the leadership of the PYD, de facto
    autonomous governance structures were established in the YPG / YPJ-held territories (commonly
    referred to as “Rojava”, short for “Rojavayê Kurdistanê” / “Western Kurdistan”). Turkey considers the
    recognition of an autonomous Kurdish region in Syria in the close vicinity of its border as a major
    security threat. More specifically, Ankara is concerned that this would allow the PYD, which it regards
    as the Syrian branch of the PKK, to use Northern Syria as a staging ground for attacks on Turkey.
    Moreover, Turkey is apprehensive that an autonomous Kurdish region in Syria would encourage
    similar moves by Kurdish separatist groups within Turkey.
    11. These events unfold against the backdrop of continuing international efforts to defeat Daesh.
    After the liberation of Raqqa by US-backed SDF forces in October 2017 Daesh no longer controls
    any major Syrian city. However, Daesh’s battlefield losses have not eradicated the organisation or
    its ideology. Instead, it seems likely that the group will adjust its tactics and transition from open
    combat to insurgency. Moreover, other fighters may seek refuge in ungoverned spaces across the
    region or return to their home countries, where they could continue to inspire and enable attacks. In
    any case, the lack of a joint, coordinated, Allied approach towards Syria risks eroding the
    achievements in the fight against Daesh and other terror groups.
    12. The situation on the ground is compounded by the fact that negotiations to end hostilities and
    find a political settlement have not produced any progress either. The two main peace initiatives held
    another set of talks in January 2018 – the UN-led Geneva process convened in Vienna, while a
    Syrian National Dialogue Congress organised by Russia, Turkey and Iran took place in Sochi. Both
    peace conferences focused on constitutional issues, but longstanding disagreement over the fate of
    177 PC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    3
    Syrian president Bashar al-Assad continues to stall the negotiations. As the military position of the
    Assad regime is improving, its diplomatic stance is hardening.
    IRAQ
    13. In Iraq, Daesh is on the defensive as well. The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), backed by coalition
    air and special operations, were able to regain control over one third of the country that had been
    under Daesh’s control at the height of the group’s power. On 9 December 2017, half a year after the
    liberation of Mosul, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi proclaimed victory over Daesh in Iraq and
    the end of major military campaigns. However, like in Syria, the group’s territorial contraction does
    not mean the end of Daesh as an organisation, but rather a shift to insurgency tactics. In addition to
    frequent small-scale attacks against security forces and civilians, the group maintains the ability to
    conduct high-profile attacks. For instance, it claimed responsibility for two concerted suicide
    bombings in central Baghdad on 15 January 2018, killing at least 38 people.
    14. The root causes that led to the emergence of Daesh in Iraq remain. Prime Minister al-Abadi
    has engaged in efforts to reverse the sectarian policies of his predecessor, Nouri al-Maliki, who
    consolidated power among Shi’a elites. However, years of Daesh’s occupation and targeting of the
    Iraqi Shi’a and Christian populations in particular have exacerbated sectarian tensions.
    Reconciliation is likely to be a difficult endeavour, and the low turnout in the national parliamentary
    elections in May reveals the population’s growing disillusionment with the ruling elites and the
    political system. The violent protests that erupted in the south of the country in July and September
    2018 were clear showcases of the Iraqis' growing discontent over corruption, unemployment and
    lack of basic services such as electricity and clean water. According to the 2017 youth
    unemployment index of the World Bank, almost 18% of the 15-24 old, who represent 62.8% of the
    Iraqi population, are unemployed. Soaring unemployment, especially in the areas that were once
    controlled by Daesh, continues to fuel further instability. At the time of writing no government has
    been formed; it appears doubtful that Haider al-Abadi, who acts as caretaker Prime Minister, will be
    able to secure a second term.
    15. Over three years of intense combat have left vast parts of the country in ruins. In February
    2018, Kuwait hosted an international fundraising conference dedicated to Iraq’s post-war
    reconstruction. While participants made pledges worth USD 30 billion, mostly in credits and
    investments, the conference fell short of raising the USD 88 billion the Iraqi government estimates
    necessary to rebuild the country’s shattered economy and infrastructure. In addition, about
    2.6 million Iraqis remain internally displaced and 8.7 million are in need of humanitarian assistance.
    While Iraq does have meaningful energy resources that could be used for reconstruction, corruption
    remains an important impediment to attracting international investors. Transparency International’s
    2017 Corruption Perceptions Index ranked Iraq as the 11th
    most corrupt country (169th
    out of
    180 countries).
    16. The conflict has also put additional pressure on the already strained relationship between the
    federal government in Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Erbil. Proposed
    by KRG President Masoud Barzani, the KRG held a referendum on Kurdish independence in late
    September 2017. The federal government in Baghdad declared the referendum "illegal" and did not
    recognise its results. In addition to introducing punitive measure against the KRG, including a ban
    on international flights to the regions under Kurdish control, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi also
    ordered the ISF to retake Kirkuk. This effectively restored Baghdad’s control over the disputed
    territories that Kurdish Peshmerga fighters had taken from Daesh in 2014. The loss of Kirkuk plunged
    Kurdistan into economic and political problems and led to the resignation of KRG President
    Masoud Barzani. The ban on international flights to the Kurdish controlled regions was lifted in
    March 2018. Most recently, the Iraqi parliament approved the new budget, which cuts the KRG’s
    share from 17% to about 12,6%. Efforts to move beyond the standoff have largely proved
    unsuccessful so far.
    177 PC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    4
    17. Manoeuvring between state and sub-state or non-state actors remains a challenge within Iraqi
    security forces as well. Most notably, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella
    organisation of about 60 militias that formed as the ISF collapsed under Daesh advances in 2014,
    both strengthens and contests state security structures. A law passed in November 2016 vaguely
    defines the PMF both as an independent military institution and as part of the official security forces
    under the auspices of the Prime Minister’s office. However, the 60,000-strong PMF cannot be
    understood as a unified bloc. While some of these groups are expected to disband or integrate into
    state security forces, others formed long before 2014 and are likely to resist any moves aiming to
    curtail their independence. Although a number of security reforms have been implemented there are
    still numerous forces and militias which operate outside the control of the federal government. Some
    PMF factions are now entering the political sphere, as part of the political alliance Fatah, or
    Conquest, which has gained the second place in the Iraqi elections. In any case, how to deal with
    these groups will be one of the challenges in building a stable and peaceful Iraq after defeating
    Daesh.
    18. Another important issue that will influence the future development of Iraq is its bilateral
    relationship with its neighbours, particularly with Iran. It remains to be seen if, and how, the new
    government in Baghdad will (re-) define Iraq’s relationship with Iran, particularly with regard to
    Tehran’s influence in the country.
    III. DEVELOPMENTS IN NORTH AFRICA
    19. Instability in Syria and Iraq has repercussions beyond their borders and exacerbates an
    already volatile security situation in North Africa. The uprisings of 2011 toppled the governments of
    Tunisia and Libya, while the political ramifications in Algeria, Mauritania and Morocco were not as
    dramatic. Despite their profound differences, however, the five countries face similar challenges that
    impact European and Euro-Atlantic security. Albeit to varying degrees, they are all confronted with
    challenging demographic developments (youth bulge), a stagnant economy, illegal migration and
    violent forms of political Islam. The situation in Libya, in particular, continues to adversely affect the
    security in the region. Vast swaths of its territory elude government control and Libya’s society is
    deeply divided between different factions. The action plan for Libya, proposed by the United Nations’
    Special Envoy to Libya, Ghassan Salamé, to revive and extend the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA)
    has not been implemented. At the time of writing more than 100 people have been killed in the fights
    between rival militias in Tripoli despite a UN-backed ceasefire since late August.
    ECONOMIC STAGNATION AND YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT
    20. Economic and social challenges are key drivers of regional instability. Despite their differences,
    all countries in North Africa suffer from high levels of unemployment. In 2017 about 12% of the total
    population in North African countries was out of work, a number that is twice as high as the average
    unemployment rate in middle income countries. Mitigating these challenges is complicated by a
    particular age structure in North African societies, which is commonly known as the ‘youth bulge’.
    Except for Mauritania, birth rates across the region have been decreasing in recent years, and the
    countries under investigation are about to reach a “demographic turning point”. Currently, however,
    young adults account for a large proportion of the population in North Africa while the job creation
    rate lags behind the growth of the working-age population. The political instability that has troubled
    the region in recent years, has exacerbated the situation, causing a decline in tourism and foreign
    direct investment.
    21. These factors put additional pressure on the region’s already strained labour markets. The
    numbers draw a clear picture: with about one third of the 15 to 24-year-old population out of work,
    the youth unemployment rate in North Africa is higher than in any other region in the world. Moreover,
    those who manage to enter the workforce often suffer from precarious and informal working
    conditions. High-skilled, university-educated young people are frequently underemployed, i.e. they
    177 PC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    5
    are unable to find adequate jobs according to their skills and availability. In sum, many young people
    are stuck in economically vulnerable situations or in jobs that do not meet their expectations.
    Particularly disadvantaged are women and those living in rural areas.
    22. The Arab uprisings of 2011 showed that economic hardship of this magnitude involves serious
    risks for the region’s socio-political stability. The turmoil that swept through the area seven years ago
    started with Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution and was prompted by frustration over deteriorating
    socio-economic circumstances. The push for Ben Ali’s ouster was first and foremost motivated by
    the belief that democracy would entail a more inclusive development and new economic
    opportunities. In a poll for the Arab Barometer later in 2011, 68% of Tunisians stated economic
    conditions were of primary concern for the country whereas only 2% saw the democratic transition
    as the country’s most important challenge.
    23. The issues of economic stagnation and youth unemployment remain highly relevant across
    the region. In January 2018, many Tunisians marched the streets of Tunis again. Opposing the
    recently passed budget law, which entails new austerity measures, protesters called for “a fall of the
    budget”, slightly adapting the 2011 demands for a fall of the regime. The re-emerging protests are
    indicative of a growing sense of injustice and frustration caused by the post-revolutionary leaders’
    failure to deliver on their promises to redress the population’s economic grievances. The successive
    failure of nine cabinets to curb unemployment and inflation have led President Beji Caid Essebi in
    July 2018 to call for the resignation of Prime Minister Chahed. On the other hand, Tunisia’s
    continuing decentralisation efforts can, over time, generate a more equitable distribution of
    resources, thus improve service delivery across the country.
    24. In Egypt, the government launched an ambitious economic reform plan in 2016 to attract
    foreign direct investment and convince international donors of the government’s ability to recalibrate
    the economy. Although the reforms were successful in securing a USD 12 billion International
    Monetary Fund (IMF) loan, they have also increased economic hardship for the majority of
    Egyptians. At the same time, fears of instability and terrorism took their toll on the country’s tourism
    sector, one of the Egyptian economy’s key streams of revenue and an essential source of foreign
    currency earnings. While more than 14 million visitors came to Egypt in 2010, numbers dropped
    below 5.3 million in 2016. The government of Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has not been able to deliver the
    prosperity and security it promised, and the austerity measures that were introduced harshly impact
    Egypt’s middle class and the poor in particular.
    25. The civil war in Libya had detrimental effects on the country’s vital infrastructure as well as on
    oil and gas production. Smuggling and human trafficking have become highly lucrative, thus alluring
    young adults with more opportunities and higher revenues. Smuggling is increasingly seen as an
    ordinary occupation, rather than a crime. While there have been a few signs recently that Libya’s oil
    production is slowly recovering, the fractured political landscape and the rampant corruption cast a
    shadow over the country’s economic development.
    26. Algeria’s and Mauritania’s socio-economic situation is also volatile, due to declining prices for
    oil in Algeria and extractive resources in Mauritania. Riots by disenchanted youth in Algeria’s South
    in 2016 already indicated that the country’s social peace is threatened. The unresolved succession
    question in Algeria and the constitutional issue in Mauritania (i.e. whether
    President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz will change the constitution to allow him another term) further
    exacerbate socio-political tensions.
    177 PC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    6
    ILLEGAL MIGRATION AND HUMAN TRAFFICKING
    27. North Africa continues to be both a destination as well as a transit hub for illegal migrants from
    the Sahel and Sub-Saharan Africa. Seeking to reach Europe, refugees and migrants often traverse
    the Sahara and then wait in Algeria for a suitable opportunity to reach Europe via Morocco, Tunisia
    or Libya. Entering directly by crossing Libya’s Southern border is just as common. The European
    Union estimates that about 90% of illegal migrants come from or through Libya. Taking advantage
    of the porous borders and general lack of state authority in the country, African migrants that travel
    to Libya either search for economic opportunities or use it as a stepping stone to migrate across the
    Mediterranean to Europe.
    28. Another reason why Libya, already home to more than 200,000 internally displaced people
    (IDP), is a particular cause for concern is the proliferation of the slave trade. Many migrants are
    extremely vulnerable to ill treatment and abuse by traffickers and armed groups. The International
    Organization for Migration (IOM) drew attention to this issue in 2017. There are numerous reports
    about Sub-Saharan migrants being sold and bought, then held captive in disastrous conditions,
    where they often suffer numerous forms of abuse, including forced labour, torture and sexual
    violence.
    29. To protect migrants from criminal networks along travelling routes, the African Union, the
    European Union and the United Nations established a joint task force in November 2017. The second
    half of 2017 saw a significant drop in the number of migrants attempting to reach Europe through
    the central Mediterranean. This is likely due in part to the efforts of one-member state, Italy, which
    engaged in a cash-for-migration-control strategy for Libya. The medium-to-longer term impact on
    Libya, particularly with regard to institution building, remains to be seen, as this approach also
    resulted in the co-option of militias which had been deeply involved with human smuggling before.
    More generally, a European focus on limiting the migration flow from the MENA and Sub-Saharan
    regions risks strengthening the power and influence of militias and other groups whose main concern
    is resource predation.
    JIHADISM / MILITANT ORGANISATIONS / TERRORISM
    30. The continuing instability of the MENA region provides favourable conditions for jihadist
    groups, as it facilitates recruitment and allows them to operate relatively freely. This has led to a
    revival of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and allowed Daesh to expand westwards.
    31. In Libya, in addition to divisions along tribal lines, three nominal governments are vying for
    dominance. The resulting political instability and competition for natural resources are key factors of
    the chaos and insecurity in Libya. The country’s fragmentation and its vast ungoverned spaces allow
    non-state actors, including violent extremist groups, to operate and build support. Daesh franchises
    made significant territorial gains in Libya in 2015, making the country its first target to expand outside
    of Iraq and Syria. Although the group lost its stronghold in Sirte in December 2016 and no longer
    controls territory in Libya, it remains active throughout the country. Libya’s precarious security
    situation has serious repercussions on the proliferation of violent extremist groups in the entire
    region. The civil war resulted in the unregulated proliferation of weapons, explosives and military
    equipment throughout the region via established trafficking routes.
    32. The consequences are acutely felt in Tunisia as well, where a surge of terrorist incidents since
    the 2011 uprisings threatens the fragile democratic transition. Terrorist groups increased their
    activities considerably after 2011, as demonstrated by the wave of high-level attacks in 2013 and
    2015. The developments in Tunisia and Libya seem to confirm lessons from Syria and Iraq, “that
    jihadists’ influence is more a product of instability than its primary driver”.
    33. In Egypt, Daesh-affiliated groups continue to wage an insurgency in the Northern part of the
    Sinai Peninsula. While their attacks initially targeted security forces, terrorist groups are increasingly
    177 PC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    7
    focusing on civilians, most notably Coptic Christians and Sufi Muslims. The attack on the al-Rawda
    mosque in November 2017 killed more than 300 people, making it the deadliest terrorist attack in
    Egypt’s recent history. Moreover, jihadist groups have demonstrated their ability to expand their
    activities beyond Northern Sinai to Central and Southern parts of the Peninsula as well as to urban
    centres in the Nile Delta. The security forces’ harsh crackdown on all Islamist groups and the
    government’s heavy-handed approach towards the opposition in the context of the Presidential
    elections in March 2018 risk polarising communities and further fuelling radicalisation.
    34. In addition to jihadi activities in the region, North Africa is one of the top sources of foreign
    fighters who leave their home countries to join militant groups in Syria and Iraq. Tunisia has produced
    the highest number of foreign fighters per capita globally. Authorities in the region have to find ways
    to stem radicalisation before people are able to leave the country. They will eventually have to face
    the challenge of how to prevent returning fighters from filling the ranks of AQIM- and Daesh-affiliates
    in North Africa and reintegrate them into society.
    IV. SECURITY ISSUES IN THE SAHEL AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE STABILITY IN THE
    MENA REGION
    35. Stability in North Africa is not only affected by developments within these countries’ borders,
    but also to a large extent by spill-over from the Sahel region. In the South, the Mediterranean littoral
    states share borders with the Sahelian states of Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad and Sudan, all of
    which face numerous security challenges, including a lack of control over their territories and the
    inability to manage their borders effectively.
    36. Due to weak governance, high levels of population growth, persistent poverty, armed conflict,
    and the devastating consequences of climate change the security situation in the Sahel is extremely
    precarious. The Libyan conflict has further exacerbated the region’s fragile security situation. In
    addition to the high number of IDPs in the county, the fighting has unleashed a stream of displaced
    people, weapons and armed combats from Libya to the Sahel. The collapse of the Libyan state has
    caused a proliferation of non-state actors across borders and regions, rendering the traditional
    division in security terms between North Africa and the Sahel obsolete.
    A. DEVELOPMENTS IN MALI
    37. The 2012 jihadist insurgency in Mali alerted the world to the fragility of the Sahel region. The
    collapse of the Libyan state prompted a surge of arms and trained militants into Mali. Returning
    fighters swelled the ranks of AQIM and affiliated jihadist organisations as well as Tuareg rebellion
    groups in Mali, where they joined forces to launch a large-scale insurgency against the Malian state.
    These groups had widespread access to weapons and held deeply violent and anti-Western
    ideology. The French-led intervention in January 2013, Operation Serval, was aimed at dismantling
    these groups before they gained more power and influence.
    38. Although the intervention managed to push back the insurgency and restored the legitimacy
    of the Malian state, the security situation in Mali’s Northern and Central provinces remains unstable.
    Little progress has been made in implementing the “Bamako Agreement” of 2015, which was
    supposed to initiate an era of peace and stability in the country. As a result, disillusionment and
    frustration among the population are growing – as is the risk that demobilised militants may take up
    arms again. Instead, insecurity has increased and spread to other areas of Mali. Jihadist attacks
    have increased in numbers, sophistication, and scope not only in Northern and Central Mali but also
    in Western Niger and Northern Burkina Faso. There are also signs that Daesh and
    al-Qaeda-affiliated militants cooperate and that fighters from other MENA regions are swelling their
    ranks.
    177 PC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    8
    B. AL-QAEDA IN THE ISLAMIC MAGHREB’S ‘SAHELISATION’
    39. The developments in Mali are indicative of the broader security concerns caused by violent
    extremist groups that emerged in North Africa and shifted their focus to the Sahel. Established during
    the Algerian civil war, the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) continued to operate
    after the war had ended and eventually pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda in 2007. Since then, the
    group has rebranded itself as al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and developed into the
    region’s most significant terrorist organisation in terms of number of members and potential for
    violence.
    40. Rather than defeating the terror organisation, Algerian counterterrorism efforts have pushed
    AQIM to relocate to Algeria’s southern neighbours. There, the group found a safe haven in the Sahel
    region’s vast open spaces and porous borders. Exploiting the Sahelian states’ weak counterterrorism
    capabilities AQIM established itself and forged close ties with local communities and tribes. It was
    able to incorporate pre-existing grievances in the narrative of militant Islamism, for instance with
    parts of the marginalised Tuareg population in Mali and Niger. Over the past decade AQIM was thus
    able to extend its foothold beyond Algeria to Niger, Tunisia, Mauritania, Chad, Libya and Mali.
    C. BOKO HARAM AND THE LAKE CHAD BASIN CRISIS
    41. Besides Libya’s South-West (the Fezzan), the Lake Chad basin is considered a key centre of
    jihadism and a transit hub for smuggling people and goods. The basin region, spanning the borders
    between Chad, Cameroon, Nigeria and Niger, is an example of the devastating consequences of
    environmental degradation and violent conflict. The drying-up of Lake Chad to less than 10% of its
    size in 1963 has had severe consequences for the approximately 50 million people living in the area.
    Water shortages, crop failures and collapsed freshwater fisheries have accelerated poverty and
    tensions between different groups competing for the scarce resources that remain.
    42. Apart from these long-term challenges, the region is strained by an almost decade-long terror
    campaign by the jihadist group Boko Haram. Established in Northern Nigeria in 2002, the group
    became increasingly violent after the death of its founder in 2009 and spread in the broader Lake
    Chad area to Cameroon, Chad and Niger. In 2014, the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF),
    comprising forces from Benin, Cameroon, Chad, Nigeria and, until recently, Niger, launched a
    crackdown on Boko Haram. As a result of growing military pressure, the group’s members split into
    three factions – one extremely violent faction, a second that pledges allegiance to Daesh and a third
    that aligns with al-Qaeda. Boko Haram was classified as the world’s deadliest terrorist group in 2014,
    but casualty numbers dropped significantly following the group’s military defeat by the MNJTF.
    43. Nevertheless, the security situation in the Lake Chad basin remains extremely fragile, causing
    severe humanitarian hardship and security repercussions beyond the directly affected area.
    According to the latest UN report on West Africa and the Sahel, more than 5 million people in the
    basin area are currently receiving humanitarian assistance and some 2.4 million people suffer from
    forced displacement.
    MARITIME SECURITY IN THE GULF OF GUINEA
    44. Another source of instability in the region is the Gulf of Guinea, where piracy has surged in
    recent years. Attacks have primarily taken the form of low-level robberies targeting oil tankers and
    cargo vessels. Recently, however, kidnappings for ransom have become more prevalent, as the
    decline of global oil prices has reduced the financial benefits resulting from oil theft. These attacks
    are increasingly violent with assailants using more sophisticated weaponry such as AK-47s and
    various types of machine guns.
    45. This adversely affects the advancement and prosperity of Africa’s vital blue economy. Ninety
    percent of Africa’s trade is carried by sea with the Gulf of Guinea functioning as an important transit
    177 PC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    9
    hub, most notably for petroleum products. Maritime security is crucial to extract revenue from the
    5.4 million barrels of oil produced in the Gulf every day. In the wrong hands, gains from oil theft may
    contribute to the financing of terrorist activities in the Sahel.
    46. Moreover, piracy poses a direct threat to seafarers and vessels transiting or operating in the
    region, including those flagged by NATO member states. Surpassing the waters off the Horn of Africa
    in terms of piracy and armed robbery at sea, the Gulf of Guinea is now considered to be the most
    dangerous region in the world for seafarers. According to the International Chamber of Commerce,
    there were 46 incidents of piracy and armed robbery in the area in 2017, including 10 incidents of
    kidnappings at sea. The number of unknown cases is estimated to be significantly higher, as
    reporting these incidents negatively affects corporate safety records and has few tangible benefits.
    Western crew members are frequently targeted, as they can be ransomed for more money in case
    they are captured.
    V. REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE MENA REGION AND NATO
    47. In light of the multifaceted challenges emanating from the South, the 2016 Warsaw Summit
    stipulated projecting stability and strengthening security in the MENA region as priority goals for
    NATO. Since then, the Alliance has been involved in the region in a number of ways, including
    military operations, training missions and partnership building.
    48. A NATO Hub for the South, based at NATO’s Joint Force Command in Naples, was discussed
    at the Summit in 2016 and agreed upon by NATO Defence Ministers in February 2017. The Hub,
    formally known as NATO Strategic Direction South (NSD-S), is designed to improve the Alliance’s
    awareness and understanding of the threats coming from Africa and the Middle East through the
    collection and analysis of shared information and intelligence. The Hub for the South will also further
    promote partnership, cooperation and dialogue with MENA partners. As such, the Hub is an
    ambitious project meant to ensure that NATO is ready to project stability in the South at any given
    time, by coordinating and synchronising the Alliance’s activities in a wide range of areas, from
    counter-terrorism to tackling illicit trafficking of weapons, narcotics and human beings.
    49. The Hub, which is an integral part of NATO’s “Package for the South”, was declared fully
    operational at the 2018 NATO Summit. It is a welcome addition to EU-NATO cooperation, as it could
    coordinate with the EU’s Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) in the realm of
    counter-terrorism.
    50. NATO’s maritime operations in the Mediterranean are crucial to NATO efforts to stabilise the
    region. To that end, the Allies agreed to launch Operation Sea Guardian in November 2016. Led by
    NATO’s Allied Maritime Command (MARCOM), Operation Sea Guardian has succeeded Operation
    Active Endeavour, launched in 2001 under the Article 5 framework. In contrast to Active Endeavour,
    which was conceived purely as a counterterrorism mission, Sea Guardian aims to boost maritime
    situational awareness, counter-terrorism efforts, and capacity building in and around the region.
    Moreover, Sea Guardian is also providing the EU’s Operation Sophia with information and logistics
    support in the Mediterranean. NATO Allies have also been involved in the EU training programme
    for the Libyan coastguard to counter irregular migration and smuggling across the Mediterranean.
    51. In response to Libya’s request for NATO’s assistance in providing advice to develop its security
    architecture, the North Atlantic Council agreed in principle to provide advice to Libya in the area of
    defence and security institution building, in accordance with the previous decisions of NATO's Heads
    of State and Government at the Wales and Warsaw Summits. NATO plans to implement a measured
    and step-by-step approach, taking into account the complex and fluid political and security situation
    in the country, in complementarity with the support that is already being provided to Libya bilaterally
    by Allies, as well as by the UN and the EU. The 2018 Brussels Summit affirmed that NATO remains
    committed to providing advice to Libya in the area of defence and security institution building, and
    177 PC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    10
    mentioned the possibility of developing a long-term partnership, which could potentially lead to
    Libya’s membership in the Mediterranean Dialogue.
    52. Allies also decided to support the Global Coalition Against Daesh through the deployment of
    NATO’s AWACS surveillance flights, while several Allies committed to provide air-to-air refuelling
    capabilities. NATO’s first AWACS operations had already started by October 2016. At the 2017
    Brussels Summit, NATO member states decided to formally join the Global Coalition Against Daesh,
    thus stepping up the Alliance’s efforts. As such, AWACS surveillance aircraft flight time sensibly
    increased, and NATO agreed to share information with the Coalition. After Daesh’s territorial losses
    in Syria and Iraq, NATO has recently reaffirmed its commitment to the Global Coalition, as it moves
    from combat operations to stabilisation efforts. NATO’s membership in the Global Coalition enables
    it to take part in the Coalition’s meetings at different levels, including on the coordination of training
    and capacity building.
    53. More recently, Allies have begun to gradually increase their involvement in Iraq. On
    15 February 2018, at the request of the Iraqi government and the Global Coalition Against Daesh,
    NATO Defence Ministers agreed to expand the Alliance’s military training mission in Iraq. Earlier,
    from 2004 to 2011, Allied forces had trained 15,000 Iraqi officers under the NATO Training
    Mission - Iraq (NTM-I). While the mission was discontinued in 2011 due to disagreements over the
    status of forces agreement, the Alliance agreed to resume its training and capacity building activities
    in 2015. In April 2016, NATO forces began training Iraqi officers, first in Jordan and later also in Iraq.
    Training programmes are based on the ‘train-the-trainer’ approach and focus on countering
    improvised explosive devices (IEDs), de-mining, military medicine, and civil-military planning.
    Currently, this mission is based on a small core team, which organises and facilitates mobile training
    teams, i.e. teams that only stay in the country for short periods of time. NATO Secretary-General
    Jens Stoltenberg also signalled that the Alliance is considering a more permanent presence of NATO
    instructors in Iraq and the possibility of building defence schools and academies. At the NATO 2018
    Summit, the Alliance also announced the launch of a non-combat training and capacity building
    mission in Iraq. The role of the mission will be advising Iraqi officials, as well as to “train and advise
    instructors at professional military education institutions.” Overall, NATO’s mission in Iraq will be to
    maintain “a modest and scalable footprint”, while supporting the ongoing efforts of the Coalition and
    other international actors accordingly.
    54. The deteriorating security situation in the Gulf of Guinea prompted regional as well as
    international stakeholders to collaborate in the fight against maritime crime long before 2016. For
    instance, the Gulf of Guinea littoral states agreed to establish integrated maritime security structures
    in 2013. Since then, three regional surveillance centres and two coordination centres have started
    to operate. Other responses to maritime crime in the region have been initiated by the African Union,
    the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Economic Community of Central
    African States (ECCAS), the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the EU and the G7 Friends
    of the Gulf of Guinea (G++FOGG). NATO is contributing to this security architecture with the Maritime
    Domain Awareness for Trade – Gulf of Guinea (MDAT-GoG). Run by the French and British navies,
    the MDAT-GoG pools security updates, reviews risks and provides guidance on vessel operating
    patterns in the Gulf area.
    55. More generally, NATO maintains a good level of cooperation with the African Union (AU).
    NATO first assisted the AU in 2005, under the framework of the African Union Mission in Sudan
    (AMIS), by providing airlift for troop rotations and training, in what was the Alliance’s first operation
    on the African continent. NATO also supported the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) in
    2007, again with airlift support for AU peacekeepers. Aside from specific operations, NATO provides
    continuous operational, logistic and capacity building support, and is involved in the
    operationalisation of the African Standby Force through exercises and training. NATO and the AU
    continue to coordinate their activities and objectives with other organisations, in particular the
    United Nations and the European Union, and with bilateral partners.
    177 PC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    11
    56. In addition to NATO-led operations, Allies contribute to enhancing stability in the South through
    a number of multilateral or bilateral frameworks. In the Sahel region, for instance, Allies are active
    as part of Operation Barkhane (France’s broader regional counter-insurgency campaign that
    superseded Operation Serval), the United Nations Multidimensional Integration Stabilization Mission
    in Mali (MINUSMA), and the European Union’s training missions in Mali and Niger. In 2017, Burkina
    Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Chad launched the Joint Force of the Group of Five for the Sahel
    (G5 Sahel), a 5,000-strong multinational counter-terrorism force, to complement the aforementioned
    missions and prepare for the exit of foreign troops in the long-term. The group is now backed by two
    Security Council resolutions, has set up its headquarters in Sévaré in Mali and completed its first
    mission in the border area of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger last November. However, logistical and
    funding constraints prevent the force from becoming fully operational, which has prompted the EU,
    one of the group’s major donors, to double its financial assistance.
    57. NATO’s Partnership Cooperation Menu (PCM) outlines all the cooperation activities open to
    partners. It comprises a wide range of areas, including activities related to Military Education,
    Training and Doctrine, Defence Policy and Strategy, Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, Defence
    Investment, Civil Emergency Planning, Crisis Management, Armaments and Intelligence.
    Participation by Mediterranean Dialogue (MD) countries in PCM activities has steadily increased
    over the years. In 2016 as well as in 2017, more than 1,000 activities were offered to MD partners.
    58. While NATO efforts to stabilise the MENA region have proved to be at least partially successful,
    they are insufficient to address the multifaceted threats emanating from its Southern flank. In many
    cases, NATO is not – and should not be – the first responder. Instead, the Alliance focuses on
    supporting the efforts of national authorities and multilateral organisations, most notably the AU, the
    EU and the UN, which are at the forefront of addressing security challenges in the South.
    VI. CONCLUSIONS
    59. The security challenges emanating from the southern flank remain of serious concern to the
    Alliance which has therefore a strategic interest in a stable southern neighbourhood. NATO does
    make an important contribution to the stability of its MENA partners through its political dialogue and
    particularly through its assistance to MD and Istanbul Cooperative Initiative (ICI) partners. At the
    2018 Brussels Summit NATO Heads of State and Government confirmed this commitment and they
    decided to build a stronger and more dynamic relationship with NATO’s southern partners.
    60. These decisions represent a gradual honing of NATO’s cooperation with the Southern
    partners; they will deepen the footprint of the Alliance in the region, albeit only incrementally. As the
    threats from the South are more diffuse than those emanating from its Eastern flank the Alliance has
    now a “Framework for the South” - but not a fully-fledged strategy towards the MENA. This reflects
    the constraints that NATO as an organisation is facing when tackling the challenges emanating from
    the region. The underlying causes promoting instability and conflict on NATO’s southern flank are
    manifold. They include, among others, acute food and water crises as a result of environmental
    problems, a youth bulge and hyper-urbanisation, as well as lack of social and economic opportunities
    which facilitate radicalisation and all kinds of extremism. These factors are aggravated by poor
    governance and weak state institutions. As a political-military organisation the Alliance does not
    dispose of the necessary instruments to address these issues or to assist MENA partner countries
    in tackling them. Moreover, the expectations and demands of NATO’s MD and ICI partners also
    differ while their bilateral relationships are sometimes complicated, if not partly antagonistic.
    61. So where should NATO go from here? In the view of your Rapporteur, the Alliance needs to
    address the immediate security threats – which currently are in Iraq and Syria, as well as in Libya.
    62. Libya remains a security flashpoint. As long as there is no unified government there will be no
    progress and the country will remain in a state of chaos. The involvement of foreign actors which
    177 PC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    12
    pursue competing agendas and support rival factions is a main factor that has impeded the
    implementation of the UN action plan. NATO Allies should therefore agree on a joint policy towards
    Libya and use their diplomatic leverage to influence outside actors to force the actors on the ground
    to agree to implement the UN action plan. Following this, NATO should provide advice to Libya in
    the area of defence and security institution building.
    63. While NATO is not a player in Syria, the Alliance has a strategic interest in ending the civil war
    in the country. While the options for NATO, and NATO Allies, appear limited for the time being,
    NATO should obviously continue its engagement within the international coalition fighting Daesh to
    defeat the terror organisation on the battlefield. What is more, NATO Allies need to consider if and
    how they will be prepared to be involved in any post-conflict settlement. While the Assad regime
    appears to have won on the battlefield the Allies have leverage in shaping post-war Syria as the
    reconstruction of the country is likely to require some kind of contribution on their part. To that end,
    NATO Allies need to develop a common approach.
    64. In Iraq, the Allies need to sufficiently resource the non-combat training and capacity-building
    mission that was agreed upon at the 2018 Brussels Summit. Moreover, NATO Allies should consider
    additional measures to assist Iraq in its efforts to stabilise the country and fight terrorism. For
    example, in order to improve the effectiveness and sustainment of the Iraqi security structures NATO
    could expand its activities that promote transparency, accountability and good governance within
    Iraq’s national security institutions and other government structures. NATO has already organised
    several workshops in the context of NATO Building Integrity Policy.
    65. An effective way for the Alliance to increase stability on its southern flank is to help its regional
    partners build resilience against security threats. NATO should therefore continue its engagement
    with and support for its southern partners. What is more, the Alliance should also explore ways to
    further develop its relations regional organisations like the League of Arab States, the Gulf
    Cooperation Council, as well as with the AU. NATO should coordinate its initiatives with the
    European Union. In contrast to the Alliance, the European Union - which includes 22 of the
    29 Member states of the Alliance and shares the same interests in the MENA region - is playing an
    important role in economic development, the promotion of good governance, democracy, rule of law
    and human rights. For example, the European Union’s counter-terrorism policy comprises measures
    which are crucial in improving governance of the partner countries in the South. If applied effectively
    this can help Iraq, as well as other MENA countries, to address the underlying causes that drive
    extremism and allow terror organisations as Daesh to thrive. However, NATO and the EU can only
    provide assistance; the ultimate responsibility for developing good governance rests with the partner
    countries. Therefore, NATO needs to encourage MD partner countries to work to foster inter-ethnic
    and inter-sectarian reconciliation and to pursue an inclusive political process.
    66. Finally, your Rapporteur wants to stress once again that it is crucial that NATO Allies provide
    the necessary resources to implement the decisions already taken as well as the ones they will take
    in the future. If the Allies were to limit themselves to distributing mere declarations without offering
    the necessary military hardware to underpin the operations this would not only be counterproductive
    to achieving the goals for these operations, but it would also be counterproductive in that it would
    undermine NATO’s credibility in the longer term.
    67. NATO’s Southern Flank will remain unstable and will require the attention of the Allies. Your
    Rapporteur intends to continue to focus on this region.
    177 PC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    13
    BIBLIOGRAPHY
    AFP, “30,000 flee in Syria as UN fears century's 'worst' crisis“, 10 September 2018
    https://www.afp.com/en/news/15/30000-flee-syria-un-fears-centurys-worst-crisis-doc-18z95g2
    Abdel Ghafar, Adel, “A stable Egypt for a stable region: Socio-economic challenges and prospects“,
    European Parliament Directorate-General for External Policies, (EP/EXPO/B/AFET/2017/06)
    Barfi, Barak, “Turkey advances to expel Kurds from Afrin”, Jane's Intelligence Review, 12 February 2018.
    Boserup, Rasmus Alenius; Martinez, Luis, “Countering jihadist mobilization: EU has a stake in the
    struggle against jihadism in the Sahel”, DIIS Impact, 23 November 2017,
    https://www.diis.dk/en/research/countering-jihadist-mobilization-eu-has-a-stake-in-the-struggle-
    against-jihadism-in-the
    Boukhars, Anouar, “The Promise and Peril of the Maghreb: Risks and Instability in the Maghreb and
    Western Mediterranean”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 31 December 2016.
    Coker, Margaret; Hassan, Falih, “Iraq Prime Minister Declares Victory Over ISIS”, The New York Times,
    9 December 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/09/world/middleeast/iraq-isis-haider-al-
    abadi.html
    Dadush, Uri; Demertzis, Maria; Wolff, Guntram, “Europe’s role in North Africa: development, investment
    and migration”, Bruegel, 2017.
    Deutsch, Anthony, “How Syria continued to gas its people as the world looked on”, Reuters, 17 August
    2017, https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/mideast-crisis-syria-chemicalweapons/
    Dubin, Rhys, “Iraq’s Militias set Their Sights on Political Power”, Foreign Policy, 30 January 2018,
    http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/30/iraqs-militias-are-setting-their-sights-on-power/
    European External Action Service, “EU mobilises the international community for Africa's Sahel region“,
    European Commission – Press release, 23 February 2018, http://europa.eu/rapid/press-
    release_IP-18-1142_en.htm
    Fallini, Roberto, “Al-Qaeda: A growing threat in Sahel”, Jane’s Terrorism & Insurgency Monitor,
    28 September 2017.
    Ferdi, “Linking security and development – A Plea for the Sahel”, Fondation pour les études et recherches
    sur le développement international, 2016.
    Freeman, Laura, “Environmental Change, Migration, and Conflict in Africa: A Critical Examination of the
    Interconnections”, Journal of Environment & Development, vol. 26, no. 4, 2017.
    Ghanem-Yazbeck, Dalia, “Jihadism In The Sahel: Aqim’s Strategic Maneuvers for Long-Term Regional
    Dominance”, Carnegie Middle East Center, 23 June 2017, http://carnegie-
    mec.org/2017/06/23/jihadism-in-sahel-aqim-s-strategic-maneuvers-for-long-term-regional-
    dominance-pub-71413
    Gurcan, Metin, “Turkey works to secure its future relevance in Syria”, Al- Monitor, 23 February 2018,
    https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/02/turkey-syria-ankara-erecting-deescalation-
    outposts-idlib.html
    Hartley, Will, “JTIC Brief: Fighting continues in Syria’s Eastern Ghouta despite UN resolution and
    implementation of ‘humanitarian window’”, Jane’s Terrorism & Insurgency Monitor, 27 February
    2018.
    Institute for Economics and Peace, “Global Terrorism Index 2017. Measuring and understanding the
    impact of terrorism”, Institute for Economics and Peace, 2017.
    International Crisis Group, “How the Islamic State Rose, Fell and Could Rise Again in the Maghreb”,
    Middle East and North Africa Report No. 178, International Crisis Group, 24 July 2017a.
    International Crisis Group, “How Libya’s Fezzan Became Europe’s New Border”, Middle East and North
    Africa Report No. 179, International Crisis Group, 31 July 2017b.
    International Crisis Group, “Oil and Borders: How to Fix Iraq’s Kurdish Crisis”, Crisis Group Middle East
    Briefing N°55, 17 October 2017c.
    International Crisis Group, “Finding the Right Role for the G5 Sahel Joint Force”, Africa Report No. 258,
    International Crisis Group, 12 December 2017d.
    International Crisis Group, “Tackling the MENA Region’s Intersecting Conflicts”, 22 December 2017d.
    International Crisis Group, “Egypt’s Expanding Jihadist Threat”, Middle East and North Africa
    Commentary, 31 January 2018a.
    International Crisis Group, “Averting Disaster in Syria’s Idlib Province”, Crisis Group Middle East Briefing
    No. 56, 9 February 2018b.
    International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2018, London: Routledge, 2018.
    177 PC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    14
    International Labour Organization, “Youth and Employment in North Africa: A Regional Overview”,
    International Labour Organization, 2017.
    Kestler-D’Amours, Jillian, “Tunisians march on seventh anniversary of uprising”, Al Jazeera, 14 January
    2018, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/tunisians-march-seventh-anniversary-uprising-
    180114130043892.html
    Khodr, Zeina, “Syria: Chemical attack suspected in Eastern Ghouta siege”, Al Jazeera, 26 February 2018,
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/02/syria-chemical-attack-suspected-eastern-ghouta-siege-
    180226142923247.html
    Lloyd, Robert B., “Ungoverned Spaces and Regional Insecurity: The Case of Mali”, SAIS Review, vol. 36,
    no. 1, 2016.
    Malik, Hamdi, “The Future of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces”, Carnegie Endowment for International
    Peace, 21 September 2017; http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/73186
    Mansour, Renad, “Iraq After the Fall of ISIS: The Struggle for the State”, Chatham House Research
    Paper, Middle East and North Africa Programme, 4 July 2017.
    Monnier, Oliver, “Islamic State, al-Qaeda Support Fuels Attacks in West Africa“, Bloomberg News,
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-02/trump-opens-door-to-trade-war-as-eu-
    threatens-iconic-u-s-brands
    NATO, “The Secretary-General’s Annual Report 2017”, 15 March 2018,
    https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2018_03/20180315_SG_AnnualReport_en
    .pdf
    Oyewole, Samuel, “Suppressing maritime piracy in the Gulf of Guinea: the prospects and challenges of
    the regional players”, Australian Journal of Maritime and Ocean Affairs, vol. 8, no. 2, 2016.
    Proudfoot, Philip, “Syria’s new constitution and the two peace processes”, Jane's Terrorism & Insurgency
    Monitor, 16 February 2018.
    Sattar, Omar, “Conference for Iraq draws investors instead of donors”, Al-Monitor, 23 February 2018,
    https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/02/kuwait-iraq-reconstruction-investment.html
    Sloat, Amanda, “Turkey Wants to Crush U.S. Allies in Syria. That Shouldn’t Surprise Anybody.”, Foreign
    Policy, 23 January 2018, http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/23/turkey-wants-to-crush-u-s-allies-in-
    syria-that-shouldnt-surprise-anybody/
    Sow, Mariama, “Figure of the week: The shrinking Lake Chad”, Brookings Institution, 9 February 2017,
    https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2017/02/09/figure-of-the-week-the-shrinking-lake-
    chad/
    The World Bank, “The Toll of War: The Economic and Social Consequences of the Conflict in Syria”,
    World Bank Group, 2017a, http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/syria/publication/the-toll-of-war-
    the-economic-and-social-consequences-of-the-conflict-in-syria
    The World Bank, “Wold Bank Open Data. Unemployment, youth total”, 2017b,
    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.1524.ZS
    UN, “Report of the Secretary-General on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya”, 22 August 2017a
    (S/2017/726).
    UN, “Report of the Secretary-General on the Joint Force of the Group of Five for the Sahel”, 16 October
    2017b, (S/2071/869).
    UN, “Report of the Secretary-General on the activities of the United Nations Office for West Africa and
    the Sahel”, 26 December 2017c (S/2017/1104).
    UN, “Briefing to the UN Security Council by the Special Envoy of the UN Secretary-General for Syria”,
    Mr. Staffan de Mistura”, United Nations, 14 February 2018,
    https://www.unog.ch/unog/website/news_media.nsf/(httpNewsByYear_en)/358B89CFD4A5B70F
    C1258235002FA900?OpenDocument
    UNDP, “Tackling the crisis in the Lake Chad Basin”, United Nations Development Programme,
    23 February 2017, http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/blog/2017/2/23/Tackling-the-crisis-
    in-the-Lake-Chad-Basin.html
    Vervaeke, Alice, “Gulf of Guinea: pirates and other tales”, EUISS Alert, 2017.
    Walter, Barbara F., “The Jihadist Threat Won’t End With ISIS’ Defeat. Why Similar Groups Will continue
    to Emerge”, Foreign Affairs, 22 December 2017.
    _______________________
    POLITICAL COMMITTEE (PC)
    Sub-Committee on NATO Partnerships
    (PCNP)
    SECURITY IN THE WESTERN
    BALKANS
    Report
    by Raynell ANDREYCHUK (Canada)
    Rapporteur
    178 PCNP 18 E rev.1 fin | Original: English | 21 September 2018
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    I. INTRODUCTION – THE WESTERN BALKANS AND EURO-ATLANTIC SECURITY........1
    II. REGIONAL DYNAMICS – THE LEGACIES OF THE PAST AND CURRENT
    CHALLENGES IN THE WESTERN BALKANS ..................................................................1
    A. ECONOMY: THE STATE OF PLAY..........................................................................1
    B. NATIONALISM AND BILATERAL DISPUTES ..........................................................2
    C. TOWARDS MORE REGIONAL COOPERATION .....................................................3
    D. GOVERNANCE AND RULE OF LAW.......................................................................4
    III. THE IMPACT OF A CHANGING SECURITY ENVIRONMENT ON THE WESTERN
    BALKANS..........................................................................................................................7
    A. CHINA AND THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE......................................................7
    B. RUSSIA: HISTORICAL INFLUENCE, COMPETING PRESENCE ............................7
    C. WESTERN BALKANS: A TRANSIT REGION...........................................................8
    D. ISLAMISM, RADICALISATION AND FOREIGN FIGHTERS...................................11
    IV. THE WESTERN BALKANS AND EURO-ATLANTIC INTEGRATION ..............................12
    A. NATO’S ROLE IN THE WESTERN BALKANS: PEACEBUILDING AND
    ENLARGEMENT ....................................................................................................12
    B. EU: THE BUMPY ROAD TOWARDS MEMBERSHIP.............................................13
    V. CONCLUSIONS: NATO AND THE WESTERN BALKANS – THE WAY AHEAD .............15
    BIBLIOGRAPHY..............................................................................................................16
    178 PCNP 18 E rev.1 fin
    1
    I. INTRODUCTION – THE WESTERN BALKANS AND EURO-ATLANTIC SECURITY
    1. Few regions in the world can claim a cultural, religious and demographic diversity richer than
    the Western Balkans. One of the most famous quotes from Josip Broz Tito, former President of
    Yugoslavia, states it quite clearly: “I am the leader of one country which has two alphabets, three
    languages, four religions, five nationalities, six republics, surrounded by seven neighbours, a country
    in which live eight ethnic minorities” (Hunter, 2017). As NATO focused on Afghanistan, the fight
    against extremist groups and the challenges from the South, and an increasingly assertive Russia,
    the Western Balkans region has somehow fallen off the radar screen.
    2. This dearth of attention to the Balkans may also be attributed to the prolonged period of relative
    stability that the region has enjoyed. After the Yugoslav wars in the 1990s and early 2000s, NATO
    and the EU increased their presence in the region providing peacekeeping and state-building
    capabilities to the war-ridden countries. This increased involvement and the accession to either
    organisation by some of the newly independent states fostered a widespread assumption that
    democratic reform in the region had now become irreversible. However, this was overly optimistic,
    as developments in recent years have shown.
    3. This short paper provides a general overview of the security situation in the Western Balkans.
    It discusses the legacies of the Yugoslav era and its violent conclusion, the emerging security
    challenges in the region, as well as the region’s Euro-Atlantic integration. Finally, the report
    recommends that NATO and the European Union become more engaged and encourage the
    countries of the region to continue their reforms with tangible and achievable goals, which will benefit
    both the Western Balkans and the Euro-Atlantic area.
    II. REGIONAL DYNAMICS – THE LEGACIES OF THE PAST AND CURRENT CHALLENGES
    IN THE WESTERN BALKANS
    A. ECONOMY: THE STATE OF PLAY
    Regional Cooperation Council, “Balkan Barometer 2017”
    178 PCNP 18 E rev.1 fin
    2
    4. Despite predicted improvements, many Western Balkan countries continued to struggle in
    2018. At the end of 2017, the World Bank anticipated economic growth to stay above 3% for 2018
    and 2019, due to rising consumption, low inflation rates and the improvement of the economic
    situation worldwide. However, even if this growth figure could be achieved, it would take the Western
    Balkans 60 years to reach income levels on par with the EU average. Furthermore, several countries
    have still not overcome the 2008 financial crisis. Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and
    Montenegro have not yet returned to a GDP level on par with what it was prior to the break-up of
    Yugoslavia. Unsurprisingly, there is significant discontent with the economic situation among the
    populations of the Western Balkans.
    5. Unemployment remains the main economic concern throughout the Western Balkans.
    According to the World Bank, it is one of the main factors hindering the development of the region;
    the situation is particularly worrisome for younger generations, with youth unemployment rates
    surpassing 50% in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia*
    , BiH and Kosovo. While highly
    educated youth are able to find a job more easily, the non-competitiveness of salaries encourages
    them to migrate, causing a brain drain which puts an additional burden on an already aging and
    shrinking population. This phenomenon is particularly harmful for the less populous countries of the
    region. High unemployment rates and massive migration make Western Balkans households heavily
    reliant on remittances. The World Bank estimated that levels of remittance in the Western Balkans
    are on average around 10% of GDP, with the peak being at 17% in Kosovo. While remittances are
    believed to be helpful in the short run, they damage national competitiveness and increase the risk
    of government corruption.
    B. NATIONALISM AND BILATERAL DISPUTES
    6. The Yugoslav wars remain in the memories of many people in the newly formed Western
    Balkan countries. Coming to grips with the past has only been partially achieved and reconciliation
    among the peoples of the Western Balkans is still a work in progress. In a region where historic
    conflicts, ethnicity and religion are still entrenched, nationalism can all-too-easily be exploited by
    populists. In this political climate, underlying tensions can resurface and be manipulated at any time.
    The assassination in January 2018 of Oliver Ivanovic, a controversial Kosovo Serb politician who
    supported the integration of the Serbians living in Northern Kosovo is a reminder of the enduring
    tensions and risks caused by nationalism and border disputes in the region (Gallucci, 2018). Even
    more telling of the depth of issues surrounding these disputes is that following the murder of Ivanovic
    * Turkey recognises the Republic of Macedonia with its constitutional name.
    178 PCNP 18 E rev.1 fin
    3
    the Belgrade and Pristina governments recognised the need to cooperate on the investigation, yet
    months later had failed to do so.
    7. Building trust among the countries of the Western Balkans has been a cumbersome process.
    A climate of general mistrust among Western Balkan countries has created an environment where
    countries tend to shun cooperation with each other. This is an obvious obstacle to Euro-Atlantic
    integration, as cooperation would facilitate and speed up necessary reforms. As a matter of fact, all
    the Western Balkan countries still have at least one territorial controversy with one of their
    neighbours. This is a serious issue and the EU Enlargement Strategy of February 2018, in a clear
    change of policy, stresses that no country will be allowed to join if it still has pending bilateral
    disputes.
    8. While most of these territorial disputes appear manageable in the short- or medium term, two
    major issues have prevented closer cooperation between the countries of the region.
    - Serbia, taking into account UNSCR 1244, still regards Kosovo as an integral part of its territory.
    The two parties have failed to make any step forward since the EU-brokered 2013 Brussels
    Agreement, which has faced serious implementation issues (Phillips, 2017).
    - The name dispute with Greece has blocked the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s bids
    to both the EU and NATO for many years. However, in mid-June 2018, following a new round
    of negotiations Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Zoran Zaev, Prime Minister of the
    former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, announced a historic agreement on the name issue.
    However, given the nationalistic protests in both countries, it remains to be seen if the
    population will accept the agreement (Casule, 2018).
    At the time of writing, the first hurdle to be cleared is a referendum set for 30 September in Macedonia
    where the public will be asked “Are you for EU and NATO membership by accepting the agreement
    between the Republic of Macedonia and the Republic of Greece?” Recent polls in the former
    Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia suggest that there is no consensus on the name question.
    Meanwhile in Greece, a recent opinion poll by the Proto Thema newspaper showed that “up to 70
    percent of Greeks object to the name compromise”.
    9. The territorial disputes in the Western Balkans are based on ethnic or religious divisions. This
    is, in effect, both the cause and the result of the split-up of Yugoslavia. Some observers suggested
    that one of the possible agreements between Serbia and Kosovo would envisage the province of
    Northern Kosovo, populated by ethnic Serbs, being conceded in exchange for the recognition of
    independence. While some locals have sought this resolution, it has until recently not been viewed
    favourably by the NATO Allies and the EU, who now seem more open to the idea. The EU High
    Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini, has indicated she wants
    an agreement between Belgrade and Pristina to be reached by the end of her term, and the US
    National Security advisor John Bolton has stated that he no longer opposes the idea (The Economist,
    2018). Reasoning along those lines, however, would open a Pandora’s box of territorial claims - the
    most concerning being the Serb-majority Bosnian constituency of Republika Srpska - which would
    risk altering the current precarious stability of the region (The Economist, 2018).
    C. TOWARDS MORE REGIONAL COOPERATION
    10. For too long, the countries of the Western Balkans have regarded their relations with their
    neighbours as a zero-sum game, which has prevented them from addressing the underlying issues,
    such as the dire economic situation which continues to hamper progress. At this point in time, all the
    Western Balkan countries have a lower GDP than any other successful applicant to the EU at the
    time of entry (Peel and Buckley, 2018).
    178 PCNP 18 E rev.1 fin
    4
    11. It is therefore necessary to encourage countries to start to pursue mutual, overarching goals
    and overcome parochial interests. Valuable time has been lost, but there is hope in sight. For
    example, the EU Western Balkans Summit of May 2018 emphasised increasing connectivity in areas
    from infrastructure creation, notably highways and rail links, to expanding the EU’s Energy Union
    into the Western Balkans through the completion of a Regional Electricity Market and the creation of
    a single regulatory space under the Energy Community Treaty. These commitments follow last year’s
    EU Western Balkans Summit of July 2017 which laid out a roadmap to improve regional integration.
    At the Summit, the Western Balkan countries signed the Transport Community Treaty, with the
    objective of building new infrastructure projects and improving existing ones. The EU will provide
    part of the funds, with the goal of attracting new investors in the medium term. The Western Balkan
    countries also agreed to form a Regional Economic Area (REA) to facilitate the flow of goods,
    services, capital and highly-skilled labour. The project will not be EU-led, implementation will depend
    on the goodwill of the parties. The creation of the REA is an important step forward. It is not an
    alternative to EU membership, but it can help advance necessary reforms in the economic realm,
    thus facilitating accession to the EU.
    12. It is especially regrettable that the declaration to establish the Regional Commission for the
    Establishment of Facts on War Crimes and Other Serious Violations of Human Rights on the Territory
    of Yugoslavia (RECOM), was not signed at the Summit in London in July 2018. Prevailing issues of
    competing narratives of the 1990s wars and frequent political tensions that these narratives facilitate
    were to be addressed by a common fact-finding mission which would be a major step toward regional
    reconciliation. It is hoped that RECOM, an initiative born out of regional civil society cooperation, will
    be established in the future.
    D. GOVERNANCE AND RULE OF LAW
    13. Ever since the break-up of Yugoslavia, the dynamics between the newly formed states in the
    region have been characterised by regional and intra-national tensions. Differences of language,
    religion and ethnicity were exploited by populist and national leaders, who have all-too-often fuelled
    them for political and personal gain. Magnifying and distorting populist and nationalistic themes, such
    as playing up quarrels with bordering countries and ethnic minorities, has led to a marginalisation of
    economic reform in public discourse in the countries of the region. In the past, the political elites in
    the Western Balkans have focused more on maintaining the status quo that has kept them in power
    than on pushing for necessary reforms (Less, 2016; Mujanovic, 2017).
    178 PCNP 18 E rev.1 fin
    5
    14. As a result, the countries of the Western Balkans are still grappling with longstanding structural
    deficiencies of the socialist era. There has been some process in introducing Foreign Direct
    Investment (FDI)-friendly policies, with FYR Macedonia rising to 11th
    in the World Bank’s Doing
    Business Rankings, and Montenegro, Serbia and Kosovo all being top 50. However, the industrial
    sector remains uncompetitive and needs urgent modernisation, the banking system is weak, and the
    poor regional economic integration is further impaired by underdeveloped infrastructure. Corruption
    even at the highest institutional level remains widespread, to the point that analysts have observed
    symptoms of state capture (Fouéré and Blockmans, 2017). In Transparency International’s
    Corruption Perceptions Index Western Balkan countries continue to trail behind their European
    neighbours, with transparency rankings ranging between 64th
    (Montenegro) and 107th
    (the former
    Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia).
    15. In the countries aspiring to NATO and/or EU membership the adoption of anti-corruption
    measures encouraged and promoted by the EU – such as the implementation of preventive
    anti-corruption bodies, of national anti-corruption strategies, and of the Regional Anti-Corruption
    Initiative (RAI) – were often not implemented and had little effect. Yet, addressing rule of law on a
    regional basis has left reforms vague and does not allow for targeted improvements from the different
    sets of problems that individual nations within the Western Balkans are facing. Moreover, within each
    individual country, improvements by law enforcement agencies and the judiciary in applying the law
    still do not root out low-level corruption, resulting in low levels of trust in the judiciary (Marovic, 2017).
    According to the latest Balkan Barometer, 64% of people in the Western Balkans do not trust their
    courts and judiciary, 71% perceive it as not independent, and 75% agree that the judiciary is affected
    by corruption (RCC, 2018).
    16. In 2016, according to the EU Communication on the status of enlargement, Western Balkan
    countries had made little to no progress on the status of corruption since their applications, with one
    country even sliding back. The Commission reported that the main obstacle towards reform is the
    lack of political will to implement the legislation in practice, while existing anti-corruption bodies are
    systematically and intentionally hampered by limited human and financial resources. The 2017
    Freedom House’s Nations in Transit report highlights that civil society in the Western Balkans is
    under constant threat, while elections are constantly plagued by visible irregularities. While the EU
    Enlargement Strategy of 2018 does not provide an assessment of the current status of the fight
    against corruption, its stark and frank language leaves no doubt that prosperity and a better quality
    of life in the region can be reached only through serious measures against corruption for it to be
    “rooted out without compromise”.
    178 PCNP 18 E rev.1 fin
    6
    17. The problems of poor governance and corruption have been facilitated by Western tolerance
    of these practices, participants of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s 96th Rose-Roth seminar that
    took place on 7-9 November 2017 in Ljubljana, Slovenia, learned. As the EU attempts to temper
    “enlargement fatigue” it has rewarded pro-EU individuals or parties despite shortcomings vis-à-vis
    the rule of law. This is also made worse by fears of regional instability present since the 1990s,
    leading to what experts call a ‘retreat into stabilocracy’ – “the search for stability in Europe’s periphery
    has motivated EU leaders to turn a blind eye to the intimidation of opposition and creeping
    authoritarianism” (Tcherneva, 2017; Marovic, 2018).The region would be well served by a far higher
    degree of transparency and accountability. All too often, cronyism and corruption are at the
    foundation of wealth distribution, as political elites are motivated by a fear of losing access to public
    monies, while voters are driven by the potential for patronage awards. Avenues must therefore be
    opened up for new political actors.
    18. The current state of freedom of the media across all countries of the region is also alarming.
    The Media Clientelism Index of 2017 indicated that the situation for media freedoms in the Western
    Balkans countries has gradually gotten worse during the 2016/2017 period. The report noted such
    problems as “non-transparent political and financial influence” i.e. “stagnation of media reforms,
    dubious transfer of ownership… and penetration of organized crime in media ownership”.
    Additionally, the issue of “attacks on journalists and editors as well as on independent media outlets”
    was observed in all countries across the Western Balkans. As the existing legislation to protect
    media freedom largely goes ignored, media bias is a serious issue due to clientelism, politicisation,
    corruption and insufficient political will to promote pluralism. Public service broadcasters have
    structural flaws, making the news they produce unreliable: the broken and non-transparent funding
    model causes their editorial policies to be very vulnerable to external pressure. Furthermore,
    countries are not inclined to share precise information about the ownership of media outlets, nor
    about the level of public financing towards private media, raising reasonable doubts about their
    impartiality (Lilyanova, 2017b).
    19. Independent reporters are often victims of physical and verbal intimidations, according to the
    Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN), which monitors threats and attacks against freedom
    of speech across south-east Europe. The World Press Freedom Index by Reporters without Borders
    shows that freedom of the media in the region has consistently declined in the last decade.
    178 PCNP 18 E rev.1 fin
    7
    III. THE IMPACT OF A CHANGING SECURITY ENVIRONMENT ON THE WESTERN
    BALKANS
    20. The complex situation in the Western Balkans is further compounded by external factors and
    external actors.
    A. CHINA AND THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE
    21. Although a relatively new player in the Western Balkans, China’s economic and financial clout
    in the region has increased significantly in recent years. Since 2012, China’s 16 + 1 model has
    focused on Chinese engagement with 16 European countries – 11 EU Member States plus 5 nations
    in the Western Balkans. Despite the model being set up as 16 + 1 in reality most of the deals struck
    are bilateral between China and one of the 16 European nations rather than deals comprising many
    nations. Of the $9.4bn worth of investment deals the 16 + 1 has brought to Europe, around $4.9bn
    is concentrated in the 5 Balkans nations – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, the former Yugoslav
    Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia. This comes even though the 5 non-EU states
    have a GDP roughly one-sixteenth the size of the 11 EU Member States (Hillman, 2018). Chinese
    investment in the region has begun to fill a void for the Western Balkans as many western nations
    and firms have financially ignored infrastructure improvements in these nations.
    22. Chinese projects in the Western Balkans are an aspect of its growing global interests and
    activities, known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI is an ambitious project proposed by
    the Chinese President Xi Jinping, to create new sea and land routes that resemble the old silk road,
    connecting east and west. It has brought much investment to south-eastern Europe where projects
    focus on transportation infrastructure. China is particularly engaged in Serbia; Beijing and Belgrade
    have also taken steps to improve relations by establishing visa free travel which began in 2017. They
    are aligned on several foreign policy dossiers, including the non-recognition of Kosovo – due to
    China’s own separatist regions of Tibet and Xinjiang. Increasing Chinese activities in the Western
    Balkans highlight the need for the EU to remain engaged in the Western Balkans, also because the
    sustainability of some of the infrastructure projects and their compliance with EU laws are in question.
    23. China has also invested in Albania, Bosnia, and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.
    Recipient countries in the region see Chinese investments, which often come in the form of a loan,
    as good, and perhaps also sometimes as a preferable alternative to the loans of the EU because the
    former are generally not linked to conditions relating to reforms. This is also combined with the fact
    that many Western nations remain wary of investing in the region.
    B. RUSSIA: HISTORICAL INFLUENCE, COMPETING PRESENCE
    24. In contrast to China, Russia has strong historical connections to the Western Balkans.
    Moscow’s engagement in the region is also due to the close cultural, linguistic and religious
    similarities between Russians and Orthodox Slavs. In particular, the connection with Serbia is quite
    strong at a political level, as Russia firmly opposes Kosovo’s independence and vetoed a
    UNSC resolution which would have qualified the massacre of Srebrenica a genocide. While Russia’s
    engagement with the Western Balkans receded in the early 2000s, Moscow asserted its presence
    again in the past decade under President Vladimir Putin. By offering incentives, e.g., via loans,
    energy projects, trade and other investments, Russia has increased its engagement with the region,
    thereby trying to delay the integration of the Western Balkans into the EU. Moreover, Moscow is
    using every opportunity, including corruption and bribes, and at times the Russian Orthodox Church,
    to advance its interests and to bolster anti-Western sentiment, in particular among Serbs, and to
    undermine Western influence throughout the region. Russia’s efforts in the region are facilitated by
    entrenched authoritarian elites, who are frustrated that the EU accession process is not proceeding
    fast enough, and have stalled reform processes. At the same time, the economic situation in Russia
    and the weak rouble limit Moscow’s ability to compete with the EU at a regional level.
    25. Russia’s dominance, as the main gas exporter to Serbia, the former Yugoslav Republic of
    Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, allows for it to utilise one of its primary geopolitical
    178 PCNP 18 E rev.1 fin
    8
    leverage points - energy politics - across the region. Russia is actively exploiting the dependency of
    the countries of the region on energy deliveries. Russia is not only trying to maintain its dominant
    energy position, but even to expand it. However, it is unclear whether Russia will be able to succeed,
    as some of the announced projects, such as the Druzhba-Adria pipelines or the South Stream
    pipeline, are either delayed or put on ice. On any other economic issue, ranging from external aid to
    FDI, the EU’s presence greatly outmatches Russia’s.
    Martin Russell, “Russia in the Western Balkans”, EPRS, July 2017
    26. As a result, Russia is far from being capable of significantly moulding the future of the region.
    For the Western Balkans, the strategy envisaged is subtler, related to the already mentioned Russian
    cultural and historical ‘soft power’. In this sense, Russia is trying to establish itself as a key player in
    the information sector: the infamous Sputnik news agency opened in Belgrade in 2014 and is
    providing its typically serviceable anti-Western narrative. Sputnik contributes to polarising public
    opinion, presenting distorted and biased versions of the EU and NATO’s contributions to the region
    (Byrne, 2017). Moreover, Russia provides support for civil society organisations and political parties
    which are aligned with its political agenda. These policies can best be summed up as “crude
    opportunism” as in the Balkans “[Russia’s] goal is to undercut and upset the existing institutions and
    rules set by the West” (Bechev, 2017).
    27. While current Russian engagement with the region can certainly be seen as an interference in
    Euro-Atlantic integration, it is an indirect admission that the Kremlin’s influence in the Western
    Balkans cannot go past “spoiler tactics”. The most recent example of such tactics has been noted
    by the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia PM Zoran Zaev’s allegations that attempts to disrupt
    FYR Macedonia’s name referendum in September can be traced to Russia. As a result, in July
    Greece expelled two Russian diplomats for trying to undermine the recent name deal with the former
    Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Moreover, unlike NATO and the EU, Russia has no boots on the
    ground, economic relations with the region are decreasing and there are no plans to enlarge either
    the Eurasian Economic Union or the Collective Security Treaty Organisation to include the Western
    Balkans, providing for few tangible Russian avenues in the region (Bechev, 2017).
    C. WESTERN BALKANS: A TRANSIT REGION
    28. The geostrategic positioning of the Western Balkans between Europe’s West, East, and the
    Mediterranean Sea has since the end of the Cold War turned it into a transit region. In the midst of
    liberalisation and privatisation, a series of wars, and political transition away from communism, the
    Balkans became an area for the illicit trade of goods from Asia and Africa into Western Europe, and
    more recently a corridor in the refugee crisis.
    178 PCNP 18 E rev.1 fin
    9
    29. The European refugee crisis started in 2015 and affected, if indirectly, the Western Balkans.
    At first, countries opted to facilitate the movement of asylum seekers; then, pressure from bordering
    EU member states led to a domino effect of border closures (Greider, 2017).
    Alice Greider, “Outsourcing Migration Management: The Role of the Western Balkans in the European
    Refugee Crisis”, Migration Policy Institute, 17 August 2017
    30. Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard agency, estimates that there were more than
    760,000 illegal border crossings on the Western Balkans route in 2015, a dramatic increase from the
    40,000 of the previous year (Frontex). The Western Balkans, themselves countries of origin of
    migration towards the EU, were both unequipped and unprepared to handle a crisis of such
    proportions. As such, they only tried to speed up the passage of people towards the countries of
    destination (Greider, 2017).
    Frontex, Illegal border crossings on the Western Balkans route in numbers, 2017
    31. As the crisis continued, EU countries started to limit the passage of refugees. In turn, Serbia
    and Croatia started to introduce quotas for the number of people allowed to cross per day, while the
    former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia -Greek border became the theatre of violent incidents, with
    reported use of tear gas to control the flow of migrants. The EU’s March 2016 agreement with Turkey
    178 PCNP 18 E rev.1 fin
    10
    to curb illegal migration effectively closed down the migration route to the EU coming from Greece.
    In turn, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia closed its border with Greece, effectively
    trapping all the migrants left in the Western Balkans. Indeed, Western Balkan countries were
    encouraged by the example of EU countries such as Bulgaria and Hungary to adopt a hard-line
    approach, harshly repressing any attempt by refugees to proceed further North.
    32. While the EU-Turkey deals certainly relieved some pressure on the region regarding the influx
    of migrants, it is only a temporary stopgap solution. In June 2018, it was reported that more than
    5,500 refugees and migrants from Asia and North Africa entered Bosnia. Albania is also seeing a
    rise in migrants entering its borders. Between January and May, authorities caught 2,311 migrants -
    up from 162 during that same period of 2017 and more than double the number of around 1,000 for
    the whole of 2017. The route through Albania is thought to be a new route smugglers are using to
    move people into the EU. Bosnia reported an unusually high influx of migrants directed towards the
    EU coming from Pakistan, Algeria, Afghanistan and Turkey – signalling that the crisis is far from
    over. However, the recent reports from Frontex suggest that the increase in use of the so-called
    western Mediterranean route will shift the movement of people from the eastern route passing
    through Eastern Europe and the Balkans to Southern Europe, especially Spain and Portugal.
    33. Meanwhile, irrespective of the refugee crisis, although definitely bolstered by it, organised
    crime and illicit trade have been an enduring issue in the Western Balkans since the breakup of the
    former Yugoslavia. The region sits on the western branch of the “Balkan route” which is primarily
    used to transfer drugs from Afghanistan (the world’s leading heroin producer) to Western Europe.
    Whilst South East European countries are first and foremost transit countries, some evidence of
    storage facilities suggests that heroin is being adulterated and repackaged in Albania, Kosovo and
    FYR Macedonia. In addition to this, there has also been a rise in cannabis production in Albania,
    which has easily entered Western European markets thanks to the transnational organised crime
    networks that operate in the Balkans.
    34. The Western Balkans are not only a drug smuggling route, but a major transit region and -
    since the 1990s wars - a source of illegal arms into the EU. As such, the proliferation of organised
    crime and trafficking in the Western Balkans are a concern for not only regional but also more widely
    European security. Much like the illegal substance and arms smugglers, human traffickers also
    benefit from the organised crime networks and legacies of the 1990s Yugoslav wars. During the
    178 PCNP 18 E rev.1 fin
    11
    wars, the spike in emigration, a lack of law enforcement, and political instability combined to create
    conditions in which human traffickers began operating. The refugee crisis in Europe has once again
    created similar conditions, sparking fears of increases in human trafficking as criminals go on to
    capitalise on the despair of refugees travelling to Western Europe.
    35. Bilateral cooperation between Western European NATO member states and the Balkan
    governments has yielded significant results in terms of successful raids on trafficking rings
    (US Department of State, 2017). It is recommended that this cooperation continue as the effects of
    the refugee crisis continue to shake the region. One of the deepest concerns about organised crime
    in the Western Balkans is how intertwined it is with both high and low-level corruption. However,
    supporting the regional governments in their attempts to combat illicit trade is a crucial step in helping
    sever these links. It is therefore highly recommended that the recent cooperation between NATO
    and the UN Office for Drugs and Crime continue to develop. Thus far 450 counter narcotics officers
    from Central Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan have received training – these capacity building courses
    would also highly benefit the Western Balkans.
    D. ISLAMISM, RADICALISATION AND FOREIGN FIGHTERS
    36. The Western Balkans have a significant Muslim population: Islam is practiced by 28% of the
    population in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, by more than 50% in Albania and Bosnia,
    and by 95% in Kosovo. However, religious fundamentalism spread considerably during and after the
    Yugoslav wars, due to the influx of fundamentalist Salafist imams from abroad. Experts claim that
    the objective of these preachers is to hijack the ethnic identity of Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims) and
    Albanians, who practice an essentially moderate interpretation of Islam, and replace it with a
    hard-line extremist one. The newly formed states did not have the capabilities or the expertise to
    tackle this phenomenon, leading to several terrorist attacks – albeit with a limited number of
    casualties – and a few Islamist enclaves, such as the Bosnian village of Gornja Maoca.
    37. The emergence of Daesh had a double effect on the Western Balkans. On the one hand, the
    influx of refugees put pressure on already troubled economies; and on the other, Syria and Iraq
    became the ideal destination for the aspiring jihadists of the region.
    38. Regarding internal security issues, Daesh’s main online publication, Rumiyah1
    , explicitly
    threatened the Balkans in an article titled “The Balkans - Blood for Enemies, and Honey for Friends”
    in June 2017 (Trad, 2017). So far, the terror organisation has not claimed responsibility for any attack
    in the region. However, in November 2016, the group had planned simultaneous attacks in Albania,
    Kosovo and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, with the top target being the Israeli national
    football team, which was scheduled to play in Tirana, and its supporters. Twenty-five people were
    arrested by the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Albanian police forces, in what was a
    remarkable show of cooperation between the security services of the two countries.
    39. It is estimated that between 900 and 1,000 fighters (often followed by their families) have
    travelled from the Balkans to Iraq and Syria; while some of them had criminal records or had fought
    in the Yugoslav wars, the majority of them did not have any previous fighting experience. As Daesh
    has lost the swathes of land it controlled in Iraq and Syria it appears likely that the Western Balkans
    will also be confronted with the problem of returning foreign fighters. This raises serious issues,
    ranging from the legal consequences of the actions committed in Syria to rehabilitation and the return
    to local civil society.
    40. Kosovo has produced more foreign fighters per capita than any other Western nation since
    Daesh declared its caliphate in 2014. Around 400 Kosovo citizens have joined the group and other
    Islamist extremist groups since fighting in Syria began in 2012. With EU aspirations, Kosovo has
    been tough on solving its radicalization problem, indicting more than 120 terrorism suspects and
    arresting many more, including imams suspected of recruiting people to fight abroad. However, many
    1 Literally translatable as “Rome”
    178 PCNP 18 E rev.1 fin
    12
    prison sentences are being shortened and some say that rehabilitation attempts are not always
    effective, leaving still radicalised individuals free. Many Western powers are now working with
    Kosovar authorities to aid in the attempts to rehabilitate, with fears that Kosovo may become a
    launching pad for more attacks across the EU.
    Asya Metodieva, “Balkan Foreign Fighters Are Coming Back: What Should Be Done?”, STRATPOL,
    January 2018
    41. Radicalisation will remain a problem even after the fall of Daesh. While Daesh did not claim
    any terrorist attacks, the region was already a hotbed for extremists, often affiliated to nationalist
    movements. Given the volatile situation in the region it is important that countries dealing with similar
    issues that have more expertise continue assisting the Western Balkans. This is in their common
    interest as some groups in the Western Balkans are connected with radicalised individuals in
    Western Europe.
    IV. THE WESTERN BALKANS AND EURO-ATLANTIC INTEGRATION
    42. NATO and the European Union have played a prominent role in supporting post-conflict
    development and the economic transition and in facilitating Euro-Atlantic integration of the Western
    Balkans; while the latter objective has been achieved for some countries, other states still remain
    out of one or both of these organisations.
    A. NATO’S ROLE IN THE WESTERN BALKANS: PEACEBUILDING AND
    ENLARGEMENT
    43. NATO’s presence in the Western Balkans dates back to the early 90s. After the intervention in
    Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo in 1995 and 1999, NATO remained in the region as a stabilising
    force, for example through Operation Allied Harmony in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.
    NATO’s commitment to the region led to the accession of Slovenia, Albania, Croatia and, as recently
    as 2017, Montenegro. Following the naming agreement between the former Yugoslav Republic of
    Macedonia and Greece in June 2018, NATO during its July 2018 Summit formally invited the former
    Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to begin membership talks, saying the country could join the
    organisation following a full resolution of the name dispute. Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina,
    while valuable partners for the Alliance, are currently not pursuing NATO membership.
    44. Serbia, which pursues a policy of military neutrality, is a NATO partner country that participates
    actively in the Partnership for Peace (PfP) programme, without aspiring to become a NATO member.
    BiH’s NATO membership aspirations have been hampered by continuing differences between
    Sarajevo and Republika Srpska. NATO laid out a Membership Action Plan (MAP) for Bosnia and
    Herzegovina in 2010, implementable under the condition that the political constituencies of the
    178 PCNP 18 E rev.1 fin
    13
    country transferred the control of their military facilities to the central government. This is fiercely
    opposed by the political elites in Republika Srpska. In October 2017, Republika Srpska’s parliament
    passed a resolution affirming the constituency’s military neutrality: a symbolic move, but one that
    formally show protest against any further step towards NATO integration.
    45. At the time of writing, the Kosovo Force (KFOR) is the only NATO military mission still active
    in the region: after having secured the area, it now helps in the development of an effective security
    sector in Kosovo, gradually transferring its competences to the Kosovo Police and other internal
    bodies. In addition to that, NATO has Headquarters in Sarajevo and Military Liaison Offices in
    Belgrade and Skopje to support defence reforms, foster dialogue and facilitate the participation in
    the PfP programmes.
    46. NATO’s activities in the former Yugoslavia were the catalyst that started the cooperation
    between the Atlantic Alliance and the European Union. NATO had been conducting peace-enforcing
    operations since 1992, after which both NATO and the EU supported the post-conflict peacebuilding
    and peacekeeping activities in the region. In March 2003, the EU formally started its first fully-fledged
    Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) mission, Operation EUFOR Concordia in the former
    Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, taking over from NATO’s Operation Allied Harmony. One year
    later, the EU launched Operation EUFOR Althea in BiH, after NATO formally ended its Operation
    Stabilisation Force in Bosnia and Herzegovina (SFOR).
    47. The ongoing cooperation between the two organisations remains crucially important for both
    regional and Euro-Atlantic stability. In the Western Balkans, the EU began to develop its capacities
    in post-crisis stabilisation force, conducting both civilian and military operations, while NATO
    remained the ultimate security guarantor in case of any escalation of hostilities. Other than the
    missions already mentioned, the EU is still present in the Western Balkans, conducting missions with
    a more civilian focus, such as EUPOL Proxima, which replaced EUFOR Concordia and aims to
    develop the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s police system, and EULEX Kosovo. In June
    2018, the EU announced it was refocusing its mandate for the rule of law mission to end the judicial
    executive part of the mandate – which supported the adjudication of constitutional and civil justice
    and prosecuting and adjudicating selected criminal cases - to exclusively focus on the monitoring,
    mentoring, and advising objectives that provide support to the Kosovo rule of law initiatives and to
    the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue.
    B. EU: THE BUMPY ROAD TOWARDS MEMBERSHIP
    48. At an institutional level, the EU has established 16 bodies that foster transnational integration
    amongst the Western Balkans. These initiatives are further backed by countless financial and
    diplomatic efforts. To name only a few:
    - The Stability and Association Agreement (SAA). All the countries in the Western Balkans,
    including Kosovo, have signed a SAA with the EU; through this instrument, the EU establishes
    contractual duties and obligations tailored for each country, with the goal of stabilising the area
    and preparing for EU membership (Directorate-General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement
    Negotiations, DG NEAR 2016a).
    - The Instrument for Pre-accession Assistance (IPA). Offering financial and technical help, the
    EU ensures that countries are able to implement their reforms in key sectors. For the
    2014-2020 period, the EU dedicated EUR 11.7 billion to the IPA, making it by far the largest
    donor to the region (Directorate-General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement, DG NEAR
    2016b).
    - The Berlin Process. Since 2014, the EU has held yearly ministerial meetings in the framework
    of the so-called Berlin Process, initiated in 2014 to favour EU-integration of the Western
    Balkans. Each of the meetings of the Berlin Process framework has a theme with the July 2018
    meeting focusing on areas of mutual concern, i.e. security. At this meeting, the six nations
    178 PCNP 18 E rev.1 fin
    14
    agreed to share police and intelligence data to fight terrorism and organised crime (The
    Economist, 2018).
    49. 2018 is widely considered to be crucial for the future of the Euro-Atlantic integration of the
    Western Balkans, according to the EU Enlargement Strategy released in February. Furthermore,
    until July, the Council of the European Union was presided by Bulgaria, which made the Western
    Balkans one of its priorities, hosting the first EU-Western Balkans summit of head of states since
    Thessaloniki in 2003 in its capital in May 2018.
    50. The EU set 2025 as a potential date for the accession of Serbia and Montenegro, which are
    currently considered the forerunner candidates. That said, the EU Enlargement Strategy notes that
    none of the Western Balkan countries currently is a functional market economy, given clear elements
    of state capture and collusion between the state and organised crime. Moreover, the Strategy also
    stresses the prerequisite of full adherence to the EU’s values and the resolution of all bilateral
    disputes before accession.
    51. However, the EU’s approach is arguably dictated not only by the situation in the candidate
    countries, but also by its own internal situation. Barely ten years have passed since the EU member
    states unanimously decided to admit Romania and Bulgaria, even though their reform process in
    certain key areas, including corruption and the rule of law, was far from over. In addition, the EU is
    facing considerable internal challenges of its own, including Brexit and the deterioration of
    democratic standards in some member states. Given this context, it will be difficult for the EU to
    balance its enlargement agenda with its own internal reforms and structural changes after the
    departure of the United Kingdom.
    52. The limited success of the EU’s approach to the Western Balkans in the past may also have
    been due to the fact that the democratic agenda and the regional cooperation model pursued by the
    EU sometimes seemed oblivious of the reality on the ground. Indeed, persistent open disputes over
    borders paired with ethnic, social and religious tensions remain highly charged. The new
    Enlargement Strategy now commits the EU to six “flagship initiatives”, and one of them is meant to
    support reconciliation and good neighbourly relations.
    53. The official position of DG NEAR is that the EU is in no position nor wishes to impose anything
    on the Western Balkans: accession and Euro-Atlantic integration, including what it takes to achieve
    them, remain a free choice. Yet, for a region that remains riddled with unresolved border issues and
    persistent ethnic tensions, the EU could have given a higher priority to the reconciliation process.
    Commenting on the EU’s enlargement strategy, the NGO Impunity Watch argues that without a
    stronger commitment by the EU to ensure reconciliation, the ethnic divisions of the region will
    supersede the efforts towards regional cooperation (Stappers and Unger, 2018). There are clearly
    competing views within the European leadership on how and when the accession of the Western
    Balkans should take place. EU Commissioner Johannes Hahn has stated his disagreement with the
    views of French President Emmanuel Macron on delaying the entry process of Western Balkan
    candidates into the EU until internal reforms take place - arguing these things can happen
    simultaneously, as for the EU not to lose influence in the region (Heath and Gray, 2018).
    178 PCNP 18 E rev.1 fin
    15
    54. The other five flagships initiatives mentioned in the EU Enlargement Strategy are designed to
    strengthen the rule of law, reinforce engagement on security and migration, enhance support for
    socio-economic development, increase transport and energy connectivity and create a Digital
    Agenda. These are areas deemed to be in the interest of both the EU and the Western Balkans; the
    concrete policies laid out by the EU so far only cover the 2018-2019 period. One wonders whether
    certain measures (e.g. helping lower – not even removing – roaming fees) would have any impact
    on the average citizen of the Western Balkans. On the other hand, commitments such as facilitating
    Serbia and BiH’s bid to the WTO would facilitate and reassure private foreign investors and have an
    impact on both countries’ economies.
    55. Perhaps the biggest shortcoming of the EU and NATO’s approach to the Western Balkans was
    to have kept them on “autopilot mode”. A renewed focus of the EU and NATO on the Western
    Balkans is therefore overdue. The engagement of the EU and NATO should remain unwavering and
    adapt to new challenges, as the region remains of crucial importance due to its geographical
    proximity, and its cultural affinity and economic ties with the rest of Europe.
    V. CONCLUSIONS: NATO AND THE WESTERN BALKANS – THE WAY AHEAD
    56. The security of the Western Balkans is crucial for European and Euro-Atlantic security. What
    happens there affects us all. While this region has come a long way already in overcoming the difficult
    legacy of the past, the countries of the Western Balkans still confront a range of internal and external
    challenges. These include limited socio-economic progress, the temptation of nationalism and
    populism, old and new forms of corruption, disinformation and lack of information about NATO and
    the EU, the influence of radicalism, Russia’s attempt to interfere in local politics and democratic
    processes, and migration movements from and through the region.
    57. The developments in recent years have shown that the European Union and the Alliance
    cannot take progress in Western Balkan democracy for granted: the risk of backsliding is ever
    present. There are many worrying signs that a kind of vacuum has been created in the region which
    is being filled by forces with a decidedly anti-democratic and anti-Western agenda. There was a false
    assumption that democratic reform in the region was inevitable, but this was overly optimistic. More
    active international engagement is essential to encourage and sustain reform processes. While it is
    true that the Alliance is facing multiple challenges, it cannot afford to let the Western Balkans off its
    radar. The Western Balkans are of eminent importance to Europe and indeed to Euro-Atlantic
    security. Not only is the region at our door step, several countries from Southeastern Europe are
    already NATO member states. Moreover, another country in the region, the former Yugoslav
    Republic of Macedonia, will join once the naming dispute is resolved, and NATO Allies continue to
    support the membership aspiration of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
    58. There must not be a security vacuum. NATO’s continued military presence and its political
    engagement with partner countries of the Western Balkans are crucially important for regional
    stability. The EU should show its political support and affirm that its door will remain open for the
    accession of the Western Balkan countries when they are ready. The EU needs to foster and push
    for the continuation, and indeed the deepening, of the reform processes. For this, it is important to
    be involved politically and not to only foot the bill. The process of European and Euro-Atlantic
    integration can have a transformative effect that helps strengthen democratic institutions and
    consolidate respect for human rights and for the rule of law – which are the foundation for economic
    progress and political stability.
    59. The relations among the Western Balkan countries must not be considered as a zero-sum
    game. The countries of the region need to understand that they are much better off when they
    cooperate. In no other region than in the Western Balkans has close cooperation between NATO
    and the EU been as instrumental for stability and security. Both organisations can do more to
    encourage the countries of the region to work together and not against each other.
    178 PCNP 18 E rev.1 fin
    16
    BIBLIOGRAPHY
    Associated Press, “Refugees stuck in Serbia begin marching towards Hungarian border”, The Guardian,
    4 October 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/04/serbia-refugees-hungarian-
    border-macedonia-bulgaria
    Azinović, Vlado (ed.), “Between Salvation and Terror: Radicalization and the Foreign Fighter
    Phenomenon in the Western Balkans”, Atlantic Initiative, 2017
    Balfour, Rosa and Corina Stratulat, “EU member states and enlargement towards the Balkans”,
    European Policy Center, Issue Paper no. 79, July 2015,
    http://aei.pitt.edu/66050/1/pub_5832_eu_member_states_and_enlargement_towards_the_balka
    ns.pdf
    Ballin, André, Ozan Demircan and Hans-Peter Siebenhaar, “EU, Russia and Turkey Struggle for Balkan
    Influence”, Handelsblatt, 21 August 2017
    Bartunek, Robert-Jan and Robin Emmott, “EU opens door to Balkans with 2025 target for membership”,
    Reuters, 6 February 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-balkans/eu-opens-door-to-
    balkans-with-2025-target-for-membership-idUSKBN1FQ1XE
    BBC, “Bosnia US embassy gunman Mevlid Jasarevic jailed for 18 years”, 6 December 2012,
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-20629893
    Bechev, Dimitar, “Russia’s Foray into the Balkans: Who Is Really to Blame?, FPRI, 12 October 2017
    Benchev, Dimitar, “Albania: The good news and the bad news”, Al Jaazera, 28 June 2017,
    http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/06/albania-good-news-bad-news-
    170628084112840.html
    Bershidsky, Leonid, “Why NATO wants Montenegro (Not for its Military Might)”, Bloomberg, 1 May 2017,
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-02-04/voters-feel-good-about-the-economy-not-
    about-trump
    BIRN, “BIRN Under Fire”, last updated: 9 January 2018. http://birn.eu.com/birn-under-fire/
    Bonomi, Matteo, “EU and Western Balkans: So near and yet so far”, B92, 21 December 2017,
    https://www.b92.net/eng/insight/opinions.php?yyyy=2017&mm=12&dd=21&nav_id=103094
    Brown, Ian, “Strengthening the Resilience of the Economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina”, Emerging
    Europe, 25 March 2017, http://emerging-europe.com/regions/bosnia/strengthening-resilience-
    economy-bosnia-herzegovina/
    Bugajski, Janusz, “NATO’s Balkan strategy”, CEPA, 9 May 2017, http://cepa.org/EuropesEdge/NATOs-
    Balkan-strategy
    Byrne, Andrew, “Kremlin-backed media adds to western fears in Balkans”, Financial Times,
    19 March 2017, https://www.ft.com/content/3d52cb64-0967-11e7-97d1-5e720a26771b
    Byrne, Andrew, “What put Macedonia in World Bank’s top 10 ranking for investors”, Financial Times,
    June 2017
    Casule, Kole, “Macedonians rally against name deal with Greece”, Reuters, 4 March 2018,
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-macedonia-greece-name-protests/macedonians-rally-
    against-name-deal-with-greece-idUSKBN1GG0QG
    Corina Stratulat, “Democratisation via EU Integration: fragile resilience and resilient fragility”, in Lange,
    Sabina et als (eds.), “Resilience in the Western Balkans”, EUISS, Report no. 36, August 2017
    Dearden, Lizzie, “Isis attack on Israeli football team foiled by police at World Cup qualifier in Albania”,
    The Independent, 17 November 2016, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/isis-
    attack-israeli-israel-football-team-police-kosovo-terror-simultaneous-a7422696.html
    DG NEAR, “Glossary: Stabilisation and Association Process”, last updated 6 December 2016a,
    https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/policy/glossary/terms/sap_en
    DG NEAR, “Overview - Instrument for Pre-accession Assistance”, last updated 6 December 2016b,
    https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/instruments/overview_en
    DW, “Albania opposition protests for free elections and end to corruption”, 18 February 2017,
    http://www.dw.com/en/albania-opposition-protests-for-free-elections-and-end-to-corruption/a-
    37619901
    Džihić, Vedran, “What does Kurz-Strahe coalition in Austria mean for EU and the Western Balkans?”,
    European Western Balkans, 22 December 2017,
    https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2017/12/22/kurz-strahe-coalition-austria-bode-western-
    balkans/
    178 PCNP 18 E rev.1 fin
    17
    Eder, Florian, “Austria to the EU: We need to talk about Turkey”, Politico, 12 December 2016,
    https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-to-the-eu-we-need-to-talk-about-turkey-eu-membership-
    sebastian-kurz-austrias-foreign-minister/
    EEAS, “Remarks by High Representative/Vice-President Federica Mogherini following the Foreign
    Affairs Council”, 6 March 2017, https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-
    homepage/22056/remarks-high-representativevice-president-federica-mogherini-following-
    foreign-affairs-council
    EUObserver, “Kosovo is Serbia, says Austria's deputy PM”, 12 February 2018,
    https://euobserver.com/tickers/140942
    European Centre for Press and Media Freedom, “Measuring media realities. Media Clientelism Index
    2016”, March 2017, https://www.rcmediafreedom.eu/Publications/Reports/Measuring-media-
    realities.-Media-Clientelism-Index-2016
    European Commission, “EU Candidate & Potential Candidate Countries’ Economic Quarterly (CCEQ)”,
    Technical Paper 022, January 2018, p. 17ss. https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/economy-
    finance/tp022_en.pdf
    European Commission, “Western Balkans Summit 2017: delivering for the region”, 12 July 2017,
    https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/international/news/2017-07-12-western-balkans-summit-
    2017-delivering-region_en
    European Council, “EU-Turkey statement”, 18 March 2016,
    http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/03/18/eu-turkey-statement/
    European Western Balkans, “The EU and the Western Balkans after the Berlin Process”, 8 January
    2018, https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2018/01/08/eu-western-balkans-berlin-process/
    Fehlinger, Günther and Andreas Umland, “Why Ukraine should become a Balkan country”, ECFR,
    29 January 2018,
    http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_why_ukraine_should_become_a_balkan_country
    Fouéré, Erwan and Blockmans Steven, “The ‘Berlin Process’ for the Western Balkans – Is it delivering?”,
    CEPS, 13 July 2017, https://www.ceps.eu/system/files/EF_SB_BalkansSummitBanner.pdf
    Frontex, “Western Balkan Route”, http://frontex.europa.eu/trends-and-routes/western-balkan-route/
    Gallucci, Gerard M., “Oliver Ivanovic”, Transconflict, 24 January 2018,
    http://www.transconflict.com/2018/01/oliver-ivanovic-241/
    Greider, Alice, “Outsourcing Migration Management: The Role of the Western Balkans in the European
    Refugee Crisis”, Migration Policy Institute, 17 August 2017
    Hopkins, Valerie, “EU courts trouble with Kosovo scandal”, Politico, 17 November 2017,
    https://www.politico.eu/article/malcolm-simmons-eulex-eu-courts-chaos-with-kosovo-scandal/
    Hopkins, Valerie, “Trieste test for Western Balkan unity”, Politico, 11 July 2017,
    https://www.politico.eu/article/trieste-test-for-western-balkan-unity/
    Hunter, Shireen T. “God on Our Side: Religion in International Affairs”, Rowman & Littlefiled, 2017,
    p. 238
    Kambas and Maltezou, “Greece sees breakthrough soon in Macedonia name impasse”, Reuters,
    1 February 2018. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-greece-macedonia-foreignminister/greece-
    sees-breakthrough-soon-in-macedonia-name-impasse-idUSKBN1FL5V3 .
    Keller, Eva, “World Bank: Western Balkans Need To Speed Up Growth For Faster Convergence”,
    Emerging Europe, 2 December 2017, http://emerging-europe.com/regions/albania/world-bank-
    western-balkans-need-to-speed-up-growth-for-faster-convergence/
    Keukeleire, Stephen and Tom Delreux, “The Foreign Policy of the European Union”, Palgrave
    Macmillan, 2014
    Kmezić, Marko and Florian Bieber, “Western Balkans and the EU: Beyond the Autopilot Mode”, Balkans
    in Europe Advisory Working Group, November 2016
    Kovacevic, Danijel, “Bosnian Serbs Adopt Resolution on Military Neutrality”, Balkan Insight, 18 October
    2017, http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/bosnian-serb-entity-adopted-the-resolution-on-
    military-neutrality-10-18-2017
    Kovacevic, Danijel, “Bosnian Serbs Prepare Biggest ‘Statehood Day’ Celebration”, Balkan Insight,
    9 January 2018, http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/bosnian-serbs-prepare-biggest-
    statehood-day-celebration-01-08-2018
    Lakic, Mladen, "Rise in Migrant Numbers Concerns Bosnia”, BalkanInisght, 19 February 2018,
    http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/can-bosnia-handle-newest-migrants-flow-02-16-2018
    178 PCNP 18 E rev.1 fin
    18
    Lange, Sabina, “Tackling common challenges at 2017 Western Balkans Summit: security, migration,
    terrorism”, ISPI, 10 July 2017, http://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/tackling-common-
    challenges-2017-western-balkans-summit-security-migration-terrorism-17178
    Less, Timothy, “Dysfunction in the Balkans”, Foreign Affairs, 20 December 2016,
    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/bosnia-herzegovina/2016-12-20/dysfunction-balkans
    Lilyanova, Velina, “Anti-corruption efforts in the Western Balkans”, European Parliamentary Research
    Service, April 2017,
    http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2017/599417/EPRS_BRI(2017)599417_E
    N.pdf
    Lilyanova, Velina, “Media freedom trends 2017: Western Balkans”, EPRS, May 2017,
    http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2017/603888/EPRS_ATA(2017)603888_
    EN.pdf
    Lubambu, Karine Manyonga Kamuleta, The Impacts of Remittances on Developing Countries,
    European Parliament DG for External Policies, EXPO/B/DEVE/2013/34, April 2014
    Macdowall, Andrew, “Bosnia’s Serb Republic leader: No breakaway vote next year”, Politico, 29 June
    2017, https://www.politico.eu/article/milorad-dodik-bosnia-serb-republic-serbia-leader-no-
    breakaway-vote-next-year/
    Marovic, Jovana, “Are the autocrats in the Western Balkans interested in the rule of law?”, European
    Western Balkans, 26 April 2017, https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2017/04/26/are-the-
    autocrats-in-the-western-balkans-interested-in-the-rule-of-law/
    Marusic, Sinisa Jakov, “Macedonia to Lift Lid on Subsidies for Investors”, BIRN, 31 August 2017,
    http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/macedonia-lifts-veil-over-investors-subsidies-08-30-
    2017
    Marusic, Sinisa Jakov, “Unsolved Killings Raise Fears of Macedonian Turmoil”, BalkanInsight,
    19 April 2012, http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/unsolved-killings-raise-fears-of-
    macedonian-turmoil/btj-topic-justice-and-politics-latest-headlines-right-column/26
    Mejdini, Fatjona, Filip Rudic, Maria Cheresheva, Sinisa Jakov Marusic and Die Morina, “Fight-Back
    Starts Against Balkan ‘Fake News’ Machines”, BIRN, 7 December 2017,
    http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/fight-back-starts-against-balkan-fake-news-machines-
    12-01-2017
    META, “Zaev: We dedicate the first 100 days to the people, the economy and friendship towards our
    neighbors”, 5 September 2017, http://meta.mk/en/zaev-we-dedicate-the-first-100-days-to-the-
    people-the-economy-and-friendship-towards-our-neighbors/
    Metodieva, Asya, “Balkan Foreign Fighters Are Coming Back: What Should Be Done?”, STRATPOL,
    January 2018, http://stratpol.sk/wp-
    content/uploads/2018/01/Metodieva_Returnees_Western_Balkans_Stratpol_FINAL.pdf
    Mikhaylova, Marina, “SEE countries remain heavily dependent on remittances - World Bank”, SeeNews,
    24 April 2017, https://seenews.com/news/see-countries-remain-heavily-dependent-on-
    remittances-world-bank-566282
    Mikulic, Elameri Skrgic, Fatjona Mejdini, Maria Cheresheva, Maja Zivanovic and Labinot Leposhtica,
    “Balkan Terror Trials Reveal Links to Western Europe”, BIRN, 9 January 2018,
    http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/balkan-terror-trials-reveal-links-to-western-europe-01-
    08-2018
    Mujanovic Jasmin, “Is Feudal Ex-Yugoslavia Incapable of Reform?”, Balkan Insight, 21 February 2017,
    http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/is-feudal-ex-yugoslavia-incapable-of-reform--02-20-
    2017
    NATO, “Joint press point with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and the President of the
    Republic of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić”, 15 November 2017,
    https://www.nato.int/cps/ic/natohq/opinions_148787.htm?selectedLocale=en
    NATO, Peace support operations in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, 23 November 2017,
    https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_52121.htm
    Nechev, Zoran and Aleksandrs Svilans, “Western Balkans: More Resilience for the Energy Sector”,
    EUISS Brief, 14 June 2017,
    https://www.iss.europa.eu/sites/default/files/EUISSFiles/Brief%2019%20Energy%20resilience%
    20in%20the%20Western%20Balkans.pdf
    NATO PA , Benyon, Richard, “Economic Transition in the Western Balkans: an Assessment”,
    7 October 2017
    178 PCNP 18 E rev.1 fin
    19
    OSCE/ODIHR, “Serbia, Presidential Election: Final Report”, 2 April 2017,
    https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/serbia/322171
    Peel, Michael and Buckley, Neil, “EU to map out membership for 6 western Balkan states”, 1 February
    2018, https://www.ft.com/content/e0774a28-0695-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5
    Phillips, David L., “Implementation Review of the Kosovo-Serbia Dialogue”, Institute for the Study of
    Human Rights, Columbia University, September 2017
    Popovic, Tina and Mila Radulovic, “Montenegro, how not to protect whistleblowers”, Osservatorio
    Balcani e Caucaso, 15 December 2017,
    https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Montenegro/Montenegro-how-not-to-protect-
    whistleblowers-184622
    Regional Cooperation Council, Balkan Barometer 2017,
    http://www.rcc.int/seeds/files/RCC_BalkanBarometer_PublicOpinion_2017.pdf
    Rudic, Filip, “Serbia’s Anti-Vucic Protests: Key Facts”, Balkan Insight, 12 April 2017,
    http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/serbia-s-anti-vucic-protests-key-facts-04-12-2017
    Russell, Martin, “Russia in the Western Balkans”, EPRS, July 2017
    Stappers, Marlies and Unger, Thomas, “EU’s Balkan Strategy Misses Chance to Tackle Past Injustice”,
    Balkan Transitional Justice, 7 February 2018, http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/eu-s-
    balkans-strategy-doesn-t-sufficiently-tackle-past-injustices-02-07-2018
    Sven Milekic and Maja Zivanovic, “Border Disputes Still Bedevil Ex-Yugoslav States“, Balkan Insight,
    3 July 2017, https://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/border-disputes-still-bedevil-most-ex-
    yugoslav-states-07-01-2017-1
    Tanner, Marcus “Balkans in 2017: Two Cheers for the Economy”, Balkan Insight, 26 December 2017,
    http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/balkans-in-2017-two-cheers-for-the-economy-12-26-
    2017
    The Economist, “The difficulties of exchanging territory in the Balkans”, 19 February 2018,
    https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2018/02/economist-explains-11
    Tonchev, Plamen, “China’s Road: into the Western Balkans”, EUISS Policy Brief, February 2017
    Topaloff, Liubomir K., “Japan, China and the western Balkans”, The Diplomat, 23 January 2018
    Trad, Ruslan, “ISIS Propaganda Continues with the Targeting of the Western Balkans”, Newsfeed,
    6 July 2017, https://extranewsfeed.com/isis-propaganda-continues-with-the-targeting-of-the-
    balkans-1b2175714457
    Turner, Matthew, “Are Western Balkan States Growing Fast Enough for the EU?”, The Market Mogul,
    9 January 2018, https://themarketmogul.com/western-balkan-states-growing-fast-enough-eu/
    World Bank, “Western Balkans, Regional Report on Labor Market Trends 2017”, April 2017
    http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/336041491297229505/170403-Regional-Report-Western-
    Balkan-Labor-Market-Trends-2017-FINAL.pdf
    Zeneli, Valbona, “Migration, Brain Drain and the Western Balkans”, The Globalist, 27 July 2017,
    https://www.theglobalist.com/european-union-migration-brain-drain-and-the-western-balkans/
    Zivanovic, Maja “Neighbours' Moves Towards NATO Test Serbia's Neutrality”, BalkanInsight, 13 June
    2017, http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/rough-times-ahead-for-serbia-s-military-neutrality-
    06-12-2017
    ______________________
    POLITICAL
    COMMITTEE (PC)
    Sub-Committee on Transatlantic
    Relations (PCTR)
    NORTH KOREA'S
    CHALLENGE TO
    INTERNATIONAL
    SECURITY: IMPLICATIONS
    FOR NATO
    Report
    by Gerald E. CONNOLLY (United States)
    Rapporteur
    179 PCTR 18 E fin | Original: English | 18 November 2018
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 1
    II. NORTH KOREA’S CHALLENGES TO REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL
    SECURITY ..................................................................................................................... 1
    III. THE ROLE OF CHINA AND RUSSIA ............................................................................. 5
    IV. THE KINETIC OPTION................................................................................................... 6
    V. IMPROVING DPRK SANCTIONS: IMPLEMENTATION, ENFORCEMENT, AND
    EXPANSION................................................................................................................... 7
    VI. NATO AND MARITIME INTERDICTION......................................................................... 9
    VII. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................. 10
    BIBLIOGRAPHY........................................................................................................... 12
    179 PCTR 18 E fin
    1
    I. INTRODUCTION
    1. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK – North Korea) poses considerable
    challenges for regional and international security. Despite recent diplomatic engagement with the
    DPRK, the security situation on the Korean peninsula remains a global flashpoint. This report
    emphasises that the developments on the Korean peninsula and the policies pursued by the regime
    in Pyongyang pose a serious security threat to NATO and its partners. As a result, the threat
    demands greater engagement by NATO and NATO Allies.
    2. The volatile security position in North-East Asia has direct security implications for NATO
    Allies. In addition to threatening the two NATO partner countries in the region – the Republic of Korea
    (ROK) and Japan – the DPRK has also directly threatened the United States. Additionally,
    Pyongyang is now capable of levelling credible military threats against all Allies. As NATO Secretary
    General Jens Stoltenberg stressed at the 2018 Munich Security Conference, “North Korea continues
    to develop its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, which pose a threat to us all. All Allies are
    now within range of North Korean missiles. Pyongyang is closer to Munich than it is to Washington
    DC and therefore we must put maximum pressure on North Korea to abandon its nuclear
    programme, by political and diplomatic means and, not least, through effective economic sanctions.”
    Secretary General Stoltenberg also declared that North Korea’s ballistic and nuclear weapons
    programmes “pose a global threat which requires a global response” (Kelly, 2017). At the 2018
    Brussels Summit Allied Heads of State and Government expressed full solidarity with NATO partners
    in the region -- Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and the ROK – and called on all nations to maintain
    decisive pressure on the DPRK, including by fully implementing existing UN sanctions.
    3. Additionally, the DPRK has established illicit arms smuggling networks throughout the
    Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that help Pyongyang finance its ballistic and nuclear weapons
    programmes. The funding derived from these operations sustains DPRK nuclear activities, which
    undermine non-proliferation efforts. The small arms and ballistic missiles technology trafficked
    throughout the Middle East by the DPRK threaten NATO’s interest in regional stability.
    4. This report first identifies the security threats emanating from the DPRK. It then examines how
    China and Russia have made only limited contributions to de-escalating the crisis, in part because
    of the ways in which they have undermined the international sanctions regime. The report explores
    the military, or kinetic, option for eliminating the DPRK threat – highlighting the grave consequences
    of a war on the Korean peninsula. While the recent diplomatic activities – including the Singapore
    Summit between US President Donald Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un – are ongoing, it remains
    to be seen if the DPRK regime is willing to abandon its nuclear and missile programmes and if a
    negotiated settlement can be reached. The international community should therefore redouble all
    efforts to resolve this threat, which this report concludes should include a more forward-leaning
    approach from NATO and NATO Allies. The world must remain clear-eyed about the DPRK’s record
    of violating previous nuclear agreements and stand ready to continue the campaign to isolate
    Pyongyang in the absence of verifiable progress towards denuclearisation and the ceasing of other
    destabilising behaviour. The report specifically identifies the enforcement and expansion of the
    DPRK sanctions regime as well as increased maritime interdiction efforts as areas where NATO and
    its member states can make valuable contributions to countering the DPRK threat. This report serves
    as a basis for discussion among members of the Political Committee and has been updated for the
    Assembly’s 2018 Annual Session.
    II. NORTH KOREA’S CHALLENGES TO REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
    5. The spectre of conflict has loomed over the Korean peninsula since the early days of the Cold
    War. However, recent advances in the North Korean ballistic and nuclear weapons programmes
    coupled with the aggressive policies pursued by North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un have made the
    Peninsula a top issue on the international security agenda.
    179 PCTR 18 E fin
    2
    6. The DPRK has long been an outlier in the international arms control regime. The country
    withdrew unilaterally from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in
    January 2003; never joined the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) and has
    conducted six increasingly sophisticated nuclear tests since 2006.
    7. In September 2017, North Korea carried out its sixth nuclear test, which the regime claimed
    was a test for a hydrogen bomb. Intelligence services estimate that the DPRK’s nuclear arsenal may
    comprise 20-30 nuclear weapons. The US Department of Defense (DoD) estimated the number to
    be greater than 50.
    8. In addition to its increased nuclear testing under Kim Jong-un, the DPRK also accelerated its
    ballistic missile testing. Since 2012, the DPRK has conducted more than 80 ballistic missile tests. In
    2017, North Korea conducted 20 ballistic missile launches, including three intercontinental ballistic
    missiles (ICBMs). The US intelligence community assesses that North Korea now has the capability
    to produce the engines for advanced ballistic missiles and is no longer reliant on importing engines
    (UN POE, 2018).
    9. The latest missile test conducted in November 2017 represents a significant development for
    the DPRK ballistic missile programme. The Hwasong-15 reached an altitude of 4,475 kilometres with
    a flight time of 53 minutes. It is estimated that the Hwasong-15 has a range of 13,000 kilometres.
    The US Department of Defense has assessed that the DPRK is making steady progress toward
    having the technical ability to reconfigure a nuclear warhead for eventual deployment on a
    long-range ballistic missile.
    179 PCTR 18 E fin
    3
    10. Taken together, these developments in the DPRK’s ballistic and nuclear weapons programmes
    soon will put the US mainland and European capitals within range of a North Korean nuclear-armed
    ballistic missile. It is important to note that the UN Panel of Experts – convened to assess, among
    other things, North Korea’s illicit weapons programmes – found in its March 2018 report that the
    DPRK has yet to demonstrate the successful atmospheric re-entry of its ICBM technology.
    11. In his New Year’s address to the people of the DPRK in 2018, Kim Jong-un threatened to start
    mass-producing nuclear weapons and missiles. The DPRK has developed and expanded its nuclear
    programme in violation of international agreements and the regime in Pyongyang continues to defy
    UN Security Council resolutions. On several occasions in the past, the regime has threatened to
    attack South Korea, Japan, and the United States.
    12. The DPRK arsenal also includes chemical and biological weapons. Pyongyang’s chemical
    weapons development dates back to the 1950s. The DPRK is not a party to the Chemical Weapons
    Convention (CWC). The country is believed to have the third largest chemical weapons stockpile
    worldwide. The 2016 Defence White Paper of the Republic of Korea’s Ministry of National Defence
    estimates the DPRK’s arsenal to contain between 2,500 to 5,000 tons of nerve agents, blister agents,
    blood agents, and other chemical weapons. The DPRK used the nerve agent VX to assassinate
    Kim Jong-nam, Kim Jong-un’s half-brother, in Kuala Lumpur Airport (Malaysia) in 2017.
    13. In addition, it is suspected that the DPRK maintains an offensive biological weapons
    programme - despite being a party to the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) and
    the Geneva Protocol. The DPRK is at the very least capable of producing and weaponizing biological
    weapons and the 2016 Defence White Paper from the ROK Ministry of National Defence estimates
    that Pyongyang has anthrax and smallpox agents, among others.
    14. The DPRK is the most militarised society in the world. Approximately half of the population is
    either actively serving in the two-million strong armed forces, in the reserves, or supporting the
    military sector. The DPRK has the world’s fourth largest military and the largest artillery force. Most
    of the estimated 13,000 artillery pieces are within striking distance of Seoul. With an estimated
    defence spending that surpasses 25 % of the country’s GDP, the DPRK has the world’s largest
    military both in terms of manpower and defence spending proportional to population and national
    income. Between 2004 and 2014, it spent an annual average of USD 3.5 billion on military
    expenditures.
    15. The DPRK’s nuclear, ballistic, chemical, biological, and conventional weapons programmes
    pose a direct threat to global and regional security, but the illegal smuggling of these weapon
    technologies to state and non-state actors adds another dimension to the DPRK threat.
    16. North Korea has supplied ballistic missile technology and missile parts to countries in the
    Middle East and North Africa region, including Egypt, in violation of international sanctions. After
    being notified by the United States of potentially illicit North Korean cargo aboard the shipping vessel
    the Jie Shun, Egyptian authorities in 2017 were compelled to intercept the ship, which was carrying
    30,000 rocket-propelled grenades and components worth USD 26 million. This constituted the
    largest seizure of munitions in the history of the DPRK sanctions regime. The UN Panel of Experts
    March 2018 report notes that the crates containing the weapons “were prominently marked 'Al-
    Sakr Cairo' followed by an address identical to that on the shipping documentation, which listed the
    consignee as Al-Sakr Factory for Developed Industries,” which is Egypt’s primary missile research
    and development company.
    17. Numerous African countries reportedly have purchased arms and other military equipment
    from North Korea in recent years, in contravention of UN sanctions. These include Angola, Burundi,
    the Republic of Congo, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Libya,
    Mozambique, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda. Additionally, North Korea has provided military training
    to a handful of African countries, also in violation of UN sanctions. This cooperation dates back
    179 PCTR 18 E fin
    4
    several decades. For example, during the 1980s, North Korean troops backed Angola’s left-wing
    People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) government, supported President Robert
    Mugabe in Zimbabwe against Joshua Nkomo, and assisted the Democratic Republic of Congo’s
    President Joseph Kabila’s efforts to regain control over the country.
    18. Recent reports, including that of the UN Panel of Experts, highlight the continuing trade in
    weapons between North Korea and Syria. Pyongyang and Damascus have a longstanding
    relationship dating back to the Cold War. Current trade between the two countries includes the sale
    of items to Syria that could be used for the production of chemical weapons. The Syrian civil war has
    been particularly profitable for North Korea as it has generated additional demand for North Korean
    weapons. Pyongyang is suspected to have sent technical advisers, engineers, and possibly combat
    troops to Syria to assist the Assad regime against the opposition. Cooperation with the DPRK also
    allowed Syria to construct a nuclear reactor based on the design of North Korea’s Yongbyon reactor.
    Israeli airstrikes destroyed this reactor in 2007.
    19. Experts estimated that the revenues from the DPRK’s cooperation with Iran on nuclear and
    missile technology and arms sales alone could be as high as USD 2-3 billion annually. There is also
    evidence of DPRK arms sales to the Houthi insurgents in Yemen and to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
    Around the world DPRK embassies and diplomats continue to use a broad range of deceptive
    measures to generate revenue for the regime, according to UN reports. For example, recent reports
    highlight the pivotal role of the DPRK embassy in Cairo in selling missiles, military hardware and
    services to many countries in the MENA region.
    20. In August 2018, a UN report noted that “[North Korea] has not stopped its nuclear and missile
    programs and continued to defy Security Council resolutions through a massive increase in illicit
    ship-to-ship transfers of petroleum products, as well as through transfers of coal at sea during 2018.”
    The report also highlighted that North Korea has been cooperating militarily with Syria as well as
    attempting to sell weapons to Houthi rebels for their fight in Yemen. The independent experts also
    found evidence of Pyongyang’s violation of an export ban on textiles by sending more than
    USD 100 million in goods to China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Sri Lanka, Turkey, and Uruguay between
    October 2017 and March 2018.
    21. Though not directly within the scope of the security challenges posed by North Korea, your
    Rapporteur would be remiss if this paper did not mention the DPRK regime’s abhorrent treatment of
    the North Korean population of 25 million people as well as the abuse and imprisonment of
    foreign visitors.
    22. The oppressive regime in Pyongyang has a human rights record that is among the worst in the
    world for continued systematic, wide spread, and gross human rights violations. The Commission of
    Inquiry (COI) established by the United Nations Human Rights Council concluded that the regime in
    Pyongyang has committed multiple crimes against humanity, including extermination, murder,
    enslavement, and torture. Hundreds of thousands of North Koreans have perished in prison camps
    (International Bar Association, 2017). The DPRK regime diverts domestic resources and sometimes
    blocks international aid from reaching vulnerable North Korean populations. North Korea is the only
    country in the world where a literate, industrialised, urbanised population suffered a famine in
    peacetime.
    23. For many years, the North Korean regime has imprisoned foreign nationals and used their
    cases for political leverage. In January 2016, DPRK authorities arrested US citizen
    Otto Frederick Warmbier, an American student studying in the Rapporteur’s home state of Virginia
    and sentenced him to 15 years of hard labour for “anti-state acts” allegedly committed during a visit
    to North Korea. Mr. Warmbier died shortly after being released from detention due to systematic
    mistreatment while incarcerated in the DPRK. The North Korean government continues to imprison
    foreign nationals, including a large number of Japanese and South Korean citizens (Ryall, 2018).
    179 PCTR 18 E fin
    5
    III. THE ROLE OF CHINA AND RUSSIA
    24. In the case of North Korea, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has a wolf by the ear, and it
    can neither hold him, nor safely let him go.
    25. Recent demonstrations of independence from Beijing by Kim Jong-un showcase how unwieldy
    the DPRK-PRC relationship can be: Kim Jong-un has purged pro-Chinese North Korean officials,
    including the brutal execution of his uncle Jang Song-thaek. Kim Jong-un also chose the week of
    the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa) summit in Beijing to detonate a nuclear weapon.
    In addition, he had North Korean agents assassinate his half-brother Kim Jong-nam, who had been
    living in Macao under Chinese protection.
    26. That being said, the relationship has also developed into one of necessity: Pyongyang is
    economically dependent on China. The PRC accounts for 80-90 % of the DPRK’s foreign trade, and
    in 2016, China provided 6,000 of the 15,000 barrels of crude oil North Korea consumed per day
    (Energy Information Administration, 2017). Moreover, diplomatic relations between the DPRK and
    the PRC have increased considerably immediately before and after Kim Jong-un’s summits with
    South Korean President Moon Jae-in and US President Donald Trump. While Kim Jong-un had not
    visited China since he took power in 2011, he visited Beijing three times in 2018 to meet with Chinese
    President Xi Jinping.
    27. China has a significant interest in the stability of the Korean peninsula. The PRC is particularly
    concerned about a collapse of the DPRK that would likely result in huge refugee flows across the
    border. Moreover, an imploding North Korea would have a serious negative economic and social
    impact on the regions of north-eastern China that are dependent on cross-border trade. China also
    considers the DPRK as a buffer against the democratic ROK and, by extension, the United States.
    Additionally, Chinese officials and scientists have expressed fear over possible radioactive material
    leaking from the now closed Punggye-ri nuclear testing facility, which could contaminate
    neighbouring Chinese provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning (Taylor, 2018). For these
    reasons, China may support the cessation of nuclear testing in the DPRK.
    Map of North Korea and DPRK nuclear sites
    179 PCTR 18 E fin
    6
    28. Although the PRC generally implements its obligations under the United Nations Security
    Council resolutions targeting the DPRK, Chinese companies and banks are suspected of assisting
    the DPRK regime in circumventing existing sanctions, thereby enabling the latter to finance its
    nuclear and missile programmes. Chinese companies continue to facilitate DPRK exports of coal
    and iron ore and the import of vital fuel products. China blocked US efforts in 2017 to place an oil
    embargo on North Korea.
    29. There are some recent signals that China is willing to use its immense leverage over
    North Korea to influence the current crisis. China appears to have reduced imports from North Korea
    by 78.5% and 86.1% in January and February of 2018 (CNBC, 2018). However, these actions may
    be meant to signal to Kim Jong-un that this crisis will be resolved on China’s terms. It was not until
    Kim Jong-un agreed to meet with ROK President Moon Jae-in and US President Donald Trump
    that Kim Jong-un rushed to Beijing for a meeting with President Xi.
    30. Russia and the DPRK have a longstanding relationship stemming from proximity and close
    Cold War ties. Recently, Moscow has made overtures to Pyongyang that it seeks a closer
    relationship consistent with Russia’s intentions to increase trade with North Korea and promote its
    own Far East development agenda. Moscow is a primary aid donor to the DPRK and it recently
    forgave USD 10 billion of Soviet-era debt. Russia is also host to 40,000 North Korean labourers
    (Ha and Zilberman, 2018). Bilateral trade between Russia and North Korea doubled in the first
    quarter of 2017. In 2017, Russia emerged as North Korea’s second-largest trading partner. Trade
    was around USD 78 million. Although this is down from a peak of USD 112 million in 2013, it was a
    slight increase on 2016 despite a dramatic expansion of international sanctions against Pyongyang.
    31. The Russian ports of Nakhodka and Kholmsk have been used for the transhipping of
    North Korean coal exports after the UN Security Council banned them in August 2017. There are
    also reports that Russian oil exports to North Korea are much higher than publicly known. According
    to unconfirmed reports in December 2017, gasoline prices dropped in North Korea and some
    suggest that increased Russian exports were behind the drop in prices. North Korea’s illicit
    procurement activities and increased trade with Russia have somewhat reduced Pyongyang’s
    economic dependence on China. The UN Panel of Experts has published findings on possible
    Russian sanction violations involving imported DPRK iron, steel and coal; the operation of DPRK
    bank and arms sales representatives in Russia; and extensive shipping related violations beyond
    the transhipment of North Korean coal.
    32. From South Ossetia and Abkhazia to Crimea and Syria, Russia has pursued a geopolitical
    strategy of fomenting conflict, uncertainty, and instability abroad. It is consistent with this strategy to
    work against the resolution of the crisis on the Korean peninsula if Russia perceives the North Korean
    threat as a source of strategic uncertainty. Though it has supported DPRK sanctions at the UN,
    Russian enforcement of UN sanctions is weak to say the least. In late August 2018 Russia blocked
    the original report of the UN Security Council Sanctions Committee on North Korea on the
    implementation of sanctions against North Korea and its nuclear programme, which had initially
    named Russian ships when citing “a massive increase in illicit ship-to-ship transfers of petroleum
    products,” for North Korea (The Guardian, 2018).
    IV. THE KINETIC OPTION
    33. Increased provocation and threats by Pyongyang, advances in DPRK ballistic and nuclear
    weapons technology, and the inability or unwillingness of North Korea’s two largest patrons to
    convince the regime to pursue denuclearisation has produced grave concerns and immense
    frustration among the international community.
    179 PCTR 18 E fin
    7
    34. In August 2017, after two ICBM tests by North Korea, US President Donald Trump publicly
    threatened to consider a military strike against the DPRK. The kinetic option would have profound
    global security implications. More than 25 million people living in and around Seoul are within range
    of North Korean artillery. Casualty estimates for a conflict involving only conventional weapons are
    as high as 300,000 in the opening days of a large-scale conflict with the DPRK. Those estimates
    only grow if one considers the DPRK’s potential deployment of its arsenal of nuclear, chemical, and
    biological weapons. The costs of recovery and reconstruction following a military conflict could be
    astronomical and would likely generate requests for massive amounts of assistance from NATO
    countries.
    35. The Korean peninsula is one of the most militarised regions in the world and any security crisis
    would have the potential to spill over into neighbouring countries, particularly Japan and China, as
    well as Russia. One does not need to enumerate the various military operations from surgical strikes
    to the deployment of ground combat troops into North Korea to appreciate that the military option is
    fraught with unintended consequences and risks immense death and destruction. It should be an
    option of last resort and remains the least preferred alternative to resolving the crisis on the
    Peninsula.
    V. IMPROVING DPRK SANCTIONS: IMPLEMENTATION, ENFORCEMENT, AND
    EXPANSION
    36. One alternative to the kinetic option that has received a degree of international support is the
    establishment and development of a robust sanctions regime targeting North Korea. The UN Security
    Council (UNSC) adopted 11 resolutions between 2006 and March 2018 addressing North Korea’s
    malign activities and illicit weapons programmes. Seven of those resolutions have been adopted
    since 2016 as the pace and intensity of work on UN DPRK sanctions has increased. As permanent
    members of the Security Council, China and Russia have supported the adoption of these
    resolutions and the associated sanctions.
    37. The resolutions adopted before 2016 primarily targeted the DPRK’s activities directly related
    to its arms programmes and proliferation. Among other restrictions, the resolutions implemented an
    embargo on arms trade as well as nuclear and missile dual-use technologies, and established cargo
    inspections for shipments to and from North Korea suspected of carrying prohibited products. The
    continued development of North Korean nuclear and ballistic missile technologies have proved that
    the weapons-related bans were insufficient.
    38. Therefore, sanctions have been imposed on several sectors of the North Korean economy and
    have further limited the DPRK’s access to international financial systems. Starting with
    Resolution 2270 of 2 March 2016, the UNSC adopted sectoral sanctions, which currently cover more
    than 90 % of North Korean exports.
    39. Financial services sanctions prohibit, among other things, new joint ventures with DPRK
    entities or individuals, the transfer of gold to or from the DPRK, public or private financial support for
    trade with the DPRK, any relationship with DPRK banks, and the provision of insurance to DPRK
    vessels or vessels believed to be involved in prohibited activities.
    40. Asset freezes have been authorised against individuals trading bulk cash, evading sanctions,
    or supporting the DPRK’s nuclear-, missile-, or weapons of mass destruction (WMD)-related
    programmes. UN Member States have also been asked to expel DRPK diplomats engaged in
    sanctions evasion, DPRK nationals who represent certain designated entities, and any foreign
    national working for a DPRK bank or financial institution.
    179 PCTR 18 E fin
    8
    41. Interdiction and inspection-related sanctions have been expanded to include the designation
    of additional shipping vessels subject to assets freeze, seizure, or denial of entry into port. Since
    2017, UN Member States are now required to de-register, seize, inspect, and impound vessels that
    are believed to be involved in prohibited activities.
    42. Bans have been placed on selling or supplying North Korea with aviation fuel, gasoline, jet
    fuel, rocket fuel, and all condensates and natural gas liquids. Security Council resolutions adopted
    in 2017 also limit refined petroleum products and crude oil.
    43. UN bans on natural resources have had an impact on the North Korean economy. North Korea
    is rich in natural resources, but UN sanctions now prohibit the trade of DPRK lead and lead ore,
    copper, nickel, silver, zinc, gold, titanium ore, vanadium ore, rare earth elements, agriculture, wood,
    and coal.
    44. Sanctions also prohibit the trade of DPRK seafood and fishing rights, the export of DPRK
    textiles, and the sale to the DPRK of industrial machinery, transportation vehicles, iron, and steel.
    Some important humanitarian exemptions exist in the UN sanctions regime.
    45. Despite the myriad restrictions (of which this report only includes a partial list) on the North
    Korean economy intended to punish its threatening behaviour and deter the pursuit of illicit weapons
    programmes, the regime in Pyongyang remains a pariah state committed to the development of
    increasingly sophisticated ballistic and nuclear weapons technology. There are several reasons the
    international sanctions regime has thus far failed to bring about the desired results.
    46. First, the North Korean economy is relatively isolated and the DPRK has developed methods
    of effectively evading sanctions. It has used a broad range of measures, including the use of shell
    companies and foreign-flagged vessels, the transhipment of DPRK goods for export, sending
    North Korean workers abroad to produce revenue from remittances. The regime also engages in
    overtly criminal operations, such as drug trafficking, counterfeiting foreign currencies, and the digital
    hijacking of bank accounts. According to the UN Panel of Experts’ latest report, the DPRK managed
    to generate USD 200 million in 2017 through the export of coal and other commodities on the
    sanctions list, mostly to China, Russia, Malaysia, and Vietnam. Despite NATO countries’ support for
    and compliance with UN sanctions, Europe remains a locus for North Korean sanctions-evasion
    activities. Several recent incidents were documented in the Panel of Experts 2018 report. In 2017,
    Austria closed 12 bank accounts associated with North Korean embassy personnel; DPRK iron and
    steel exports were sent to France, Germany, and Slovakia throughout 2016 and 2017; and DPRK
    embassy property in several European countries has been advertised as available for lease as
    recently as 2018.
    47. Second, enforcement of and compliance with the DPRK sanctions regime can be improved.
    The Russian transhipping hubs mentioned earlier in this report could be shuttered. The 2017 Panel
    of Experts report included a list of 16 banks – several of them operating out of China – that have not
    been designated by the UN but which the Panel implicated in several violations of UN sanctions.
    This list includes, among others, First Eastern Bank, Rason; First Trust Bank Corporation; Ryugyong
    Commercial Bank; Koryo Commercial Bank; Haedong Bank; Hana Banking Corporation; and
    Kumgyo International Commercial Bank. These banks could be sanctioned.
    48. Oversight and regulation of the maritime insurance industry should be strengthened. As
    recently as January 2017, the Luxembourg- and London-based company West of England P&I and
    the US-based company American Club P&I provided insurance to DPRK ships and ships travelling
    to the DPRK in violation of UNSCR 2270 (2016) and UNSCR 2321 (2016) (Huish, 2017). The
    UN Panel of Experts has recommended that, “maritime protection and indemnity insurers include a
    clause in all contracts, stipulating that all transfers involving violations of the resolutions, in particular
    prohibited ship-to-ship transfers and petroleum products transferred to the Democratic People’s
    Republic of Korea, be voided.” However, self-regulation of the industry is not the most effective
    179 PCTR 18 E fin
    9
    method of sanctions enforcement. Denying maritime insurance to North Korean shipping can be one
    of the most effective tools to deter North Korea’s behaviour.
    49. Third, there is still room to expand the DPRK sanctions regime. NATO Allies could be
    encouraged to expedite the repatriation of DPRK labour ahead of the 24-month timeline included in
    UNSCR 2397 (2017). Maritime insurance restrictions could be expanded to all DPRK vessels and
    vessels engaged in trade with the DPRK. Instead of limits on refined petroleum products and crude
    oil, the UN could pursue outright bans similar to those placed on the sale of some natural resources.
    Countries could also adopt and enforce secondary sanctions targeting the banks that continue to
    support trade and business with North Korea. This would effectively cut off those banks from the
    international financial system and impose a cost few would be willing to bear.
    50. Finally, the international community must make clear once again the carrot it is willing to offer
    to convince North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons programme. Such incentives are essential
    to the success of sanctions regimes intended to deter undesirable behaviour. In response to illicit
    Iranian nuclear activities, the UN established a robust sanctions regime that drove Iran to the
    negotiating table. But it was the promise of relaxed sanctions and increased international trade that
    convinced Iran to reverse its nuclear programme and adopt the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
    (JCPOA), with which it is in compliance to this day. Articulating incentives for denuclearisation is an
    essential component of any diplomatic engagement with North Korea. The recent meetings and
    declarations between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as well as
    between Chairman Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in are intended to secure
    the verified denuclearisation of the DPRK in a peaceful manner. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
    has visited North Korea at least four times to further this diplomatic effort and in October 2018
    reportedly came to an agreement during a meeting with Kim Jong-un to plan a second meeting
    between President Trump and Kim Jong-un.
    51. However, at the point of writing it is too early to tell if the DPRK leadership is prepared to
    implement its international obligations in exchange for a declaration that ends the Korean War and
    a roll back of the international sanctions’ regime. After the Singapore Summit, there were widespread
    reports that the US intelligence community (IC) had confirmed that the DPRK was expanding
    activities at the factory that produced the country’s first ICBM. Another US IC report detailed DPRK
    efforts in the wake of the Summit to conceal its nuclear activities. There is significant concern that
    the DPRK is misleading the international community regarding the magnitude and content of its illicit
    nuclear program. (Washington Post, June 2018). With these setbacks in mind, it is necessary to
    enforce a robust sanctions regime until the DPRK demonstrates a verifiable commitment to
    denuclearisation. And just as was the case with the JCPOA, NATO countries could play a role
    supporting, financing, or brokering an agreement on denuclearisation.
    VI. NATO AND MARITIME INTERDICTION
    52. Beyond sanctions and directly relevant to the NATO mission is the need for more robust
    maritime interdiction activities targeting shipments in violation of UN DPRK sanctions – particularly
    interdiction efforts that disrupt North Korea’s arms distribution networks in the MENA region.
    53. To increase the pressure on the DPRK, the international community has sanctioned
    companies and vessels that are involved in illicit trade. In this context, the UN announced a new
    round of sanctions in March 2018 against 21 companies and 28 vessels involved in smuggling
    prohibited goods in and out of the DPRK (Nichols, 2018). Other recent measures introduced to
    prevent North Korea’s illicit shipping activities include US sanctions of six cargo ships in
    January 2018 and the UN Security Council blacklisting of four vessels in December 2017. To help
    enforce sanctions against illicit shipments, the US Treasury Department issued a global shipping
    advisory that identifies the methods North Korean vessels use to evade sanctions, including turning
    off transponders, changing ship identities, and conducting ship-to-ship transfers. The restrictions
    179 PCTR 18 E fin
    10
    placed on the sale of DPRK goods and arms are only effective if they are enforced, which will require
    global maritime operations that intercept, inspect, and impound illicit DPRK shipments.
    54. NATO and NATO Allies have an interest in supporting these enforcement efforts and
    countering the proliferation of WMDs. The recent Panel of Experts report details the illegal
    cooperation between Syria and North Korea on chemical and ballistic missile weapons programmes.
    The report includes information on “more than 40 previously unreported shipments from the
    Democratic People’s Republic of Korea to the Syrian Arab Republic between 2012 and 2017 by
    entities designated by Member States as front companies for the Scientific Studies Research Centre
    of the Syrian Arab Republic.” The Panel of Experts also published findings that DPRK technicians
    continue to “operate at chemical weapons and missile facilities at Barzah, Adra and Hama,” and that
    13 shipping containers bound for Syria were concealing enough DPRK acid-resistant tiles for a
    large-scale industrial chemical weapons project.
    55. Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad has repeatedly used chemical weapons on Syrian civilian
    populations. The attacks constitute a particularly horrific and condemnable aspect of Assad’s
    brutality and are in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention. The use of chemical weapons
    has escalated the war and contributes to the ensuing humanitarian crisis in Syria, which has already
    resulted in more than 400,000 deaths and the displacement of 11 million Syrians – four million of
    whom are in NATO member Turkey and one million of whom have sought refuge in Europe (Syrian
    Refugees, 2016).
    56. In October 2016, NATO launched Operation Sea Guardian to, among other things, perform
    maritime interdiction, and counter the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. For the
    performance of maritime interdiction, assets may be “assigned for quick-response actions and may
    use Special Operations Forces and experts in chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN)
    weapons to board suspect vessels.”
    57. NATO has Standing Naval Forces (SNF) that provide the Alliance with a continuous naval
    presence and carry out scheduled exercises, manoeuvres and port visits. They have been deployed
    in the past. For example, Operation Unified Protector was critical to the implementation of a maritime
    arms embargo on Libya in 2011. NATO has also been assisting Frontex (the European Union’s
    border management agency), and Greek and Turkish national authorities in their efforts to tackle the
    migrant and refugee crisis in the Aegean. Between 2009 and 2016, Operation Ocean Shield
    contributed to international efforts to suppress piracy and protect humanitarian aid shipments off the
    Horn of Africa. A similar operation could and should be established to counter illicit DPRK trade and
    proliferation activities.
    VII. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
    58. North Korea continues to present a grave security risk for international security as long as it
    does not fully implement its international obligations, including the elimination of its nuclear,
    chemical, and biological warfare capabilities and ballistic missiles, and the termination of all related
    programmes. The area of the world within range of North Korea’s ballistic and nuclear weapons
    continues to grow, and the DPRK’s illicit weapons programmes undermine existing non-proliferation
    regimes and international arms control agreements. Pyongyang is also destabilising the highly
    volatile MENA region in Europe’s neighbourhood. This is primarily due to its continuing proliferation
    activities, which include the sale of conventional and nonconventional arms and the provision of
    weapons-related technical expertise. In fact, the 2018 UN report states that “prohibited military
    cooperation with the Syrian Arab Republic has continued unabated.” Therefore, Allies, and NATO
    as an organisation, must clearly and directly focus on dealing with the threats emanating from the
    DPRK.
    179 PCTR 18 E fin
    11
    59. This report recommends that NATO Allies improve enforcement of existing DPRK sanctions
    as well as support the expansion of the DPRK sanctions regime at the UN and/or through their own
    national legislation.
    a) NATO Allies should support the adoption of comprehensive restrictions on maritime
    insurance for DPRK vessels and vessels engaged in trade with the DPRK.
    b) NATO Allies should target banks that violate UN sanctions with secondary sanctions –
    effectively cutting them off from the international financial system.
    c) NATO Allies should increase their already-enhanced scrutiny over the actions of North
    Korean diplomats operating in their countries, to ensure that they are not abusing their
    diplomatic status by engaging in commercial or other activities.
    d) NATO Allies should immediately implement the restrictions on North Korean labourers
    adopted in 2017.
    60. The DPRK’s limited international trade is primarily through shipping vessels. It has
    approximately 240 vessels in its merchant fleet. Therefore, interdiction of illicit shipping emanating
    from North Korea would increase significantly the pressure on the DPRK’s political leadership.
    Interdiction efforts would also help restrict North Korea’s proliferation of WMDs. Maritime forces will
    be needed to effectively implement interdiction efforts and it would be in the interest of all Allies, and
    indeed the international community, to contribute to global maritime operations that seek to disrupt
    illicit North Korean trade.
    61. Therefore, NATO should:
    a) implement the interdiction and counter-proliferation components of Operation Sea
    Guardian in order to help address the DPRK threat to international security.
    b) help prevent illicit trade with North Korea through the deployment of naval assets much
    like the United Kingdom's recent deployment of a British warship to the waters around
    North Korea (Kelly, 2018).
    179 PCTR 18 E fin
    12
    BIBLIOGRAPHY
    CNBC, “China applies its own maximum pressure policy on Pyongyang”, 7 April 2018,
    www.cnbc.com/2018/04/07/china-applies-its-own-maximum-pressure-policy-on-pyongyang.html
    Energy Information Administration, “Korea, North”, May 2017,
    www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=PRK
    The Guardian, “UN experts ‘caved in’ to Russia on North Korea sanctions report – US”, 14 September
    2018 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/14/un-experts-caved-in-to-russia-on-north-
    korea-sanctions-report-us
    Ha, Mathew and Zilberman, Boris, “President Trump Calls Out Russia for Helping North Korean Sanctions
    Evasion”, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Policy Brief, 18 January 2018,
    www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/mathew-ha-president-trump-calls-out-russia-for-helping-
    north-korean-sanctions-evasion/
    Huish, Robert, “The Failure of Maritime Sanctions Enforcement against North Korea”, Asia Policy, no.
    3, January 2017,
    www.nbr.org/publications/asia_policy/free/03312017/AsiaPolicy23_Huish_January2017.pdf
    International Bar Association, “Report: Inquiry on Crimes Against Humanity in North Korea's Political
    Prisons”, 12 December 2017 www.ibanet.org/Article/NewDetail.aspx?ArticleUid=8ae0f29d-4283-
    4151-a573-a66b2c1ab480
    Kelly, Tim, “British warship to help police North Korean sanctions”, Reuters, 11 April 2018,
    hwww.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-britain/british-warship-to-help-police-north-
    korean-sanctions-idUSKBN1HI1HW
    Kelly, Tim, “NATO chief urges full implementation of North Korean sanctions to counter global threat”,
    Reuters, 31 October 2017, www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-nato/nato-chief-urges-
    full-implementation-of-north-korean-sanctions-to-counter-global-threat-idUSKBN1D007J
    Nichols, Michelle, “UN blacklists dozens of ships, companies over North Korea smuggling”, Reuters, 30
    March 2018, www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-un/u-n-blacklists-dozens-of-ships-
    companies-over-north-korea-smuggling-idUSKBN1H61OZ
    Ryall, Julian, “Don’t forget about other foreigners trapped in North Korea’s prison camps, human rights
    activists warn,” The Telegraph, 10 May 2018, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/10/dont-
    forget-foreigners-trapped-north-koreas-prison-camps-human/
    Syrian Refugees, “The Syrian refugee crisis and its repercussions for the EU”, September 2016,
    http://syrianrefugees.eu/
    Taylor, Adam, “North Korea’s mountain mystery: Is Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site still functional?,” The
    Washington Post, 25 April 2018,
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/04/25/north-koreas-mountain-
    mystery-is-punggye-ri-nuclear-test-site-still-functional/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.94e3187e7d68.
    UN POE (United Nations Panel of Experts), “Report of the Panel of Experts established pursuant to
    resolution 1874 (2009)”, S/2018/171, http://undocs.org/S/2018/171
    Warrick, Joby and Simon Denyer, “A ‘massive’ spike in oil smuggling has eased the economic pressure
    on North Korea.” The Washington Post, September 20, 2018,
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/a-massive-spike-in-oil-smuggling-has-
    eased-the-economic-pressure-on-north-korea/2018/09/20/1f6b684a-bc35-11e8-8792-
    78719177250f_story.html?utm_term=.26138dbd2368
    Washington Post, Pompeo, Kim Jong Un Agree To Hold 2nd Summit With Trump As Soon As Possible,
    by Simon Denyer, 7 October 2018
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/pompeo-meets-kim-jong-un-in-north-korea-for-talks-on-
    denuclearization/2018/10/07/d9832280-c997-11e8-9c0f-
    2ffaf6d422aa_story.html?utm_term=.6afed817c304
    Washington Post, North Korea Working To Conceal Key Aspects Of Its Nuclear Program U.S. Officials
    Say, by Ellen Nakashima and Joby Warrick, 30 June 2018
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-working-to-conceal-key-
    aspects-of-its-nuclear-program-us-officials-say/2018/06/30/deba64fa-7c82-11e8-93cc-
    6d3beccdd7a3_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ece8b8efdf25
    ______________________
    www.nato-pa.int
    POLITICAL COMMITTEE
    221 PC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    Original: English
    RESOLUTION 451
    on
    REINFORCING NATO’S CONTRIBUTION TO TACKLING THE
    CHALLENGES FROM THE SOUTH*
    The Assembly,
    1. Emphasising that a secure, economically and socially stable Middle East and North Africa
    (MENA) is of strategic importance for the Alliance;
    2. Acknowledging that the underlying causes fuelling instability and conflict in the region include
    a broad range of economic, environmental, and social issues as well as ineffective governance;
    3. Recognising that instability in the area has provoked massive migration flows towards
    member states at the borders of the region, which have become for those countries a possible cause
    of instability;
    4. Recognising that the Alliance as an organisation does not have the necessary instruments to
    address these underlying causes that fuel radicalisation;
    5. Noting, however, that NATO does make an important contribution to the stability of the MENA
    region through its political dialogue and particularly through its assistance to partner countries of the
    Mediterranean Dialogue (MD) and the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI);
    6. Recognising the essential role of Operation Barkhane for Euro-Atlantic security;
    7. Appalled by the actions of the regime of Bashar al-Assad against its own population, including
    the barbaric use of chemical weapons, but aware that only a negotiated political solution on the
    basis of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254 can produce a lasting solution to the
    conflict;
    8. Commending the Iraqi security forces and the Government of Iraq for their success against
    Daesh and for the restoration of sovereign control over all Iraqi territory, but aware that Daesh and
    other terror organisations remain a serious threat unless the underlying causes fuelling radicalisation
    are addressed;
    9. Stressing that the war in Syria and the instability in Iraq is a major source of instability far
    beyond their borders, exacerbating an already volatile security situation in the MENA region and
    beyond, adversely affecting trans-Atlantic security in its entirety;
    * Presented by the Political Committee and adopted by the Plenary Assembly on Monday 19 November
    2018, Halifax, Canada
    221 PC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    2
    10. Recognising that the involvement of foreign actors which pursue competing agendas and
    support the rival factions is a main factor that has impeded the implementation of the UN action plan
    for Libya;
    11. Recognising that hybrid strategies are not exclusively used against our countries, and that
    we must envisage their potential use by different adversaries, some of which might come from the
    South;
    12. Noting that the volatile security situation of North Africa is not only affected by developments
    within the region, but also by spill-over effects from other parts in Africa and that we cannot forget
    that there is a serious terrorist threat with roots in the region, which demands greater attention to the
    South;
    13. Recognising the efforts made so far by Spain, Italy, Greece and other countries in the face of
    the migration challenge resulting from insecurity and instability in North Africa, and the need to
    provide assistance and support to those countries in managing migration flows in a sustainable,
    inclusive manner;
    14. Welcoming the decisions taken by Allied Heads of State and Government at the 2018
    Brussels Summit that aim at building a stronger and more dynamic relationship with NATO’s
    southern partners and highlighting the importance of NATO’s Hub for the South for improving the
    Alliance’s awareness and understanding of the threats coming from the Middle East and Africa;
    15. Noting that NATO’s cooperation with the African Union is an integral part of both NATO’s
    Framework for the South and the Alliance’s efforts in projecting stability;
    16. Emphasising the fact that 22 of the 29 Allies are also members of the European Union which
    shares the same interests in the MENA region, and recognising that the EU is playing an important
    role in economic development and in the promotion of good governance, democracy, rule of law and
    human rights in the Middle East and in Africa as well as the efforts made by the EU in the region, by
    means of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), with missions that are important for
    the security of our allies, such as EUTM Mali, EUTM RCA and EUTM Somalia;
    17. URGES member governments and parliaments of the North Atlantic Alliance:
    a. to continue assisting NATO partner countries in the MENA region in capacity building and
    other defence-related activities that help the partners create professional and accountable
    security institutions, which is central to improving the stability of partner countries and the
    whole MENA region;
    b. to provide adequate financial and personnel resources to implement the non-combat NATO
    training mission in Iraq and encourage the Iraqi government to address the shortfalls in good
    governance;
    c. to develop a joint, coordinated, Allied approach towards a political solution to the war in Syria
    that is acceptable to all main stakeholders and also holds the Assad regime accountable for
    its human rights violations and the use of chemical weapons;
    d. to agree on a shared policy towards Libya in the area of defence assistance and security
    institution building, as well as to use diplomatic leverage to force the actors on the ground to
    implement the UN action plan;
    e. to expand and deepen collaboration between NATO and the European Union in the MENA
    region, including by assisting partners in building their capacities and fostering resilience;
    221 PC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    3
    f. to enable NATO exploring ways to expand and deepen its relations with regional organisations
    to help them improve their capacities to address security threats in the MENA region and in
    other parts of Africa;
    g. to further enhance the operability of the Hub for the South in Naples (NATO Strategic Direction
    South – Hub);
    h. to consider how NATO can strengthen military cooperation between Allies to stabilise the G5
    Sahel countries.
    _______________
    SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
    COMMITTEE (STC)
    RUSSIAN MEDDLING IN
    ELECTIONS AND
    REFERENDA IN THE
    ALLIANCE
    General Report
    by Susan DAVIS (United States)
    General Rapporteur
    181 STC 18 E fin | Original: English | 18 November 2018
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    I. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................1
    II. RUSSIA’S MOTIVATIONS BEHIND MEDDLING IN ELECTIONS AND REFERENDA ..........1
    III. WHAT WE KNOW: RECENT RUSSIAN MEDDLING IN ALLIED COUNTRIES .....................4
    A. THE UNITED STATES .................................................................................................4
    B. THE UNITED KINGDOM ..............................................................................................7
    C. FRANCE.......................................................................................................................8
    D. GERMANY ...................................................................................................................8
    E. SPAIN...........................................................................................................................9
    F. THE NETHERLANDS...................................................................................................9
    IV. POLICY RESPONSES AND THE WAY FORWARD............................................................ 10
    A. ELECTION INFRASTRUCTURE ................................................................................ 10
    B. INFORMATION SYSTEMS......................................................................................... 11
    C. SOCIAL AND MASS MEDIA....................................................................................... 12
    D. OTHER APPROACHES ............................................................................................. 15
    IV. CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................. 16
    SELECT BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................... 17
    181 STC 18 E fin
    1
    I. INTRODUCTION
    1. Russia under President Vladimir Putin has become deeply dissatisfied with the liberal
    international order—so much so that the Russian state is actively seeking to undermine it. It is
    unclear what marked the turning point. Many point to President Putin’s speech at the 2007 Munich
    Security Conference when he harshly criticized the United States, NATO and even the European
    Union (EU) and called for a new world order. Others point to Russia’s military actions in Georgia in
    2008 or in Ukraine since 2014. What is clear today is Russia’s desire to return to geopolitical
    zero-sum games and reclaim what it considers its spheres of influence. To reshape the international
    order along those lines, Russia seeks to undermine its most stalwart defenders in Europe and
    North America. The Russian regime seeks to destabilize their democracies and, indeed, the very
    idea of liberal democracy in order to prop up its own position.
    2. Russia’s subversive efforts take many shapes and forms. While Russia has used force in
    support of this strategy, most efforts are non-military and seek to probe and exploit weaknesses in
    others through, inter alia, political and informational means, economic intimidation and manipulation
    (NATO PA, 2015). In 2018, the Committee on the Civil Dimension of Security (CDS) of the
    NATO Parliamentary Assembly (NATO PA) examines Russian overall hybrid operations in its special
    report Countering Russia’s Hybrid Threats: An Update (NATO PA, 2018).
    3. To complement the CDS report, the General Rapporteur of the Science and Technology
    Committee (STC) has decided to focus this general report on one of the most worrying hybrid threats:
    meddling in elections and referenda via cyber and information operations. The Russian way of cyber
    and information warfare is to attack and/or exploit the very institutions that make liberal democracies
    strong, particularly freedom of the press, freedom of speech, and free and fair elections. As is
    becoming abundantly clear, Russia has targeted several elections and referenda over the last few
    years. This conduct is unacceptable. Credible elections and referenda are at the heart of liberal
    democracy. Elections are the expression of the will of the people and therefore the basis of a
    government’s authority. Referenda are a highly valued form of direct democracy in many polities,
    including the Rapporteur’s home state of California. If citizens lose trust in either of these processes,
    their democracies are at severe risk.
    4. The challenge of Russian cyber and information operations, including against elections and
    referenda, is a strategic challenge for the Alliance. It requires responses at every level, in all forums
    and through every channel. As elected representatives of the people, it is of utmost importance that
    the lawmakers of the Alliance address the challenge and that the NATO PA devise clear and strong
    recommendations for Allied governments and parliaments.
    5. This general report, adopted in Halifax, Canada in November 2018, first addresses the different
    motivational drivers behind Russian meddling in elections and referenda in the Alliance. Second, it
    examines a few important elections and referenda in the Alliance where meddling took place or was
    a serious concern. Third, it discusses a range of policy responses, which served as the basis for a
    resolution, also adopted at the 2018 NATO PA Annual Session.
    II. RUSSIA’S MOTIVATIONS BEHIND MEDDLING IN ELECTIONS AND REFERENDA
    6. Despite the rhetoric of its leaders, Russia cannot compete toe-to-toe with NATO members. Its
    Gross Domestic Product (GDP) amounts to about USD 1.3 trillion compared to the United States’
    USD 19 trillion and the EU’s USD 17 trillion. By 2020, Russia is projected to spend USD 41 billion
    on military spending compared to NATO’s USD 892 billion—at a time when Russia is militarily
    overstretched due to its involvement in conflicts around the globe (Meakins, 2017). Moreover, its
    government remains beleaguered by severe corruption and an inability to address growing social
    problems, including severe poverty and inequality.
    181 STC 18 E fin
    2
    7. Perceiving itself as being at a dangerous disadvantage against potential adversaries, Russia’s
    “weakened geopolitical position forces it to play the role of spoiler to assert its interests” (Beaulieu
    and Keil, 2018). Russian leaders have thus, inter alia, used cyberattacks and other instruments that
    the Soviet Union once called “active measures” or information operations to discredit liberal ideals
    and undermine democracies. Information operations are not a new addition to Russia’s toolkit, but
    their reach and effectiveness have been increased by the vast and often unsecured cyberspace,
    which “allows for the high-speed spread of disinformation” (Fried and Polyakova, 2018).
    8. While digital technology is undeniably a force multiplier, it is imperative to recall that information
    operations “are very human in design and implementation” (Watts, 2017). Those engaging in
    information operations try “to shape the target’s preferences in line with the pre-defined aims of the
    sender” which involves “an active learning process on the part of the target” (Splidsboel Hansen,
    2017). Information operations thus rely very much upon cutting-edge social, behavioral and cognitive
    sciences (Paul and Matthews, 2016).
    9. The specific aims of Russia’s meddling vary, depending on the circumstances, and they are
    not mutually exclusive. Indeed, analysts argue that the Russian leadership follows an “operationally
    opportunist approach” (Beaulieu and Keil, 2018). First, Russian meddling aims to exacerbate
    pre-existing tensions within a society. Wherever Russian meddling has been suspected, hackers
    and trolls have demonstrated a sophisticated understanding of the anxieties that divide a country. In
    the United States, Russian operatives purchased advertisements that inflamed religious and political
    grievances to undermine its civil society (Lecher, 2017). In Germany, Russian bot networks exploited
    debates over the government’s refugee policies to try to weaken Chancellor Angela Merkel (Meister,
    2016). Moreover, in Spain, Russian media and Russian bot networks fanned Catalonian separatism,
    contributing to one of Spain’s biggest constitutional crises of the modern era (Emmott, 2017). These
    incidents show Russia’s use of technology to weaken a sitting government, undermine the opposition
    or make liberal democracy appear undesirable (Alandete, 2017b).
    10. Importantly, these divisions are not created out of thin air. Not every person who is involved in
    a divisive political debate is a Russian agent, nor is every bot network operated by Russian
    government operatives. Instead, Russian operatives insert themselves where they believe they can
    make an impact. Operatives exploit existing animosities by amplifying and elevating the most
    extreme voices to distort a country’s public discourse. Media outlets like RT, which operates on a
    budget matching some of the biggest global media groups, provide conspiracy theorists and radical
    groups with the opportunity to spread their message. During the 2016 US elections, Russian agents
    masqueraded as US citizens on Facebook and Twitter to fuel highly partisan debates. Speaking
    about Russian bot activity, John Kelly, the founder of a social media marketing firm, noted that “[t]he
    Russians aren’t just pumping up the right wing in America. They’re also pumping up left-wing stuff
    — they’re basically trying to pump up the fringe at the expense of the middle” (Rutenberg, 2017). As
    Mr Kelly told the US Senate: “The extremes are screaming while the majority whispers” (Kelly, 2018).
    In short, Russian meddling plays on existing fault lines in a society.
    11. Second, Russian meddling seeks to undermine faith in liberal democratic institutions.
    Since the so-called color revolutions of the early 2000s, Russian leaders have, in the words of
    political sociologist Larry Diamond, “behaved as if obsessed with fear that the virus of mass
    democratic mobilization might spread to Russia itself” (Diamond, 2016). By weakening democratic
    institutions, Russian leaders see a way to weaken their perceived adversaries and level the playing
    field. Suggestions of corruption or official misconduct can force democratic governments to turn
    inward to deal with discontent and apathy within their own electorates. As early as the
    2012 US presidential election, Russian media reported that US democracy was a “sham” and
    suggested, “that US election results [could not] be trusted and [did] not reflect popular will” (Office of
    the Director of National Intelligence, 2017). Following protests in Catalonia, observers argued that
    Russian bots circulated messages suggesting Spain was violent and undemocratic
    (Milosevich-Juaristi, 2017).
    181 STC 18 E fin
    3
    12. Moreover, delegitimizing democracy helps Russian leaders sell their system of government to
    citizens within Russia and abroad. As stated by the Minority Staff of the US Senate Committee on
    Foreign Relations: “If Putin can demonstrate to the Russian people that elections everywhere are
    tainted and fraudulent, that liberal democracy is a dysfunctional and dying form of government, then
    their own system of ‘sovereign democracy’ […] does not look so bad after all” (Minority Staff of the
    Committee on Foreign Relations, 2018). [Russian political leaders use the term “sovereign
    democracy” to describe the current political system in the country.] A weak West distracts from
    problems at home and provides a justification for holding onto power. Further, it makes Russia look
    more attractive to potential allies who could be alienated by the perceived failures and hypocrisies
    of the liberal democratic world order. If all politicians are corrupt and all elections are fraudulent, then
    there is no point in pursuing democracy at all (Zygar, 2016).
    13. Third, Russian meddling tries to advance politicians and political groups perceived as
    amenable or friendly to Russian influence and discredit those seen as hostile. In Europe,
    Western intelligence agencies have, for example, reported Russian support for parties and
    organizations that undermine NATO and EU cohesion or advance Russian economic and political
    interests (Foster, 2016). In France, then-candidate Emmanuel Macron, noted for his opposition to
    many of Russia’s policies, suffered a major cyberattack that threatened to derail his candidacy. In
    contrast, his main rival, known for her pro-Russian views, was invited to the Kremlin and received
    extensive positive coverage by Russian media outlets.
    14. A study by the Center for European Policy Analysis found that Sputnik, a Russian media outlet,
    granted “disproportionate coverage to protest, anti-establishment and pro-Russian members of the
    European Parliament” and did so in a deceptive fashion that “fit the [station’s] wider narrative of a
    corrupt, decadent and Russophobic West” (Nimmo, 2016). Movements that exacerbated internal
    tensions, threatened the cohesion of the EU and attacked NATO expansion tended to receive
    support from the Russian state. Movements that supported the opposite tended to be attacked or
    vilified.
    15. Lastly, Russian meddling tries to foment chaos and uncertainty in Western countries. In
    July 2016, RT and Sputnik News published false stories about a US airbase in Incirlik, Turkey being
    overrun by extremists (Sputnik News, 2016). Observers reported intense activity by pro-Russian bot
    networks and social media aggregators that amplified the story and spread conspiracies about the
    imminent capture of nuclear missiles by terrorists (Fox, 2017). In January 2016, Russian-speaking
    communities in Germany were consumed by rumors that the government had covered up the rape
    of a girl by migrants. Russian media outlets and later also Russia’s Foreign Ministry spread the story,
    which insinuated that the official version of events was not to be trusted (Rutenberg, 2017).
    16. Alina Polyakova of the Atlantic Council argues that the goal of such stories and of Russian
    meddling more broadly is to “manufacture some sort of political paralysis while at the same time
    raising the level of pro-Russian voices” to “destabilize politics and sow chaos” (Luhn, 2017).
    Individuals are induced to distrust their governments and mainstream media outlets in favor of
    conspiracies and rumors. The line between fact and fiction becomes blurred, making it easier for
    false or deceptive narratives to enter the public discourse (Fox, 2017). This confusion can be used
    to undermine the fabric of a society. It can also be used to support narratives within Russia about an
    impending global calamity that necessitates strong domestic leadership (Weisburd, Watts, and
    Berger, 2016).
    17. In short, Russian misinformation and disinformation seek to accomplish multiple, interrelated
    goals to undermine the West and promote the interests of Russia’s leaders. They allow Russia to
    spread narratives that can influence, to its advantage, the way individuals, both at home and abroad,
    interact with political systems. Without resorting to direct military confrontation or substantial
    investments, Russian leaders thus seek to shape international affairs in their favor.
    181 STC 18 E fin
    4
    III. WHAT WE KNOW: RECENT RUSSIAN MEDDLING IN ALLIED COUNTRIES
    18. Attribution in cyber space is notoriously difficult. This fact is especially true for information
    operations, which seek to create an environment of doubt, mistrust and confusion. Targets often
    prefer to conceal or downplay security breaches rather than face the embarrassment of public
    exposure. Social media platforms used to spread false or misleading narratives tend to be secretive
    with their data. The government agencies charged with investigating these incidents traditionally
    operate discreetly. Moreover, many of the components involved in information operations, including
    hacks, misreporting and bot networks, are just as available to private citizens as they are to state
    actors.
    19. As such, it is difficult to discuss Russian interference without caveats. Although the Russian
    government is widely believed to have sponsored operations to discredit and destabilize liberal
    democracies, the extent and specifics of these operations remain unclear in many instances. In
    general, few government or parliamentary documents provide detailed, substantiated accounts of
    influence operations across the Alliance. Consequently, this section relies, in part, on public reporting
    and government statements to better understand allegations of Russian election and referendum
    interference in the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Spain and the Netherlands.
    These cases are illustrative because they involved a high number of credible reports alleging
    Russian cyber meddling and/or active steps initiated by governments and parliaments to prepare for
    any foreign meddling.
    20. To keep this report concise, it focuses on cases of election and referendum meddling in Allied
    countries only. However, many of the patterns have been very similar in other countries, notably the
    former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia1
    , Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro (before it joined the
    Alliance), Sweden and Ukraine. Indeed, Russia first tested its cyber and information capabilities to
    influence domestic politics in NATO partner countries, especially in Georgia and Ukraine. Allies have
    already identified many lessons and best practices from their partners’ experiences, as the
    Committee heard at the 2018 Spring Session. Going forward, the Alliance should continue to learn
    from partners, but also contribute to their resilience against such operations.
    A. THE UNITED STATES
    21. The US Presidential election of 2016 presents the most high-profile case of Russian meddling
    in elections. Four principal efforts were pursued: theft of information; selective dissemination of
    information; a propaganda campaign; and efforts to hack into voting systems across the country
    (Van de Velde, 2017).
    22. Several key executive branch, Congressional and expert assessments have already been
    released publicly, but the investigations into Russian interference remain on-going. At the executive
    and Congressional levels, notable documents include:
    - the January 2017 US Intelligence Community Assessment produced by the CIA, NSA, and
    FBI;
    - the March 2018 House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Report adopted by the
    Majority Party;
    - the March 2018 Minority Views on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
    Report; and
    - the July 2018 Senate Select Committee on Intelligence’s initial findings on the 2017
    Intelligence Community Assessment.
    23. What has become abundantly clear from all official and expert investigations is that Russia
    interfered with and sought to undermine public faith in the US democratic process. Although Russia
    1 Turkey recognises the Republic of Macedonia with its constitutional name.
    181 STC 18 E fin
    5
    and, previously, the Soviet Union have frequently attacked liberal democracies and sought to
    influence the outcomes of specific elections in the United States, Russia’s actions in 2016
    represented a significant escalation in activity, scope and directness.
    24. Overt intrusions into public and private organizations as well as propaganda and
    disinformation enabled the Russian campaign. As reported in the January 2017 Intelligence
    Community Assessment, Russian intelligence officials targeted the personal and professional email
    accounts of officials associated with both parties (Office of the Director of National Intelligence,
    2017). Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta had his email compromised after he mistakenly
    clicked on a spear-phishing email (Osnos, Remnick, and Yaffa, 2017). In his January 2017 testimony
    before the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, the then-director of the FBI,
    Mr James Comey, similarly claimed that Russian intelligence targeted and gained “limited access”
    to the Republican National Committee by compromising old email accounts and state-level
    Republican party organizations (Senate Select Intelligence Committee, 2017). However, according
    to the January 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment, Russia “did not conduct a comparable
    disclosure campaign” (Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2017). Think tanks, lobbying
    groups, and other politically relevant individuals were also targeted as early as March 2016 (Office
    of the Director of National Intelligence, 2017).
    25. Using this illicitly collected information, Russian officials launched a propaganda and
    misinformation campaign that relied on state-funded media, third-party intermediaries and paid trolls.
    Throughout the campaign, the fictitious DCLeaks and Guccifer 2.0, as well as WikiLeaks, contacted
    journalists and published emails, private phone numbers, campaign documents and other
    documents. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein made clear that DCLeaks and Guccifer 2.0
    “were created and controlled by the Russian GRU [the Russian Main Intelligence Directorate]” (De
    La Garza 2018). These publications generated negative campaign coverage from established
    trendsetting news outlets, such as The New York Times (Watts and Rothschild, 2017).
    26. Further, these events were extensively reported by Russian media outlets, including
    English-language outlets such as RT and Sputnik. RT, formerly known as Russia Today, is an
    international cable and satellite television network modelled after Western 24-hour news networks
    like CNN and the BBC. Sputnik, a government-run news commentary website and radio broadcast
    service, models itself after brash internet news sites like Buzzfeed. Both organizations are widely
    accused of serving as vehicles of Russian propaganda and amplifying extreme voices in their host
    countries (Rutenberg, 2017). Indeed, in 2017, the US Department of Justice required RT America to
    register under the Foreign Agent Registration Act. During the election, these sites used information
    disclosures to bolster their narrative about the failings of Western liberal democracy.
    27. These activities were exacerbated by a coordinated campaign on social media platforms to
    highlight these disclosures, spread false stories and delegitimize the US government. On Facebook,
    officials have uncovered at least 120 fake Russian-backed accounts that spread messages seen by
    29 million US citizens (Solon and Siddiqui, 2017). These pages include attempts to organize
    129 offline, real-world events that were seen by 338,300 people in the United States (Volz and
    Ingram, 2018). It is unclear how many of these events were attended and how many people
    participated (Seetharaman, 2017). As of January 2018, Twitter had identified at least
    50,258 Russian bot accounts that posted information related to the US election.
    28. On both Facebook and Twitter, Russian accounts allegedly spread messages thought to be
    disruptive to US civil society or beneficial to Russian goals. This disruption effort included stealing
    identities and posing as fake US citizens, operating social media pages and other internet-based
    media targeted at a US audience and amplifying the views of real but divisive US citizens
    (Department of Justice, 2018). Messages sought to exploit and enrage both sides of controversial
    issues, including gun rights, immigration, LGBT rights and police use of force (Lecher, 2017).
    They also sought to directly influence the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election. This
    “firehose of falsehood,” as RAND Corporation researchers describe it, produced high volumes of
    181 STC 18 E fin
    6
    misinformation over many different channels to demoralize and divide the public (Paul and Matthews,
    2016).
    29. In addition to these attacks, US officials claim that Russia targeted some voter databases
    during the 2016 election. On 22 September 2017, the US Department of Homeland Security informed
    21 states that Russia had attempted to access state voter databases (Borchers, 2017). The Senate
    Intelligence Committee assessed that “[i]n a small number of states, these cyber actors were in a
    position to, at a minimum, alter or delete voter registration data; however, they did not appear to be
    in a position to manipulate individual votes or aggregate vote totals” (Burr et al., 2018). Though these
    databases can contain the usernames and passwords of election officials or the names, dates of
    birth, gender, driver’s licenses, and partial Social Security numbers of voters, it is unclear what the
    hackers planned to do with this information.
    30. The 2018 US midterm elections took place in the interval between the writing of this report
    and its discussion at the 2018 NATO PA Annual Session. These elections were widely expected to
    be a target for Russia and possibly other foreign governments attempting to influence US politics.
    Indeed, a few instances of meddling had already emerged at the time of writing. In July and August
    2018, Facebook, Twitter, and Microsoft announced the removal of accounts. On 31 July 2018,
    Facebook removed 32 pages and accounts from Facebook and Instagram without attributing
    responsibility on who stood behind the attempt to influence the midterm elections (Roose, 2018). An
    additional 652 group pages and accounts were removed by Facebook and 284 accounts by Twitter
    on 22 August (Lapowsky, 2018). Both Russian and Iranian accounts were included in this group,
    which also highlights the broader threat of foreign meddling coming from countries beyond Russia
    (Solon, 2018). The Microsoft Corporation also deleted and seized accounts reportedly created by
    the GRU, which were targeting the Hudson Institute and the International Republican Institute – both
    prominent conservative think tanks. Over the past two years, Microsoft has furthermore shut down
    84 fake websites over allegations of using phishing emails to gain access to networks (Dwoskin and
    Timberg, 2018). Spear-phishing attacks on US members of or candidates for Congress appear to
    have continued since the 2016 elections, which has prompted individual political campaigns to hire
    expensive cyber and information experts on staff.
    31. In response to signs of continued attempts at interference, the US executive branch and
    Congress have taken active steps to secure the midterm elections. Since January 2017, over 60 bills
    related to election security have been introduced in the US Congress. In the 2018 omnibus spending
    bill, the US Congress included USD 380 million in funding for the Help America Vote Act (HAVA).
    Efforts to institute clear sanction mechanisms against election interference have also been
    advocated. Senators Marco Rubio and Chris Van Hollen have championed the bipartisan Defending
    Elections from Threats by Establishing Redlines Act (Deter Act) as one avenue to dissuade foreign
    interference in the midterms. In September 2018, President Donald Trump signed an executive order
    on Imposing Certain Sanctions in the Event of Foreign Interference in a United States Election. In a
    joint statement, Senators Rubio and Van Hollen expressed their hope to go further on mandatory
    sanctions for those who might attack the US electoral systems (Van Hollen and Rubio, 2018).
    181 STC 18 E fin
    7
    B. THE UNITED KINGDOM
    32. After reports of Russian interference in the US presidential election emerged, members of the
    British public expressed concerns about potential Russian meddling in the United Kingdom’s 2016
    EU membership referendum and its 2017 general elections. On 8 June 2017, the day of the United
    Kingdom’s general election, the British Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) warned
    British energy companies that their systems might have been compromised by “advanced
    state-sponsored hostile threat actors.” However, it is not known if this incident was related to the
    elections. Indeed, there were no known hackings or intrusions during the referendum and general
    elections campaigns (Williams-Grut, 2017). The government states that “to date, [it] has not seen
    evidence of successful interference in UK elections” (Roberts and Nokes, 2017).
    33. Russia’s influence in public discourse is unclear. While Prime Minister Theresa May accuses
    Russia of “planting fake stories” to “undermine free societies” and “sow discord in the West”, attempts
    to study Russia’s influence in the United Kingdom have revealed different estimates
    (BBC News, 2017). Oxford University, for example, found 105 Twitter accounts, tweeting 16,000
    times, were linked to Russia. Overall, only 0.6% of tweets with the Brexit hashtag were linked to
    Russian news sources. Using a list of profile names provided to the US Congress, Edinburgh
    University found that 419 Russian Twitter accounts tweeted about both the US presidential election
    and the EU referendum (Booth et al., 2017). The Guardian newspaper found that these accounts
    were cited more than 80 times by the British press (Hern et al., 2017). A third study by City University
    of London found 13,500 bot accounts tweeting about the referendum. These bots operated as a
    “supervised network of zombie agents” and were deactivated or removed by Twitter shortly after
    polling closed. Bots “tweeted mainly messages supporting the Leave campaign”, but researchers
    did not find evidence of widespread fake news and did not attempt to identify the owner of this
    network (City Press Office, 2017). Meanwhile, Swansea University and Berkeley University claim to
    have found 156,252 Russian accounts that mentioned Brexit in the days before the referendum
    (Reuters, 2017). The disparities in these estimates are the result of differing methodologies and
    Twitter’s refusal to share much of its data with researchers.
    34. These and other reports have triggered official investigations. In October 2017, the House of
    Commons Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee began a wide-ranging inquiry linked to
    Russia during the Brexit referendum and the 2017 general election. In November 2017, the
    Intelligence and Security Committee announced that it would investigate issues around Russian
    activity against the United Kingdom (Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament, 2017).
    A separate investigation on digital campaigning by the Electoral Commission is also underway
    (Posner, 2017).
    35. In July 2018, the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee released an interim report on
    disinformation and fake news (UK House of Commons Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee,
    2018). The Committee acknowledged the role that Russia has played in manipulating popular
    sentiment during referenda and national elections in Europe and the United States. The Committee
    offered suggestions on how to make tech companies more responsible for disinformation and fake
    news being spread on social media platforms. Additionally, the Committee called for a broader
    investigation into the scale of the problem in order to offer recommendations for actions.
    36. Since June 2018, the actions of two prominent Brexit campaigners have drawn increasing
    scrutiny in the United Kingdom. Andy Wigmore, spokesman for the Leave.EU campaign, and Arron
    Banks, a major financial backer for Brexit, have faced criticism for their contacts with the Russian
    embassy in the run-up to the Brexit referendum, including an alleged exchange of confidential legal
    documents with officials at the Russian embassy and discussions about business deals (Cadwalladr
    and Jukes, 2018; UK House of Commons Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee). According
    to the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee, the UK National Crime Agency is still
    investigating the matter at the time of writing.
    181 STC 18 E fin
    8
    C. FRANCE
    37. During the 2017 French presidential election, then-candidate Emmanuel Macron and his party
    reported that they had suffered cyberattacks and false reports on social media. In February 2017,
    Mr Macron’s digital campaign reported: “thousands of attempted attacks [against Mr Macron’s]
    servers [from] tens of thousands of computers […] at the same time” (Beardsley, 2017). Macron
    campaign officials faced phishing attacks that exposed their networks to external actors
    (Hacquebord, 2017). On social media, Mr Macron was the subject of several fake stories (Chrisafis,
    2018). The source of these attacks remains unclear.
    38. Most prominently, Mr Macron was the target of a major coordinated leak designed to damage
    his candidacy. On 5 May 2017, 36 hours before the French run-off election, a 9-gigabyte file
    appeared on internet forums and open-source sharing sites (Greenberg, 2017a). The document
    purported to contain Macron campaign emails, documents, accounting files, contracts and other
    information meant to embarrass the campaign. According to the Macron campaign, the file also
    contained “numerous false documents intended to sow doubt and disinformation”
    (Greenberg, 2017a). The release appeared strategically designed to exploit French laws prohibiting
    campaign coverage less than 48 hours before the election. Despite a press ban on the publishing of
    the content, the leak quickly spread over social media (Dearden, 2017). As in the US presidential
    election, the file and related hashtags were amplified by bots, far-right activists and WikiLeaks (Volz,
    2017).
    39. Most French cybersecurity experts have declined to attribute this incident to Russia officially.
    After the election, the French government’s chief of cybersecurity claimed that there was insufficient
    proof to attribute such an attack (Associated Press, 2017). Other French sources have commented
    on the amateurism of the attack compared to most state-sponsored cyberattacks. Indeed, the
    Macron team prevented several attacks by inundating the attackers with fake accounts to slow down
    and discredit the intrusion (Challenges, 2017).
    40. However, experts outside France have suggested Russia as a likely perpetrator. Then
    US NSA Director Michael Rogers stated that the United States “had become aware of Russian
    activity” in the French election and that US officials told their French counterparts about this
    (Greenberg, 2017b). In April 2017, a private cybersecurity firm, Trend Micro, reported that the attack
    on Mr Macron bore characteristics similar to the attack against the US Democratic National
    Committee (Hacquebord, 2017).
    41. Like other Allies, France has taken active steps to address cyber and information operations.
    One notable recent action was the July 2018 adoption of a law on the manipulation of information
    during the election period. The so-called fake-news law permits courts to rule whether articles
    published up to three months before an election are credible or should be taken down. It allows
    candidates to sue for the removal of fake news stories and forces social media platforms such as
    Facebook and Twitter to disclose the funding for sponsored content (Young, 2018).
    D. GERMANY
    42. Germany has faced several threats allegedly connected to Russia. In May 2015, Russian
    hackers sent phishing emails to members of the German government, including the office of the
    chancellor. The emails installed a Trojan virus on the computers of MPs and staff members who
    clicked on it. Over the next three weeks, the hackers scoured the German Parliament’s network and
    collected 16 gigabytes of data (Beuth, Biermann, Klingst, and Stark, 2017). Notably, the hackers
    relied on human error, targeting the Parliament near a national holiday when the IT department was
    closed. In 2016, meanwhile, Russian media outlets circulated a false story about an alleged rape to
    delegitimize the German government (Meister, 2016). After protests by Russian-speaking Germans,
    the incident earned a rebuke by German officials, who accused Moscow of “political
    propaganda” (Witte, 2017). Between March and April 2017, a private cybersecurity firm also
    181 STC 18 E fin
    9
    identified unsuccessful attempts by Russia to infiltrate organizations aligned with Germany’s
    two largest political parties (Barker, 2017). In March 2018, the German government confirmed
    reports that its government-run intranet, used to securely exchange information between different
    ministries and government offices, had been breached by a Russian hacking group. The attack
    appeared to focus on the Foreign Ministry and was being treated as “an ongoing process, an ongoing
    attack” (Oltermann, 2018).
    43. In the 2017 German federal elections, however, Russian meddling appeared to be absent.
    While Russian media outlets promoted a high volume of stories that fostered negative views of
    Europe and Germany’s leadership, stolen files from the German Parliament failed to surface.
    Researchers at the London School of Economics, meanwhile, reported a “coordinated
    Russian-language [bot] Twitter network”, but their algorithms suggest that these networks were
    smaller than those deployed in other countries (Applebaum et al., 2017). Researchers with Oxford
    University found that 15% of Twitter traffic associated with “Alternative for Germany” – a party with
    pro-Russian views – had automated attributes, while major political parties averaged between
    7.3 and 9.4% (Neudert et al., 2017). There is no public evidence to suggest Russia’s involvement in
    this bot activity, nor do most observers think bot activity substantially influenced the election.
    E. SPAIN
    44. Spain claims that Russian meddling exacerbated tensions surrounding the 2017 Catalonia
    referendum (Emmott, 2017). In November 2017, Spanish ministers claimed that content related to
    Catalonia was sent from “Russian territory” and “other locations”, such as Venezuela
    (Alandete, 2017a). These claims were supported by a researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute, a
    Spanish think tank. In a report on the Catalonian referendum, the researcher reported that trolls and
    bots disseminated true and false messages on Facebook and Twitter with the goal of provoking
    outrage toward the Spanish government. The messages characterized Spain as violent and
    undemocratic and reinforced images of Western instability (Milosevich-Juaristi, 2017).
    45. Observers have supported some of these claims. In one study carried out by a researcher at
    George Washington University, the author found that stories by Russian outlets, such as RT and
    Sputnik, were circulated far more frequently than stories by other global outlets and ten times as
    frequently stories by as Spanish media counterparts (Alandete, 2017b). “Zombie accounts” spread
    pro-secessionist and anti-Spanish messages online (Alandete, 2017a). Meanwhile, El Pais, a major
    Spanish newspaper, found that tweets by Julian Assange and Edward Snowden in support of
    Catalonian secession were likely amplified by bot activity, with more than 60 retweets occurring every
    minute, and attributed this bot activity to Russia (Alandete, 2017c). The Atlantic Council’s Digital
    Forensic Research Lab found evidence to support claims that Russian propaganda had influenced
    the debate around Catalonia. Notably, researchers found that Assange’s tweets received “extra
    amplification’’ from pro-Russian bots (Nimmo, 2017).
    F. THE NETHERLANDS
    46. Concerned by the meddling in the US Presidential elections in 2016, the Netherlands took
    active steps to prepare for potential Russian interference in the Dutch general elections in
    March 2017, including through active outreach to US officials by former NATO PA President and
    then-Minister of Foreign Affairs Bert Koenders (Brattberg and Maurer, 2018). However, Russian
    interference had already entered Dutch politics on two previous occasions. In October 2015, a group
    of Russian hackers involved in several other major hacks reportedly breached the Dutch Safety
    Board in the period leading up to and after the release of its report on the 2014 downing of flight
    MH17 over eastern Ukraine. In the run-up to the April 2016 referendum on the EU-Ukraine
    Association Agreement, Russian interference in the debate was seen as well, for example through
    agents passing themselves off as Ukrainians to influence local political debates.
    181 STC 18 E fin
    10
    47. To secure public trust in elections, the Netherlands had already banned the use of electronic
    voting in 2007 (Brattberg and Maurer, 2018). Before the March 2017 election, the government further
    strengthened election infrastructure by forbidding the electronic counting of ballots and the use of
    USB flash drives and email by election officials (Chan, 2017). Additionally, the government raised
    awareness of past Russian interference in foreign elections while also informing the Dutch public
    about disinformation and fake news. Furthermore, social media companies instituted a fact-checking
    function for Dutch newspaper articles (Brattberg and Maurer, 2018). Ultimately, the General
    Intelligence and Security Service concluded that Russia was not able to “substantially influence” the
    2017 Dutch elections beyond the spreading of fake news. Independent experts argue that the fact
    the elections were carried out “without any noteworthy interference” could either be explained by
    “active preparations or an apparent lack of Russian effort at interference”, possibly because the
    Russian government did not want to draw further ire in the Netherlands.
    IV. POLICY RESPONSES AND THE WAY FORWARD
    48. In almost all reported cases of suspected Russian meddling, a familiar pattern has emerged.
    First, political parties or government institutions report unauthorized intrusions into their networks.
    Emails are compromised. Personal data is stolen. These intrusions are then followed by significant,
    indiscriminate leaks, circulated on social media and magnified by bots, trolls and other accounts.
    Finally, these leaks are reported on by traditional, trendsetting press outlets that publicize the most
    sensational revelations. Meanwhile, outlets sympathetic to or controlled by the Russian government
    publish false or misleading stories that encourage polarized debates and conspiratorial thinking. The
    result is a bubble of confusion, wherein large amounts of leaked and false information give the
    impression of a scandal (Toucas, 2017).
    49. As detailed in previous sections, there is little doubt that Russian leadership has exploited
    freedom of speech and of the press to delegitimize democratic institutions in NATO member states.
    Nor is there any doubt that Russia’s involvement in such operations will continue in the immediate
    future.
    50. The following sections detail a few policy responses to Russian meddling. These
    recommendations should not be understood as comprehensive or exhaustive as the situation is still
    developing and much of the surrounding analysis remains outside the public view. Rather, these
    sections reflect on promising practices by NATO members, approaches recommended by experts
    and other points commonly broached as part of the discussion on Russian interference (see for
    example: Fly, Rosenberger and Salvo, 2018 or Salvo and Beaulieu, 2018). Specific solutions will
    vary from state to state and from target to target. For clarity, policy responses are categorized into
    four sub-topics: policies that affect election infrastructure; policies that affect information systems;
    policies that affect social and mass media; and other possible measures.
    A. ELECTION INFRASTRUCTURE
    51. To date, there are no known cases of hackers altering vote totals in any election. However,
    there are indications of Russian interest in election infrastructure, such as voter registration systems,
    voting machines, tally servers and election-night reporting. Member states of the Alliance should
    therefore carefully analyses the potential threat. In the United States, for example, senior intelligence
    officials claimed to have “substantial evidence” that Russian-backed hackers gained access to, but
    did not alter, state websites and voter registration systems in seven states during the 2016
    presidential election.
    52. To discourage attacks on these systems, the US Department of Homeland Security designated
    election systems as “critical infrastructure” on 6 January 2017 in order to enhance communication
    between the federal government and election officials while unlocking additional funding for election
    security (Newman, 2017). Two bipartisan bills, the Secure Elections Act and the Protecting the
    181 STC 18 E fin
    11
    American Process for Election Results (PAPER) Act, have been proposed in the US Congress to
    enhance these efforts by eliminating paperless electronic voting machines, providing additional
    funding and assistance to election bodies, and mandating post-election security audits (Stewart,
    2018). At the sub-national level, individual states have taken precautions such as the pre-election
    testing and certification of voting systems as well as requiring ballot reconciliations and audits
    (National Conference of State Legislatures, 2018).
    53. Building on lessons learnt and best practices, your Rapporteur would, in particular, encourage
    fellow Committee members to explore taking the following steps through their national parliaments
    and governments:
    - conduct regular risk assessments of election infrastructure and remedy any identified gaps or
    vulnerabilities;
    - institutionalize pre-election preparations against election interference;
    - mandate post-election security audits;
    - provide adequate funding and assistance to election bodies; and
    - designate election infrastructure as critical infrastructure.
    B. INFORMATION SYSTEMS
    54. More common are hacks that compromise the security of humiliating confidential information.
    As a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies reports, “dumping authentic
    private information in the public domain is key for an attacker to gain credibility and build an audience
    they intend to manipulate” (Toucas, 2017). Authentic information serves as a hook for a larger
    misinformation campaign.
    55. Governments can stop or deter some attacks by encouraging vulnerable organizations to
    adopt traditional cybersecurity measures. For example, most experts believe that organizations
    should have information technology departments with organization-wide visibility and access. They
    should be staffed with trained and professional employees who can purchase the necessary
    hardware and software without prohibitive delays. Meanwhile, all employees and managers should
    be aware of the threats that they face and how they might avoid unnecessary exposure through
    proper cyber hygiene. Workers should know to avoid clicking links or downloading content from
    unknown sources. They should know not to share passwords and personally identifiable information.
    Also, they should be aware that information posted on social media might be used against them.
    If individuals suspect a cyberattack, they should know who to contact.
    56. Additionally, organizations should have clear and actionable protocols to expedite a response
    in the event of an intrusion and ought to know when it is appropriate to notify the relevant law
    enforcement or intelligence agencies. In the United States, for example, staffers at the Democratic
    National Committee were slow to engage the FBI about alleged Russian intrusions into their network
    (Lipton et al., 2016). In Germany, parliamentarians rejected cybersecurity assistance from the
    Federal Office for Information Security because they were concerned “the agency could seek to spy
    on them” (Beuth et al., 2017).
    57. Independent of Russia’s activities, there is growing awareness of the need to develop robust
    cybersecurity capabilities. In 2016, the EU adopted the Network and Information Systems (NIS)
    directive, the first piece of EU-wide legislation on cybersecurity. The directive requires member
    states to develop incident response teams and a national authority competent in the area
    (Cybersecurity and Digital Privacy Unit, 2017). EU member states should promptly transpose the
    directive into national law if they have not done so already. In addition to various laws at the state
    level, the United States federal government passed the 2015 Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act
    to allow intelligence agencies to share information about cybersecurity threats with technology and
    manufacturing companies (Karp, 2016). At the same time, several NATO member states have
    181 STC 18 E fin
    12
    created military cyber commands to specifically counteract unwanted intrusions. France created
    such an organization in December 2017, following the presidential election, and similar institutions
    exist in the United States and Germany (Gramer, 2017). All NATO member states have developed
    a cybersecurity strategy in some form, though such strategies must be regularly updated to remain
    relevant (NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence, 2018).
    58. Several national governments have also implemented laws and regulations that make
    organizations liable for breaches. The French National Commission on Informatics and Liberty
    (CNIL) is a cybersecurity regulatory body empowered to inspect corporate networks and enforce
    national data protection laws. In 2015, it conducted 550 inspections and fined at least one company
    EUR 50,000 for inadequate security measures (Raul et al., 2016). The United Kingdom, despite its
    anticipated exit from the EU, expects to implement the NIS Directive into its national law and,
    following public consultation in January 2018, confirmed that it would fine organizations up to
    GBP 17 million (EUR 20 million) for failing to cooperate with cybersecurity authorities, to report an
    incident or to implement appropriate security measures.
    59. Internationally, there have been several sustained multilateral efforts to counter Russia’s
    cyberattacks and information operations. In July 2014, the Alliance established the NATO Strategic
    Communications Centre of Excellence in Riga, Latvia, to research and identify information warfare.
    60. The Cyber Defence Policy and an accompanying action plan, approved by all members at the
    NATO Wales Summit in September 2014, reaffirmed the Alliance’s position that international law
    applied in cyber space and that Article 5 could be invoked in response to a cyberattack. The meeting
    also launched the NATO-Industry Cyber Partnership to strengthen NATO’s relationship with the
    private sector and achieve specific cybersecurity objectives (Maldre, 2016). At the 2016 NATO
    Summit in Warsaw, cyber space was recognized as a domain of operations for NATO. Cybersecurity
    and defense played a significant role at the 2018 Brussels Summit as well. Among other actions,
    Allies agreed on a way to integrate sovereign cyber effects into Alliance operations and missions
    and decided to establish a Cyberspace Operations Centre in Belgium to provide situational
    awareness and coordinate NATO operational activity. Your Rapporteur welcomes these next steps
    in NATO’s cyber defense policies. However, your Rapporteur argues that NATO must become
    quicker in analyzing cyber threats and better in responding in a coordinated, multidisciplinary way if
    it becomes necessary. Your Rapporteur also encourages further efforts, as parliamentarians in your
    respective member states, to ensure individual plans of action, lines of authority, and lines of
    coordination at the national, regional and local levels.
    61. Enhanced coordination on cybersecurity and defense was identified as one of seven urgent
    needs for NATO-EU cooperation. The July 2018 Joint Declaration on EU-NATO Cooperation noted
    the intensifying work between the two organizations on hybrid threats, including cyberattacks. The
    fact that NATO and the EU are both participants in the Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid
    Threats in Helsinki, Finland is a boon in this regard. If circumstances permit, the EU could also be
    invited to join the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence in Tallinn, Estonia.
    Moreover, the Digital and Social Media Playbook created by the NATO Science and Technology
    Organization provides a continually-updated assessment tool to help officials understand the goals
    and methods of cyber adversaries (NATO PA, 2017).
    C. SOCIAL AND MASS MEDIA
    62. While more robust cybersecurity measures can reduce risk, they cannot eliminate it entirely.
    Technical and human errors are certain to create vulnerabilities for even the most diligent
    organizations (Inglis, 2017). Furthermore, while access to private information can aid a
    disinformation campaign, it is not necessary to wage it. Misleading or fabricated stories can thrive
    even in the absence of hacks and leaks through social and mass media.
    181 STC 18 E fin
    13
    63. There are primarily two responses to misinformation on social media: one that emphasizes the
    responsibilities of technology and media companies and the other emphasizing the
    responsibilities of governments. Regarding the first approach, legislators and journalists have
    increased scrutiny of how media companies operate, especially in the wake of the Cambridge
    Analytica scandal. Following one briefing, US Senator Mark Warner described the efforts of one
    social media company as “show[ing] an enormous lack of understanding […] of how serious this
    issue is, the threat it poses to democratic institutions, and [begging] many more questions than they
    offered” (Fandos and Shane, 2017). British parliamentarians have similarly described corporate
    efforts to probe the issue as the “bare minimum” (Shaban, 2018). Third-party experts, meanwhile,
    have reported aggressive efforts by Facebook and Twitter to scrub data related to Russian
    interference from their platforms, preventing independent assessments (Timberg and Dwoskin,
    2017). Even within the companies, business officials “acknowledge now that they missed what
    should have been obvious signs of people misusing the platform” (Thompson and Vogelstein, 2018).
    64. In response to concerted public criticism, these companies have made some changes to
    address the misuse of their sites by malicious actors. In April 2017, Facebook published “Information
    Operations and Facebook” that outlined how a foreign adversary might exploit the platform to
    manipulate public opinion. In the same month, it suspended 30,000 fake accounts that had been
    created to influence the 2017 French presidential election (Weedon et al., 2017). In November 2017,
    Google announced it would “de-rank” RT and Sputnik—a process wherein a site is de-emphasized
    in search results—for their role in spreading disinformation (BBC News, 2017). Twitter identified and
    suspended 3,814 accounts linked to Russia’s interference operation. These accounts, in total, had
    approximately 2.7 million followers. The platform also announced that it would counteract highly
    automated bot accounts through a number of detection tools based on public and non-public account
    data and activity characteristics (Edgett, 2018). Other websites and apps have received far less
    scrutiny. However, there is evidence of Russian disinformation campaigns on, for example, Reddit,
    a social media and news aggregation website, or Instagram, a photo-sharing mobile app (DiResta,
    2018). This issue should be followed up vigorously. Companies should continue to harness the
    promise of emerging technologies by refining their approach to disinformation, using artificial
    intelligence and big data analytics in particular.
    65. Other efforts have focused on fact-checking and informing users of false content. In November
    2017, Facebook announced a new portal that allowed users to determine if they liked or followed
    any accounts linked to Russian propaganda (Yurieff, 2017). In January 2018, the company
    announced changes to its news feed algorithm and, in October 2017, it announced plans to hire
    more ad reviewers (Vogelstein, 2018). Prior to the 2017 German parliamentary elections, Facebook
    began labelling false stories and alerting users to hoaxes (Stelter, 2017). A similar but more vigorous
    effort took place before Italy’s 2018 parliamentary elections, wherein Facebook partnered with
    fact-checking organizations to alert users who shared false information about the fact-checker’s
    findings (Serhan, 2018). A number of independent fact-checking groups have also sprung up from
    civil society, including StopFake, the Atlantic Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab, the German
    Marshall Fund of the United States, Hamilton 68 or the Baltic “elves” (Fried and Polyakova, 2018).
    66. Traditional media companies, meanwhile, have taken steps to educate the public on possible
    misinformation. In France, eight news organizations, including Agence France-Press, L’Express and
    Le Monde, joined forces with Facebook and Google to identify false stories circulating on social
    media (Barzic et al., 2017). Le Monde, meanwhile, established its own fact-checking site, Les
    Décodeurs, to help users determine the trustworthiness of a specific website (Albeanu, 2017). These
    new ventures build upon past and current fact-checking efforts, which have been a staple of Western
    newsrooms since the beginning of the 21st
    century. Per one estimate, there are at least 34 permanent
    fact-checking groups active across 20 different European countries (Graves and Cherubini, 2016).
    Meanwhile, journalists report that newsrooms are having conversations “about [their] paper’s
    standards for using material of questionable sourcing” and the potential motives behind a source
    (Peters, 2017).
    181 STC 18 E fin
    14
    67. Some lawmakers have found these efforts are necessary but not sufficient. Efforts have also
    increased to regulate social media activity or make companies liable for illegal content in other ways.
    In the United States, a bipartisan group of lawmakers proposed legislation to ban foreign-paid social
    media political advertizing and make political advertizing on social media more transparent overall
    by putting it under the same regulatory regime as broadcast TV and radio (Kelly and Warner, 2017).
    Officials across NATO member states have also shown increasing interest in holding social media
    companies liable for failing to counteract illegal activity facilitated through their platform
    (Rozenshtein, 2017). The German Parliament approved a new law that requires social media
    platforms to take down “obviously illegal” material within 24 hours of being notified and makes them
    liable for up to EUR 50 million in fines if they fail to do so. French President Emmanuel Macron has
    expressed a strong interest in giving media regulators extra powers to “fight any destabilization
    attempt by any television channels controlled or influenced by foreign states” and regulating untruths
    on social media (BBC News, 2018). This led to the bill on information manipulation in pre-election
    periods (see above). The EU also runs Europol’s Internet Referral Unit which, per a July 2016 report,
    assessed and referred for removal over 11,000 messages related to terrorist content.
    Ninety-one percent of this content was removed (Europol, 2016). Though the group puts its focus
    on extremist content, its activities could serve as a model for other efforts.
    68. The second approach to misinformation puts the onus on governments by emphasizing their
    responsibility to keep the public informed. Russian meddling exacerbates existing fissures in society,
    but it does not create them. A misinformation campaign cannot take root if no domestic audience is
    willing to accept the divisive and conspiratorial messages that Russian actors amplify. Thus, this
    approach emphasizes the responsibility of democracies to establish sources of authority and ensure
    that debates across the political spectrum operate using the same set of shared facts.
    69. Many of these efforts focus on government task forces that target disinformation. The EU, for
    example, operates the East Stratcom Task Force, a team of diplomats tasked with exposing Russia’s
    online information through its website, EU vs Disinfo, and a network of over 400 experts, journalists,
    and think tanks. The European Commission also published a Communication on Fake News and
    Online Misinformation, for release in 2018, setting out the challenges and outlining key principles
    and objectives that should guide actions and specific measures the Commission seeks to take
    (European Commission, 2018). In support of its work on the document, an EU high-level group
    published a detailed report, formulating a number of recommendations for a multidimensional
    approach to online disinformation (High-Level Group on Fake News and Online Disinformation,
    2018). The Czech Republic opened its Centre Against Terrorism and Hybrid Threats to counter
    disinformation, hoaxes, foreign propaganda, and extremist messaging within its borders (Colborne,
    2017). In December 2016, the US Congress expanded the mission of the State Department’s Global
    Engagement Center, originally envisaged to counter terrorist propaganda, to include countering
    state-sponsored propaganda and disinformation. However, despite lawmakers reallocating USD 120
    million from the Department of Defense’s budget, it appears the Center has yet to access or spend
    any money. In January 2018, the British government announced plans to create a new national
    security unit tasked with “combatting disinformation by state actors and others”, but it remains
    unclear how this unit will operate and what its mandate will be (Walker, 2018). The German Interior
    Ministry similarly proposed the creation of a Center of Defense against Disinformation to identify
    misinformation and educate the public on its dangers (Deutsche Welle, 2016). In the run-up to the
    2018 parliamentary elections, the Italian government had an online portal that allowed people to
    report false content online (Serhan, 2018). On a smaller scale, parliaments themselves can play a
    role in countering misinformation by holding hearings and releasing reports that reveal false
    narratives and the actors behind them.
    70. As two experts from the Atlantic Council underline, “[w]inning the information war will require
    a whole-of-society approach” (Fried and Polyakova, 2018). Other efforts thus focus on civil society
    and the promotion of civic education and media literacy. In Italy, for example, the Ministry of
    Education unveiled a new curriculum with courses intended to teach Italian students how to identify
    false news stories and understand how social networks can be manipulated (Horowitz, 2017). In the
    181 STC 18 E fin
    15
    United States, several schools have adopted programs to help students understand how false
    narratives are created and how to identify them (Rosenwald, 2017). Since 2015, all French primary
    and secondary schools teach a course on moral and civic education. While primarily motivated by
    concerns over countering violent extremism, the course could serve as a useful forum to discuss
    misinformation campaigns. Similar programs exist in other Allied states. Though it is not yet clear
    how these programs will affect current public debates, several recent studies suggest that they help
    citizens better engage in the political process (Figueroa, 2017).
    71. A related approach focuses on strengthening research on cyber and information operations
    and developing technological tools to deal with them. One EU high-level group, for example,
    proposes “a network of independent European Centres for (academic) research on disinformation”
    and urges the European Commission to consider an independent Centre of Excellence (High-Level
    Group on Fake News and Online Disinformation, 2018). A RAND Corporation scholar has also
    promoted the idea of a multidisciplinary Center for Cognitive Security (Waltzman, 2017).
    D. OTHER APPROACHES
    72. Russia uses information warfare because it appears to cause significant disruption at a low
    cost. As such, democracies could choose to discourage influence operations by imposing real
    consequences. For one, democracies should pursue actions through their court systems in cases of
    election interference, as the US Department of Justice has done in its February and July 2018
    indictments of several Russian citizens and companies. Another potentially important instrument is
    sanctions. All NATO members instituted sanctions against the Russian Federation in the wake of
    the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. These sanctions must remain in place until conditions
    change. However, only one NATO member has implemented sanctions in response to election
    meddling. In the summer of 2017, the US Congress, in a near-unanimous, bipartisan vote, tasked
    the White House with imposing additional sanctions on Russia, in part because of its interference in
    the 2016 elections. In March 2018, after a substantial delay, the White House enacted part of these
    statutorily mandated sanctions. The US administration targeted five entities and 19 individuals,
    including the Internet Research Agency and individuals identified by the ongoing special counsel
    investigation as participants in Russia’s election meddling campaign. Your Rapporteur welcomes
    these first steps and acknowledges increased enactment of sanctions in recent months but notes
    that they fall short of the full range of sanctions authorized by Congress. Moreover, your Rapporteur
    would strongly argue that further sanctions should be discussed at the national and collective levels
    in response to additional evidence of Russian meddling in democratic processes.
    73. Democracies can and should project national and multinational unity when faced with influence
    operations. Russian interference exploits and tries to exacerbate polarization within a society.
    Successful interference relies on political actors taking advantage of misinformation for short-term
    gain, for example by exploiting leaks for political gain. To prevent any future incidence, interference
    must thus be rebutted firmly and swiftly in a spirit of unity. Political leaders must be able to admit that
    Russian interference is demonstrably taking place when necessary. Political rivals must work
    together to condemn it with one voice via clear messages and actionable policies. By developing
    norms and procedures that discourage exploitation of misinformation, political systems can improve
    their resilience and deter future information warfare. The will of the people expressed through their
    votes in elections and referenda must be protected forcefully.
    181 STC 18 E fin
    16
    IV. CONCLUSIONS
    74. In February 2018, US National Security Agency Director Dan Coats testified before lawmakers
    in the US Senate Intelligence Committee. As part of his assessment of the worldwide threats facing
    the United States and its allies, Mr Coats reported that: “We expect Russia to continue using
    propaganda, social media, false-flag personas, sympathetic spokespeople and other means of
    influence to try to exacerbate social and political fissures in the United States […] There should be
    no doubt that Russia perceives its past efforts as successful and views the 2018 US midterms as a
    potential target for Russian influence operations” (Senate Select Intelligence Committee, 2018).
    75. As Mr Coats’ testimony indicates and this report shows, the problem of Russian election
    interference is not going away. If anything, recent events suggest that it will be a more significant
    part of Russia’s toolkit than ever before. With a budget amounting to a few million US dollars,
    Russian forces can sow distrust and mayhem, build support for friendly politicians, and undermine
    enemies. While some steps have been taken to counter Russian meddling by means of cyber and
    information operations, Russia itself has faced few consequences for its interference. Many alleged
    targets of Russia’s activities remain mired in internal debates that undermine any collective
    response.
    76. To prevent further erosion of liberal democratic principles, NATO member states will need to
    take concerted efforts to strengthen their electoral processes. This need will become increasingly
    pressing, as evidence mounts that other countries, including China and Iran, have employed tactics
    similar to Russia’s. Some of those efforts are detailed in previous sections, but member states will
    need to examine the pressures and circumstances affecting their country and develop a response
    accordingly. Russia adapts its operations to its targets and, thus, responses will need to be adapted
    as well. Your Rapporteur must underline, however, that individual and collective responses must be
    rooted in our common values, including individual liberty, human rights, democracy and the rule of
    law. These values can be exploited by an adversary, but they can also be our greatest asymmetric
    advantage. If we do not uphold these values, we undermine the democratic processes that we wish
    to safeguard and lose any advantage they provide.
    77. As policymakers and agenda-setters, legislators play a particularly large role in this process.
    Consequently, lawmakers will need to foster dialog within their countries about how to rebut and
    respond to allegations of interference. They will need to work with their colleagues in other parties
    to ensure that credible allegations are believed by their constituents and civil society at large. They
    will need to ensure that allegations are investigated in a fair and impartial manner. While your
    Rapporteur recognizes the difficulty of these tasks, she hopes that this report can inform discussions
    and help member states recognize the threat posed by these operations. Indeed, your Rapporteur
    appreciates the input on the first draft of the report during the Spring Session from members of the
    Committee – and from associate members who have often suffered from Russia’s cyber and
    information operations. In particular, your Rapporteur welcomed input on the lessons they and their
    governments have drawn from cases where their countries were subjected to information warfare –
    what worked well and what did not. The input was invaluable in preparing the concrete policy
    recommendations in this final report as well as in the proposed resolution for the NATO Secretary
    General and Allied governments and parliaments.
    79. As the STC’s work over the last few years clearly shows, threats in the cyber and information
    space are becoming absolutely critical. Before the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, the
    United States suffered from a failure of imagination. The Alliance – whether individually or collectively
    – must not suffer such a failure again. However, as Mr Coats has recently argued, “here we are
    nearly two decades later, and I'm here to say the warning lights are blinking red again” (Coats, 2018).
    The Committee and the NATO Parliamentary Assembly cannot relent and must continue to keep a
    sharp eye on cyber and information threats. Your Rapporteur stands ready to support this work in
    any way possible.
    181 STC 18 E fin
    17
    BIBLIOGRAPHY
    Alandete, David, “How the Russian Meddling Machine Won the Online Battle of the Illegal
    Referendum”, El Pais, 13 November 2017a,
    Alandete, David, “Russian Meddling Machine Sets Sights on Catalonia”, El Pais, 28 September
    2017b
    Alandete, David, “Russian Network Used Venezuelan Accounts to Deepen Catalan crisis”, El Pais,
    11 November 2017c
    Albeanu, Catalina, “3 Fact-Checking Initiatives at Le Monde as the Newsroom Gears Up for the
    French Election”, Journalism.co.uk, 28 March 2017
    Applebaum, Anne; Pomerantsev, Peter; Smith, Melanie; and Colliver, Chloe, “‘Make Germany Great
    Again’: Kremlin, Alt-Right, and International Influences in the 2017 German Elections”, London
    School of Economics, 2017
    Associated Press, “The Latest: France Says No Trace of Russian Hacking Macron”, Associated
    Press, 1 June 2017
    Barker, Tyson, “Germany Strengthens Its Cyber Defense”, Foreign Affairs, 26 May 2017
    Barzic, Gwenaelle; Kar-Gupta, Sudip; Heavens, Andrew; and Lough, Richard, “Facebook, Google
    Join Drive Against Fake News in France”, Reuters, 6 February 2017
    BBC News, “Emmanuel Macron: French President Announces 'Fake News' Law”, BBC News,
    3 January 2018
    BBC News, “Theresa May Accuses Vladimir Putin of Election Meddling”, BBC News, 14 November
    2017
    Beardsley, Eleanor, “France Warns Russia to Stay Out Of Its Presidential Election”, National Public
    Radio, 21 February 2017
    Beaulieu, Britanny and Keil, Steven, Russia as Spoiler: Projecting Division in Transatlantic
    Societies, Alliance for Securing Democracy, German Marshall Fund of the United States, 2018
    Beuth, Patrick; Biermann, Kai; Klingst, Martin; and Stark, Holger, “Merkel and the Fancy Bear”, Zeit
    Online, 12 May 2017
    Booth, Robert; Weaver, Matthew; Hern, Alex; and Walker, Shaun, “Russia Used Hundreds Of Fake
    Accounts to Tweet about Brexit, Data Shows”, The Guardian, 14 November 2017
    Borchers, Callum, “What We Know about the 21 States Targeted by Russian Hackers”, Washington
    Post, 23 September 2017
    Brattberg, Erik and Maurer, Tim, Russian Election Interference: Europe’s Counter to Fake News and
    Cyber Attacks, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2018
    Burr, Warner et al., Senate Intel Committee Releases Unclassified 1st Installment in Russia Report,
    Updated Recommendations on Election Security, Senate Intelligence Committee, 2018
    Cadwalladr, Carole and Jukes, Peter, “Leave.EU Faces New Questions over Contacts with Russia”,
    The Guardian, 16 June 2018
    Challenges, "Cyberattaques contre l'équipe Macron: le point sur la situation”, 5 October 2017
    Chan, Sewell, “Fearful of Hacking, Dutch Will Count Ballots by Hands”, The New York Times, 1
    February 2017
    Chrisafis, Angelique, “Emmanuel Macron Promises Ban on Fake News During Elections”, The
    Guardian, 3 January 2018
    City Press Office, “13,500-Strong Twitter Bot Army Disappeared Shortly after EU Referendum,
    research reveals”, City, University of London, 20 October 2017
    Coats, Dan, Transcript: Dan Coats Warns the Lights Are 'Blinking Red' On Russian Cyberattacks,
    NPR, 18 July 2018
    Cole, Harry “Dressing Down: Web Firms Facebook and Google ‘Should Be Legally to Blame for Fake
    News’, MPs Warn”, 28 July 2018
    Colborne, Michael, “The Brief Life, and Looming Death, of Europe’s ‘SWAT Team for Truth’”, Foreign
    Policy, 20 September 2017
    Corera, Gordon, “Russia 'Will Target US Mid-Term Elections' Says CIA Chief”, BBC News,
    29 January 2018
    Cybersecurity and Digital Privacy Unit, The Directive on Security of Network and Information
    Systems (NIS Directive), European Commission, 19 September 2017
    181 STC 18 E fin
    18
    Dearden, Lizzie, “Emmanuel Macron Email Leaks 'Linked to Russian-Backed Hackers Who Attacked
    Democratic National Committee'”, The Independent, 6 May 2017
    De La Garza, Alejandro, “Here's What Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein Said About Indicting
    Russian Intelligence Officers for Election Hacking”, Time, 13 July 2018
    Department of Justice, United States of America v. Internet Research Agency…, 16 February 2018
    Deutsche Welle, “Germany Plans Creation of 'Center Of Defense' Against Fake News, Report Says”,
    Deutsche Welle, 23 December 2016
    Diamond, Larry, “Russia and the Threat to Liberal Democracy”, The Atlantic, 9 December 2016
    DiResta, Renee, Statement for the Record from Renee DiResta, US Senate Select Committee on
    Intelligence, 2018
    Dwoskin, Elizabeth and Timberg, Craig, “Microsoft Says It Has Found a Russian Operation Targeting
    U.S. Political Institutions”, The Washington Post, 21 August 2018
    Edgett, Sean, Sean Edgett’s Answers to Questions for the Record, Senate Committee on the
    Judiciary, Subcommittee on Crime and Terrorism, 19 January 2018
    Emmott, Robin, “Spain Sees Russian Interference in Catalonia Separatist Vote”, Reuters,
    13 November 2017
    European Commission, Communication on Fake News and Online, European Commission
    Communication, 2018
    Europol, Europol Internet Referral Unit One Year On, Europol, 22 July 2016
    Fandos, Nicholas and Shane, Scott, “Senator Berates Twitter Over ‘Inadequate’ Inquiry Into Russian
    Meddling”, New York Times, 28 September 2017
    Figueroa, Ariana, “Can Teaching Civics Save Democracy?”, National Public Radio, 22 September
    2017
    Fly, Jamie, Rosenberger, Laura and Salvo, David, Policy Blueprint for Countering Authoritarian in
    Democracies, Alliance for Securing Democracy, German Marshall Fund of the United States,
    2018
    Foster, Peter, “Russia Accused of Clandestine Funding of European Parties as US Conducts Major
    Review of Vladimir Putin's Strategy”, The Telegraph, 16 January 2016
    Fox, Robert A., Statement Prepared for the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence hearing:
    Disinformation: A Primer In Russian Active Measures And Influence Campaigns’, United States
    Senate Committee on Intelligence, 30 March 2017
    Fried, Daniel and Polyakova, Alina, Democratic Defense against Disinformation, Atlantic Council,
    2018
    Gramer, Robbie, “Wary of Russian Cyber Threat, France Plans to Bolster its Army of ‘Digital
    Soldiers’”, Foreign Policy, 10 January 2017,
    Graves, Lucas and Cherubini, Federica, The Rise of Fact-Checking Sites in Europe, Reuters Institute
    for the Study of Journalism, 2016
    Greenberg, Andy, “Hackers Hit Macron With Huge Email Leak Ahead of French Election”, Wired,
    5 May 2017a
    Greenberg, Andy, “The NSA Confirms It: Russia Hacked French Election ‘Infrastructure’”, Wired,
    9 May 2017b
    Hacquebord, Feike, Two Years of Pawn Storm, Trend Micro, 2017
    Harris, Gardiner, “State Dept. Was Granted $120 Million to Fight Russian Meddling. It Has Spent
    $0.”, The New York Times, 4 March 2018
    Hern, Alex; Duncan, Pamela; and Bengtsson, Helena, “Russian 'Troll Army' Tweets Cited More than
    80 Times in UK Media”, The Guardian, 20 November 2017
    High Level Group on Fake News and Online Disinformation, A Multi-Dimensional Approach to
    Disinformation, Report of the High Level Group on Fake News and Online Disinformation, 2018
    Horowitz, Jason, “In Italian Schools, Reading, Writing, and Recognizing Fake News”, New York
    Times, 18 October 2017
    Inglis, Chris, Statement of Chris Inglis before the Senate Armed Services Committee, US Senate,
    27 April 2017
    Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament, Press Release: 23 November 2017, Intelligence
    and Security Committee of Parliament, 23 November 2017
    181 STC 18 E fin
    19
    Karp, Brad S., Federal Guidance on the Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act of 2015, Harvard Law
    School Forum on Corporate Governance and Financial Regulation, 2016
    Kelly, John W., Briefing for the United States Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, US Senate
    Select Committee on Intelligence, 1 August 2018
    Kelly, Mary Louise and Warner, Mark, “What You Need To Know About The Honest Ads Act”,
    National Public Radio, 19 October 2017
    Lapowsky, Issie, “Iran Emerges as Latest Threat to Facebook and Twitter”, Wired, 21 August 2018
    Lecher, Colin, “Here Are the Russia-Linked Facebook Ads Released by Congress”, The Verge,
    1 November 2017
    Lipton, Eric; Sanger, David E.; and Shane, Scott, “The Perfect Weapon: How Russian Cyberpower
    Invaded the U.S.”, New York Times, 13 December 2016
    Luhn, Alec, “From Russia, with Love”, Vice News, 5 May 2017
    Maldre, Patrik, Moving Toward NATO Deterrence for the Cyber Deterrence for the Cyber Domain:
    Cyber Intelligence Brief No. 1, Center for European Policy Analysis, May 2016
    Maness, Ryan C. and Jaltner, Margarita, “There’s More to Russia’s Cyber Interference than the
    Mueller Probe Suggests”, The Washington Post, 12 March 2018
    McFadden, Cynthia; Arkin, William M.; Monahan, Kevin; and Dilanian, Ken, “U.S. Intel: Russia
    Compromised Seven States Prior to 2016 Election”, NBC News, 28 February 2018
    Meakins, Joss, “Why Russia is far less threatening than it seems”, Washington Post, 8 March 2017
    Meister, Stefan, “The ‘Lisa Case’: Germany as a Target Of Russian Disinformation”, NATO Review
    Magazine, 2016
    Milosevich-Juaristi, Mira, The Combination’: An Instrument in Russia’s Information War in Catalonia,
    Real Instituto Elcano, 20 November 2017
    Minority Staff of the Committee on Foreign Relations of the United States Senate, Putin’s
    Asymmetric Assault on Democracy In Russia And Europe: Implications For U.S. National
    Security, United States Senate, 2018
    National Conference of State Legislatures, Election Security: State Policies, National Conference of
    State Legislatures, 13 February 2018
    NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence, Cyber Security Strategy Documents,
    NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence, 2018
    NATO PA, “Countering Russia’s Hybrid Threats: An Update [166 CDS 18 E fin]”, report by
    Lord Jopling, November 2018
    NATO PA, “Hybrid Warfare: NATO’s New Strategic Challenge? [166 DSC 15 E BIS]”, presented by
    Julio Miranda Calha (Portugal), 10 October 2015
    NATO PA, “The Social Media Revolution: Political and Security Implications [158 CDSDG 17 E bis]”,
    presented by Jane Cordy (Canada), 7 October 2017
    Neudert, Lisa-Maria; Kollanyi, Bence; and Howard, Philip N., Junk News and Bots during the German
    Parliamentary Election: What are German Voters Sharing over Twitter?, Oxford University, 19
    September 2017
    Newman, Lily Hay, “Securing Elections Remain Surprisingly Controversial”, Wired, 13 July 2017
    Nimmo, Ben, #ElectionWatch: Russia and Referendums in Catalonia?, Atlantic Council, 2017
    Nimmo, Ben, Propaganda in a New Orbit: Information Warfare Initiative Paper No 2, Center for
    European Policy Analysis, 2016
    Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Background to ‘Assessing Russian Activities and
    Intentions in Recent US Elections’: The Analytic Process and Cyber Incident Attribution, 2017
    Oltermann, Philip, “German Government Intranet Under 'Ongoing Attack'”, The Guardian, 1 March
    2018
    Osnos, Evan; Remnick, David; and Yaffa, Joshua, “Trump, Putin, and the New Cold War”, The New
    Yorker, 6 March 2017
    Paul, Christopher and Matthews, Miriam, The Russian “Firehose of Falsehood” Propaganda Model:
    Why It Might Work and Options to Counter It, RAND Corporation, 2016
    Peters, Jonathan, Putin, Politics, and the Press, Columbia Journalism Review, 3 March 2017
    Posner, Bob, Responding to the Rise of Digital Campaigning, UK Electoral Commission blog,
    31 October 2017
    181 STC 18 E fin
    20
    Raul, Alan Charles; Smith, John; and Sulmeyer, Michael, Touring the World of Cybersecurity Law,
    RSA Conference 2016, 2016
    Reuters, “Russian Twitter Accounts Promoted Brexit ahead of EU Referendum: Times Newspaper”,
    15 November 2017
    Roberts, Liz Saville and Nokes, Caroline, Elections: Written question – 113484, Minister for the
    Cabinet Office, 2017
    Roose, Kevin, “Facebook Grapples With a Maturing Adversary in Election Meddling”, TheNew York
    Times, 1 August 2018
    Rosenwald, Michael, Making Media Literacy Great Again, Columbia Journalism Review, 2017
    Rozenshtein, Alan, “It’s the Beginning of the End of the Internet’s Legal Immunity”, Foreign Policy,
    13 November 2017
    Rutenberg, Jim, “RT, Sputnik and Russia’s New Theory of War”, New York Times, 13 September
    2017
    Salvo, David and Beaulieu, Brittany, NATO and Asymmetric Threats: A Blueprint for Defense and
    Deterrence, Alliance for Securing Democracy, German Marshall Fund of the United States,
    2018
    Satter, Raphael; Donn, Jeff; and Day, Chad, “Inside Story: How Russians Hacked the Democrats'
    Emails”, U.S. News and World Report, 4 November 2017
    Seetharaman, Deepa, “Russian-Backed Facebook Accounts Staged Events Around Divisive
    Issues”, Wall Street Journal, 30 October 2017
    Senate Select Intelligence Committee, “Global Threats and National Security”, C-SPAN,
    13 February 2018
    Senate Select Intelligence Committee, “Russia’s Role in Election-Year Hacking”, C-SPAN,
    10 January 2017
    Serhan, Yasmeen, “Italy Scrambles to Fight Misinformation Ahead of Its Elections”, The Atlantic, 24
    February 2018
    Shaban, Hamza, “Members of the U.K. Parliament Grill American Tech Giants over the Spread of
    Fake News”, Washington Post, 8 February 2018
    Solon, Olivia, “Facebook Removes 652 Fake Accounts and Pages Meant to Influence World
    Politics”, The Guardian, 22 August 2018
    Solon, Olivia and Siddiqui, Sabrina, “Russia-backed Facebook posts 'reached 126m Americans'
    during US election”, The Guardian, 31 October 2017
    Splidsboel Hansen, Flemming, The Weaponization of Information: News from the Cognitive Domain,
    DIIS, 14 December 2017
    Sputnik News, “Thousands Yell 'Death to US' Near Turkey's Incirlik Base, Home to US Nukes”,
    Sputnik News, 28 July 2016
    Stelter, Brian, “Facebook to begin warning users of fake news before German election”, CNN,
    15 January 2017
    Stewart, Emily, “Russian Election Interference is Far From Over. I Asked 9 Experts How to Stop It.”,
    Vox, 19 February 2018,
    Strobel, Warren and Walcott, John, “Top NSA official Says Telephone Surveillance Should Have
    Been Disclosed”, Reuters, 22 March 2017
    Thompson, Nicholas and Vogelstein, Fred, “Inside The Two Years That Shook Facebook—And The
    World”, Wired, 12 February 2018
    Timberg, Craig and Elizabeth Dwoskin, “Facebook Takes Down Data and Thousands Of Posts,
    Obscuring Reach OF Russian Disinformation”, Washington Post, 12 October 2017
    Toucas, Boris, The Macron Leaks: The Defeat of Informational Warfare, Center for Strategic &
    International Studies, 30 May 2017
    UK House of Commons Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee, Disinformation and ‘Fake
    News’: Interim Report, UK House of Commons Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee,
    29 July 2018
    Van de Velde, Jacqueline, The Law of Cyber Interference in Elections, SSRN, 2017
    Van Hollen and Rubio, Van Hollen, Rubio Statement on Election Security Executive Order, 12
    September 2018
    181 STC 18 E fin
    21
    Vogelstein, Fred, “Facebook Tweaks Newsfeed To Favor Content From Friends, Family”, Wired, 11
    January 2018
    Volz, Dustin, “U.S. Far-Right Activists, WikiLeaks and Bots Help Amplify Macron Leaks:
    researchers”, Reuters, 7 May 2017
    Volz, Dustin and Ingram, David, “Facebook: Russian Agents Created 129 U.S. Election Events”,
    Reuters, 25 January 2018
    Walker, Peter, “New National Security Unit Set Up to Tackle Fake News in UK”, The Guardian,
    23 January 2018
    Waltzman, Rand, The Weaponization of Information: The Need for Cognitive Security, RAND
    Corporation, 2017
    Watts, Clint, Cyber-Enabled Information Operations, Statement Prepared for the US Senate
    Committee on Armed Services, 2017
    Watts, Duncan J. and Rothschild, David M., Don’t Blame the Election on Fake News. Blame it on
    the Media, Columbia Journalism Review, 2017
    Weedon, Jen; Nuland, William; and Stamos, Alex, Information Operations and Facebook, Facebook,
    2017
    Weisburd, Andrew; Watts, Clint; and Berger, J.M., Trolling for Trump: How Russia is Trying to
    Destroy our Democracy, War on the Rocks, 6 November 2016
    Williams-Grut, Oscar, “REPORT: Russia hacked UK energy companies on election day”, Business
    Insider, 19 July 2017
    Witte, Griff, “As Germans Prepare to Vote, a Mystery Grows: Where are the Russians?”, Washington
    Post, 10 September 2017
    Young, Zachary, “French Parliament Passes Law Against ‘Fake News’,” Politico, 4 July 2018
    Yurieff, Kaya, “Facebook Will Show Users What Russian Propaganda They Liked or Followed”,
    CNN, 22 November 2017
    Zygar, Mikhail, “Why Putin Prefers Trump”, Politico, 27 July 2016
    __________________
    SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
    COMMITTEE (STC)
    Sub-Committee on
    Technology Trends and Security
    (STCTTS)
    DARK DEALINGS:
    HOW TERRORISTS USE
    ENCRYPTED MESSAGING,
    THE DARK WEB AND
    CRYPTOCURRENCIES
    Report
    by Matej TONIN (Slovenia)
    Rapporteur
    182 STCTTS18 E fin | Original: English | 18 November 2018
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 1
    II. CRYPTOGRAPHIC TECHNOLOGIES: A PRIMER......................................................... 2
    A. MODERN CRYPTOGRAPHY................................................................................ 2
    B. ENCRYPTED MESSAGING SERVICES ............................................................... 2
    C. THE DARK WEB ................................................................................................... 3
    D. CRYPTOCURRENCIES ........................................................................................ 5
    III. HOW TERRORISTS USE CRYPTOGRAPHIC TECHNOLOGIES.................................. 7
    A. COMMUNICATIONS, COMMAND AND CONTROL .............................................. 7
    B. ACQUISITION OF WEAPONS AND OTHER ILLICIT GOODS.............................. 8
    C. TERRORIST FINANCING ..................................................................................... 9
    IV. CURRENT POLICIES AND FUTURE OPTIONS .......................................................... 10
    A. MONITORING, REPORTING AND DISRUPTION BY ACTIVISTS,
    CITIZENS AND OPERATORS............................................................................. 10
    B. LAW ENFORCEMENT AND INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS ............................. 11
    C. NEW LAWS AND REGULATIONS ...................................................................... 12
    D. WEAKENING OR TARGETING ENCRYPTION................................................... 13
    V. CONCLUSION.............................................................................................................. 13
    SELECT BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................ 15
    182 STCTTS 18 E fin
    1
    I. INTRODUCTION
    1. The wish to privately communicate has probably been with humankind forever. The first case
    of encryption – the use of a private code to encipher and decipher messages – can be traced back
    to ancient Egypt almost 4,000 years ago (Cypher Research Laboratories, 2014). Until the end of the
    20th
    century, the most powerful encryption technologies were largely in the hands of governments.
    Today, such encryption technology is widely available, offering several key advantages to users,
    including:
    - Authentication: Users can be assured that other users are who they claim to be and not
    somebody impersonating them.
    - Integrity: Users can be assured that the data they receive from other users has not been
    altered (intentionally or unintentionally) between “there” and “here” or between “then” and
    “now.”
    - Confidentiality: Users can be assured that data they receive from other users cannot be read
    by third parties.
    - Anonymity: Depending on the encryption and other methods employed, users can put
    distance between their real identities and their digital pseudonyms, granting them various
    degrees of anonymity.
    2. Modern encryption technology has “become a bedrock of the modern internet” (Moore and
    Rid, 2016). Indeed, encryption by default is “becoming the new normal in personal cyber security”
    (Buchanan, 2016). After all, who would trust online banking or e-government services if we were not
    reasonably assured that our data is secured by strong encryption? In liberal democracies, private
    communications also fulfil a vital and legitimate role in support of fundamental human rights, such
    as privacy and freedom of speech (Chertoff and Simon, 2014). Indeed, modern encryption
    technology “is a crucial ingredient for any free political order in the twenty-first century” (Moore and
    Rid, 2016). In authoritarian countries, the ability to communicate anonymously can be a matter of life
    and death for activists, dissidents and journalists.
    3. Like any other technology, modern encryption can have a dark side. Inevitably, its advantages
    hold much attraction for malicious actors, including extremists and terrorists. Such groups are
    typically organised in a decentralised manner, where individual members have little to no information
    about other cells or top officials. Even Daesh, which adopted a more hierarchical and territorial
    organisation in Iraq and Syria, has increased its decentralisation in step with the loss of territory. In
    today’s world, such a fluid organising style would be near impossible to maintain if terrorists did not
    have access to encrypted messaging services for propaganda, recruitment, communications,
    command and control, financing and illicit acquisitions. Modern encryption technology has also
    enabled the rise of two other cryptographic technologies with the potential to further enable extremist
    and terrorist operations: the dark web, composed of intentionally hidden servers on the World Wide
    Web, and cryptocurrencies, virtual currencies secured through the use of cryptography.
    4. This report informs and supports the Science and Technology Committee’s (STC) continuing
    focus on potentially disruptive technologies with important implications for defence and security
    policies. The report was adopted in November 2018 at the NATO PA Annual Session in Halifax,
    Canada.
    5. First, the report examines the basics of modern encryption, encrypted messaging services, the
    dark web and cryptocurrencies. Second, it analyses how extremists and terrorists use these
    instruments for communications, command and control, financing and illicit acquisitions. Third, it
    maps some of the most important policy debates surrounding these technologies. Finally, the
    Rapporteur proposes some recommendations on the way forward.
    182 STCTTS 18 E fin
    2
    II. CRYPTOGRAPHIC TECHNOLOGIES: A PRIMER
    A. MODERN CRYPTOGRAPHY
    6. Until the 1970s, the only way to encipher and decipher electronic messages was
    symmetric-key cryptography, where sender and recipient must have the same key to unlock the
    message. If someone gains access to the key or cracks the code, communications are no longer
    secure. During the Cold War, as the complexity of warfare increased dramatically, so did the
    complexity of ensuring the secure distribution of encryption keys. In the late 1960s, an employee of
    the British Government Communications Headquarters was the first to propose a new encryption
    method to solve the problem of key distribution. However, the real turning point came when
    researchers at Stanford University had the same idea and published their results openly in 1976,
    enabling researchers around the world to take their ideas further. This was the birth of asymmetric
    public-key encryption – “one of the most pivotal inventions of the twentieth century” (Moore and Rid,
    2016).
    7. The mathematics behind asymmetric public-key encryption is intricate, but the idea is
    simple. Those who wish to communicate in private are given a private key and a public key, which
    are mathematically linked. Crucially, the public key is visible to anyone. If Alice wants to send a
    private message to Bob, she will use Bob’s public key to encrypt the message. As Bob alone has
    access to the private key, only he can open the message. Not even Alice can read her message
    anymore. The crucial advantage is that Alice and Bob no longer need to meet to exchange keys or
    rely on a middleman for distribution.
    8. For two decades, the US government and its allies attempted to keep strong public-key
    encryption out of the hands of the US public and its adversaries, classifying it as
    ‘munition’ in 1976 and imposing strict export laws (Bartlett, 2014). Nonetheless, as the basics were
    publicly known and the available computing power outside government control rose dramatically,
    public-key encryption began to spread – both to private citizens and states outside the West. Despite
    efforts by the US government, strong public-key encryption could no longer be kept under control,
    as privacy-minded individuals and libertarian “cypherpunks” employed the technology and
    advocated its use. In 1996, public-key encryption was then moved to the commerce control list,
    marking the end of what has become known as the Crypto Wars. Today, public-key encryption is
    found everywhere, and it is hard to imagine where the internet would be without it. Most internet
    users employ a degree of encryption by default and often unwittingly when they browse secure web
    sites or send private online messages or emails for example. However, those who seek stronger
    privacy protections – whether for benign or nefarious purposes – do not have to look very far. On
    the internet, an endless trove of information exists on how to shield oneself from those who would
    like to access one’s data – no matter whether it is governments, criminals or terrorists. In other words,
    it is easy for those who want to decrease their online footprint to do so, as the requirements for digital
    literacy and technical skills are low.
    B. ENCRYPTED MESSAGING SERVICES
    9. Popular social media platforms, like Facebook and Twitter, are increasingly – if not sufficiently
    for some – cracking down on extremist and terrorist material. As a result, encrypted instant
    messaging services have become central for communications, command and control, acquisition
    and financing.
    10. With roughly 1.5 billion users, WhatsApp is the most widely used messaging app in the world
    (Statista, 2018). Since April 2016, it has offered public-key encryption by default, calling it end-to-end
    encryption. Moreover, WhatsApp works with perfect forward secrecy, which means that users’
    private and public keys change automatically and frequently (Greenberg, 2016). Perfect forward
    secrecy largely solves the problem of intruders secretly stealing private keys and thus compromising
    future communications. Even if an intruder manages to steal a key, he will only have exposed a small
    182 STCTTS 18 E fin
    3
    amount of data. WhatsApp is still widely used by extremists and terrorists, due to its general
    popularity, high encryption standards and the possibility of bypassing phone verification by using
    virtual or temporary phone numbers (Stalinsky and Sosnow, 12 September 2017). However,
    WhatsApp has begun to fall out of favour (Stalinsky and Sosnow, 3 January 2017). For one,
    WhatsApp usually cooperates with law enforcement. Moreover, extremists have begun to suspect
    that entry points for law enforcement and intelligence agencies exist in its encryption protocols.
    11. As a result, the Telegram app has rapidly gained popularity with extremists and terrorists. The
    app was launched in 2013 by Nikolai and Pavel Durov, co-founders of the VKontakte social
    networking site in Russia. In 2014, the two libertarian-minded brothers refused to grant the Russian
    government access to certain Ukrainian and Russian accounts on VKontakte. Today, they live in
    self-imposed exile and no longer control VKontakte. End-to-end encryption is easily enabled on
    Telegram. In particular, Telegram’s “secret chat” mode is considered to have military-grade
    encryption protocols (Stalinsky and Sosnow, 3 January 2017). These chats do not leave any trace
    on Telegram’s servers, and messages can be set to ‘self-destruct’ and cannot be forwarded to other
    users. Moreover, it is easier to use a fake phone number on Telegram than on other platforms.
    Analysts also argue that the company’s reporting of suspect channels is limited, and extremist and
    terrorist channels are rarely suspended (Stalinsky and Sosnow, 3 January 2017). Telegram disputes
    this.
    12. Other highly encrypted instant messaging services exist, of course. Multiplayer online
    computer games and many other apps, software or devices have built-in instant messaging services.
    However, they have (not yet) gained as much popularity with terrorists as WhatsApp and Telegram
    (Stalinsky and Sosnow, 3 January 2017). The open-source Signal app, for example, provides
    first-rate encryption technology and has recently soared in popularity. Its cryptographic protocol is
    also the basis of other closed-source apps, notably WhatsApp, and of the encrypted modes of
    Facebook’s Messenger and Google’s Allo. It stores no metadata except the last day a user was
    connected (Lee, 2017). An advantage is that its open-source nature means that it can easily be
    duplicated, modified and used as a custom, closed-group communication tool, utilising private
    servers for data exchange. However, Signal is much less user-friendly than Telegram or WhatsApp.
    Also, large files cannot be sent, and audio quality can be spotty. Blockchain-enabled messaging
    services exist as well, including Nynja which also offers an integrated marketplace and its own
    cryptocurrency (a feature that Telegram is also considering launching). Other popular highly secure
    apps include Kik, SureSpot, WeChat and Wickr.
    13. Daesh has also created its own encrypted app called Alrawi. Designed for Daesh members,
    it is only accessible through the dark web. This makes it very difficult to shut down, but also less
    accessible. It has been suggested that it is not as secure as other encrypted apps. Some experts
    believe it was created in reaction to crackdowns on other apps and is used for planning more serious
    attacks and sharing sensitive communication. Others have argued that Alrawi may be more of a
    public relations stunt (Niglia, Al Sabaileh and Hammad, 2017).
    14. Beyond instant messaging services, other options for encrypted communications exist. For
    example, the email service Protonmail has millions of legitimate users, but is also gaining in
    popularity among extremists and terrorists. The company does not store messages on its servers,
    holds no copies of encryption keys and offers the option of self-destructing messages. In 2017, it
    also launched a dark web service, a Virtual Private Network (VPN) service and the possibility of
    paying in Bitcoin (Stalinsky and Sosnow, 26 October 2017).
    C. THE DARK WEB
    15. Experts often describe the WWW as consisting of multiple layers (Microsoft, 2016). The first
    layer is called the surface web. It includes all websites that can be indexed through the automated
    crawler software of classic search engines. Like a fishing net dragged across the surface of the
    ocean, however crawler software only analyses and indexes a small portion of the internet however
    182 STCTTS 18 E fin
    4
    (Bergman, 2001). The websites which cannot be indexed by traditional crawler software constitute
    the second layer – the deep web. The reasons why they cannot be indexed vary. Some websites
    might be private and require login credentials. Others, by their very nature, cannot be indexed, such
    as websites with dynamic or unlinked content.
    16. The third layer of the internet is the dark web. The dark web consists of servers whose
    IP addresses are hidden, which makes it nearly impossible to track down the location of web sites
    that are hosted on them. While some of the websites hosted on the dark web are unindexed, the
    vast majority can be found through indexing lists (such as The Hidden Wiki), user forums or
    specialised search engines (for example Ichidan or Torch), even though these tools are often neither
    comprehensive nor stable. In other words, dark web sites are not hidden per se. Potential users do
    not need special skills or instructions beyond understanding the readily available information found
    online. However, the potential that they will make mistakes – and thus compromise the anonymity
    they seek – is large, which is good news for the trained law enforcement and intelligence agents.
    17. Dark web sites – often called hidden services – are designed to be untraceable and to enable
    the circumvention of content restrictions or surveillance (Moore and Rid, 2016). These features serve
    many legitimate and legal functions (Chertoff and Simon, 2014):
    - Journalists use the dark web to protect their sources or share files, for example through the
    Secure Drop service used by such prominent newspapers as The New York Times, The
    Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal.
    - Dissidents bypass censorship where access to the internet is curtailed, for example by
    accessing the dark web site of The New York Times.
    - Human rights activists employ it in authoritarian states, for example in Iran, which has recently
    begun a severe crackdown on dark web software.
    - Many surface websites, for example Facebook, have dark web mirrors.
    - Armed forces and intelligence services use it for communications, command and control and
    intelligence gathering.
    - Law enforcement polices it, uses it for sting operations and even maintains anonymous tip
    lines.
    18. It is currently impossible to gather exact data on the extent of the different layers of the WWW,
    in particular given the large growth and fluidity of deep and dark web sites and the partial or total
    anonymity of users. In 2016, Microsoft estimated that the surface web amounted to just 0.3% of all
    WWW pages (Microsoft, 2016). As for the dark web, in a 2014 report, researchers found an average
    of about 45,000 active sites during a six-month study (Owen and Savage, 2015). According to one
    expert interviewed for this report, this number has been substantially reduced in recent years, as
    groups like Anonymous take down servers hosting illegal content, in particular child pornography
    sites. The expert argues that a little less than 10,000 sites exist on the dark web based on the Tor
    software (see below), the most widely used software to access the dark web.
    19. While some recent projects offer access to dark web sites from the surface web, most users
    must employ special software. Tor (previously known as The Onion Router) is the most popular
    software; another popular one is the Invisible Internet Project (I2P). The technology behind Tor was
    originally developed by the US Naval Research Laboratory to protect US intelligence
    communications. Since then, it was released under a free license and further developed by private
    individuals and organisations. Given the former ties to US government agencies, some dark web
    users argue against using Tor, as they suspect ongoing intelligence gathering.
    20. Tor has two core functions. First, the software hides the Internet Protocol (IP) address and
    other identifiers of those who want to browse the WWW anonymously. Second, Tor enables users
    to access sites and hidden services on the dark web. It must be noted that the overwhelming majority
    of people use Tor simply as an anonymous browser for the surface web. Visits to hidden services
    182 STCTTS 18 E fin
    5
    only account for 3% to 6% of Tor traffic (Moore and Rid, 2016). On a technical level, Tor relies on a
    network of approximately 6,000 computers forming a global network of nodes (so-called relays and
    bridges) (Tor Metrics, 2018). The user’s signal is encrypted in multiple layers – hence the onion
    metaphor – and always passes through at least three nodes with IPs concealed from all other nodes.
    21. Tor (and other networks) do not ensure complete anonymity on their own but must be coupled
    with other techniques to do so. For example, users could employ ‘virtualised’ operating systems,
    which could be contained on a USB stick and thus easily discarded or destroyed to get rid of
    evidence. Nevertheless, methods exist to gain access to (some) of the information in decrypted form
    as well as to the originating IP of the users, for example by controlling a large number of nodes or
    by using server vulnerabilities that ‘leak’ their originating IP. As a result, some users (especially cyber
    criminals) have started migrating to other projects which better protect their anonymity, including
    peer-to-peer and blockchain-enabled projects.
    22. Needless to say, the dark web has also attracted malicious actors, including extremists and
    terrorists, as it is a near-perfect spot to anonymously conduct illegal activities. Indeed, some of the
    most prominent uses of the dark web are drug and other illegal markets, financial services,
    extremism, illegitimate pornography (in particular paedophilia), hacking services, gambling, murders
    for hire, hacktivism and human trafficking (Moore and Rid, 2016; Chertoff and Simon, 2014).
    D. CRYPTOCURRENCIES
    23. The US Department of the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN)
    defines virtual currencies as “a medium of exchange that operates like a currency in some
    environments but does not have all the attributes of real currency” (FinCEN, 2013). As FinCEN
    further notes, a “virtual currency does not have legal tender status in any jurisdiction”.
    Cryptocurrencies are a specific form of virtual currency, secured through the use of cryptography
    and originally invented to circumvent third parties such as banks.
    24. Attempts to create successful virtual currencies in order to cut out traditional financial
    institutions started, in earnest, in the 1990s (Goldman et al., 2017). Two prominent examples include
    e-gold and Liberty Reserve. On e-gold, created in 1996, users could buy virtual grams of ‘gold’ with
    real-world currencies to shield themselves from market swings. E-gold soon became a haven for
    criminal activities and had to shut down in 2009. In 2006, Liberty Reserve stepped in to offer an
    alternative to e-gold – mostly to criminal outfits. It was eventually shut down in 2013.
    25. The real turning point for virtual currencies came in 2008 when a person or people using the
    pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto released a paper on the principles of a peer-to-peer virtual currency
    which does not rely on trust between users or on centralised control like e-gold or Liberty Reserve.
    In 2009, Nakamoto’s Bitcoin was available for the first time and cryptocurrencies were born. Early
    adopters of Bitcoin often emphasised that the cryptocurrency could make government-controlled,
    centralised money obsolete by replacing it with an alternative that is distributed and decentralised
    (Marr, 2017). Unsurprisingly, criminals soon entered the market as well.
    26. The current Bitcoin and cryptocurrency ‘craze’ really took off in 2017. Today, over 1,600 other
    cryptocurrencies exist with just as many uses and specifics. Cryptocurrencies are causing a big stir
    in financial markets, with a total market capitalisation of over USD 266 billion as of mid-July 2018 -
    down by over 67% from its high point in January 2018, showcasing the volatility of the market
    (Coinmarketcap, n.d.). Bitcoin is still the most widely used cryptocurrency, with a market
    capitalisation of over USD 133 billion. This is more than twice the market capitalisation of the second
    biggest cryptocurrency Ethereum.
    182 STCTTS 18 E fin
    6
    27. In theory, cryptocurrencies possess many advantages that make them attractive to users,
    including:
    - Anonymity/Pseudonymity: Most cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, only provide so-called
    pseudonymity. The virtual identities used for transaction – i.e. users’ pseudonyms – do not
    need to be linked to a real identity but must remain consistent throughout transactions. Thus,
    if a link between a pseudonym and a real identity is made, the whole transaction history can
    be connected to this identity. This is one reason why newer cryptocurrencies which come
    closer to guaranteeing anonymity are gaining in popularity. For example, between mid-2016
    and mid-2018, Monero, a highly anonymous cryptocurrency, has shot up in value 90-fold and
    it is now becoming the normal payment method for criminals on the dark web.
    - Mobility: Transfers can be made to and from any computer enabled to send or receive the
    particular cryptocurrency.
    - No trust requirement: Sender and receiver do not need to trust each other. Network nodes
    verify identities, transactions and blockchains in every transaction.
    - Non-interference: Decentralised, peer-to-peer cryptocurrencies (like Bitcoin) do not need
    middlemen such as financial institutions, banks or governments. However, so-called
    exchanges are proliferating with cryptocurrencies’ rising popularity. Exchanges serve as the
    interface between real and virtual currencies and hold users’ virtual wallets.
    - Scalability: As transfers entail only small processing fees for the foreseeable future, users can
    transfer even small amounts efficiently. On a positive note, this has offered new tools for people
    in developing countries with no or very little access to the formal financial system.
    - Security: If private encryption keys are securely stored on personal devices or in the cloud,
    cryptocurrencies are very secure. However, if they are stolen, Bitcoins or other currencies are
    stolen as well.
    - Speed: Bitcoin transfers take about 10 minutes to be confirmed, but many other
    cryptocurrencies perform faster and even Bitcoin transactions can be sped up. While this is
    longer than online payments with credit cards, the advantage for the recipient is that the sender
    cannot take back the payment once it is confirmed.
    28. Bitcoin transactions work in the following way (other cryptocurrencies work similarly)
    (Driscoll, 2013). First, the sender creates a digital signature on the basis of a private key, authorising
    the unlocking and spending of funds. A mathematical algorithm ensures that no one can copy or
    forge the digital signature. The amount of Bitcoin is ‘sent’ to the corresponding public key which all
    nodes in the network can see. The nodes use the public key and the digital signature to verify that
    the sender owns the private key – without ever seeing it. Second, the network proceeds to verify the
    transaction input. The network knows that it is an authorised message, but how can it know that the
    funds are actually in possession of the sender? The sender therefore references earlier transactions
    of unspent inputs. The network checks every other Bitcoin transaction ever made to ensure that the
    inputs have not been spent. This is often called Bitcoin’s ‘public ledger’. Third, transactions need to
    pass through the entire network to be verified, which is time intensive. Consequently, the sender
    could try to trick the network by simultaneously assigning the same inputs to another transaction,
    i.e. to spend the Bitcoins twice. The network cannot verify which transaction came first. Therefore, it
    needs to create an order of transactions. Enter the so-called blockchain, which has attracted much
    attention from insurance companies, governments, industry and healthcare providers. A node can
    collect a set of transactions into a block and present it as the next block in the chain of transactions.
    These blocks contain a very specific mathematical problem, which starts a race between nodes to
    be the first to solve the problem – a problem so complicated that nodes can only keep guessing. The
    first node to guess right wins a certain amount of Bitcoin – hence the term Bitcoin ‘mining’ – and the
    transaction is irrevocably confirmed.
    29. Truly anonymous cryptocurrencies are not yet as popular as Bitcoin and others. While
    pseudonymity is already a large advantage for malicious actors, a public record exists of all
    transactions carried out by a particular pseudonym. While complicated and time consuming, it is thus
    possible to track transactions in the Bitcoin blockchain. However, some services on the dark web
    182 STCTTS 18 E fin
    7
    can mix Bitcoins from different transactions together. After the coin mixing, the same amount is
    sent but with different coins. This makes it harder to trace transactions back to one person, but given
    the massive growth in the cryptocurrency market, experts, companies and governments are finding
    ways to solve this particular problem, too. Those who want to make their transaction less traceable
    can make use of other shortcuts. For example, a cryptocurrency owner can pass the login
    information and/or recovery passwords of an account to someone else who can then access the
    account and its contents. In other words, there is no transfer to be traced.
    III. HOW TERRORISTS USE CRYPTOGRAPHIC TECHNOLOGIES
    30. Since the 1990s, extremist and terrorist organisations have been using internet technologies
    for various purposes, including data mining, communications, planning and coordination,
    propaganda, recruitment and mobilisation, training and fundraising (Weimann, 2015). As
    governments, companies, organisations and activists continue to increase their efforts to confront
    violent extremism and counter terrorism, extremists and terrorists are progressively turning to
    cryptographic technologies.
    31. Estimates of how many terrorists and followers are active on encrypted messaging services
    and the dark web or conduct business in cryptocurrencies vary widely. Indeed, for the most part,
    only anecdotal evidence exists. For example, the number of Telegram users could be anywhere
    between 10,000 and 80,000 (Stalinsky and Sosnow, 3 January 2017). A snapshot for March 2016
    shows that around 700 new Daesh-affiliated channels were opened (Barak, 2016). According to the
    Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, more than 50,000 websites and 300 forums for terrorist
    organisations were active on the dark web in 2011 (Rosner, London, and Mendelboim, 2013).
    However, a thorough study conducted in 2016 analysed 5,205 live websites on the dark web (Moore
    and Rid, 2016). It showed “the near absence of Islamic extremism”, with only 140 extremist dark web
    sites. Evidence of cryptocurrency use is even more sparse, with only a few individual cases seen in
    Gaza, Indonesia and the United States.
    A. COMMUNICATIONS, COMMAND AND CONTROL
    32. The surface web and instant messaging services have been a key instrument for extremist and
    terrorist communications, command and control. For example, Daesh terrorists used Telegram as
    their channel before, during and after the November 2015 Paris attacks (Stalinsky and Sosnow,
    3 January 2017). To capitalise on these attacks, Daesh then used social media for propaganda
    purposes, for example by uploading a video which showed the attackers during the time they spent
    in Syria (Noack, 2016).
    33. As the pressure on them increases, extremists and terrorists are migrating more and more
    towards encrypted messaging services and the dark web, without giving up their surface presence
    (Stalinsky and Sosnow, 3 January 2017). Indeed, extremists and terrorists have become very adept
    at linking the surface web, dark web and messaging services in a highly dynamic fashion that plays
    to every platform’s advantage: Facebook, Twitter and YouTube can reach large audiences, but are
    more exposed; encrypted messaging services and dark web sites are more secure and better suited
    for outreach to smaller groups and individuals but have limited reach.
    34. The use of encrypted messaging services for external communications has increased
    markedly in recent years. Telegram, for example, is used, inter alia, for recruitment, outreach,
    announcements, content distribution, the dissemination of information, threats and intimidation,
    claiming responsibility for attacks and pledges of allegiance (Stalinsky and Sosnow, 3 January 2017).
    The app has also introduced new features in recent years that make the platform more attractive for
    large-scale and even public communications. It allows the creation of group chats with thousands of
    members. These group chats allow members to post their opinions and ask questions. This gives
    them a sense of belonging and lets them see that they are not alone in thinking the way they do
    182 STCTTS 18 E fin
    8
    (Brown and Korff, 2009). Moreover, individuals and groups can launch public channels which anyone
    can follow, making Telegram more like Twitter (Stalinsky and Sosnow, 3 January 2017).
    35. So far, only limited external communications are carried out on the dark web. Its attractiveness
    for propaganda purposes is likely limited because it is difficult for most people to access. In particular,
    “novices may be deterred by taking an ‘illicit’ step early on, as opposed to simple, curious Googling”
    (Moore and Rid, 2016). Most dark web sites would require an invitation and credentials. Moreover,
    they are not as easy to locate as surface web sites. No central stable repository of sites exists. This
    is the reason why, in many online forums, extremist supporters and terrorists suggested the creation
    of a “Jihadwiki” (Weimann, 2015). As noted earlier, however, many indexing lists, forums and search
    engines have emerged in recent years, making the exploration of the dark web easier.
    36. In another sense, the dark web is also seeing more use, namely as a safe haven for
    propaganda material. After the 2015 Paris attacks, Daesh announced that the Isdarat website, which
    archives the group’s propaganda pamphlets, would be moved to the dark web due to increasing
    pressure on its surface web sites (Insite, 2015). Despite the website being hosted on the dark web,
    all media is still channelled through surface web sites such as Google Video.
    37. In many radicalisation processes, sympathisers move from first encounters in real life or on
    the surface web to encounters with more limited groups or individuals on instant messaging services.
    Sympathisers are then slowly groomed and passed on to new contacts who can test them and lead
    them further on their path of radicalisation. A key advantage is that an interested individual can be
    ‘tested’, become a member and even carry out a mission without any direct physical contact
    (Magdy, 2016).
    38. Encrypted messaging services are used extensively by groups like Daesh or al-Qaeda in the
    Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) for internal communications, command and control. The possibility
    of communicating quickly and anonymously with different parts of the world enables terrorist groups
    to train, plan, and execute attacks. For example, Daesh, AQAP, Ansar al-Sharia in Libya and the
    former Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria are reported to resort extensively to Telegram’s encrypted
    communications (Barak, 2016).
    39. While it is more difficult to use, the dark web can be and has been used for more targeted
    communications, command and control. In 2013, encrypted communication was intercepted by the
    US National Security Agency between al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri and Nasir al-Wuhaysi,
    the head of AQAP. It was later discovered that this communication took place in the dark web. Chat
    rooms hosted on Tor, like The Hub and OnionChat, personal messaging tools like Tor Messenger,
    Bitmessage and Ricochet, which work like messenger applications hosted on the dark web, are
    some of the options available to those who need to communicate with an added layer of anonymity
    and strong authentications systems. However, some experts argue that such hidden services on the
    dark web “are often not stable or accessible enough for efficient communication”
    (Moore and Rid, 2016).
    B. ACQUISITION OF WEAPONS AND OTHER ILLICIT GOODS
    40. According to a 2016 Europol review, the internet and social media are being used by Daesh
    for the acquisition of goods, like weapons and fake identity cards, that are necessary to perpetrate
    a terrorist attack (Europol, 2016). While there is no way for extremists and terrorists to fully ensure
    they are not being tracked, anonymous identities, postal boxes, and other low-technology ways of
    hiding one’s identity make such purchases possible. In particular, Europol highlighted that encrypted
    applications like WhatsApp, Skype or Viber are relatively safe ways for terrorists to acquire these
    goods below the radar of intelligence and law enforcement agencies.
    41. The dark web, especially Tor hidden services, is a well-known place for malicious actors to
    buy a multitude of illicit goods. For the moment, few in-depth studies exist on how extremists,
    182 STCTTS 18 E fin
    9
    terrorists and other criminals use the dark web market for illicit purchases. Indeed, only a few
    anecdotal stories are known to the public. After the 2015 Paris attacks, stories circulated that their
    weapons had been procured over the internet, but these reports have not been confirmed
    (Persi Paoli et al., 2017). It is confirmed, however, that a teenager who killed several people during
    a shooting spree in Munich in July 2016 had purchased his gun on a dark web market. The UN has
    also reported that some terrorist groups have been searching the dark web for information about
    weapons of mass destruction (Besheer, 2017).
    42. Experts at the RAND Corporation conducted the most in-depth study of the weapons market
    on the dark web, although it provides only a snapshot of a period of one week
    (Persi Paoli et al., 2017). Over the observed period, the researchers estimated that 52 unique dark
    web vendors of weapons were active with 811 relevant listings. Pistols were, by far, the most
    common item to be offered. Interestingly, digital products, such as manuals to manufacture firearms
    and explosives at home as well as weapons blueprints for 3D printers, were the second most
    common wares to be sold (of course, many of these digital products can also be retrieved with ease
    on the surface web). The researchers extrapolated that 136 sales, amounting to about USD 80,000,
    are generated over the dark web per month. This is marginal compared to the real-world illicit
    weapons trade. Indeed, the scale of the market remains limited and it only appears to be a viable
    option for smaller groups or individual actors. Furthermore, the ‘dark web community’ is cautious –
    if not doubtful – about the viability of the dark web weapons market because of “scamming,
    heightened policing, and low volume of weapons sales”. Overall, however, the RAND experts judge
    that “the volume can be considered sufficiently high to be cause for concern for policy makers and
    law enforcement agencies.”
    43. The pseudonymity or even anonymity of cryptocurrencies would make it easier for terrorists to
    pay for illicit goods. Indeed, all dark web transactions are carried out with cryptocurrencies. However,
    legal real-world transactions with cryptocurrencies are also increasing in number and could become
    a risk (Goldman et al., 2017). For example, private individuals in Texas can sell firearms to each
    other without background checks (Brill and Keene, 2014).
    C. TERRORIST FINANCING
    44. Terrorist financing takes many shapes and forms. The international financial system is tightly
    interconnected, and extremist and terrorist groups continue to find loopholes in the system.
    Moreover, at a smaller scale, terrorists use a variety of loans, welfare benefits, gift cards,
    person-to-person cash or digital transfers (Goldman et al., 2017).
    45. In the digital realm, extremists and terrorists perpetrate cybercrime to enrich themselves, for
    example by ransomware attacks, although experts believe that the volume of cybercrime in support
    of extremism and terror is still rather low. Experts also see a trend for calls for donations and the
    sale of paraphernalia moving towards encrypted messaging services (Stalinsky and Sosnow,
    12 September 2017). It is moreover plausible that terrorists could enter or have already entered illicit
    market places on the dark web to finance themselves, for example by selling illegal drugs, identities
    or credit card information.
    46. Ample real-world financing opportunities exist, but governments and experts have pointed out
    that cryptocurrencies could add another avenue for terrorist financing. The pseudonymity/anonymity
    cryptocurrencies ensure, their global reach and the lack of a clear regulatory frameworks all provide
    opportunities (Goldman et al., 2017). Indeed, regulators have been pointing out the risks for a
    number of years. For example, the European Banking Authority issued an opinion that put virtual
    currencies in a high-risk category for terrorist financing (European Banking Authority, 2014).
    47. While a few cases have been publicly known and extremists and terrorists have at times
    advocated for cryptocurrency use, al-Qaeda, Daesh and others have not yet used cryptocurrencies
    extensively. A host of factors can explain why (Goldman et al., 2017). First, it would require
    182 STCTTS 18 E fin
    10
    substantial technological sophistication to use existing cryptocurrencies at a large scale and with the
    desired degree of anonymity. Second, in many areas where terrorist groups operate, internet
    penetration is low and cyber infrastructure poor. Third, as terrorists, ultimately, want to create
    real-world effects, they must convert cryptocurrencies into real-world currency, which “introduces
    both an unnecessary layer of complexity and an increased vulnerability to the disruption of their
    operations”. Most importantly, extremists and terrorists have many alternatives to cryptocurrencies.
    Indeed, it remains entirely “possible to circumvent global rules governing terrorist financing with
    sufficient ease and frequency that using [virtual currencies] is unnecessary.” In short,
    cryptocurrencies “become a strategic threat in the counterterrorism context only when they can
    compete with cash and other readily available means of financing and achieve [scale]”.
    48. Based on such analyses, most government entities, regulators and even experts are still
    unsure about risk levels. The 2015 US National Terrorist Financing Risk Assessment, for example,
    argued that the risk remains unclear for now (US Office of Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes,
    2015). The UK government has reported no evidence of cryptocurrency cases in the United Kingdom
    and argues that this risk is “unlikely to increase significantly in the next five years” (UK HM Treasury
    & Home Office, 2017). Another expert warns against overstating the risk: “terrorist financing via
    cryptocurrencies is a risk that could grow with time, but one that warrants a measured response”
    (Carlisle, 2018).
    IV. CURRENT POLICIES AND FUTURE OPTIONS
    49. The use of cryptographic technologies by extremists, terrorists and other malicious actors
    presents a host of challenges for policymakers, law enforcement, intelligence services, businesses,
    private citizens and others. A variety of policies are in place and future options are available.
    However, there are no silver bullets, and many of the options could either lead to other problems or
    involve difficult political trade-offs. This section does not aim to be exhaustive but will discuss some
    of the most important elements and political debates about the way forward.
    A. MONITORING, REPORTING AND DISRUPTION BY ACTIVISTS, CITIZENS AND
    OPERATORS
    50. As in real life, citizens should report any suspicious behaviour, content or messages in the
    digital realm to the operators or relevant authorities. For several years, social media platforms,
    including encrypted messaging services, have been criticised for letting too much illegal material
    remain on their platforms for too long. Recently, this has begun to change, as governments have
    reached out to them or changed laws to compel them. As a result, many detection and reporting
    systems have improved. Going forward, new technologies, based on machine learning/artificial
    intelligence and big data analytics for example, should further improve automatic detection and
    removal mechanisms.
    51. In addition to reporting by users and removal by operators, a number of activist groups carry
    out voluntary monitoring, reporting and disruptive activities under the cover of anonymity that modern
    encryption provides (Solon, 2017). The hacktivist collective Anonymous has long targeted Daesh
    operations and even ‘declared war’ against the group after the 2015 Paris attacks. Other groups
    include the Ghost Security Group, Di5s3nSi0N, Daeshgram, KDK and the Hellfire Club. Some of
    these groups cooperate with law enforcement and intelligence agencies to counter extremism and
    terrorism. Others, more controversially, go against extremist and terrorist activities by themselves.
    52. The debate surrounding the monitoring, reporting and disruption of extremist or terrorist
    content is a complex and very political one where hard questions arise. What is the line between
    content that is illegal and must be removed and content that is covered under freedom of speech?
    Who decides to remove the content - the government, private citizens or political activists? If content
    is removed, should the people who remove it forward it to law enforcement or intelligence agencies
    182 STCTTS 18 E fin
    11
    or at least save the content for evidence purposes? Should governments actively encourage private
    citizens and activists or even sponsor independent ethical hackers or citizen cyber conscripts, or
    would that amount to vigilantism? And if the answer is yes, should they be encouraged to be merely
    reactive or to actively try to penetrate extremist and terrorist groups. In short, this policy debate is
    still very much unsettled.
    B. LAW ENFORCEMENT AND INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS
    53. Law enforcement and intelligence agencies already possess many tools to counter extremist
    and terrorist activities based on cryptographic technologies. Agencies should and do support the
    reporting of suspicious activities, but they must also engage in robust operations to monitor and
    thwart activities as well as attack extremist and terrorist networks.
    54. Like in any investigation, law enforcement can try to compel companies, under existing laws
    and regulations, to work with them. Most importantly perhaps, law enforcement can ask for access
    to the data or metadata of suspects and activities. The success of this approach depends, first, on
    the availability of data and/or metadata at the company. As more and more applications move
    towards very secure encryption, less and less data and metadata will be available for access even
    if companies and organisations want to cooperate. Second, some companies resist complying with
    government enquiries because of ideological or business reasons; others because they are
    headquartered in places beyond a government’s jurisdiction, where local governments may not have
    the capacity or will to assist. While it is challenging, government agencies should pursue all avenues
    allowed under the law.
    55. Policing activities on encrypted messaging services and the dark web as well as financial
    transactions with cryptocurrencies is necessarily more complex than policing the surface web. For
    example, recent operations to take down major illegal markets on the dark web have been long and
    complex and demanded investigative work both online and offline. Still, technological advances in
    monitoring, analysing, accessing and disrupting cryptotechnology use by extremists and terrorists,
    combined with the anonymity such technology also provides to government entities, should make
    policing progressively easier (Jardine, 2014; Chertoff and Simon, 2014). For example, as two experts
    point out: “A common misconception is that Tor is resistant to state-level surveillance and that its
    users can therefore act with impunity. In reality, any suitably resourced entity can launch an attack
    with high success rates while maintaining a minimal risk of detection” (Owen and Savage, 2015).
    With the right training, staffing and resources, law enforcement and other entities can thus block or
    manipulate nodes in the network, unmask Tor users and attack dark web sites (Owen and Savage,
    2015; Moore and Rid, 2016).
    56. More controversially, government entities can (and many do) also target encryption systems
    in a covert fashion. They could for instance find weaknesses in encryption systems, leave them in
    place and use them when they want to target individuals or groups. Law enforcement agencies and
    intelligence services could attempt to gain access to data or metadata in a covert fashion, but they
    could also seek system-level access and thus access the devices or dark web sites as a whole
    (Buchanan, 2016). They could then read the text messages as they are being composed on the
    device, record the phone calls as they take place and monitor other activities. However, such a step
    would be an escalation from typical wiretap operations because targeted malicious software would
    have to be deployed. This would be a move from passive collection to active surveillance. The
    legitimacy and legality of such actions will vary from state to state and depend on whether a state’s
    own citizens or foreign actors are targeted. Perhaps more critically, it would leave encryption systems
    exposed – if government entities can find vulnerabilities, malicious actors could do so as well. What
    is more, the tools and vulnerabilities used by governments could also leak out intentionally or by
    accident. The Shadow Brokers case, for example, has been described as one of the worst security
    breaches of a US intelligence agency. In 2016, a group calling itself the Shadow Brokers released a
    multitude of highly potent hacking tools used by the US National Security Agency, which means that
    they are now readily available for malicious actors.
    182 STCTTS 18 E fin
    12
    57. Law enforcement agencies also work on identifying and fixing security gaps in
    cryptographic technologies. For example, while Bitcoin’s code is meant to protect it from being
    hacked, a weakness could expose the currency to digital threats. At the end of 2017, INTERPOL
    and the cybersecurity company Kaspersky found a flaw in Bitcoin’s public ledger which made it
    susceptible to malware. In response, a joint project by INTERPOL and European law enforcement
    agencies will address those elements of Bitcoin which facilitate the avoidance of law enforcement
    detection – all the while respecting the privacy of Bitcoin users.
    58. Another potent component of countering the illicit use of cryptographic technologies would be
    to increase international cooperation at all levels of government and across many lines of efforts,
    including on investigations, legal prosecution, and operational processes. One important aspect, for
    example, is to update and adapt Mutual Legal Assistance Treaties (MLAT). MLATs are agreements
    between different governments (unilateral or multilateral) to exchange information related to an
    investigation. Allied states should also attempt to establish MLATs with countries of concern, even
    though this will be difficult if countries do not share the same sense of urgency or values when it
    comes to policing cryptographic technologies.
    C. NEW LAWS AND REGULATIONS
    59. In a changing threat and technological landscape, governments should reflect upon their laws
    and regulations and, if they deem it necessary, should introduce new laws and regulations for
    encrypted messaging services, the dark web or cryptocurrencies.
    60. In all Allied countries, vigorous debates about data and metadata retention laws are taking
    place. However, vast political differences exist on this question across the Alliance. Often, these
    debates pit those who argue for strong privacy rights against those who argue that state security
    could and should be enhanced by seeking companies to retain (more) metadata or data on their
    servers (even if in encrypted form) and make them more easily accessible to government agencies
    during investigations. Typically, companies strongly resist such steps. For one, they fear losing
    business to other similar but more secure services, in particular those beyond the regulating
    country’s jurisdiction. Additionally, many technology companies are political supporters of strong
    privacy rights and oppose new laws and regulations on this ground. While such policy debates will
    remain difficult, policymakers should not shy away from them, given the risk and threats emanating
    from extremism and terrorism.
    61. With the Bitcoin phenomenon continuing unabated, fundamental questions on how to regulate
    cryptocurrencies are not yet settled. Robust counter-terrorist financing tools already exist in
    national laws, in the financial sector and at the international level and they should be used to their
    fullest. However, there is ample scope to adapt the regulatory framework and to engage companies
    and organisations in the cryptocurrency sector to police themselves. Policy debates on how to adapt
    current laws and adopt new ones to reduce the abuse of cryptocurrencies for money laundering and
    terrorist financing are taking place all across the Alliance. States can look towards some of the
    trailblazers in this regard. Outside the Alliance, Japan has generally accepted cryptocurrencies, but
    it was also one of the first countries to change its legislation. It has introduced, for example, obligatory
    annual audits and capital requirements for cryptocurrency exchanges as well as other anti-money
    laundering measures. Many Allies and the European Union are also continuously strengthening their
    efforts.
    62. Blocking or forbidding certain services or whole technologies, for example
    cryptocurrencies, is another option that is at times put forward. However, such an approach might
    not be viable beyond the short term. For those seeking strong cryptographic technology services,
    plenty of alternatives exist. It is a consistent trend that extremists and terrorists adapt quickly when
    pressure on certain platforms increases. In the world of encrypted messaging services, for example,
    “once a platform becomes less friendly to terrorists, they will migrate to another more secure channel”
    (Stalinsky and Sosnow, 3 January 2017). In response, some experts have argued for industry-wide
    182 STCTTS 18 E fin
    13
    standards or codes of conduct (Stalinsky and Sosnow, 3 January 2017). However, similar problems
    arise here as well: there will always be individuals or companies who would cater to extremists and
    terrorists. Some authoritarian states, notably China with its Great Firewall, have tried to fully shield
    their country from certain services, but such an approach has not shown itself to be effective and
    would most likely not be seen as legal or legitimate in Allied countries (Buchanan, 2016).
    D. WEAKENING OR TARGETING ENCRYPTION
    63. More radical and controversial options are sometimes put forward. One possibility would be to
    regulate encryption strength, limiting the strength of encryption protocols in the civilian market
    while keeping powerful encryption in government hands. Indeed, in the first half of the 1990s, the
    United States had a two-tiered system in place for a brief period of time (Buchanan, 2016): strong
    encryption standards were legal in the United States, but only weaker encryption protocols could be
    exported. In a world with little computing power and few users, a certain degree of control over
    high-level encryption technology was feasible. However, with digitalisation and globalisation, it is no
    longer possible to control encryption software and the publicly-known mathematical principles behind
    it. It is difficult to see how such a two-tiered system could be effective, implementable and even
    politically acceptable today. This is especially true as emerging or over-the-horizon technologies like
    artificial intelligence, big data analytics and quantum computing will make it easier to break today’s
    strongest encryption technologies.
    64. Another more intrusive response would be to require “backdoors” in encryption protocols,
    which governments could use in criminal or terrorist cases. Theoretically, if citizens can trust the
    government not to abuse its powers and if the keys to the backdoor remain secure in the
    government’s hands, users could still have adequate cryptographic protection (Buchanan, 2016).
    However, such an approach might face insurmountable challenges. First, it would require a very high
    amount of trust in government institutions. It is questionable whether publics in Allied countries would
    accept this approach, which raises important questions about privacy rights. Second, from a
    technological standpoint, it is doubtful whether such a system could even work. Some experts argue
    that it is mathematically impossible to introduce deliberate weaknesses while maintaining a high level
    of security. Even if possible, introducing backdoors increases the complexity of encryption protocols,
    making them very vulnerable to state and non-state hackers, thus leaving citizens at greater risk
    from cyber criminals and hostile governments (Buchanan, 2016). Moreover, in such a situation,
    developers would probably quickly try to design new encryption techniques to cater to a rising
    demand for more secure applications (Moore and Rid, 2016).
    V. CONCLUSION
    65. This report has aimed to highlight the ways extremists and terrorists can and do take
    advantage of encrypted messaging services, the dark web and cryptocurrencies. As shown, these
    cryptographic technologies hold important potential for good for a wide variety of actors – from
    individual citizens to the international community as a whole. However, malicious actors have quickly
    found ways to use them in malicious ways. It is the task of policy- and decisionmakers to maximise
    the benefits and minimise the risks from emerging technologies.
    66. As the digital landscape is changing, all stakeholders must better understand the evolving use
    of cryptographic technologies as well as their opportunities and risks. Awareness of and a proactive
    approach to cybersecurity must spread across the whole of society. Through outreach, cooperation
    and incentives, governments can support all stakeholders in this process. Moreover, the responsible
    entities in governments, organisations and companies must be properly resourced, equipped,
    educated and trained to adapt to the changes that cryptographic technologies bring.
    67. Robust policing of and strong regulations for cryptographic technologies are necessary.
    However, in this particular debate, it is a critical challenge for liberal democracies to continue to
    182 STCTTS 18 E fin
    14
    preserve fundamental human rights, such as privacy and freedom of speech, while living up to the
    challenge of keeping citizens safe from harm. Your Rapporteur agrees with those that see a need
    for “[a] principled, yet realistic, assessment of encryption and technology” (Moore and Rid, 2016).
    Policymakers must base their discussions on sound first principles, facts and the possibilities and
    limits of technologies.
    68. Your Rapporteur understands that, political views differ substantially across the Alliance on
    where acceptable lines for liberal democracies lie on these matters. Yet, he hopes that this report
    can spark a debate that leads to an agreement about a number of baselines for a transatlantic
    response to the challenges of cryptographic technologies. Fundamentally, these questions must be
    answered at the national level. Still, international dialogue and cooperation have been proven to be
    a key to tackling some of the risks emanating from cryptographic technologies.
    69. Your Rapporteur would like to propose a set of concrete policy recommendations for Allied
    governments and parliaments.
    - In all responses, the rights, liberties and freedoms of the people must be recognised,
    guaranteed, protected and permanently upheld.
    - The principles of proportionality and limited government must always be employed. Ordinary
    people’s lives must not be turned into a hardship by disproportionate measures aiming at more
    and more control over the society at large.
    - Any measures to thwart extremist and terrorist use of cryptographic technologies must be
    strictly designed for the counter-terrorism purposes.
    - Policies should be embedded in the larger framework of countering violent extremism and of
    counter-terrorism efforts.
    - Risk and situational awareness should be raised across the whole spectrum of stakeholders.
    Government outreach and working with citizens, activists such as ethical hackers, companies,
    organisations, government entities and others is crucial in this regard.
    - Stakeholders should continue to police and take down extremist and terrorist material on
    messaging services and the dark web. Taking down one group, channel or website may just
    mean others will take its place, but this is the nature of policing in free societies.
    - Law enforcement and intelligence agencies should engage in robust investigations and
    operations to monitor and thwart activities as well as attack extremist and terrorist networks.
    - Research and development efforts to advance technological solutions to police cryptographic
    technologies should be increased, in particular in artificial intelligence and big data analytics.
    - Systematically weakening encryption methods does not provide a viable path forward, as it
    would undermine security for all.
    - International dialogue and cooperation on law enforcement and intelligence operations should
    be increased, in particular on information sharing, investigations, legal prosecution and
    operational processes.
    - The powers of governments, including those of law enforcement, intelligence and security
    services, as well as the use of these powers by the aforementioned entities, should be
    subjected to efficient and effective democratic control and rendered accountable to the people.
    - The entire Alliance should strictly renounce all subversive activities (through action or
    omission) of its own government, intelligence and security complexes, be it national,
    international or supranational (e.g. in collusion with organised crime and other malicious
    entities or through newly-created proxies), which might be aimed at deliberately creating,
    sustaining and/or condoning security risks, threats, synthetic malicious actors, preplanned
    problem–solution dialectics, psychological operations, inside jobs, false flags, etc. – whatever
    motive there might be. In other words, the end must not justify the means, and this in itself can
    dramatically reduce the severity of security issues our citizens, our peoples are faced with.
    182 STCTTS 18 E fin
    15
    SELECT BIBLIOGRAPHY
    (For further information on sources, please contact the Committee Director)
    Barak, Michael, The Telegram Chat Software as an Arena of Activity to Encourage the “Lone Wolf”
    Phenomenon, International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, 24 May 2016
    Bartlett, James, The Dark Net: Inside the Digital Underworld, London: William Heinemann, 2014
    Bergman, Michael K., “White Paper: The Deep Web: Surfacing Hidden Value”, in Journal of
    Electronic Publishing, vol. 7, no. 1, 2001
    Besheer, Margaret, “UN: Terrorists Using 'Dark Web' in Pursuit of WMDs”, Voice of America,
    28 June 2017
    Brill, Alan and Keene, Lonnie, “Cryptocurrencies: The next Generation of Terrorist Financing?”
    Defence Against Terrorism Review, vol. 6, no. 1, 2014
    Brown, Ian and Korff, Douwe,, “Terrorism and the Proportionality of Internet Surveillance”,
    European Journal of Criminology, vol. 6, no. 2, 2009
    Buchanan, Ben, “Cryptography and Sovereignty”, Survival, vol. 58, no.5, 2016
    Carlisle, David, Cryptocurrencies and Terrorist Financing: A Risk, But Hold the Panic, RUSI, 2 March
    2017
    Chertoff, Michael and Simon, Tobby, “Chapter Two: The Impact of the Dark Web on Internet
    Governance and Cyber Security”, in Cyber Security in a Volatile World, Global Commission
    on Internet Governance, 2014
    Coinmarketcap, Cryptocurrency Market Capitalizations, n.d.
    Cypher Research Laboratories, A Brief History of Cryptography, 2014
    Driscoll, Scott, How Bitcoin Works Under the Hood, Imponderable Things (Scott Driscoll’s Blog),
    14 July 2013
    European Banking Authority, EBA Opinion on ‘virtual currencies’, 4 July 2014
    Europol, Changes in Modus Operandi of Islamic State Terrorist Attacks, Europol, 18 January 2016,
    FinCEN, Application of FinCEN's Regulations to Persons Administering, Exchanging, or Using
    Virtual Currencies, FinCEN, 2013
    Goldman, Zachary et al., Terrorist Use of Virtual Currencies: Containing the Potential Threat, Centre
    for a New American Security, 2017
    Greenberg, Andy, “Hacker Lexicon: What is Perfect Forward Secrecy?”, Wired, 28 November 2016
    Insite Site Staff, IS Shifts Propaganda Archive to the Dark Web, Insite Blog on Terrorism &
    Extremism, 18 November 2015
    Jardine, Eric, “Chapter Three: The Dark Web Dilemma: TOR, Anonymity, and Online Policing”, in
    Cyber Security in a Volatile World, Global Commission on Internet Governance, 2014
    Keatinge, Tom and Keen Florence, Lone-Actor and Small Cell Terrorist Attacks: A New Front in
    Counter-Terrorist Finance?, RUSI, 2017
    Lee, Alex, “Theresa May’s Crackdown on the Internet Will Let Terror in the Backdoor”,
    The Guardian, 20 June 2017
    Magdy, Sarah, “A Safe Space for Terrorists”, The British Journalism Review, vol. 27, no. 4, 2016
    Marr, Bernard, “A Short History Of Bitcoin And Crypto Currency Everyone Should Read”, Forbes,
    6 December 2017
    Microsoft, Journey Through the World Wide Web, Microsoft, 19 July 2016
    Moore, Daniel and Rid, Thomas, “Cryptopolitik and the Darknet”, Survival, vol. 58, no. 1, 2016
    Niglia,A., Al Sabaileh, A. , and Hammad, A., Countering Terrorism, Preventing Radicalization and
    Protecting Cultural Heritage: The Role of Human Factors and Technology, NATO, Brussels:
    NATO Science for Peace and Security Series, 2017
    Noack, Rick, “France’s Latest ‘Terrorist Attack’ Exposes Dark Side of Social Media”, The Washington
    Post, 14 June 2016
    Owen, Gareth and Savage, Nick, “Chapter Four: The Tor Dark Net”, in Cyber Security in a Volatile
    World, Global Commission on Internet Governance, 2015
    Persi Paoli, Giacomo et al., Behind the Curtain: The Illicit Trade of Firearms, Explosives and
    Ammunition on the Dark Web, RAND Europe, 2017
    Rosner, Yotam, London, Sean and Mendelboim, Aviad, “Backdoor Plots: The Darknet as a Field
    for Terrorism”, INSS Insight, vol. 464, no. 1, 2013
    182 STCTTS 18 E fin
    16
    Solon, Olivia, “Global Network of 'Hunters' Aim to Take Down Terrorists on the Internet”,
    The Guardian, 21 July 2017
    Stalinsky, Steven and Sosnow, R., Germany-Based Encrypted Messaging App Telegram Emerges
    as Jihadis Preferred Communications Platform, Middle East Media Research Institute,
    3 January 2017
    Stalinsky, Steven and Sosnow, R., Jihadi Use of Encrypted Messaging App WhatsApp, Middle East
    Media Research Institute, 12 September 2017
    Stalinsky, Steven and Sosnow, R., Switzerland-Based Encrypted ProtonMail Emerges As Popular
    Jihadi Platform – Especially Among ISIS Hacking Groups, Middle East Media Research
    Institute, 26 October 2017
    Statista, Number of Monthly Active WhatsApp Users Worldwide from April 2013 to December 2017
    (in Millions), Statista, 2018
    Tor Metrics, Servers, Tor Metrics, 2018
    UK HM Treasury & Home Office, National Risk Assessment of Money Laundering and Terrorist
    Financing 2017, UK HM Treasury & Home Office, 2017
    US Office of Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes, National Terrorist Financing Risk Assessment
    2015, US Department of the Treasury, 2015
    Weimann, Gabriel, “Going Dark: Terrorism on the Dark Web”, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, vol.
    39, no.3, 2015
    ______________________
    SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
    COMMITTEE (STC)
    NATO SCIENCE AND
    TECHNOLOGY:
    MAINTAINING THE EDGE
    AND ENHANCING
    ALLIANCE AGILITY
    Special Report
    by Leona ALLESLEV (Canada)
    Special Rapporteur
    183 STC 18 E rev.1 fin | Original: English | 18 November 2018
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    ACRONYMS………………………………………………………………………………….I
    I. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................1
    II. WHAT DEFINES NATO’S S&T EDGE?.................................................................................2
    III. WHAT IS NATO’S ROLE IN ALLIANCE DEFENCE S&T?.....................................................3
    A. THE NATO S&T COMMUNITY AT A GLANCE.............................................................3
    B. THE ADDED VALUE OF NATO S&T............................................................................6
    IV. THE WAY FORWARD ON NATO S&T: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS..............................8
    A. UNLEASHING THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE NATO S&T COMMUNITY.................8
    B. NURTURING A MORE DIVERSE NATO S&T COMMUNITY ..................................... 10
    C. ENHANCING THE AGILITY OF NATO S&T ............................................................... 10
    D. DEMONSTRATING THE VALUE OF S&T TO THE MILITARY COMMUNITY ............ 12
    E. IMPROVING STRATEGIC ENGAGEMENT AND COMMUNICATIONS ..................... 12
    F. REINFORCING THE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ORGANISATION.................... 13
    1. The NATO Chief Scientist and the Office of the Chief Scientist ......................... 13
    2. The Collaborative Support Office....................................................................... 14
    3. The Centre for Maritime Research and Experimentation.................................... 14
    G. EVALUATING NATO S&T ON MISSION DELIVERY.................................................. 15
    H. INCREASING TRANSPARENCY ON DEFENCE S&T INVESTMENTS ..................... 16
    V. CONCLUSION..................................................................................................................... 18
    SOURCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY ....................................................................................... 19
    ANNEX 1: LIST OF INTERVIEWS....................................................................................... 20
    i
    ACRONYMS
    ACT Allied Command Transformation
    AFSC Alliance Future Surveillance and Control
    C3 Consultation, Command and Control
    CDT Cooperative Demonstration of Technology
    CNAD Conference of National Armaments Directors
    CMRE Centre for Maritime Research and Experimentation
    COMEDS Committee of the Chiefs of Military Medical Services
    CPoW Collaborative Programme of Work
    CSO Collaboration Support Office
    NATO HQ NATO Headquarters
    NATO PA NATO Parliamentary Assembly
    NCIA NATO Communications and Information Agency
    NDPP NATO Defence Planning Process
    NIAG NATO Industrial Advisory Group
    OCS Office of the Chief Scientist
    R&D Research and Development
    S&T Science and Technology
    STB Science and Technology Board
    STC Science and Technology Committee
    STCTTS Sub-Committee on Technological Trends and Security
    STO Science and Technology Organization
    183 STC 18 E rev.1 fin
    1
    I. INTRODUCTION
    1. On 4 October 1957, the Soviet Union launched Sputnik, the world’s first satellite. Given the
    military advantages the technology promised, the launch sent shockwaves through the transatlantic
    Alliance, and Allies had to race to make up for lost time. NATO cannot be caught off-guard like this
    again.
    2. NATO’s most staunch commitment is that Allies stand united to deter any potential aggression
    and, if deterrence fails, to collectively defend themselves. Consequently, NATO must possess the
    full range of capabilities to fulfil its duty to deter and defend the citizens of the Alliance. NATO’s
    unrivalled defense science and technology (S&T) edge remains the lifeblood of current and future
    capabilities. Unfortunately, a real possibility exists that the Alliance could fall behind in defense S&T
    in the coming years.
    3. A brief look at missile technology, artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum technologies
    illustrates the difficulty of maintaining NATO’s S&T edge:
    - Missile technology: In March 2018, President Vladimir Putin boasted about new nuclear
    weapons under development, including a heavy intercontinental missile, an ‘invincible’ cruise
    missile and an unmanned nuclear-armed underwater vehicle. Shortly after, Russia
    successfully tested its Kinzhal hypersonic missile. China is also investing heavily in missile
    technology, including two hypersonic weapon systems tested on multiple occasions.
    - AI: China is investing USD 150 billion in artificial intelligence to become the world’s leading AI
    innovator by 2030. In 2017, China’s share of global AI equity funding was 48%, compared to
    the United States’ share of 38% (CBInsights, 2018). Even though Russia appears to be behind
    the AI curve (global ranking on AI investments: 33rd
    place), President Vladimir Putin clearly
    recognized AI’s potential when he said in 2017: “Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere
    will become the ruler of the world” (Soumitra, Lanvin and Wunsch-Vincent, 2018).
    - Quantum technologies: China is making huge strides in quantum technologies. The
    government is spending USD 10 billion on a new national laboratory. In 2016, Chinese and
    Austrian researchers successfully held the first intercontinental video call secured through
    quantum encryption by way of a Chinese satellite. In 2017, China also launched a land-based
    quantum communications network with the aim of connecting Beijing and Shanghai over 2000
    km.
    4. Since US Senator Henry Jackson’s visionary leadership over 60 years ago, the STC has
    remained vigilant in guarding NATO’s S&T edge. Alas, in 2017, the Committee – supported by the
    NATO Parliamentary Assembly as a whole – noted its worry “that NATO’s technological edge is
    eroding” (NATO PA, 2017b). Consequently, the STC is redoubling its efforts to identify the
    challenges in meeting Alliance goals and to lend political support to rectify any shortcomings. Your
    Special Rapporteur is eager to carry forward this vital work, to communicate our findings to Allied
    governments, parliaments and – vitally important – citizens and thus to effect a fundamental change
    in mindsets.
    5. Most Allies and NATO entities are beginning to understand the importance of maintaining the
    S&T edge. However, your Rapporteur would argue that a much greater sense of urgency must
    prevail. For one, NATO faces an increasingly volatile and unsettling international situation with
    challenges and threats from all strategic directions. More importantly in the context of this report, a
    changing global S&T landscape also presents new challenges in maintaining the edge: potentially
    disruptive inventions and innovations are increasingly driven by smaller and more commercially-
    oriented companies as well as by nations or companies outside the Alliance. In short, if the Alliance
    does not intensify its efforts to maintain the S&T edge, the window of opportunity to adapt to the
    changing circumstances will rapidly close. And if the window were to close, the Alliance could face
    a capability gap so significant it would be challenging to remedy.
    183 STC 18 E rev.1 fin
    2
    6. This special report is a direct follow-up to the 2017 General Report Maintaining NATO’s
    Technological Edge: Strategic Adaptation and Defence Research and Development, which focused
    on defense research and development (R&D) spending and reforms (NATO PA, 2017b). In this
    report, your Rapporteur seeks to answer to the following questions:
    - What defines the S&T edge?
    - What is NATO’s overall mission in maintaining the S&T edge?
    - How can NATO evaluate its delivery of the S&T mission?
    - Does NATO need new institutions, networks, policies or tools to fulfil its mission?
    7. Your Rapporteur presented a first special report at the 2018 Spring Session, where Committee
    members provided valuable input for its revision. To make this report as complete as possible, the
    STC Director conducted interviews with 30 national and NATO officials on behalf of your Rapporteur
    (see Annex 1). The analysis contained in this report draws extensively on these interviews.
    8. You Rapporteur hopes to paint a good picture of where NATO S&T finds itself today, where it
    should be tomorrow and where stakeholders dissent in their assessments. She knows that certain
    recommendations may require refinement through more in-depth analysis, but the task at hand –
    ensuring that NATO S&T remains fit for purpose – requires bold ambitions. The STC continues to
    stand ready to support this task.
    9. Your Rapporteur had to make choices to keep the report within a reasonable length. Therefore,
    while NATO S&T has made S&T capacity building within the Alliance and with partner countries and
    institutions one of the cornerstones of its agenda, this report is squarely focused on NATO and the
    Allies. By excluding partnerships, your Rapporteur does not mean to diminish the vital role of
    partnerships in maintaining the S&T edge. Indeed, in the current S&T landscape these will become
    ever more important. In particular, the STC should continue to engage in proper discussions
    regarding the future of research and development in the European Union as well as partnerships
    with NATO’s enhanced-opportunity partners.
    II. WHAT DEFINES NATO’S S&T EDGE?
    10. Since this Committee was created in the 1950s, its members have been concerned with
    preserving NATO’s advantage in S&T. However, little clarity exists about what defines NATO’s
    advantage in S&T or what the Committee has begun calling the ‘S&T edge’. Alas, the research for
    this report yielded no conclusive answer either. Many interlocutors questioned the premise of the
    question, arguing that ‘S&T edge’ could not be properly defined. Even if it could, it would be very
    difficult to measure – to the point of impossibility. Nevertheless, the conversations generated certain
    illuminating points.
    11. For many interlocutors, the more interesting and valid question was “What constitutes the
    military edge?”. This question goes far beyond S&T. It must include analyses of military ‘hardware’
    as well as military ‘software’, including doctrine, organization, training, leadership, or personnel.
    Defense analysts have a long history of studying the military edge. Nevertheless, such analyses
    often turned out inaccurate once conflict broke out or when new information shed light on past
    analyses. Today, such analyses have become even more difficult.
    12. If such traditional metrics are already this difficult, designing valid defense S&T metrics for the
    Alliance would be even more complex. How do you evaluate whether a nation has the right mix of
    scientists and engineers, effective S&T processes or a healthy defense industrial or research base
    to support S&T? How do you account for very different approaches to defense S&T? And how would
    one aggregate analyses at the Alliance level?
    183 STC 18 E rev.1 fin
    3
    13. Only highly-trained specialists in the various S&T domains might be able to design and
    measure such metrics. The problem is that such analyses would very quickly run into highly sensitive
    areas where Allies would not want to share much information amongst themselves. Even if such
    hurdles could be cleared, it is very difficult to see how the results could be communicated at an
    unclassified level without revealing too much to any potential adversaries. And even if analysts could
    come up with metrics, would voters, decision makers and defense practitioners be able to
    understand what these metrics mean in practice?
    14. Interlocutors who argued that metrics could be defined or, at least, roughly characterized
    suggested several big-picture questions that could be examined (see Table 1). Unfortunately,
    exploring these questions in an exhaustive and valid way goes beyond the scope of this report.
    15. Regardless of metrics, some interlocutors strongly argued that the Alliance may be overtaken
    in the medium to long term or may already have fallen behind in several S&T areas. Interviewees
    pointed to a number of S&T areas which should be monitored closely (see Table 2).
    Table 1: What could characterize the S&T edge? Table 2: S&T Areas of Concern
    - What is the global annual distribution of science, technology,
    engineering, and mathematics graduates?
    - What is the global annual distribution of registered patents
    and research articles?
    - Which country has won the highest number of Nobel Prizes
    in recent years?
    - What are the capability and investment trends in key
    technologies, for example supercomputers, quantum computers
    or AI?
    - How many hypersonic weapons tests have China and
    Russia performed, compared with the Alliance?
    - How much are China and Russia investing into artificial
    intelligence, compared with the Alliance?
    - How long would it take for China and Russia to replicate the
    cutting-edge capabilities within the Alliance?
    - anti-submarine warfare
    - artificial intelligence
    - autonomy
    - big data analytics
    - chemical, biological,
    radiological and nuclear defense
    - cyber defense and security
    - directed-energy weapons
    - electronic warfare
    - heavier conventional capabilities
    - hypersonic missiles
    - meta-materials
    - quantum technologies
    - space technologies
    - synthetic biology
    16. In conclusion, however, a more nuanced ambition for the Alliance should prevail in the absence
    of clear metrics, which is well reflected in NATO’s S&T mission: “maintain NATO’s scientific and
    technological advantage by generating, sharing and utilizing advanced scientific knowledge,
    technological developments and innovation to support the Alliance’s core tasks”. That being said,
    while defining specific and quantifiable scientific metrics might sometimes prove elusive, merely
    asking the question focuses the conversation and ensures that creative tension and a challenge
    function remain in the system. Your Rapporteur encourages the Committee to continue to ask these
    questions and instill the necessary dynamism into the Alliance.
    III. WHAT IS NATO’S ROLE IN ALLIANCE DEFENCE S&T?
    17. In an Alliance of sovereign states, the primary responsibility to maintain a robust defense S&T
    base and to discover, develop and adopt cutting-edge defense technologies naturally lies with NATO
    member states themselves. Allies must expend sufficient resources on military-relevant S&T and
    continually re-evaluate and adapt their national processes and institutions. However, in an Alliance
    united in purpose, extensive and meaningful coordination, cooperation and collaboration of defense
    S&T adds significant value to national efforts, while establishing interoperability and the necessary
    overarching command and control.
    A. THE NATO S&T COMMUNITY AT A GLANCE
    18. To achieve its S&T mission, the NATO S&T community brings together “national S&T
    capacities, both people and infrastructure, as well as NATO’s own research and experimentation
    capacity” see Figure 1). The Alliance has several NATO entities that support this community.
    183 STC 18 E rev.1 fin
    4
    Figure 1: NATO S&T Community
    19. Unified governance of NATO S&T is exercised through the NATO Science and Technology
    Board (STB), composed of national representatives and NATO S&T stakeholders. The NATO Chief
    Scientist chairs the STB with the support of two Co-Vice-Chairs from NATO’s International Staff and
    International Military Staff. The STB promotes coherence of NATO S&T through objectives set out
    in the NATO S&T Strategy, focuses work through medium-term NATO S&T Priorities (see Table 3)
    and serves as a focal point for all NATO S&T programs of work.
    20. The Science and Technology Organization (STO) is the main NATO entity focused on S&T.
    Led by the STB, it is composed of three executive bodies.
    - The Office of the Chief Scientist (OCS) at NATO
    Headquarters (HQ): Managed by the NATO Chief
    Scientist, the seven-person OCS acts as the bridge
    between the Collaboration Support Office, the
    Centre for Maritime Research and Experimentation
    as well as NATO entities and senior leadership at
    NATO HQ.
    - The Collaboration Support Office (CSO) in
    Neuilly-sur-Seine, France: The CSO in Paris
    provides a collaborative environment and supports NATO S&T activities through six Panels
    and one Group (see Table 4). In 2017, the CSO had a staff of 43. The CSO’s core activity is
    to support and enable the STO Collaborative Programme of Work (CPoW).
    Table 3: 2017 S&T Priority Areas
    Precision Engagement
    Advanced Human Performance & Health
    Cultural, Social & Organizational Behaviors
    Information Analysis & Decision Support
    Data Collection & Processing
    Communications & Networks
    Autonomy
    Power & Energy
    Platforms & Materials
    Advanced Systems Concepts
    183 STC 18 E rev.1 fin
    5
    - The Centre for Maritime Research and
    Experimentation (CMRE) in La Spezia, Italy: The
    CMRE is a customer-funded in-house STO laboratory.
    Its team of 161 staff (2017) organizes and conducts
    basic and applied research as well as technology
    development and demonstrations. Research areas
    include autonomous surveillance; port and ship protection; maritime situational awareness;
    and environmental knowledge and operational effectiveness. The Centre also acts as a
    knowledge repository for NATO.
    21. Several other NATO entities carry out their own S&T related activities and contribute to the
    programs of work of other NATO S&T stakeholders:
    - Allied Command Transformation (ACT): Based in Norfolk, Virginia ACT leads NATO’s
    initiatives for the transformation of military structures, forces, capabilities and doctrines to
    enable NATO to meet its level of ambition and fulfil its core missions. ACT's work concentrates
    on five lines of efforts: future work; the NATO Defence Planning Process; requirements;
    capability development; and force development.
    - The Conference of National Armaments Directors (CNAD): The CNAD is the senior NATO
    committee responsible for promoting armaments cooperation between Allies. Chaired by the
    NATO Assistant Secretary General for Defence Investment, the CNAD supports Allies in
    defense planning, standardization and interoperability efforts. The CNAD also acts as an
    advisory body to the North Atlantic Council (NAC).
    - NATO Industrial Advisory Group (NIAG): The NIAG is a high-level consultative and advisory
    body of senior industry representatives under the CNAD. Its role is to facilitate Alliance
    armaments cooperation; advise on the industrial and technological base; support capability
    development; and act as an interface between industry and NATO.
    - The Emerging Security Challenges Division: The Emerging Security Challenges Division at
    NATO HQ addresses non-traditional risks and challenges. Mostly focused on policy, the
    Division has two work strands engaged in S&T related work: a Defence Against Terrorism
    Programme of Work and the Science for Peace and Security Programme.
    - The Committee of the Chiefs of Military Medical Services (COMEDS): COMEDS is NATO’s
    senior body on military health. It seeks improvement in coordination, standardization and
    interoperability in military medicine as well as in information sharing between Allies and
    partners.
    - The Consultation, Command and Control (C3) Board: The NATO C3 Board focuses on
    information sharing and interoperability, including on issues such as cyber defense,
    information assurance and joint intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. The Board
    reports to and advises the NAC, the Defence Planning Committee, and the CNAD.
    - The NATO Communications and Information Agency (NCIA): The customer-funded NCIA’s
    mission is to guard NATO’s networks; offer timely support during operations; deliver C3
    technology throughout NATO; and support Allies in their development of capabilities in the
    fields of C3, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance.
    Table 4: STO Panels and Group
    Applied Vehicle Technology
    Human Factors and Medicine
    Information Systems Technology
    NATO Modelling and Simulation Group
    Systems Analysis and Studies
    Systems Concepts and Integration
    Sensors and Electronics Technology
    183 STC 18 E rev.1 fin
    6
    B. THE ADDED VALUE OF NATO S&T
    22. Just as with any other policy area in the Alliance, the nations remain fully in the driver’s seat –
    a fact which must be firmly kept in mind when analyzing how to improve NATO S&T. No NATO entity
    dictates terms to nations on S&T – and none should. This should not be seen as a weakness,
    however. It ensures that NATO S&T activities are connected to national priorities and directly support
    national needs and requirements. Moreover, when the NATO S&T community establishes common
    views and, for example, translates these into NATO S&T Priorities (see Table 3), they have been
    validated by all 29 Allies.
    23. Defense S&T remains firmly anchored within the nations, both in terms of capacities and
    efforts. At the NATO level, nations choose to come together to coordinate, cooperate and collaborate
    on S&T. Many nations have other forums where they can pursue international defense S&T if they
    wish to do so. Thus, the quantity and quality of participation depends heavily on the political
    importance the nation attaches to NATO as well as on national interests, priorities and budgets. As
    a consequence, it is a question of continued interest for national and NATO S&T leaders to
    understand how the NATO S&T community can remain a forum of choice.
    24. Certainly, NATO S&T is not ‘the center of the universe’ within the Alliance. NATO S&T does
    not have the resources to compete with defense S&T conducted by nations or even defense
    companies with large budgets and only has a very limited ability to influence S&T trends.
    Nevertheless, NATO S&T is a critical enabler to maintain the full range of capabilities necessary to
    fulfil Alliance missions. The reason Allies choose to invest upwards of EUR 500 million in NATO S&T
    (mostly through national budgets) is the substantial added value it provides a) in the identification of
    risks and opportunities and the diffusion of knowledge and expertise, b) in concrete R&D efforts and
    c) through a range of cross-cutting benefits.
    25. Identification of risks and opportunities and diffusion of knowledge and expertise: For
    many Allies – if not all – it is impossible to follow all military-relevant technological trends. For one,
    governments are no longer the main driver across the whole S&T spectrum. Allies with limited
    defense budgets can be especially dependent on the knowledge and expertise in the NATO S&T
    community. The combined Allied perspective provides much better situational awareness and
    enables NATO S&T to deliver timely, targeted advice and higher-quality cost-effective results.
    26. The national and NATO officials interviewed for this process pointed to a number of concrete
    ways how NATO S&T helps nations and NATO:
    - monitoring and understanding key military and dual-use S&T trends;
    - staying ahead of S&T trends to avoid strategic surprises;
    - improving advice and strategic communications to relevant Allied and NATO decision makers
    and entities;
    - promoting information and knowledge sharing among Allies and within NATO institutions;
    - building a consolidated and validated knowledge base in support of national and NATO lines of
    effort;
    - identifying opportunities for coordination, cooperation or collaboration;
    - avoiding unnecessary duplication among Allies; and
    - encouraging or facilitating the determination of collective S&T targets and priorities.
    27. Concrete research and development efforts: NATO S&T goes beyond the identification of
    risks and opportunities and the diffusion of knowledge and expertise. Across NATO entities, the
    Alliance offers a range of tools to cooperate, coordinate and collaborate on concrete R&D efforts.
    NATO S&T’s role in these efforts is to accelerate capability development through STO activities, as
    the 2018 NATO S&T Strategy states. Main tools include prototyping, demonstrations, tests and
    experiments – a topic further examined in the next section.
    183 STC 18 E rev.1 fin
    7
    28. Interlocutors noted in particular that the STO:
    - helps sustain or increase S&T and R&D capacity in nations, in particular in those with a smaller
    S&T base;
    - encourages and facilitates high-quality S&T and R&D at the national level; and
    - fosters NATO-level and multinational S&T and R&D collaboration.
    29. During the interviews, interviewees also identified a range of concrete cross-cutting benefits
    for nations and the Alliance as a whole.
    - Burden sharing: In the current global S&T landscape and at current budget levels, no NATO
    member state can shoulder the defense S&T burden alone. NATO S&T enables the sharing of
    resources; establishes economies of scale; and creates synergies and network effects. Indeed,
    the return on investment can be very large. One interlocutor argued that his nation leveraged up
    to 10 times the money put into NATO S&T activities. Even nations with limited defense S&T
    investment can contribute significantly through niche competencies. Such opportunities will
    continue to grow. Emerging areas of investment, such as AI, big data analytics, autonomy or
    cyber, are increasingly driven by software and algorithm development and often only require
    smart brains – not large capital investments.
    - Capacity building: NATO S&T brings together scientists, engineers and analysts from
    government, industry and academia. This helps them gain new knowledge, experience and skills
    – to the benefit of their nations. Nations who cannot (yet) effectively contribute to NATO S&T
    efforts or absorb defense S&T developments can volunteer as chairs of activities and build up
    their capacities over time.
    - Interoperability and standardization: Interoperability and standardization are key to NATO
    operations – they are the glue binding NATO’s militaries together on the battlefield. Thus, the
    earlier in the R&D process member states can work towards interoperability, the better (and
    cheaper) for the Alliance.
    - Quality assurance: S&T thrives on peer review. In NATO S&T, national experts can submit their
    ideas and work to a larger community in classified and non-classified settings – with the former
    adding substantial value.
    - Building trust and confidence: The Alliance is built on trust and confidence. Without this, the
    Alliance could not function. During operations and, at worst, wartime, Allies will need to send
    troops into harm’s way. Building trust at all levels, including at the S&T level, is therefore
    immensely valuable.
    - Demonstrating political commitment: Active participation in NATO S&T demonstrates political
    commitment to other Allies. This is crucial, especially in times of political strain within the Alliance.
    - Leveraging network effects: The NATO S&T community provides a network with a well-defined
    structure. National representatives meet and interface with colleagues outside traditional bilateral
    relations. This facilitates coordination, cooperation and collaboration in NATO S&T, but can also
    be leveraged in other NATO entities and lead to bi- or multilateral projects outside NATO S&T.
    - Ease of cooperation: NATO S&T is a government-to-government relation, taking certain
    competitive elements out of the equation, especially at lower technology-readiness levels. Allies
    value the low threshold for initiating collaboration, which normally only requires four nations to
    start an activity.
    - The US dimension: For many nations, especially those with limited defense S&T budgets, the
    continued deep involvement of the United States in NATO S&T is a cornerstone, given that US
    183 STC 18 E rev.1 fin
    8
    defense S&T investment is multiple times the investment in the rest of NATO members.
    Maintaining a broad and deep presence of the United States in the NATO S&T community must
    remain a priority.
    IV. THE WAY FORWARD FOR NATO S&T: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
    A. UNLEASHING THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE NATO S&T COMMUNITY
    30. The 2012 NATO S&T Reform aimed to make NATO S&T more effective and affordable. It
    required NATO S&T stakeholders to break down old barriers, build new effective connections and
    form a more cohesive NATO S&T community. The community has made huge strides since then. In
    general, the interviewed stakeholders underlined they were comfortable with the new S&T
    framework. Within the community there is a growing interconnectivity. Nevertheless, not all barriers
    have been completely removed nor all connections established or filled with life. The positive aspects
    of a situation still in flux is that it offers the possibility to make dynamic change before bureaucratic
    inertia sets in.
    31. The distinct parts of the community need to continue building a lively ecosystem where NATO
    S&T networks can connect and which communities outside the NATO S&T community can tap into
    or contribute to. Interlocutors argued that this would lead to more coherence, more effective
    exploitation of existing institutions and networks and more systematic cross-fertilization on key S&T
    topics.
    32. Interviewees singled out a number of communities with which the NATO S&T community
    needs to better interact: academia; acquisition authorities; defense planners; traditional and
    non-traditional defense industry; military authorities and operators; national S&T stakeholders;
    political leadership; and the armaments community. Based on her research, your Rapporteur would
    thus put forward a number of recommendations.
    33. Other communities must be brought into the NATO S&T process earlier to increase the
    relevance of S&T activities. For example, more defense planners should be brought into the CSO’s
    work during the formulation of the CPoW.
    34. The NATO S&T community must work towards more active and systematic engagement with
    other communities in order to offer S&T perspectives on their problems and needs. For example, the
    NATO S&T community should engage with national armaments planners to the fullest by engaging
    with the CNAD framework whenever opportune and meaningful.
    35. The NATO S&T community must increasingly engage in the NATO Defence Planning Process
    (NDPP), making it a focal point for bringing the different stakeholders and communities together (see
    Table 5). NDPP-driven future requirements are increasingly employed within the S&T community.
    Nevertheless, substantial work remains to be done. The NATO S&T community should stay ahead
    of the curve and focus on the 2023-2028 NDPP cycle.
    36. The S&T Community must consult more
    closely and directly with military operators
    and users and communicate results in a
    manner meaningful to them. It is clear that
    military operators and users demand more
    from the S&T community. The military
    community desires quick results, which
    requires mutual expectations management,
    political leadership from the top and a more agile NATO S&T community that is sympathetic to the
    military’s needs and requirements (see below). This is why prototyping, demonstration, tests and
    Table 5: NATO’s Four-Year Defence Planning Process
    Step 1 - Establish political guidance
    Step 2 - Determine requirements
    Step 3 - Apportion requirements and set targets
    Step 4 - Facilitate implementation
    Step 5 - Review results
    Current status: Step 1
    Start of next NDPP cycle: July 2023
    183 STC 18 E rev.1 fin
    9
    experiments are crucial (also see below). The new Structured Partnership between ACT and the
    STO as well as more interaction with Allied Command Operations through this Partnership will further
    reinforce this. If the NATO S&T community can deliver on this, buy-in from the military community
    will increase drastically.
    37. Building better relationships with national delegations at NATO is central to increasing national
    buy-in for NATO S&T. It will be difficult and perhaps a strain on resources, but such an effort offers
    a lot of potential. Building better relationships requires increasing contacts, establishing personal
    relationships and exploring national needs. The OCS and other NATO HQ-based entities should
    lead this effort.
    38. While NATO and industry are coming closer together, engagement must be intensified.
    Increased dialogue would enable S&T leaders to indicate what problems they need addressed, and
    industry can offer insights into current and next-generation S&T. Such industry involvement should
    start much earlier than it does today, in a more structured manner and at lower levels. It should also
    include more non-traditional industry players.
    39. The interconnectivity of IT systems and databases within NATO and with the nations must be
    enhanced. To break down barriers and enable more tight interactions, useful data must be easily
    shared between different stakeholders, including at higher classification levels, for example between
    the STO and COMEDS.
    40. The tight coupling between academia, industry and defense S&T must be strengthened within
    nations and should be explored at the NATO level. The so-called Triple Helix between academia,
    government and industry offers great potential for the creation of new knowledge, inventions and
    innovations.
    41. Lastly, frequent parliamentary engagement in national parliaments as well as through the
    NATO PA is key to delivering better NATO S&T. Parliamentarians are crucial for providing support
    to robust defense S&T programs. The NATO S&T community must help parliamentary work by
    providing insight into relevant technological developments and investment opportunities. Your
    Rapporteur notes that the interaction between the STC and the NATO S&T community – at both the
    staff and leadership levels – has drastically increased both in frequency and quality, especially after
    the 2015 and 2017 Letters of Intent between the NATO PA Secretary General and, respectively, the
    NATO Chief Scientist and the NIAG Chairman. The interactions should continue to improve. NATO
    and national S&T leaders should increase engagements with parliaments, for example with regular
    updates on technology trends or by directly supporting NATO PA delegations on S&T matters. Your
    Rapporteur encourages her colleagues to extend invitations to national and NATO S&T leaders to
    engage in substantive and regular discussions in their national parliaments. Direct personal
    discussions are key to understanding the challenges and opportunities that lawmakers must think
    through to keep their armed forces and the Alliance as a whole at the cutting edge of S&T and,
    ultimately, preserve the military edge. Your Rapporteur would like to underline that engagement with
    members of parliament must be targeted and timely. Communications must provide parliamentarians
    with evidence of the merit and impact of the work performed within the NATO S&T community by
    showing its relevance to military matters but also to salient societal issues. Engagement must be
    politically meaningful and digestible, without diminishing the scientific merit behind the messages.
    The STC should stand ready to provide further insights into what the parliamentary needs are in
    terms of S&T engagement.
    42. Your Rapporteur would also like to note that parliamentarians have a responsibility to increase
    their S&T situational awareness and knowledge. S&T is ever more present in societies, and
    parliaments are conducting an increasing number of inquiries focused on S&T risks and
    opportunities.
    183 STC 18 E rev.1 fin
    10
    B. NURTURING A MORE DIVERSE NATO S&T COMMUNITY
    43. As in other parts of the defense and security world, the question of how the NATO S&T
    community can increase diversity has become crucial. Indeed, the community needs to achieve an
    improved gender and demographic balance and draw new members into emerging S&T areas where
    the community’s knowledge base is thin. The most pressing concern in the NATO S&T community
    appears to be the age balance.
    44. The STO, for its part, has analyzed the demographics of its network and communicated the
    results to Allies, who ultimately must drive the change. NATO entities have little leverage over
    nations, which often want to send their most experienced scientists and engineers. Fortunately, a
    number of Allies take the challenge of diversifying their defense S&T workforce very seriously. NATO
    S&T leadership should use its vantage point to the fullest by supporting these efforts and convincing
    others to do the same.
    45. As the Committee learnt on its 2018 visit to San Diego and Silicon Valley, the competition for
    the best and brightest S&T talent is fierce and the opportunities outside the government and outside
    defense and security are vast. Allied S&T leaders must be visible and proactive enough to ensure
    they can attract and retain scientists and engineers of the caliber we will need to maintain the S&T
    edge. While the private sector can offer financial and certain other incentives that defense S&T
    cannot, national and NATO S&T leadership must communicate the unique selling points of defense
    S&T to those it needs to attract into the network. For example, the STO taps into an active network
    of about 5,000 experts which, in turn, can reach out to an extended network of 200,000 colleagues.
    The STO network thus constitutes the world’s largest collaborative research forum in the field of
    defense and security. It also offers travel opportunities, a high quality of work and research
    opportunities the civilian sector cannot provide.
    46. Young scientists and engineers often lack enough incentives to engage in NATO S&T work.
    Scientific and technical work carried out within a NATO context is difficult, albeit not impossible, to
    transition into publications that count in career advancement. In other words, if young scientists and
    engineers must go to greater lengths in NATO S&T to advance their careers, why would they bother?
    The NATO S&T community must investigate how to lower the barriers for meaningful publications.
    47. Moreover, the current model of temporary contracts makes it less attractive for young people
    to apply for NATO positions. Such contracts take them out of national career advancement tracks
    without being beneficial for their careers. Here, nations need to learn from each other on how to offer
    opportunities that are not disruptive to budding careers.
    48. Three recent laudable initiatives aim to expose more young scientists and engineers to NATO
    S&T. First, the STB has begun giving out early career awards. Second, the STB hosted a young
    career event in the side-lines of its last meeting where the young scientists and engineers could
    present their work and expose it to the senior STB level. These early career efforts should continue.
    Third, within the CMRE, a career path for young incoming scientists has been recently developed.
    49. Moreover, the NATO S&T community should explore:
    - how to send a better signal to young scientists and engineers;
    - whether to devise a dedicated diversification policy;
    - how to establish networks of young scientists and engineers; and
    - whether S&T contests could be a good way to tap into new talent pools.
    C. ENHANCING THE AGILITY OF NATO S&T
    50. Given the challenges the Alliance faces, including an accelerating S&T landscape, increasing
    agility in the NATO S&T community – in the people, tools, equipment and network – is of utmost
    importance. Many interlocutors cautioned, however, that this would be difficult and take time. Once
    183 STC 18 E rev.1 fin
    11
    again, the nations are critical, as agility enters NATO S&T through their financial and personnel
    contributions. Some interlocutors argued that NATO as an institution should not be the leader on
    agility. For one, the strength of NATO S&T lies in long-term S&T rather than in quick results.
    Moreover, nations tend to micromanage NATO efforts, which would be counterproductive for agility.
    51. The NATO S&T community is indeed working diligently on increasing its agility. The OCS has
    developed the von Karman Horizon Scanning tool to quickly perform a technology scan on a
    particular S&T topic (time needed: two to six months) and ad hoc initiatives like the Maritime Security
    Initiative focusing on submarine warfare and naval mine warfare. The CSO has increased its agility
    through increased leadership by the Director of the CSO; through improved receptiveness and
    sensitivity to demands by the STB and the NATO Chief Scientist; and through tools such as
    Technology Watch and S&T Themes focused on operational needs. The CMRE has started to
    analyze its future options and possibilities from a content, resources and business-model
    perspective, under the leadership of its Director. ACT is refining the requirement process for
    development and acquisition and is looking to improve industry cooperation. The NIAG will become
    more agile by moving away from cumbersome long-term studies and into studies with quicker
    turnaround times.
    52. Throughout the interview process, a number of recommendations stood out favorably for your
    Rapporteur:
    - NATO S&T leadership should actively engage with nations, NATO S&T subject matter experts
    and military operators and users on the importance of an agile mindset.
    - The NATO S&T community should encourage more risk taking in NATO S&T, for example
    through prototyping, demonstrations, test and experiments (see below).
    - NATO S&T leadership should foster a more strategic approach to S&T in the NATO S&T
    community.
    - NATO S&T leadership should encourage nations to make available national experts who are
    well versed in introducing agility.
    - National best practices to increase agility should be collected, analyzed and shared. These best
    practices should cover such areas as risk management; fast-track development; acquisition;
    program management; and technology transition. The CNAD Framework for Innovation, which
    analyzes national innovation initiatives, is a good example that should be applied in other areas.
    - New policy tools to facilitate Alliance exploitation of emerging and disruptive technologies must
    be developed, for example in AI, automation, cyber and big data.
    - NATO S&T should continue to foster communities of interest and boost activities focused on
    autonomy, big data and artificial intelligence, and operations in contested urban environments,
    i.e. the current STO Themes. The STC will examine the implications of artificial intelligence in
    the 2019 STCTTS Report.
    - A better, more broadly visible and available information management system must be developed
    to make NATO S&T readily visible and searchable by all relevant national S&T and capability
    development authorities.
    - Information sharing at a higher classification level, including of research data, must be eased to
    stay at the forefront of S&T. In particular, easing national security clearance processes could
    facilitate dialogue at the early stages.
    - Prepare prototyping, demonstrations, tests and experimentation packages that are ready to be
    implemented when the demand arises.
    - Seed money tools should be developed which can be used without burdensome approval
    processes, which could be used by military commanders or the NATO S&T leadership to support
    demonstrations or rapid studies and analyses for example.
    - Military commands could create technology ambassadors who could scan the S&T landscape
    for potential solutions for operational needs.
    - Processes at NATO, for example regarding capability development and requirement setting,
    should be revised and streamlined.
    183 STC 18 E rev.1 fin
    12
    - Competition-based tools, which the NCIA, for example, has experimented with, should be
    explored.
    D. DEMONSTRATING THE VALUE OF S&T TO THE MILITARY COMMUNITY
    53. Increasing the use of prototyping, demonstrations, tests and experiments to demonstrate to
    military operators and users what S&T can already offer them today emerged as a key
    recommendation throughout the research for this report. Interlocutors – both the stakeholders who
    carry them out and those who are the beneficiaries – agreed that such efforts need to be stepped
    up. Such efforts:
    - accelerate capability development by bridging the so-called valley of death between
    research and development;
    - help nations understand where they stand on S&T compared to other Allies;
    - showcase concrete practical military relevance today; and
    - bring problem solvers into contact with those who must deal with problems in operational
    environments.
    54. The NATO S&T community already conducts prototyping, demonstrations, tests and
    experiments, most importantly in the CSO, ACT and CMRE. The CSO continues to increase the
    number of Cooperative Demonstrations of Technology (CDTs). In 2018, the number is expected to
    rise to 18 (up from eight in 2017 and two in the previous years). ACT’s experimentation work is of
    critical importance as well, as it takes place in a realistic operational setting. The CMRE is also
    increasingly tying its experimentation work into military exercises. Industry’s interest in getting
    involved in demonstrations, tests and experiments is steadily increasing as well.
    55. The Alliance needs to elaborate better processes and tools to facilitate the insertion of S&T
    into operational settings, especially Allied Command Operations exercises and ACT activities. NATO
    S&T has now proven that its demonstrations and tests do not ‘ruin the exercises’, as some military
    operators had feared. The interplay between operators, S&T and industry has also proven
    productive. All involved have succeeded in breaking down barriers. However, processes should
    become much smoother and move away from ad hoc interactions that are too dependent on
    personalities.
    E. IMPROVING STRATEGIC ENGAGEMENT AND COMMUNICATIONS
    56. A key point noted in almost all interviews was the need to strengthen the NATO S&T
    community’s strategic communications. If defense S&T – regardless of the forum – is out of sight, it
    is out of mind – regardless of S&T’s objective merits. Ultimately, the NATO S&T community must
    create advocates in other communities who are convinced of the value S&T brings to their problems
    and needs. The S&T community cannot be its own lone advocate. Ideally, communicating the
    importance of S&T needs to come from the political leadership. In this context, the NATO Chief
    Scientist plays an instrumental to make STO and NATO S&T more visible at NATO HQ and beyond.
    Concretely, communications should:
    - convey messages in a language understandable and meaningful to the audience;
    - provide concrete answers to the question: “So what?”;
    - focus on concrete, individual success rather than presenting complete but abstract documents;
    - offer concrete support and advice;
    - showcase S&T’s impact and importance; and
    - help ‘connect the dots’.
    58. Some very practical suggestions were mentioned by interlocutors. For one, S&T-minded
    ambassadors could come together for an ambassadorial event in order to raise the visibility of S&T
    at NATO HQ. Also, NATO S&T should organize events at NATO HQ on salient and current issues,
    183 STC 18 E rev.1 fin
    13
    for example the value of S&T in responding to the Salisbury chemical attack or its contribution to
    novel capabilities like the F-35. Moreover, a planned CDT at NATO HQ could further raise awareness
    and visibility of NATO S&T and set a good example for future CDTs at NATO HQ.
    F. REINFORCING THE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ORGANIZATION
    59. Almost all interlocutors agreed that the overall set-up was right to deliver on the NATO S&T
    mission and that the focus should be on getting the best within the existing organizational model.
    Nevertheless, some questions on organizational adaptation remain open and very much debated in
    the NATO S&T community. In particular, further adaptation of the NATO STO and its executive
    bodies appears to be in order. The current manpower allocations were generated in 2012, when the
    STO carried out a markedly smaller program of work and there were fewer demands on the STO’s
    three executive bodies. Equally importantly, the strategic environment has changed markedly since
    then as a result of Russia’s destabilizing activism in the Euro-Atlantic area, in particular its illegal
    annexation of Crimea and its military intervention in Eastern Ukraine. Overall defense budgets
    across the Alliance are rising to meet this challenge. Thus, a complete review of workload,
    requirements, manpower and organization is appropriate, based on better data and a better
    understanding of the evolving threat environment. Now that the STO has been in place for 6 years,
    it is only proper to fully review it and recommend changes, as appropriate, to the NAC.
    1. The NATO Chief Scientist and the Office of the Chief Scientist
    60. Most interlocutors argued that creating a NATO Chief Scientist position at NATO HQ in 2012
    had been a crucial decision. NATO senior leadership and entities in Brussels are beginning to
    recognize the NATO Chief Scientist and the OCS, even though it has taken longer than many
    anticipated. Interlocutors cited a number of important reasons having the STO represented with a
    Chief Scientist at NATO HQ.
    61. The STO is a NATO entity. As such, it needs to be represented at NATO HQ, where it can
    build up political networks and relationships, which are fundamental for effective policy making in the
    Alliance. Such trusted networks and relationships increase the agility of the STO as a whole. The
    STO can now much more easily provide S&T advice to senior leadership and NATO entities based
    in Brussels when appropriate or demanded, both formally and informally. Indeed, the Chief Scientist
    is part of the NATO HQ Senior Leadership meeting. He regularly briefs the Military Committee,
    delivers advice to the North Atlantic Council and works hand-in-hand with other parts of the S&T
    Community to increase program coherence, for example with the Emerging Security Challenges
    Division. To increase connectivity, some interlocutors called for the OCS to increase its interface
    with the Private Office of the NATO Secretary General. For the national S&T representatives, who
    only meet twice a year at the STB level, having the Chief Scientist in Brussels is also a key additional
    resource to understand and potentially shape NATO policy. For example, tackling the evolving
    relationship between the European Union (EU) and NATO on S&T could not be handled at the
    appropriate political and senior level without the OCS in NATO HQ.
    62. Some interviewees questioned whether an organizational structure with three executive bodies
    in the STO continues to be the right model. The NATO Chief Scientist does not lead the STO as a
    whole. The Directors of the CSO and the CMRE have their own responsibilities and authorities, which
    can make day-to-day management complex and dependent on personal relationships. Some thus
    argued that these positions should be subordinate to the Chief Scientist to allow for better oversight
    of the STO on behalf of the STB. This question requires more analysis, as this view may be a minority
    view. The current organizational structure of the STO comes from the NATO Reform of 2012.
    63. The NATO Chief Scientist position is filled as a voluntary national contribution. A lively debate
    exists in the STO whether this remains a sustainable model, as the filling of such a critical position
    relies on the goodwill (and funding) of individual nations.
    183 STC 18 E rev.1 fin
    14
    2. The Collaborative Support Office
    64. The CSO is supplied with core funding from the NATO budget (EUR 5.85 million in 2018). The
    CPoW has seen significant growth, both in overall activities and in the crucial CDTs, since 2012. The
    number of activities run each year has increased by 77% in the last ten years – from 141 in 2007 to
    264 in 2017. This is a sign of the added value NATO S&T can provide to nations. A number of
    interlocutors noted that, if the CPoW were to grow even more – which is expected – the CSO would
    quickly reach a limit as to how many more activities it could support. Already, support for the more
    strategic efforts is becoming increasingly difficult and the CSO does not have the means to support
    all proposed CDTs. The CSO, in particular the Director, may have to engage in more direct outreach
    to national representatives to get activities started. Indeed, some nations have appreciated such a
    push in the past. Such efforts would require the dedication of time and staff as well as backup by
    STB members. Some interlocutors called for a slight increase in manpower, with perhaps two to four
    additional staff. One interviewee argued that the main need was to connect nations better with the
    CSO, which required increased travel budgets to identify synergies.
    65. Financial constraints and the lack of human resources, at times, hinder the valuable
    participation in the CPoW of representatives from the rest of the NATO S&T community, particularly
    ACT, the CMRE and the NCIA. Some interlocutors argued that these entities should examine ways
    of increasing their participation in the CPoW. The CSO for its part should explore ways to improve
    the value added through their participation in the CPoW.
    66. If Allies want to be serious about NATO S&T, they also need to remain engaged and even step
    up their support. Nations provide continuous support through international military personnel and
    voluntary national contributions. If that support were to disappear, the CSO would collapse.
    Currently, critical positions are left vacant because no nation is willing to put forward the necessary
    voluntary national contributions or international military personnel, which make up more than a
    quarter of the staff. Moreover, at times, the formulation of opinions in the panels and group is driven
    by personal interests, rather than by a strategic approach. For example, the possibility of engaging
    in high-risk/high pay-off activities is not given enough attention, according one interlocutor. Moreover,
    some interviewees questioned whether there is enough renewal and agility in the program. Indeed,
    visibility regarding underperforming projects is very limited, due to the lack of monitoring. One
    interlocutor argued that a more strategic approach to CSO activities was not called for, pointing to
    the national prerogatives.
    3. The Centre for Maritime Research and Experimentation
    67. The CMRE is the one institution in the NATO S&T community that almost every interviewee
    argued is under heavy strain. Opinions vary widely on how to adapt the Centre (or not). The current
    organizational model and even the future of the CMRE appear very much in question. With the NATO
    S&T Reform, the CMRE became fully customer funded. The Centre has no core funding, putting
    severe limits on its room for maneuver, especially in terms of business development, sustainment of
    assets and long-term projects. Many interviewees argued the customer-funded model, as it stands
    today, is not valid anymore. If left untouched, the CMRE will not be able to survive. A hybrid model
    that retains a strong market-based logic, incorporates an element of core funding as well as new
    tools and maybe charges customers more was proposed by several interlocutors.
    68. One interlocutor argued that the CMRE is actually not really customer funded, as most of its
    revenue stream still comes from one customer (ACT), and was not really in a market – the market
    wants results tomorrow, but the CMRE is mostly focused on the long term. He argued that
    governments should step in and pay for the vital long-term S&T the CMRE produces, and that he
    Centre was a common asset and must be funded like one. Those holding this view advocated to
    seriously explore NATO common funding opportunities. Beyond a set level of such common funding,
    one interlocutor suggested that a percentage share of the CMRE’s revenue streams could be
    matched with NATO funds. In other words, the more success the CMRE found on the market, the
    183 STC 18 E rev.1 fin
    15
    more it could invest in the future. Some argued that it would also require the CMRE’s mission to be
    updated and sharpened. One suggestion was adding a focus on research and experimentation in AI
    and autonomy, given the vast data sets the CMRE continues to generate in these areas.
    69. The market does not have a lot of customers beyond NATO entities and Allied and partner
    nations. It is true that new opportunities exist in EU research programs. However, NATO-EU relations
    are not yet fully formalized, including on crucial issues such as the exchange of classified
    information. Could the CMRE then fully tap into this potential? Even if the CMRE could find more
    novel customer-funding streams, another question beckons: would the Centre’s activities drift too far
    away from core Alliance needs and requirements?
    70. While the CMRE offers significant value to nations, military operators and users as well as
    national S&T representatives do not always communicate this. Advocacy by the CMRE itself and by
    ACT, its main customer, cannot be enough. Increased advocacy from nations and military
    commands which clearly benefit from the CMRE is fundamental. And they are beginning to do so.
    At Allied Maritime Command for example, there is significant appetite for the services the CMRE
    provides, but more systemic interaction between the CMRE and Maritime Command needs to be
    developed.
    71. On balance, your Rapporteur strongly suggests that the current CMRE model be revisited. It
    goes beyond the scope of this report to devise robust recommendations. However, she would argue
    that it cannot be an option to just wait and see if an organisation can survive with a model that is not
    truly geared for survival. If that were the case, tax payers – and your Rapporteur – would not
    understand why the Allies needed to pay for an experiment facing such high odds. She would
    therefore urge for a careful analysis with a view towards making the CMRE fit for purpose. The
    CMRE is a world-class S&T institution, with capabilities that nations individually or in cooperation
    would struggle to fill if the CMRE were to fail or would lead to unnecessary duplication. In a time
    when nations are increasingly worried about maritime situational awareness and anti-submarine
    warfare, making the CMRE fit for purpose must remain the goal – also as a way to send a strong
    strategic signal that NATO takes these challenges seriously.
    G. EVALUATING NATO S&T ON MISSION DELIVERY
    72. As the NATO S&T community is strengthening its efforts and adapting to the new strategic
    reality, it is imperative to evaluate the community on mission delivery. This will be a difficult endeavor,
    and perfect indicators for such an evaluation may not exist.
    73. For one, measuring how high-quality S&T is translated into capabilities is extremely difficult
    because of the time lag between S&T and successful development. The invention of the transistor
    in the 1960s has led to unparalleled applications several decades later, and the end is not yet in
    sight. How does one measure this? Moreover, the rewards of NATO S&T are normally reaped in
    nations and the visibility of successes quickly gets lost, even when they circle back into the NATO
    S&T machinery. Unfortunately, NATO S&T does not “put a string” on its activities to track where the
    efforts lead. This would be an obvious next step to showcase and track NATO S&T results.
    74. No specific metric or ‘dashboard’ for the evaluation of S&T mission delivery exists at this point.
    Several interlocutors admitted that the NATO S&T community was not doing well enough on
    evaluating itself and called for a concrete plan to do so. One interviewee argued that it was
    impossible to evaluate S&T much beyond the input side of the equation. The input side is indeed a
    good start to evaluate NATO S&T because it is more easily measured and is partly captured in the
    NDPP process.
    75. Most agreed that the NATO S&T Strategy provides a good framework to characterize
    implementation, in particular through its goals, lines of effort and investment areas (see Table 6).
    Indeed, the STB will need to develop such a framework to report to the North Atlantic Council on the
    183 STC 18 E rev.1 fin
    16
    implementation of the Strategy. One interlocutor argued that the Strategy was “timeless” and should
    not be changed every few years. In this way, the community could build up a track record. One
    interlocutor did, however, argue that the Strategy was still too vague for good metrics, especially
    ones targeted at individual nations, and lacked accountability instruments.
    76. Also, the NATO S&T Priorities (see Table 4 above and Figure 2) serve as a reference frame
    for topical evaluation and overall coverage, by correlating NATO S&T activities and S&T Targets of
    Emphasis, which are linked to NDPP defined requirements. Indeed, many interlocutors emphasized
    the need to base evaluation on the NDPP process. Some interlocutors argued that S&T activity
    strands should be analyzed to see whether they delivered (although it is unclear how delivery would
    be measured). If they do not, they should be wound down.
    77. National participation in
    NATO S&T activities should
    continue to be tracked and
    analyzed and lead to a more
    proactive NATO S&T approach to
    engaging with nations. Drops in
    participation should be analyzed
    and followed up on, as they could
    be a result of the (perceived) lack
    of concrete benefits for that nation.
    H. INCREASING TRANSPARENCY ON DEFENCE S&T INVESTMENTS
    78. Currently, public NATO reporting on defense expenditure only has four very broad categories,
    namely expenditure on ‘equipment’, ‘personnel’, ‘infrastructure’ and ‘other expenditure’. Defense
    S&T and R&D falls under the equipment category. In other words, in NATO’s public reporting, a
    dollar spent on buying off-the-shelf artillery is counted in the same way as a dollar spent on AI
    research. While many Allies publish such numbers individually and publicly, it might be useful to do
    so at the NATO level. NATO’s Defence Policy and Planning Division tracks these numbers, but these
    statistics are classified.
    79. Your Rapporteur explored whether NATO should publish defense S&T and R&D numbers for
    the Allies, i.e. peeling them off the equipment category. Alas, no clear answer emerged. Of those
    asked, more than half supported such a move; a fifth answered with a firm no; and the rest did not
    know what the best move would be.
    Table 6: 2017 NATO S&T Goals, Lines of Effort and Investment Areas
    Goals • Accelerate Capability Development
    • Deliver Timely, Targeted Advice
    • Build Capacity through Partnerships
    Lines of Effort • Stay at the Forefront of S&T
    • Forge and Nurture Effective Partnerships
    • Promote Prototyping and Technology
    Demonstrations
    • Enhance Alliance Decision Making
    • Focus on Alliance Needs to Boost Impact
    Investment Areas • Enhance the Network of Partners
    • Intensify Strategic Communications
    • Improve the Programs of Work
    • Promote Coherence
    Figure 2: 2017 NATO S&T Activity across the whole NATO S&T
    Community
    12% Precision Engagement
    9% Advanced Human Performance & Health
    8% Cultural, Social & Organizational Behaviors
    11% Information Analysis & Decision Support
    17% Data Collection & Processing
    8% Communications & Networks
    4% Autonomy
    3% Power & Energy
    8% Platforms & Material
    20% Advanced Systems Concepts
    183 STC 18 E rev.1 fin
    17
    80. Many – even among those who advocate publishing the numbers – underlined that it would be
    very difficult to come up with correct and quality-assured definitions and data that would capture the
    true state of affairs. One could end up comparing apples and oranges. Some even questioned how
    robust the numbers under the NDPP truly are. Nations vary widely in how they conduct and account
    for defense S&T and R&D. Some smaller Allies – by choice or due to limited budgets – do not
    conduct much or any defense S&T, for example. Some Allies do not report all the military relevant
    S&T and R&D data because the money spent is overseen by ministries or institutions outside the
    Ministry of Defense’s purview. Allies have widely differing S&T and R&D systems, for example
    regarding the balance of state and private funds, defense versus broader security-related S&T and
    R&D spending as well as dual purpose and military S&T and R&D.
    81. Those who did not advocate publishing the numbers often cited these difficulties, but also
    pointed to other factors. Publishing the data might:
    - reveal too much to potential adversaries;
    - create internal tensions within the Alliance similar to the strain related to the Wales Investment
    Pledge; or
    - would not enhance the public debate, as the trade-off between long-term and short-term benefits
    of defense S&T/R&D is a complex matter.
    82. However, among the latter group, many argued that the NDPP numbers should be made more
    visible within NATO institutions. Others also suggested that the NATO S&T community might want
    to get more actively involved in data collection and scrutiny, as it gives insight into the Alliance’s and
    Partners’ S&T portfolio choices.
    83. Those who advocated full transparency used other arguments:
    - Public and peer pressure on those Allies not spending enough on defense S&T and R&D should
    lead to increases in those who undervalue defense S&T and R&D.
    - The political mandate lies with the parliament and the people, and transparency should thus be
    the default option.
    - Many nations do publish these numbers already, and it would not be a huge leap to systematize
    data collection and publishing.
    - National S&T leaders could use such numbers to position their nation among its peers and
    communicate this to political decision makers.
    - Publishing these numbers could increase awareness and investment.
    84. On balance, your Rapporteur would argue in favor of engaging in a serious discussion with
    NATO and national leadership to see if these numbers could be published in a meaningful way. They
    must at least be made more visible within NATO structures.
    85. A related question, raised during the discussion of the first report at 2018 Spring Session, was
    whether the Alliance should define specific budget levels for defense S&T and R&D to complement
    the Wales Investment Pledge. On this question, the answer was almost uniform: defining specific
    budget levels for defense S&T and R&D makes little sense. Your Rapporteur would agree.
    86. Most importantly, Allies have very different levels of ambition when it comes to defense
    S&T/R&D. Some nations see themselves as smart developers of military capabilities; others as
    smart specifiers who want to understand enough S&T to engage with industry in how to develop
    military capabilities; and a third category of nations see themselves as smart users and customers
    who will buy off the shelf but understand the deals industry can offer them. As the global leader, the
    United States will always spend much more on defense S&T/R&D than other Allies – not just in
    absolute numbers, but also as a percentage of its overall defense budget. At the lower bands of
    defense expenditure, however, the bandwidth to engage in serious defense S&T/R&D diminishes
    drastically. Some nations almost exclusively opt for off-the-shelf solutions.
    183 STC 18 E rev.1 fin
    18
    87. Setting a minimum level for all nations might also lead to a degradation of output in other areas.
    If a nation would argue that sending personnel into military operations rather than spending marginal
    dollars in defense S&T and R&D, would it be beneficial for the Alliance to force the nation? Setting
    specific targets could also reduce the flexibility to move resources to favor development,
    procurement, training, operations or other areas according to NATO needs and requirements. Also,
    a nation with a small GDP and therefore a small absolute defense budget should perhaps
    concentrate more on the acquisition of equipment developed by others rather than on developing its
    own equipment. Others pointed to the fact that reaching the 2% and 20% numbers is hard enough.
    In Europe, the European Defence Agency (EDA) has identified a 2% target for defense spending on
    Research and Technology (R&T). However, EDA nations are, in aggregate, at less than 1%. One
    interlocutor argued that defense S&T/R&D is less about certain targets and more about budget
    stability, given the long lead times in turning S&T into capabilities.
    V. CONCLUSION
    88. This report has underlined that Allied governments and parliaments must ensure that the
    Alliance stays ahead and maintains the S&T edge. The urgency of this strategic challenge is great.
    As US Congressman and former STC General Rapporteur Tom Marino wrote in 2017: “NATO’s
    technological edge is eroding. Therefore, to safeguard our freedom and shared values, strategic
    defense R&D policy decisions are necessary and urgent” (NATO PA, 2017b).
    89. To meet the challenge, it is essential, first, that Allies live up to the Wales Defence Investment
    Pledge and move towards spending a minimum of 2% of Gross Domestic Product on defense and
    more than 20% of defense budgets on major equipment, including related R&D. Your Rapporteur
    welcomes that Allies have committed themselves to delivering annual national plans which detail
    how they intend to meet the Defence Investment Pledge in three major areas: cash, capabilities, and
    contributions. Your Rapporteur laments the fact that these national plans will not be made public.
    Lawmakers and citizens of the Alliance need to know if NATO and the Allies are achieving their
    commitments and goals.
    90. Second, it is also essential that Allies adapt to the new S&T landscape at the national level, as
    business as usual is no longer viable. Your Rapporteur thus welcomes recent national initiatives to
    spur defense technological innovation, for example the new Defence Innovation Agency to be
    established in France.
    91. A third aspect to make NATO fit for purpose on defense S&T and R&D is to increase the added
    value of NATO. Your Rapporteur believes that much work needs to be done in this area. This report
    has laid out NATO’s role in maintaining the S&T edge and the NATO S&T community’s contribution
    to this effort. Your Rapporteur has laid out a range of concrete and realistic policy recommendations
    on how to advance NATO S&T and strengthen its contribution to maintaining NATO’s S&T edge.
    These recommendations form the basis of an STC Resolution to be adopted at the 2018 Annual
    Session. Your Rapporteur hopes that the Resolution will send a strong signal to NATO senior
    leadership as well as Allied governments and parliaments to get serious about defense S&T in the
    Alliance. In conclusion, the Committee should continue to closely follow NATO and national efforts
    to maintain the S&T edge and Alliance agility, keep Allies and NATO on their toes and stand ready
    to support them.
    183 STC 18 E rev.1 fin
    19
    SOURCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY
    Sources:
    The report draws extensively on publicly available information from NATO’s and NATO structures’
    websites; NATO PA and NATO briefings; STC visits; and informal and formal discussions with NATO
    S&T stakeholders (see Annex 1). For more information, please contact the Committee Director.
    Bibliography:
    CBInsights, Top AI Trends to Watch in 2018, 2018
    Dutta, Soumitra, Lanvin, Bruno and Wunsch-Vincent, Sacha (eds.), Global Innovation Index 2018,
    Cornell University, INSEAD & the World Intellectual Property Organization, 2018
    NATO PA, Maintaining NATO’s Technological Edge: Strategic Adaptation and Defence Research and
    Development, STC General Report [174 STC 17 E bis] presented by Tom Marino, 2017b
    NATO PA, Resolution 443 on Maintaining NATO’s Technological Edge, 2017a
    NATO, Warsaw Summit Communiqué, NATO, 2016
    183 STC 18 E rev.1 fin
    20
    ANNEX 1: LIST OF INTERVIEWS
    NATIONAL DELEGATIONS TO NATO HQ
    Vera ALEXANDER, Deputy Permanent Representative, Canada
    Lieutenant Colonel Beverly DE LALLO, Deputy Representative of the National Armaments Director, Canada
    Frank DESIT, Representative of the National Armaments Director, France
    NATIONAL MEMBERS OF THE NATO SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COMMUNITY
    Colonel Tim VAN LANGENHOVE, Director General, Royal Higher Institute for Defence, Belgium
    Steen SONDERGAARD, Chief of Defence Research & Test Centre, Danish Defence Acquisition and Logistics
    Organization, Denmark
    Kusti SALM, Director of the Defence Investments Department, Estonia
    Auke VENEMA, Director Research and Technology, Ministry of Defence, Netherlands
    John-Mikal STORDAL, Director General, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment, Norway
    Jon E. SKJERVOLD, Director Strategy and Policy, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment, Norway
    Stig LODOEN, Chief Scientist Norwegian Defence Research Establishment, Norway
    Bryan WELLS, Head of International and Strategic Research, Defence Science and Technology, United Kingdom
    Peter COLLINS, Director of Business Planning, Leonardo S.p.A., United Kingdom
    NATO HQ INTERNATIONAL STAFF
    Camille GRAND, Assistant Secretary General, Defence Investment Division
    Ernest J. HEROLD, former Deputy Assistant Secretary General, Defence Investment; former Co-Chair of the NATO
    Science and Technology Board
    Jonathan PARISH, Deputy Assistant Secretary General, Defence Policy and Planning Division
    Robert WEAVER, Deputy Assistant Secretary General, Emerging Security Challenges Division
    Graham EVANS, Deputy Director and Head, Defence Planning Directorate, Defence Policy and Planning Division
    NATO HQ INTERNATIONAL MILITARY STAFF
    Lieutenant General Jan BROEKS, Director General, International Military Staff
    NATO STRATEGIC COMMANDS
    Lieutenant General Jeffrey G. LOFGREN, Deputy Chief of Staff for Capability Development, Allied Command
    Transformation
    Vice Admiral Clive C.C. JOHNSTONE, CB CBE, Commander Allied Maritime Command, Allied Command
    Operations
    COMMITTEE OF THE CHIEFS OF MILITARY MEDICAL SERVICES
    Major General Jean-Robert BERNIER, Chair, Committee of the Chiefs of Military Medical Services
    Colonel Gerald ROTS, Liaison, Committee of the Chiefs of Military Medical Services
    NATO INDUSTRIAL ADVISORY GROUP
    John JANSEN, Chair, NATO Industrial Advisory Group
    Rudy PRIEM, Vice-Chair, NATO Industrial Advisory Group
    NATO SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ORGANISATION
    Thomas KILLION, NATO Chief Scientist and Chair of the NATO Science and Technology Board
    Pavel ZUNA, Director, NATO Collaborative Support Office
    Alan SHAFFER, nominee for US Deputy Undersecretary for Acquisition and Sustainment; former Director,
    Collaborative Support Office
    Catherine WARNER, Director, NATO Centre for Maritime Research and Experimentation
    Susanne WIRWILLE, Strategy and Policy Section, Office of the Chief Scientist
    Nico POS, Strategic Science and Technology Plans, Office of the Chief Scientist
    ________________
    SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COMMITTEE
    222 STC 18 E fin
    Original: English
    RESOLUTION
    on
    SAFEGUARDING ELECTIONS IN THE ALLIANCE*
    The Assembly,
    1. Concerned that Russia’s aggressive actions, including the threat and use of force as well as
    hybrid operations, are undermining Euro-Atlantic security and the rules-based international order;
    2. Recognising the overall strategic challenge of Russian cyber and information operations to
    Allied security;
    3. Recalling NATO’s founding principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law;
    4. Strongly stressing the need to preserve the institutions that make democracies strong,
    including freedom of the press, freedom of speech and free and fair elections;
    5. Unequivocally condemning any foreign attempts to undermine elections and other
    democratic processes, including referenda;
    6. Denouncing in the strongest terms Russia’s recent targeting of elections and referenda in
    Allied and partner countries as well as its broader attempts to destabilise democracies in Europe
    and North America;
    7. Convinced of the need to deter any foreign interference in elections and in any other type of
    democratic processes or, failing that, be prepared for and resilient against such interference by
    developing whole-of-government and whole-of-society approaches as well as national and
    international responses at every level, in all forums and through every channel;
    8. URGES member governments and parliaments of the North Atlantic Alliance:
    a. to conduct regular risk assessments of election infrastructure and remedy any identified gaps
    or vulnerabilities;
    b. to institutionalise pre-election processes against potential election interference;
    c. to consider mandating post-election security audits;
    d. to provide adequate funding and assistance to election bodies;
    e. to explore the possibility of designating election infrastructure as critical infrastructure;
    f. to outline real and credible consequences in case of foreign interference, for example through
    legal actions and sanctions;
    * Presented by the Science and Technology Committee and adopted by the Plenary Assembly on
    Monday 19 November 2018, in Halifax, Canada
    222 STC 18 E fin
    2
    g. to make use of the possibility of holding consultations under NATO’s Article 4 when applicable;
    h. to further develop public-private partnerships and outreach with civil society, private
    companies and media outlets concerning election interference;
    i. to encourage non-government institutions and organisations central to the democratic process,
    such as political parties and campaigns, to adopt increased cybersecurity measures, facilitated
    by government support if required;
    j. to develop better information-sharing procedures with the non-government sector on cyber
    and hybrid threats;
    k. to further develop cyber and hybrid defence and security strategies, policies and institutions at
    the national level, at NATO, the EU and beyond;
    l. to develop clear and actionable protocols and action plans as well as lines of authority and
    coordination at the national, regional and local levels to expedite responses in the event of
    election interference;
    m. to systematise and institutionalise cooperation on cyber and hybrid threats through the NATO-
    EU strategic partnership;
    n. to promote civic education and media literacy concerning the threat of foreign interference in
    democratic processes;
    o. to encourage greater transparency in the social media sector and reasonable access to social
    media data for independent researchers;
    p. to continue to explore if and how social media activity or companies could be regulated to
    guard against foreign interference in democratic processes;
    q. to explore how to increase the transparency of political advertising on social media and
    whether foreign-paid social media political advertising could be banned;
    r. to encourage conversations in the journalist community about standards of use for material of
    questionable sourcing as well as about the potential motives behind a source;
    s. to encourage and support independent fact-checking initiatives;
    t. to engage in public information campaigns about the threat of foreign election interference and
    instances of attempted or successful interference;
    u. to encourage increased research on cyber and information operations and develop effective
    tools, paying close attention to artificial intelligence, big data analytics and other emerging
    technologies.
    _______________
    SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COMMITTEE
    223 STC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    Original: English
    RESOLUTION 453
    on
    MAINTAINING THE SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY EDGE AND
    ENHANCING ALLIANCE AGILITY*
    The Assembly,
    1. Recognising that the Alliance finds itself in a new and dynamic strategic reality, marked by
    growing uncertainty, instability and risks;
    2. Facing an era of rapid technological change with a shifting science and technology (S&T)
    landscape and emerging technologies with the potential to disrupt the global strategic balance;
    3. Recalling NATO’s most staunch commitment to stand united to deter any potential aggression
    and, if deterrence fails, to collectively defend themselves;
    4. Underlining the critical importance of cutting-edge capabilities to meet NATO’s level of
    ambition and fulfil its core missions;
    5. Stressing that NATO’s unrivalled S&T edge is the lifeblood of current and future capabilities;
    6. Concerned that NATO’s S&T edge is eroding, resulting in increased risks for Alliance
    credibility and freedom of action;
    7. Emphasising that effective defence S&T relies on vigorous sustained investment and
    continuous organisational adaptation;
    8. Welcoming recent defence budget increases in the Alliance, but apprehensive about
    continued stagnation in defence S&T and research and development (R&D) budgets;
    9. Noting that NATO S&T is a critical enabler of maintaining the S&T edge in the Alliance, adding
    significant value to defence S&T in individual Allied nations, notably in burden sharing, capacity
    building, interoperability and standardisation;
    10. Highly valuing the crucial role played by the Science and Technology Organization (STO)
    and the other members of the NATO S&T Community;
    11. Applauding the significant strides in making NATO S&T more effective, affordable and
    coherent since the 2012 NATO S&T Reform;
    * Presented by the Science and Technology Committee and adopted by the Plenary Assembly on
    Monday 19 November 2018 in Halifax, Canada
    223 STC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    2
    12. Noting the highly productive interaction between the NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s
    Science and Technology Committee and the NATO S&T Community, notably through the Letters of
    Intent with the Chief Scientist and the NATO Industrial Advisory Group (NIAG) Chairman;
    13. Recognising the need for increased parliamentary S&T knowledge and expertise;
    14. URGES member Allied governments and parliaments of the North Atlantic Alliance and the
    NATO S&T Community:
    a. to redouble national efforts to reach the 2% benchmark for defence spending by 2024 as all
    Allies agreed at the 2014 Wales Summit and allocate at least 20% of their total defence
    spending toward new equipment purchases and research and development;
    b. to continue adaptation at the national and the NATO level to the changing strategic and S&T
    realities;
    c. to unleash the full potential of the NATO S&T community by a) improving NATO S&T’s military
    relevance, coherence, resource exploitation and synergies; b) making the NATO Defence
    Planning process a focal point; c) enhancing active, early and systematic engagement with all
    NATO S&T stakeholders, in particular with the military community and Defence industry; and
    d) increasing parliamentary engagement in national parliaments and through the NATO PA;
    d. to nurture a more diverse NATO S&T community by a) improving the age and gender balance
    in the NATO S&T expert network and b) developing new networks in emerging S&T areas;
    e. to enhance the agility of NATO S&T by a) developing a more strategic S&T approach and
    b) making available the highest quality scientists and engineers for NATO S&T; c) fostering an
    agile, innovative and risk-tolerant mindset through, inter alia, sharing best practices across the
    NATO S&T community; d) developing new policy tools to exploit emerging technologies;
    e) exploring financial tools for ‘seed money’ in support of technology demonstrations and rapid
    studies; f) developing an improved information management system, including at higher
    classification levels; and g) fostering communities of interest and boosting activities focused
    on autonomy, big data and artificial intelligence, and operations in contested urban
    environments;
    f. to demonstrate the value of S&T to the military community by a) increasing the quantity and
    quality of prototyping, demonstrations, tests and experimentation and b) elaborating better
    processes and tools to facilitate insertion of S&T into operational settings;
    g. to improve strategic engagement and communications by a) conveying meaningful, timely and
    targeted support and advice to NATO entities and leadership; and b) showcasing NATO S&T’s
    impact and importance to NATO entities and leadership;
    h. to reinforce the Science and Technology Organization by a) conducting a complete review of
    workload, requirements, manpower and organisation in light of the new strategic and S&T
    realities and increased demand for NATO S&T activities and b) conducting a thorough analysis
    of the organisational and financial model of the Centre for Maritime Research and
    Experimentation to make it fit for purpose at a time when NATO must strengthen its maritime
    capabilities;
    i. to evaluate NATO S&T on mission delivery by a) building on the 2018 NATO S&T Strategy,
    Priorities, Targets of Emphasis and the NATO Defence Planning Process and b) regularly
    analysing NATO S&T programmes of work to identify gaps and improve programme health;
    223 STC 18 E rev. 1 fin
    3
    j. to increase transparency on defence S&T and R&D investment trends by a) making these
    trends more visible among Allies and NATO entities at the classified level and b) engaging in
    a serious discussion on publicly publishing statistics on Allied defence S&T and R&D spending.
    ______________